After Paris, 3 Reasons the World Could Bid Adieu to Fossil Fuels

The new climate accord aims to accelerate the shift toward clean energy. How quickly can this
happen? A wind turbine stands in Guazhou, China. The world's largest emitter of carbon is also
a leader in adding renewable energy capacity. Now comes the real challenge: powering a world
without fossil fuels.
The Paris climate accord, in its ambition to cut planet-warming carbon emissions, calls for
a tectonic shift in energyin essence, a new global economy to be fueled by zero-carbon
sources such as solar and wind.
In the coming decades the world will have to say goodbye to coal, oil, and gas, said
German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks. The historic pact seeks to peak
emissions in a few decades and then eliminate them.
This shift could happennot because of the accord itself but because of technological
advances and an expanding cadre of influential supporters. Whether it happens quickly
enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is less clear.
What was once unthinkable has now become unstoppable?
Even if all the initial targets in Paris are met, well only be part of the
way there when it comes to reducing carbon from the atmosphere,
said President Barack Obama. After all, fossil fuels still power almost
all vehicles and generate two-thirds of the world's electricity . Obama
said that the accord won't solve the climate problem, but it signals a
turning point by setting up the architecture" for doing so.
That architecture includes the private sector. Business leaders
came to Paris in unprecedented numbers, and their
commitments give markets a clear signal of what the future will look like, said Ban Ki
Moon, secretary general of the United Nations. He added: What was once unthinkable has
now become unstoppable.
1. The Big Tent
Hundreds of businesses and thousands of regions and cities pledged to cut their emissions
as part of the Lima-Paris Action Agenda. The companies include Ikea, Coca-Cola, Dell,
General Mills, Kelloggs, Procter & Gamble, Sony, and Walmart.
Their combined pledges exceed Indias annual emissions or those of the global iron and
steel sectors, according to a report by Yales Data Driven Environmental Solutions . The
report said 15 of the worlds largest banks, with nearly $2 trillion in market value, made
financial commitments.
Beyond cutting emissions, cities also pledged to divest from fossil fuels . At the climate
talks, environmental activists said, Paris and 18 other French municipalities approved steps
to divest from companies that produce coal, oil or natural gas. They join at least 60 other
cities, including Oslo, Melbourne, and San Francisco, in 10 wealthy countriesthat support
full or partial divestment.
Tech titans stepped up. Microsoft founder Bill Gates announced a billionaires club of 28
investors, including Amazons Jeff Bezos and Facebooks Mark Zuckerberg, to help the
world shift from fossil fuels. Gates said they aim to get clean-energy ideas out of the lab
and into the marketplace. Theyll work with 20 countries, including the United States and
China, as part of Mission Innovation to double spending on clean energy research and
developmentto about $20 billionover the next five years.
This synergy paid off. Countries have been trying for years to craft an effective climate
agreement, said Bob Perciasepe, president of C2ES, the nonpartisan Center for Climate
and Energy Solutions. What made a difference this time was a groundswell from the front
linesmayors, governors and CEOs who showed theyre taking the lead and pressed
government to do more.
When it comes to the price of solar, even the most optimistic estimates have not been
optimistic enough
Scott Nyquist
This solar thermal power plant, with its parabolic trough, is part of upsurge in solar installations
as their costs decline.

2. Cheaper Renewables
Clean energy alternatives are gaining ground largely because
of their cost. Since 2008, prices have plummeted 90 percent
for LEDs, 60 percent for large-scale solar, and 40 percent for
wind power and batteries, according to a White House
statement.
As a result, U.S. wind energy production has tripled and solar
has increased more than 20-fold during the last seven years.
The Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group, says 2015 is shaping up to be the
strongest ever as it expects a record number of fourth-quarter installations.
Globally, wind and solar are powering ahead as well. The International Energy Agency
expects hydropower and other renewables will account for more than 26 percent of power
generation in 2020, up from 22 percent in 2013. By 2040, it projects non-hydro
renewables will provide half of all power in the European Union and slightly more than a
quarter in China, Japan, the U.S., and India.
Renewables are attracting capital. A recent study by Goldman Sachs says the combined
market size of low-carbon technologiesincluding wind, solar, LEDs, hybrid and electric
vehiclesnow exceeds $600 billion, about the size of the U.S. defense budget.
Their economics could improve even more. When it comes to the price of solar, even the
most optimistic estimates have not been optimistic enough, writes Sott Nyquist , director
of McKinsey & Company's Houston office, which expects solar will be competitive with
conventional fuels in most U.S. states by 2020.
In contrast, he says, coal is not likely to get much more efficient, and tighter U.S.
regulations are driving up its costs. For gas, the best technologies in use are already
highly efficient, he adds, but for renewables, particularly solar, substantive
improvements in cost and efficiency are not only possible but likely.
Indeed, researchers are making solar cells that are smaller, see-through, and sticky so
they can be used almost anywherewhether roads, golf courses, or landfills. In a
new white paper, Gates talks about the ability of solar paint to transform any surface into
a solar panel.
Also improving: batteries and other means to store solar and wind power for times when
the sun doesnt shine and the wind doesnt blow. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is building a
gigafactory in Las Vegas to mass-produce batteries for not only his electric cars but also
solar-powered homes and business.
3. Promise of Technology
Thats just the beginning. Scientists are working to create marketable new biofuels, wave
and tidal power, fusion energy and smaller, safer nuclear reactors . The Toyota Mirai, a
hydrogen fuel-cell car, just debuted in California, and Gates' startup TerraPower aims for
initial rollout of its own advanced nuclear reactor in China.
Gates says that while solar and wind power could help meet the 50 percent increase in
global energy demand expected by 2050, "we also need to invent new approaches."
Jeffrey D. Sachs, a Columbia University economist, agrees. His Deep Decarbonization
Pathways Project, which has enlisted 16 countries to figure out ways to move away from
fossil fuels, finds currently available technologies won't likely be good enough to complete
this transformation. It says some, such as electric cars and offshore wind turbines, will
need to become better and cheaper, and some countries may need more nuclear power.
The world will need to act quickly. Experts say it will likely have to stop all greenhouse gas
emissions by mid-century in order to meet the UN accords aspirational goal: limit the
increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The
world's temperature has already risen nearly one degree.
Quitting fossil fuels is a herculean task. Despite severe smog thats choking their cities,
China and India plan to build coal-fired power plants so they can cheaply expand access to
electricity. Africa, home to half of the worlds people who live without power, is also looking
at fossil fuels to meet part of the expected surge in its energy demand.
In the U.S., the worlds second-largest carbon emitter after China, critics in Congress
threaten to bar federal funding to implement Obamas clean energy agenda, and
some business leaders remain skeptical. The Paris climate conference delivered more of
the same lots of promises and lots of issues still left unresolved, said Stephen D. Eule
of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce . Plus, cheap gas has boosted sales of bigger vehicles
instead of energy-sipping cars.

Yet many scientists doing cutting-edge research believe technology can overcome
seemingly insurmountable challenges.
Harvard chemist Daniel Nocera, who built an "artificial leaf" to produce hydrogen fuel, is
one of them. He likes to tell the story of how in the 1890s, New York City was swamped
by horse manure. Then the primary mode of transportation, horses were dropping more
than a million pounds a day, creating a sanitation crisis.
The automobile arrived and almost overnight, it replaced horses and cleaned up the
streets. Nocera says: Shift happens.