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29115053
RESUME CHAPTER 9
BIASES IN PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
Many decisions arebasedonbeliefs concerningthelikelihoodof
uncertaineventssuchastheoutcomeofanelection,theguiltofa
defendant.Thesebeliefs are usuallyexpressed instatementssuch
as"Ithinkthat...,""chancesare ...,""itisunlikelythat
. . . ," and so forth. This raises the question, how good are
peopleatestimatingprobabilities?Overthepast30yearsorso,
thisquestionhasbeenthesubjectofagreatdealofresearchby
psychologistsandinthischapterwewilllookattheresultsof
theirwork.
MILA MUJAADILAH
29115053
by
MILA MUJAADILAH
29115053
MILA MUJAADILAH
29115053