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13 EXPLAINED
THE INDIAN EXPRESS, THURSDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016

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Why winter has arrived late, why the cold will last
A southward shift of two wind systems has allowed the Westerlies to penetrate into the Indian landmass. AMITABH SINHA explains how
WINTER HAS finally set in, at least six weeks
later than normal. And now that it is here, it
is expected to stay a while. Scientists say
when winters set in late, they usually linger
for longer. They also say that February this
year is likely to be colder than it usually is.
For all of December and the first two
weeksof January,temperaturesinmostparts
of India were substantially higher than normal. In some places, the departures were as
much as 5-8 degrees more than normal.
Besides, the small amount of rainfall that
takes place in late December and early
January, which brings the chill in the air, was
almost absent. Winter rainfall in the country as a whole at the start of the year was
about 85 per cent below normal.

El Nio in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that

is now being counted amongst the strongest
in the last 60 years, and the abnormal location of two wind systems a sub-tropical
anti-cyclonic formation and the Jetstreams.
Thesewindsystemswerebothlocatednorth
of their normal positions for this time of the
year, and were in effect blocking the entry of
the cold Westerlies from Europe into the
Indian region.
The Westerlies move in the mid-latitudes, between 30 and 60 degrees, in the
northern hemisphere in the west to east direction. These winds move slightly southward during winter, and flow across most of
northern and central India, bringing in not
just chill, but also rainfall.

What happened

What has changed

Scientists attributed the warmer than

usual temperatures in December and
January to two main factors: the prevailing

There has been no change in the El Nio

situation in the last two weeks. El Nio,
which refers to an unusual warming of sea

How important is
the tribal vote in
Assams election?
SAMUDRA GUPTA KASHYAP gives the background
of the PMs promise of ST status to Karbis and Bodos
ONTUESDAY,PrimeMinisterNarendraModi
announced ST status to Karbis living in the
plains and Bodos living in the two hill districts of Assam. The announcement was
probablyinfluencedbytheassessmentof the
BJPs ally Bodo Peoples Front (BPF) which
has control over 12 constituencies that the
alliescouldalsogetBodovotes,rangingfrom
5,000 to 30,000, in 50 other constituencies.
ThePMwas,however,silentontheBJPs2014
Lok Sabha election promise of granting
Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to six other communities a long pending issue in Assam.
People of these six communities had voted
overwhelmingly for the BJP in 2014.
How is the tribal vote spread?
According to Census 2001, STs are 12.41%
of Assams population. Fifteen of the states
126 assembly seats are reserved for STs. Four
of these are in Karbi Anglong district, and are
always represented by the Karbi
tribe. One is in Dima Hasao district (represented by the Dimasa
tribe), and three are in Upper
Assam (represented traditionally
by the Mising tribe). Of the remaining seven, one was traditionally represented by the Rabha tribe, but was won by a
Boro in 2011. The other six are in the
Bodolandautonomousdistricts,andhavealways been with the Bodos. The BPF, which
had been backing the Congress since 2006
but switched sides to the BJP last week, also
won five unreserved seats in 2011.
As per the Census, Bodos are 40.9% of the
ST population, Mising 17.8%, Karbi 10.7%,
Rabha8.4%,SonowalandotherKacharis7.1%,
Lalung/Tiwa 5.2%, Dimasa 3.4% and Deori
1.2%. If six more communities are given ST
status, close to 50 per cent of the states population will become ST.
Lists of ST communities are different for
the two autonomous hill districts (Karbi
AnglongandDimaHasao)andtherestof the
state (plains districts). Fourteen communities currently enjoy ST status in the plains
districts; 15 in the autonomous hill districts.

Assam in the 13th-16th centuries with their

capital at Sadiya. The Ahoms ruled for nearly
six centuries until 1826; the KochRajbangshis for about 400 years. The Moran
and Chutia have roots in the great BodoKachari race. The Tea tribes are people from
Chhotanagpurandadjoiningareaswhowere
brought to Assam by the British in the 19th
century to work in tea plantations.
Where do parties stand on the demand?
All major parties, including the Congress,
BJP, AGP, AIUDF, CPI and CPM, back it. The
Congress manifesto in 2011 said the partys
government in the state had moved the
Centre for granting ST status to these communities in 2002, but had been thwarted by
theBJP-ledCentre.TheBJPtoohadpromised
ST status to the communities in its 2014 Lok
Sabha manifesto. In 2004, the Assam assembly unanimously adopted a resolution to
press the Centre to include these
communities in the states ST list.

SIMPLY
PUT

Who are seeking ST status?

The Ahom, Chutia, Koch-Rajbangshi,
Moran, Matak, and Tea, who are currently in
the list of OBCs. The Chutias ruled eastern

How will conceding the

demand affect the existing ST
communities?
The two most prominent ST communities Bodos and Rabhas are strongly opposed. Bodos fear they would not win even
one of the reserved seats, and most seats reserved for STs in engineering, medical and
other colleges would go to the Ahom, Matak,
Moran, Chutia and Koch-Rajbangshis because they are intellectually and economically better off.
So, what is the latest official position?
In February 2014, the UPA government
constituted a task force comprising the
Secretaries of Tribal Affairs, Culture, Social
JusticeandLawtoprepareasetof modalities
for granting ST status to these communities.
In June 2014, the task force sent out letters to
multiplestakeholdersseekingcomments.On
August 6, 2015, a delegation of the six communities met the union Ministers for Tribal
AffairsandHome,followingwhichtheTribal
Affairs Ministry sought fresh opinion from
state governments on October 1, 2015. This
week,thePMtoldadelegationof thesecommunities that he would convene a meeting
before the end of this month.

DAILY TEMPERATURES
IN DELHI
JANUARY

MAX

MIN

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

23.0
24.5
24.0
22.6
18.4
16.0
18.7
19.0
18.4
15.0

5.4
6.0
10.4
11.4
8.4
9.1
7.3
2.7
7.4
7.6

IndegreesCelsius.Source:Agromet
Observatory,DivisionofAgricultural
Physics,IARI,NewDelhi

watersintheequatorialPacificOcean,off the
coast of Ecuador and Peru in South America,
influences weather patterns across the
world.InIndia,itisgenerallyassociatedwith
suppressed rainfall in the monsoon season.
But past data also show that the winter in
India following an El Nio is slightly warmer
than usual. Since the current El Nio has
been exceptionally long and strong, scientists were seeing this as one of the reasons
for the warmer winter in India.
Butwhathasledtothechangeinweather
in India over the last one week has been the
movement of the two wind systems, subtropical anti-cyclone and Jetstreams, from
where they had been located. Both of them
have moved southward, allowing the
Westerlies to penetrate the Indian region. As
in every other season, the arrival of the
Westerlies in northern India has been accompanied by a drop in temperature and
some rain. The overall deficiency in winter

rainfall over the country has a whole

dropped to 74 per cent last week.
The drop in temperature has also been
significant. Minimum temperatures across
the country started getting aligned to their
normal values around January 9, and have
remained so since then. The maximum temperature started becoming normal a couple
of days later. In fact, the maximum temperatures are now 5-8 degree below normal in
some places of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Assam and
Meghalaya. At some other places they are 24 degree below normal. But at many other
places, in Jammu and Kashmir, Andaman
and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu and Kerala,
they happen to be higher than normal as
well.
While this winter has been unusually
warm, scientists say this is not the first time
that it has set in so late. The blocking of the
Westerlies by anti-cyclonic winds and

Jetstreams has happened on earlier occasions as well. Both these wind systems, otherwise independent phenomena, are influenced by the thermal gradient that exists
between the equator and the northern latitudes. Scientists say the temperature difference over two latitudes is more pronounced
in winter than in summer. The temperature
difference between Delhi and Moscow, for
example,ishigherinwinterthaninsummer.
This thermal gradient influences wind patterns across the globe.
A weaker thermal gradient, as was the
casethisyear,leadstonorthwardmovement
of the sub-tropical anti-cyclonic wind system that is generally located south of the
IndianpeninsulaaroundDecember-January.
It also gives rise to a shift in the location of
the Jetstreams. The movement of these two
systemsawayfromtheirabnormalpositions
has coincided with the strengthening of the
thermal gradient.

Punjabs fatal obsession

20 Punjab youths allegedly missing off Panama add to a sad, long list of victims of attempted illegal
migration to the West. What is this phenomenon, and why does it occur so frequently?
ANJU AGNIHOTRI CHABA recounts the story of missing youths and real tragedies
SOME 20 youths from Punjab are reported
tohavedrownedafteraboatfullof illegalmigrants apparently trying to get to the US capsized off the Panamanian-Colombian coast
earlier this month. 10 days after the reported
tragedy, next to nothing is known of the circumstances of the drownings. An apparent
survivor, one Sonu of Bhogpur in Jalandhar,
had rung up his wife and father to tell them
that two youths with him on the boat
Gurjeet Singh and Gurwinder Singh of
Kapurthala had drowned. Sonu has not
contacted anyone since, and his whereabouts are not known. There is no official
word from the government of Panama,
Colombia, or any other country. The Punjab
Police have arrested two travel agents allegedly involved in sending the youths out
of the country, and Deputy Chief Minister
Sukhbir Singh Badal this week urged Prime
MinisterNarendra Modi andExternalAffairs
Minister Sushma Swaraj to send a team to
the US to find out more.
The anxiety and confusion in several districts of Punjab has been heightened by
memories of earlier tragedies in which
youths from the state have disappeared or
diedwhileattemptingtomakeanillegalpassage to the West. The worst of these by far
wastheMaltaboattragedyof 1996,inwhich
283 illegal emigrants, a significant chunk of
whom were from Punjab, were drowned in
the Mediterranean. At least three other disasters followed, before the latest incident off
central America.
And yet, youths from Punjab seem powerless to resist the lure of a life in a developed
country abroad. Reasons include dollar
dreams and the lack of jobs at home, along
withthedesiretoemulateneighboursseemingly enriched beyond belief after escaping
to the West. From the four Doaba districts
Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, Kapurthala and
Nawanshahr some 6 million are settled
abroad, and there is hardly a family here that
does not have at least one member overseas.
Unscrupulous travel agents in virtually
every village assure gullible youths that the
absence of skills or documents would not
stand in the way of emigrating. The youths
are usually taken to Europe via African countries and to the US through South American
or Central American countries, with the help
of local human trafficking agents.

Malta, 1996
On the night of Christmas, 283 illegal migrants drowned off Malta while they were

A survivor of the Malta boat tragedy along with relatives of some of the dead in Punjab in 2007. Express Archive
beingtransferredfromavesselcalledYioham
to a smaller boat. Some 170 of the dead were
from Punjab; the rest were mainly from
BangladeshandSriLanka.Themigrantswere
trying to enter Italy illegally. Most of the
Indians were men in their early 20s from the
Doaba; a few were from Amritsar, Ropar,
Gurdaspur and Sangrur. The case against 29
travel agents accused of sending the youths
abroad remains pending; 9 of the accused
are now dead. As are several of those who
lost their sons or other relatives and were
awaiting justice.

Greece, 2002
Some 17 youths, again from the districts
of Jalandhar, Nawanshahr and Kapurthala,
went missing in the eastern Mediterranean
off thecoastof TurkeyonApril18,apparently
while trying to reach Greece. Police registered a case, and two travel agents, one from
Nawanshahr and the other from Delhi, were
picked up.

Spain, 2004
In December, 37 youths, mostly from
Kapurthala, Nawanshahr, Hoshiarpur and
Jalandhar districts, went missing en route to
Spain. Some of the families have reconciled

themselves to the possibility of their having

drowned; the rest continue to wait for word
from them. Following some information in
2011 that the youths were captive in a west
African country, the Punjab Police took up
thecase,andthegovernmentcollectedblood
samples for a DNA test should the missing
individuals be located. But the leads led
nowhere. The families of each of the missing
youths had paid Rs 6-7 lakh to travel agents.
Most of the youths were from
Kapurthala, Nawanshahr, Hoshiarpur and
Jalandhar districts, and between 18 and 25
years of age. The last time any of the families
heard from them was in the first week of
January 2005.
Rattan Singh of Begowal in Kapurthala
districtsaidhissonAmandeepSinghwasjust
17 when he left for Spain in December 2004
along with 36 other youths. We filed a case
against the agent, and he was jailed. But he
got bail and is now free. The police have not
told us what they have done in the case till
date, Rattan Singh said.
Nirmal Kaur of Padhas, not far from
Begowal, said her son Lakhwinder was 19
when he left for Spain dreaming of a better
future. His fatherhasa heartconditionnow.
Neither the government nor the agent, to

whom we gave Rs 7 lakh after taking a loan,

has told us anything, she said.
Jarnail Singh, father of Charanjit Singh,
23, of Mehandpur village in Nawanshahr,
said some travel agents had told him the
youths had drowned while crossing the
Mediterranean to Spain from Morocco.
Sucha Singh of Thigli village in
Kapurthala, whose brother Vijay was among
those who travelled to Spain, said: In 2011
we heard that 35 Punjabi youths were in the
captivity of someone called Mohammad in
Mauritania, who had a score to settle with
the agents in Punjab.
In 2011, Punjab and Haryana High Court
intervened. Advocate Anil Malhotra, whom
thecourtappointedamicuscuriae,suggested
that a Punjab Police team visit Mauritania.
Notmuchhasbeendone,however,Malhotra
said.

Mexico, 2010
Eleven youths were said to have gone
missing in Mexico near its border with the
US in 2010. The family of each man had allegedly paid Rs 20 lakh to a Delhi-based
agent. They allege both the police and the
state government have been unresponsive
to their complaints.

EXPRESS ECONOMIC HISTORY SERIES

The IT story: reasons to celebrate, lessons to remember

IN FACT

by Shaji Vikraman
express editors interpret
IN MAY 1998, soon after the NDA came to
power, Atal Bihari Vajpayees PMO notified
the constitution of a National Task Force on
Information Technology and Software
Development headed by the Deputy
Chairman of the Planning Commission,
Jaswant Singh.
There was much excitement then about
Indias IT industry and software services
firms. Some of these firms were promoted
by first-generation engineers and entrepreneurs who had, with their skill, abilities and
outlook, cracked overseas markets. Their
earnings, much of which was in foreign exchange, were boosting the national income

and creating jobs for young people.

Recognisingthepotential,thePMOaskedthe
committee to draw up a blueprint to help
India emerge as an IT superpower over the
next 10 years.
Work had by then started on the governments first Budget, which Finance Minister
Yashwant Sinha presented on June 1. During
the break after the Budget and before the
Finance Bill was approved, the Task Force
which had big IT names such as Narayana
Murthyof Infosys,AshokSootaof Wipro,and
Nasscom president Dewang Mehta, and the
go-gettingChief Ministerof AndhraPradesh,
ChandrababuNaidurecommendeda108point programme.
The just-presented Budget had referred
to stock options for IT firms linked to the issue of capital abroad. In the final amendments to the Finance Bill, tax incentives for
the industry recommended by the Task
Force were incorporated, an unusual occurrence that reflected the governments
perception of, and policy support to, the potential of the Indian IT industry. A major
kicker then was a 10-year tax holiday for
Software Technology Parks of India (STPI),
which were first promoted in 1991 by the P
V Narasimha Rao government.
Indias manufacturing sector had not yet

recovered from the overhang of the huge capacity expansion drive of a few years earlier,
and was weighed down by high interest
rates. The after-effects of the Asian currency
crisis were still being felt, and global economic growth had not picked up. It helped
that opportunities came in the form of ordersforIndianfirmsbecauseof theY2Kchallenge in 1999-00. Indias top software services firms were wooed by overseas investors
keenonbuyingintothenewagesuccessstories. Rules framed for brick and mortar firms
in India didnt suit these new companies,
whose markets and investors were predominantly overseas.
When the question of seeking approvals
from the RBI and government for buying
firms overseas arose, Infosys CFO T V
Mohandas Pai went to meet Governor Bimal
Jalan in the central banks office in Mumbai
in 1999-2000. At a time when securing an
approval for even $ 500 million was tough,

Pai told Jalan that his company wanted an

approval to acquire overseas companies of
up to $ 10 billion. Jalan laughed and told Pai,
Mohan, if you jump from this floor, you will
flytoBangalore,butIhavetolookaftertheinterests of UP, Bihar and other states.
Of course, Pai, along with colleague V
Balakrishnan,wholaterbecameInfosysCFO,
tried to convince him and officials in the
Ministry of Finance of the need for a
changeinpolicy.Itdidworkultimatelyand
the government and RBI soon afterward
backed the raising of the acquisition limit to
10 times the net worth of the company.
As the industry notched up impressive
successes, changes in policy became easier
and were helped along by the presence of
industry leaders such as Murthy, Nandan
Nilekani and Azim Premji. Tax breaks including lower import duties and funds for
innovation followed in subsequent Budgets.
Pramod Mahajan, Vajpayees IT and

SUGGESTED READING
Report of the National Task Force on Information Technology and Software
Development, 1998
Budgets 1999-2000, 2000-01

Communications Minister between 2001

and 2003, was an energetic believer in the
potential of IT it seemed, indeed, that the
industry couldnt put a step wrong.
InJanuary2001,Vajpayeewaspersuaded
by his senior colleague and Deputy Prime
Minister, L K Advani, to visit the Infosys campus.ThePM,alwaysthebig-pictureman,told
his audience that earlier, overseas visitors
wouldntreturnsatisfiedwithoutgoingtothe
TajMahalthesedays,theywerentsatisfied
withoutvisitingthewonderof modernIndia,
theITcentresof Bangalore.Headded,inclassic Vajpayee style, that the IT wonder represented the happy confluence of Saraswati,
LakshmiandShaktireferringtotheknowledge economy that had the potential to create millions of jobs, and to the first-generation entrepreneurs who had created wealth,
unleashed a new energy among young middle-classIndians,andearnedglobalacknowledgment of Indias software capabilities.
The fuss about IT did getto the big boys in
the manufacturing sector. One of Indias top
industrialists, long used to influencing policy, was miffed enough to tell a junior official
on a trip to the Finance Ministry that compared to the size of some of the IT firms, the
boundary wall of his production unit was
more valuable! The image transformation

and wealth creation by the IT firms had been

followedbyimprovementsincorporategovernance, which helped attract foreign fund
flows and what got this industrialist and
others in the manufacturing sector hot under the collar were the subtle hints from
overseasexchangesandinvestorstocleanup
their books and improve governance.
What is happening now with policy and
statesupportforstart-upshasparallelsinthe
IT industry from a decade and a half ago.
Indian IT is now a $ 160 billion industry, with
$ 100 billion worth of exports and employing 4 million individuals directly. Last year,
5,000 start-ups rolled, and the segment is
nowvaluedat $75billion.FortheITindustry,
policymakers had a 10-year vision; it would
be interesting to see if a similar sucesss story
unfolds with todays start-ups. If that does
happen,itcouldthengenerate$500billionof
value and hundreds of jobs, and herald the
emergenceof anewgenerationof youngentrepreneurs.

shaji.vikraman@expressindia.com
For earlier articles in this series, visit the
authors microsite on The Indian Express
web site, http://indianexpress.com/
profile/author/shaji-vikraman/