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EARTH
SECURITY
GROUP
po
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Water Sca
rcity
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Water Sca
rcity
Contents
Sponsors
Introduction
01
Executive Summary
02
04
Blueprint 1
Chinas soybean demand and
South Americas deforestation
06
Blueprint 2
The impact of Germanys energy
revolution on Russia and Turkey
11
Blueprint 3
India and Nigerias rice business
as a driver of their food security
16
Blueprint 4
Switzerlands dependence
on West Africas cocoa
21
Blueprint 5
South East Asias transboundary
haze: health risk liabilities
26
Blueprint 6
Converging interests in the
Nile Basin around food security
32
Blueprint 7
Mexicos food security and
climate change in the USA
38
Methodology
40
References
48
Acknowledgments
52
Copyright
Earth Security Group 2015
The marks Earth Security Group and
logotype, the Earth Security Index, the
radial diagram and the presentation of
the information in this document are the
property of Earth Security Ltd. and
cannot be reproduced without prior
written consent.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed in
the Earth Security Index 2015 report
reflect only the views and opinions of
the Earth Security Group.
Note
All currency $ refers to US dollars
unless otherwise stated.
01
Introduction
Managing global
resource risks and
resilience in the
21st century
Alejandro Litovsky
Founder & CEO,
Earth Security Group
Executive
Summary
Key Point 1
Sustainability pressures in
BRICS + MINT economies will
amplify global risks but also
opportunities for sustainable
investment
Key Point 2
The security of supply of
global commodities requires
social and environmental
resilience
Key Point 3
Multinationals can reduce
their exposure and geopolitical tensions by using
business diplomacy to
advance sustainability
innovation
02 / 03
Key Point 4
Regional markets are
exposed to transboundary
sustainability pressures
requiring public-private
collaboration across borders
Nile Basin
Population
Governance
Energy
Fiscal
Demographic Pressure
The countrys population
growth rate and density.
Government Effectiveness
The quality and independence
of the public service and
the effectiveness of policy
implementation.
Domestic Supply
The ability of the domestic
energy system to meet energy
demand not accounting for
energy imports.
Instability
The sustainability of the
public debt and likelihood of a
sovereign debt crisis.
Accountability
The level of transparency and
accountability of government
decisions.
Lack of Access
The proportion of the
population without access to
electricity.
Rule of Law
The quality of contract
enforcement, property rights,
the police, the courts, and
the likelihood of crime and
violence.
Carbon Intensity
Carbon emissions from
electricity generation and
industry.
Resource Governance
The quality, transparency and
accountability of governance
in the oil, gas and mining
sectors.
al
Fisc
En
er
gy
on
ity
of
Ac
ce
s
est
Resource
ns
te
In
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
rb
Ca
La
Dom
ic S
upp
ly
Governa
nce
aw
Rule of L
G o ve r n
lity
abi
a nc
t
oun
Acc
es
Une
mp
loy
me
nt
nG
at
uc
Go
io
n
er
ap
c
fe
Ef
nt
n
ive
Ed
Po
pul
a ti
on
phic Pres
sure
Education Gap
The extent and equity of
education.
Inflation
The increase in consumer
prices and decline in the
purchasing value of money.
Demogra
Unemployment
The levels of unemployment
and youth unemployment in
the country.
04 / 05
Water
Climate
Land
Food
Water Scarcity
The availability of water in the
country throughout the year.
Infrastructure Risk
The vulnerability of cities and
infrastructure to adverse
climate impacts.
Tenure Insecurity
The lack of security that a
persons land rights will be
recognized and protected.
Food Scarcity
The availability of food to meet
the needs of the population,
through domestic production
and imports.
Exposure to Extremes
The level of exposure of a
country to extreme weather
events measured in human
and economic losses.
Degradation
The reduction or loss of land
ecosystem services and the
lands productivity, including
drivers like soil erosion,
salinity and deforestation.
Pollution
The percentage of wastewater
in the country that is treated.
Virtual Imports
Water that is imported
by being embedded in
commodities and products.
Deforestation
The loss of forest cover of a
countrys territory.
Unaffordability
The ability of poor households
to purchase the food they
need.
Nutrition Gap
The populations access to
safe and nutritious food.
Import Dependence
The countrys reliance on
food imports.
po
luti
rt
on
lI
isk
Vi
rt
ua
R
re
u
ct
ru
st
a
fr
In
ate
im
Cl
Pol
Water Sc
arcity
Wat
e
es
o
re t
rem
Ext
su
xpo
security
Tenure In
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Degrada
tion
Def
ore
sta
Fo
o
dS
ca
rc
it
bi
a
rd
y
lit
on
Gap
endence
ep
Import D
riti
Nut
fo
af
Un
od
Fo
tion
80
90
100
Land
00
Score
Population
Demographic Pressure
56.11
Governance
Rule of Law
59.56
Energy
Domestic Supply
54.84
Carbon intensity
64.74
Water
Scarcity
60.89
Pollution
80.33
Climate
Exposure to Extremes
63.41
Land
Tenure Insecurity
82.22
Deforestation
66.31
Food
Import Dependence
57.63
Blueprint 1
Chinas soybean
demand and
South Americas
deforestation
Strategic Opportunity 1
For international companies in the
soybean value chain
Strategic Opportunity 2
For the governments of Paraguay
and Argentina
06 / 07
Trading companies are spending $2.5
billion on docks, barge fleets, and
terminals along the Amazon River and
its tributaries to boost Brazils shipping
capacity.6 Argentinas easier access to
Between 2000 and 2010, soybean exports
ports means lower production costs than
from Brazil to China grew over tenfold to
in Brazil.7 In Paraguay, soy production
roughly 19 million tonnes (MT) per year,
1
has rapidly expanded to 80% of cultivated
worth more than $7 billion annually. By
land, grown mostly in large plantations.
2009, China was importing over half of
No country is able to capture the full
all soy exported globally.2 In 2001-2011,
value of the supply chain, but in a more
the areas of harvested soybean grew by
regionalised production environment,
63% in Argentina, 53% in Brazil and 94%
multinational corporations can distribute
in Paraguay.3 The land area planted with
soybean in Brazil is expected to expand by and leverage their assets according to a
countrys comparative advantage: Brazil
8.8 million hectares (MHa) in the next 10
years. Improvements to the Brazilian legal produces meal and beans for feed use,
Argentina specialises in oil and Paraguay
framework for forest conservation and
in raw bean for processing.8
a greater emphasis on legal compliance
from industry have increasingly driven
Cargills new Puerto Unin port opened
soybean expansion in Brazil in a more
in 2011, consolidating the companys
responsible way. Soybean has not been
considered a major driver of deforestation position as Paraguays biggest exporter,
commercialising an annual 1.4 MT of
in the Brazilian Amazon since 2006.4
soy, 30% of the countrys harvest. Since
then, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
While Brazil holds great potential
and Bunge have opened new soybean
to expand agricultural production
crushing plants, more than doubling the
sustainably, infrastructure costs and
countrys processing capacity.9 Brazilian
bottlenecks are a growing barrier. In
companies own roughly 64% of Paraguays
March 2013, the line of trucks waiting to
soy cultivated area nationwide, and up to
unload soybeans at Brazils busiest port
80% in some districts along border areas.
surged to a record 15 miles long, while
The extension of Brazilian interests into
a total of 212 vessels awaited loading.
Paraguay is occurring rapidly, driven
Bunges Chief Executive Alberto Weisser
by lower production costs and more
stated that the biggest concern is inland
permissive rules.10
logistics trucking.5 For the Chinese
crushing company Shandong Chenxi Group
Co., the boom is not materialising after 8
of 10 shipments failed in early 2013. Chenxi
has considered redirecting soybean orders
to Argentina and planned to cancel about 2
Mt of purchases from Brazil.
Why South Americas soybean frontier
is expanding
Strategic Opportunity 3
For the Chinese government, state-owned
and private companies
Consider that Chinas long-term dependence
on South Americas supplies will be more
secure under sustainable conditions. Anticipate
and avoid an anti-Chinese backlash that could
block investment deals and jeopardise soybean
supplies, by publicly demanding soybean that has
been produced in compliance with local laws.
A commitment to sustainability should be seen
by China as central risk management aspect of
its Go Global strategy, as well as a competitive
factor as China acquires stakes in Western-based
global commodity trading companies.
Social conflict
In 2012 the President of Paraguay was
ousted from office in a political crisis
triggered by a land tenure dispute and a
deadly confrontation between peasants
and the police.11 The social risks associated
with the sector are worse where land
tenure insecurity, food security, and health
and safety reinforce one other. During the
first 15 years of democracy in Paraguay
(between 1990 and 2004) there were 895
land conflicts, 571 demonstrations, 370
occupations of agricultural estates, with
357 violent evictions and at least 7,296
farmers arrested.12 Paraguay is the only
Latin American country in which soy
producers do not pay export tax. The
potential for tax revenue is large: a 6%
export tax would raise $90 million, which
is more than the average annual public
investment in small-scale family farming
during 20052009.13
Ac
ce
s
est
ic S
ic Pressu
Demogra
ph
loy
m
Une
mp
re
s
rt
ap
io
nG
at
Ed
Paraguay
ap
security
rc
it
nG
o
re t
tion
ca
lit
bi
Go
uc
m
po
lI
rt
ua
Vi
tE
o
riti
n
er
ent
rt
on
luti
Pol
Water Sc
arcity
c
ffe
sta
dS
Tenure In
Degradat
rt
on
lI
m
po
Pol
luti
rt
Vi
ly
Ex
security
Tenure In
ce
Argentina
Degradat
Rule of La
Fo
o
ss
ne
e
tiv
p
Ga
re
ic Pressu
ent
loy
m
mp
Une
y
lit
bi
ap
pendence
Demogra
ph
io
n
a
rd
fo
af
nG
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r
Nut
at
ca
rc
it
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tE
en
sta
dS
Import De
Go
c
ffe
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
es
rem
Ext
to
ure
pos
Governan
n
er
t
uc
tr
as
In
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
ua
Water Sc
arcit
y
Resource
ic S
uc
re
ic Pressu
Demogra
ph
ent
loy
m
mp
Une
Gap
est
isk
fr
Dom
Ed
p
Ga
io
n
at
uc
Ac
ce
s
lit
bi
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ity
ck
ns
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rd
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te
In
af
on
riti
pendence
Import De
Nut
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Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
tion
on
rc
it
rb
ca
Un
ffe
sta
dS
Ca
Fo
o
es
en
iv
ct
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
Go
Fo
o
ss
em
xtr
osu
tE
Def
ore
ility
en
es
Exp
ly
Rule of La
en
tr
as
fr
In
ce
nm
ion
a
rd
fo
af
Un
isk
Governan
r
ve
Degradat
ne
upp
oun
Acc
po
Brazil
pendence
ic S
Tenure In
ce
Nut
Ac
ce
s
lI
security
Governan
e
tiv
R
re
es
rem
Ext
Ex
Import De
ity
ns
te
In
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
est
Resource
of
Dom
ua
ly
tab
u
ct
tr
to
ure
pos
ck
on
rt
In
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
t
uc
as
fr
Dom
isk
Vi
ity
of
Rule of La
La
luti
ns
ck
Resource
Pol
te
In
La
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
Water Sc
arcity
Blueprint 1
Chinas water security crises will accelerate its reliance
on outsourcing the production of water-intensive crops
such as soybeans. South Americas strategic position
as one of Chinas suppliers and the rapid expansion of
production across borders, means that deforestation
pressures are a risk to companies operating across
Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.
tion
po
rt
s
on
luti
al
I
Vi
i ty
est
ic S
isk
rt
u
ns
te
Ac
ce
s
In
ly
Ex
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
China
Rule of La
Degradat
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
phic Pres
sure
ndence
Demogra
mp
loy
me
nt
rc
it
Gap
Une
ca
lit
on
Ed
tion
i
ab
rd
riti
uc
at
io
nG
ap
dS
fo
af
Un
Go
ne
Nut
n
er
Fo
o
ss
pe
Import De
sta
tiv
c
fe
Ef
nt
es
rem
Ext
to
ure
pos
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
t
uc
tr
as
fr
Dom
Resource
of
Pol
In
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcit
08 / 09
China
Chinas water and land are constraints
to food production
Almost 20% of Chinas arable land is
reportedly polluted, in many cases with
heavy metals that are known by-products
of mining and heavy industry.14 11 out of
31 provinces in China are acutely water
stressed, while 40% of Chinas total
agricultural output is produced in water
scarce regions.15 The North China Plain,
which extends over much of the waterstressed provinces of Henan, Hebei and
Shandong, generates half of the countries
wheat, corn, and cotton and is central to
Chinas projected growth in grain output.16
The region has only one-fifth of the
countrys naturally available fresh water
but two-thirds of the farmland.17 By 2030
it is estimated that China will face a water
deficit of 200 billion m3, equivalent to 25%
of Chinas total water demand.18
Name
Nationality
Ownership
Volume (tonnes)
% of National Total
Shandong Chenxi
China
Private
7,750,000
12.20%
China
State-owned
7,460,000
11.80%
Wilmar
Singapore
Private
5,860,000
9.20%
COFCO
China
State-owned
5,590,000
8.80%
Shandong Bohai
China
Private
3,960,000
6.20%
United Food
Singapore
Private
2,910,000
4.60%
Sinograins
China
State-owned
2,900,000
4.60%
Huifu Group
China
Private
2,130,000
3.40%
Shandong Changhua
China
Private
1,810,000
2.90%
Cargill
USA
Private
1,480,000
2.30%
10 / 11
Blueprint 2
The impact of
Germanys energy
revolution on
Russia and Turkey
Russia
Turkey
Strategic Opportunity
German companies like E.ON and Siemens
are established players in Russias energy
market and are key to its modernisation. As
Russia seeks to access European technology
by investing and integrating with European
energy companies, Europe should retain its
comparative technological advantage and
increase its view of market opportunities. By
investing in Russias improved infrastructure,
Europe will grow its influence over Russias
energy security.
Strategic Opportunity
European companies currently compete with
other regions for a place in Turkeys growing
energy market. The EU at large should
encourage energy companies to invest in
Turkey. Renewables, efficiency, storage and
distribution are areas that will help create the
domestic stability Turkey needs to be a strong
transit partner to Europe. Turkey is set to build
its first nuclear plant with Russias Rosatom.
Europes nuclear safety expertise should be
part of its broader energy market agenda.
12 / 13
Turkey-Russia nuclear cooperation
Turkeys energy market stability
is key for Europe
Foreign participation in
Turkeys energy sector deals
2012
Acquirer
Origin
Target
Stake
Goldman Sachs
USA
Aksa Enerji
13.3%
Aquila Capital
Germany
KArasular Enerji
100%
Tiway Oil
Norway
100%
E.ON
Germany
Enerjisa
50%
Inter RAO
Russia
100%
Oteko Group
Russia
100%
Samsung
Korea
ACWA Elektrik
N/D
BR Energy
UK
Hayat Enerji
25%
SOCAR
Azerbaijan
Petkim
100%
rt
s
on
m
po
luti
rt
u
al
I
Pol
Water Sc
arcity
Vi
rt
s
lI
m
po
Pol
luti
o
ua
rt
Water Sc
arcity
Demogra
phic Pres
ent
loy
m
sure
ap
nG
mp
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as
In
ly
security
ce
Tenure In
Degradat
Rule of La
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
oun
Acc
em
xtr
to E
Exp
Governan
Turkey
es
re
osu
sta
Fo
o
s
ne
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sure
phic Pres
Demogra
ap
nG
y
lit
bi
a
rd
fo
af
o
riti
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pendence
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ent
ca
rc
it
Un
iv
Domestic
ct 60% of gas
ffe
tE
imports from
en
Energy Supply
m
rn
ve
Russia.
Investing
Go in
strengthening Loses over 10%
Turkeys energy of its electricity
in transmission
market is vital
and distribution.
to its role as
Europes long- Electricity
demand will grow
term energy
transit partner. at 6% per year
over the next
decade.
loy
m
phic Pres
Demogra
ent
sure
ap
nG
io
loy
m
mp
lit
bi
Une
a
rd
fo
isk
eR
ur
ct
u
tr
fr
upp
rc
Fiscal
ity
Instability
High probability
of sovereign
debt default
and country
credit rating
downgrading.
af
y
sit
Resource
Ac
ce
s
tion
ca
Gap
en
ic S
on
nt
I
on
rb
est
of
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
Ca
ck
pendence
Gap
La
Dom
dS
Carbon
Intensity
Ukraine emits
0.69kg CO2
per unit of
industrial value
added; almost
4 times more
than the EU
average.
Un
at
e
Rule of Law ffectivDomestic
E
t
The rule of mlaw
Energy Supply
en
rn
ve
in the Ukraine
Ukraine uses
Go
is 24% weaker 0.47kg of oil
than the BRICS equivalent to
average.
produce one
unit of GDP,
4 times more
than the EU
average.
Fo
o
riti
uc
sta
s
es
Nut
Ed
ility
tab
oun
Acc
Import De
lit
bi
on
riti
Nut
pendence
Import De
a
rd
fo
af
Un
ca
rc
A direct risk
ity
to Germanys
electricity
network is not
determined, but
decentralised
renewables
are expected
to increase
resilience to
shocks.
Ukraine
Une
iv
ct Exposure to
Domestic
ffe
tE
en
Energy Supply
Extremes
m
rn
ve
Russia is
Two floods in
Go
Germanys
2002 and 2013
largest energy were both
supplier,
categorised
accounting
as 1 in 100
for 25% of its
year events.
energy needs: The increase
38% of natural in frequency
gas, 35% oil
and severity
and 25% coal.46 of extremes
in Europe will
increase the
exposure of
its energy
systems.
dS
ion
Def
ore
Une
mp
s
ne
tion
Degradat
io
sta
Fo
o
Rule of La
at
tab
Tenure In
uc
Germany
Def
ore
ce
ion
security
Governan
Ed
Degradat
em
xtr
to E
Exp
Ga
Rule of La
Resource
ly
es
re
osu
io
n
Tenure In
as
In
at
Vi
ce
isk
eR
ur
ct
u
tr
fr
upp
uc
m
po
rt
u
al
I
Pol
security
Governan
Ac
ce
s
Ed
on
luti
rt
s
ic S
of
Inflation
E
e to
sur
Exp
ility
ility
tab
Ins
est
em
xtr
ly
oun
Acc
es
ck
ity
In
La
Dom
s
en
ity
Resource
r
st
fr
upp
isk
eR
ur
t
uc
nt
s
en
ic S
Ac
ce
s
nI
nt
est
of
o
rb
Ca
nI
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
o
rb
Ca
Dom
La
Water Sc
arcity
Blueprint 2
Russia and Turkey must strengthen their domestic
electricity infrastructure in order to modernise.
These are key investment markets for Germanys
energy technology companies, which can play a role
in strengthening the regions long-term strategic
relations.
tion
Resource
al
I
Vi
Ac
ce
s
m
po
rt
s
on
luti
i ty
ic S
In
tr
su
xpo
security
Governan
ce
Tenure In
Degradat
Rule of La
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
oun
Acc
es
rem
Ext
o
re t
ly
Russia
eR
ur
t
uc
as
fr
upp
isk
rt
u
ns
te
est
of
Pol
In
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
La
Dom
Water Sc
arcity
14 / 15
sta
ss
ne
phic Pres
sure
ap
nG
Demogra
Gap
Une
lit
on
mp
loy
me
nt
uc
at
io
i
ab
rd
riti
Ed
tion
rc
Exposure
to
ity
Extremes
Russias
exposure to
extreme weather
events such
as heat waves
creates critical
vulnerabilities
for an outdated
electricity
network.
ca
fo
af
Un
Nut
Carbon
Intensity
Russia emits
0.5kg CO2
per unit of
industrial value
added; almost
3 times more
than the EU
average.
ndence
dS
pe
Import De
Fo
o
Source
Mckinsey & Company 47
Russian Sector
Investment
required
in energy
efficiency
Annual
energy
savings as
of 2030
% of total
energy
consumption
in 2030
Savings over
20 years
70 billion
180 MTCE
13%
205 MTCO2E
7%
190 billion
20 billion
80 MTCE
6%
160 MTCO2E
5%
60 billion
60 billion
50 MTCE
4%
200 MTCO2E
7%
80 billion
MTCE
Million tonnes of
coal equivalent
MTCO2E
Million tonnes of
carbon dioxide
equivalent
Blueprint 3
India and Nigerias
rice business as
a driver of their
food security
Strategic Opportunity 1
Corporate sustainability programs in
India must focus on productivity and postharvest efficiency
The government will need to work more
closely with companies whose sustainability
strategies can improve resource efficiency and
productivity, and consider the opportunities
for companies to play a more active role in the
post-harvest system comprising transport,
storage and distribution.
Strategic Opportunity 2
Nigeria must foster a sustainable business
environment and curb illegal rice smuggling
Controlling corruption, improving customs
management and coordinating with
neighbouring countries is vital to control illegal
smuggling. This should be a key priority for
Nigerias Agricultural Transformation Agenda
(ATA), and could be a flagship initiative of the
Presidential Committee on Trade Malpractices
in 2015.
16 / 17
Focusing on sustainability as
productivity
120
110
Rice Production
220
100
Undernourished People
(3-year average)
200
Million Tonnes
90
180
80
160
70
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Rice Exports
20
Blueprint 3
Indias food unaffordability and inflation amplifies the
likelihood of a decision to ban rice exports. Nigerias
interest in building a vibrant domestic rice production
market to manage its import-dependence requires
fighting rice smuggling across borders.
rt
s
on
lI
m
po
luti
ic S
as
fr
In
security
Tenure In
ce
Nigeria
Rule of La
ility
dS
p
Ga
ent
sure
phic Pres
Demogra
io
n
at
loy
m
Une
mp
ap
nG
lit
bi
uc
a
rd
fo
af
Ed
ca
rc
it
Un
ce
ependen
Import D
o
riti
Nut
ve
ion
sta
Fo
o
s
es
en
tiv
c
fe
Degradat
Def
ore
tab
Go
em
xtr
to E
Exp
Governan
m
rn
es
re
osu
ly
Ef
nt
ct
u
tr
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
ua
Vi
y
sit
est
isk
rt
en
Ac
ce
s
Dom
Resource
of
Pol
nt
I
on
rb
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcity
Nigeria
Removing the barriers to
Nigerias domestic rice production
Nigeria is Africas most populous
country and a rising star in the group of
emerging economies. However 70% of the
population still lives in poverty, and food
security and affordability both remain
significant constraints, hampered by
inflation. Nigerias agriculture sector has
been identified as the biggest opportunity
to create jobs, drive economic growth and
lower the dependence on food imports.
Increasing rice import-tariffs will not
be enough to build a robust domestic
agricultural sector.
tion
po
rt
s
luti
on
lI
y
sit
est
ic S
isk
Vi
rt
ua
en
nt
Ac
ce
s
In
ly
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
India
Degradat
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
sta
Fo
o
ss
dS
re
Demogra
phic Pres
su
ent
mp
t
ili
ab
rd
ffo
Gap
pendence
Une
rc
it
na
ion
loy
m
ca
tio
nG
rit
Nut
Ed
u
tion
ca
U
od
Fo
ap
tiv
c
fe
Ef
e
en
Import De
er
nm
t
en
es
rem
Ext
o
re t
su
xpo
Rule of La
Go
tr
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
t
uc
as
fr
Dom
Resource
of
P ol
I
on
rb
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcity
18 / 19
India
Improving the efficiency of Indias rice
production and distribution system
India is expected to cross the threshold
of severe water stress before 2025. 40%
of groundwater is extracted beyond the
rate of replenishment. Irrigation accounts
for over 90% of water consumption in
India.58 33% of Indias large population
lives in poverty, spending up to 70% of
household expenditure on food. One third
of all irrigated land in India is degraded,
polluted or waterlogged due to the overuse
of fertilisers and irrigation.59
Million Tonnes
6
Rice Consumption
Rice Production
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
20 / 21
Blueprint 4
Switzerlands
dependence on
West Africas
cocoa
Strategic Opportunity 1
The Swiss government
As an international commodity hub with an
interest in its impacts on global sustainability,
Switzerland has the opportunity to orient its
commodities sector policies and development
to help stimulate an innovative response from
Swiss companies. Building the capacity of
smallholders in Ghana and Cte dIvoire must
also enable them to capture enough value from
global chocolate market so as to remain its
sustainable suppliers.
Strategic Opportunity 2
Multinationals in Switzerlands chocolate
industry
To lead a response to the supply shortage
challenge by orienting innovations in the
business models of big chocolate brands and
give farmers in Ghana and Cte dIvoire a bigger
stake in market value creation. As established
chocolate brands position their growth in
emerging markets they must provide farmers
with a more attractive stake in their long-term
success.
Switzerlands dependence
Switzerland holds over 25% of global
commodity trade and hosts some of the
worlds largest and most well-known
multinationals in the agri-food industry.69
The Swiss government is under increasing
pressure to take responsibility for
environmental and development impacts
of global commodities without losing
its place as one of the most competitive
economies in the world.70
Over 80% of Switzerlands water footprint
lies outside the country, as imported
cotton, livestock products and grains also
virtually carries the water embedded
in production.71 / 72 16% of Switzerlands
total virtual water footprint is attributed
to cocoa bean and product imports, and
Ghana and Cte dIvoire are the most
significant contributors of that
embedded water.
Poverty
Chronic poverty and poor labour conditions
are driving an exodus from cocoa farming,
just as a new generation of farmers must
Traditional consumer countries still
take the reins of production.87 The average
dominate the global market, but in 2011
alone, emerging economies accounted for income of West African cocoa farmers and
55% of global confectionary retail growth. their dependents is far below the level of
absolute poverty, reinforcing the drivers
In 5 years, Barry Callebaut the Swissof child labour.88 Crop diversification will
based chocolate giant doubled its output
79
capacity in Asia. Global demand for cocoa be crucial to improve incomes, living
is expected to grow by 30% by 2020, while conditions and food security in the cocoa
production has plateaued in recent years. belt.89
A shortfall is expected by 2020.80
22 / 23
Location of
Headquarters
Mars Inc
USA
17,640
USA
14,862
Nestl SA
Switzerland
11,760
Japan
11,742
Ferrero Group
Italy
10,900
USA
7,043
Arcor
Argentina
3,700
Switzerland
3,149
Japan
3,018
Yildiz Holding
Turkey
2,500
ic S
isk
Vi
rt
ua
l
Pol
Im
po
rt
luti
o
po
tr
as
fr
In
ly
Ex
nce
Water Sc
arcity
rt
u
al
Im
po
rt
s
on
ent
rc
it
Vi
Demogra
phic Pres
loy
m
mp
Une
sure
ap
nG
Ed
re
ic Pressu
ent
Une
mp
Demogra
ph
tio
uc
a
loy
m
nG
ap
Governa
y
lit
Resource
bi
ity
s
en
cc
Cte dIvoire / Ghana
es
Business model innovations
by large
Development conditions in producer
s
countries to constrain cocoa suppliesDo companies in the chocolate market
m
The combination of resource, demographic emust
stic help farmers to capture the
value S
ofuthe
market in order to
and governance pressures in Ghana and
ppglobal
ly
unlock the development,
citizenship and
Cte dIvoire will induce a shortage of
environmental outcomes that are needed.
global cocoa supplies as early as 2020.
Gap
nt
of
on
nI
ck
tion
ca
a
rd
fo
af
y
lit
bi
Gap
La
riti
o
rb
v
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pendence
Import De
n
er
dS
Un
Fo
o
Nut
Ca
a
rd
fo
af
on
riti
Ed
tiv
c
fe
Ef
nt
ility
tab
Ins
rc
it
Un
pendence
Import De
Nut
ca
ne
tio
dS
ion
sta
ss
Inflation
ne
tiv
c
fe
Fo
o
oun
Acc
tion
Degradat
Def
ore
ility
tab
sta
ss
Ghana
uc
a
Def
ore
ility
security
Tenure In
Rule of La
ion
es
rem
Ext
to
ure
pos
upp
rnance
Degradat
eR
ur
t
uc
Pol
luti
Im
ua
l
Vi
rt
Water Sc
arcit
rt
s
n
Pol
luti
o
Inflation
est
Cte dIvoire
tab
Ac
ce
s
Dom
Tenure In
of
Resource
Gove
security
ce
n
er
es
rem
Ext
Ex
Governan
Ef
nt
ck
y
sit
en
ly
oun
Acc
La
to
ure
pos
upp
Rule of La
Go
tr
as
fr
In
t
In
isk
eR
ur
t
uc
ility
tab
Ins
on
ic S
rb
est
Ca
Inflation
Ac
ce
s
Dom
Resource
of
y
sit
en
t
In
ck
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcity
Blueprint 4
Switzerlands virtual water imports highlight its
dependence on water and food crops from developing
countries. Ghana and Cte dIvoire provide most of the
worlds cocoa. A global supply shortage is expected
as soon as 2020 driven by poverty and environmental
stress. Swiss chocolate multinationals must rethink how
business innovation can help overcome these complex
development challenges.
as
r
nf
er
ua
lW
at
on
luti
i ty
est
ic S
isk
Vi
rt
ns
te
Ac
ce
s
In
ly
Ex
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
Switzerland
Degradat
Rule of La
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
Fo
o
ss
ne
phic Pres
sure
ndence
Demogra
% of cocoa-related
virtual water imports
of Switzerland
Ghana
27%
Cte dIvoire
25%
Ecuador
11%
Cameroon
10%
Nigeria
6%
Brazil
3%
Indonesia
2%
Unknown
16%
Gap
mp
loy
me
nt
nG
rc
it
tion
Switzerland
Switzerlands external dependence
Over 80% of Switzerlands water footprint
lies outside the country as its imports
of cotton, livestock products and grains
carry the embedded water of sourcing
countries where they were irrigated, 16%
is attributed to cocoa imports. Ghana
and Cte dIvoire contribute the most
significant embedded water in total cocoa
imports.104
lit
on
Une
uc
at
io
i
ab
rd
riti
Nut
Ed
ca
fo
af
Un
ap
dS
pe
Import De
rn
ve
Go
sta
tiv
c
fe
Ef
nt
es
rem
Ext
to
ure
pos
upp
oun
Acc
eR
ur
t
uc
tr
as
fr
Dom
Resource
of
Pol
In
ck
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcity
Im
po
rt
24 / 25
Blueprint 5
South East Asias
transboundary
haze: health risk
liabilities
Strategic Opportunity 1
For companies with land concessions
in Indonesia
Companies that have made public commitments
to zero deforestation and burning, to help fill
the gap that exists for robust and uniform
transparency, disclosure and the development
of a land monitoring system for use by public
policy makers and the private sector.
Strategic Opportunity 2
For the government of Indonesia
Encourage Indonesias own legal schemes
for sustainable palm oil and wood products
The Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO)
system, and the Indonesian Timber Legality
Assurance System (SVLK) to directly address
the haze issue through coordinated independent
verification of certified plantations for
compliance with no-burning policies.
26 / 27
Strategic Opportunity 3
For the governments of Singapore and
Malaysia
Quantify the economic and health costs that
forest fires in order to make more informed
political decisions about its impacts. Accelerate
the development and implementation of
disclosure and transparency guidelines for
companies listed in their stock exchanges or
privately held in their jurisdictions that operate
large land assets in Indonesia.
Corporate commitments
face complexity
Many large palm oil, timber and pulp and
paper companies based across Singapore,
Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur have sizeable
land assets and subsidiary operations in
Indonesian provinces. The palm oil sector
in particular has been the focus of haze
concerns due to its rapid growth. Indonesia
and Malaysia together account for 80%
of palm oil supplies globally, a market
expected to grow 32% to 60 million tonnes
(MT) by 2020.122
Strategic Opportunity 4
For ASEAN policy-makers
ASEAN has the goal to strengthen regional
economic integration in 2015. The existing
ASEAN Business Advisory Council has a role to
play in driving the effectiveness of the ASEAN
Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution.
The creation of an ASEAN Business Working
Group on Transboundary Haze is an opportunity
to consolidate the business voice across these
countries regarding policy priorities and
implementation.
Sustainability requirements
in the stock exchanges
Global progress towards embedding
sustainability in stock exchanges has been
a slow process, and South East Asia is no
exception. The Indonesian Stock Exchange
was the first ASEAN country to issue a
sustainability index, although it has not
issued voluntary or mandatory reporting
guidelines.132 Since 2007, Bursa Malaysia
has required listed companies to disclose
their CSR activities or make a statement
that none are conducted.133 Finally, in
2011, the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX)
began to publish a Sustainability Reporting
Guide, currently a voluntary exercise.134
SGX has indicated that in 2015 it will drive
mandatory reporting or a report-orexplain approach.135 While up-take has
been slow, maintaining and accelerating
efforts to work on sustainability criteria
across these stock exchanges in relation
to land-assets in the region should be an
increasingly important area of work in the
ASEAN region.
28 / 29
Source Earth Security Group, compiled
from Bloomberg, Maybank Malaysia and
company annual reports.
Zero
Deforestation
Indonesia
Planting
(Ha)
Plasma
Planting
(Ha)
Wilmar International
RSPO
ZB
ZD
20
SGX
171,144
41,037
Golden Agri-Resources
RSPO
ZB
ZD
5.2
SGX
471,100
99,998
First Resources
RSPO
ZB
SGX
170,596
21,869
RSPO
ZB
1.4
SGX
149,683
34,731
RSPO
ZB
1.2
SGX
239,921
90,214
RSPO
ZB
0.24
SGX
52,135
13,949
RSPO
ZB
0.058
SGX
10,403
3,118
Musim Mas
RSPO
ZB
Private
122,572
Private
357,851
RSPO
ZB
17.5
KLSE
204,466
4,1415
RSPO
ZB
7.3
KLSE
137,483
RSPO
ZB
3.8
KLSE
56,422
ZB
1.5
KLSE
9,815
RSPO
ZB
KLSE
27,491
Samling Group
Private
6,085
Indofood
RSPO
ZB
4.8
IDX
230,000
83,000
ZB
2.6
IDX
281,378
61,357
ZB
ZD
2.38
IDX
2,600,000
RSPO
ZB
1.8
IDX
138,914
30,968
RSPO
ZB
1.1
IDX
89,845
PT SIMP
RSPO
ZB
0.9
IDX
239,921
90,214
RSPO
ZB
0.06
IDX
122,024
13,882
PT Sampoerna Agro
RSPO
ZB
0.3
IDX
120,225
49,513
Private
155,000
ZB
Private
100,000
60,000
Companies
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Zero Burning
Indicates that the company has
a policy which requires it to
ensure that any land clearance
activities (including the
clearance of forests) would be
conducted without the use
of forest or peat fires.
Zero Deforestation
Indicates that the company
has moved beyond having a
sustainable forest management policy to making a
specific public commitment to
zero deforestation across their
production chain, including
their subsidiaries or suppliers.
Plasma Scheme
The Indonesian governments
Plasma Scheme supports
the development of oil palm
plantations for smallholders,
committing developers to
purchase their produce.
rt
on
Im
po
luti
est
ic S
isk
ua
l
y
sit
Ac
ce
s
as
In
upp
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
Indonesia
Degradat
Rule of La
ility
tab
ap
sure
Demogra
phic Pres
ent
nG
io
at
loy
m
Une
mp
ap
nG
y
lit
bi
a
rd
fo
af
itio
uc
sta
ca
rc
it
Un
pendence
Import De
Ed
ion
Def
ore
dS
r
Nut
E
nt
nm
er
Fo
o
es
en
tiv
c
ffe
v
Go
es
rem
Ext
e to
sur
Exp
ly
oun
Acc
eR
ur
ct
u
tr
fr
Dom
Resource
of
Vi
rt
en
ck
Pol
nt
I
on
rb
La
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
Ca
Indonesia
Forest fires undermine the governments
rural development goals
In 2013, Indonesia ranked as the top producer
of palm oil in the world (28.4 MT) as well
as the largest global consumer of palm oil,
accounting for 23% of global consumption.142
Top importers of Indonesian palm oil are
India (28%), China (15%) and Malaysia (8%),
reducing the effectiveness of western
market led sustainability certifications.143
Globally, Indonesia is the 10th largest
paper and paperboard producer and home
to APP, the largest company in the global
market.144 Illegal burning for oil-palm and
pulpwood plantations has had devastating
effects domestically, where haze has caused
hundreds of schools and local airports to
close, and respiratory infections in thousands
of people.145
Water Sc
arcit
Blueprint 5
Indonesias forest fires create a haze that moves across
boundaries and pollute the air in Singapore and Malaysia.
Fires are rooted in insecure land tenure combining with
commercial pressures from the palm oil, paper and timber
industries. The health risks to these populations are a gamechanger to the corporate liabilities faced by multinationals
in these sectors; a new incentive to consider a public-private
cooperation strategy on a regional level.
tion
30 / 31
rt
on
po
luti
Ac
ce
s
ly
Ex
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
Malaysia
ility
tab
ss
dS
p
Ga
tion
est
ic S
rt
on
Im
po
luti
ua
l
isk
Vi
rt
Water Sc
arcit
y
sit
Ac
ce
s
as
In
upp
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
Singapore
Degradat
Rule of La
Def
ore
ility
tab
ap
ap
sure
Demogra
phic Pres
nG
io
ent
loy
m
y
lit
bi
a
rd
fo
af
nG
itio
Une
mp
ca
rc
it
Un
pendence
Import De
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r
Nut
en
nm
dS
n
ive
c
fe
r
ve
sta
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o
s
es
f
tE
es
rem
Ext
e to
sur
Exp
ly
oun
Acc
eR
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ct
u
tr
fr
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of
at
re
ic Pressu
ent
loy
m
en
ck
Pol
nt
I
on
rb
La
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
Ca
Demogra
ph
io
n
mp
y
lit
bi
ap
nG
pendence
Une
at
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it
a
rd
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uc
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ion
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nt
rn
ve
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o
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ive
ct
ffe
Go
Singapore
Health and business disruption costs
in a global commodities hub
Many of the regions most significant palm
oil, pulp and paper and timber companies
are domiciled or listed in Singapore, an
increasingly significant global commodities
hub that supports trade and financing
in both sectors. While Singapore has
effective plans and policies in place to
manage its dependencies on food, water
and energy imports, it is increasingly
exposed to health and economic impacts
from transboundary haze. At the height of
the 2013 haze crisis, record air pollution
in Singapore was classified as hazardous
to human health, damaging Singapores
reputation as an attractive business and
financial hub renowned for its high quality
of life.150
Degradat
Rule of La
oun
Acc
es
rem
Ext
to
ure
pos
upp
uc
ic S
Ed
est
In
t
uc
tr
as
fr
Dom
eR
ur
ua
Vi
ity
rt
ns
of
isk
lI
Pol
te
In
ck
Resource
Inflation
ility
tab
Ins
on
rb
Ca
La
Water Sc
arcity
Malaysia
Malaysia chairs ASEAN in 2015
Malaysia holds the chair of ASEAN in
2015: Malaysia is now the second largest
producer of palm oil (19.2 MT in 2013) after
Indonesia and the 5th largest consumer of
palm oil.146 Primary importers of Malaysian
palm oil are China (19%), India (15%), and
Pakistan (8%).147 While Malaysia is not
currently a significant player in the global
market for pulp and paper, the sector
is poised to expand.148 Malaysia is itself
responsible for some haze episodes, but it
is the prevailing westward winds carrying
the haze pollution from Indonesia as far
north as Kuala Lumpur that can push
air pollution above the level considered
hazardous. In 2013, Malaysias Air
Pollutant Index (API) reached hazardous
levels around the capital, closing airports
and schools, and a state of emergency was
called in Johor State.149
ion
tion
Blueprint 6
Converging
interests in the
Nile Basin around
food security
32 / 33
Strategic Opportunity 1
For the governments of
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia
To invest in one anothers
agricultural sectors through
bilateral agreements in order
to ensure food security and
water stewardship. Developing
a vision for how food security
concerns could be met through
intra-regional investment can
revitalise relationships in the
region.
Strategic Opportunity 2
For Gulf investors in
agriculture
To make water stewardship,
local food security, and support
for smallholder farmers a key
and measurable impact of
their agricultural involvement
in the Nile Basin. Building the
resilience of these countries is
vital to long-term stability of
their investments. Government
bodies in the Gulf that have
been set up to support investors
abroad should help build the
awareness of investors of the
proven models for holistic and
inclusive agriculture.
Strategic Opportunity 3
For multilateral banks and
policy platforms
The development banks and
networks such as the Nile
Basin Initiative, which focus
on improving transboundary
water cooperation, must
consider supporting a strategic
engagement with the investment
sector. Private and public
investors and companies, within
and outside the region, should be
encouraged to adopt agricultural
and water stewardship practices
that have already been developed.
Similarly, the investment
promotion frameworks of host
countries should align their tax
incentives to the promotion of
these models.
The Egyptian Central Agricultural Cooperative Union (CACU) and its Sudanese
counterpart entered into agreements in
2013, including the establishment of joint
agricultural companies to utilise Egyptian
expertise and Sudans land and water
resources.183 / 184 Investment agreements
like these must be encouraged to consider
sustainability criteria. Leveraging the role
of business in agricultural investments
already crossing boundaries within the
basin is needed to revitalise relationships
and manage shared water resources.
Multi-sector investment programmes
between these countries, such as the cofinancing of infrastructure projects, are
seen as a way to strengthen cooperation
and resilience at a basin level.185 Irrigation
infrastructure investments already feature
centrally in the countries development
plans. Investing countries must now
ensure that investments are done
within parameters of sustainability and
efficiency, and consider transboundary
implications.186
Holistic models of agriculture have
been proven to work in Egypt. For
example, those promoted by the
Egyptian agribusiness group SEKEM
have demonstrated that agriculture can
be developed by responding to multiple
factors of soil management, climate
change resilience, food security, water
stress, youth employment and community
development.187 Other efforts, like the Nile
Basin Initiatives Project for the Efficient
Use of Water for Agriculture have made
important progress on improving the
knowledge of best practices.188 These
initiatives must now develop linkages
to mainstream investments in order to
encourage the commercial sector to
support sustainable resource priorities.
34 / 35
Selected foreign agricultural investments from
Gulf countries to Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan 2007-2014
Food and non-food agricultural commodities
Destination
Country
Contract size
(Hectares)
Investor
Organisations
Investor
Countries
Egypt
42,000
Al Rajhi Group
Saudi Arabia
42,000
Janan
20,000
Jenaan Investment
10,300
2,520
Janan
250,000
MIDROC Group
Jemal Ahmed
Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia
20,000
MIDROC Group
Jemal Ahmed
Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia
10,030
MIDROC Group
Ethiopian Government
Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia
10,000
MIDROC Group
Saudi Arabia
10,000
Saudi Arabia
5,000
3,000
MIDROC Group
Saudi Arabia
1,800
MIDROC Group
Jemal Ahmed
Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia
106,680
Citadel Capital
Egypt
101,172
Hassad Food
Qatar
60,702
Kuwait
Sudan
Saudi Arabia
42,000
Nadec
Saudi Arabia
34,802
30,000
25,210
Citadel Capital
Egypt
22,257
Jenaan Investment
20,492
Al Rajhi Group
Saudi Arabia
8,888
Saudi Arabia
5,210
Qatar
Ethiopia
Sudan
Note
The list of investments is not exhaustive;
it includes projects with investment
agreements that have been concluded
and may include projects that have been
since abandoned.
po
rt
s
on
luti
ic S
al
I
as
fr
In
upp
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
Egypt
Degradat
ion
upp
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ua
rt
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nce
Ex
phic Pres
sure
Demogra
security
Sudan
ion
sure
ility
sure
phic Pres
Demogra
loy
m
ent
io
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mp
s
rt
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m
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ua
y
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pendence
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er
nm
t
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s
es
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ce
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phic Pres
Ethiopia
tab
oun
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rt
ent
loy
m
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security
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ependen
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itio
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of
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tab
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arcity
ic S
po
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on
m
al
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security
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Tenure In
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United Arab
Emirates
Degradat
ion
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tab
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Water Sc
arcity
36 / 37
Blueprint 6
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are part of the Nile Basin,
where water cooperation has been strained in recent
years. Sudan and Egypt are also part of the Arab
World. The UAE and other Gulf investors are some of
the worlds most water-stressed and food importdependent countries and see this region as a strategic
destination for agricultural investments. There isnt
enough water in the Nile for all, but focusing on common
interests in food security offers new opportunities to
build trust and strengthen cooperation.
rt
s
on
po
luti
lI
ua
rt
Ac
ce
s
est
ic S
security
Governan
Tenure In
ce
USA
Degradat
ion
Def
ore
ility
tab
sta
tiv
dS
ap
nG
ic Pressu
loy
m
mp
Demogra
ph
Une
rt
on
Im
po
Pol
luti
ua
l
Vi
rt
sta
Demogra
phic Pres
ent
loy
m
sure
ap
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uc
at
io
mp
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y
lit
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a
rd
fo
af
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it
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on
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ce
ependen
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ve
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rn
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o
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re
ent
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at
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y
Water Sc
arcit
ility
tiv
ion
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ore
tab
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Mexico
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lit
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security
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ly
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nt
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a
rd
fo
af
upp
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es
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osu
on
ic S
as
fr
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riti
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pendence
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r
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ck
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ve
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en
o
re t
u
s
po
Ex
ly
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as
fr
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upp
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re
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ru
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sit
of
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ck
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ility
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Ins
nt
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o
rb
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Water Sc
arcity
Blueprint 7
Mexicos food
security and climate
change in the USA
tion
rem
Ext
38 / 39
Mexicos corn import-dependence
Year
2000
Sources
USA
Total value
%
99.89
2005
USA
%
99.62
2010
USA
%
99.44
2011
USA
%
87.83
2012
USA
%
87.71
Venezuela
0.04
Brazil
0.15
Brazil
0.25
Brazil
0.02
Chile
0.12
Colombia
0.09
Canada
0.54
Brazil
1.53
Guatemala
0.02
Guatemala
0.06
Argentina
0.08
Brazil
0.09
Colombia
0.05
Chile
0.01
Argentina
0.04
Chile
0.06
Chile
0.02
Chile
0.01
$0.55 billion
$0.71 billion
$1.58 billion
$3.00 billion
$2.95 billion
Methodology
The data
The selection and processing of the data
for the ESI 2015 has followed five criteria:
Coverage
Data that allows for the assessment of
country-level trends, in global datasets
that allow for a comparison between
countries.
Relevance
Data that is relevant to assess resourcerelated risks in an unambiguous way.
Accessibility
Data that is publicly available, either
through peer-reviewed scientific data
or data compiled by international
organisations.
Transformation
Where needed, data points were
transformed using the natural logarithm
to make the values for different countries
comparable. The natural logarithm is
a commonly used statistical tool that
presents differences between values in
a way that highly different data can be
compared on a common scale.
Normalisation
To allow for aggregating and comparing
different data on a common scale, the data
points were normalised on a 0100 scale
(100 meaning the riskiest). This scale was
developed taking into account the lowest
and highest values of all countries for a
data point, allowing for a comparison not
only between the countries profiled in
the 2015 report, but of all countries in the
database, thereby reflecting the relative
values.
40 / 41
The data points in the raw datasets have
different directions; in some cases a
higher value is better while in others a
higher value is worse. The formula has
been therefore applied in two different
ways in order to provide for a common
scale, where 0 is the least and 100 the
most risky.
The visual
Using the values from the weighting and
aggregation processes, the country risk
visuals were created. The following section
describes the methodology behind the
country risk visuals.
Scale
Visualisation
The wedges should be read in the same
way as the scores: the bigger a wedge
is, the riskier is the performance of that
dimension. To aid the use of the visuals,
a visual benchmark has been added that
draws a highlight to those wedges that
have a higher score than 50. This is a
purely visual aid and does not imply a value
judgement or statistical calculation, which
does not mean that dimensions scoring
50 or less are not relevant to the risk
profile of the country. However, this device
allows the observer to focus on the smaller
number of dimensions that surpass the
50 mark.
Dimension
Data Source
Population
Demographic Pressure
The countrys population growth rate
and density.
Unemployment
The levels of unemployment and youth
unemployment in the country.
Education
The extent and equity of education.
Government Effectiveness
The quality and independence of the
public service and the effectiveness of
policy implementation.
Accountability
The level of transparency and
accountability of government decisions.
Rule of Law
The quality of contract enforcement,
property rights, the police, the courts, and
the likelihood of crime and violence.
Resource Governance
The quality, transparency and
accountability of governance in the
oil, gas and mining sectors.
Domestic Supply
The ability of the domestic energy
system to meet energy demand not
accounting for energy imports.
Lack of Access
The proportion of the population
without access to electricity.
Carbon Intensity
Carbon emissions from electricity
generation and industry.
Instability
The sustainability of the public debt and
likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis.
Inflation
The increase in consumer prices and
decline in the purchasing value of money.
Governance
Energy
Fiscal
42 / 43
Water
Climate
Land
Food
Scarcity
The availability of water in the country
throughout the year.
Pollution
The percentage of wastewater in the
country that is treated.
Virtual Imports
Water imported by being embedded in
imported commodities and products.
Tenure Insecurity
The lack of security that a persons land
rights will be recognised and protected.
Degradation
The reduction or loss of land ecosystem
services and the lands productivity,
including drivers like soil erosion, salinity
and deforestation.
Deforestation
The loss of forest cover of a
countrys territory.
Scarcity
The availability of food to meet the
needs of the population, through
domestic production and imports.
Unaffordability
The ability of poor households to
purchase the food they need.
Nutrition Gap
The populations access to safe and
nutritious food.
Import Dependence
The countrys reliance on food imports.
Statistics, 20122014,
Agricultural Market Information System.
FAOSTAT database, 20072009,
Food and Agriculture Organisation
of the United Nations.
Im
po
rt
s
luti
on
rt
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arcity
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Acknowledgments
Blueprint 1
China / South America
Bob Ash, SOAS China Institute, London;
Holly Chen and Cheryl Low, China-Britain
Business Council, China; David Cleary,
The Nature Conservancy, Brazil; Luiz
Cornacchioni, Associao Brasileira
do Agronegcio (ABAG), Brazil; Alex
Ehrenhaus, Solidaridad Network
and Round Table for Sustainable Soy
Association, Argentina; Daniel Marteleto
Godinho, Secretary of Foreign Trade,
The team at the Earth Security Group that Ministry of Development, Industry
has developed the 2015 Earth Security
and Foreign Trade of Brazil; Juliana
Index includes Alejandro Litovsky, Lydia
Lopes, Grupo Amaggi, Brazil; Martin
Harvey, Margot Hill Clarvis, Lin Yang,
Ma, Solidaridad Network China; Valeria
Rupert Bassett, Sarah Aliker, Tom
Militelli, Cargill South America, Brazil;
Howard-Vyse, and interns Sandhya Menon, Horacio Sanchez-Caballero, Grupo de
Isabella Childs, Poulami Bhowmich and
Paises Productores del Sur (GPS); Ernesto
Astrid Carruet.
Viglizzo, Instituto Nacional Tecnologa
Agropecuaria, Argentina.
Our Global Expert Group has played a
key role in the revision, discussion and
Blueprint 2
improvement of this years ESI 2015
Germany / Russia / Turkey
indicator framework development. They
Andrea Berdesinski and Julian Fricke,
include: Laura Cozzi, International Energy Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany;
Agency; Arjen Hoekstra, Water Footprint
Cho Khong, Shell International; Berris
Network; Holger Hoff, Potsdam Institute
Ekinci, Asli Gven and Emre Yunt, Ministry
for Climate Impact Research; Angel
of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of
Hsu, Yale University; Ephraim Nkonya,
Turkey; Guido Axmann, Thema1, Germany;
International Food Policy Research
Michael Hoffman, Trans Adriatic Pipeline;
Institute; Christopher Lambe, The Earth
Cenk Pala, E.ON Turkey Enerji AS; Andrey
Institute at Columbia University; Lailai Li, Kortunov, Council on International
World Resources Institute, China; Jose
Relations of Russia; Gerard Ried, Alexa
Marengo, Brazilian Institute for Space
Capital, Germany; Fiona Shaw, Willis
Research; Claudia Ringler, International
Group, London; Ana Stanic, E&A Law
Food Policy Research Institute; Cynthia
Limited, London.
Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies; Fiona Shaw, Willis Group;
Blueprint 3
and Andreas Spiegel, Swiss Re.
India / Nigeria
Dr. Debisi Araba, Ministry of Agriculture
of Nigeria; Chris Brett and Chris Brown,
Olam International; Divya Datt, The Energy
and Resources Institute, India; William
Wyn Ellis, United Nations Sustainable Rice
Platform; Mukul Mathur, Olam Nigeria Ltd;
Dapo Oyewole, Federal Ministry of Finance,
Nigeria; Sanjay Sacheti, Olam India.
Blueprint 4
Switzerland / West Africa
Antonie Fountain, VOICE network,
Netherlands; Chris Brett and Chris Brown,
Olam International; Duncan Pollard, Carlo
Galli and Darrell High, Nestl SA; Johan
Gly and Franois Mnger, Swiss Agency
for Development and Co-operation; Remy
Freidmann, Swiss Ministry of Foreign
Affairs; Michiel Hendriksz, Archer Daniels
Midland (ADM), Switzerland; Arjen
Hoekstra, Water Footprint Network;
Switzerland; Anna Swaithes, SABMiller.
Blueprint 5
Indonesia / Singapore / Malaysia
Ima Abdulrahim, The Habibie Center,
Indonesia; Robert O. Blake, US
Ambassador to Indonesia; Mahdev Mohan,
Singapore Management University;
Cynthia Morel, Global Advocacy; Puvan
Selvanathan, United Nations Global
Compact; Hario Soeprobo, Colonia First
State Investment, Indonesia; Thomas
Thomas, ASEAN CSR Network; Lizzy
Whitehead, British Embassy Indonesia.
Blueprint 6
The Nile / The Gulf
Maximilian Abouleish, SEKEM, Egypt;
Rob Bailey, Chatham House; Naty Barak,
Netafim; Olivier Cogels, Integrated Water
Resources and River Basin Management
Specialist; Mona Hammami; Abu Dhabi
Crown Prince Court; Nagaraja Rao
Harshadeep, The World Bank Group;
Holger Hoff, Stockholm Environment
Institute and Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impacts; Manfred Kaufmann, Embassy
of Switzerland in Ethiopia; Franois
Mnger and Johan Gly, Swiss Agency
for Development and Co-operation (SDC);
Isabelle Provildoli, Centre for Development
and Environment; Gete Zeleke, Water and
Land Resource Centre, Ethiopia.
Blueprint 7
Mexico / USA
Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American
Development Bank; Claudia Ringler,
International Food Policy Research
Institute.
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