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Paper No.

549

MODELLING CONGESTION ON URBAN ROADS USING SPEED


PROFILE DATA
M.V.L.R. ANJANEYULU* & B.N. NAGARAJ**
ABSTRACT
A fast emerging component of urban transportation problems in the cities world wide is the problem of traffic
congestion. There is a need for defining traffic congestion on a rational basis and use that for measurement of
levels of service on roads. The review of the literature has revealed that the fluctuations in speed, which is the
most primary effect of congestion, have not yet been utilized for congestion modelling. An attempt has been
made in this work to study the relationship of congestion with speed variations and hence to quantify congestion
using these speed variations. Detailed speed data collected on a second-to-second basis on the selected road links
using electronic distance measuring instrument installed in a test vehicle, together with, a laptop computer and
adopting the chase car technique and 5 minute classified traffic volume counts formed the database for this study.
Speed profile data was filtered from random variations and the speed variation indices were estimated.
Coefficient of Variation of Speed (CV) was found to have a good relationship with the operating volume for all
the three classes of roads. CV was chosen as the Indicator of congestion, which formed the basis for congestion
quantification. The CV due to traffic volume together with the mean speed (MV) was used to identify the start,
growth, and critical zones of congestion. Quantified level of congestion was then used as a measure of Level of
Service (LOS). Five levels of service designated by the letters A to E have been proposed.
1

INTRODUCTION

characteristic in modelling congestion, the fluctuations


in the speed, which is well indicative of the changes in
the freedom of movement of the driver in the traffic
stream than the average speed, has not yet been used
effectively. This may be because of the difficulty for
collecting or estimating speed data at very short time or
distance intervals. The advent of electronic Distance
Measuring Instruments (DMI) and portable computers
had made this type of detailed speed data readily
available. This paper investigates how the fluctuations
of speed along the roadway can be used for studying the
start and the growth of congestion and to quantify it on
urban midblock sections.

Over past few decades, traffic congestion in urban and


suburban areas has grown from mere annoyance to a
severe problem. Road congestion is spreading,
movements of goods and people are slowing to a crawl
and transportation cost escalating. This spectacular
increase in congestion can be viewed as a result of the
uncontrolled increase in the vehicle population geared
up by the snail's pace in the development of road
infrastructure and lack of proper traffic management.
This rapid increase in congestion has become a major
concern to the transportation professionals. Dealing
with congestion effectively demands for a rational
quantification technique of the phenomenon.

Even though the operating speed has been widely


accepted as the factor representing the operational

Efforts have been made by many researchers to


understand and quantify congestion (Deakin (1988),

BACKGROUND

* Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT, Calicut 673 601, e-mail: mvlr@nitc.ac.in
** Former Director, NIT, Calicut 673 601, e-mail: bannag123@yahoo.com

Written comments on this paper are invited and will be received upto 30th June, 2009.

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Turner (1992), Benekohal (1997)). However, it is found


that most of the works have concentrated on the area
wise quantification of congestion [Congestion Severity
Index (Lindley 1986), Roadway Congestion Index
(Lomax 1989), Percentage of Congested Freeway
(Lomax 1989), K-Factor (Lomax 1989), Lane Mile
Duration Index (Cottrel 1991), Freeway Congestion
Index (Thurgood 1995)].
Very little work has been done on the facility wise
quantification of congestion, which is very much
essential for the complete understanding of the
phenomenon. A significant effort in this aspect was
done by Sikdar et.al (1999). However, the measure was
not able to clearly demarcate the start of congestion,
which is the critical level of congestion and how the
congestion grows, even though they tried to break up
congestion into different levels. So there is need for a
methodology, which can be used as a tool for
understanding how, and when the congestion begins,
grows and finally becomes critical.
3

METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

3.1 Influencing Factors and Basis for


Quantification

volumes, there will be greater variations about the


desired speed [Gerlough and Huber (1975]. The
variations in speed may be due to
a) Roadway factors.
b) Driver factors.
c) Traffic factors.
3.2.1 Roadway Influence
The road geometry itself will cause the variations in
speed. The variations will be more if the road has more
number of curves, when compared to a straight road. In
case of urban areas the roadside development will
increase the speed variation.
3.2.2 Driver Influence
The driver characteristics and the way in which he
addresses a situation also influence the extent of
variations in the speed along a roadway. Characteristics
like the experience of the driver, physical and mental
setup of the driver etc affect the way in which he
behaves in the traffic stream and subsequently the
variation in the speed. For instance, a rash driver will
make his driving more of speed variation.
3.2.3 Traffic Volume Influence

The mean speed, which is commonly used as an


operating characteristic, may be misrepresentative by
itself of the true conditions on a stretch of roadway,
since two vehicles with identical mean speeds could
have significantly different speed profiles over the
course of their respective trips. So for this study the
Variation in Speed is accepted as the measure of
congestion and is used for modelling congestion. The
concept of speed variations and the different indices,
which were proposed and used by the researchers, are
described below.
3.2 Speed Variations
It is reasonable to assume that a driver will attempt to
maintain a uniform speed when he is travelling along a
roadway. Even at low traffic volumes, the speed will
fluctuate from the desired speed. In the presence of high

At lower volumes, the interaction between the different


vehicles is less so a driver can travel more or less at his
desired speed. However, as volume increases, the
interaction between the vehicles builds up which puts a
restriction on the driver and the speed with which he can
travel. This results in greater fluctuations about
operating speed. For congestion modelling, this effect is
of due importance.
3.3 Speed Variation Characteristics
To represent the extent of speed variation, various
researchers (Eisele et al (1996)) have used the following
indices:
a) Mean Velocity (MV) (km/h). (Average speed along
the roadway).
b) Velocity Noise (VN) (km/h). (Standard deviation of
speeds).

Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

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MODELLING CONGESTION ON URBAN ROADS USING SPEED PROFILE DATA

c) Coefficient of Variation of Speed (CV) (Ratio of


VN to MV).
d) Acceleration Noise (AN) (km/h/s). (Standard
deviation of acceleration).
e) Mean Velocity Gradient (MVG). (Ratio of AN to
MV).

DATA COLLECTION

The data needed to fulfil the chosen objective include :


a) Speed data at small time intervals along the
road.
b) Traffic volume data during speed
measurements.
The study for the work is conducted in the city of Calicut
in Kerala. A pilot survey for the work was carried out to
identify the roads where severe traffic congestion exists
and six road links, on which mixed traffic conditions
prevail, were selected for study.
4.1 Data Collection Technique
The electronic Distance Measuring Instrument (DMI)
was found to be an invaluable tool for collecting speed
profile data. The DMI probe was connected to the
speedometer of the vehicle and data transfer cable was
connected to the serial port of a laptop computer. An
integrated software was developed using Visual Basic
for real time transfer of data from the DMI to the
computer. Fig. 1 shows a schematic diagram of the
instrumental setup.
A vehicle was randomly selected from the traffic stream
and was followed in the DMI equipped data collection
vehicle. At the beginning of each run the user enters the
information about the run such as the Starting point and
End point. The computer takes time and date from the

system clock and pastes this as the header in the data


file. The software also keeps track of the keys pressed to
mark the various road features. The speed was recorded
for every half-second and the data was stored in a file
along with the header indicating the time of the run, date
of the run, starting point and the end point. Runs were
made every 15 minutes during peak and off peak periods
on the selected road links.
Traffic volume observations were also made in
conjunction with the DMI data collection by conducting
traffic volume studies. 5-minute classified traffic
volume counts were taken simultaneously on each of
these selected road links.
F ILTERED DATA

40.00

(km/h)
SP EE D (K
mph)

Fig. 1 Instrumental Setup

20.00

0.00
0.00

40.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

UNF ILTER ED DA TA

SP EE D (K
mph)
(km/h)

Operating traffic volume, the easily measurable volume


characteristic of traffic is chosen as the influencing
factor and the quantification of congestion is based on
the observed relationship of the Speed Variation
Characteristics described above with Operating
volume.

20.00

0.00
0.00

0.40

0.80

DI STANCE

Fig. 2 Typical Speed Profile

Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

1.20

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ANJANEYULU & NAGARAJ ON

4.2 Filtering of Data


A sample out put from DMI is shown in Table 1. A close
examination of graphical representation of speed profile
data revealed the presence of some random variations or
noise in the data. This random noise tends to mask the
actual variations. So for further analysis, the data set is
to be filtered from random noise. While filtering, the
height and width of the peaks in the data should be
preserved. Low-pass filter named the Quadratic Spline
(Q S) filter was used for filtering. Typical filtered and
unfiltered speed profiles are shown in Fig. 2.
Table 1 Sample Output from Dmi
Time
in
S

Serial Cumulative Interval


Speed
No
Distance in Distance in
in
(m)
(ft)
(m) (ft) (m/s) (ft/s)

23

459

2021

6631

6.40

21 8.84

29

23

460

2027

6651

6.40

21 8.53

28

24

461

2034

6673

6.71

22 9.45

31

24

462

2040

6693

6.10

20 9.45

31

25

463

2047

6715

6.71

22 10.36 34

25

464

2053

6737

6.71

22 9.75

32

26

465

2060

6757

6.10

20 9.14

30

26

466

2066

6778

6.40

21 9.75

32

27

467

2072

6798

6.40

21 9.14

30

27

468

2078

6818

5.79

19 9.45

31

28

469

2084

6837

6.10

20 8.84

29

28

470

2089

6855

5.49

18 7.92

26

4.3 Development of Data Matrix


Following the filtering process, the DMI speed data files
were disaggregated into sections and further into
various road classes. The database composed of the
speed variation characteristics module and traffic
volume details module.
The speed variation characteristics module is a direct
result of the DMI run data. There were 107 runs for twolane two-way roads, and 53 runs for two-lane dual
carriageway roads. The various speed variation
characteristics were estimated for each run. Details of

only four links are presented here. Out of these four


links, links 1 & 2 are two-lane two-way and links 3 & 4
are two-lane dual carriageway type.
Classified volume counts collected during the peak and
off-peak hours were converted into Passenger Cars Per
Hour Per Lane (PCUPHPL) using PCU values
suggested by IRC : 106-1990 and based on the previous
works done at NIT, Calicut.
4.4 Operating Volume Vs Speed Profile Indices
To study the variation of the speed profile
characteristics with operating volume, these
characteristics were plotted against the operating
volume. Figs. 3 and 4 show the plots of various speed
profile indices for Links 1 and 3 respectively.
5 SELECTION OF THE INDICATOR OF
CONGESTION
Based on the relationship with the operating volume, a
speed variation characteristic has to be chosen as the
Indicator of congestion, which will form the basis for
congestion quantification. The chosen indictor should
clearly define the starting phase, growth phase and the
critical phases of congestion. The plots of speed
variation characteristics with respect to operating
volume are to be examined closely for the selection.
From the plots of Mean Velocity, it can be clearly
observed that irrespective of the road class, for all the
links there is only one trend observed, the decreasing
trend. Though it gives same relationship for all links, it
is not possible to clearly identify the different phases of
congestion.
Acceleration Noise and Mean Velocity Gradient do not
give any good trend for the two classes of roads, though
they show some trend for two-lane dual carriageway
roads. Very high scatter is observed for two-way single
carriageway roads.
Examination of the plot of Velocity Noise reveals a
fairly good picture of trends, an increasing trend with
lesser slope followed by an increasing trend of higher

Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

Velocity
Noise
Coefficient
Variation
(CV)
V e lo ci ty
N o ise(VN)
(V N )
C oe ffic ie nof
t of
V a r iatio nof
of Speed
S p ee d (C
V)

Acceleration
Noise
A c c e le r atio n N
ois e (A(AN)
N)

Mean
Velocity Gradient (MVG)
M e an V e lo c ity G r ad ie n t (M V G )

MODELLING CONGESTION ON URBAN ROADS USING SPEED PROFILE DATA

slope, a decreasing trend and an increasing trend with a


high slope.

3 0 .0 0

2 0 .0 0

1 0 .0 0

0 .0 0
8 .0 0

0 .0 0

5 0 0 .0 0

1 0 0 0 .0 0

1 5 0 0 .0 0

0 .0 0

5 0 0 .0 0

1 0 0 0 .0 0

1 5 0 0 .0 0

4 .0 0

0 .0 0
8 0 .0 0

The Coefficient of Variation of Speed gives the best


result than the velocity noise. The trends observed are
much clearer. Three zones of operation can be identified
on the plot.
Zone 1: This zone shows the increase in CV with
volume but at a lower rate.

4 0 .0 0

Zone 2: This zone indicates the increase in CV at a


higher rate.

0 .0 0
2 0 .0 0

0 .0 0

5 0 0 .0 0

1 0 0 0 .0 0

1 5 0 0 .0 0

Zone 3: This zone shows the decrease in CV with


volume at higher rate.

1 0 .0 0

0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0
M e anSeepd
S pe e d (M
V)
Mean
(MV)

69

0 .0 0

5 0 0 .0 0

1 0 0 0 .0 0

1 5 0 0 .0 0

5 0 0 .0 0

1 0 0 0 .0 0

1 5 0 0 .0 0

4 0 .0 0
3 0 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
1 0 .0 0

These three zones may be identified as the start zone


(Zone 1), the growth zone (Zone 2) and the critical zone
(Zone 3) of congestion. So CV can be well identified as
the Indicator of congestion.

0 .0 0
0 .0 0

O p e ra tin g v o lu m e (P C U P H P L )

tion
(CV)
CCoeffici
oe ffic ie ent
n t ofo fVVaria
a r iatio
n ofo fS Speed
p ee d (C
V)

Velocity
(VN)
ty NNoise
Noi
se(V
(VN
VVeloci
e lo ci ty
o ise
N ))

Coefficient of Variation of Speed (CV)

AAcceleratio
c c e le r atio n nNNoi
ois
ese(A(AN)
N(AN)
)
Acceleration
Noise

ea n
radient
MM
e an
V eVeloci
lo c ityty
GG
r ad
ie n t (M(MVG
VG ) )

Mean Velocity Gradient (MVG)

Fig. 3 Volume VS Speed Variations for Two-lane Two-way


Single Carriageway Road (Link 1)
30 .0 0

20 .0 0

10 .0 0

0 .0 0
4 .00

0 .00

50 0 .0 0

10 0 0 .0 0

0 .00

50 0 .0 0

10 0 0 .0 0

0 .00

50 0 .0 0

10 0 0 .0 0

0 .00

50 0 .0 0

10 0 0 .0 0

0 .00

50 0 .0 0
Ope ratin g volume (PCUPHPL )

10 0 0 .0 0

2 .00

0 .00
40 .0 0

20 .0 0

0 .0 0
10 .0 0

5 .0 0

0 .0 0

Mean
Seepd
(MV)
Mean
(MV)
M
e an SSpeed
pe e d (M
V)

40 .0 0
30 .0 0
20 .0 0

5.1 Possible Explanation for the Trend Observed


At lower volumes, CV increases at a lower rate due to
the fewer interactions between the vehicles. This is
indicated by the lower rate of increase in Zone 1. As
volume increases, the interactions between the vehicles
build up and as a result the variation in the speeds
increases which is indicted by the steep increase in CV
in Zone 2. This increase is due to the driver's
unwillingness to follow the traffic stream. As a result,
the driver accelerates and decelerates frequently. As the
volume further increases, the driver is forced to follow
the traffic stream. This results in a lower speed with
fewer variations. This is indicated by the decreasing
trend of CV at higher volumes as indicated in Zone 3. At
the upper limit of this zone a sudden increase in CV is
observed. This may be because of the stop and go
operations existing due to very high traffic volume. This
point can be taken as the congestion at its worst.

10 .0 0
0 .0 0

Fig. 4 Volume VS Speed Variation for Two-lane


Dual Carriageway Road (Link 3)

6 CONGESTION MODELLING
In the light of the above discussion, the congestion is
modelled using the Coefficient of Variation of speed as

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the basis. But before using the CV for congestion


modelling, some refinement of it is necessary. It was
noted from the plots of CV VS Volume (Figs. 3, 4) that
there is an indication of an intercept with the ordinate
axis for all the links. This intercept can be viewed as the
CV due to the road and driver. This component of
variation will vary from facility to facility. So in order to
develop a generalized methodology and to facilitate
comparison between various facilities, it is felt that the
effect of road and driver has to be separated out.
6.1 Separating the Volume Effect of Variation
Data for all the road links at free flow conditions, that is
when the volume effect is negligible, were collected.
The speed variation characteristics computed for these
runs correspond to the effect of road and driver. The CV
value due to traffic volume was obtained by separating
out CV due to road and driver.
6.2 Congestion Modelling
After removing the road and driver effects, the CV due
to volume was plotted with the operating volume and
using the enveloping technique, the data points were
enveloped by a smooth curve. The congestion
modelling is done using these curves.
Fig. 5 shows the curve for Link 1. By drawing tangents
to the curve at the points of inflexion, four break points
A, B, C, and D were identified as shown. O is the origin
of the curve. Point A is the point of initiation of
congestion. The rate of increase in CV with volume is
very less in this zone OA as indicated by the flatter
slope. B is the point at which the congestion starts
becoming critical and at C, the congestion is critical.
This transformation is indicated by the steeper slope of
the curve indicating the higher rate of increase in CV
with volume. Congestion is severe beyond C, and
beyond D, there is a steep rise in CV. This is due to the
STOP and GO operations that exist in the traffic stream.
In between C and D is a zone where the traffic stream is
with lesser speed and fewer variations. O is the point of
zero congestion and D is the point of severe congestion
and can be considered as 100 percent congestion.

Fig. 5 CV VS Volume (Link 1)

To normalize the above break points, the traffic volume


at these points is divided by the volume at 100 percent
congestion. Thus congestion can be represented on a
0100 scale.
Now consider a horizontal section XX in Fig 5. It can be
noted that there are three flow levels corresponding to
the same CV value. So to separate these zones, another
variable, which shows a single trend, is needed. Mean
velocity, which shows a single decreasing trend, is used
for this purpose. The mean speeds at all the points are
normalised by dividing it by the free flow speed.
Figs. 6, 7, 8, and 9 shows the complete congestion
modelling for the different road links No. 1, 2, 3 and 4.
CV values of Link 2 at A, B, C, and D are higher and the
corresponding operating volumes are lower compared
to that of link 1. This may be because Link 2 is located in
a market area. The road suffers from heavy roadside
development and high pedestrian interaction which
results in higher variations and lesser capacity. Dividing
the CV and volume values of Link 2 by that of Link 1
reveals that a correction factor of 1.075 can be applied
for CV and 0.90 for Volume. Similar patterns can be
observed for Links 3 and 4. For Link 3, CV values are
higher and volumes lower compared to that of Link 4

Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

MODELLING CONGESTION ON URBAN ROADS USING SPEED PROFILE DATA

due to the location characteristics of Link 3. A correction


factor of 1.05 can be applied for CV and 0.96 for
volume.
LEVEL OF SERVICE BASED ON
CONGESTION

The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) defines the


Level of Service as a semi qualitative measure for
describing the operating conditions for a traffic stream
as it is felt and perceived by drivers/passengers from the
use of the roadway section. In HCM and other similar
guidelines, operating speed alone is taken as a

MEAN VELOCITY (km/h)

MEAN VELOCITY (km/h)

(km/h)

Fig. 7 Congestion Modelling (Link 2)

Fig. 6 Congestion Modelling (Link 1)

Fig. 8 Congestion Modelling (Link 3)

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a quantitative manner.
From the congestion modelled for the various roads,
five zones of flow can be identified. They are OA, AB,
BC, CD and beyond D. The operating conditions and
congestion severity varies from zone to zone. Each of
these zones can be considered as a level of service of the
road facility. So there are five levels of service from A to
E, based on the quantified congestion levels. Table 2 & 4
gives the levels of service for different types of roads.

MEAN VELOCITY (km/h)

Now considering Link 2 as the standard road link to


represent the two lane two-way single carriageway
category, the Level of Service criteria for this type of
facility are shown in Table 3. If the road section is
located in the CBD area with high pedestrian
interruptions, the corresponding CV values for various
LOS should be multiplied by a correction factor of
1.075.
Table 2 Level of service for Two-lane Two-way Roads

Link

Variable

LOS A LOS B LOS C LOS D

Link 1 % Congestion 0-25


CV

25-55

0-4

Mean speed

55-80 80-100

LOS E
>100

4-18.6 18.6-39 39-16.5 16.5->39

0.9 VF 0.75 VF 0.65 VF 0.58 VF <0.58VF

Link 2 % Congestion 0-25

25-55

55-80 80-100

>100

4.3-20

20-42 42-17.5 17.5->42

CV

0-4.3

Mean speed

0.9 VF 0.75 VF 0.65 VF 0.58 VF <0.58VF

Fig. 9 Congestion Modelling (Link 4)

quantitative measure of effectiveness (MOE) and the


whole range of operating conditions are grouped into six
different levels of service, designated by letters A to F.
But many factors such as freedom to manoeuvre, traffic
interruptions, comfort, convenience and safety were
considered qualitatively.
The quantified congestion is the loss of freedom of
movement that accounts for the variation of speed level
with increase in traffic under prevailing roadway, traffic
and control conditions. So the congestion level is a
better measure of effectiveness (MOE) to define LOS in

VF = Free flow Speed


Table 3 Level of Service Criteria for Two-lane
Two-way Roads

Criteria

LOS A

LOS B

LOS C

LOS D

LOS E

% Congestion

0-25

25-55

55-80

80-100

>100

CV

0-4

4-18.6

18.6-39 39-16.5 16.5->39

0.9 VF

0.75 VF

0.65 VF

Mean speed

Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

0.58 VF

<0.58VF

MODELLING CONGESTION ON URBAN ROADS USING SPEED PROFILE DATA

Table 4 Level of Service for Two-lane


Dual Carriageway Roads
Link Variable
LOS A LOS B LOS C LOS D LOS E
% Congestion
Link 3 CV
Mean speed

0-25

25-55

0-2

2-9

55-80 80-100

>100

9-23

6->23

23-6

0.95 VF 0.80 VF 0.70 VF 0.65 VF <0.65VF

% Congestion
Link 4 CV
Mean speed

0-25

25-55

55-80

NA

NA

0-2

2-9

9-23

NA

NA

NA

NA

0.95 VF 0.80 VF 0.70 VF

NA = Not observed.
Now considering Link 4 as the standard road link to
represent the two-lane dual carriageway category, the
Level of Service criteria for this type of facility are
shown in Table 5. If the road section is located in the
CBD area with high pedestrian interruptions, the
corresponding CV values for various LOS should be
multiplied by a correction factor of 1.05.
Table 5 Level of Service standards for
Two-lane Dual Carriageway Roads
Criteria

LOS A

LOS B

LOS C

LOS D

LOS E

% Congestion

0-25

25-55

55-80 80-100* >100*

CV

0-1.9

1.9-8.6

8.6-22 22-5.7* 5.7->22*

Mean speed

0.95 VF

0.80 VF

0.70 VF 0.65 VF* <0.65VF*

(* Obtained after applying correction factors to Link 3)


The developed methodology along with proposed
criteria for various levels of service was applied to
twenty-nine links in Calicut.
8

CONCLUSIONS

A new unified methodology has been developed using


the speed variations as the basis for quantifying
congestion and assessing the level of service.
Congestion is expressed in two ways viz., Percentage
Congestion and Coefficient of Variation of Speed. The
methodology yields a much clearer picture of
congestion compared to the similar works done. It is
possible to predict the start of congestion and the critical

73

level of congestion in a more clear way considering the


behaviour of vehicles in the stream.
Five zones of operating conditions were identified, each
one corresponding to a particular level of congestion.
Each of these zones can be considered as a level of
service of the road facility. So five levels of service, A,
B, C, D and E, have been proposed based on the
quantified congestion. For each of these levels of
service, the demarcation limits in terms of three
parameters; Percentage Congestion, Coefficient of
Variation of speed and Mean Velocity are suggested.
The consistent results observed for the two types of road
facilities give scope for developing standards for
congestion modelling.
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Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

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Journal of the Indian Roads Congress, January-March 2009

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