PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 4 月 12 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
原棕油期货极可能有望在本周反弹…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 诚如所料，美国轻质原油期货期货上周五继续往上坚挺，并
一度试叩 87 美元强大阻力线。

♦ 可惜，在强大套利压力下，原油始终未能突破 87 美元。

♦ 相反地，原油划出一根“黄昏星型态”（evening star），
显示它可能会从近日的上升趋势中回落。

♦ 虽然如此，我们还是保持乐观，基于动力指标近来已转俏。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们估计它将会稍微回调至 80 美元，然后才在
买盘动力重现下，带动它在近期挑战 87 美元关卡。

♦ 我们的中期目标维持在 87 美元至 100 美元之间的区域。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 原棕油期货（CPO）一度稍微告失 2,500 令吉大关，但最终

还是有能力在上周站稳于该道心理关口以上。

♦ CPO 纪录了第 2 根“类似锤头线”（hammer-like），显示

它欲要发动一轮技术反弹的意愿很强烈。

♦ 鉴于它收在 10 周移动平均线（即 2,588 令吉）以上，加上

已被调和的随机指标（stochastic oscillators）也触发一个
“买入”讯号，这表示它即将在本周反弹。

♦ 因此，我们继续保持看好该原产品期货，而 2,500 令吉强大

扶持力也料将会维护其中期上升趋势。

♦ 一旦成功破关，它将会重新挑战近日的 2,722 令吉高点，然

后才迈向 2,760 令吉阻力前进。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 当令吉兑美元上周进一步转强时，这再次印证了我们的预
测。

♦ 令吉较早前一度跌破 3.29 水平，而令吉兑美元图表也记录

了 2 根巨大利淡黑烛，显示美元将在近期进一步转弱。

♦ 虽然动力指标双双已触及“超买区”，但我们认为，令吉可
望在跟进买盘扶持下进一步转强。

♦ 我们继续看俏令吉的短、中期展望，其中它兑美元的目标位
于 3.07。

♦ 为了能够让美元收复失地，它必须重拾 3.29，或者至少在
本周取得一根小白烛。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 在之前形成 2 根利多白烛而成功突围下降趋势阻力线
（DRL）后，日元兑美元图表在上周终止其复苏趋势，基于
它在图表上划出一根黑烛。

♦ 图表上，在试叩 95.5 之前，日元兑美元上周恰好地重拾力

度。

♦ 上周的收盘已拖累了 14 周强弱指标（14-week RSI）往下

转低，并导致它稍微跌破 60 周移动平均线（即 93.39）。

♦ 只要它还是无法完全取下 95.5，那么我们认为，美元的近
来强势将未能进一步延伸。

♦ 如今，其扶持点位于 DRL（即 90）。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 尽管欧元兑美元较早前已破除 0.73 关口，但它继续面临强

大阻力。

♦ 该货币记录了一根“类似流星十字线”（shooting star
doji-like），显示它可能会回调。

♦ 再加上疲弱的动力解读，欧元兑美元可能会在近期展开一轮
小反弹。

♦ 不过，我们认为，该货币料将会维持在 0.73 突破点以上。

♦ 只要该货币维持在 0.73 以上，那么美元兑欧元将维持强

稳。

♦ 美元接下来的阻力位于 0.77 至 0.80 之间的区域。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 纵然划出一根小黑烛，但美元指数（DXY）周五已一连第 3
周维持在 81 突破点以上。

♦ 图表上，由于随机指标转弱，加上 14 周强弱指标也持平，
该指数可能会面临在本周跌破 81 水平的风险。

♦ 虽然如此，随着它仍旧守在 81 以上，因此我们目前继续维
持看俏美元指数的看法。

♦ 若该指数丢失 81，这意味着之前的走势可能会是虚假突破
讯号。届时，这会导致我们反转看好美元指数的看法。

♦ 不过目前，我们还是放眼将上升趋势的目标设在 85 至 89
之间。

♦ 至于较低的扶持线则落在 78 和 21 周移动平均线（即
79）。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
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manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

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