Professional Documents
Culture Documents
UNEASINESS
Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry
1/25/2016
CHART: Growth of Asian Middle Class Dominates Next 20 Years .............................................................................................................. 574
CHART: Global Domestic Demand Growth .................................................................................................................................................... 574
CHART: Fiscal Adjustments Required Deficit Reductions for Fiscal Sustainability..................................................................................... 575
CHART: Over $10 Trillion Pumped Into Global Economy by Developed Economies .................................................................................... 576
CHART: Eventually All this Debt Must be Rolled over or Paid Out................................................................................................................. 576
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 576
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun ................................................................................................................. 577
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Biggest Worry" Is Dramatic Decline In Bond Market Liquidity, Prudential Says ...................................................... 580
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Proving to be Volatile ............................................................................................................... 581
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Forecasts Hinge on a Deteriorating US Economy ................................................................... 584
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession ........................................................................................... 585
GLOBAL OUTLOOK This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy ...................................................................................................... 588
GLOBAL OUTLOOK What is global market turbulence telling us? ............................................................................................................. 592
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn ............................................................ 595
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 597
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 599
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................. 600
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ......................................................................... 605
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ................................................................................................. 607
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ........................................................................ 610
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth ............................................................ 613
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat ........................................................................................................................ 616
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ..................................................................................................................... 618
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ............................................................................... 621
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap ................................................................................................................................................. 623
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 729
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................... 733
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 734
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 736
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 737
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................. 748
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ........................................................................................................................... 949
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years....................................................................................................................................... 950
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ................................................................................................... 953
JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ..................................................................................................................................... 955
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis .................................................................................................................................................. 956
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ....................................................................... 961
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ..................................................................................................................................... 962
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" .................................................................................. 965
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ......................................................................................................................... 966
PBOC CHINA ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 968
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 968
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Debt at 282% of GDP in 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 968
NEW-CHARTS Change in Chinese Bank Assets Since Q4 2008 Compared to Big 4 Central Banks .................................................... 969
CHARTS Chinas Capital Inflow / Outflow ................................................................................................................................................ 969
CHARTS Chinas Falling Holdings of US Treasuries ............................................................................................................................... 970
CHARTS Cumulative % Increases in Pork Since the Start of the Cycle .................................................................................................. 970
CHARTS Severe Supply of Food Staple - Pork ....................................................................................................................................... 971
CHARTS Chinese CPI (Minus Pork) ........................................................................................................................................................ 972
CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ......................................................................... 972
CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio ........................................................................................................................................ 972
CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ........................................................................................... 973
CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth ........................................................................................................................ 975
CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ..................................................................................................................... 975
CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble ........................................................................................ 976
CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts .............................................................................................................................................. 976
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 977
CHINA MONETARY - Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasuries In The Past Two Week .............................. 977
CHINA MONETARY - China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ........................................................... 979
CHINA MONETARY - Confusion Reigns At PBoC As Multi-Trillion Yuan Bailout Threatens To Undermine Rate Cuts ........................... 984
CHINA MONETARY - China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says ...................................... 990
CHINA MONETARY Is China Beginning to Panic as it Lowers Reserve Ratio ....................................................................................... 992
CHINA MONETARY - Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nears .................................................................................................. 994
ECB EU ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1000
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1000
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1001
CHARTS EU QE Results An Abject Failure ........................................................................................................................................ 1001
CHARTS Welcome to the EUs NIRP .................................................................................................................................................. 1001
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ....................................................................................................................................... 1002
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ....................................................................................................................................... 1002
CHARTS UK & German Total Return Indices ........................................................................................................................................ 1003
CHARTS ECBs Dilemma of Digging Up Enough Debt .......................................................................................................................... 1003
CHARTS Nearly $2T European Nonds Trading With Negative Yields .................................................................................................. 1004
CHARTS Total National Debt Germany versus Industrial Country Average (ex-Germany) ............................................................... 1004
CHARTS The Fastest Growing Asset Class NIR Products ................................................................................................................. 1005
CHARTS Euro-Area Output Still Slightly Below Pre-Crisis Levels ......................................................................................................... 1006
CHARTS 5 Year Inflation Swaps Suggests Deflation in the EU ............................................................................................................ 1007
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Rate on the Decline Since 2011 .............................................................................................................. 1007
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Expectations Decline ............................................................................................................................... 1008
CHARTS Euro-Area Private Sector Loan Creation ................................................................................................................................ 1009
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth .................................................................................................... 1009
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields ................................................................................................................................ 1010
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot .......................................................................................................................... 1010
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................. 1011
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................... 1012
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................. 1012
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 ............................................................................................................ 1013
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................. 1014
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1015
EU MONETARY - Draghi Failed: European Inflation Expectations Slide To Pre-QE Level ..................................................................... 1016
EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 1017
EU MONETARY - NIRP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1019
EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ........................................................................................................ 1023
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements ................................................................................................................................................ 1026
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................. 1027
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action .................................................................................... 1029
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ......................................................................................................... 1031
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down .......................................................................... 1033
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ................................................................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1035
NEW-CHARTS US 5Y5Y Forward Swap ................................................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ...................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................................. 1036
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ....................................................................................................................... 1037
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 1037
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ..................................................................................................................................... 1037
NEW-CHARTS Premium investors demand to hold EM debt over U.S. Treasuries widened to 481 .................................................... 1184
NEW-CHARTS Capital Controls Arrive In Emerging Markets China & Azerbiajan ............................................................................ 1184
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Outstanding in US Dollars Increased $17.7T Since 2006 ........................................................................... 1185
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Has Expanded Dramatically Compared to Developed Markets .................................................................. 1186
CHARTS Emerging Market 10 Year Shift in Share of World GDP 2004 to 2014 ............................................................................... 1187
CHARTS Emerging Market Fx in Freefall ............................................................................................................................................... 1187
CHARTS Total Economy Debt as a % of GDP India, Poland, Ireland and Spain .............................................................................. 1187
CHARTS Global FX Reserves 2000 versus 2005 versus 2015 .......................................................................................................... 1188
CHARTS GDP per Capita Income .......................................................................................................................................................... 1189
CHARTS EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 .................................................................................... 1190
CHARTS Brazil in or Near a Serious Recession .................................................................................................................................... 1190
CHARTS Collapsing Currencies in Columbia and Chile ......................................................................................................................... 1191
CHARTS The Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................................................ 1192
CHARTS The Tale of Two Economies Chile versus Portugal ............................................................................................................ 1193
CHARTS Emerging & Developed Economy Growth Rates Converge ................................................................................................... 1194
CHARTS Emerging Market Currency Sell-Off ........................................................................................................................................ 1194
CHARTS Emerging Markets Stocks versus Developed Market Stocks ................................................................................................. 1195
CHARTS Investors Are Pulling Money From Developing Markets ........................................................................................................ 1196
CHARTS Valuation of EM Stocks is Falling Against Developed Markets .............................................................................................. 1196
CHARTS EM Capital Outflows Surge Towards $1T .............................................................................................................................. 1197
CHARTS Developing Nation Currencies Plunge After Chinas Devaluation Rattles Markets ............................................................... 1197
CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ........................................................................... 1199
CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ................................................................................................................. 1200
CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 ............................................................................................................................ 1201
CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes .................................................................................................................... 1201
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth ........................................................................................................ 1202
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ............................................................................................................................... 1202
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ...................................................................................................................................... 1203
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions ................................................ 1203
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows...................................................................................................................................................... 1204
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................. 1204
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 .................................................................................................... 1205
CHARTS Total GEM Flows..................................................................................................................................................................... 1205
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................. 1206
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1207
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls ..................................................................... 1207
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - For Emerging Markets, It Is Now Worse Than the Asian Financial Crisis ............................................. 1208
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Be Very Afraid: "The 3 EM Debacles" Loom, HSBC Warns .................................................................. 1211
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says ............................................................................. 1214
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse .............................. 1216
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ................................................................................................. 1222
EMERGING MARKETS - Lost Decade in Emerging Markets: Investors Already Halfway There ............................................................ 1229
EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ..................................................................................... 1234
EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .............................................................. 1237
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ......................................................................................................... 1239
EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs ...................................................................................................... 1244
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................. 1245
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ................................................................................................................................................... 1246
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ....................................................................................................................................... 1251
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!........................................................................................................................................................... 1253
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1254
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1256
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1257
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1263
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1268
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1272
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1275
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction ............................................................................................................................................. 1278
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1278
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1279
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserves Have Fallen Steadily Since the Completion of US TAPER ............................................ 1279
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserve Total and Monthly Change ................................................................................................ 1279
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1280
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1282
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1282
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1283
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1283
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1284
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1284
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1285
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1286
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1286
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1287
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1287
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1288
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1289
GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies......................................................................................... 1408
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1408
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1410
GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1410
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1410
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1412
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1412
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1413
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1413
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1414
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1416
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1416
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1417
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1420
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1422
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1424
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1426
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1427
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1427
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1429
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1431
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption...................................................................................................................................... 1432
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1432
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1433
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1433
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1433
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1434
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1434
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1435
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1436
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1436
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1438
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1439
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1440
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1441
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1441
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1443
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1444
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1445
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1445
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1446
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1446
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1447
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1447
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1448
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1448
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1451
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1452
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1454
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1454
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1457
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1460
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1461
CHARTS A weaker Euro has been good for the STOXX 600 ................................................................................................................ 1480
CHARTS Eurozone equity inflows continue to rise ................................................................................................................................ 1481
CHARTS YTD flows into European equity funds ................................................................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS 3 Mo EURIBOR Drops to -0.001% - Below Zero for First Time? ........................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS Negative Yields Have Become the New Norm in the Euro area .......................................................................................... 1482
CHARTS "Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield" ............................................................... 1482
CHARTS Feb Retail Sales Y-o-Y +3.0% versus 2.8% est. .................................................................................................................... 1483
CHARTS Draghi Had To Deliver or it would have been a Collateral Massacre..................................................................................... 1483
CHARTS EU Disconnect Between Equity Prices & Earnings and Dividends ........................................................................................ 1484
CHARTS Eurozone is the Biggest Drag on Global Profits ..................................................................................................................... 1484
CHARTS Eurozone Government & Private Debt 276% of GDP (Excluding Financials) ....................................................................... 1485
CHARTS EU PMIS Rolling Over ............................................................................................................................................................ 1486
CHARTS Eurozone Banks Too Big To Be Bailed Out! .......................................................................................................................... 1487
CHARTS Eurozone Area Consumer Confidence May Be Misleading ................................................................................................... 1488
CHARTS Eurozone GDP & Recession Pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 1488
CHARTS EU-Area PMI Shows Sustained Deterioration ........................................................................................................................ 1489
CHARTS Euro Area CPI Seen Below 1% for 11th Month ....................................................................................................................... 1489
CHARTS Euro Area Domestic Demand has lagged US & Japan by 9% since 2010 ............................................................................ 1490
CHARTS Euro Area Inflation Levels ....................................................................................................................................................... 1491
CHARTS Geo-Political Tensions May Weigh on Confidence ................................................................................................................ 1492
CHARTS Stalling Euro-Area Recovery Heightens ECB QE Pressure ................................................................................................... 1492
CHARTS Industrial Production Slows In Line With PMIs ....................................................................................................................... 1493
CHARTS ZEW Expectations Signals Slowdown Ahead ........................................................................................................................ 1494
CHARTS Euro-Area July PMI ................................................................................................................................................................. 1494
CHARTS Corporate Borrowing Spreads Remain Wide ......................................................................................................................... 1495
CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ............................................................................................................................... 1495
CHARTS EU Financial Conditions Deteriorating .................................................................................................................................... 1496
CHARTS EU Confidence ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1497
CHARTS - Slow Money Growth May Stoke Deflation Concerns .............................................................................................................. 1498
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation at Lowest Level Since 2009 Individual Countries ................................................................................. 1499
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation Aggregate .............................................................................................................................................. 1499
CHARTS - 10M Part-Time Workers Underemployed in EU ...................................................................................................................... 1500
CHARTS - Euro-Area Housing Prices Decline .......................................................................................................................................... 1501
CHARTS - Euro-Area Trade Surplus ......................................................................................................................................................... 1502
CHARTS - Euro-Area Composite PMI ....................................................................................................................................................... 1503
CHARTS - EU Area Weakness ................................................................................................................................................................. 1504
CHARTS - EU Area GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1505
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1506
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1507
CHARTS - EU Real Rates ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1508
CHARTS - EU -NON Euro Members GDP RELIANCE ............................................................................................................................. 1509
CHARTS - EU GLOBAL GDP GROWTH CONTRIBUTION ..................................................................................................................... 1510
CHARTS - EU PMI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1510
CHARTS - EU CPI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1512
CHARTS - Regional Risk-Reward ............................................................................................................................................................. 1513
CHARTS - Europe's "Core" Problem is France .................................................................................................................................... 1514
CHARTS - Germany's Preoccupation with Inflation is More Than It Would Seem ........................................................................... 1517
CHARTS - Evidence OF Global Slowing Now Indisputable ................................................................................................................. 1518
CHARTS - EU Credit Downgrades, France and UK On Tap ................................................................................................................... 1520
CHARTS - Perceived Reduction in Risk, A Temporary Aberration ........................................................................................................... 1522
CHARTS - Dangerous Delusional Divergences .................................................................................................................................... 1524
CHARTS - IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS ............................................................................................................................... 1525
CHARTS - Air Cargo Shipments Confirm Slowing Global Growth ............................................................................................................ 1526
CHARTS - Eurozone Misery Indices Never Been Higher ..................................................................................................................... 1527
CHARTS - Euro Currency .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1529
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1535
NEW-RESEARCH Migrant Crisis Sparks Balkan Border Battles As EU Buckles Under Overwhelming Refugee Flow ....................... 1535
NEW-RESEARCH Buiter: Migrant Crisis "May Signal The Beginning Of The End" For EU ................................................................. 1539
NEW-RESEARCH "The End of The EU": Merkel's "Heroic" Refugee Response May Destroy Union, Slovakia Warns ...................... 1540
NEW-RESEARCH Europe's Refugee Crisis "Out of Control", Hungary PM Rages "This Is A German Problem, Not An EU Problem"
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1547
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ................................................................................................................................... 1550
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................. 1552
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble ............................................................................ 1553
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP............................................................................................................ 1555
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case .............................................................................. 1555
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision .......................................................................................................................................................... 1557
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................. 1560
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................. 1561
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate.................................................................................................................................. 1563
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ........................................................................... 1565
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ......................................................................................................................................................... 1567
RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems .................................................................................... 1568
RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets ...................................................................... 1570
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ............................................................................................................................................... 1572
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ...................................................................................................... 1573
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece .............................................................. 1576
CHINA Economists seek to ease fears on Chinas record capital outflow..................................................................................... 1963
CHINA China sets up $16B Gold fund as part of Silk Road initiative .................................................................................................... 1966
CHINA The Real Reason China Is Buying Up the World's Gold ...................................................................................................... 1966
CHINA China could crash US dollar with 30,000 tons of gold ............................................................................................................... 1969
CHINA Hard Landing Clearly Evident ................................................................................................................................................. 1972
CHINA The Next Peg To Fall The Yuan or Hong Kong Dollar? ................................................................................................. 1975
CHINA Yuan Diverging From Its Trading Basket ............................................................................................................................... 1981
CHINA Signs of Madness in the Global Financial System ............................................................................................................... 1983
CHINA Reverses Direction and Begins Easing ................................................................................................................................. 1984
CHINA China's Economic Reporting Possibly a Deception ............................................................................................................. 1985
CHINA Yuan Diverging From Its Trading Basket ............................................................................................................................... 1987
CHINA - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ................................................................................................ 1990
CHINA - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems ...................................................................................................................... 1992
CHINA - China's Rehypothecation............................................................................................................................................................. 1995
CHINA - Asian Marginal Utility ................................................................................................................................................................... 1997
CHINA - Is China is Exporting Deflation Worldwide by Driving Down Yuan? ........................................................................................... 1999
CHINA - Someone Is Betting That The Chinese Currency Collapses By The End Of 2014Low-Hanging Fruit ............................. 2002
CHINA - Problems in the Target Redemption Forwards Derivatives market & Dim-Sum Bonds ................................................... 2003
CHINA - Absence Of A Letter Of Credit!.................................................................................................................................................... 2004
CHINA - China Cracks down on Commodity Credit .................................................................................................................................. 2007
CHINA - Falling Yuan ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2009
CHINA - What Happens After the Low-Hanging Fruit Has Been Picked? .......................................................................................... 2011
CHINA - SHADOW BANKING - CCFD (Chinese Commodity Funding Deals) ..................................................................................... 2014
CHINA - Cracks Beginning to Show ....................................................................................................................................................... 2017
CHINA - Has an Inflation Problem ............................................................................................................................................................. 2018
CHINA - Chinese Coal Producer Collapse a Major Shadow Banking Problem ................................................................................. 2019
CHINA - China Orders Its Smaller Banks to Load Up On Cash .......................................................................................................... 2022
CHINA - How the Chinese Economic Disaster Scenario Could Unfold ............................................................................................. 2027
CHINA - Skilled Labor Shortages & Losing Labor Cost Advantage ................................................................................................... 2029
CHINA - Launches Crackdown On "Off Balance Sheet" Credit .......................................................................................................... 2034
CHINA - China's Stunning $15 Trillion in New Liquidity - Part II......................................................................................................... 2038
CHINA - China's Stunning $15 Trillion In New Liquidity ...................................................................................................................... 2041
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS & KEY NOTES ................................................................................................................................................... 2045
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................... 2048
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Shadow Banking and Credit Growth .................................................................................................... 2051
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - The US Sub-Prime / CDO All Over Again ............................................................................................. 2054
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Report ....................................................................................................................................................... 2058
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Situation ................................................................................................................................................. 2059
CHINA RESERVES - Distorted Foreign Reserve Levels ...................................................................................................................... 2060
CHINA RESERVES - Declining Reserve Accumulation ............................................................................................................................ 2062
CHINA RESERVES - Has Caught the Gold Bug big time! .................................................................................................................... 2064
CHINA CURRENCY WARS - Hot Money into China .............................................................................................................................. 2066
CHINA - Withdraws Liquidity .................................................................................................................................................................. 2067
CHINA - Socit General Sees a Likely Soft Landing! ......................................................................................................................... 2069
CHINA - True Debt is Orders of Magnitude More than Officially Being Reported ............................................................................ 2079
CHINA - Evidence OF Slowing Now Indisputable ................................................................................................................................ 2082
CHINA - PMI Improvement....................................................................................................................................................................... 2083
CHINA - Political Transition & Ongoing Emergence as a Super Power ............................................................................................ 2086
CHINA - An Implicit Social Contract .......................................................................................................................................................... 2088
CHINA - Manipulated Statistics due to Upcoming Decade Long Regime Change ........................................................................... 2090
CHINA - Increasing Leverage is China's Way of Monetary Easing .................................................................................................... 2091
CHINA - Possible Interest-Rate Liberalization........................................................................................................................................... 2092
CHINA - Global Impact of China's Slowdown ....................................................................................................................................... 2093
CHINA - Shanghai Composite at 2008 Low Levels .............................................................................................................................. 2096
CHINA - Shanghai Composite Warnings Signs .................................................................................................................................... 2097
CHINA - Credit to GDP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2099
CHINA - A Slow Recovery Through 2013 ................................................................................................................................................. 2100
CHINA - Manufacturing PMI in Contraction Territory .......................................................................................................................... 2102
JAPAN - Appoints BOJ Governor Firmly Committed to Printing Money ........................................................................................... 2219
JAPAN - Third Straight Quarter of Recession ....................................................................................................................................... 2221
JAPAN - Full Out War on Deflation ......................................................................................................................................................... 2221
JAPAN - First Test of the new found dominance of the Central Banks .......................................................................................... 2223
JAPAN - BOJ Was Next Up. No Surprise .............................................................................................................................................. 2226
JAPAN - Negative Current Account Balance and -3.5% Recession ................................................................................................... 2228
JAPAN - A 50% Over-Valued Yen Has Undermined Self Confidence & Drive ................................................................................... 2231
JAPAN - Proves QE's Low Cost of Capital Does Structural Damage to Economy ........................................................................... 2233
JAPAN - BOJ Being Pressured to "Rip-Up Government Debt"1 ........................................................................................................ 2235
JAPAN - Easy Money Has Hurt Corporate Profitability in the Longer Term ..................................................................................... 2241
JAPAN - The Biggest Debtor with the Biggest Problem! .................................................................................................................... 2244
JAPAN - A Magnitude Larger Problem than Europe ................................................................................................................................. 2248
JAPAN - QE 9 A Complete Failure - Actually "Tightens" versus It's Intended Easing .............................................................................. 2254
JAPAN - Japanese Yen Continuously Under Attack ................................................................................................................................. 2259
JAPAN - Vast foreign US$ Coming Home for "Claim" .............................................................................................................................. 2260
JAPAN - PMI Breakdown ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2262
JAPAN - Exports Continue To Tumble .................................................................................................................................................. 2264
JAPAN - Intervention Fails Again - It's a Whole new Ball Game ........................................................................................................ 2265
JAPAN - First Signs of Massive Debt Monetization After Next Election ................................................................................................... 2268
JAPAN - Japan to the ESM's Rescue ..................................................................................................................................................... 2268
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ................................................................. 2334
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2337
ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 2337
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2341
NEW- ASIA: CHARTS The Most Leveraged Region Today Corporate Leverage Debt/EBITDA ....................................................... 2341
NEW -ASIA: CHARTS Entering More Adverse Part of the Credit Cycle ............................................................................................... 2341
NEW- ASIA: CHARTS Real GDP Slowing, Real Funding Costs Are Rising ......................................................................................... 2342
ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations ....................................................................................................... 2343
ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth............................................................................................ 2344
ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports ........................................................................................................ 2345
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2346
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 2346
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 2348
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 2348
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2350
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 2351
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 2351
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .......................................................................................................................... 2352
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................ 2353
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ...................................................................................... 2353
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 2354
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 2356
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems ...................................................................................................................................................... 2357
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ............................................. 2359
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 2361
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 2363
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ................................................................................................................................. 2364
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia ................................................................................................. 2368
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ........................................................................................................................................... 2369
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................ 2372
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 2373
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2375
NEW-LATIN AMERICA Latin America Shouldn't Blame the Federal Reserve ................................................................................ 2375
NEW-COLUMBIA Colombian Peso Leads Currency Declines as Crude Falls ................................................................................ 2377
NEW-ARGENTINA Fewer Reserves Are a Plus for Argentine Bondholders................................................................................... 2377
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .............................................................................................................. 2378
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................ 2379
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 2381
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2381
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2382
BRICS................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2388
BRICS Population, GDP,GDP per Capita ............................................................................................................................................ 2388
BRICS Responsible for 43% of Global Growth in 2013 .................................................................................................................... 2389
BRICS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? ........................................................................................................................................ 2389
BRICS Inflation Problems Abound ...................................................................................................................................................... 2391
BRICS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth .............................................................................................. 2392
BRICS - Insufficient Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support .......................................................................................................... 2393
BRICS - A Development Bank-Forex Reserve Pool-African Integration ............................................................................................ 2395
BRICS - 40% of World Population and 25% of World GDP .................................................................................................................. 2396
BRICS - $3 to $13B GDP in Ten Years ................................................................................................................................................... 2399
BRICS- A World Wide Distrust of Financial Markets Building ............................................................................................................ 2401
BRAZIL........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2403
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil Budget Cuts Not Enough to Avoid More Downgrades .......................................................................................... 2403
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is Now A Job Destruction Machine ..................................................................................................... 2404
NEW-BRAZIL - Local Rates Hit Hardest by Swift S&P Sovereign Downgrade to Junk ........................................................................... 2407
NEW-BRAZIL - Recession and High Rates Doomed Brazils Investment-Grade Rating ......................................................................... 2409
NEW-BRAZIL - Why Brazil Is Not Coming Back Anytime Soon ............................................................................................................... 2411
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil Returns to Junk as Developing Nations Feel the Squeeze ................................................................................... 2411
BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ...................................................................................................... 2414
BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................. 2421
BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................................... 2421
BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector ....................................................................................................... 2422
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ............................................................................................................... 2422
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 2424
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 2427
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 2430
BRAZIL - Sharpest Decline in 2013 Growth Forecast ............................................................................................................................... 2431
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 2434
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 2435
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 2435
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 2436
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 2436
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2437
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 2437
RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 2438
RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 2438
SENTIMENT: US Economic Confidence Crashes Most Since July to Lowest Since December ................................................................. 2691
SENTIMENT: We Are All Bulls Now .............................................................................................................................................................. 2694
SENTIMENT: No More Greater Fools: Retail Traders Are "Pretty Fully Invested" In Stocks, TD CEO Says .............................................. 2695
SENTIMENT: One Heckuva Bull Market but Momentum Weakening! ......................................................................................................... 2696
SENTIMENT: Small Business Confidence is a Major Problem in America .................................................................................................. 2698
SENTIMENT: Americas Crisis of Trust ......................................................................................................................................................... 2700
SENTIMENT: "Everything Is Awesome" American Consumers Are The Happiest In 11 Years .................................................................. 2702
SENTIMENT: For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst Year. Ever. ........................................................................................................................ 2702
SENTIMENT: An Astounding Number Of Americans Aren't Investing A Cent ............................................................................................. 2704
SENTIMENT: US Households to Withdraw $430 Billion From Stocks In 2014 ............................................................................................ 2709
SENTIMENT: Elliott Wave's View from the Top ............................................................................................................................................ 2712
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2716
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2716
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2720
NEW-CHARTS October Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y & Sequential Change ................................................................................ 2720
NEW-CHARTS October Retail Y-o-Y Sales ........................................................................................................................................... 2720
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Autos M-o-M ........................................................................................................................................ 2721
NEW-CHARTS Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption ................................................................ 2721
NEW-CHARTS Consumer Credit Car Loans ......................................................................................................................................... 2722
NEW-CHARTS Consumer Loans Owned by the Government .............................................................................................................. 2722
NEW-CHARTS Student & Car Loans ..................................................................................................................................................... 2724
NEW-CHARTS Total Non-Revolving Credit ........................................................................................................................................... 2724
NEW-CHARTS August Sequential Change in Revolving and Non-Revolving Credit ............................................................................ 2725
NEW-CHARTS Gas Prices Below $2/Gallon by December? ................................................................................................................. 2725
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Income Proxy versus Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas .................................................................................. 2726
NEW-CHARTS Consumption Items Sampling - Y-o-Y Growth .............................................................................................................. 2726
CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y/Y and Sequential Change ....................................................................................................... 2728
CHARTS Retail Sales Y-0-Y ................................................................................................................................................................... 2728
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Auto ............................................................................................................................................................... 2729
CHARTS VICE Index and Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................ 2730
CHARTS Value of Manufacturers New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries .................................................................................. 2731
CHARTS y-0-y Chain Store Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 2731
CHARTS Y-0-Y Factory Orders .............................................................................................................................................................. 2732
CHARTS Annual Growth in Retail Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 2732
CHARTS Retail Sales Have 2 Mo Change Drop Dating Back to 2009 .................................................................................................. 2733
CHARTS Retails Sales Mo-o-Mo Drops ................................................................................................................................................. 2733
CHARTS Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services by Kind .............................................................................. 2734
CHARTS What Americans Spent Their "Gas Savings" On .................................................................................................................... 2735
CHARTS Retail Sales-Previous Month Comparisons ............................................................................................................................. 2737
CHARTS No Offset to Plunging Gas Sales in Ex-Auto, Ex Gas ............................................................................................................ 2738
CHARTS Deflated Retail (ex Auto) Christmas and Aftermath ............................................................................................................... 2738
CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y and Sequential Change .................................................................................................... 2739
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added Since the Great Financial Crisis .............................................................................................. 2739
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added in Q4 2014 ............................................................................................................................... 2740
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 2740
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales ....................................................................................................................................................... 2741
CHARTS False Signal of Consumer Re-Leveraging .............................................................................................................................. 2743
CHARTS Sub-Prime Lending Drives Spending ..................................................................................................................................... 2744
CHARTS Retail Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2744
CHARTS Retail Sales - Details ............................................................................................................................................................... 2746
CHARTS Consumer Credit Growth Since Cycle Peak ........................................................................................................................... 2747
CHARTS Real Income is The Key Driver of Consumption Spending .................................................................................................... 2747
CHARTS Consumer Credit Drove Household Debt in Q2 Mortgage Debt Lagged ............................................................................ 2748
CHARTS Discretionary Spending Showing Signs of Cracking .............................................................................................................. 2748
CHARTS - Real Disposable Personal Income .......................................................................................................................................... 2749
CHARTS - Real Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................... 2751
CHARTS - Consumer Credit Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 2752
CHARTS - Core Retail Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 2753
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2754
NEW- RECESSION Retail Implosion Proves we are in a Recession .................................................................................................... 2754
RESEARCH - Headwinds for US Consumers & Home Buyers ................................................................................................................ 2760
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2761
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2763
RESEARCH - 95% of Consumer Credit Lending Going towards Student & Car Loans ........................................................................... 2765
RESEARCH - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ..................................................................................................................................... 2767
RESEARCH - Gallup Survey Shows -10% Reduction in Christmas Buying Plans ................................................................................... 2770
RESEARCH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .......................................................................... 2771
RESEARCH - A Sequential Decline in Wages .......................................................................................................................................... 2772
RESEARCH - Final Sales Signals Pending Potential Recession on the Horizon ..................................................................................... 2773
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2774
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2780
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2780
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2784
NEW-CHARTS Strong Dollar, High Inventories to Slow US Factory Output ......................................................................................... 2784
NEW-CHARTS US ISMs 3 Mo MA ......................................................................................................................................................... 2785
NEW-CHARTS September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ..................................................................................................... 2786
NEW-CHARTS Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August)......................................................................................... 2787
NEW-CHARTS Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates ............................................................................... 2788
NEW-CHARTS Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008....................................................................................... 2788
NEW-CHARTS Predicted US Quarterly GDP Grow Q-o-Q Annualized ............................................................................................. 2789
NEW-CHARTS Predicted US Annual Growth % Through 2024 ............................................................................................................ 2789
NEW-CHARTS Predicted US Growth Compared to UK and Eurozone ................................................................................................. 2790
CHARTS US Q2 GDP Consensus Forecast versus Atlanta Feds 0.7% ............................................................................................... 2790
CHARTS Q1 2015 US GDP Growth Consensus Estimate .................................................................................................................... 2792
CHARTS US Business Investment Current versus Previous Recoveries .......................................................................................... 2792
CHARTS US Vehicle Miles 12 Month Total All Roads ..................................................................................................................... 2793
CHARTS CAPEX Use of Cash ............................................................................................................................................................ 2794
CHARTS Change in Total Private Industries.......................................................................................................................................... 2794
CHARTS US Private Construction Spending ......................................................................................................................................... 2795
CHARTS Ratio of Coincident-to-Lagging Conference Board Indices .................................................................................................... 2796
CHARTS GDP Q4 2014 Revised Components Table ............................................................................................................................ 2797
CHARTS Quarterly Change in % Contributions to GDP ........................................................................................................................ 2797
CHARTS Three Reasons CAPEX is Faltering ....................................................................................................................................... 2797
CHARTS ISM Rally Has Petered Out & Expected Inflation Has Fallen ................................................................................................. 2798
CHARTS Philly Fed Rolling Over ........................................................................................................................................................... 2799
CHARTS US Profits & Sales Have Stalled ............................................................................................................................................. 2800
CHARTS Real GDP versus CAPEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 2800
CHARTS Change In Inventories Inflated from Lack of Demand ......................................................................................................... 2801
CHARTS US GDP Revision for Q4-2014 ............................................................................................................................................... 2802
CHARTS Quarterly GDP by Component Breakdown ............................................................................................................................. 2802
CHARTS Long Term US GDP Growth Estimates FOMC versus CBO ............................................................................................... 2804
CHARTS US Real Domestic Product Running Out of Runway .......................................................................................................... 2804
CHARTS Steadily Falling Real US Growth Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 2806
CHARTS US Power Consumption Tells the Real Story of US Growth & De-Industrialization .............................................................. 2807
CHARTS US Real Trade Gap (Ex-Petroleum) ....................................................................................................................................... 2807
CHARTS Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Growth Looming .......................................................................................................... 2808
CHARTS Bloombergs Consensus GDP Forecasts 2011-2014.......................................................................................................... 2809
CHARTS GDP Growth During Current Recovery Lags Past Expectations ........................................................................................... 2809
CHARTS Trends of Output, Hours and Productivity .............................................................................................................................. 2810
CHARTS Weak US Capacity Utilization ................................................................................................................................................. 2811
CHARTS A US Recession Likely IF Liquidity is not increased and TAPER Sustained ......................................................................... 2811
CHARTS Barrons Sees 4% Growth The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator ............................................................................................. 2812
CHARTS Firms Revising Lower Q1 Growth on Weakening Retail Sales .............................................................................................. 2813
CHARTS Negative Economic Surprises Began in November ............................................................................................................... 2813
CHARTS What Americans Experience Daily and its Isnt Growth ......................................................................................................... 2814
CHARTS - Manufacturing .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2815
CHARTS - Exports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2815
CHARTS - Durable Goods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2816
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business CAPEX .................................................................................................................................................. 2816
CHARTS - US Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorating ............................................................................................................................ 2817
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2818
NEW-RESEARCH - The Divergence in ISM Surveys Shows a Troubling Path for U.S. Growth ............................................................. 2818
NEW-RESEARCH - Conference Board "Leading Indicators" Plunges To Lowest Since March 2013 ..................................................... 2819
NEW-RESEARCH - xxxx ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2820
RESEARCH - Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy ............................................................ 2820
RESEARCH - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Downward to 2.18% ................................................................................... 2822
RESEARCH - The U.S. Economy is Dead ................................................................................................................................................ 2824
RESEARCH - Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown ......................................................................................... 2826
RESEARCH - US Q1 GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2829
RESEARCH - US GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 2834
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2835
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2839
US PUBLIC POLICY RUSSIA & IRAN ESCALATE SYRIAN CONFLICT ............................................................................ 2847
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2848
NEW-SYRIA RUSSIA & IRAN ENTER THE FRAY ................................................................................................................................ 2848
NEW-TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP) ......................................................................................................................................... 2851
NEW-US GUN CONTROL (DEBATED AGAIN) ........................................................................................................................................ 2853
CHARLESTOWN SHOOTING ............................................................................................................................................................... 2853
BEGINNINGS OF SOCIAL UNREST & THE MILITARIZATION OF POLICE .......................................................................................... 2854
BALTIMORE RIOTS............................................................................................................................................................................... 2854
FERGUSON ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2855
MILITARIZATION OF POLICE............................................................................................................................................................... 2855
POLLS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2856
CORPORATE INVERSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2857
INCARCERATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2857
FLAWED TAX POLICY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2857
MINIMUM WAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2857
SOCIAL CANCERS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2858
CORRUPTION & MALFEASANTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2858
INEQUALITY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2858
CREEPING SOCIALISM ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2859
MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 2956
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2956
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption ................................................................ 2956
NEW-CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ................................................................................................... 2956
NEW-CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .......................................................................................................... 2957
NEW-CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 ..................................................................................................................... 2957
NEW-CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ................................................................................................................... 2958
NEW-CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series........................................................................................................................... 2958
NEW-CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay ........................................................................................................ 2959
NEW-CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ....................................................................................................... 2959
NEW-CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ............................................................................................................................... 2960
NEW-CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ................................................................................................. 2960
CHARTS: ZIRP Policy Results Compared to Previous Falling or Steady Rate Targets .............................................................................. 2961
CHARTS: Producer Price Index is Plummeting Complete Lack of Pricing Power .................................................................................... 2962
CHARTS: Liquidity Problems in Bond Market Are Only Getting Worse ....................................................................................................... 2962
CHARTS: Lending is Coming From the Fed Not the Banks ...................................................................................................................... 2963
CHARTS: Debt Service Ratio for Prior Expansions ...................................................................................................................................... 2963
CHARTS: Why Interest Rates Cant Come Up Derivative Collateral Underpinnings ................................................................................ 2964
CHARTS: Total Credit Market Debt + Fed B/S versus Nominal GDP Growth ............................................................................................. 2964
CHARTS: Fed is Allowing Adjusted Monetary Base to Fall .......................................................................................................................... 2965
CHARTS: Federal Reserve Monetary Base Since 1918............................................................................................................................... 2965
CHARTS: US Nominal GDP & Credit Market Debt Owed Since 1952 ......................................................................................................... 2966
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet & Policy Rate Target ..................................................................................................................................... 2966
CHARTS: Cash Balances versus Total Reserve Balances .......................................................................................................................... 2967
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet and QE Versions ........................................................................................................................................... 2967
CHARTS: Major US Financial Institutional Leverage Ratios ........................................................................................................................ 2969
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Composition .................................................................................................................................................. 2970
CHARTS: Cash Bank Holdings ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2971
CHARTS: Debt Needed to Create $1 GDP ................................................................................................................................................... 2972
CHARTS: Markets May be Ahead of Slowing Liquidity Flow Rates ............................................................................................................. 2972
CHARTS: Primary Dealer Repo Fails............................................................................................................................................................ 2973
CHARTS: Repo Volumes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2973
CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ................................................................................................................................................... 2974
CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ................................................................................................................................................... 2974
CHARTS: Feds Reverse Repo Agreements ................................................................................................................................................ 2975
CHARTS: Why Does the Fed Need Such a Large Options Trading Contract with ALL Exchanges? .......................................................... 2976
CHARTS: 10 Year Yield Suggests End to Yellen Honeymoon ..................................................................................................................... 2977
CHARTS: Capitalism Doesnt Work Without Savings for Investment Where is the Savings? ................................................................. 2977
CHARTS: Net National Savings Rate............................................................................................................................................................ 2978
CHARTS: Mispricing of Risk Reaching Extremes ......................................................................................................................................... 2978
CHARTS: Unless you were a Banker, ZIRP Has Accomplished Zilch! ........................................................................................................ 2979
CHARTS: Ratio of Capital v Consumer Goods Production .......................................................................................................................... 2980
CHARTS: Feds Targeted Credit Growth Opportunities................................................................................................................................ 2981
CHARTS: 90 Day Delinquent Loans by Type Student Loans a Growing Problem .................................................................................... 2981
CHARTS: A Third of US GDP is Now Going to Repay Interest & Principle on Loans ................................................................................. 2982
CHARTS: M2 Money Velocity ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2984
CHARTS: Net Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries ..................................................................................................................................... 2984
CHARTS: US Increase in Money Printing versus GDP ................................................................................................................................ 2985
CHARTS: US Consumers Failed Attempt at Deleveraging .......................................................................................................................... 2986
CHARTS: Traditional Bank Liabilities v GDP ................................................................................................................................................ 2987
NEW-RATES: Market-Implied Odds of a Rate Hike ..................................................................................................................................... 2988
NEW-RATES: Probability of Fed Rate Move Fed Funds Futures.............................................................................................................. 2988
NEW-RATES: Feds Mixed Signals Loses It Credibility ................................................................................................................................ 2989
RATES: Almost a Third of All Trades Have Known Only ZIRP ..................................................................................................................... 2990
RATES: Is There a Zero Bound for US Rates? ............................................................................................................................................. 2991
RATES: Historical Policy Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2992
RATES: Debt ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2993
RATES: Stages of Fed Forward Guidance ................................................................................................................................................... 2993
RATES: Real Interest Rates .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2994
RATES: Eight Rate Issues for the Fed Up or Down................................................................................................................................... 2995
NEW-INFLATION: Core PCE and 5Y/5Y Forward Breakeven ..................................................................................................................... 2996
INFLATION: Inflation Targeting is Clearly Not Working ................................................................................................................................ 2996
INFLATION: Market-Based Inflation Expectations on the Rebound ............................................................................................................. 2997
INFLATION: US Inflation Education-Medical-Food-Housing versus CPI .................................................................................................. 2997
INFLATION: Price Inflation through Decline in Purchasing Power of the Dollar .......................................................................................... 2999
INFLATION: Official Inflation Picture Remains Subdued .............................................................................................................................. 2999
INFLATION: Cost of Eating ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3000
INFLATION: The Cost of Breakfast ............................................................................................................................................................... 3001
INFLATION: July 4th Cost of Beef Burger ...................................................................................................................................................... 3002
INFLATION: Bloombergs July 4th Barbecue Index ....................................................................................................................................... 3002
INFLATION: Butter on a Roll ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3003
INFLATION: Back to School Shocker............................................................................................................................................................ 3004
INFLATION: Where Inflation Isnt (Yet) - Energy .......................................................................................................................................... 3005
INFLATION: Most Commonly Used Items are rising faster than CPI ........................................................................................................... 3006
INFLATION: Back to School Shocker............................................................................................................................................................ 3006
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3007
NEW-RESEARCH Fed Quietly Revises Total US Debt From 330% To 350% Of GDP, After "Discovering" Another $2.7 Trillion In Debt
....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3007
NEW-RESEARCH Fed Admits "Changes In Asset Prices", "Decline In Equity Prices" Influenced Rate Decision ................................... 3011
RESEARCH Bank Reserves & Loans: The Fed is pushing On A String ................................................................................................... 3011
RESEARCH Global Currency Wars & Deflationary Pressures .................................................................................................................. 3015
RESEARCH Debt is a promise of something of value in the future ........................................................................................................... 3021
RESEARCH Is NIRP Coming To America? ............................................................................................................................................... 3028
RESEARCH Deflation is a Problem for the Fed With Shrinking Growth Rates ......................................................................................... 3031
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................ 3038
REPO FAILS .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3039
REVERSE REPO Feds Stealth Program to Protect Markets .................................................................................................................... 3040
FISCAL POLICY HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THE DEBT CEILING CHARADE! ............................................................................ 3041
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 3043
NEW-PEURTO RICO .................................................................................................................................................................................... 3043
NEW-ILLINOIS & CHICAGO ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3043
A SHRINKING BUDGET DEFICIT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS ................................................................................................................... 3045
FISCAL MATTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3047
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 3049
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3049
NEW-FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ........................................................................................... 3049
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 3049
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 3050
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 3050
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 3051
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 3051
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 3052
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3053
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 3054
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 3054
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 3055
NEW-RESEARCH - Lew moves up by two days to Nov. 3 the deadline by which Congress must raise the nations debt limit ................. 3056
NEW-RESEARCH - With Republicans In Disarray, All Eyes Turn To November 18 When The US Runs Out Of Cash ............................ 3058
NEW-RESEARCH - As Debt Ceiling "Accident" Looms, Ron Paul .............................................................................................................. 3059
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Mortgage bonds reflect diverging fortunes of US malls ....................................................................... 3453
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Dead Mall Syndrome: The Self-Reinforcing Death Spiral of Retail ..................................................... 3455
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The First Domino to fall: Retail-CRE (Commercial Real Estate) ......................................................... 3457
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - After Seven Lean Years: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects 3461
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Cannibalization ................................................................................................................ 3467
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming ............................................................... 3468
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ....................................................................................................... 3471
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 3475
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3475
NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................... 3476
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions......................................................................... 3513
RECESSION Major Economic Trends.................................................................................................................................................... 3514
NEW-RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3515
NEW- RECESSION Economists are starting to warn about the risk of a new U.S. recession .............................................................. 3515
NEW- RECESSION Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise ............................................................... 3518
RECESSION Retail Sales Slump on Deck ............................................................................................................................................. 3520
RECESSION This Is another "Subprime" Waiting To Blow ................................................................................................................... 3523
RECESSION Record Gap between US Inventories and Sales Screams Recession ............................................................................ 3526
RECESSION August spending was the weakest in nominal dollar terms since 2012 ........................................................................... 3528
RECESSION The Next Recession Will Definitely Not Happen In 2018 ................................................................................................. 3533
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
4th Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Monday following
2tnd Saturday of the
Month
Tuesday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Focus