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2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016
Fed

2016G20

OPEC

ECBBOJ

TPP

TTIP

2016

2016

2016

2016

Fed

Fed

FedECBQE

2016

2016
()

(%)

2.4

1.6

0.8

6.6

2.1

CPI(%)

2.0

1.1

0.7

2.0

0.8

(%)
2016

1.5

0.05

0~0.1

4.1

1.75

1.08

126.5

6.35

33.5

2016

2016
()

(%)

1.6

1.0

0.4

6.0

1.2

CPI(%)

1.4

0.6

0.2

1.6

0.4

(%)
2016

1.0

0.05

0~0.1

3.85

1.50

1.0

130.0

6.63

34.3

2016

2016
()

(%)

2.7

1.8

1.1

6.8

2.4

CPI(%)

2.2

1.4

1.0

2.5

1.4

(%)
2016

2.0

0.05

0~0.1

4.35

1.875

1.15

120.0

6.25

32.6

10

2016

11

2016

120
106
92
73
58
37

45

39

36
24
12

NBER

12

77

2016

2016

2016

()

2016

3.75%
3.00%

1.50%

bloomberg

2016

2 GDP

GDP

bloomberg

2016

bloomberg

2016

2 (CRB)

CRB

60

CRB (Commodity Research Bureau)


bloomberg

2016

(ex Jpn)

2014

1,161

150

127

-88

-44

-60

2015

-1,247

1,132

549

-217

-307

-64

2014

1,319

842

-56

2015

677

160

26
201510/28

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

2016

4 MSCI

MSCI (+9.95)

10

MSCI (+8.67)

MSCI (+1.03)

- MSCI (-7.85)
10

MSCI (-26.42)
10
bloomberg

2016

bloomberg

2016

1 2016
2015

2016

4.0%

4.5%

6.5%

6.4%

-0.3%

0.8%

6.8%

6.3%

1.6%

7.3%

7.5%

1.2%

1.5%

-3.8%

-0.6%

0.6%

1.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

2015

2016

3.1%

3.6%

2015

2016

2.0%

2.2%

2.6%

2.8%

1.5%

1.6%

1.5%

IMF (2015/10)

10

2016

2 GDPvs(CRB)

CRB

GDP

bloomberg

11

2016

3 GDP(2014)

68.5%

16.4%

18.2%

-3.1%

100%

55.0%

19.6%

21.1%

4.3%

100%

60.1%

16.7%

20.8%

2.4%

100%

37.9%

45.9%

13.5%

2.7%

100%

53.2%

17.4%

18.9%

10.5%

100%

Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Dept. of Commerce)

12

2016

4 -

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

338

607

501

797

1,124

956

1,062

935

52%

56%

65%

61%

61%

61%

66%

66%

88

99

85

130

153

169

195

216

24%

26%

28%

28%

29%

33%

35%

40%

10

16

13

21

19

38

21

30%

37%

30%

41%

51%

48%

65%

46%

24

21

11

19

49

52

51

46

49%

51%

54%

54%

70%

76%

78%

76%

UNcomtrade (2014)

13

2016

5 -

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

799

1,293

893

1,353

1,968

2,208

2,197

2,283

7%

8%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

16%

31

29

34

64

134

202

247

302

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

7%

UNcomtrade (2014)

14

2016

6
2016

(Energy Information AdministrationEIA)

15

2016

+
26.6%

11.5%

15.5%
+
69.5%
+
29.0%
+
27.2%

27.5%

25.0%
+
11.2%
+
10.5%

4.1%

9.9%

9.5%

21.9%

5.6%

10.3%

7.7%

2.4%

2.7%

4.3%

3.8%

2.2%

4.3%

7.4%

1.1%

2.6%

2.3%

3.0%

2.2%

4.2%

4.8%

1.1%

1.5%

1.7%

2.4%

UNcontrade(2014)

16

2016

8 2016

250
200
150
100
50

bloomberg

17

2016

9 2016
()

bloomberg

18

2016

10 2016
Euro

Yen

bloomberg

19

2016

11 2016
Australian Dollar

Real

Rand

Rouble

bloomberg

20

2016

12 2016

1.
2.

1.--
2.
3.
4.

1. --
2.
3.
4.
21

2016

13 2016

FED

22

2016

14 2016


23

2016

2016


-
-

24

2016

GDP2016
1IMFGDP

IMFGDP YoY%
YoY%

YoY%
()

bloomberg(2015/09/30)

GDP2016

YoY%

2016

2016
2

%()

bloomberg(2015/10/30)

2016

GDP
34GDP()

5,000

800

4,000

3,000

57%

48%

2,000
1,000
0

43%
46%
10%

43%
9%

480
320
160

(1996-2000)

(2001-2005)

(2006-2011)

(2011-2015E)

(2016-2020F)

()

158

297

677

1,429

()

196

326

723

1,294

()

72

91

157

261

8.60

9.76

11.25

7.81

6.5

()

31

35

199

()

48

54

327

627

GDP%

640

Wind(2015/09/30)bloombergIMF(2015GDPIMF)

GDP
GDP

2016

bloomberg(2015/10/30)

()

2016

MSCI
5
99

MSCI

96

(%)

CMoney(2015/10/20)

20162
MSCI10%3.9

2016

2016GDPPBR
62000GDP

GDP%()

%
IMFbloomberg(2015/10/30)

PBR=1.84~2.78
201648003200

2016

4000%

3000%

2995%

2000%

3808%

3507%
2527%

2310% 2054%

1875% 1654%

1369%

1000%
0%

1200%
800%

1146%
876%

746%

542%

400%

531%

445%

666%

524%

505%

0%

Wind

2016

2016
8

(2016 ~2020 )

( + )

( )

()

( )

()

( )

GDP6.5%GDP802010

2016

2016

92000GDP

%()

(20152016GDP)

GDP

10

2016

GDP45%

22.4%
23%

TTIP (
)

2014

187

300
GDP29%

0.6

19.2
10

TPP

RCEP

40

(
)

12

()
()

QUARTZCmoneyBloomberg

11

TPP 12
24
12.3

GDP 36%

28.3
8

2016

2016
102000GDP

GDP%()

(20152016GDP)Cmoney(2015/10/30)

GDP
201692007600

12

2016

112000

Cmoney

13

2016

2016

()

F
F

()Apple()

14

2016

ETF
122014ETF

ETF()
()

ETF()
AETF%

CMoney(2015/10/30)

ETF5%~10%

15

2016

()
1.
2.

(98049)

:110810

16

:02-27815995

2016

2016

60

2016

1026021.8760
25.86

60

2016

107

10365281107344
114

(103150)(103/8)

2016

1506541.0%
65

(103150)(103/8)

2016

VS.

2016

85(48.59%)
7.3(6.48.2)

65

2016

2 VS.

990.9 (1)103
1.17(3)
111
2,355.9

(103150)(103/8)
CIA(2014)The world Factbook 1=(15-49)

2016

3
3010335.4%
30-39(83.7%)

30

30(103)

=++

10

2016

4/

10311.9%17.9%
103

29.8%

(2013)103

11

2016

4/

103
55~64 985.0%1025.6%17.4%18.3%
65 989.2%10211.1%18.8%20.6%

12

2016

VS.

13

2016

104

104

10312

1047349

10312938

14

2016

15

2016

ML

12%
75.3
(13%)

20%
31
(5%)
30%
9.7
(2%)
40%
3.7
(0.6%)

_101
_102

16

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

1.
2.

()

1.
2.
3.
4.

1.
2.
3.
4.

1.
2.
3.
4.()

2016

2016

10

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