Oleh (Tim Dosen):

Dr. Ir. Eko Widianto, MT

Dr. Ir. Benyamin, MT
Dr. Ir. M. Burhannudinnur, MSc

Jurusan Teknik Geologi

Fakultas Teknologi Kebumian
dan Energi
Universitas TRISAKTI

7. Data analysis

2013

Lecture 12

Burial History

Sand Fairway

68 Ma 6 0 Ma

NonMarine

Nearshore
Coastal
Plain

4 8 Ma 3 8 Ma 2 9 Ma

1 8 Ma 1 0 Ma

0 Ma

Slope
Basin

Trap Analysis
Synclinal Spill Point
Controls HC Level

Cross-Section View

Synclinal Spill Point

Low

Map View Low

L12 Data Analysis

Objectives & Relevance

Objective:
Introduce some types of analyses that are
used to mature a lead into a prospect once
the geologic framework is established

Relevance:
Demonstrate some of the scientific methods
we use to determine where to drill

L12 Data Analysis

Overview of Data Analysis

Once the geologic framework is complete, we can:
Analyze present-day conditions

Where are potential traps?

How much might the trap hold (volume)?
What are the key uncertainties & risks?

Look for geophysical support

DHI and AVO analysis
Model basin fill

When/where have HCs been generated?

How have rock properties changed with time?
L12 Data Analysis

Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps

4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)

Amplitude versus Offset (AVO)

5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis

1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
Horizons & Faults
in units of 2-way time
(milliseconds)

Well Data
calibration

Velocity Data
derived from seismic processing

Time-to-Depth
Conversion
Horizons & Faults
in units of depth
(meters or feet)
L12 Data Analysis

Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps

4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)

Amplitude versus Offset (AVO)

5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis

2. Identify Sand Fairways

For key seismic sequences, namely potential reservoir intervals
Reflection
Geometries
ABC codes

Interval
Attributes

Well Data
calibration

Seismic
Attribute Maps

EODs
environments
of deposition

Sand Fairways
L12 Data Analysis

Example: Nearshore Sands

Coastal Plain

Nearshore

Slope

Basin

NonMarine
10

Coastal10
20Plain30

40

50

20

NearSlope
shore
30
10

20

30
40

40

50

Basin
L12 Data Analysis

Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps

4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)

Amplitude versus Offset (AVO)

5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis

3. Identify Traps
Use depth (or time) structure maps, with fault zones, to look for
places where significant accumulations of HC might be trapped:

Structural traps
e.g., anticlines, high-side fault blocks, low-side roll-overs

Stratigraphic traps
e.g., sub-unconformity traps, sand pinch-outs

Combination traps (structure + stratigraphy)

e.g., deep-water channel crossing an anticline

L12 Data Analysis

Structural Traps A Simple Anticline

Synclinal Spill Point

Low

If HC charge is great

A
A

Synclinal Spill Point

Controls HC Level

Low

HCs migrate to anticline

Traps progressively fills down

When HCs reaching the trap is greater, the trap is filled to a
leak point
Here there is a synclinal leak point on the east side of the
trap
L12 Data Analysis

Structural Traps A Simple Anticline

Synclinal Spill Point

Low

If HC charge is limited

A
A

Low

HC Migrating to Trap
Controls HC Level

Only enough oil has

reached the trap to fill it
to this level

HCs migrate to anticline

Traps progressively fills down
When HCs reaching the trap is small, the trap is
under-filled it could hold more
Here the trap is charge-limited and is not filled to
the synclinal leak point
L12 Data Analysis

Structural Traps A Roll-Over Anticline

Faulted Anticline Fault Leaks
A

Leak at Fault
Controls HC Level

Faulted Anticline Fault Seals

A

A
Synclinal Leak Point
Controls HC Level

Leak Point

Leak Point

L12 Data Analysis

Stratigraphic Traps Sub-Unconformity & Reef

A

L12 Data Analysis

Combo Traps Channel over an Anticline

Structure

Stratigraphy

Structure + Stratigraphy

Cross Section

L12 Data Analysis

Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps

4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)

Amplitude versus Offset (AVO)

5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis

What Are DHIs?

DHI = Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator

Seismic DHIs are anomalous seismic responses

related to the presence of hydrocarbons
Acoustic impedance of a porous rock decreases as
hydrocarbon replaces brine in pore spaces of the rock,
causing a seismic anomaly (DHI)

There are a number of DHI signatures; we will look at

a few common ones:
Amplitude anomaly
Fluid contact reflection
Fit to structural contours

L12 Data Analysis

Typical Impedance Depth Trends

In general:
3

Oil sands are lower impedance

than water sands and shales

The difference in the

impedance tends to decrease
with depth
The larger the impedance
difference between the HC
sand and its encasing shale,
the greater the anomaly

4
5
DEPTH x 103 FEET

Gas sands are lower

impedance than oil sands

IMPEDANCE x 103
10
15
20

Looking for
shallow gas

OIL
SAND

25

SHALE

6
7
8
9
10

Looking for
deep oil

Data for Gulf Of Mexico Clastics

L12 Data Analysis

DHIs: Amplitude Anomalies

Anomalous amplitudes

Change in amplitude
along the reflector
Low

High Amplitude

L12 Data Analysis

DHIs: Fluid Contacts

Hydrocarbons are
lighter than water
and tend to form flat
events at the gas/oil
contact and the
oil/water contact.

Thicker Reservoir

Fluid contact
event

Thinner Reservoir

Fluid contact
event

L12 Data Analysis

DHIs: Fit to Structure

Since hydrocarbons are

lighter than water, the
fluid contacts and
associated anomalous
seismic events are
generally flat in depth
and therefore conform
to structure, i.e., mimic
a contour line

L12 Data Analysis

What is AVO?
AVO = Amplitude vs. Offset

We can take seismic data and process it to include all

offsets (full stack) or select offsets (partial stacks)
For HC analysis, we often get a near-angle stack and a
far-angle stack
The difference in amplitude for a target interval on
near vs. far stacks can indicate the type of fluid within
the pore space of the rock

AVO analysis examines such amplitude differences

L12 Data Analysis

Some Additional Geophysics

Energy
Source

Receiver

Layer N

Seismic reflections are

generated at
acoustic boundaries

Layer N +1

The amplitude of a seismic reflection

is a function of:
velocities above & below an interface
densities above & below an interface
- the angle of incidence of the
seismic energy

Change in
Impedance

L12 Data Analysis

Why Do We Care?
Reflection amplitude varies with as a function of the
physical properties above and below the interface
Rock / lithologic properties
Properties of the fluids in the pores
Examining variations in amplitude with angle (or offset)
may help us unravel lithology and fluid effects,
especially at the top of a reservoir

Top of Reservoir
Base of Reservoir

Impedance
Lo

Hi

Zero
Offset

Near
Offset

Full
Offset

Far
Offset
L12 Data Analysis

AVO: Quantified with 2 Parameters

We quantify the AVO response in terms of two parameters:
Intercept (A) - where the curve intersects 0
Slope (B) - a linear fit to the AVO data
AVO Curve

Angle/Offset

AVO Crossplot

Negative Intercept
Negative Slope

Angle/Offset

For some reservoirs, the AVO

response differs when gas, oil
and water fill the pore space

AVO Gradient (B)

Time

Amplitude

CDP Gather: HC Leg

Water
Oil
Gas

AVO Intercept (A)

L12 Data Analysis

Seismic Example
Alpha

Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?

Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?

L12 Data Analysis

Analyzing Present-Day Conditions

From present-day configurations, we can:
Predict where Sand Fairways & Source Intervals
Predict EODs and infer lithologies

Evaluate the Trap Configuration

Identify and Size Potential Traps
Consider spill / leak points

Consider if a Sealing Unit Exists

Can shales provide top & lateral seal?

Identify where a distinct HC response occurs

DHI and AVO analysis
Model a simple HC Migration Case
Use present-day dips on stratal units
Assume buoyancy-driven migration
L12 Data Analysis

We Would Like to Know More

We need to incorporate the element of time:
When did the traps form?

When did the source rocks generate HCs?

What was the attitude (dip) of the strata when the HCs
were migrating?
What is the quality of the reservoir ( , k)
How adequate is the seal?
How have temperature and pressure conditions changed
through time?

To answer these questions, we have to model the basins

history from the time of deposition to the present
L12 Data Analysis

Outline
1. Time-to-Depth Conversion
2. Identify Sand Fairways
3. Identify Traps

4. Geophysical Evidence
Direct HC Indicators (DHIs)

Amplitude versus Offset (AVO)

5. Basin Modeling
Back-strip stratigraphy (geohistory)
Forward model (simulation)
L12 Data Analysis

Basin Modeling
Back-strip the
Present-day
Strata to
Unravel
the Basins
History

0 Ma

Model Rock
& Fluid
Properties
Forward
through Time

18 Ma

Time Steps are

Limited to
Mapped Horizons
29 Ma

Time Steps are

Regular Intervals
as Defined by the
User

36 Ma

42 Ma
L12 Data Analysis

Basin Modeling
We start with the present-day stratigraphy
Then we back-strip the interpreted sequences to
get information of basin formation and fill
For some basins, we can deduce a heat flow history
from the subsidence history (exercise)

Next we model basin fill forward through time at a

uniform time step (typically or 1 Ma)
If we have well data, we check our model
Temperature data
Organic maturity (vitrinite reflectance)
Porosity

Given a calibrated basin model, we predict

HC generation from source intervals
Reservoir porosity
L12 Data Analysis

Simple Model of HC Migration

Generate oil and gas at lower left

HCs percolate into porous interval (white)
Trap A fills with oil and gas gas displaces oil
Trap B fills with spilled oil and gas
Seal at B will only hold a certain thickness of gas
At trap B gas leaks while oil spills

Trap A

Trap B

Trap C
Spillage of
Excess Gas

Traps with
unlimited
charge
Migration Path
Of Spilled Oil
Gas separator

Source
Generating HCs
L12 Data Analysis

Intro to Exercise
Goal: To map the extent of the A1 gas-filled reservoir
W

E
A1 Gas
Sand

Inline 840

Figure 1
L12 Data Analysis

Changes in Amplitude Indicate Fluid

Gas Sand

Water Sand

Traces are
clipped

Inline 840

Figure 1
L12 Data Analysis

Fluids within the A1 Sand

Extent of Gas
Inline 840

Figure 1

L12 Data Analysis

A Prospect
A prospect is a location and depth that has been identified
as a good place to drill for oil and/or gas

For us to find oil or gas, certain conditions must be meet

There needs to be a source for the oil or gas

The source rocks need to be cooked to the right degree
There needs to be a porous rock to hold the oil or gas
There needs to be a subsurface trapping geometry
There need to be a seal
There needs to be plumbing connecting source and reservoir

Alpha

Beta

Objectives & Relevance

Objective:
Introduce the types of considerations
necessary to get a prospect ready for
management approval

Relevance:
Demonstrate some the tasks that go into determining
the size of the prize and the risk associated with a
prospect

Overview of Prospect Analysis

Given the geologic framework and the results of our data analysis,
our next task is to analyze and assess viable prospects:

Analyze prospect elements

Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal
Consider the most-likely scenario
Consider other cases - the range of possibilities

Asses the prospect

What volumes of HCs can we expect?
Will it be oil or gas?

Risk the Prospect

What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements work?

Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type

4. Assessment
5. Risk

Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type
4. Assessment

5. Risk

Plumbing To Connect
the Container to the Kitchen

A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked

Correctly
Placed
Wells

A Container
From Which
Oil & Gas
Can Be
Produced

A Real HC System
Draupne Shale
organic rich
serves as a source rock

Heather Shale
Sognefjord Shale
both organic poor

Oil
Spill
Point

Facies
Change

Fault
Leak
Point

HC Generation & Expulsion

Brent Sandstone
acts as a reservoir

oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Brent

HC Migration

into Brent carrier beds and up faults

HC Fill & Spill

late gas displaces early oil

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Oil

Overburden

Fill & Spill

Seal
Reservoir

Oil

Migration

Source
Basement

Oil

Generation

18 Ma

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Overburden

Oil

Migration

Seal
Reservoir

Oil

Migration

Source
Basement

Oil

Generation

10 Ma

Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Overburden

Oil

Migration

Seal
Reservoir

Oil & Gas

Migration

Source
Basement

Oil

Generation

Gas

Generation

Present

Most-Likely Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Oil

Oil

18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit

Most-Likely Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Oil
Oil

10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit

Most-Likely Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Gas

Oil

Oil

Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit

Explorations Task
Identify
Opportunities
Acquire
Seismic Data
Interpret
Seismic Data

Capture
Prime Areas
Drill
Wildcats

Process
Seismic Data

Failure
Assess
Prospects

1.
2.
3.
4.

Volume
HC Type
Assessment
Risk

Success

Confirmation
Well

Uneconomic Success
Drop
Area

To
EMD
C

Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment

5. Risk

Lets start an exercise

Exercise
We will do some quick estimates using a
series of simplifying assumptions

Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes

3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
DHI Analysis
AVO Analysis
HC Systems Analysis

Oil or Gas???

Model response with different rock & fluid

properties

If there should be a difference, which fluid

type does the seismic data support?

Quantitative

Should there be a difference in seismic

response (AVO) between an oil-filled
reservoir and a gas-filled reservoir?

Extract amplitudes from near- and far-angle

stacks

What did the source generate

What did the trap leak or spill

Qualitative

From our basin modeling & HC systems

analysis, which fluid type should we expect

Model Seismic Responses - Input

10%
Porosity

Gas

Oil

Brine

20%
Porosity

30%
Porosity

Model Seismic Responses - Output

10% Porosity
Offset

20% Porosity
Offset

30% Porosity
Offset

Model Seismic Responses - Output

AVO Crossplot
Gas
Oil
Brine
Shale

0.4

10%

Slope

0.2

20%
0.0

30%

-0.2

-0.4
-0.3 -0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

Intercept

0.2

0.3

Questions???

Many times the seismic data

will give us clues!

How can we verify this scenario?

To what level are the traps filled with oil & gas?
What would be the value ($) if our scenario is
correct?
How much more/less HC could there be?
How risky is this prospect (chance that we are

Seismic Line over Alpha

Alpha

Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?

Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?

Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type

4. Assessment
5. Risk

Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a prospect,
we have to assess its potential value

Deterministic Assessment
One value for each parameter
One final number, e.g., 200 MBO

Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter
A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50 MBO

Scenarios & Probabilities

Scenario 1

Alpha

Scenario 2

Gas Cap & Oil Leg

40% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 3

Alpha

Gas Only
20% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 4
Alpha

Oil Only
30% Chance of Occurrence

Alpha

Low Gas Saturation

10% Chance of Occurrence

Deterministic Prospect Assessment

To Assess a Prospect, We Assign Numbers
to the Parameters related to HC Volumes
In our exercise,
we have assumed
the all oil case
(Scenario 3)

Unrisked means everything in the HC System has

worked!

Alpha Prospect Assessment Results

Scenario 1

Oil

Gas

Oil-Equivalent

Million Barrels Oil

Billion Cubic Ft Gas

Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

112 MBO

95 GCF

Oil & Gas

Scenario 2

6 GCF = 1 MBO

0 MBO

314 GCF

Gas Only

Scenario 3

121 MOEB

52 MOEB
Uneconomic

192 MBO

0 GCF

192 MOEB

0 MBO

0 GCF

0 MOEB

Oil Only

Scenario 4
Low Gas Saturation

Uneconomic

Assuming 100 MOEB is needed to make prospect econ

Probabilistic Assessment
The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range of
Possible Outcomes
We Input a Range of Values for Each
Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area

Min

ML

Max

12

20

27

Thickness

Net:Gross

Porosity

HC Sat.

FVF

Recovery

Alpha Prospect Unrisked

100%

100
80%

Economic Minimum

Excedance Probability

Unrisked Results

60%
40%

20%

0%

100

200

300

Million Barrels of Oil

50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more
75% Chance of finding the economic minimum

400

Outline

1. Define prospect elements

2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment

5. Risk
25% Risk

75% Chance of Succes

9 Key Elements of the HC System

Source
Quality

Source
Maturation

HC
Migration

Reservoir
Presence

Trap
Quality

Reservoir
Quality

Seal
Adequacy

Biodegradation

Not Low Gas

Saturation

A team of experts consider these key elements for ea

They rate the chance of success (COS) for each on a

COS for Alpha

Alphas biggest risk is that the fault does not seal.
There is also a chance that the trap is only filled
with low saturation gas
Reservoir Presence - - - - 1.0
Reservoir Quality

- - - - 1.0

Trap Quality

- - - - 1.0

chance of success

Seal Adequacy

- - - - 0.8

(COS)

Source Quality

- - - - 1.0

Source Maturation

- - - - 1.0

HC Migration

- - - - 1.0

Not Low Gas Saturation - 0.9

Biodegradation

- - - - 1.0

0.72
Highest
Risk
Some Risk

Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results

Alpha Prospect Main Compartment - Risked
1.0

100

Gas Only

72 % COS

Economic Minimum

0.8

Gas Cap & Oil Leg

0.6
0.4

0.2

0.0

100

58 % Chance of
Finding More
Than the
Economic
Minimum

Oil Only

200

300

400

500

Million Oil Equivalent Barrels

72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons
58% Chance to find 100 MBOE
5% Chance to find 400 MBOE

Exercise

In the exercise we will use

A COS of 60%
An economic minimum of 100 MBOE

Summary
Weve Gone from Identifying an Opportunity
in the Bonanza Basin to Drilling a Wildcat at
the Alpha Prospect

I Hope that YOU

Learned some
things about G&G
in Industry
along the way!

Prospect Analysis
Our geological and geophysical analysis helps us identify and
characterize prospects in terms of these critical elements

Geoscientists will work a prospect such that:

The volume of oil or gas that is most likely to be present and
recovered is determined,
The range of possible volumes is estimated (maximum and minimum
cases), and
The chance of success is estimated
All this information is presented to management

The Prospect Game

Starting Point
Your staff has been hard at work 'maturing' each prospect.
Their work for each prospect is summarized by:
An estimated drilling cost
A prediction of the most-likely amount of oil (in millions
of barrels, MBO)
The likely range of possible oil volumes (high-side and
low-side cases)
An estimate of the chance of success for the prospect.
These data are provided on tables. If you only drill the low
risk prospects, the probability of your reaching your goal
is extremely low - but not zero.

The Prospect Game

USING YOUR BUDGET

Your team can spend some of your budget on improving the seismic data to
get better predictions of the amount of oil and its range of values, and the
chance of success.
You can reprocess the existing seismic data over a prospect at a cost of
10% of the well cost.
Alternatively, you can acquire better seismic data at a cost for
acquisition and processing of 25% of the well cost.
OR you can spend all your money on drilling wells.

The Prospect Game

GAME PLAN

1.
2.
3.
4.

We will divide you up into 3 or 4 teams

We will go over the instructions
Your team will have 5 minutes to develop a strategy.
We will rotate through each team allowing them to:

Drill one prospect without additional data, OR

Ask for reprocessing on a prospect, see the new estimates, and
then either drill the same prospect or pass, OR
Ask for a new survey, see the new estimates, and then either drill
the same prospect or pass

NOTE: No clear decision after 30 seconds is an automatic pass.

The first team to discover 500 million barrels of oil WINS

Drilling a Well
Drilling a well is a three-step process:

1. Drill based on the data at hand or spend some money to

either re-process or re-acquire & re-process the seismic
2. Roll 2 dice to determine the success of the well (function of
the wells risk and the total on the dice)
3. If the well is an oil discovery, roll 2 dice a second time to
determine the volume of oil discovered.

TABLE 1: Prospects with key assessment parameters

Drilling with the Data on Hand

Most-Likely
Volume
(Unrisked)
(MBO)

Low-Side
Case

High-Side
Case

Chance of
Success

Discovery if
Total on 2
Dice

Prospect
Number

Prospect Name

Drilling Cost
($M)

Mouse

0.2

0.1

0.4

97%

3 - 12

Canary

0.4

0.2

0.8

97%

3 - 12

Kitten

0.6

0.3

1.2

92%

4 - 12

Terrier

0.9

0.45

1.8

92%

4 - 12

Goat

10

1.8

0.9

3.6

72%

5 - 12

Ram

15

2.3

1.15

4.6

72%

5 - 12

Kangaroo

18

4.4

2.2

8.8

58%

6 - 12

Bull

20

4.5

18

58%

6 - 12

Stallion

27

17

8.5

34

58%

6 - 12

10

Zebra

32

21

10.5

42

42%

7 - 12

11

Lion

38

50

25

100

42%

7 - 12

12

Bear

42

90

45

180

42%

8 - 12

13

Elk

49

125

62.5

250

28%

8 - 12

14

Moose

55

290

145

580

28%

9 - 12

15

Hippo

80

450

225

900

17%

10 - 12

16

Gorilla

100

600

300

1200

17%

10 - 12

17

Elephant

120

840

420

1680

8%

11 - 12

18

Whale

130

1180

590

2360

8%

11 - 12

19

T-Rex

140

1900

950

3800

3%

12

20

Brontosaurus

160

4500

2250

9000

3%

12

Determining the Volume of a Discovery

If the well is a discovery, a team member rolls 2 dice a
second time to see how much oil is present. This chart
indicates a multiplier for the most-likely amount (range
is from 1/2 to double).

Data Re-Acquisition or Re-Processing

If your team decides to re-acquire or re-process the data for
one prospect, what happens?
1. Money will be subtracted from your total
2. You will get a revised set of numbers (privately) for the
prospect
3. Given the updated most-likely volume of oil (could be
higher or lower) and a new chance of success (always
higher), your team can drill the prospect or pass.
4. If you make a discovery, a revised set of multipliers will
be used
Keep the revised numbers confidential; you paid for more
accurate numbers and you do not want another team to