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Trump DA

Notes
**Most of this evidence is absolute garbage, so please, please dont read this in a
round.

**1NC Mods**

Generic
Trump will lose :(
Brown 12/11/15 (Lara -Ph.D., is an associate professor and the program director of the Political
Management Program in the Graduate School of Political Management at The George Washington University,, Why
Trump Will Lose http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/12/11/donald-trump-wont-win-as-arepublican-or-an-independent)//kbuck
Celebrity businessman Donald Trump is a loser. While his die-hard supporters are sure to protest this logic with an
endless number of self-righteous platitudes and personal insults that are as shallow as their understanding of presidential politics,

Trump will not win either the Republican nomination or the White
House as an independent candidate. As Nate Silver inferred correctly from the Robert Costa and Tom
the fact remains that

Hamburger article in the Washington Post on Friday, "the GOP would rather have a contested convention than resign itself to Trump

the Republican Party would rather implode than allow Trump to


earn its party's official nomination. More to the point, this outcome is not unprecedented by
any means. When the parties have had ambitious and opportunistic candidates who
were unacceptable to a large majority of regular partisans, but were the favorites of a sizable minority, the
parties have regularly chosen division over unification. And intriguingly, when they have done this,
winning." Said another way,

they haven't always lost the general election. Consider the Democrats in 1948, when the national party backed a civil rights
platform promoted by President Harry Truman, angering southerners and prompting them to call their own convention in Alabama to
select a regional ticket. At their meeting, they chose South Carolina Gov. Strom Thurmond to be the States' Rights Party's
presidential nominee. While Republicans cheered their opponent's split, believing that with the tumult and the Democrats' poor
showing in the 1946 congressional elections, they were on the road to winning the White House, Truman upset the conventional
wisdom and the newly created polling industry. Despite losing about 5 percent of the national vote to both factions that had split
from the Democrats (Dixicrats and Progressives), Truman managed to win a popular vote plurality (49.6 percent) and an electoral
vote majority (57 percent). More recently, in 1980, Republican Rep. John Anderson left his party when he realized that despite some
strong showings in early primaries, a presidential nomination was not likely in the offing. Running as an independent candidate, he
chose a Democratic running mate, Wisconsin Gov. Patrick Lucey, and issued a substantive platform, taking positions that amounted
to a "wallet on the right, heart on the left" ideology. Come June, Anderson was polling in the mid-twenties and Republican nominee
Ronald Reagan was behind the increasingly unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter. In the end, Anderson won less than 7 percent of the
popular vote and no electoral votes. Reagan won the popular vote over Carter, and managed to post an electoral vote landslide. A
few more dramatic examples from further back in our nation's history, which did lead to general election losses, included the
Democrats split between Sen. Stephen Douglas and Vice President John Breckinridge in 1860. The Republicans also went through an
ordeal in 1912, when former President Theodore Roosevelt asked the Republicans to throw over the current occupant of the White
House, William Howard Taft, in favor of his candidacy. While Roosevelt won more primaries, the delegates stood behind Taft, and
failed to even place in nomination Roosevelt's name. After the convention, Roosevelt's supporters convened an alternate convention
and awarded him the Progressive Party's presidential nomination. Roosevelt, the most successful third party candidate in history,
earned more than 27 percent of the popular vote and nearly 17 percent of the electoral votes. He still lost. What's the lesson from

The probability of Trump earning the Republican nomination when he is at


most likely to garner about a third of the GOP delegates is very low perhaps, less
than 10 percent. And here's why he's unlikely to win more delegates than that: Winning national party
delegates is along, hard, and complicated process . It happens on a state-by-state basis, under different
this history?

rules, and over a period of five months. Heck, even if Donald Trump were to win Iowa (which he isn't likely to do and which would
then likely cause his campaign's premise of him being a winner to fall apart), his delegates would have to make it through three
more rounds of selection (at the county, district and state conventions) before they were empowered to travel to Cleveland, Ohio, to
cast their votes for Trump at the national convention. This means that there are opportunities for local party leaders, for example,
Sen. Ted Cruz's latest endorser Bob Vander Plaats, to rework rules and mount delegate substitution efforts long before July.

But, he thinks domestic surveillance is key to stopping all the


Muslims from killing us all.
Nimmo 15 (Kurt exclusive writer for infowars, 11/19/15 Trump Surveillance State Will Combat Islam
http://www.infowars.com/trump-surveillance-state-will-combat-islam/)//kbuck

Trump said, security is going to rule under his administration . Were going to have
to do things that we never did before, he responded when asked if he would permit the use of warrantless
searches at the expense of the Fourth Amendment. And some people are going to be upset
about it, but I think that now everybody is feeling that security is going to rule. And certain things will be
done that we never thought would happen in this country in terms of information
and learning about the enemy . And so were going to have to do certain things that were frankly

unthinkable a year ago. He was then asked if heightened surveillance would require the registration of Muslims in a
database and mandate special identification. Were

going to have towere going to have to


look at a lot of things very closely. Were going to have to look at the mosques. Were going to have to
look very, very carefully. Trump also praised former NYPD commissioner Ray Kelly, the architect
of New Yorks Muslim surveillance program . Under Kelly the NYPD Intelligence Division
conducted a suspicionless surveillance program of Muslims throughout New York
City and every mosque within 100 miles of New York. The program extended to Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New
Jersey, and other states. The program had the characteristics of an advanced police state
mapping of Muslim communities, photo and video surveillance, police informants,
police rakers (ethnic cops who blended in Muslim communities), the widespread tracking of individuals and
intelligence databases of the sort Trump endorsed. Muslims sued the NYPD over the program. In October the 3rd
Circuit Court of Appeals found the Muslim plaintiffs raised sufficient allegations of equal-protection violations and
reversed a decision made last year by a judge to dismiss the case. Others have gone further than Trump in calling
for draconian measures aimed at Muslims. For instance, David Bowers, a Democrat mayor in Virginia. Im reminded
that President Franklin D. Roosevelt felt compelled to sequester Japanese foreign nationals after the bombing of
Pearl Harbor, and it appears that the threat of harm to America from ISIS now is just as real and serious as that from
our enemies then, Bowers said.

And, this resonates with the popular majority. Racisms the


new fad.
Lopez 15 (German writer for vox, 12/7/15, Donald Trump's Islamophobic
rhetoric resonates with many Republicanshttp://www.vox.com/policy-andpolitics/2015/12/7/9868702/donald-trump-islamophobia-republicans)//kbuck
Donald Trump's call to bar Muslims from entering the country is certainly more
repugnant in just about every way constitutionally, morally, and politically than anything any other
Republican presidential candidate has called for since the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. But it's also not a
total outlier. In fact, it's the latest example of escalating rhetoric about Islam across
the Republican field. Even more troublingly, the Islamophobic fervor is actually reflective of
what a large portion of the public believes, according to recent polling. So while Trump's
comments might seem outlandish, they actually represent a larger, troubling shift in politics and
America broadly. The Republican candidates have been making increasingly
Islamophobic remarks Much of the discussion about Islamophobia has fallen on
Trump, who wrongly claimed that thousands of people in New Jersey comprising
"a heavy Arab population" celebrated 9/11 in its immediate aftermath, and briefly
called for a national registry of all Muslim people in the US . And to be sure, his latest proposal goes
above and beyond what any candidate has said. But Trump's Islamophobic comments are part of a broader trend within the
Republican field: Over the past few months, particularly in the weeks following the terrorist attack in Paris, Republican candidates
have increasingly targeted Muslims in their rhetoric. Here are a few examples: Before the Paris attacks, in September, Marco Rubio
said he was primarily concerned about Christian refugees from Syria, although he was reportedly open to accepting more Syrian
refugees, including Muslims, until the Paris attacks. After the Paris attacks in November, Ted Cruz said, "President Obama and Hillary
Clinton's idea that we should bring tens of thousands of Syrian Muslim refugees to America: it is nothing less than lunacy." Shortly
after, Jeb Bush called for preferential treatment of Syrian refugees who are Christian, and said Muslim refugees should go through a
more restrictive process. Last week, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul voted for a legislative amendment that would halt all immigration from
dozens of Muslim countries with terrorist networks. If you look at these comments, a timeline of sorts appears one in which

Republicans

increasingly call for excluding Muslim people from certain immigration policies. From this perspective, Trump's
call to exclude all Muslims, instead of just certain refugees or immigrants from certain countries, is a natural escalation of where all
this rhetoric has been going. Now, several Republican candidates have come out and called Trump's comments too far including
Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, and Lindsey Graham. But they are in some ways condemning a trend that their party has built up. What's

They know they are pandering


to a very sizable portion of Americans , particularly within the Republican base. The
escalating Islamophobia reflects a broader problem in America especially the
Republican electorate The Republican rhetoric is emblematic of a broader problem
in the US: Increasingly, it seems like major segments of country and Republicans
worse, Republican candidates are not making these types of comments off the cuff.

in particular share ideas that can only be described as Islamophobic. A YouGov survey in
November found, for example, that 40 percent of Americans believe Muslims should be required
to register in a national government database a level of support much higher
than other religious groups included in the poll . Republicans liked the idea more than their counterparts:
49 percent of Republican respondents voiced support, compared with 41 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents. In

56 percent of Americans agree that "the


values of Islam are at odds with American values and way of life," up from 47 percent in 2011.
September 2015, the Public Religion Research Institute found that

Again, Republicans were much more likely to hold this view: 76 percent of Republicans did, compared to 43 percent of Democrats.
More polls reported similar results, as Vox's Max Fisher previously explained: A February poll showed that 54 percent of Republican

only 49
percent of Republicans there believed that Islam should be legal, with 30 percent saying it
respondents believe that Obama "deep down" is best described as Muslim. By September, an Iowa pollfound that

should be illegal and 21 percent "unsure." Among Trump supporters in Iowa, hostility toward Muslims was higher but not that much

83 percent of Republicans,
say that Muslims should be barredfrom the presidency. Together, all of these findings paint a
terrifying picture. It's worrying that major presidential candidates are making Islamophobic
remarks. But it's even more worrying that a lot of Americans and maybe a
plurality or majority of Republicans seem to agree with the ugly rhetoric.
higher: 36 percent said Islam should be outlawed Fifty-seven percent of Americans, and

This reinstalls institutional racism. (as if it were gone?)


Boykin 15 - (Keith - a New York Times best-selling author, TV commentator, public speaker, actor and
educator., 12/11/15, Donald Trump and The Blacks http://www.bet.com/news/national/2015/12/11/donald-trumpand-the-blacks.html)//kbuck
Don't act like you're surprised. Donald Trump has been telling us for years that he's a racist bigot.
Now it's clear for everyone to see. Maybe we didn't take him seriously. Maybe we brushed it off because he's a
celebrity. Or maybe because he's a billionaire. Or perhaps because he's the butt of so many late night comedians'
jokes. After all, Jon Stewart, the former host of The Daily Show, practically begged for Trump to enter the

Trump's circus act is no longer funny. Not just because


Trump keeps spewing increasingly outrageous venom at people of color. And not
just because he now wants to ban all Muslims from coming to the United States. But
because millions of Republican voters out there in America are eating it up. Trump's
racism is not new. It can be traced back several decades , as Gawker's Jason Parham
demonstrated recently in a compilation of the GOP frontrunner's comments about "the
Blacks." Here was the spoiled rich kid from Queens who started his career with a "small loan of a million dollars"
presidential race last spring. But

from his wealthy father. And yet, he complained in 1989, against all evidence to the contrary, that AfricanAmericans have a tremendous advantage over whites in the job market. "If I were starting off today, I would love to

It was Trump
again in 1991 who trafficked in ugly racial and religious stereotypes when he whined
that he didn't like Black guys counting his money . "The only kind of people I want counting my
money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day." As Trump said then, "laziness is a trait
in blacks." The same Donald Trump who spent several months in 2011 questioning
the authenticity of PresidentObama's birth certificate and demanding to see the
president's college transcripts then turned around and claimed "I have a great relationship with the
be a well-educated Black, because I believe they do have an actual advantage," Trump said.

Blacks." The Blacks? Who says that? And, more importantly, who believes that? Well, if you're a part of a small
group of pimped-out Black pastors who endorsed Trump last month in New York or a former reality TV star who has
made a name for herself by generating silly controversies, you might believe it. Or you might simply be exploiting
Trump for 15 minutes of fame of your own. I'm not fond of quoting Rev. Jamal Bryant for much of anything, but he
hit the nail on the head last month on CNN when he challenged Pastor James Davis about meeting with Trump. After
comparing the pastors to prostitutes, he apologized for the language and corrected himself. "Prostitutes get
money," Bryant said. "And the 100 that went in there walked away with nothing, they did it for free." Pastors
endorsing Trump? And black pastors at that. Trump is the guy who claimed his Art of the Deal is hissecond favorite
book behind the Bible but couldn't quote a single Bible verse when asked to do so in August. He's the guy who

described the Christian sacrament of communion as the time "when I drink my little wine, have my little cracker."
And he's the guy who said he never asked for forgiveness when he did something wrong because "I don't bring God
into that picture." And this is the guy Black Christian pastors want to endorse? With such a shallow understanding of
Christianity, it's no surprise that Trump's minority outreach adviser has developed a typically Trump-styled halfassed pseudo-Christian plan to win "100 percent" of the Black vote next year. "Youve got to bring back God into the
neighborhood," Trump's adviser told Yahoo News. As if God weren't already in Black communities all across the
nation. And, as if Donald Trump, of all people, were the man to bring his gold-plated version of God to the po' black
folk in the 'hood. What's more shameful is that any self-respecting Black pastor would continue to support Trump
while his rhetoric opens the closet door for every redneck racist in America, and more specifically in the Republican
Party. So when Speaker of the House Paul Ryan complains that Trump's proposed Muslim ban is "not who we are as

Donald Trump doesn't represent everyone in the party, but he


represents a strong plurality who are anti-Black, anti-Latino, anti-Muslim and
desperate to "Make America Great Again" by taking us back to some fictional time
in the past when "those people" weren't such a problem . That's why he's leading in the polls.
a party," count me as a skeptic. Of course,

The party that spent the past seven years demonizing President Obama as a socialist, Muslim, Kenyan outsider may
not have created Donald Trump, but they certainly created the conditions that allowed him to flourish. And any
Black leader who sells out his community for thirty pieces of Donald Trump's silver will bear just as much blame.

Borders
The 1AC shifts the focus of politics to the border.
Root 15 (Wayne - Wayne Allyn Root is known as the Capitalist Evangelist. Waynes latest book is: The
Power of RELENTLESS! Wayne is a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, bestselling author, international
business speaker, serial entrepreneur and conservative media personality appearing on over 5,000 interviews in
the past five years. , 11/16/15 Islamic State Terrorist Attack Proves Donald Trump was Right About Border and
Immigration http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/islamic-state-terrorist-attack-proves-donald-trump-was-rightabout-border-and-immigration/)//kbuck
Donald Trump is brilliant. Trump is a chess master. His instincts about immigration and the border were 100 percent

with the terrible Islamic State terrorist attack in Paris, immigration and
our open border with Mexico just became the No. 1 issue in America. All the
presidential candidates are now playing on Trumps home turf. Trump is in
command of the most important issue in America . Next, always remember Trump wrote
on the money. First of all,

the book on negotiation. Its called The Art of the Deal. Well his new book should be called The Art of the

Trump
understands this is all a negotiation. Just the threat of deporting millions of illegal
aliens puts Trump in the drivers seat to get what he really wants. So what does he really
Immigration Deal. Will Trump ever get the chance to deport 12 to 15 million illegal aliens? Maybe not. But

want? Whats realistic for a conservative president with a Republican Senate and House? My educated guess is
Trump wants the following three things and with the threat of deportation of millions hanging in the air, hell
negotiate to get what he really wants! First and foremost, Trump wants to build a wall. We must gain control of our
own border. What was the first thing the Socialist president of France did after a massive terrorist attack? He closed
the borders. Even a Socialist just proved how important it is to control your borders.

Its how you keep your

citizens safe from terror. Its literally the difference between life and death. Walls work. Ask Israel. After
they built their wall, terrorist attacks were stopped cold in their tracks. If America wants to keep Islamic
State out of America, we must seal and control our border. Democrats will be
playing on defense with Trump in the White House . Theyll be so busy fighting mass
deportation, Trump will easily get his wall .

That makes Trump win


McPherson 11/11 (Lindsey writer for roll call, 11/11/15 The Trump Way on
Immigration Suits Republicans, Poll Shows, www3.atr.rollcall.com/immigrationreform-donald-trump-gop-voters/)//kbuck
Republicans need to make gains with Hispanic voters in 2016, but that reality is complicated by the fact that

more

adults support Donald Trumps hard-line stance on immigration, a new Economist


Group/YouGov Poll finds. A whopping 49 percent of Republicans and independents who lean to the
GOP say Trump is the presidential candidate who can best handle the issue well
ahead of Marco Rubio with 10 percent GOP support, Ted Cruz with 7 percent and Jeb Bush at 5 percent. The divide in
the GOP over how to address issues stemming from illegal immigration spilled over in the fourth Republican
presidential debate Tuesday. The opt-in, Internet survey was taken Nov. 5-9, before the economy-focused debate in
Milwaukee. Trump traded barbs with Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who called the front-runners idea to deport the
estimated 11 million immigrants who arrived in the U.S. illegally a silly argument that makes no sense. Bush
also attacked Trump, saying mass deportation would tear communities apart. Even having this conversation sends
a powerful signal, Bush said during the debate in Milwaukee. Theyre doing high-fives in the Clinton campaign

Trumps plan to end so-called birthright citizenship and send all


unauthorized immigrants back to their home countries helped propel him to the top
of polls this summer. Rubio and Bush both support a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants who
now when they hear this.

undergo a background check, learn English and pay fees or taxes. In another sign of GOP support for Trumps strict
immigration policies, more poll respondents reacted favorably to a comment by the real-estate mogul.

Sixty-five

percent of Republicans and the independents who lean that way agreed with this
statement: When Mexico sends its people, theyre not sending their best. Theyre
sending people that have lots of problems. Theyre bringing drugs. Theyre bringing
crime. Theyre rapists. Trump said that in June , but poll respondents werent told who said it. By
contrast, 77 percent of Republicans disagree with this comment: Yes, illegal immigrants broke the law, but its not
a felony. Its an act of love; its an act of commitment to your family. Poll respondents werent told that Bush said
the comment in April. A wide-range of Republicans, including 2008 presidential nominee John McCain, have said the
party could be in danger of losing the 2016 White House race if the GOP doesnt make gains with Hispanic voters.

That reinstalls institutional racism.


Boykin 15 - (Keith - a New York Times best-selling author, TV commentator, public speaker, actor and
educator., 12/11/15, Donald Trump and The Blacks http://www.bet.com/news/national/2015/12/11/donald-trumpand-the-blacks.html)//kbuck
Don't act like you're surprised. Donald Trump has been telling us for years that he's a racist bigot.
Now it's clear for everyone to see. Maybe we didn't take him seriously. Maybe we brushed it off because he's a
celebrity. Or maybe because he's a billionaire. Or perhaps because he's the butt of so many late night comedians'
jokes. After all, Jon Stewart, the former host of The Daily Show, practically begged for Trump to enter the

Trump's circus act is no longer funny. Not just because


Trump keeps spewing increasingly outrageous venom at people of color. And not
just because he now wants to ban all Muslims from coming to the United States. But
because millions of Republican voters out there in America are eating it up. Trump's
racism is not new. It can be traced back several decades , as Gawker's Jason Parham
demonstrated recently in a compilation of the GOP frontrunner's comments about "the
Blacks." Here was the spoiled rich kid from Queens who started his career with a "small loan of a million dollars"
presidential race last spring. But

from his wealthy father. And yet, he complained in 1989, against all evidence to the contrary, that AfricanAmericans have a tremendous advantage over whites in the job market. "If I were starting off today, I would love to

It was Trump
again in 1991 who trafficked in ugly racial and religious stereotypes when he whined
that he didn't like Black guys counting his money . "The only kind of people I want counting my
money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day." As Trump said then, "laziness is a trait
in blacks." The same Donald Trump who spent several months in 2011 questioning
the authenticity of PresidentObama's birth certificate and demanding to see the
president's college transcripts then turned around and claimed "I have a great relationship with the
be a well-educated Black, because I believe they do have an actual advantage," Trump said.

Blacks." The Blacks? Who says that? And, more importantly, who believes that? Well, if you're a part of a small
group of pimped-out Black pastors who endorsed Trump last month in New York or a former reality TV star who has
made a name for herself by generating silly controversies, you might believe it. Or you might simply be exploiting
Trump for 15 minutes of fame of your own. I'm not fond of quoting Rev. Jamal Bryant for much of anything, but he
hit the nail on the head last month on CNN when he challenged Pastor James Davis about meeting with Trump. After
comparing the pastors to prostitutes, he apologized for the language and corrected himself. "Prostitutes get
money," Bryant said. "And the 100 that went in there walked away with nothing, they did it for free." Pastors
endorsing Trump? And black pastors at that. Trump is the guy who claimed his Art of the Deal is hissecond favorite
book behind the Bible but couldn't quote a single Bible verse when asked to do so in August. He's the guy who
described the Christian sacrament of communion as the time "when I drink my little wine, have my little cracker."
And he's the guy who said he never asked for forgiveness when he did something wrong because "I don't bring God
into that picture." And this is the guy Black Christian pastors want to endorse? With such a shallow understanding of
Christianity, it's no surprise that Trump's minority outreach adviser has developed a typically Trump-styled halfassed pseudo-Christian plan to win "100 percent" of the Black vote next year. "Youve got to bring back God into the
neighborhood," Trump's adviser told Yahoo News. As if God weren't already in Black communities all across the
nation. And, as if Donald Trump, of all people, were the man to bring his gold-plated version of God to the po' black
folk in the 'hood. What's more shameful is that any self-respecting Black pastor would continue to support Trump
while his rhetoric opens the closet door for every redneck racist in America, and more specifically in the Republican
Party. So when Speaker of the House Paul Ryan complains that Trump's proposed Muslim ban is "not who we are as

Donald Trump doesn't represent everyone in the party, but he


represents a strong plurality who are anti-Black, anti-Latino, anti-Muslim and
desperate to "Make America Great Again" by taking us back to some fictional time
a party," count me as a skeptic. Of course,

in the past when "those people" weren't such a problem . That's why he's leading in the polls.
The party that spent the past seven years demonizing President Obama as a socialist, Muslim, Kenyan outsider may
not have created Donald Trump, but they certainly created the conditions that allowed him to flourish. And any
Black leader who sells out his community for thirty pieces of Donald Trump's silver will bear just as much blame.

**2NC Top**

A2: Third Party Win


Wont win electoral college and capital tradeoff prove.
Brown 12/11/15 (Lara -Ph.D., is an associate professor and the program director of the Political
Management Program in the Graduate School of Political Management at The George Washington University,, Why
Trump Will Lose http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/12/11/donald-trump-wont-win-as-arepublican-or-an-independent)//kbuck
So, with Trump unlikely to earn more than a third of Republican delegates and with the GOP more likely to stage a
contested convention than to give over its presidential nomination to an unacceptable candidate, shouldn't Trump

A third party candidacy would require him to invest millions


of dollars and organize a massive signature gathering efforts to obtain ballot access
in every state. His reward for his time and money would be that he'd lose the White
House. As mentioned above, Theodore Roosevelt, a former president, was the most successful third party
candidate and he still lost. Simply put, America's political institutions from the parties to the
Electoral College are designed to prevent the successful capture of them by both
dictators and mobs. As such, brute force won't work. Since Donald Trump knows
little else, his candidacy won't succeed.
pursue a third party candidacy?

A2: wont elect racist prez


Despite racial slurs, Trump can win the Republican caucus.
Aitken 12/11/15 (Roger writer for Forbes, US Presidential Election: Betting On Donald Trump
Winning Despite Controversial Remarks http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2015/12/11/us-presidentialelection-betting-on-donald-trump-winning-despite-controversial-remarks/)//kbuck

Who will follow Barack Obama as the 45th President of the United States in 11
months time? Democrat Hillary Clinton is the hot favourite by a country mile according to the latest odds, but I
wondered if Donald Trump, the Republican Party hopeful, could snatch victory at the 58th quadrennial US
Presidential election on 8 November 2016 despite recent controversial remarks ? There has certainly been a
storm of condemnation from Trumps fellow Republicans after the Presidential candidate and business mogul called for a ban on
Muslims entering the US albeit for a temporary period of time. Rival candidate Jeb Bushreferred to Mr Trump as being unhinged
and former US Vice-President Dick Cheney stated that it goes against everything we stand for and believe in. Adding to the flak,
the White House, Muslim and UN leaders also slammed Mr Trumps statement. Then weve had British Prime Minister (PM) and EtoneducatedDavid Cameron wading into the debate. A petition was also started in the UK to ban the businessman from entering Britain,
which has garnered over 500,000 signatures to date. Any such petition that reaches 100,000 would call for the matter to be debated
in the UK Parliament at Westminster. It would be pretty sensational if the New York-born business magnate, TV personality and a
major figure in American real estate, pulled it off and became the next US President. If nothing else he has caught the public
imagination since formally announcing his candidacy for the president in the 2016 election and has consistently been the Republican

The latest remarks have been talked about widely across the
media on both sides of the Atlantic in the wake of the Paris and Stateside terror
attacks. Perhaps it was a gamble on the PR front and of course as some say there is no such thing as bad publicity unless of
course you are Volkswagen and dont mind emission scandals. Yet he has certainly moved the debate. And, it hasnt
seemed to have dented his poll ratings either. Indeed, as of 9 December out of 231 polls from 33 pollsters
front-runner in public opinion polls.

covering the Republicanprimary race, the trends showed that Trump was at 35.6%. This is way up from just 4.9% polled on 2 June
2015. And, between these two periods his poll rating had climbed from 24.5% as of 3 August to 31.6% by 7 September, with a slight

The most recent polling data showed him being ahead of Ted Cruz
(15.4%), Ben Carson (12.5%) who had led the October poll, Marco Rubio (12.0%)
and Jeb Bush. Mr. Trumps odds to be elected president were once a laughable 100-1, but by early August 2015 they were
dip to 27.7% on 1 October.

down to 12-1. It makes one think that the unthinkable might happen.

Democrats lose the general


Fair 5/27 (Ray Fair, professor of economics at Yale University, has predicted 7 out of 9 elections, author of
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 5/27/15, In 2016's presidential race, the winner will be ...,
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0527-fair-election-prediction-20150527-story.html, 7/1/15, ACC)
Since 1978, based on data going back to 1916, I've documented how four conditions affect
voting patterns. The first is whether the president is running again. If so, this has a positive effect on votes for the
president. The second is how long a party has controlled the White House .

Voters like change; when


a party has been in power for two or more consecutive terms, this has a
negative effect on votes for that party's candidate. The third is the slight but persistent
bias in favor of the Republican Party. Finally, the state of the economy : A good economy at the time
of the election has a positive effect on votes for the incumbent party
candidate. The economic variables that matter are the rate of inflation and
output (GDP) growth. Of particular importance is GDP growth in the first three quarters of the election
year. These first three conditions are working against the Democrats in 2016. The
president is not running; the Democrats have been in power for two terms; there is that lingering Republican bias.

the economy has to be very strong


between now and the election for the Democrats to have a good chance of
winning. Most economists believe the economy will grow at about a 3%
annual rate between now and November 2016. If that happens, my equation predicts the
Democrats will win about 46% of the vote in a two-party contest . In order for them to win more
According to the equation behind my work, then,

than 50%, the economy would need to grow at about 4%, and even in that
case their predicted vote share would climb only slightly above the halfway
mark. My equation's average prediction error over the 25 elections since 1916 is between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage
points.

Assuming the economy does indeed grow at 3%, the probability that
the Democrats will win is low, between about 5% and 13%. Republicans have cause
for confidence. My analysis is, of course, based on the assumption that the future will be like the past. What if
voters start caring more about income inequality than economic growth, and perceive the Republicans to be poor

Shifts in
priorities can never be ruled out, but the best I can say is that the conditions that
sway voters appear to have been fairly stable for 100 years and my equation
has a fairly good track record. In seven of the nine contests between 1980 and 2012, my
equation correctly predicted which party would win the popular vote. It was
on that issue? Or what if the GOP nominates someone further from the mainstream than ever before?

wrong in 1992, when it predicted that Clinton would lose. (There was a strong third-party candidate that year, Ross
Perot, which may have been a problem.) And it was wrong in 2012, when it predicted President Obama would win
only 49% of the vote and he got 52%. All along, however, I said the prediction fell within the margin of error. A
prediction of the sort I have just made is different from predictions using polls .