Transitions:

A Roadmap to Low-Power Memory

Kevin K. Yee
Oct 15, 2014
MemCon 2014

A Look at History

Last three decades PC driven

Memory Density

2013 gaming laptop

32 GB

2000 gaming computer

4 GB memory

1990 office standard

640 kB memory

1981 IBM PC
16 kB base memory

1980
2

1990

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2000

2010

What drives the market nownext?

The next 3 decades - ?

Memory Use by Market Segment

13%

13%

13%
32%
31%

52%

2009
Source: ISH (iSuppli) for 2013

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

43%

2015

A Look at the PresentFuture

New Applications, new systemsnew challenges

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Shifting Memory Requirements

Mobile changes the priority

Mobile
Consumer
Networking
PC/Server

Bandwidth

Power

Cost

Capacity

Mobile shifts focus from DDR to LPDDR!

* Cadence assessments
5

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Mobile and Low Power DDR

LPDDR3 vs. LPDDR4
LPDDR4 is more power efficient than LPDDR3 for certain tasks
For Mobile applications, this is everything

Active

Power

LPDDR3
Standby

Time
Power

Active
Standby

LPDDR4

Time
6

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Proof in Point

Todays Smartphones

Performance

Xaiomi Mi4
16G
Apple
iPhone 6
128G
Apple iPhone 5
32G

Samsung
Galaxy S5
32G

2013
7

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2014

2015

The DDR Memory Roadmap

Does JEDEC drive transitions?

Not really
JEDEC drives memory specifications
Memory is a high volume manufacturing business
Driver1: Price low cost and volume
Driver 2: Need power or performance

What is the inflection point?

Price vs. need
Chicken & Egg low price first or volume demand first (cost)

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The DDR Memory Roadmap

Memory Specifications
HBM
HMC
Wide IO 2
Wide IO
GDDR5
LPDDR4

GDDR4

GDDR3

LPDDR3
LPDDR2

GDDR2
LPDDR

DDR4
DDR3
DDR2
DDR
SDRAM

1993

10

2000

2002

2004

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

What drives Memory Adoption?

Breaking the Cycle
Technology or Price?

New technology hard to adopt

High initial price limits adoption or transition
Low initial volume keeps prices high
The vicious cycle

Breaking the cycle

Mobile could be the thing that breaks the cycle
Need is great and the volumes high (quickly)
This means that prices can drop quickly leading
to faster adoption
Economy of Scales

11

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

What drives Memory Adoption?

Need vs. Cost
Multi-core Processing Power
(1.5 GHz+)

New Content Consumption

User Experience

Larger Display (HD UHD)

Hi-speed Wireless (4G LTE, WiFi

End Product Needs

Larger and higher resolution displays and cameras
Bigger and faster applications
Bragging rights

Memory costs
Memory is traditionally driven by cost
If the need is not there it is all about costs
The lower the cost, the faster the adoption
12

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

What drives the mobile need?

Beyond Power: Density
Screens are getting larger
Smartphones going from 4 inch to 4.7 inch to 5.5 inch
Tablets going from 7 inch to 8.0 inch to 10 inch
Flagship Smartphone Memory Density

2Gb LPDDRx

4Gb LPDDRx

6~8Gb LPDDRx

13

Year

Memory Density

Memory Type

2009

256MB

LPDDR

2010

512MB

LPDDR

2011

1GB

LPDDR2

2012

2GB

LPDDR2

2013

2GB

LPDDR3

2014

3GB

LPDDR3

2015

4GB ?

LPDDR3/4 ?

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

More Bandwidth in Mobile

Higher resolution and screen size
Resolution is getting higher
From 1280x720 to 3840x2160 and beyond
> size and resolution = > Memory
Screen size progression for smartphone and tablets
10

Tablets

Inches

8
7
5.7

6
5

4.5

Smartphones

3.4

4
3
2

2.3
1

1
0
HD
1280x720

14

FHD
1920x1280

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QXGA
2048x1536

WQXGA
2560x16006

QSXGA
2560x2048

UHD
3840x2160

More Performance in Mobile

From 400 to over 3200

Memory Speed in Mbps

4500

4266

4000
3500

3200

3000

PC-DDR4 Bandwidth

2500
2000

LPDDR4

1600

1500

1066

1066

LPDDR3

800

1000
500

2133

400

400

LPDDR2

0
2007

15

2008

2009

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Case Study: Apple iPhone and iPad

Volume and ramp rates
iPhone Unit Sales
60000

47789

50000

37044 35064

40000

26028 26910

30000
20000
10000

8700 8752 8398

14102

20338
16235 18647
17073

0
2010

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012

Q2

Q3

iPad Unit Sales

Q4

2013

Data from Macworld

60000

22860

50000
40000

30000
20000
10000

3270

4188

Q3

Q4

7331

4694

9246

11123

15434

17042
11798

14036

0
16

2011

Q2

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Q3

Q4
Source: Macworld

2012

Q2

Q3

Q4

2013

Case Study: Apple iPhone

Apple iPhone volume and ramp rates!

A Game Changer:
5 Million phones in a weekend

20 Million phones in a month

17

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Macworld

LPDDR transitions in Apple iPhone Models

iPhone Memory Size/Type
1500

1250
1 GB
LPDDR2

1 GB
LPDDR3

1000

750
512MB
LPDDR2

500

250

128MB
LPDDR

256MB
LPDDR

0
iPhone
2007

iPhone
3GS
2009
Source: Wikipedia, 10/2014
18

iPhone 3G
2008

iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5S iPhone 6

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

2015

Case Study: Xiaomi Smartphone

Record Shipment in 2014

Source: Xiaomi web site, 10/2014

19

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

WW smartphone shipments
2009~2018
1800
1600

Units in Millions

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mobile Volumes will impact

the Low-Power Memory Transition !
Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014

20

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2017

Smartphone shipments in China

2011~2013
100
95

90

91
87

80
78
70
70
60

62

50
45

40
36
30

33
26

20
17
10

15

0
Q1, 11

Q2,11

Q3, 11

Q4, 11

Q1, 12

Q2, 12

Q3, 12

Units in Millions
Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014

21

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Q4, 12

Q1, 13

Q2, 13

Q3, 13

Q4, 13

LPDDR Exceed DDR in Performance

Mobile moves into PC space

LPDDR Performance is converging!

22

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LPDDR & DDR Price converging

Little to No Premium for Low Power
4Gb Equivalent prices of DRAM Alternatives

1Q 2012 Pricing
4Gb LPDDR ->
4Gb DDR3L ->
LP Premium =

$6.80
$4.20
62%

$7
LPDDR3 x32

$6
LPDDR2 x32

Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast

4Gb LPDDR2 ->
4Gb DDR3L ->
LP Premium =

Convergence

DDR3L-RS x32

$4.75
$3.60
32%

$5

DDR3L-RS x16

$4

DDR3L x16

Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast

4Gb LPDDR3 ->
4Gb DDR3L ->
LP Premium =

$6.40
$3.60
78%

$3

$2

$1
Q1

Q2

Q3

2012

23

2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: JEDEC Mobile Forum 2013

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2013

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2014

Q4

Mobile Market Transition

Low Power High B/W Memory
120

100

WideIO2
LPDDR3

LPDDR2

80

LPDDR4

60

40

20

0
2010

2011
LPDDR

2012
LPDDR2

2013
LPDDR3

2014
LPDDR4

2015

2016

Wide IO

LPDDR Roadmap Transition is happening!

24

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The Low-Power Memory Roadmap Transition

Summary
Factors Driving Transition

LPDDR4

Lower power
Greater bandwidth
Higher volume/lower cost

Transition is happening NOW!

LPDDR3

From DDR to LPDDR

From LPDDR3 to LPDDR4

LPDDR2

DDR

25

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2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.