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Review for FINAL EXAM

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Chapter 11

Chapter

Population

Population

the complete collection of

the complete collection of

elements (scores, people,

elements (scores, people,

measurements, etc.) toto bebe studied

measurements, etc.)

studied

Sample

Sample

sub--collection

aa sub

collection of elements

of elements

drawn from aa population

drawn from

population

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The Nature of Data

The Nature of Data

Definitions

Definitions

Quantitative data

Quantitative data

numbers representing counts or

numbers representing counts or

measurements

measurements

Qualitative (attribute) data

Qualitative (attribute) data

nonnumeric data that can bebe separated

nonnumeric data that can

separated

into different categories (categorical

into different

categories (categorical

data)

data)

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Definitions

Definitions

Discrete -- Countable

Discrete

Countable

Continuous -- Measurements with nono

Continuous

Measurements with

gaps

gaps

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Levels of Measurement

Levels of

Measurement

Nominal -- names only

Nominal

names only

Ordinal -- names with some order

Ordinal

names with some order

Interval -- differences but nono ‘‘zero

Interval

differences but

zero’’

Ratio -- differences and aa ‘‘zero

Ratio

differences and

zero’’

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Methods of Sampling

Methods of Sampling

Random

Random

Systematic

Systematic

Convenience

Convenience

Stratified

Stratified

Cluster

Cluster

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Chapters

Chapters 2,3

2,3

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Determine the Definition Values

Determine the Definition Values

for this Frequency Table

for this Frequency Table

Lower Class Limits Quiz 7 2 11 8 5 Frequency 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 Scores 20-24
Lower Class Limits
Quiz
7
2
11
8
5
Frequency
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
Scores
20-24
vv Classes
Classes
vv Lower Class Limits
Upper Class Limits
vv Upper Class Limits
vv Class Boundaries
Class Boundaries
vv Class Midpoints
Class Midpoints
vv Class Width
Class Width

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Frequency Tables

Frequency Tables

 

Regular Freq. Table

 

Relative Freq. Table

Cumulative Freq. Table

 

Frequency

Axial

Relative

Axial

Cumulative

Axial Load

Load

Frequency

Load

Frequency

200

- 209

 
  • 200 - 209

0.051

  • 9 Less than 210

9

210

- 219

  • 210 - 219

0.017

  • 3 Less than 220

12

220

- 229

  • 220 - 229

0.029

  • 5 Less than 230

17

230

- 239

  • 230 - 239

0.023

  • 4 Less than 240

21

240

- 249

  • 240 - 249

0.023

  • 4 Less than 250

25

250

- 259

  • 250 - 259

0.080

  • 14 Less than 260

39

260

- 269

  • 260 - 269

0.183

  • 32 Less than 270

71

270

- 279

  • 270 - 279

0.297

  • 52 Less than 280

123

280

- 289

  • 280 - 289

0.217

  • 38 Less than 290

161

290

- 299

  • 290 - 299

0.08-

  • 14 Less than 300

175

 
 

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Histogram

Histogram

of Axial Load Data

of Axial Load Data

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Frequency 259.5 269.5 209.5 219.5 289.5 299.5 239.5 229.5
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Frequency
259.5
269.5
209.5
219.5
289.5
299.5
239.5
229.5
249.5
279.5
199.5

Axial Load (pounds)

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Important Distributions

Important Distributions

Important Distributions Important Distributions Normal Uniform Skewed Right Skewed Left Final Review. Triola Final Review. Triola,,

Normal

Important Distributions Important Distributions Normal Uniform Skewed Right Skewed Left Final Review. Triola Final Review. Triola,,
Important Distributions Important Distributions Normal Uniform Skewed Right Skewed Left Final Review. Triola Final Review. Triola,,
Important Distributions Important Distributions Normal Uniform Skewed Right Skewed Left Final Review. Triola Final Review. Triola,,

Uniform

Skewed Right

Skewed Left

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Stem--Leaf

Stem

Leaf Plots

Plots

  • 1010 3838

2727

2828

3838

2323

1515

1111

3939

3939

  • 4040 5252

5757

4444

4646

4646

4545

4141

5858

6565

Stem Leaves 1 015 2 378 3 8899 4 014566 5 278 6 5
Stem
Leaves
1
015
2
378
3
8899
4
014566
5
278
6
5

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Measures of Measures of Center Center Mean Mean Median Median Mode Mode Midrange Midrange Final Review.
Measures of
Measures of
Center
Center
Mean
Mean
Median
Median
Mode
Mode
Midrange
Midrange
Final Review.
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Calculator Basics for

Calculator Basics for

Statistical Data

Statistical Data

1.

1.

Put calculator into statistical mode

Put calculator into statistical mode

2.

2.

Clear previous data

Clear previous data

3.

3.

Enter data (and frequency)

Enter data (and frequency)

4.

4.

Select key(s) that calculate xx

Select key(s) that calculate

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Mean for aa Frequency Table

Mean for

Frequency Table

one more rounded toto one more decimal place decimal place (( rounded than data )) than
one more
rounded toto one more
decimal place
decimal place
(( rounded
than data ))
than data
7
7
2
2
12
11
17
22
8
5
14.4
xx == 14.4
Scores
Quiz
Midpoints
Frequency
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24

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Measure of Variation Measure of Variation Range Range highest highest lowest lowest score score score Final
Measure of Variation
Measure of Variation
Range
Range
highest
highest
lowest
lowest
score
score
score
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Measure of Variation

Measure of Variation

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation

aa measure of variation of the scores

measure of variation of the scores

about the mean

about the mean

(average deviation from the mean)

(average deviation from the mean)

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Measure of Variation

Measure of Variation

Variance

Variance

standard deviation squared

standard deviation squared

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Same Means ((xx == 44))

Same Means

Different Standard Deviations

Different Standard Deviations

s = 1.0 3 6 3 6 3 5 5 5 5 5 s = 0
s = 1.0
3
6
3
6
3
5
5
5
5
5
s = 0
s = 3.0
6
s = 0.8
Pearson
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Standard Deviation
1919
Frequency
4
7
7
7
7
2
4
2
2
2
1
1
7
4
1
1
4
1
4
2
6
3
6
3

Estimation of Standard Deviation

Estimation of Standard Deviation

= usual value) (maximum (minimum 2s 2s x x x + - usual value) ss »»
=
usual value)
(maximum
(minimum
2s
2s
x
x
x
+
-
usual value)
ss »»
lowest value
Range
Range
highest value -- lowest value
Range Rule of Thumb
Range Rule of Thumb
44
44
Range » 4s
highest value

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Rough Estimates of

Rough Estimates of

Usual Sample Values

Usual Sample Values

(mean) -- 22 (standard deviation)

(standard deviation)

minimum »» xx -- 2(s)

minimum ‘‘usual

value »» (mean)

usual’’ value

minimum

minimum

2(s)

(mean) ++ 22 (standard deviation)

(standard deviation)

maximum »» xx ++ 2(s)

maximum ‘‘usual

value »» (mean)

usual’’ value

maximum

maximum

2(s)

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FIGURE x 34% 34% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 13.5% 13.5% x - 1s x - 2s
FIGURE
x
34%
34%
0.1%
0.1%
2.4%
2.4%
13.5%
13.5%
x - 1s
x - 2s
x - 3s
x + 2s
x + 1s
x + 3s
distributions))
(applies
The Empirical Rule
The Empirical Rule
FIGURE 22--1133
bell--shaped
(applies toto bell
99.7% of data are within 3 standard deviations of the mean
shaped distributions
standard deviation
1
68% within
standard deviations
95% within
2

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Measures of Position

Measures of Position

zz score

score

Sample Sample x - x z = s
Sample
Sample
x - x
z =
s
Population Population z = x - µ s
Population
Population
z = x - µ
s

Round toto 22 decimal places

Round

decimal places

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Interpreting ZZ Scores

Interpreting

Scores

Unusual Ordinary Unusual Values Values Values - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3
Unusual Ordinary Unusual Values Values Values
Unusual
Ordinary
Unusual
Values
Values
Values

- 3

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

Z

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Other Measures of

Other Measures of

Position

Position

Quartiles and Percentiles

Quartiles and Percentiles

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Start Finding the Value Finding the Value Sort the data. of the of the (Arrange the
Start
Finding the Value
Finding the Value
Sort the data.
of the
of the
(Arrange the data in
kkththPercentile
Percentile
order of lowest to
highest.)
200
201
204
206
206
208
208
209
215
217
218
Compute
Find the 75th percentile.
k
L =
(
)
n
where
100
(75 ) 11
= 8.75
= L
n = number of values
100
k = percentile in question
The value of thek th percentile
is midway between the Lth value
and the next value in the
Is
Yes
Yes
L
a whole
sorted set of data. Find P k by
number
adding the L th value and the
?
next value and dividing the
No
No
total by 2.
Change L by rounding
it up to the next
L = 9
larger whole number.
Figure
Figure 33--66
The value of P k is the
The 75th percentile is the 9th score, or 215.
Lth value, counting
from the lowest
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Quartiles

Quartiles

QQ

11

== PP 2525

QQ

22

== PP 5050

QQ 33 == PP 7575

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Boxplot Boxplot pulse pulse rates rates (beats per minute) (beats per minute) of of smokers smokers
Boxplot
Boxplot
pulse
pulse rates
rates (beats per minute)
(beats per minute) of
of smokers
smokers
5252
5252
6060
6060
6060
6060
6363
6363
6666
6767
6868
6969
7171
7272
7373
7575
7878
8080
8282
8383
8888
9090
55 -- number summary
number summary
vv Minimum
Minimum -- 5252
vv first quartile Q1
first quartile Q1 -- 6060
vv Median
Median -- 68.5
68.5
vv third quartile Q3
third quartile Q3 -- 7878
vv Maximum
Maximum -- 9090
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Boxplot
Boxplot
Box--and
Box
and--Whisker
Whisker Diagram
Diagram
60
68.5
78
52
90
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Boxplot of Pulse Rates (Beats per minute) of Smokers
Boxplot of Pulse Rates (Beats per minute) of Smokers
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Chapters
Chapters 44 and
and 55
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Fundamentals of

Fundamentals of

Probability

Probability

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Basic Rules for

Basic Rules for

Computing Probability

Computing Probability

Rule 1:

Rule

1: Relative Frequency Approximation

Relative Frequency Approximation

Conduct (or observe) anan experiment

Conduct (or observe)

experiment aa large

large

number of times, and count the number of

number of times, and count the number of

times event AA actually occurs, then

times event

actually occurs, then anan

estimate of P(A) isis

estimate of P(A)

P(A) ˜˜

P(A)

number of times AA occurred

number

of times

occurred

number of times trial was repeated

number of times trial was repeated

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Basic Rules for

Basic Rules for

Computing Probability

Computing Probability

Rule 2:

Rule

2: Classical approach

Classical approach

(requires equally likely outcomes)

(requires equally likely outcomes)

IfIf aa procedure has nn different simple events,

procedure has

different simple events,

each with anan equal chance of occurring, and

each with

equal chance of occurring, and

event AA can occur inin ss of these ways, then

event

can occur

of these ways, then

P(A) ==

P(A)

ss

nn

==

number of ways AA can occur

number of ways

can occur

number of different

number of different

simple events

simple events

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Rule 11

Rule

Relative frequency approach

Relative frequency approach

Throwing aa die 100 times and getting

Throwing

die 100 times and getting

1515 threes

threes

P(3) == 0.150

P(3)

0.150

Rule 22

Rule

Classical approach

Classical approach

P(3 onon aa die)

P(3

die) == 1/6

1/6 == 0.167

0.167

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Probability Limits

Probability Limits

vv The probability of

The probability of anan impossible event isis 0.

impossible event

0.

vv The probability of

The probability of anan event that isis certain

event that

certain

toto occur

occur isis 1.

1.

00 ££ P(A) P(A) ££ 11

Impossible Impossible toto occur occur Certain Certain toto occur occur vv AA probability value must probability

Impossible

Impossible

toto occur

occur

Impossible Impossible toto occur occur Certain Certain toto occur occur vv AA probability value must probability

Certain

Certain

toto occur

occur

vv AA probability value must

probability value must bebe aa number

number

between 00 and 1.

between

and 1.

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Complementary Events

Complementary Events

The complement of event A, denoted

The complement of event A, denoted

byby A, consists of all outcomes

A, consists of all outcomes inin

which event AA does not occur.

which event

does not occur.

P(A)

P(A)

P(A)

P(A)

(read ““not

(read

not AA””))

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Rounding Off Probabilities

Rounding Off Probabilities

vv give the exact fraction or decimal

give the exact fraction or decimal

or

or

vv

round the final result toto

round the final result

three significant digits

three significant digits

P(struck byby lightning last year)

P(struck

lightning last

year) »» 0.00000143

0.00000143

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Definitions Definitions Compound Event Compound Event Any event combining 22 or more Any event combining or
Definitions
Definitions
Compound Event
Compound Event
Any event combining 22 or more
Any event combining
or more
events
events
Notation
Notation
P(A or B)
P(A or B)
==
PP (event
(event AA occurs or
occurs or
event
event BB occurs or they
occurs or they
both occur)
both occur)
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Disjoint Events Disjoint Events AA == Green ball Green ball }} disjoint disjoint events events BB
Disjoint Events
Disjoint Events
AA == Green ball
Green ball
}}
disjoint
disjoint
events
events
BB == Blue ball
Blue ball
44
11
55
P(A or B) == P(A)
P(A or B)
P(A) ++ P(B)
P(B) ==
++
==
88
88
88
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Not Disjoint Events

Not Disjoint Events

AA == Even some events counted twice counted twice events;; some 7 10 8 Overlapping Overlapping
AA == Even
some
events
counted twice
counted twice
events;; some
7
10
8
Overlapping
Overlapping
P(A and B) ==
P(A) ++ P(B)
P(A or B) == P(A)
}}
Even number
==
number
Number greater
BB == Number
greater
than 55
than
counted twice
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4040
6
5
6
1
2
0
4
8
7
3
P(A or B)
5
10
++
2
4
9
8
--
&
7
2
4
10
10
6
8
0
9
6
P(B) -- P(A and B)

Contingency Table

Contingency Table

3939 727 379 379 505 505 642 642 106 106 57 57 2020 727 6969 1818
3939
727
379 379
505 505
642
642
106 106
57 57
2020
727
6969
1818
1212
or
Homicide
Homicide
Robbery
Robbery
Unknown
1118 1118
787 787
95 95
Totals
Assault
Assault
Totals
Unknown
2000 2000
Stranger
Stranger
Totals
Totals
or Rel
Acqu
1426 1426
Rel..

Find the probability of randomly selecting one person from this

Find the probability of randomly selecting one person from this

group and getting someone who was robbed or was aa stranger.

group and getting someone who was robbed or was

stranger.

P(robbed or aa stranger) P(robbed or stranger) == == 0.622 == 1244 ++ 1118 0.622 --
P(robbed or aa stranger)
P(robbed or
stranger) ==
== 0.622
== 1244
++ 1118
0.622
-- 379
2000 2000
2000
2000
2000 2000
2000 2000
1118
1244
379
505 505

** ** NOT Disjoint Events

NOT Disjoint Events ****

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Complementary Events

Complementary Events

P(A) and P(A)

P(A) and P(A)

are

are

disjoint events

disjoint events

All simple events are either inin AA or A.

All simple events are either

or A.

P(A) ++ P(A)

P(A) == 11

P(A)

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Final Review.

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Finding the Probability of

Finding the Probability of

Two or More Selections

Two or More Selections

vv Multiple selections

Multiple selections

vv Multiplication Rule

Multiplication Rule

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Final Review.

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Definitions

Definitions

Independent Events

Independent Events

Two events AA and

Two events

and BB are independent ifif the

are independent

the

occurrence of one does not affect the

occurrence of one does not affect the

probability of the occurrence of the other.

probability of the occurrence of the other.

Dependent Events

Dependent Events

IfIf AA and

and BB are not independent, they are

are not independent, they are

said toto bebe dependent.

said

dependent.

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Find the probability of drawing two cards

Find the probability of drawing two cards

from aa shuffled deck of cards such that the

from

shuffled deck of cards such that the

first isis anan Ace and the second isis aa King.

first

Ace and the second

King. (The

(The

cards are drawn without replacement.).)

cards are drawn without replacement

P(Ace on first card) =

4

52

P(King

Ace) =

4

51

P(drawing Ace, then a King) =

4

4

=

16

52

51

2652

=

0.00603

DEPENDENT EVENTS

DEPENDENT EVENTS

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Independent Events

Independent Events

D G G G G •• Two selections Two selections •• With replacement With replacement PP
D
G
G
G
G
•• Two selections
Two selections
•• With replacement
With replacement
PP (both good) ==
(both good)

PP (good and good)

(good and good) ==

16 25 = 0.64 5 = 4 4 5
16 25 = 0.64
5 =
4 4
5

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example: On On aa TVTV program program itit was reported that there isis aa was reported
Example: On
On aa TVTV program
program itit was reported that there isis aa
was reported that there
60% success rate for those who try toto stop smoking
60% success rate for those who try
stop smoking
through hypnosis.
through hypnosis. Find the probability that for
Find the probability that for 88 randomly
randomly
selected smokers who undergo hypnosis, they all
selected smokers who undergo hypnosis, they all
successfully quit smoking.
successfully quit smoking.
P(all 88 quit smoking) ==
P(all
quit smoking)
P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) ==
P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit) P(quit)
(0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60) •• (0.60)
(0.60)
or
or
88
0.60
0.60
== 0.0168
0.0168
Final Review.
Final Review. Triola
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Small Samples

Small Samples

from

from

Large Populations

Large Populations

IfIf small sample isis drawn from large

small sample

drawn from large

population (if nn ££ 5%5% of N), you can

population (if

of N), you can

treat the events asas independent.

treat the events

independent.

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Chapter Chapter 44 Final Review. Final Review. Triola Triola,, Essentials of Statistics, Third Edition. Copyright 2008.
Chapter Chapter 44
Final Review.
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Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution
0.5
x
P(x)
(# of correct)
0.4
0
.05
.40
1
.10
0.3
P(x)
2
.25
0.2
.25
3
.40
.15
4
.15
0.1
.1
5
.05
.05
.05
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
# of correct answers
Probability Histogram
Probability Histogram
Final Review. Triola
Final Review.
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Requirements for
Requirements for
Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution
SS
PP((xx)) == 11
where
where xx assumes all possible values
assumes all possible values
00 ££ P(
P(xx)) ££ 11
for every value of
for every value
of xx
Final Review.
Final Review. Triola
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Mean, Variance and Standard

Mean, Variance and Standard

Deviation of aa Probability

Deviation of

Probability

 
 

Distribution

Distribution

Mean

Mean

µµ == SS xx •• P(

P(xx))

Variance

Variance

ss 22 == SS[[xx 22 •• P(

P(xx)) ]] -- µµ 22

 

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation

ss ==

ss == Final Review. Triola Final Review.

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

SS[[xx 22 •• P(

P(xx)) ]] -- µµ 22

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Mean, Standard Deviation

Mean, Standard Deviation

 

and Variance of Probability

and Variance of Probability

 

Distribution

Distribution

x P(x) 0 .05 1 .10 2 .25 3 .40 4 .15 5 .05
x
P(x)
0 .05
1 .10
2 .25
3 .40
4 .15
5 .05

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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µ = 2.7 s = 1.2 s 2 = 1.3
µ
= 2.7
s
= 1.2
s
2
= 1.3

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Binomial Experiment

Binomial Experiment

Definition

Definition

1.

1.

The procedure must have aa fixed number of

The procedure must have

trials.

trials.

fixed number of

2.

2.

The trials must bebe independent

The trials must

(The

(The

outcome of any individual trial doesn’’tt

outcome of any individual trial doesn

affect the probabilities inin the other trials.)

affect the probabilities

the other trials.)

3.

3.

Each trial must have all outcomes

Each trial must have all outcomes

classified into two categories..

classified into two categories

4.

4.

The probabilities must remain constant for

The probabilities must remain constant for

each trial.

each trial.

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Final Review.

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Binomial Probability Binomial Probability Formula Formula nn !! P(x) == P(x) •• pp xx qq nn--xx
Binomial Probability
Binomial Probability
Formula
Formula
nn !!
P(x) ==
P(x)
••
pp xx
qq nn--xx
••
((nn -- xx ))!! xx!!
Final Review.
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For nn == 1515 and

For

and

Table AA--11

Table

pp == 0.10

0.10

Binomial Probability Distribution

Binomial

Probability Distribution

 

n

x

P(x)

 

x

P(x)

 

15

0

0.206

0

0.206

1

0.343

1

0.343

2

0.267

2

0.267

3

0.129

3

0.129

4

0.043

4

0.043

5

0.010

5

0.010

6

0.002

6

0.002

7

0.0+

7 0.0+ 7 0.000

7

0.000

8

0.0+

8

0.000

9

0.0+

9

0.000

10

0.0+

 

10

0.000

11

0.0+

11

0.000

12

0.0+

12

0.000

13

0.0+

13

0.000

14

0.0+

14

0.000

15

0.0+

15

0.000

 

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example: USUS Air has 20% of all domestic flights and one Example: Air has 20% of
Example: USUS Air has 20% of all domestic flights and one
Example:
Air has 20% of all domestic flights and one
year had 44 of
year had
of 77 consecutive major air crashes inin the United
consecutive major air crashes
the United
States.
States.
Assuming that airline crashes are independent and
Assuming that airline crashes are independent and
random events, find the probability that when seven
random events, find the probability that when seven
airliners crash, at least four of them are from USUS Air.
airliners crash, at least four of them are from
Air.
According toto the definition, this
According
the definition, this isis aa binomial experiment.
binomial experiment.
n = 7
p = 0.20
q = 0.80
xx == 4, 5, 6,
4, 5, 6, 77
Table AA--11 can
Table
can bebe used.
used.
+
+
P(4,5,6,7)
P(4,5,6,7) == 0.029
0.029 ++ 0.004
0.004 ++ 00
++ 00
== 0.033
0.033
Final Review. Triola
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Binomial Probability

Binomial Probability

particular order •• pp xx qq nn--xx P(x) == P(x) Probability of xx Probability of successes
particular order
••
pp xx
qq nn--xx
P(x) ==
P(x)
Probability of xx
Probability of
successes
successes
among nn trials
among
trials
for any one
for any one
••
particular order
nn CC rr
Number of
Number of
outcomes with
outcomes with
exactly xx
exactly
successes
successes
among nn trials
among
trials
Formula
Formula

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example: Find the probability of getting Example: Find the probability of getting exactly exactly 33 left
Example: Find the probability of getting
Example:
Find the probability of getting
exactly
exactly 33 left
left--handed
handed students
students inin aa class of
class of
2020 ifif 10% of usus are left--handed.
10% of
are left
handed.
This isis aa binomial experiment where:
This
binomial experiment where:
nn == 2020
xx == 33
pp == .10
.10
qq == .90
.90
Table AA--11 cannot
Table
cannot bebe used; therefore, we must use
used; therefore, we must use
the binomial formula.
the binomial formula.
33
1717
P(3) ==
P(3)
•• 0.1
0.1 ••
0.9
0.9
== 0.190
0.190
2020 CC 33
Final Review. Triola
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For aa Binomial Distribution:

For

Binomial Distribution:

== ss nn •• pp •• qq µµ == nn •• pp ss 22 == nn
==
ss
nn •• pp •• qq
µµ == nn •• pp
ss 22 == nn •• pp •• qq
Mean
Mean
Variance
Variance
Standard
Standard
Deviation
Deviation

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example: USUS Air has 20% of all domestic flights.

Air has 20% of all domestic flights.

What isis considered the ‘‘unusual

unusual’’ number of USUS Air

considered the

number of

Example:

What

Air

crashes out of seven randomly selected crashes?

crashes out of seven randomly selected crashes?

We previously found for this binomial distribution,

We previously found for this binomial distribution,

crashes

µµ

1.1

0.8

1.4

3.6

(or 0)

ss == 1.1

crashes

2(1.1) == -- 0.8 (or 0)

crashes

-- 22 ss == 1.4

1.4 -- 2(1.1)

1.4 ++ 2(1.1)

2(1.1) == 3.6

µµ ++ 22 ss == 1.4

µµ == 1.4 crashes

The usual number of USUS Air crashes out of seven randomly

The usual

number of

Air crashes out of seven randomly

selected crashes should bebe between

selected crashes should

between --0.8

0.8 (or 0) and 3.6.

(or 0) and 3.6.

Four crashes would bebe unusual

Four crashes would

unusual!!

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Chapter 66

Chapter

Normal Probability

Normal Probability

Distributions

Distributions

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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66--22

The Standard Normal

The Standard Normal

Distribution

Distribution

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Because the total area under

Because the total area under

the density curve isis equal

the density curve

equal toto 1,

1,

there isis aa correspondence

there

correspondence

between area and probability..

between area and probability

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Definition

Definition

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Distribution

aa normal probability distribution that has

normal probability distribution that has aa

mean of 00 and

mean of

and aa standard deviation of

standard deviation of 11,, and the

and the

total area under itsits density curve isis equal

total area under

density curve

equal toto 1.

1.

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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NEGATIVE ZZ Scores

NEGATIVE

Scores

Table AA--22

Table

NEGATIVE ZZ Scores NEGATIVE Scores Table AA--22 Table Final Review. Triola Final Review. Triola,, Essentials of

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Table Table AA--22 vv Designed only for standard normal distribution Designed only for standard normal distribution
Table
Table AA--22
vv Designed only for standard normal distribution
Designed only for standard normal distribution
vv IsIs onon two pages: negative
two pages:
negative zz--scores
scores and
and
positive
positive zz--scores
scores
vv Body of table
Body of table isis aa cumulative area from the left
cumulative area from the left
upup toto aa vertical boundary
vertical boundary
vvAvoid
Avoid confusion between zz--scores
confusion between
scores and areas
and areas
vvZZ--score
score hundredths
hundredths isis across the top row
across the top row
Final Review. Triola
Final Review.
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Table AA--22

Table

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Distribution

00 z x Negative z-scores: cumulative from left
00
z
x
Negative z-scores: cumulative from left

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Table AA--22

Table

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Distribution

X z
X
z

scores: cumulative from left

cumulative from left

Positive zz--scores:

Positive

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Table AA--22

Table

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Distribution

X z zz == xx -- 00 11 µ = 0 s = 1
X
z
zz == xx -- 00
11
µ = 0
s =
1

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Table AA--22

Table

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Distribution

zz == xx X Probability Probability Area == Area µ = 0 s = 1
zz == xx
X
Probability
Probability
Area ==
Area
µ = 0
s =
1

z

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example:

Example:

IfIf thermometers have anan average (mean)

thermometers have

average (mean)

reading of 00 degrees and aa standard deviation of

reading of

degrees and

standard deviation of 11 degree

degree

for freezing water and ifif one thermometer isis randomly

for freezing water and

one thermometer

randomly

selected, find the probability that itit reads freezing water

selected, find the probability that

reads freezing water isis

less than 1.58 degrees. less than 1.58 degrees. P(zz << 1.58) 1.58) == 0.9429 0.9429 mm
less than 1.58 degrees.
less than 1.58 degrees.
P(zz << 1.58)
1.58) ==
0.9429 0.9429
mm == 00
P(
== 11
ss
Example: Example: IfIf thermometers have anan average (mean) thermometers have average (mean) reading of 00 degrees

94.29% of the thermometers will read freezing water less than 1.5858

94.29% of the thermometers will read freezing water less than 1.

degrees.

degrees.

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Example: IfIf we Example: we are using the same thermometers, are using the same thermometers, and
Example: IfIf we
Example:
we are using the same thermometers,
are using the same thermometers,
and ifif one thermometer isis randomly selected, find the
and
one thermometer
randomly selected, find the
probability that itit reads (at the freezing point of water)
probability that
reads (at the freezing point of water)
above
above ––1.23
1.23 degrees.
degrees.
PP ((zz >> ––1.23)
1.23) == 0.8907
0.8907
The percentage of thermometers with
The percentage of thermometers with aa reading
reading
above
above --1.23
1.23 degrees
degrees isis 89.07%.
89.07%.
Final Review.
Final Review. Triola
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Example:

Example:

thermometer isis randomly selected.

AA thermometer

randomly selected.

Find the probability that itit reads (at the freezing point of

Find the probability that

reads (at the freezing point of

water) between ––2.00

water) between

2.00 and 1.50 degrees.

and 1.50 degrees.

PP 0.9332 0.9332
PP
0.9332
0.9332

((zz << 1.50)

PP ((––2.00

PP ((zz << ––2.00)

2.00) == 0.0228

0.0228

1.50) == 0.9332

0.9332

2.00 << zz << 1.50)

1.50) ==

0.0228 == 0.9104

–– 0.0228

0.9104

The probability that the chosen thermometer has aa

The probability that the chosen thermometer has

reading between –– 2.00 and 1.50 degrees isis 0.9104.

reading between

2.00 and 1.50 degrees

0.9104.

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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The Empirical Rule The Empirical Rule Standard Normal Distribution: Standard Normal Distribution: µµ == 00 and
The Empirical Rule
The Empirical Rule
Standard Normal Distribution:
Standard Normal Distribution: µµ == 00 and
and ss == 11
99.7% of data are within 3 standard deviations of the mean
95% within
2
standard deviations
68% within
1
standard deviation
34%
34%
2.4%
2.4%
0.1%
0.1%
13.5%
13.5%
x - 3s
x - 2s
x - 1s
x
x + 1s
x + 2s
x + 3s
Final Review. Triola
Final Review.
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Notation Notation P(a << zz << b) P(a b) between betweenaa and and bb P(zz >>
Notation
Notation
P(a << zz << b)
P(a
b)
between
betweenaa and
and bb
P(zz >> a)
P(
a)
greater than, at least, more than,
greater than, at least, more than,
not less than
not less than
PP ((zz << a)
a)
less than, at most,
less than, at most, nono more than,
more than,
not greater than
not greater than
Final Review. Triola
Final Review.
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66--33

Applications of

Applications of

Normal Distributions

Normal Distributions

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Converting toto Standard

Converting

Standard

Normal Distribution

Normal Distribution

s z = x – m
s
z =
x – m

Figure 66--1212

Figure

Final Review. Triola

Final Review.

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Probability of Sitting Heights Probability of Sitting Heights Less Than 38.8 Inches Less Than 38.8 Inches
Probability of Sitting Heights
Probability of Sitting Heights
Less Than 38.8 Inches
Less Than 38.8 Inches
m = 36.0
38.8 – 36.0
z
=
=
2.00
s=
1.4
1.4
Final Review.
Final Review. Triola
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Probability of Sitting Heights Probability of Sitting Heights Less Than 38.8 Inches Less Than 38.8 Inches
Probability of Sitting Heights
Probability of Sitting Heights
Less Than 38.8 Inches
Less Than 38.8 Inches
PP (( xx << 38.8 in.) == P(
38.8 in.)
P(zz << 2)
2)
m = 36.0
== 0.9772
0.9772
s=
1.4
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6.2 6.2

–– 6.3

6.3

Finding Values of

Finding Values of

Normal Distributions

Normal Distributions

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Procedure for Finding Values

Procedure for Finding Values

Using Table AA--22 and Formula 66--22

Using Table

and Formula

  • 1. 1. Sketch aa normal distribution curve, enter the given probability or

Sketch

normal distribution curve, enter the given probability or

percentage inin the appropriate region of the graph, and identify the

percentage

the appropriate region of the graph, and identify the xx

value(s) being sought.

value(s) being sought.

  • 2. 2. Use Table AA--22 toto find the zz score corresponding toto the cumulative left

Use Table

find the

score corresponding

the cumulative left

area bounded byby xx..

area bounded

Refer toto the BODY of Table AA--22 toto find the closest

Refer

the BODY of Table

find the closest

area, then identify

area, then identify

the corresponding zz score.

the corresponding

score.

  • 3. 3. 2, enter the values for µµ,, ss,, and thezz score found inin

Using Formula 66--2,

Using Formula

enter the values for

and the

score found

step 2, then solve for xx..

step 2, then solve for

xx == µµ ++ ((zz •• ss))

(another form of Formula

(another

form of Formula 66--2)

2)

xx == µµ ++ (( zz •• ss )) (another form of Formula (another form of

(If zz isis located

(If

located toto the left of the mean,

the left of the mean, bebe sure that itit isis aa negati

sure that

negativeve number.)

number.)

  • 4. 4. Refer toto the sketch of the curve

Refer

the sketch of the curve toto verify that the solution mak

verify that the solution makeses sense

sense

inin the context of the graph and the context of the problem.

the context of the graph and the context of the problem.

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Find PP 9898 for Hip

Find

for Hip

Breadths of Men

Breadths of Men

  • xx == mm

++ ((zz ?? ss))

  • xx 14.4 ++ (2.05

== 14.4

(2.05 ·· 1.0)

1.0)

  • xx == 16.45

16.45

Procedure for Finding Values Procedure for Finding Values Using Table AA--22 and Formula 66--22 Using Table

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Table AA--2:

Table

2: Positive

Positive ZZ-- scores

scores

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Find PP 9898 for Hip

Find

for Hip

Breadths of Men

Breadths of Men

The hip breadth of 16.5 in. separates

The hip breadth of 16.5 in. separates

the lowest 98% from the highest 2%2%

the lowest 98% from the highest

16.5 16.5
16.5
16.5

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66--55

The Central Limit

The Central Limit

Theorem

Theorem

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Central Limit Theorem

Central Limit Theorem

Conclusions:

Conclusions:

1.

1.

The distribution of sample means xx will,

The distribution of sample means

will, asas

the sample size increases, approach aa

the sample size increases, approach

normal distribution.

normal distribution.

2.

2.

The mean of the sample means will bebe the

The mean of the sample means will

the

population mean µµ..

population mean

3.

3.

The standard deviation of the sample means

The standard deviation of the sample means

will approach s/

will approach

s/

nn ..
nn
..

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Practical Rules Commonly Used:

Practical Rules Commonly Used:

  • 1. 1. For samples of size nn larger than 30, the distribution of

For samples of size

larger than 30, the distribution of

the sample means can bebe approximated reasonably well

the sample means can

approximated reasonably well

byby aa normal distribution. The approximation gets better

normal distribution.

The approximation gets better

the sample size nn becomes larger.

asas the sample size

becomes larger.

  • 2. 2. IfIf the original population

the original population isis itself normally distributed,

itself normally distributed,

then the sample means will bebe normally distributed for

then the sample means will

normally distributed for

any sample size nn (not just the values of

any sample size

(not just the values of nn larger than 30).

larger than 30).

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Notation

Notation

the mean of the sample means

the mean of the sample means

µµ xx == µµ

the standard deviation of sample means

the standard deviation of sample means

ssxx ==

ss

nn
nn

(often called standard error of the mean)

(often called standard error of the mean)

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Example: Example: Given Given the population of men has normally the population of men has normally
Example:
Example: Given
Given the population of men has normally
the population of men has normally
distributed weights with aa mean of 172 lb. and
distributed weights with
mean of 172 lb. and aa standard
standard
deviation of 2929 lb,
deviation of
lb,
b.) ifif 1212 different men are randomly selected, find the
b.)
different men are randomly selected, find the
probability that their mean weight isis greater than 167 lb.
probability that their mean weight
greater than 167 lb.
zz
== 167
167 –– 172
172 == ––0.60
0.60
2929
1212
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Example: Given

Example:

Given the population of men has normally

the population of men has normally

distributed weights with aa mean of 172 lb. and

distributed weights with

mean of 172 lb. and aa standard

standard

deviation of 2929 lb,

deviation of

lb,

b.) ifif 1212 different men are randomly selected, find the

b.)

different men are randomly selected, find the

probability that their mean weight isis greater than 167 lb.

probability that their mean weight

greater than 167 lb.

The probability that the

The probability that the

..
..

mean weight of 1212

mean weight of

randomly selected men isis

randomly selected men

greater than 167 lb. isis

greater than 167 lb.

0.7257

0.7257

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Chapter 77

Chapter

Estimates and

Estimates and

Sample Sizes

Sample Sizes

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Definition

Definition

Confidence Interval

Confidence Interval

(or Interval Estimate)

(or Interval Estimate)

aa range (or anan interval) of values

range (or

interval) of values used

used toto

estimate the true value of the population

estimate the true value of the population

parameter

parameter

Lower ## << population parameter << Upper

Lower

population parameter

Upper ##

As anan example

As

example

0.476

0.476

<< pp << 0.544

0.544

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Confidence Interval for

Confidence Interval for

Population Proportion

Population

Proportion

ˆ

ˆ

p - E

<

p

<

p + E

where

E =

z a / 2

p q ˆ ˆ n
p q
ˆ ˆ
n

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Notation for Proportions

Notation for Proportions

p =

population proportion

ˆ

p =

x

n

sample proportion