21st April 2015

Jack Usher U6M2

Cold War Analysis

What were the causes of the Cold War?
Orthodox school; aggressive and expansionist foreign policy of Stalinist
USSR.
Revisionist school; protective actions of the USA, vying for European
economic dominance.
Post-revisionist school; move away from a mono-causal analysis, looking
at range of factors.
Inherent ideological tensions (sown in the conflict between Bolshevik
Revolution in 1917 and prevalent Wilsonian liberalism).
Why did the Cold War not develop before 1945?
o US advocacy of isolation, USSRs post-war recovery, Stalins aims of
domestic industrialisation
o Second World War; necessity formed an alliance between USSR and
the West.
Legacy of Second World War; European power vacuum (which both
powers determined not to let be dominated by the other), need for
European economic and infrastructural reconstruction, growing mutual
suspicion (especially from the use of atomic warfare, reluctance of Allies
to open a second from until 1944, intervention of Allies in the Russian
Civil War), creation of a new world order.
Competing visions of the USA and USSR for post-war Europe; form of
government to be encouraged in new nations, position of Germany,
economic reconstruction. Both wish to exert their influence.
Role of personality; Roosevelt had been able to establish an effective
professional relationship with Stalin, but replaced by Truman in 1945
with his iron fist approach, Stalins personal suspicions and fear
rendering a mutual, effective, agreement impossible.
Stalins foreign policy; at Yalta and Potsdam Soviet territorial demands
made, 1945-48 Communist regimes established across Eastern Europe,
extension of sphere of influence (but sticking point over Berlin),
aggressive move of Berlin Blockade (1948-9), Comecon, Cominform.
USAs foreign policy; Trumans adoption of an aggressive stance in 1945,
Kennans fears in the Long Telegram, protection of capitalisms economic
interests, Trumans failure to inform Stalin of atomic bomb, lack of
negotiation, Churchills 1946 Iron Curtain speech, Truman Doctrine
(especially in Greece), Marshall Plan, formation of NATO in 1949. Move
away from isolationism to intervention; shows argument that
Soviet foreign policy was a response of US aggression.
What were Stalins motives for Soviet expansion in Europe?
From 1917, two distinct motives of Soviet foreign policy; to spread world
revolution, and to ensure the survival of the new communist state against
hostile neighbours.
However, the USSR was vulnerable; communist revolutions had failed in
Germany and Hungary.
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Jack Usher U6M2

1920; adoption of conventional foreign policy aimed at defence, West

didnt recognise this.
o Why? The aim of world revolution had not been wholly abandoned
in the face of Socialism in One Country, formation of Comintern in
1919, Red Armys occupation of swathes of Eastern Europe postWWII, imposition of Communist governments in Greece and
Czechoslovakia, concept of totalitarianism.
So, extension of Soviet control is Eastern Europe was defensive; move to
create a buffer zone.
o Exacerbated by extent of Soviet losses in WWII; more than 20
million deaths.
Stalin was amendable to the idea of coalition governments in Eastern
Europe in 1945, but by 1947 he insisted on pro-Soviet governments on
the Stalinist model (a response to more hard-line US foreign policy).
Soviet control over Eastern Europe was the result of, not the motive of
Stalins policy to guarantee Soviet security.
Stalin also realised the weak position of the USSR by 1945; economic and
social legacy of WWII.
o War must be avoided; the USA would most likely be victorious with
its superior military might and nuclear monopoly.
But, if Soviet policy was only a response, it remains provocative in
nature.

Why did East-West relations change between 1948 and 1962?

By 1948, Cold War European divisions firmly in place between East and
West, in military, political and economic terms.
Changes 1948-55; development of globalism (conflict between capitalist
West and communist East extended to Korea and Vietnam; fear of others
domination), the nuclear arms race (US nuclear monopoly ended in 49,
hydrogen bombs in production by 1955), the thaw (increasingly
successful attempts to establish an East-West dialogue).
Tensions 1948-55; the German problem, rise of Communism in the Far
East, European decolonisation (major powers lack resources to maintain
overseas empires, creates power vacuum which USA and USSR rush to
fill before each other), Soviet actions in limiting destalinisation
(especially with Red Army oppression in Eastern Europe), the arms race.
Factors promoting a thaw 1948-55; consolidation of positions (security
of divisions and positions in Europe meant negotiation was more
possible), death of Stalin (but was he really determining Soviet foreign
policy by the 1950s?), Berias offer of a united Germany in 1953,
Malenkovs New Course (direction of resources away from Cold War
conflict since Soviets thought collapse of capitalism was inevitable),
Khrushchevs Peaceful Coexistence, appointment of Eisenhower and
Dulles (talented politicians, popular Iron Fist policy but with
understanding of its economic and political implications), mutual
economic pressures (12% of USA GDP spent on armaments by 1954),
mutual fear of nuclear war.

21st April 2015

Jack Usher U6M2

The consequences of the thaw period; Geneva summits of 1950s

(achieved very little; acceptance of West Germany to NATO provoked
Khrushchev, no agreement on arms limits), conclusion of a Korean
armistice, Soviet call of all-German government in a unified Germany
seemed progressive, USSR agreed to unification of Austria in 1955, SinoSoviet split.
Overall, the essential dynamics of the Cold War remained unchanged;
although progress toward a meaningful dialogue, still mutual suspicion.
But, series of crises 1956-62; Hungarian Rising of 56, Berlin Wall 195862, Cuban Missile Crisis of 62.
o Revealed superficial nature of flaw, dangers of proximal crisis, the
importance of personalities (lurch from crisis to crisis was a result
of Khrushchevs erratic policy; centralised political structure of
USSR).

What was the nature of conflict during the Cold War?

Ideological conflict.
o Both sides believe their respective ideology was superior; Cold War
borne out of mutual desire to prevent the other ideology inflicting
their evils on Europe.
o Differences in state means; communist centralisation and
totalitarianism vs. the civil liberties safeguarded in the West.
o Western fear of communist aim of world revolution.
o Competing conceptions of how best to promote ideals of democracy
and freedom.
o However, ideology can also be seen as a tool for each of the
superpowers to vie for dominance in search of their self-interests.
Economic measures.
o Restoring the economies of Europe was a powerful tool of the USA
to stop spread of communism; hence 1947 Marshall Plan.
o Stalin establishing command economies on his model in Eastern
Europe, hence Comecon in 1949.
o Difference in economic tactics shown in Berlin 48 Blockade; new
currency in West Berlin highlighted economic prosperity compared
to relative poverty in East.
o 60s and 70s; economic tactics important tool in securing Third
World influence.
Non-cooperation.
o By 1947, total lack of communication and cooperation.
o Trumans neglect to inform Stalin of US economic status in 1947
with atomic bomb.
o Policy over Germany; deliberate introduction of new currency into
West Berlin, Soviet blockade of West Berlin, 1961 Berlin Wall,
stalling of armistices in Vietnam and Korea.
o Meaningful negotiation only recommenced after Cuban Missiles
Crisis of 62; showed how dangerous poor relations could be.
Introduction of hotline.
Propaganda.
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Jack Usher U6M2

o In the USA; communism attack on grounds that it restricted dear

American freedoms, use of TV, radio and film supported by
government subsidy, personal prestige of the US presidency.
o In the USSR; total suppression of Western ideas and values, music
and film were used to bolster the communist regime, Soviet media
under monolithic state control.
o Propaganda took over inter-superpower communication during the
cooling of relations.
Espionage.
o Crucial weapon in the absence of direct conflict.
o Use of spy planes, KGB, CIA, extensive information collection (to
the extent that it eased tensions).
An arms race.
o Integral part of the Cold War conflict; significant factor for intersuperpower hostility.
o Causes; external factors (nuclear arsenal essential to safeguard
interests of East and West, development of technology made each
side anxious to continue development, Soviet secrecy and boasting
of nuclear supremacy), internal factors (arms race profited
domestic armaments industries, creation of strong militaryindustrial complex that was difficult to dissolve, military budget
facilitated employment and development so was encouraged).
o Impact; huge increase in inter-superpower insecurity, speedy USSR
nuclear development following Trumans atomic secrecy in 1945,
huge overall nuclear development (ABMs, MIRVs, 1981: USA had
7000 warheads), Reagans nuclear push (SDI & Star Wars, constant
nuclear pressure bought USSR to negotiations from economic
collapse), conventional direct conflict was limited due to the danger
of nuclear warfare (brinkmanship and MAD), quantitative
manifestation of the struggle for supremacy.
o Indirect methods of conflict crucial to the Cold War.

What were the causes and achievements of Dtente?

1956-62: Period of confrontation between the superpowers. Dtente was
an opportunity to alleviate this tension in the 70s, with reduced arms,
improved relations.
Causes; the fear of war (exposed by the Cuban Missiles Crisis, MAD by
1969, risk of nuclear war posed threat to delicate balance of power
between superpowers and their economic security), the needs of the
USSR (humiliation from Cuban Missiles Crisis, economic problems,
falling living standards of populace, USSR needed access to Western
industrial resources and techniques), the needs of the USA (political,
social and economic legacy of the Vietnam War, dtente offered
opportunity to exert American power without risky military intervention,
urgent social reform needed, position of China (triangle diplomacy, China
worried about isolation thus improved relations with USA to undermine
USSR), European needs and Ostpolitik (Brandts policy of Ostpolitik in
establishing links between East and West Germany improved relations,
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Jack Usher U6M2

social upheaval in Europe threatened the traditional regimes, Iron

Curtain was not so solid).
Achievements; US-USSR relations (SALT I, Helsinki Agreement of 75 on
human rights in Eastern Europe, SALT II proposition), US-China relations
(Nixons 72 visit, value of closer relations is the concern the relationship
posed for USSR triangle diplomacy), European dtente (East-West
border formally recognised in Germany, 72 Basic Treaty West Germany
acknowledged the existence of East Germany as a separate state, but
this does entrench the Iron Curtain divide).
Assessment; a period of progression and easing of tension, yet little had
been agreed on crucial matters e.g. arms limitations (arms actually
increased), Helsinki Agreement was essentially ignored, Sino-Soviet
relations remained poor.
o Both USA and USSR thought dtente was best way to conduct
foreign policy in the 70s since it suited their own interests. When it
no longer did so, it collapsed. The Cold War merely continued
by other means.

Why, and how, did superpower rivalry change between 1979 and 1991?
Development of the second Cold War.
o Carters (76) foreign policy; Carter was inexperienced in foreign
policy, and veered between policy of negotiation and aggressive
arms increases with strong language. USA home front opinion
favoured hard-line policy due to increasing USSR influence in the
Third World. Withdrew SALT II treaty from Senate following Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan. Increased military aid to anti-communist
groups and governments e.g. Nicaragua. Cut off trade contacts
between USA and USSR, encouraged Western boycott of 1980
Moscow Olympics. Ordered an increasing in military spending.
o Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (79); invaded by USSR on pretext of
southern buffer zone. Spread of Muslim fundamentalist in Middle
East posed threat to Soviet security. USSR sent troops to bolster a
pro-Soviet regime, but it was a wasteful operation since they were
fighting a losing battle against talented guerrilla fighters. Justified
by Brezhnev Doctrine.
o Reagans (80) foreign policy; outward hostility toward USSR and
communism. Defence spending increased by 13% in 1982, then by
8+% the following 2 years. 1983 SDI, aim to regain US military
supremacy over USSR to the extent that the USSR would not be
able to continue the Cold War. Reagan dubbed the USSR an evil
empire. Regan Doctrine; support sent to anti-communist
governments and groups.
o Inertia in the Soviet leadership; emergence of a gerontocracy.
Soviet foreign policy ground to a halt because of the frail mental
and physical condition of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko.
Unable to respond the Soviet shooting down of Korean airliner in
1983. USSR was in desperate need of political, economic and social
reform, yet was denied effective leadership.
Why did the Cold War end?
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21st April 2015

Jack Usher U6M2

o Gorbachevs new political thinking; came to power in 85, desire to

enact extensive reform to modernise USSR and make the Soviet
system more efficient. Propping up communism in the world was a
huge drain on Soviet economy; cost $40 billion p.a. Soviet foreign
policy was normalised; no longer focussed on Soviet expansion
but the human rights of all peoples. Opening of arms reduction
talks at Geneva in November 1985. Reykjavik in 86 then
Washington in 87; INF at Washington agreed to scrap all
intermediate-range ballistic missiles (first arms reduction treaty).
1988, Soviets withdraw from Afghanistan. Gorbachevs policies of
glasnost, perestroika and democratisation.
o The end of the Brezhnev Doctrine; in 1985 Gorbachev told Eastern
European leaders the doctrine would no longer apply. States could
now choose own governments, no need for buffer zone with
Gorbachevs new open politics. Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.
1990: Gorbachev accepted a new unified Germany, with
membership of NATO. Soviet territorial rights to Germany given up.
By 1989, every pro-Soviet government in Eastern Bloc had been
dismantled.
o Fall of the Soviet Union; summer 1991, START talks reduce nuclear
arsenals hugely. Tensions evaporated. Attempted coup against
Gorbachev administration in 1991. Rise of nationalism in Bloc
states led them to declare independence; remaining republics
dissolved Soviet Union as a sovereign state in December 1991.
For those who see the Cold War as a conflict of ideology, this
is the true end.
o Cold War ends when the USSR no longer had a desire for empire,
nor could it sustain it.