1/19/16 quiz starting next week, materials on slides

1st half is conventional and 2nd half on renewable energy

Energy is capacity to do work, power is the rate of doing work
Quad-10^15 quadrillion BTU like EJ 10^18 J, total demand and renewable demand
changes constant so share of renewable remains constant. Amount of oil will
increase though share decreases, natural gas share remains constant , Coal share
increases slightly, nuclear share will increase very minimally, renewable share will
increase minimally.
500 quad=1500 trillion kettle of water=250000 per person per year, 1million per
American, which is 4 times more than Europe. 90% is conventional,
More of Biomass is due to burning wood, energy global growth is in correlation with
population and GDP.
Precedence, wood, coal, petroleum > natural gas for heating homes.
Efficiency gains after oil crisis of 1973, investment in north sea, and research into
efficiency improvement, took power from OPEC cartel,
Hydroelectric flattens out due to limitation of sites. Coal going down due to
increase in natural gas. Nuclear growth is limited by safety concerns and accidents.
Growth in all energy segments, reduce growth due to economic decline with the
exception of coal.
Bulk of renewable is hydroelectric, Biofuel is growing by mandate in petroleum, wind
power has grown significantly(viable off shore). 50% is offshore Britain 25% is
Denmark. Waste is 0.5% of renewable. Lot more burn in Europe due to lack of land
for landfill. Solar is 0.2%.
Production is increasing due to shale and drilling. Coal is part of export but not
crude oil until very recently. Diesel and finished product made up most of export.
50-60 dollars is most viable for shale. 30 dollars and go lower due to Iran.
Production of coal is decreasing, natural gas is increasing.
Are we running out? Price of oil makes it impractically compared to electric so it
probably would not go dry.
proved reserves can be recovered under existing economic and operating
conditions with reasonable certainty. Tight rules on how this is done.
Coal Res/prod(years) 250 years in Us, 120 years globally
Gas, 60 years
Oil, 48 years
Uranium 100 years(2000 years with reprocessing)
This is contingent upon the price of energy and technology.
hubbert's peak says that we will run out of in year 2000, did not take into account
tech improvements.
How much more gas?
Shale Gas: global shale resource 456 trillion cubic meter 40 % can be recovered
about 182(tcm) shale adds 60 years for a total of 120 years of gas.
Methane hydrates, not easy to recover. 20,000 tcm 20 times more powerful than
carbon dioxide as greenhouse gas.
Harvard strategists says about 150 years of oil
We have coal gas oil and uranium for well over 100 years, so not running out,
problem is how not to waste it and use it in a manner that does not endanger the
environment.
2. Sustainability
2 billion people have little access to commercial energy.

Primary energy use per person rank, north America, Eurasia, middle east, Europe, S
and central America, Asia pacific then Africa. 550EJ in 2011, it could be 1300 EJ in
2050
Primary energy growing countries, china 8.3%, India 5.1%, Brazil 4.2% energy
intensity is energy per GDP. Developed country energy intensity is actually
decreasing.
Safe: improved through regulation, result of accidents, Hoover dam most dangerous
in term of fatality during construction, 2 order more dangerous than coal(mining,
respiratory use, particulate load in air, death is declining due to MSHA and OSHA),
nuclear is by far most safe.
Clean? Pollution incident led to regulation, UK clean air act 1956, smog 1952,
Main pollution concerns, air particulate, water contamination, radiation releases,
Torrey Canyon oil tanker spill, Cornwall UK 1967, improved to double hull
containment.
Sustainability first used in Our Common Future, meeting the needs of present
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.
In terms of energy meaning not harnessing energy that is close to depletion, the
use of which does not entail the emission of pollutants or other hazards to the
environment on a substantial scale.
Use of which does not cause the perpetuation of health hazards or social injustice.
Sustainability is relative rather than absolute.
Availability 365/24
IPCC think that major issue is the effect of greenhouse gases on temperature and
climate. Reaching 400 parts per million. The issue is highly politicized. Rise in
temperature correlates with increase in CO2 emission. pH in ocean is going down
due to carbon dioxide content in the ocean.
Reduction of arctic ice and the albedo effect that comes with it. Sea level change.
Greenhouse gas effect: infrared radiation from the earth is absorbed by greenhouse
gases and reradiated warming atmosphere and the surface. Without this the
temperature of the earth would have been -2F instead of 57F. Adding GHGs is
increasing the infrared radiation absorption and the temperature.