POLLING MEMO

January 28, 2016

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FR:

Bruce Donisthorpe

RE:

New Mexico State Survey on Bail Reform Proposals

BWD Global surveyed 943 voters throughout New Mexico on January 27, 2016. Our survey
margin has a 3.1% margin of error. Calls were made between 6 pm and 9 pm. All voters who
participated in the poll voted in the 2012 and 2014 general elections. This is a likely voter
survey.
ABOUT BWD GLOBAL: Bruce Donisthorpe, a 35-year veteran of New Mexico politics is the owner of
BWD Global which is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Donisthorpe is a native of New Mexico and
graduate of the University of New Mexico (MA Speech Communication-1985, BA Education-1982).
Donisthorpe served 12 years as chief legislative staffer to US Congressman Joe Skeen on Capitol Hill in
Washington, DC, before returning to New Mexico to establish his policy, politics, public relations and
strategic/crisis communications company. Donisthorpe regularly conducts surveys on politics and public
policy issues throughout the Land of Enchantment at the Federal, State, Regional, County and Municipal
government levels and has conducted numerous public and private campaign surveys since 2008.

DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THAT GIVES

JUDGES THE DISCRETION TO HOLD CITIZENS ACCUSED OF VIOLENT CRIMES
WITHOUT BAIL UNTIL A TRIAL IS CONDUCTED, IF THE STATE CAN PROVE BY CLEAR
AND CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT THE INDIVIDUAL IS A DANGER TO OTHERS AND
THE COMMUNITY?

IF SUPPORT, PRESS 1
74%
IF OPPOSE, PRESS 2
10%
IF UNSURE, PRESS 3
16%
N=943, MARGIN OF ERROR: 3.1% (LIKELY VOTERS)

NOTES: This question was supported by a wide margin across all demographic categories. All
three political categories show wide support for this proposal. The strongest level of support for

the proposal was registered by voters who believe repeat violent offenders is the top crime issue
(48% of all voters on the poll) as 86% support the bail proposal tested on our survey.
Support levels noted by demographic category, include:
GENDER
o FEMALES 75%
o MALES
76%
POLITICAL PARTY
o DEMOCRATS
68%
o REPUBLICANS
85%
o INDEPENDENTS
74%
IDEOLOGY
o PROGRESSIVES
66%
o LIBERALS
66%
o MODERATES
82%
o CONSERVATIVES 79%
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
o FIRST
79%
o SECOND
74%
o THIRD
68%
REGION OF NEW MEXICO
o NORTHERN NM
60%
o ABQ METRO
80%
o EAST SIDE
75%
o SOUTHWEST
73%
o NORTHWEST
69%
TOP CRIME ISSUE BATTERY
o BURGULARY/PROPERTY CRIMES
o DOMESTIC VIOLENCE/SEX CRIMES
o DWI CRIMES
o POLITICAL CORRUPTION
o REPEAT VIOLENT OFFENDERS

72%
72%
73%
58%
86%

DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT WHICH WOULD

REQUIRE JUDGES TO RELEASE CRIMINAL DEFENDANTS FROM CUSTODY WITHOUT
BAIL IF THE DEFENDANT DEMONSTRATES THAT HE OR SHE CANNOT AFFORD BAIL?

IF SUPPORT, PRESS 1
15%
IF OPPOSE, PRESS 2
66%
IF UNSURE, PRESS 3
19%
N=857, MARGIN OF ERROR: 3.2% (LIKELY VOTERS)

NOTES: A majority of New Mexicans surveyed across all demographic categories opposed this
measure by a significant margin. The largest opposition comes from the Top Crime Issue voters
concerned about repeat violent offenders (48%) which oppose this proposal by a 73%-13%
margin. About 72% of supporters for denying bail to violent offenders opposed this proposal.
About 2/3 of all survey respondents in each congressional district oppose the measure.
Opposition levels noted by demographic category, include:
GENDER
o FEMALES 65%
o MALES
69%
POLITICAL PARTY
o DEMOCRATS
64%
o REPUBLICANS
72%
o INDEPENDENTS
65%
IDEOLOGY
o PROGRESSIVES
53%
o LIBERALS
54%
o MODERATES
70%
o CONSERVATIVES 79%
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
o FIRST
66%
o SECOND
69%
o THIRD
64%
REGION OF NEW MEXICO
o NORTHERN NM
60%
o ABQ METRO
66%
o EAST SIDE
74%
o SOUTHWEST
63%
o NORTHWEST
69%
TOP CRIME ISSUE BATTERY
o BURGULARY/PROPERTY CRIMES
o DOMESTIC VIOLENCE/SEX CRIMES
o DWI CRIMES
o POLITICAL CORRUPTION
o REPEAT VIOLENT OFFENDERS

70%
64%
60%
63%
73%

Voters were asked which of five issues were most important on the survey and 48% selected
repeat violent offenders, while 16% said DWI crimes, 14% political corruption, 12% domestic
violence and sex crimes, and 7% saying burglary and property crimes.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY: BWD Global of Albuquerque, New Mexico conducted the survey using automated
phone dialing methods utilizing established demographic methodological standards to 1,067 registered voting
households with known voting history throughout New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on
January 27, 2016 between 6 pm and 9 pm, MST. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted

at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex,
region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for this survey
is 3.1% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. The polling sample was scaled
to reflect the voting performance makeup of New Mexico in the 2016 general election: 52%-Democratic, 32%Republican and 16%-Independent voters.Some of the numbers will add up to more than 100% in a given category
due to rounding.