Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Contents
Winter 2012
Roundtable
Chinas Role in the International Conflict-management
The Sudan - South Sudan Reconciliation: More Patience and
Efforts Needed
ZHONG Jianhua
12
15
19
Daniel Large
27
Articles
31
47
67
76
93
Abstracts
Transition and Upgrading of Chinas Diplomatic Planning in the
First Decade of the New Century
CHEN Dongxiao
Chinas diplomatic planning have been enriched and improved in the first decade of
the new century suggesting rapid transition and upgrading of Chinas diplomacy.
Among which, China has introduced the idea of new-type partnership to build up
the big-power strategic mutual trust and balanced development in the new period,
and China has applied the new thinking of sharing responsibilities, expanding
common interests and seeking win-win outcomes to seek common development
with the developing countries, a demonstration of creative thinkings in Chinas
diplomatic planning; China is more active in pushing for the two upgrades of
building new order in the peripheries, and China has applied a new-type mutually
beneficial strategy to step up cooperation with the developing world, a
demonstration of a stronger capability of Chinas diplomatic planning; and China
has aligned Chinese interests with its internationally-expected identity and
responsibility in the international system, and China is increasingly reckoning
constructive contribution as the major content of Chinas interaction with the
outside world, a demonstration of a broadening diplomatic vision of China.
Implications
for
Among all challenges caused by climate change, food crises, water scarcity and
energy insecurity, pose the nexus threat to the world. This paper explores the
connections between water, energy, food production and the hard and soft
dimensions of their impacts on international security and cooperation based for
China and African countries. It first looks at the water-energy-food nexus caused by
climate change and the consequences faced by China and African countries. Then,
it describes Chinas and African countries domestic and international responses to
nexus crisis. Finally, some of the implications of China-Africa cooperation and the
implications for global green development is discussed.
ZHONG Jianhua
The Sudan - South Sudan issue is one of Africa's longest, toughest problems with
profound and lasting significance. Due to the multiple factors such as complicated
history, mixed races, and religious conflicts, two civil wars broke out between the
Northern and the Southern Sudan in the last century, lasting almost 40 years. In
2005, under the mediation of the international community, the two parties signed
the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), ending the longest civil war in the
history of the African continent. A referendum was held in early 2011 in accordance
with the CPA to determine if the Southern Sudan should declare its independence
from Sudan, with 98.83% of the population voting for separation. On July 9th of the
same year, the Government of Southern Sudan declared its independence as the
Republic of South Sudan. The now two countries have paid a tremendous cost for
this hard-won peaceful separation. However, the shadow of conflicts resulting from
the decades-long civil wars is still hanging over the two countries. The road towards
enduring peace is still full of twists and turns. Because of the boundary demarcation
disputes and differences over oil revenues sharing and the status of the Abyei region,
frictions have never stopped between the two countries and sometimes erupted into
fierce border conflicts.
In order to ease the tension, the international community made a collective
response and concerted efforts at a critical moment. This April, the African Union,
as the major mediator, initiated a "Road Map" solution and afterwards convened a
number of negotiations between the two sides. In support of the African Union's
"Road Map", the UN Security Council adopted resolutions 2046 and 2047 in this
May and held consultations and reviews on the Sudan South Sudan issue on a
regular basis. On September 27th, coordinated under the African Union and
witnessed by the international community, the two countries, after a number of
intensive meetings, signed in Addis Ababa the Cooperation Agreement between the
Republic of South Sudan and Republic of Sudan, including a string of agreements
concerning oil revenues sharing, fiscal arrangements, and status of nationals of
H.E. Amb. ZHONG Jianhua is Chinese Governments Special Representative on African Affairs.
Winter 2012
ZHONG Jianhua
other state, etc. These agreements will definitely play a positive role in easing the
two sides' relations, stabilizing their domestic situations, and maintaining regional
stability at large.
At present, the Sudan - South Sudan reconciliation issue is moving in the
direction of peaceful solution and the two sides are given a favorable opportunity
for a real start of peace and a new era of cooperation and mutual benefit. How to
enlarge consensus, promote negotiations, maintain and solidify the current proactive
momentum, and speed up the appropriate settlement of the remaining issues
between the two sides have become the international community's common
challenge and mission. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and
true friend of both Sudan and South Sudan, China has consistently supported and
contributed to the peace process between the two countries. Both in bilateral
relations with the two countries and on multilateral occasions such as in Forum on
China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and China-Arab States Cooperation Forum,
Chinese leaders always tried to persuade the two sides to settle relevant issues
through peaceful negotiations. Since appointed as the Chinese Governments
Special Representative on African Affairs, I have visited the two countries for
several times and kept regular contacts with relevant sides. The diplomatic efforts
made by China in solving the Sudan South Sudan issue have been productive, not
only easing the regional tension and promoting the two sides' reaching an
agreement on oil revenues sharing, but also consolidating China's relations with
both countries.
As an African saying goes, to be without a friend is to be poor indeed. China
always thinks that as neighboring countries indispensable to each other, Sudan and
South Sudan should be friends living in harmony and partners that develop
themselves hand in hand. This is also a wish shared by the international community.
In the next stage, the two countries will have negotiations on the implementation of
the agreements and other unsettled issues. The international community is supposed
to keep its patience and take good care of the seed of peace that has been planted
between the two sides, cultivating it into a luxuriant tree of happiness that shelters
the two countries' people and the people in surrounding areas.
Global Review
ZHANG Chun
Either before or after the peaceful separation, the relationship between former
northern and southern part of Sudan, now Sudan and South Sudan, is full of
disputes and even conflicts and wars, which imposes great pressures on Chinas
foreign policy. However, China tried hard to play a constructive role in both
promoting the realization of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) concluded in
2005 and mediating the contradictions between the two parties after the separation
in 2011, while the policies in different periods are a bit different.
The difference is: its a policy of one country two systems in the first period and
of two countries one system in the second. Since the signing of CPA in 2005,
China has closely engaged into its implementation. To better deal with the
SPLM-led Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), China introduced the policy of
one country, two systems. Since 2005, China and GoSS have established formal
relations, with President Hu Jintao and President Salva Kiir met twice in 2007 and
later China opened a new consulate in Juba in 2008, an example followed by many
Chinese companies. Most significantly, the Chinese Governments Special
Representative for African Affairs, with special interests in Sudan and Darfur issues,
always attaches great importance to the implementation of CPA. While there are
skepticism from the international community, China confirmed the international
community that it supported the full implementation of CPA and would collaborated
with the USA to promote it. Former Envoy Ambassador LIU Guijin met with
Americas special envoy to Sudan Princeton Layman at least 5 times in the half year
Dr. ZHANG Chun is Deputy Director, Center for West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai
Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
Daniel Large, Chinas Sudan Engagement: Changing Northern and Southern Political
Trajectories in Peace and War, The China Quarterly, 199, September 2009, pp. 610626.
Winter 2012
ZHANG Chun
before the referendum, the latter expressed that he believed China had delivered the
right message to both parties of Sudan.
Though the two countries are separated peacefully, the story is not over with a lot
of unsettled disputes, which requires policy adjustment for not only China, but other
external partners including USA, EU, and many others. The reason lies in the
changing fact that there are two countries now. In this context, Chinas policy after
the separation is a policy of two countries, one system. The term one system
means that China has not changed its goal of helping both parties to find a way for
development through resolving their disputes. Here we need to reaffirm that the
goal of the first stages one country, two systems policy always puts the economic
development at the center stage while disputes resolving simply is one of the
preconditions.
In the Chinese eyes, whether the Southern part gains independence or not,
economic development is fundamental to the dispute solution. With the
independence of the South, now its time to shift focus from reconciliation to
development by joining hands together. To meet this goal, both sides need to
abandon the mindset of zero-sum game through weakening the other party for more
reasonable bargaining chips during the negotiations.
However, the reality is that both parties practiced such a wrong win set supported
either by furious or victorious passions. On the Sudanese side, accepting the
separation of South Sudan is the biggest concession, thus it seems reasonable to
hope for greater rewards from the international community and South Sudan in
particular. However, supported by victorious passion, South Sudan chose not to
reward Sudan and even provoked Sudan with assumption that its support will keep
support for it as usual. Thus, a kind of security dilemma is rising. Entering 2012,
since the unilateral decision of South Sudan to stop its oil production and not to
use oil infrastructure in Sudan and the decision of Sudan to close its border with a
shoot-to-kill policy for any smugglers of goods to the South, the bilateral relations
UN Disappointed China not Arrest Sudanese President, US Content with China, Ifeng.com, 2
July 2011, http://news.ifeng.com/world/detail_2011_07/02/7394697_0.shtml, 21-11-2012.
Global Review
deteriorated and reached the breaking point when South Sudan invaded Heglig and
destroyed the oil infrastructure there, which in return agitated the racist attitude of
President Bashir and provoked the strong condemnations from the American side
who is a longstanding friend of the South. There are lots of stories of this kind in
the recent development of this relationship.
China tries hard to persuade the two parties to return to the right track and gain a
real success. Through his shuttle diplomacy, Chinas new Special Envoy
Ambassador ZHONG Jianhua convinced both sides that they should be sensitive to
the expectations of their people and the international community and to take the
talks seriously so as to find win-win solutions that would improve their strained
relations. China warns both sides that economic costs for lasting conflicts cant be
afforded by two peoples. Generally, the economies of the two countries have been
badly affected by their strained relations. While the South has temporarily lost oil
revenue that constituted 98% of its budget, Sudan has lost more than 30% of its
revenue from oil-related fees from the South, and almost more than 80% of its
foreign exchange earnings. Besides, therere more serious and long-term economic
impacts. For example, the monthly inflation rate, which used to be one digit, has
reached more than 30% in Sudan and around 25% in the South in the first half of
2012. The exchange rate, which was less than 3 Sudanese Pounds and 3 South
Sudanese Pounds per dollar, has reached almost 6 Sudanese Pounds and 5 South
Sudanese Pounds in the parallel market during the same period.
China used wisely its leverages to push Sudan and South Sudan to shift their eyes
to rebuild their economy by joining hands together. While Sudan has a better
understanding about this, South Sudan needs time to realize it. For example, in the
first half of 2012, South Sudan strongly held that the mega project of Lamu-Juba
corridor could be the substitute for the pipeline through Sudan port. This policy
stance means that South Sudan takes a zero-sum game theory and tries to cut clear
with Sudan economically, which is a lose-lose scenario that China does not agree
with. Thats why China did not provide supports for this mega project until the two
Luka Biong Deng, Strained Sudan-South Sudan Relations: Who pays the price? Sudan
tribune, 24 June 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com/Strained-Sudan-South-Sudan,43030.
Winter 2012
ZHANG Chun
China Welcomes Oil Deal between Sudan, South Sudan, Xinhua News, 6 August 2012,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-08/06/c_131765167.htm; Jane Perlez, South
Sudan to Get Aid From China; No Oil Deal, New York Times, 25 April 2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26/world/asia/china-to-aid-south-sudan-but-pipeline-efforts-stal
l.html?_r=0.
Global Review
JIAN Junbo
Wen Jiabao: China-Sudan Relations Are Equal and without any Private Interests, see
Chinas News website, 3 November 20006, http://www.sina.com.cn http://news.sina.com.cn/c
/2006-11-03/202211419625.shtml.
Global Review
Gu Guoping, Dong Jirong, The Positions and Policies of China and the US on Darfur Issue:
Based on Each Official States and Speeches, International Forum, Vol. 1, 2010.
Chinese Special Representative to Darfur Hold a Press Conference, see Chinese Foreign
Affairs Ministry website: http: / /www1fmp rc1gov.
How Far Is Darfur from the Peace? International Herald, 2 November, 2007.see
Winter 2012
JIAN Junbo
For realizing stability and peace, Chinese representative to Darfur had also
visited London and Paris, to coordinate with European counterparts. Meanwhile,
Chinese representative in the UN also coordinate with other Security Council
members in order to put forward a commonly agreed UN resolution.
Josh Kurlantzick, China, Myanmar and Sudan: Perusable Idea, New Republic, 4 September,
2010.
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development.
The Chinese special representative Liu Guijin had argued that China didnt agree
to deal with regional conflict by force and coerce; and the principle Chinese
government adhered was respecting Sudans sovereignty and territorial integrity.
After China decided to join in the international action for resolving Darfur issue, it
adhered to the multilateralism as an important principle. It strengthened all actions
aiming at Darfur issue-resolution should be under the UNs leadership and through
multilateral negotiations, dialogues and cooperation, not only among international
actors like China, the US, the AU and so on, but also among different political
groups in Sudan.
At the same time, Chinese considered that promoting Sudans development was
the fundamental and essential principle to reduce the conflict in Darfur, since the
poverty and backwardness was the root of the conflict. Zhai Jun, one Chinese
special representative to Darfur claimed the essential road to resolution of Darfur
issue was to realize the regions economic reconstruction and development.
3. Approaches: persuasion, cooperation, coordination and political dialogue
The approaches that China used in the Darfur issue-resolution are political
dialogues or diplomatic means. Liu Guijin had said "there is only one way to solve
the problem in Darfur only through dialogue and consultation." According to this,
sanction was not preferred by China, diplomatic approach- persuasion, cooperation,
coordination, negotiation and so like these, rather than sanction and unilateral action
was the unique way that China choose to use in Darfur issue. Liu Guijin had
concluded one of the principles used in Darfur issue was adherence to political
approach.
Chinese Representative Explained Chinese Governments Position over Darfur, see China
website, 22 February 2008: www.china.com.cn.
Gwen Thompkins, Chinese Influence In Sudan Is Subtle, NPR, July 29, 2008:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92282540.
Wang Yaping, China and Darfur Issue, cited from Carnegies Perspective on China, 8
September 2007.
Winter 2012
11
Xue Lei is research fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
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13
XUE Lei
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H.E.Dame Rosalind Marsden is EU Special Representative for Sudan and South Sudan.
Winter 2012
15
I also coordinate closely with key regional players and Special Envoys from the UN,
US, and Norway, and, of course, my Chinese counterpart. This coordination,
together with the strong lead given by the AU, has ensured an unprecedented degree
of international consensus that has been indispensable to making progress in
resolving the outstanding issues.
The Addis talks culminated in the signing of nine agreements by Sudan and
South in Addis Ababa on 27 September. These agreements represent a major step
towards normalising relations between the two countries. The implementation of the
agreements will benefit the people of both countries. The EU stands ready to
support the implementation process.
While the agreements are a great achievement, the critical issues of the final
status of Abyei, the disputed and claimed border areas and the conflict in Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile states remain unresolved. Resolving these issues is
essential for full normalisation of relations between Sudan and South Sudan and for
full implementation of the AU Roadmap and UN Security Council Resolution 2046.
The EU supports the clear lead given by the African Union.
The EU remains gravely concerned about the fighting in Southern Kordofan and
Blue Nile states and the serious humanitarian situation this has caused. The EU has
repeatedly insisted on immediate access for international humanitarian agencies to
all civilians affected by the conflict. It is also imperative that the Government of
Sudan and SPLM/North engage immediately in direct talks in order to reach a
cessation of hostilities and a political settlement on the basis of the 28 June 2011
Framework Agreement and with a view to an inclusive national dialogue that meets
the needs and aspirations of all Sudanese citizens within an open and democratic
framework. There can be no military solution to this conflict.
Darfur is also an issue of major concern for the EU. The security situation in
Darfur is serious with an increased threat of physical violence to civilians from
armed groups, inter-communal tensions, aerial bombing and fighting between
forces of the Government and the armed movements, particularly in North Darfur.
The EU is concerned about continuing restrictions on humanitarian access in some
parts of Darfur, including the eastern Jebel Marra, and on UNAMID's freedom of
movement, particularly to areas of recent conflict. Forty seven UNAMID
peacekeepers have been killed in Darfur but none of the perpetrators has yet been
brought to justice.
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Global Review
Also in the case of Darfur, dialogue and negotiations are necessary to resolve the
conflict. That is why the EU welcomed the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur
(DDPD) signed in May 2011 as the basis for reaching a comprehensive and
inclusive peace. The EU has urged the signatory Parties to redouble their efforts to
achieve rapid and tangible progress in implementing the DDPD.
The EU remains strongly committed to helping the people of Darfur. We will
continue to demonstrate that commitment through our support for the peace process;
and political and financial support for UNAMID to fulfil its protection of civilians
mandate (EU Member States fund 45% of UNAMID's budget through their
assessed contributions to the UN). The EU is also funding a large humanitarian
assistance programme, including support for some early recovery activities. The EU
would like to do more to help but our ability to do so depends on progress in three
areas: access for international humanitarian and development workers, security and
implementation of the DDPD.
The EU is committed to promoting democratisation, good governance and human
rights. The EU supports the promotion by the African Union of a holistic approach
to the quest for peace, justice and reconciliation and the need to prioritise
democratisation in both Sudan and South Sudan as a sine qua non for stability and
equitable governance. Local civil society groups in both Sudan and South Sudan
have an essential role to play in this endeavour. The EU is a strong supporter of
civil society organisations in both countries.
Besides our political engagement, humanitarian and development assistance is a
core part of our engagement in both Sudans. Since 2005, the EU has committed
development assistance of over 650 million euros to South Sudan. Since 2010, the
EU has committed 285 million euros to developing the following sectors: education,
health, agriculture, food security and democratic governance. The EU has also
deployed a Common Security and Defence Policy mission in order to strengthen
security at Juba Airport.
Development assistance to Sudan is more limited given the Government of
Sudan's decision not to ratify the revised Cotonou Agreement. Even so, in 2011 the
EU provided around 47 million euros to vulnerable populations in conflict-affected
areas in the agriculture, health, and education sectors. In 2012, the EU provided 10
million euros for agriculture and basic services in North and South Darfur.
Winter 2012
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Global Review
Thomas Wheeler
While China has already provided some development aid, it is likely that in the
future it will be a source of considerably more financial assistance to the
Government of South Sudan (GoSS), especially for the construction of
infrastructure. This holds substantial promise for post-conflict reconstruction and
economic development in the worlds newest nation. However, on-going insecurity
remains a significant obstacle. For many of South Sudans people, the absence of a
peace dividend is perhaps one of the biggest post-independence disappointments.
Alongside the continued tensions with its northern neighbour, inter-community
conflicts have escalated to alarming levels, taking lives, displacing families and
wreaking humanitarian havoc. This insecurity prevents the delivery of important
development projects and deters commercial investment. It is widely accepted that
development cannot occur in conditions of heightened conflict and insecurity. The
World Bank notes that no low-income fragile or conflict-affected country has yet to
achieve a single Millennium Development Goal.
While insecurity might restrict economic growth, the reverse is also true:
economic engagement, no matter how well-intentioned, can inadvertently fuel
conflict. Explaining Chinas economic co-operation with a pre-secession Sudan that
was mired with conflict, some Chinese officials espoused the theory of peace
through development. However, as is acknowledged in China, the reality of
economic co-operation presents a far more complex picture. For example, while
Sudan saw GDP growth figures above 10 percent in 2006 and 2007, the country
was far from peaceful in that period.
Saferworld China and conflict-affected states (2012) and Large, D Between the CPA and
Southern Independence: Chinas Post-Conflict Engagement in Sudan (2012) SAIIA, Occasional
Paper No.115.
Winter 2012
19
Thomas Wheeler
Chinese state banks, and Chinese companies, have long been big players in
Sudanese infrastructure development, funding and building railway tracks, water
pipelines, electricity grids, ports and bridges. As the largest consumer of Sudanese
oil, and the biggest shareholder in its oil blocks, China National Petroleum
Corporation (CNPC) made significant investments in the infrastructure required to
extract it. Much of this economic co-operation between China and pre-secession
Sudan likely brought real and tangible benefits for development and, ultimately,
some peoples wellbeing.
Nonetheless, it could never be totally isolated from a context of conflict which
was (and remains) so common to Sudan. In some cases, Chinas economic role may
have inadvertently exacerbated the pre-existing factors that drive conflict. For
example, Chinese dam construction projects were reportedly associated with
displacement and violent protest in regions where political relations were already
tense. The creation of Sudans oil infrastructure, including roads, was associated
with extremely high levels of violence between the Sudanese security services,
armed groups and civilians in oil-rich areas. As argued by one South Sudanese
politician, this history remains a major hurdle in China-South Sudan relations.
Large scale development assistance to South Sudan may come to address one
major criticism that is common among officials and civil society in the
country,which is that, before independence, the benefits of economic co-operation
with China including infrastructure development and jobs overwhelmingly
favoured the North. They say they have built things hospitals and schools but
this is in the North, not in the South, summarises one South Sudanese observer.
Feelings of marginalisation from economic development underpinned armed
rebellion down the path of succession for many Southerners. A substantial boost in
Chinese economic engagement in South Sudan may go some way to redressing
these feelings. In this way, as Chinese officials and academics have long argued,
economic engagement can positively address root causes of conflict. But another
fact also becomes evident: perceptions of where, and to whom, the benefits of
economic co-operation are distributed matters more for stability than whether it is
For example see: Bosshard P, New Chinese dam project to fuel ethnic conflict in Sudan,
Huffington Post, 26 January 2011, and: UN expert urges Sudan to respect human rights of
communities affected byhydro-electric dam projects, Sudan Tribune, 28 August2007.
Deng L, South Sudan: China a strategic partner of the new nation, Sudan Tribune, 16 April
2012.
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delivered at all.
These are obviously extremely complex issues raising difficult questions about
responsibility: was it Chinese companies, or warring parties that turned oil fields
into battlefields? Is it Chinese state banks who should decide whether, where and
how an infrastructure project is implemented, or the national government in whose
country it is being built? If people are displaced, who should ensure that they have
new homes to go to? And who is it that should decide where the fruits of economic
development go?
Clearly, there are no straight forward answers. Of course the GoSS holds primary
responsibility in ensuring that assistance from China is shared equally between the
countrys people, that development is catalysed and that conflict is not exacerbated.
But in order for Chinese officials and companies to support such efforts, they must
acknowledge that economic co-operation will potentially have an impact on the
high levels of violent conflict in South Sudan and at the very least take concrete
measures to ensure that no harm is done.
One way in which to meet this objective is through adopting the three steps of
conflict sensitivity. First, Chinese actors involved in economic co-operation should
understand the conflict context through consulting with all the stakeholders
including the GoSS, state governments, politicians, civil society groups, elders and
local communities. Second, based on this understanding they should identify how
their engagement might impact on conflict by conducting a thorough risk analysis
before starting a project. Third, they should use this information to minimise
negative impacts and promote positive ones, working closely with the host
government and other involved actors. However, in some cases, the risks may
simply outweigh the benefits, meaning that the whole project should be
reconsidered.
For Chinese companies, in both the infrastructure and extractive sectors, conflict
sensitive approaches offer significant benefits for risk management in a dangerous
environment. Better understanding the operating environment and seeking
acceptance from local communities and conflict actors maybe less costly and more
effective than relying exclusively on armed protection from state security services,
who are very often targets themselves. For the Chinese government, applying
conflict sensitivity to its development co-operation can be a way to co-ordinate and
achieve its FOCAC commitments for peacebuilding and contributing to
Winter 2012
21
Thomas Wheeler
post-conflict development. For both Chinese commercial actors and the government,
the approach will help guard against reputational costs that will be felt far beyond
South Sudan.
Future economic co-operation with China can potentially boost development in
South Sudan. It is clear that this is conditional on stability. It is for South Sudans
government, politicians and civil society to achieve peace and security. Outsiders
cannot do this for them; they can only support their efforts. Through reflection on
Chinas role in the recent past, Chinese decision-makers can ensure that how they
choose to help in the future is in line with peace and development.
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Global Review
Introduction
The arrival in the old Sudan of Chinese oil companies in the 1990s and the
signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between President Omer al
Bashirs government and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/ Army
(SPLM/A) in 2005 greatly shaped the relations between China, Sudan and South
Sudan. With expanding investments, and increasing demands to secure them, China
upped its relations with the old Sudan.
Three phases of relations are discernible: the first was a period of low key ties
before the arrival of Chinese oil companies; the second was characterized by
substantial ties with al Bashirs government; and the third was marked by continued
expansion of ties with al Bashirs government and cultivation of relations with the
leaders of SPLM/A. It is argued that Chinese relations with the old Sudan as well as
Sudan and South Sudan blossomed mainly due to mutual interest in development of
oil resources. Given that the development of oil resources is a political matter,
Chinas oft-stated policy of non-interference and no-strings attached has been
questioned. In this article, the reasons for this will be analyzed.
Dr. Leben Nelson Moro is the Director of External Relations at the University of Juba, South
Sudan, and teaches at the Universitys Center for Peace and Development Studies.
Old Sudan refers to the united Sudan before the secession of the Southern region on 9 July
2011.
Ali Abdalla Ali The Sudanese-Chinese Relations: Before and After Oil, Khartoum, Sudan,
2006, p. 47.
Winter 2012
23
Trade and assistance increased. In 1973, for example, 26 percent of old Sudans
cotton exports went to China, representing 13.6 percent of total exports. Besides
cotton, the old Sudan sold gum arabic, oil seeds and other goods. It imported
textiles, building materials and light industry machinery. Moreover, China gave
loans to the old Sudan on easy terms, which led to the establishment of a number of
projects, such as the Friendship Palace, Hassa Heissa Friendship Textile Mill and
Bridge on Blue Nile. Its ties had no-strings attached. However, they were really
more symbolic than politically consequential.
President Nimeiri turned to US companies for support with the search for oil. In
1978, Chevron discovered oil in the Unity State of Southern Sudan. At that time,
Nimeiri was building ties with Middle Eastern countries close to the US, which was
keen to contain the regime of Gaddafi of Libya and that of Menguistu of Ethiopia.
Chevron rapidly built infrastructure to exploit the oil. It planned for pipelines from
the oil fields to Port Sudan. By 1986 oil was supposed to reach international
markets. However, this was thwarted by SPLA attacks. In 1985, Nimeiri was
overthrown.
In 1992, Chevron wound down its activities under US pressure and SPLA threats.
The US banned engagement by American companies with the oil sector in 1997,
accusing the government of Al Bashir, which came to power in 1989, of abusing
human rights and supporting terrorists, including Osama bin Laden. This was to
mark a new pace of Chinese involvement in the old Sudan.
Expanding relations
Chinas relations with the old Sudan grew. Like Nimeiri, al Bashir travelled to
China in 1995 to request help with development of oil resources. This time around
China accepted as it had the technology and interest. It needed oil from abroad to
sustain economic growth. In 1993 China had gone from being a net exporter of oil
to a net importer.
In 1996, despite the SPLA threat, China National Petroleum Company (CNPC)
acquired interests in the old Sudan. Petronas from Malaysia, where al Bashir
Ibid, p.14.
Dan Large, Chinas Sudan Engagement: Changing Northern and Southern Political
Trajectories in Peace and War, The China Quarterly, 2009, p.613.
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Global Review
attended military school, also entered into the country. Indian companies later
joined. Together, they took over oil operations and continued from where Chevron
left off. The atmosphere of conflict, which discouraged risk-averse Western
companies, worked in their favor as competition was low.
In 1999, the old Sudan exported oil for the first time. Six years later, production
reached nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In 2007, oil revenues were estimated at 4
billion US dollars, and economic growth exceeded 10 per cent. China also reaped
huge benefits. It satisfied eight percent of its oil needs with supplies originating
from Sudan.
This achievement had to be protected from the SPLA and other threats, however.
China supported Sudan to secure oil flow. It used its veto to protect al Bashirs
regime in the UN Security Council from sanctions. It also supplied arms, which
were used to secure oil installations.
Clearly, relations were characterized by mutual benefit for al Bashirs regime,
China and its oil companies. However, the move towards peace within the country,
which was being pushed by the US and other Western countries, could destabilize
them.
Balancing relations
In 2005, the regime of al Bashir and the SPLM/A signed the CPA. Without US
pressure this agreement would not have been reached. China quickly established
ties with SPLM/A leaders as they were going to control most of the oil fields from
which Chinese and other companies extracted oil.
Broadly, this experience raised questions about Chinas policy of dealing only
with governments. Traditionally, the state in China is strong and the driver of social
International Crisis Group God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan,
Africa Report, No. 39, 2002.
Leben Nelson Moro, Oil, Conflict and Displacement in Sudan, DPhil thesis, University of
Oxford, 2008.
S.L. Field, The Civil War in Sudan: The Role of the Oil Industry, IUD Ocassional Paper,
Braamfontein, South Africa.
Daniel Large and Luke Patey, Caught in the Middle: China and India in Sudans Transition
DIIS Working paper, p.6.
Winter 2012
25
change. The big companies are owned by the state and work closely with the
government. There are no significant NGOs. Accordingly, China focuses on
building relations with other states.
The case of the old Sudan, Sudan and South Sudan posed challenges for this
policy. China built good relations with al Bashirs regime which was pursuing
devastating wars in the south and later in Darfur. China avoided establishing
relations with the rebels in the south who were to become the leaders of South
Sudan. Other countries dealt with the SPLM/A before coming to power. So, China
was to play catching up when the SPLM/A came to power after 2005.
China has been trying hard to build equal relations with the leaders of the South
and North, which separated in 2011. It has been doing well in this respect. However,
China might learn from the past and not limited its future engagement only to
government leaders, particularly unpopular ones like al Bashir, but also engage with
other players, such as civil society actors and opponents of those in power.
Dissidents or rebels of today might become the leaders of tomorrow!
Conclusion
Chinas relations with the old Sudan evolved from low to high engagement since
the 1950s. Crucial in this transformation was the role played by oil companies that
helped President al Bashirs regime to exploit oil resources. However, this
development posed a significant challenge to Chinas oft-stated policy of
non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. In fact, development of oil
resources has always been a political issue with close links to internal political
developments.
The conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 meant that
China had to deal with SPLM/A leaders who were to rule the Southern region,
which broke away in 2011 to form the Republic of South Sudan. Belatedly, China
forged relations with the new leaders so that oil companies could continue their
operations. It is trying to balance relations with Sudanese leaders and South
Sudanese leaders. However, it should consider engaging with other actors such as
civil society leaders.
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Global Review
A new history
Chinas history of its Sudan future has only very recently come to encompass the de
facto and then the de jure reality of two Sudans. When relations between Sudan and
China changed from traditional to strategic after 1989, this reinforced the
dominance of a northern-centric political geography of relations. This, of course,
carried an official narrative and a sanctioned history of its own, which continued its
own version of a history of Sudans future China relations that had been forged in
the nineteenth century. This is when the founding mythology of the colonial bridge
linking Sudan and China began.
Dan Large is Research Director of Africa Asia Centre, SOAS, University of London.
Winter 2012
27
Daniel Large
J.A.R.Reid, The death of Gordon, Sudan Notes and Records Vol. XX (1937), p. 173.
Available in www.sudanarchive.net.
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Global Review
Winter 2012
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Daniel Large
legacy of Chinas role in Sudans North-South and South-South civil wars after the
1989 NIF coup remains a challenge in relations going forward. Because of Beijings
strong and multifaceted support for Khartoum it is understandable that there were
and remain strong feelings about China. However, Chinas adept diplomacy and the
SPLMs savvy incorporation of China into its own political agenda during the CPA
using China not just in its domestic struggle with the NCP but also in its
international diplomacy demonstrated how at the elite level pragmatism founded
in mutual interest trumped this history, opening a new historic phase.
South Sudan China relations have been reset in political terms, though recent
oil politics have not been easy or straightforward and the legacy of the past is mixed.
The war years will continue to inform perceptions of China in South Sudan,
especially for those in the oil producing areas. At the same time, Chinas history of
support to Southern Sudan after 1972 and more recent attempts to be more
cooperative with independent South Sudan through various gestures of assistance,
and the processes to enhance mutual understanding point toward a better future.
Conclusion
South Sudans relations with China were born and baptised in political fire. That
looks likely to continue, despite the September 2012 agreement on oil and security
related matters between Sudan and South Sudan. The history of South Sudans
China future remains bound up in Sudans relations with China and the continuing
reality, albeit a contested on subject to ongoing violence, of two importantly
inter-related and inter-dependent countries.
Todays expectations that China can deliver in South Sudan where others have
failed hark back to the likes of Emin Pasha and the transformative visions centred
on (controlled) Chinese agency. Given the enormity of South Sudans development
needs today, a hopeful but cautious realism should thus temper any notion of
Chinas ingrained advantage or superiority; recent years have shown that China is
just as subject to the constraints of operating in South Sudan as any other investor.
The history of South Sudans China future will likely become important if current
trends continue, but this scenario depends upon this future history being made.
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Global Review
Prof. CHEN Dongxiao is Deputy Director of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
Yang Jiechi, Review and Outlook of Chinas Diplomacy in the Last Decade, Seek Truth,
no.20, 2012.
Winter 2012
31
CHEN Dingxiao
mindset regarding the rise of big powers. The innovations were carried out in
Chinas diplomatic planning that can be outlined in two aspects as follows:
1. The new-type partnership viewpoint is applied in building the strategic mutual
trust and balanced development of big powers. China has constantly placed the
big-power relations on the key position of the diplomatic chessboard. With the end
of Cold War and the evolution of the globalization, Chinas big-power diplomacy
has experienced deep transition, i.e., China is building a new-type big-power
relationship axised on cooperation and with general and dynamic equilibrium. The
transition is based on Chinas recognition of the substantial change of the
international configuration and big-power relations.
First, the scope of the big-power diplomacy is broadened. China is following the
waves of newly emerging powers and multipolarization of international power
structure in general and, in particular, China is extending its big-power diplomacy
from the traditional Western-power orientation to the newly-emerging-power
orientation, since the newly-emerging-powers are rising in a grouped and
mushroomed fashion, which is altering the Western-centric international power
structure that lasted for the last 500 years. On this basis, China further called for
building an inclusive big-power network including traditional powers, emerging
powers and regional powers, and China stands ready to work with others,
developed and developing countries together, on the basis of universally recognized
norms of international law and multilateral decision making, to deal with the
challenges and the opportunities before the world today.
China not only rejects the concept ofG2, but also dismisses the Cold War
mentality of confrontation between different alliances and sowing discord to
strengthen exclusive and even confrontational military alliance systems. In the
realm of security, China should work for common security in a spirit of democracy,
inclusiveness, cooperation and win-win progress. Internal affairs of a country
Qiu Yuanping, Successful Exploration of Chinas Peaceful Development Road, Seek Truth,
no.20, 2012.
BRICS Partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity, Delhi Declaration, 9 March
2012, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/zlb/smgg/t918949.htm.
Remarks by State Councilor Dai Bingguo at the Joint Press Conference of the Fourth Round of
the China-U.S.Strategic and Economic Dialogue.
China's Peaceful Development, Information Office of the State Council, September 2011,
Beijing, 2011/09/29.
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Global Review
Broad Vision, Shared Prosperity Remarks by President Hu Jintao at the BRICS Leaders
Meeting, Sanya, 14 April 2011.
According to the 2009 statistics of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, inter-state
conflicts declined greatly in number to compare with other periods of history, see: Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI YearbookOxford University Press,
Winter 2012
33
CHEN Dingxiao
strategic mutual trust among big powers. However, in contrast to those in other
historical periods, the present big-power relations involve a complex posture
featuring agreement with differences and rivalry without conflict. China
believes that profound physical, conceptual and mechanical incentives can be
identified behind the present big-power competitive cooperation. By physical
incentive, it means that the world is getting smaller and has become a "global
village"; Countries are more closely linked and interdependent with their interests
more closely integrated than ever before; to some extent, the world has become a
community of interests; those selfish practices of conquering or threatening others
by force, or seeking development space and resources by non-peaceful means are
losing ground. By conceptual incentive, it means that the globalization evolves to
boost the historical transition of international agendas. In the words of President Hu
Jintao, We should view security in a broader perspective. Security is not a
zero-sum game, and there is no isolated or absolute security. No country can be safe
and stable in the absence of peace and stability of the world peace and regions.
China insists that no big power can be immune from those global security threats,
nor can it cope with them alone. Policy coordination and collective cooperation
have become the only option for all big powers in response to the increasingly
severe transnational and global challenges. This historical trend in turn has
boosted the influence of the new security concepts of cooperative security, common
security and relative security in the international community. Mechanism incentive
refers to the trend that big-power coordination mechanism and norm-setting have
made much greater progress today than it did in the Cold War period or earlier. In
addition to the formal international multilateral coordination institutions, various
and frequent, high-level bilateral strategic dialogues have been built among big
powers, so did various smaller multilateral and multilateral dialogues to step up
policy coordination and strategic communication.
Third, re-orientation of new-type big-power relations. It has become a key to
Chinas big-power diplomatic transition to explore new-type big-power relations
China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), International Strategy and
Security Review-2011/1012, Shishi Publication House, 2010, p.9.
China's Peaceful Development, Information Office of the State Council, September 2011,
Beijing, 2011/09/29.
Statement by President Hu Jintao at the General Debate of the 64th Session of the UN General
Assembly, New York, 23 September 2009.
China's Peaceful Development, Information Office of the State Council, September 2011,
Beijing, 2011/09/29.
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Global Review
now that big-power diplomacy is widened in its scope and that their
competition-cooperation is increasingly complicated. Chinas big-power diplomacy
faces three tests throughout the new historical period. Test one is how China can
transcend the stereotype of zero-sum game and confrontation among big
powers, especially between China--the largest emerging power, and the United
States--the largest established power. Since the turn of the millennium, China has
actively called on newly emerging powers to stick to peaceful development road
thanks to globalization and the themes of peace, development and cooperation of
the era, and work together with the established powers to build a new-type,
mutually-beneficial partnership on the basis of respecting core interests and vital
concerns. President Hu Jintao put forward five points at the Opening Session of the
Fourth Round of The China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogues, To build such
a new-type relationship between China and the United States as two major countries,
we need to think creatively, to trust each other, to act in a spirit of equality and
mutual understanding, we need to work actively, and to nourish our friendship,
which reflects Chinas newest thinking on the new-type Sino-U.S. relationship and
is responded positively by U.S. Test two is how to get rid of the parochial
ideological diplomacy, especially the severe restraint of the cold-war thinking
imposing on the big-power relations. We should be more tolerant to one another
and live together in harmony; Mutual learning and tolerance among different
civilizations are an inexhaustible source of strength for social progress; We should
advocate a spirit of openness and tolerance and allow different civilizations and
models of development draw on each other's strength through competition and
comparison and achieve common development by seeking common ground while
reserving differences, pointed out by President Hu Jintao in his statement at the
General Debate of the 64th Session of the UN General Assembly, reflecting a
new value system explored and created by China and its new diplomatic concept to
maintain peace, prosperity and justice of the world. Test three is how to prevent
global governance in the new period from collective actions with leadership
absence, a predicament to big powers. For instance, on the world economic
governance, Chinese government actively calls for sharing responsibility and
leadership of big powers, and emphasizes to adopt an attitude responsible to
Promote Win-Win Cooperation and Build a new-type Relations Between Major Countries,
Address by President Hu Jintao at the Opening Session of the Fourth Round of The China-US
Strategic and Economic Dialogues, Beijing, 3 May 2012.
President Hu Jintaos statement at the General Debate of the 64th Session of the UN General
Assembly.
Winter 2012
35
CHEN Dingxiao
history and the future, bear in mind the common interests of mankind, build on
what we have already achieved and continue to work in concert for strong,
sustainable and balanced growth of the world economy. Moreover, on
international security governance, China calls for seeking security through
development, equality, mutual trust, cooperation and innovation to cope with the
growingly severe traditional and non-traditional security challenges. These are the
concepts of Chinas new-type diplomacy featuring unity, cooperation, mutual
support and joint effort to address problems.
2. Chinas relations with developing countries are redefined as seeking common
development with the developing countries with the new thinking of sharing
responsibilities, expanding common interests and seeking win-win outcomes. It
has been Chinas established diplomatic strategy since the onset of the new century
to consolidate the diplomatic status of developing countries as the basic status in
Chinas overall diplomacy. In this regard, China has to be clear about its own status
and stage of development. China must correctly define its own status of a
developing country before it can correctly define the historical stage of its relations
with developing countries. At the same time, China must make sure that what the
international community sees is a real China, and that they reasonably view Chinas
achievement, difficulties and challenges, as well as its international contributions
and capacity, before China can cultivate a propitious environment of social
mentality and opinions home and abroad for China to build a mutually-beneficial,
cooperative relations with developing countries.
Since the onset of new century, as China has made great progress in its
cooperation with developing countries, the international opinions, especially those
of the West, began to doubt China as a developing country. On the one hand, the
Western developed countries deliberately exaggerate development gaps and
different interests between China and the developing countries on the ground of
economic globalization, and they allege that China is not a developing country and
that Chinas dominance over the world is irreversible on the ground of Chinas
economic achievement, high-new-technology, foreign aid, international
Vice President Xi Jinping addresses the Opening Ceremony of the World Peace Forum in
Beijing, July 7, 2012
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Global Review
influence, etc. The above allegations, whatever their purpose, have compromised
and even weakened Chinas status as a developing country and have impacted
Chinas long-earned, equal, friendly, and mutually-assistant sentiments with
developing countries. On the other hand, the Western countries purposefully
highlighted the deficiency and flaw in the internal governance of the developing
countries as the fundamental reason of their development backward, while the
Western countries omitted the fact that the Western-led international system has
structurally and systematically restrained the systematic development of the
developing countries.
Thus, in the effort to consolidate Chinas relations with developing countries it is
important that the above Western bias should be reversed through competition for
greater international voice. On the one hand, Chinese government and leaders take
on various bilateral and multilateral occasions to brief the world of Chinas status
quo and the direction of its development, stating that Chinas development is a
long and arduous task.The scale and complexity of the challenges that we face in
the course of development are unmatched anywhere else in the world and have been
rarely seen in human history; China is still in the primary stage of socialism and
remains a developing country, and it is hoped that a real China be known to the
world.
Chinas unswerving policy to persist as a developing country is not only in
consistent to Chinas basic national condition, attributes and ability, but also helpful
for defining the basic scope of the Chinas national interests, and for the world to
identify Chinas position in the structure of the international balance of power,
which enables China to assume international responsibility and obligation on a
reasonable principle.
On the other hand, as for the Western accusation on the ill-governance of
Jin Ling and Su Xiaohui, Chinas Status as a Developing Country in Western Perspective,
International Studies, no.3, 2010, p. 17-19; Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World,
Penguin Books: London, 2012; and Arvind Subramanian, The Inevitable Superpower, Why
Chinas Dominance Is a Sure Thing, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, Vol. 90 Issue 5, p66-78.
World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa:from Crisis to Sustainable Growth, Nov. 1989, and World
Bank, Governance and Development, 1992.
Cooperation and Openness for Mutual Benefit and Win-Win Progress, Remarks by President
Hu Jintao at the BRIC Summit, Brasilia, 16 April, 2010.
Getting to Know the Real China, Statement by Premier Wen Jiabao at the General Debate of
the 65th Session of the UN General Assembly, September 23, 2010.
Winter 2012
37
CHEN Dingxiao
developing countries, China stresses that the broad developing countries are in a
disadvantageous position in the current international system and reiterates that the
international community should share more responsibility and carefully listen to the
appeal of the developing countries and the most underdeveloped countries,
without wide development and equal participation, there will be no talk of
common prosperity of the world, nor talk of building fair and just international
economic new order, and only the shared interest, responsibility and mutual
benefit can bring common interest to the international community. China have
understood that the broad developing countries are the major force to push for the
international system to transform in fair and just direction, the major force of the
democratization of international relations, and the major force on which China
relies in its constructive participation in the transformation of international
multilateral mechanism and international system. Since the onset of new century,
Chinese government and leaders has constantly emphasized that China is a
long-term member of the developing countries, and it is a core value of the Chinas
diplomacy to seek political, development and security interest in favor of the broad
developing countries, and pointed out that China will intensify cooperation with
fellow developing countries, and support that they have a greater say in
international affairs. We will remain forever a good partner and brother of
developing countries.
Getting to Know the Real China, Statement by Premier Wen Jiabao at the General Debate of
the 65th Session of the UN General Assembly, New York, 23 September 2010.
President Hu Jingtao remarks at the 11th Conference of Chinese Diplomatic Envoys Stationed
Abroad, July 20, 2009: http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1024/9687354.html.
38
Global Review
Standing Together to Cope with Challenges, Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin Talks
about Asian Situation and China's Diplomatic Work with Neighboring Countries.
Winter 2012
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CHEN Dingxiao
cooperation tie that played a role of ballast to the overall China-periphery relations.
On the other hand, the overall leading role of the sub-regional economic
cooperation mechanism is enhanced. China has tried hard to push for ASEAN+1
and ASEAN+3-led economic cooperation, and taken first to kick off China-ASEAN
free trade area, which encouraged Japan, ROK, Australia, New Zeeland, India and
ASEAN to have signed free trade area agreement. ASEAN+3 mechanism has made
great achievement in financial cooperation: they have implemented the Chiang Mai
Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) and built up a regional foreign reserve bank
worth of $120 billion and Regional Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility,
which have made great contribution to the East Asian economic and financial
stability. China has worked vigorously to advance connectivity construction with
periphery countries, and China is ready to establish all-dimensional, in-depth and
strategic connectivity with ASEAN, which will further enhance Chinas key
position in the regional economic cooperation.
The second aspect is to proactively pursue a regional political, security
cooperation strategy on both eastern and western lines. On the western line,
China regards SCO as a center to construct a stable periphery strategy and China is
exploring a new-type regional cooperation road based on the new security concept
of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, and cooperation, on the implementation
of building border military mutual trust, and on partnership but not alliance in a
sense of comprehensive security, common security and cooperative security. In
recent years, China has deepened Sino-Russian strategic partnership and steadily
advanced intra-SCO economic and cultural exchanges aimed at rendering SCO into
a harmonious and amicable home, a source of strong support for regional security
and stability, a driver of regional economic development, and an effective platform
for international exchanges with greater international influence.
Work Together Towards Deeper Cooperation and Sustained Development, Address by Vice
President Xi Jinping at the Opening Ceremony of the 9th China-ASEAN Business and Investment
Summit and 2012 Forum on China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, Nanning, 21 September 2012.
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Global Review
Winter 2012
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CHEN Dingxiao
42
Global Review
cooperation, viewed the developmental issue with a more macro perspective, and
actively explored new ways and new areas for South-South cooperation and
South-North cooperation, in order to push for extending Chinas bilateral
cooperation with developing countries to multilateral one.
b. China takes a strategic approach to the developmental aid. China has further
combined the two development strategies--developmental aid and developing two
markets (markets home and abroad) and using two resources(resources home and
abroad) in the first decade of the new century to have basically fulfilled the strategic
goal of mutual benefit and common development set up between China and African
Countries. On the conference of China governments work of developmental aid
held in August 2010, China reemphasized the priority tasks of improving and
strengthening foreign aid in the new situation, including optimizing structure of aid,
enhancing quality of projects, enriching content of aid, so as to combine the
increase of economic aid to developing countries and strengthening of independent
development capability with the deepening of Chinas pragmatic, complementary,
mutually beneficial cooperation with developing countries.
c. Reforms of international system are approached in a way of forming blocs.
China has worked together with developing countries to push for reform and
reconstruction of international order. Relying on the collective efforts of the broad
developing countries, China has elevated the status of developing countries
including China in the international economic governance mechanisms of G20, IMF,
world Bank, and through its coordination and cooperation with developing
countries, China has defended the basic right and developmental right of developing
countries in areas of climate change, developmental cooperation, human rights
protection, energy security and food security.
Guide reading on Central Committee on formulating the country's 12th Five-Year Program
(2011-2015) on National Economic and Social Development.
Winter 2012
43
CHEN Dingxiao
fairer and more reasonable international order and endeavoring to build a new,
multilateral and issue-oriented diplomacy centering on co-governance and
coupling with capability and responsibility.
1. Chinas identity in the international system is confirmed that takes into account
both Chinese interest and international expectation. a. China has shifted its
international identity from an outsider or a revolutionary to a participantand
a constructor. China is a responsible country and Chinese people will remain
trustworthy friends and reliable partners of the people of the world. China is a
participant, defender and constructor of the international system, pointed out by
Premier Wen Jiabao. Chinas formal accession to WTO in 2001 marks Chinas
comprehensive participation into the current international system. China has made
substantial and constructive contribution to the international system reform in the
wake of 2008 financial crisis. China not only advocates the spirit of pulling
together in times of trouble to overcome difficulties, puts forward principles and
proposals including comprehensive, balanced, incremental and effective
development, and steps up assistance to the developing countries, but also
expedites its own transformation of development model in order to promote the
global economic recovery. b. China has generally completed the participation in
the international system in all-directions, in broad areas and on deep levels. China
has joined 130-some global and regional, governmental organizations, signed about
200,000 bilateral treaties and over 300 multilateral treaties covering areas of politics,
economics, security, science, education, culture, health, etc. Chinas access to the
international system in a way that shifting from features of passivity, negative, and
resistent in the period before the onset of reform and opening-up to features of
active, preemptive, and integrated thereafter, and from bilateralism to
multilateralism over the two periods, a tremendous change indeed. c. China has
tried to shape the sense and identity in common with those of the international
community in its participation into the international system. The gaps of
perspectives between China and international actors are narrowed. Chinas
awareness of international society has entrenched. For China, the international
community is increasingly interdependent and mutually beneficial in the global era.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao addresses the second meeting of the China-European Union
Forum in Hamburg, Germany, Sept. 13, 2006.
Pan Zhongqi, Chinas Participation, Profit and Influence in the World Order, World
Economics and Politics, no.3, 2007, p.52.
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Global Review
China has done well in living up to the international treaties, and Chinas
socialization level is deepened. China has a strong political will in strengthening
international cooperation and its foreign policy is highly cooperative.
2. Constructive contribution has increasingly become the major content of
Chinas interaction with the outside world. a. As one of the core states that is
shaping the forthcoming international system, China has revised the connotation of
the international order. China is trying hard to call for building a peaceful,
gradualist, multilateral, mutually beneficial, diversified, cooperative and
co-prosperous, new international order, and proposed systematic initiatives of
building a harmonious world aiming at stepping up the ideas of transforming the
international system and global governance. Those initiatives include the notions
that China sticks to the concept of building a fair and just international order, the
concept of mutually beneficial international development, the new security concept
of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equal and coordination, the concept of international
responsibility that allows proactivity and achievement, the concept of
good-neighborly regional cooperation, and the concept of comprehensive national
interest, and China pursues an actively defensive national defense policy and keeps
prudent and cautious in handling international affairs. In this process, China shall
enrich the connotation of the multilateral diplomatic theory, widen the strategic
planning of multilateral diplomacy and build up policy instruments of Chinas
multilateral diplomacy.
b. China comes up with new thinkings of Chinas diplomacy in the new period.
They regard the idea of a harmonious world as the core concept of Chinas
multilateral diplomacy; regard the new developmental concept--the scientific
development in the constructions of politics, economics, culture, society and
ecology--as the path to realize the peaceful development road with Chinese
characteristics; regard building up Chinas cultural, soft power--Chinas
developmental model, life style, cultural values and its endearing, appealing,
influence and competitiveness to the world--as the necessary guarantee of shaping
Chinas relations with the world; regard launching public diplomacy and humanity
diplomacy as major platform of promoting Chinas new thinking and influencing
international opinions; and regard joining and innovating international cooperation
Zhu Liqun, et al., China and International System: Process and Practice, p.315-343.
Qiu Yuanping, Successful Exploration of Chinas Peaceful Development Road, Seek Truth
magazine, no.20, 2012.
Winter 2012
45
CHEN Dingxiao
mechanisms as the institutional bolster to realize Chinas new thinkings. All in all,
with the advent of the new century, Chinas new diplomatic thinking around the
peaceful development with Chinese characteristics broke through the established
theories of international relations and conventional mindset regarding the rise of
great powers, and made an important contribution to the development of the 21st
century international relations and global governance.
c. China has pushed for the reforming and shaping of the regional and
issue-oriented multilateral mechanisms, combined the long-term goals with
short-term breakthroughs, seized the exceptional opportunities emerging from the
international financial crisis, and regarded it as the priority realms for enhancing
Chinas participation in setting the international rules to enhance the capability of
the international financial institutions in their response to the financial
internationalization, and enhance discourse power and power of participation of the
developing countries. At the same time, China has pushed for institutional
cooperation with developing powers to create strategic environment and
institutional guarantee for Chinas peaceful development and deepened financial
and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to enhance Chinas capability
and influence in participating in reforms of international financial and economic
systems.
d. China has developed the economic diplomacy. By the strategic transition of
economic diplomacy, China has integrated political and economic cooperation,
synchronized cooperations both on the levels of states and regions, and developed a
relatively complete system of both looking abroad for investment and attracting
overseas investment in favor of Chinas development strategy.
Qiu Yuanping, Successful Exploration of Chinas Peaceful Development Road, Seek Truth,
no.20, 2012.
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Global Review
Dr. SUN Degang is Associate Professor at Institute for Middle East Studies of Shanghai
International Studies University.
Su Changhe, Empire, Supra-state, and Future East Asia, Guoji Guancha (International
Watch), no.2, 2003, p.1.
William Burr, ed., The October War and U.S. Policy, The National Security Archive, October 7,
2003; Jeffrey Z. Rubin, Dynamics of Third Party Intervention: Kissinger in the Middle East, New
York: Praeger, 1981; pp. 197-225.
Winter 2012
47
SUN Degang
Sun Degang, Chinas Quasi-alliance Diplomacy in the New Period, World Economics and
Politics, no.3, p.74. The first opportunity period is emerged from the Gulf war in 1991 and the
second is from global counter-terrorism and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Global Review
Jacob Bercovitch, ed., Studies in International Mediation, New York: Palgrave Macmillan,
2002, p. 5.
Winter 2012
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SUN Degang
Category one examines the concept and theory of mediation. The research results
of this category mainly include works and essays of Western scholars discussing
definitions, categories, motivations, mechanisms and performance and using
qualitative and quantitative methods that enshrine Western theories and practices of
mediation.
Category two mainly examines mediation cases of national and international
organizations including the United States, Israel, Qatar, the United Nations, that
usually using historical approaches and case studies.
Category three examines mediation in respect of diplomacy and negotiation,
believing that mediation is an instrument of crisis management and conflict
prevention with the intervention of a third party.
Jacob Bercovitch, ed., Studies in International Mediation, New York: Palgrave Macmillan,
2002; Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Sigmund Gartner, eds., International Conflict Mediation: New
approaches and findings, London and New York: Routledge, 2009; Jacob Bercovitch, etc., The
SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution, Los Angeles: SAGE, 2009; Eileen Carroll and Karl
Machie, International MediationThe Art of Business Diplomacy, The Hague, London and
Boston: Kluwer Law International, 2000; Folberg Golam, Lawyer Negotiation: Theory, Practice,
and Law, New York: Aspen Publishers, 2006; Carrie Menkel-Meadow, Lela Porter Love, and
Andrea Kupfer Schneider, Mediation: Practice, Policy, and Ethics, New York: ASPEN, 2006;
Carrie Menkel-Meadow, ed., Mediation: Theory, Policy and Practice, Aldershot: Ashgate, 2001;
Marieke Kleiboer, The Multiple Realities of International Mediation, Boulder and London: Lynne
Rienner Publishers, 1998; Burcu Savun, Information, Bias, and Mediation Success,
International Studies Quarterly, Vol, 52, No. 1, 2008; Saadia Touval and William Zartman, eds.,
International Mediation in Theory and Practice, Boulder: Westview Press, 1985; Dennis J.
Sandole, etc., Handbook of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, London and New York: Routledge,
2009; Ye Xingping, On International Mediation, Wuhan University Journal (philosophy and
sociology), 1997, no.2; Qi Haixia, On Performance of Internatoinal Mediations, International
Political Science, 2005, no.4.
effrey Z. Rubin, Dynamics of Third Party Intervention: Kissinger in the Middle East, New York:
Praeger, 1981; Dale Bagshaw and Elisabeth Porter, eds., Mediation in the Asia-Pacific Region:
Transforming Conflicts and Building Peace, London and New York: Routledge, 2009; K. Venkata
Raman, ed., Dispute Settlement Through the United Nations, New York: Oceana Publications,
1977; Kenneth W. Stein, Heroic Diplomacy: Sadat, Kissinger, Carter, Begin and the Quest for
Arab-Israeli Peace, London: Routledge, 1999; Mordechai Gazit, Israeli Diplomacy and the Quest
for Peace, London: Frank Cass, 2002; Sun Degang, The Fourth the Middle East War in 1973 and
the U.S. Mediaiton Diplomacy, American Studies, 2010, no.1; Liu Baotang et al., On Envoy
Mediation of Chu State, Journal of China foreign affairs university, 1996, no.1; Ding Long and
Zhao Yuanhao, Qatar Foreign Policy and Practice, Arab World Studies, 2010, no.1.
Howard Raiffa, The Art and Science of Negotiation, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London:
Harvard University Press, 1982; Michael Greig and Patrick M. Regan, When Do They Say Yes?
An Analysis of Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars, International Studies
Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 4, 2008; Francois Debrix, Rituals Of Mediation: International Politics
50
Global Review
Category fourth mainly examines Chinas Middle East diplomacy in the new
period, e.g., the special envoy mechanism explored by Liu Zhongmin of Shanghai
International Studies University and the 6-party talks of Korean nuclear issue,
discussed by Zhu Feng of the Institute of International Relations, Beijing
University.
In general, academic research on mediation today are evolved in three tiers. The
first is the tier of mediation diplomatics including basic theories of crisis
management, conflict settlement and preventive defense; the second is the tier of
big-power and regional countries mediation on the Middle East issues including
comparative studies on mediations conducted by UN, Arab League, African Union,
the Gulf Cooperation Council, U.S., Russia, EU, Japan, Qatar, Egypt, Algeria,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc. The third is the tier of Chinas the Middle East diplomacy
in terms of instrument, target, mechanism, resources (including bilateral and
multilateral mediations). Those research outcomes feature pluralism of subjects,
creativeness of approaches and novelty of dimensions, though with obvious
weaknesses.
1. In theoretical terms, they were more concerned with the performance of
mediation by focusing on whether multilateralism is more efficient than
unilateralism and whether symmetry powers work better than asymmetry powers in
the third-party mediation, while they overlooked the analysis on the motivation of
the neutral, third party.
2. They elaborate on the mediations conducted by Western countries, Qatar,
Algeria, UN, Arab League, African Union and international organizations at the
expense of Chinese mediations, especially those conducted in the Middle East in
recent years. This essay therefore tries to make up for the weaknesses by examining
And Social Meaning, New York: University of Minnesota Press, 2003; Oran R. Young, The
Intermediaries: Third Parties in International Crises, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1967;
Howard Raiffa, Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making,
Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2002.
51
SUN Degang
the motivation and model of Chinas the Middle East diplomatic mediation.
Representative
Representative
of country A
of country B
Mediation of the
third party
Trust in
Trust in
Domestic politics
Domestic politics
of country
of country
B
Indirect interaction between conflicting parties
Global Review
Saadia Touval and William Zartman, eds., International Mediation in Theory and Practice,
Boulder: Westview Press, 1985, pp. 22-23.
Winter 2012
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SUN Degang
Britain and Russia on the ground of protecting the suzerainty of Korea, which
resulted in the relaxation of the dispute and Russias commitment not to occupy
Korean territory and British withdrawal from the island, a victory for Chinas
mediation diplomacy for the time-being. Since August 2003, China has staged the
six-party talk mechanism on Korean nuke issue which further exhibited Chinas
vibrant mediation diplomacy. In the Middle East, China participated in peaceful
solution of the Sudan issue, Irans nuclear issue, Palestine-Israel peace process,
Libya crisis and Syria crisis, which also highlighted Chinese-styled mediation
diplomacy.
Sun Degang, on China-Arab Strategic Cooperation, Arab World Studies, 2010, no.6, p.30.
Bahgat Korany, and Ali E. Dessouki, The Foreign Policies of Arab States, Cairo and New York:
The American University in Cairo Press, 2008, pp. 545-596.
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Global Review
Winter 2012
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SUN Degang
Marieke Kleiboer, The Multiple Realities of International Mediation, Boulder and London:
Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998, pp. 89-118.
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Global Review
bilateral cooperation relations in all fields. Upon the tensions broke out in
southern and northern Sudan, Chinese president visited Sudan and sent special
envoy Liu Gui to the mediation between the southern and northern Sudan. They
finally separated peacefully in 2011 thanks to the active mediation of China. By
contrast, Chinese influence is too limited on the southern and northern Cyprus for
China to wage mediation diplomacy on the Cyprus issue.
C. International attention
Hypothesis three: the higher the international concerns is over the hot-spot issues in
the Middle East, the more likely China will come to the mediation diplomacy.
Chinas decision to mediate in the Middle East is not only out of realistic interest,
but also out of international responsibility. Over recent years, along with the rise of
Chinas comprehensive national strengths, comes higher international expectation.
China is expected to assume international responsibility, to provide public goods,
and to maintain international law and order. As a permanent member of Security
Council and a large developing country, China is responsible for maintaining
stability in the Middle East region, to strengthen crisis management in the region
and to promote conflict settlement in the region. No hot-spot issues in the Middle
East other than the issue of Palestine-Israel can pull the nerve of the whole world
and become the barometer of the Middle Eastern political ecology. Being well
aware of the high international attention to the Palestine-Israel issue and the overall
situation of the Middle East is at stake to the issue, China decided to send special
envoy to the issue since 2002, actively conducting mediation diplomacy between
the Arabs and Israelis, which has vigorously pushed for the Palestine-Israel peace
process. Undoubtedly, Chinese realistic interest is so limited on the issue that its
mediation diplomacy is more of a response to the international responsibility than
an account of realistic interest. By contrast, since the international attention is low
over the territorial dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and the issue has been
under control, China has not yet come to the mediation.
D. Intractability of the crisis settlement
Hypothesis four: the easier the hot-spot issue in the Middle East can be settled,
Cao Gangchuan met with Chief of Joint Staff of Sudanese armed forces Haj Ahmed El Gaili,
PLA Daily, April 3, 2007, p.1.
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SUN Degang
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Global Review
Conflicting parties
Nature of conflict
Mediator
Contradiction
between Southern and
northern
Sudanese
and between northern
and Darfur
UN,
African
Union,
U.S.,
EU, China
Ding Long and Zhao Yuanhao, Qatar Foreign Policy and Practice, Arab World Studies, 2010,
no.1, p.9.
K. Venkata Raman, ed., Dispute Settlement through the United Nations, New York: Oceana
Publications, 1977.
Winter 2012
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SUN Degang
Germany,
Russia, China
Palestine state building UN, U.S., EU,
Palestine-Israel borders, Russia, China,
refugees return, claims
on Jerusalem
Palestine-Israel issue
Arab
countries,
Palestine, Israel
Kadafi
government
and Libya Interim
Committee
Power struggle
Syrian crisis
Basher government
and oppositions
Power struggle
Somali issue
Cyprus issue
Western-Sahara issue
Disputes on Gulf
islands
Lebanon issue
Power struggle
Yemen crisis
Saleh's Government
and opposition
Power struggle
Bahrain crisis
Bahrain government
and opposition
On direction of political
reform
France, Russia,
China, League
of Arab States,
African Union
UN, League of
Arab
States,
Russia, China
UN,
African
Union, U.S., EU
UN, U.S.
UN,
African
Union
Trilateral
Committee of
Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, Oman,
UN, U.S., EU,
Qatar
UN,
Gulf
Cooperation
Council
Gulf
Cooperation
Council
In the crisis management, China often approaches with aids and pressure. On the
one hand, China provided all parties with necessary economic aids, skewed trade
policy, tariff reduction on import commodities, invited leader of all parties to visit
China and provide military aid and military training projects in order to reach
agreement between conflicting parties. On the other hand, China would leverage
cutting economic aids and limiting high-level exchanges as to pressure all parties in
order to reach effect of negotiation in a short time. For example, SINOPEC gained
profit in Sudan totaled $25.8 billion or net profit of $14.69 billion to compare with
GDP of Sudan worth $38 billion of the same year. China and Sudan are like a
commonwealth of interest, which is the practical foundation of Chinas mediation
Li Hongwu and Li Xinfeng, Studies on Darfur Issue in global Dimension, World Knowledge
Press, 2008, pp.119, 246.
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Global Review
diplomacy. Chinas combination policy of aids and pressure, its offer of solutions
and its mediation diplomacy for the sake of peaceful separation of the two parties
have prevented them from large-scale military conflicts. China also actively
mediated on the Darfur issue and raised constructive proposals that contributed
wisdom to the peace and stability of Darfur region. In February 2007, President Hu
Jintao visited Sudan, talked with President Bashir, and met with First Vice President
Mayardit and Vice President Ali Taha.
In May 2007, China set up the special envoy mechanism on Darfur issue and
Ambassador Liu Guijin visited southern Sudan, other African Countries, Europe
and U.S. for many times, actively communicated with UN, African Union, League
of Arab Countries and EU, and took advantage of Chinas assumption of the
rotating president of the Security Council to push for the 1769 resolution that
resulted in reaching the agreement of UN, African Union, and Sudan government
on AU-UN "hybrid operation" and sent a 315 troops of multidimensional operation
force. Chinas mediation in Sudan is of the category of deep intervention.
B. Proactive participation
Proactive participation refers to Chinas put-in of a great deal of diplomatic
resources, which includes sending special envoy to participate in the settlement of
hot-spot issues and usually with the participation of Chinese national leaders in the
mediation. In contrast to the category of deep intervention, in proactive
participation China usually does not direct the rhythm of negotiations, nor sets
agenda and provides economic aids and political pressure to impact negotiation.
China is pleased to see the solution of hot-spot issues, though it declines to put in
diplomatic resources to speed up the process of negotiation, nor expects to see
outcomes of negotiations in a short time. For examples, Chinas special envoy has
been conducted shuttle diplomacy for years. Wang Shijie, Sun Bigan and Wu Sike,
former and incumbent special envoys, often shuttled between Pakistan, Israel,
Egypt and Jordan for promoting peace and negotiation. China also actively
participated in 5+1 mechanism to urge dialogue and negotiation on Irans nuke
issue and sought solution through multilateral mechanisms under UN mandate. For
Foreign Policy Research Division, China Diplomacy 2008, World Knowledge Press, 2008,
p.173.
Li Hongwu and Li Xinfeng, Studies on Darfur Issue in global Dimension, World Knowledge
Press, 2008, p.119, and pp.21-22.
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SUN Degang
example, on April 18, 2006, the vice foreign ministers of 6 countries held
close-door meeting in Moscow; on June 1 the same year, the meeting was held in
Vienna and reached agreement to launch a new program for settling Irans nuclear
issue; on April 16, 2008, directors of foreign ministers of six countries and Director
General for External Relations of the Council of European Union held meeting in
Shanghai in discussing program of resuming negotiation on Irans nuclear issue;
and in April 2012, the meeting of 5+1 was held in Istanbul, Turkey, on which
China proposed again to address Irans nuclear issue through diplomatic means
within the UN framework. As did on Palestine-Israel issue, China proactively
participated in the mediation, though China did not seek in dominating
agenda-setting nor proposed programs.
C. Limited mediation
Limited mediation refers to the category of the mediation that China puts in little
diplomatic resources, either participating in mediation for the time being, or does it
on a modest level. Generally speaking, those hot-spot issues are little related to
Chinas realistic interest; the conflicting parties in concern are limited to Chinese
influence; the international attention is low; or no peaceful solution is available in
the short term. In those cases, Chinese special envoys, if any, will be sent
temporarily and symbolically. For example, when Syrian crisis deteriorated in 2012,
Syrian opposition parties were invited to Beijing on February 9. In February 17,
Chinese special envoy, Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun and his 5 people entourage
arrived in Damascus for a visit of two days. Zhai Jun met Syrian leaders and
political parties in order to make some contribution to and play a constructive
role in addressing the Syrian issue. In the category of limited mediation, Chinas
top leaders seldom participate in mediations in person. They instead send officials
of Chinese Embassies or lower officials to the mediations, or invite conflicting
parties to China. For example, on June 21-22, 2011, Mahmoud Jibril, head of the
executive committee of Libya's ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) visited
Beijing and China launched limited mediation diplomacy between Kadafi
government and NTC. In this kind of mediation, China expounds its position and
principle of negotiation rather than lays down timetable and venue.
Steven Erlanger, As Nuclear Talks with Iran Restart, New Hopes for Deal, New York Times,
April 12, 2012.
Chinese government arrived in Damascus, Peoples Daily (overseas), April 18, 2012, p.4.
Libyas opposition leader visits China, Global Times, June 21, 2011
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D. Generally detached
The generally detached mediation can be viewed as indirect mediation, which
means that China would take part not proactively, but indirectly in crisis
management conducted by international organizations like UN. Those hot-spot
issues are less related to Chinas realistic interest; China and conflicting parties
have little to speak of strategic confidence; China can do little to influence the
parties; the international community, especially big powers, pay little attention to
the issues; or they are long-term hot-spot issues that cannot be solved in the short
term. For example, China did not participate proactively in the mediation on issues
of Lebanon, Somali, Yemen, Bahrain, western Sahara, Iran and the United Arab
Emirates, but instead played a indirect role via UN. This is a generally detached
category of mediation diplomacy.
Table 2: Four categories of Chinese mediation diplomacy in the Middle East
Crisis in the
Categories
Relevance
Influence
International
Intractability
Middle East
of mediation
of interests
of power
attention
of crisis
strong
big
high
average
strong
medium
high
great
strong
medium
high
great
medium
little
high
great
medium
little
high
great
medium
little
medium
great
weak
little
low
great
weak
little
low
great
Sudan issue
Irans issue
Deep
intervention
Proactive
participation
Palestine-Israe
Proactive
l issue
participation
Libya civil
Limited
war
mediation
Syria crisis
Somali issue
Cyprus issue
West Sahara
Limited
mediation
Generally
detached
Generally
detached
Generally
Including southern Sudans independence issue and western Sudans Darfur issue.
Since Khartoum government agreed the southern Sudan to hold referendum for independence,
the issue is not difficult to solve. But southern Sudan,northern Sudan and Darfur are contradicted
on resource allocation, which are difficult to solve by mediation.
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SUN Degang
issue
detached
Disputes on
Generally
Gulf islands
detached
Lebanon issue
Yemen crisis
Bahrain crisis
Generally
detached
Generally
detached
Generally
detached
medium
medium
medium
great
weak
little
low
great
medium
little
high
little
weak
little
high
average
VI. Conclusion
As China further grows in its comprehensive national strength, the Middle East
becomes an important part of Chinas bigger-periphery diplomacy and thus an
important strategic bolster of Chinas peaceful rise. Chinas mediation in the Middle
East is an important part of Chinas omnidirectional diplomacy, which is positively
significant to enhance Chinas protection of its overseas interest, its image of a
responsible power, its soft power, and its coordination with other powers.
Chinas mediation in the Middle East covers hot-spot issues with following
features: first, mediation among different parties and ethnicities of sovereign states,
such as Darfur issue, Libyan issue and Syrian issue. It should not be ruled out that
China will involve in addressing the internal conflicts of Lebanon, Yemen and
Somali under the framework of multilateral organizations. Second, China launches
mediation diplomacy among the Middle East countries to address their territorial
and resource disputes between Israel and Palestine, and between Iran and United
Arab Emirates. Third, China mediates between extra-regional powers and the
Middle East countries on issues like Irans nuclear issue. To this research, therefore,
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Global Review
Chinas mediation diplomacies in the Middle East are mainly determined by four
factors: relevance of interest, impact of power, international attention and
intractability of the crisis settlement, which conversely determines the form of
Chinas mediation diplomacies that turns out to be four: deep intervention,
proactive participation, limited mediation and generally detached.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has every reason to
play a more positive role in addressing the Middle East issues. Moreover, Chinas
mediation diplomacy plays a role of bridge among conflicting parties of the Middle
East. China is different from U.S., Europe and Russia. China never colonized in the
Middle East, nor left historic burden in the region. In addition, Chinese culture is
peaceful and reconciliatory, and Chinese doctrine of mean emphasizes
eclecticism, unbiased, detached and non-interference in domestic politics of other
countries. China will only put forward constructive resolutions, sometimes
individually and sometimes in concert. Chinese diplomats are more patient than
their Western counterparts and usually take conviction and persuasion rather than
pressure and coercion, helpful for reaching agreement. Chinas mediation
diplomacy in the Middle East is increasingly sophisticated, and will be very likely
to become a public good that China provides the international community with and
enhance the image of a responsible power of China and its soft-power construction.
Those being said above, Chinas mediation diplomacy has its downsides. First,
the Middle East is low in its position in Chinas general diplomatic vision at least to
date. It is not even behind world powers and periphery countries, but also behind
Africa and Latin America in Chinas diplomatic prioritization. Thus, the diplomatic
resources that China puts in the Middle East diplomacy is severely insufficient and
the unique role of the Middle East in extending Chinas strategic opportunity period
is prevented from being viewed from a strategic high. Second, some in Chinese
academics and politics believe that the Middle East hot-spot issues are so
complicated and intractable that they waste diplomatic resources and mediation
diplomacy. But they actually overlook the issues to stand as a new field for
big-power strategic cooperation and for U.S., EU, Russia, China and groups of
powers to build up a more stable cooperation relationship.
Chen Jiehua, Chinas Diplomatic Strategy in the 21st Century, Current Affairs Publication
House, 2001, p.67.
Sun Degang, Chinas Quasi-alliance Diplomacy in the New Period, World Economics and
Politics, no.3, p.57.
Winter 2012
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SUN Degang
Third, China lacks a powerful pool of talent and reserve of knowledge to support
its mediation diplomacy in the Middle East. Only by mastering the Middle East
languages, Islamic history, culture, national conditions and political system, can
diplomats in the mediation enhance their own personal attraction and strategic
communication ability, and enable Chinese option acceptable to all parties. In sum,
Chinas mediation diplomacy in the Middle East started from scratch, deepening
gradually, to enhance Chinas international influence, moral attraction, cultural
affinity, and also consolidate the diplomatic theory and practice with Chinese
characteristics.
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Global Review
Introduction
After many years of research, the efficient market and the rational man hypothesis
have failed. Other models have proved that there is something else required on the
equation.
First, research was started to work with the individual psychological bias, in
other words, Behavioral Finance. Recently, it has surged a series of papers in which
Winter2012
67
the cultural and financial variables have been related. The application of cultural
concepts in financial areas has result attractive and it has won multiple adepts.
Stultz & Williamson have provided a detailed conceptual discussion about the
culture and its importance in finance. They proposed that the culture, measured
through religion and language, affects to variables such as the rights of investors.
Even, they show evidence that religion is a better predictor of rights of investors
than the level of countrys international trade liberalization. Nonetheless, they find
that the effect of culture decreases when the level of international trade
liberalization increases. Grinblatt & Keloharju proposes that investors tend to invest
more in enterprises that are physically closer to their residence, communicating to
people in the same native language, and with a CEO who has the same nationality
or culture of the investor.
Guiso et al provides an extensive discussion about how culture affects the
investment decisions in financial markets. At the moment of deciding whether to
invest in shares, the investor is afraid of being cheated and this perception of risk is
influenced not only by the individual characteristics of the company where he is to
invest, or the capital market where he is to participate; but also by individual and
cultural characteristics of investors. Less reliable investors tend to invest less in the
stock market. According to Guiso et al, this explains why many of the United
States richest people do not invest in the Stock Exchange. It also explains
differences of participation in the Stock Exchange among countries.
Markus & Kitayama proposed that individuals from individualistic cultures tend
to see themselves as autonomous and independent persons. In collectivist
cultures, the individuals perceive themselves as connected and less differentiated
from others. In individualistic cultures, like the United States, individuals give
more value to their forecasts in function of their personal skills and they are used to
Stulz, R. M., & Williamson R., Culture, Openness, and Finance, Journal of Financial
Economics, vol.70, no.3, 2003, pp.313-349.
Grinblatt, M., & Keloharju, M., How Distance, Language, and Culture Influence
Stockholdings and Trades, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, no.3, 2001, p.1053.
Guiso, L., Sapienza, P. y Zingales, L., Trusting the Stock Market, ECGI Finance Working
Paper, 2007.
Ibid.
Markus, R., & Kitayama S., Culture and the Self: Implications for Cognition, Emotion, and
Motivation, Psychological Review, vol.98, no.2, 1991, pp.224253.
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Global Review
see themselves more like winners; therefore, they overestimate their own abilities,
such that they feel that they are above average. This situation does not happen in
collectivist cultures as Japan.
Traditional explanations for the differences in financial systems fall primarily on
the legal framework, and on the reduction of risk. These two concepts are not
mutually exclusive. The individual perception of uncertainty is strongly influenced
by national culture. Hofstede documents that a variety of perceptions towards risk
in a wide sample of different countries. Kwok & Tadesse show that; the
configuration of the financial system of a country is related to cultural dimensions;
such as, to risk aversion. Countries with a strong risk aversion, as a cultural
dimension, are associated with financial systems that are more focused on banking
than focused in the Stock Exchange. These papers also provide a link between
literature on culture and financial literacy.
Another study that examines the cultural and financial variables is the one
conducted by Chui, Titman and Wei. They show that cultural differences between
nations affect yields in capital markets. Specifically they find a statistically
significant positive relation between individualism with the purchase and sales
volume in the stock market and the price volatility as well as the size of the prize
"Momentum". Momentum Award is the utility that has a zero cost portfolio. It
invests in last year's profitable stocks and taking a short position in the losers.
Breuer & Quinten make a call to create a field of research named "Cultural
finance. It is proved with methods taken from Game Theory and Institutional
Economy the importance of cultural values in making financial decisions.
Hofstede, G., The Cultural Relativity of Organizational Practices and Theories, Journal of
International Business Studies, vol.14, no.2, 1983, pp.75-89.
Kwok, C. & Tadesse S., National Culture and Financial Systems, Journal of International
Business Studies, vol.37, no.2, 2006, pp.227-247.
Chui A., Timan S., Wei J., Individualism and Momentum around the World, The Journal of
Finance, LXV (1), 2010, pp.361-392.
See Jegadeesh N. & Titman, S., Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications
for Stock Market Efficiency, Journal of Finance, vol.48, no.1, 1993, pp.6591.
Breuer, W. & Quinten, B., Cultural Finance, Working Paper (disponible en SSRN), 2009.
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69
Methodology
Nowadays, Shanghai city presents a unique position to make a comparative
research study of cultural perception. On the one hand, the Chinese Financial
System is in a time of great change. In 2001, China signed its adherences
commitment in order to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), which meant
that it would commit to a profound reform of their financial system. They want
them to go from a state system to an open market allowing the involvement of
international banking in China, and in turn, internationalizing the Chinese banks.
When a system is in changes, the users become more sensible and critical in
order to evaluate whether these changes are being taken to improve or they are a
throwback. On the other hand, the Shanghai city is a very cosmopolitan city, with a
big foreigners community which is mainly Americans, Europeans, especially
Germans, and other from the rest of the world.
Taking advantage of these two situations: a financial system in flux and a
multicultural city, we did a survey to assess whether there are differences in
perception due to cultures. This means that we do the same survey about the
financial system to Chinese citizens and foreigners (Anglo-Saxons); both groups
should be residents of Shanghai. If there are significant differences, in the responses
of the two groups, it could be attributed to the cultural differences. It will be taken
care that the variables, of both groups, are similar except for nationality.
In this survey, we will try to see if variables as confidence, risk aversion,
individualism, proximity, or cultural distance, affect or not the Chinese financial
systems perception.
The experiment
We gathered two groups, both with the following characteristics: individuals in full
work cycle, between 25 and 50 years old, who worked in the city of Shanghai for at
least the last two years. We want them between 25 and 50 years old to make sure
that they are in contact with the financial system (through a checkbook, savings
account, internet banking, among others). It was a requirement for them to have a
university degree (except for an entrepreneur interviewed who just had a high
school degree), to speak English, and to work professionally within middle
management, direction or if they used to be owners of their own company.
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Results
Main characteristics of the polled groups
Table 1 shows the main control characteristics of both groups. We can see that age,
gender, and professional activity of both groups are very similar. One noticeable
difference is in the level of income; even though the level of jobs is generally
similar between both groups, the expatriate from a foreign company enjoys a higher
level of salary and benefits than the residents of Shanghai; as seen in the sample.
Table 1. Statistical data from both encuested groups
Statistical data from polled individuals
Anglo-Saxons
Average Age
Average Income
Chinese
37
35,545
34
26,477
Male
Female
29
21
26
24
Scolarship
High School
University
Post Graduate
35
14
42
8
Professional activity
Mid management
34
32
Direct
Enterpreneur
9
7
7
11
(annual in US Dollars)
Gender
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71
Grinblatt, M., & Keloharju, M., How Distance, Language, and Culture Influence
Stockholdings and Trades, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, no.3, 2001, p.1053.
Ibid.
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73
a little higher in whites: 90%, against 82% in China. The point that attracts the most
attention is that 70% of Chinese say to have a family loan against only 14% of
foreigners. This is an effect very significant in a collectivist society where the social
network aims itself socially and financially.
In Question 8 we questioned whether they perceive an improvement in Chinese
banking services in the last 5 years. The 76% of Chinese say that they have
improved and 24% that have improved drastically. 72% of foreigners say that they
have improved and just an 8% perceive that they have improved drastically. A
possible explanation is that in general a foreigner has less time to reside in China
and their comparative horizon is less than Chinese who did see in the beginning of
the decade a bank without computers when everything was based in countless
copies and stamps which does more drastic its comparison with foreigners that
arrived in a China with a automatized banking.
Regarding the improvement of Shanghais stock exchange in the last 5 years,
foreigners are still more skeptical than Chinese. The 76% of Chinese say that
Shanghai stock exchange has improved against only 18% of foreigners. This could
be because this group is limited in the series B where theres less options and
liquidity than in series A of exclusive Chinese access.
In question 10, we asked them about insurance they have. We found a big
difference, the group of 50 Anglo-Saxons in overall they declared to have 103
insurances with an average of 2 per person against 47 of Chinese group that is less
than a half. If we link this with question 7 where we see that Chinese count with
more familiar credits, we will support that Chinese culture is collectivist and it
generates an aim familiar network, and lend support in misfortune, against
Anglo-Saxons. Furthermore, if the Anglo-Saxon is an expatriate and he is away
from his family, other than its natural individualism, the sensation of isolation
increases and from there the necessity of consuming more insurances than Chinese
because Chinese feel protected by their social network.
Finally, we ask exclusively to foreigners how do they feel about banking and
stock exchange in comparison with their country. Regarding banking, the 60%
considered it deficient or very deficient. Independently of which is the reality, it
persists the effect of: mine is better.
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Conclusions
We analyzed the survey results about Chinese financial system out of two groups
living in the financial transformation phenomenon from the same place, Shanghai.
They had similar characteristics like age, gender, professional position, but with
different cultures that lead us to conclude that culture is a differentiator ingredient.
The evidence provided suggests that cultural characteristics influence the answers
and the way of acting from individuals, finding substantial differences between both
groups. Hence, this research provides evidence to show that culture affects man in
making decisions related to money, their personal finance and the financial system
and it disagrees with the assumption in traditional models where men are purely
rational and the moves simply by the maximization of economic benefits.
As future research we could repeat a similar experiment but only with employees
of the financial system, as money managers, so that, we can take advantage of the
increase in foreign companies and foreigners in China's financial system,
specifically in the city of Shanghai.
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Prof. YU Hongyuan is Deputy Director of Institute for Comparative Politics and Public
Policy Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
Some of these ideas and a discussion of climate change can be found in: Yu Hongyuan,
Environmental Change and Asia-Pacific: China Responds to Global Warming," Global Change,
Peace, and Security, vol. 17, issue 1, 2005; Knowledge and Climate Change Policy Coordination
in China, East Asia: An International Quarterly. vol. 21, no. 3; Global Environmental Regimes
and Policy Coordination in China, Journal of Chinese Political Science, vol. 9, no. 2, 2004; and
Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy in Nova Science Publishers, 2008.
Transcript of remarks by Senator John Kerry, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subject:
U.S.-China Partnership on the Road to the U.N. Climate Change Conference 2009, National Press
Club, in: Federal News Service, 29 July 2009.
Anthony Smallwood, The Global Dimension of the Fight Against Climate Change, Foreign
Policy, vol.167, 2008, pp.8-9.
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Global Review
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) always argues that Africa is most threatened by
global warming. While not responsible for the threat of climate change, African
countries are extremely vulnerable to energy-water-food nexus challenges by
climate change. Thomas Schelling argues that China and Africa will suffer from
climate change more than developed countries. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment
Report estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from energy use could rise by 45
percent to 110 percent between 2000 and 2030. The report indicates that
two-thirds to three-quarters of the increased emissions would come from
developing countries. The report also makes it clear that the greater the efforts to
reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, the less severe would be the impact of
climate change. Considering China and South Africa are key stones for BAISC
group, we should attach much more importance to China and African countries'
cooperation and joint actions on nexus challenges by adapting and mitigating global
warming for current and future generations.
I. Water-energy-food Nexus
Climate change presents the world with a broad range of stakeholders from the
water, energy and food sectors in an effort to improve understanding of the
interdependencies and develop a joint perspective on the common challenges.
Global energy consumption is projected to grow by close to 49% from 2007 to 2035.
Food production requires water and energy, the extraction of water requires energy,
and energy production requires water. Food prices are highly sensitive to energy
costs which indirectly affect the GDP of a country as high costs of processing,
irrigation, fertiliser and transportation affect production and lead to lower exports.
Its becoming ever more difficult to provide universal access to water, food and
energy in the crisis time of climate change, close to 1 billion people are
undernourished, 0.9 billion lack access to safe water and 1.5 billion have no source
IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Scientific Basis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
http://www.ipcc.int.
Thomas C. Schelling, 'What Makes Greenhouse Sense?' Foreign Affairs, 81, 3, 2002, p.2.
IPCC, Climate Change 2007Mitigation of Climate Change of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
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YU Hongyuan
of electricity.
Figure 1 Water-energy-food nexus
IEA Data, http :/ / data. iea. org/ ieastore/ stat slisting, Asp. 2009-4-1.
Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011Understanding the Nexus, Background paper for the
Bonn2011 Nexus Conference,
See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001 (3 vols.), Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Granit.J., Lfgren.J. (eds.), Water and Energy Linkages in the Middle East Regional
Collaboration Opportunities, SIWI Paper 16 (SIWI, Stockholm), 2010.
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physical water scarcity. The definition of water scarcity is a region where water
resources development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits and
more than 75% of river flows are withdrawn for agriculture, industry, and
domestic purposes. 2.6 billion people do not have access to improved sanitation
facilities and 884 million people do not use improved sources of drinking water.
The future water use scenario data by McKinsey & Company indicates that by 2030,
we will face a 40% global supply gap of accessible, reliable water supply for
economic development.
Thirdly, water is required to produce energy and energy is necessary to manage
water for different uses. The two assets are strongly linked and the provision of both
is part of basic foundation to stimulate growth and improve livelihoods. World-wide,
about 20% of all electricity is generated by hydropower. As economies develop,
however, the water demands for energy production rise rapidly. In the European
Union (EU), for example, approximately 44% of water is used for energy
production, and in the U.S. the annual rate is over 40%. Billions of people lack
access to modern water and energy services. This fact, coupled with population
growth and growing economies at the national and regional levels, will mean that
the demand for water and energy services will grow significantly over the coming
decades.
Thus, the energy-water-food nexus security caused by climate change presents a
huge challenge to all human beings and needs global cooperation between
developed and developing countries. Increased demand for water, food and energy
Jakob Granit, Andreas Lindstrm & Josh Weinberg, Policy and Planning Needs to Value
Water, The European Financial Review, April - May 2012, pp. 22-26.
Bishwanath Goldar, Water Pricing and Abatement of Industrial Water Pollution: Study of
Distilleries, Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 2009, Vol.4, Iss.2, pp. 95-113.
Jakob Granit, Andreas Lindstrm & Josh Weinberg, Policy and Planning Needs to Value
Water, The European Financial Review, April - May 2012, pp. 22-26.
Diana Glassman, Michele Wucker, Tanushree Isaacman, and Corinne Champilou: "THE
WATER-ENERGY NEXUS: Adding Water to the Energy Agenda", The World Policy Institute,
March 2011.
Jakob Granit, Andreas Lindstrm & Josh Weinberg, Policy and Planning Needs to Value
Water, The European Financial Review, April - May 2012, pp. 22-26.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Pros
pects: The 2006 Revision, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_
Highlights_rev.pdf.
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YU Hongyuan
IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Scientific Basis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
http://www.ipcc.int.
IPCC, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change; Nielson and McElroy, 'Introduction and
Overview', p. 24; Ying Aiwen, 'Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources',
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, vol.61, no.1, 2000, pp. 187-191.
China Xinhua News Agency, China National Action Plan on Climate Change, http://n
ews.xinhuanet.com/politics/2007-06/04/content_6196300.htm, Accessed on March3, 2008.
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Interview with Xu Huiyou, China Agriculture Science and Technology Institute, 12 March
2003.
David Zweig, China's Global Hunt for Energy, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2005, Vol. 84 Issue 5,
p25-38,
Full text of Chinas policies, actions for addressing climate change, BBC Monitoring Asia
Pacific-Political, October 30, 2008.
Paul Harris and YU Hongyuan, Environmental Change and Asia-Pacific: China Responds to
Global Warming", Global Change, Peace, and Security, vol. 17, iss.1, (2005).
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YU Hongyuan
report, Carbon dioxide emissions in China could rise to over 11 bn tonnes in 2030,
compared with 8 bn tonnes in the US, about 4.5 bn tonnes in Europe (OECD
countries), and just over 2 bn tonnes in India. China is already the largest global
producer of coal, wind and solar power; has more nuclear reactors under
construction than anywhere in the world, and hosts the planets largest hydropower
station in the Three Gorges Dam.
Thus, the challenge to meet growing demand for water, food and energy is
perhaps very serious with global warming. China is heavily investing in
maximizing efficiency in water use for energy generation and food production, but
it must ensure enough water is available for production to be expanded. Even worse
than other countries, China accounts for about 35 percent of world steel production
and about 50 percent of the worlds production of cement. These industries and
associated activities are also thirsty for water and deepen the food production
decrease.
Table 1 Energy Structure in 2010
Oil(%)
Gas(%)
Coal(%)
Renewable
energy(%)
China
17.6
4.0
70.5
0.5
India
29.7
10.6
53.0
1.0
USA
37.2
27.2
23.0
1.7
World
33.6
23.8
29.6
1.3
"Melting Asia: China, India, and climate change", Economist, Vol. 387 No. 8583,pp.29-30
Transcript of remarks by Mr. Trevor Houser, Director, Energy and Climate Practice, Rhodium
Group, Session One of a Council on Foreign Relations Symposium on China and Climate Change
and Findings of CFRs Independent Task Force on Climate Change, Subject: Chinese Energy and
Climate
Strategy,
Federal
News
Service,
June
24,
2008,
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16630/symposium_on_china_and_climate_change_session_one.ht
ml.
Christof Rhl, Global Energy After the Crisis, Foreign AffairsVolume 89, Issue 2, 2011,
pp.32.
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Global Review
IEA Data. http :/ / data. iea. org/ ieastore/ stat slisting. Asp. 2009-4-1.
IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
http://www.ipcc.int
"How Africa Can Get the Energy It Needs Without Adding to Climate Change", All Africa,
November 11, 2011.
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YU Hongyuan
"Africa can Increase Food Yield despite Climate Change Challenges, ECA's Dione", African
Press Organization, December 6.
CGIAR/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX, "Africa Most Threatened By Global Warming",
May 24, All Africa, 2001.
United Nations Statistics Division, Millennium Development Goals Indicators, July 14, 2009,
http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/default.aspx.2009-8-2
Changes in Climate Trends Impacting Livelihoods and Food Security in the Sahel and West
Africa All Africa, December 5, 2011.
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$0.20
1.0
Egypt ($5)
China ($7)
Peru ($10)
Croatia ($30)
OECD ($100+)
$0.50
$0.70
$1.00
$3.00
$10.00
8
12
17
50
166
5
7
10
30
100
2.5
3.5
5
15
50
Thus, green development will be the necessary alternative for dealing with
Energy-Water-Food nexus challenges. China and the African countries need to
promote green development while joining the global struggle against global
warming and contributing to global economic growth. The cooperation between
China and African countries is central to global efforts against Energy-Water-Food
nexus with global warming. To make a breakthrough in Energy-Water-Food nexus
challenges, the developed and developing countries must find a balance between the
need for development, their energy consumption and carbon emissions.
3.1 The green development challenges before China and Africa
The changing world is offering developing countries, particularly China less and
less security, because of three things: (a) the battle for new energy commanding
heights, (b) the melting down of global financial system and (c) the mistrust and
misperceptions of different political and ideological systems.
As to the green development, there are more barriers for China and African
countries:
1. Politics. Developed World tends to see low-carbon technology as the core part
of the national competitive power in the future, and therefore lack the political will
to conduct transfer of such technology to the Developing World.
IEA Data. http :/ / data. iea. org/ ieastore/ stat slisting. Asp. 2009-4-1.
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YU Hongyuan
the developing countries with two aspects of challenges. Namely, on the one hand,
the risk of connecting the human rights and nexus security is increasing and
defending the sources and environment sovereignty is the common task of the
developing countries. On the other hand, balancing the relationship of water, food
and energy during the process of economic development and making smart choice.
Consequently China and African countries needs to maintain the solidarity of the
G-77 and China based on the coordination of the BASIC countries, forming a
unified position of objecting the connection between the human rights and the water,
food and energy issue.
China and African countries should continue to demand that developed countries
provide non-commercial technology assistance to developing countries to help them
cope with Energy-Water-Food nexus challenges and cultivate low-carbon emission
economies. For China and African countries, global warming issues are also
intimately linked to efforts to modernize the economy and the associated energy
strategy necessary to bring about such modernization. Furthermore,
Energy-Water-Food nexus challenges should be solved through international
coordination, cooperation and mutual assistance in clean energy development.
Developing countries are deeply dissatisfied with developed countries in this
respect because the latter refuse to pay necessary regard to the constraints imposed
by developing countries lack of development. Wealthy countries, for instance,
place a low priority on technology transfers, and insist on the high price of
intellectual property rights of these technologies.
3.3 China should help African Countries in green development
China and Africa is faced with unprecedented competitive pressure and
opportunities for development. The lack of natural resources and developed
infrastructure has crippled the development of Africa, particularly in green and low
carbon development. Climate change is both a challenge and an opportunity. Africa,
without any historical burden, can accommodate all advanced low-carbon
technologies. As long as Africa can persuade companies to invest here and focus on
these issues, there will be much scope for development. As for emission reduction
and sustainable development, it is necessary to promote the integration of overall
plans and policies on the international level. China already has rich experience in
the coordination of economic development and water, food and energy security.
China shall take full advantage of the Rio+20 Summit to advocate its experience
and achieve the goal of China-Africa cooperation on the area of water, food and
energy. Development and climate change, two interrelated issues, should be
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Global Review
broad basis for developing countries and its cooperation. To this end, China and
African countries should insist on the United Nations dominant position of
addressing climate change. We should safeguard the "G 77 plus China unity, and
emphasize the complementary roles on the eight-nation summit and other
multilateral consultations. China and African countries should also urge the
implementation of the green funds for the vast number of developing countries to
provide various forms of climate change adaptation and mitigation funding.
Climate change negotiations focus on emission reduction targets in real terms
than that of how developed countries to promote the technical and financial support
for developing countries. China and African countries should advocate the
establishment of new cooperation mechanisms. "Hand in hand to cope with global
challenges" should be the important principle of collaboration between China and
African countries. China and African countries should actively plan for a "one
voice" to jointly deal with challenges. China and African countries should play a
leading role in building their own course of sustainable development in the
above-mentioned problems, actively promote the technology and capital flows to
African countries, and encourage all of African countries to embark on low-carbon
economy and sustainable development.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the results are clear: the nexus security of water-food-energy will
transcend general global governance and implies complicated conflicts of politics
and ideology. Because of climate change, water plays a central role in the nexus of
green development. The core issue of nexus security lies in the interaction of water,
food and security. Due to the nexus of the three sectors, it is hardly possible to
resolve the problem by single-sector governance or by one country alone. From the
perspective of resource interdependence, nexus security provides a new explanation
to global resource security, competition, cooperation and conflict, which help
advances water-energy-food research from technological level to diplomatic
strategy level and offers new instrument for global issues. Nexus security
emphasizes that the particular nexus of water-food-energy has an influence on
global strategy dynamics. The shortage of water is the major trigger of conflict.
Because half of global population relies on food from Americas and Australia, the
drought in Australia and the over-exploitation of water and biofuel in the US
increase tension among water, energy and food. Climate change plays a central role
in the nexus of green development. The core issue of nexus security lies in the
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interaction of water, food and security under global climate change. Due to the
nexus of the three sectors, it is hardly possible to resolve the problem by
single-sector governance or by one country alone; international cooperation against
climate change should be put in the first priority, at most part, we should attach
great importance to China-Africa green relations.
The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.
Whatever the outcomes and motivations, in order to deal with energy-water-food
nexus, China and African countries should understand it is in their economic and
national interest to stop waiting and move ahead for green and low carbon
development. They are putting concrete proposals for mitigation on the table in the
international negotiations, taking a constructive approach to energy-water-food with
green development issues in bilateral and multilateral venues, and taking unilateral
action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at home. Despite bearing relatively little
responsibility for the current impacts of climate change, emerging economies have
determined that it is in their self interest to be part of the solution. China and
African countries can also work with other developing countries to offer
comprehensive proposals to green their development, which included specific
targets and timetables in Rio+20 this June. Together with other recently-announced
plans, these proposals marked a sea change in the international debate, breaking the
log-jam of the previous decade for the lag-behind of finance assistance and
technology transfer from developed countries.
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Zhu Ming is Research Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and Ph.D
Candidate of Shanghai Normal Universtity.
Harry G. Broadman, Africas Silk RoadChina and Indias New Economic Frontier, Washington,
D.C.World Bank, 2006.
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mentioned that China and Africa always face same or similar challenges, which
have been the solid basis of mutual cooperation. The second is to what extent China
and Africa can help each other under the framework of FOCAC. Through the
analysis, the author points out the issue of Capacity Gap produced by insufficient
actors.
SourceUnited Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World
Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York 2011.
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Meanwhile, the tough challenges facing Africa are still there. The past East
Africa and the ongoing Sahel drought have shown how weak and un-sustainable of
these affected African states are when they face natural disasters. The aid system of
the international community is also flawed in coping with such a crisis in time.
Besides food security, climate change, regional conflicts and many other challenges,
all these traditional and non-traditional threats demand the solid efforts and
measures of Africa and other nations including China. Due to the long history of
good relations with China, Africa and China always work hand in hand to handle
challenges. In 2008, when China suffered from the devastating earthquake in
Sichuan province, many African countries lent a hand to China within their
capacities. Such kind of mutual-assistance partnership is further enforced against
the background of Chinas fast developments.
An evaluation report about FOCAC is published by the Shanghai Institutes for
International Studies (SIIS) in 2008, which timely highlighted the roles of public
opinion and its future trend, arguing that the successes of the Beijing Olympics and
Beijing Para-Olympics have boosted Chinas position in international politics in
three aspects. The developing countries cherish a greater great power expectation
over China. The developed countries have increased the great power demand over
China as well. Notwithstanding, the great power responsibility is growing even
within China at elite and popular level per se. The 2010 Shanghai World Expo will
strengthen and consolidate Chinas international position further. The international
community will accept the fact of a rising China to a larger extent. Thereby, the
African countries would have higher expectations on China-Africa relations. The
expectations will be reinforced once the commitments made at Beijing FOCAC
Summit are delivered in time, or even ahead of time and over-fulfilled.
More analysis are via ZHU Ming, The Political Obstacles behind the East Africa Famine,
China Social Sciences Today, 4 August 2011, p.13.ZHU Ming, The Governance Deficit of the
East Africa famine, Wenhui Daily, 19 August 2011, p.7.
LI Weijian, ZHANG zhongxiang, ZHANG Chun, ZHU Ming, Beijing Summit & the Third
Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa CooperationAppraisal and Prospects
Number 2, Report of SIIS Project (Shanghai: SIIS, December 2008)pp.29-30.
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ZHU Ming
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and the Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, met in Beijing for the
Fifth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
In order to implement the outcomes of the conference and chart the future course of
China-Africa cooperation in all fields in the next three years, the two sides jointly
formulated and adopted with consensus this Action Plan. In terms of
people-to-people exchanges, the Plan says that:
The two sides noted the holding of the first and second China-Africa People's
Forum and the important declarations issued and believed that the forum serves as
an important platform for comprehensive exchanges and practical cooperation
between people's organizations of China and Africa. The two sides agreed to
institutionalize the forum to give fresh impetus to the China-Africa traditional
friendship.
It is pointed out that as for the global influences of NGOs, the Africans were
watching, the Asians listening, the Latin Americans talking while the North
Americans and Europeans were doing business. By 2011, China has 462
thousand officially recognized NGOs. But almost all of them have little experience
or history in effective international cooperation with their foreign counterparts.
That is no strange that although Beijing has sent one high-level NGO delegation
to Nairobi in 2011 to host the first China-Africa Peoples Forumthe conference is
successful in having had a good beginning but too early to have a deeper enough
cooperation yet. During that conference, African NGOs asked to get direct financial
support from their Chinese counterparts, but Chinese NGOs also faced their own
budget limits, and it was hard to meet the African demands at once. Meanwhile,
the Western NGOs have a longer and deeper cooperation with their African
counterparts. African NGOs are relatively more likely to get fiscal support from
Europe or America. For instance, the Netherlands, a medium-sized European state,
The Fifth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action
Plan (2013-2015), http://www.focac.org/eng/ltda/dwjbzjjhys/hywj/t954620.htm
Ann Marie Clark, Elisabeth Jay Friedman and Kathryn Hochstetler,The Sovereign Limits of
Global Civil Society: A Comparison of NGO Participation in UN World Conferences on the
Environment, Human Rights and Womenin Rorden Wilkinson ed.The Global Governance
Reader, London and New YorkRoutledge, 2005, p.299.
Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Statistical Communiqu, 21 June
2012, http://www.mca.gov.cn/article/zwgk/mzyw/201206/20120600324725.shtml.
Winter 2012
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ZHU Ming
has invested 40 million euros on DRC NGOs. Both China and African should not
only to promote direct exchanges between NGOs, relevant resources are also
needed to facilitate such kind of grass-roots exchange process.
b) Media
Traditionally, the mark of a great power was its ability to prevail in war. But in an
information age, success depends not just on whose army wins but also on whose
story wins. Although Beijing has invested huge resources on its public diplomacy
and soft power section in order to improve its global image, the mainstream global
media is still located in London, Paris, New York, not in Beijing or Shanghai. That
is to say, the western media enjoys the un-challenged privilege to judge China
Africa relations from their perspectives and interests. Now fruitful cooperation
between Beijing and Africa has been the HIGHLIHGT to each side, but it has also
been the HOTSPOT of criticisms of contemporary Sino-African ties. This world
is far from a balanced one. Some have megaphones, some only small microphones
and some none. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi says.
The fast-growing Sino-African relationship has however not been without
controversy, and China regularly finds itself the subject of allegations that it
undermines human rights and governance in its dealings with African governments.
Data is via Uitgaven NGO's werkzaam op Internationale Samenwerking in 2009 in Dem. Rep.
of the Congoaccessed on 9 May 2011.
ZHU Ming, A brief Analysis of Chinese Aid Threat Challenges and Pressures facing
Chinas Diplomacy , in Shanghai Social Science AssociationSSSAed., Chinas Future:
Questions and Challenges (Shanghai People Press, 2008), pp.75-87. ZHU Ming, The
Perceptions of African scholars on Chinas soft power in Africa and the FOCAC , Wenhui Daily,
4 December 2011, p.3.
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi Answers Questions from Domestic and Overseas Journalists on
China's Foreign Policy and External Relations 7th March 2012.
The speech delivered by Mr. Lu Shaye, Director-General of Department of African Affairs of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 9 May 2012, http://www.focac.org/chn/xsjl/zflh
yjjljh/t930097.htm.
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It is pointed out that China has ventured into Africa as a friend. This has forced
the West, aware of its crimes, to sit up because it knows that it could now "lose the
continent". Demonizing China is now the main goal of Western propaganda. The
West is promoting its own politico-economic system as the only one possible in the
world.
C) Chinas construction companies in Africa
A bit different from the above two sectors, China is good at infrastructure. In the
past, the Tanzania Zambia railway served as the symbol of China-Africa
friendship. Last year, the new AU headquarter building had become a new symbol.
Graph 2Sectoral distribution of concessional Loans from China
(By the end of 2009)
Andre VltchekWhen will West ever Learn History LessonChina Daily26 October 2011
p.9.
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ZHU Ming
those in attendance that "the towering complex speaks volumes about our friendship
to the African people, and testifies to our strong resolve to support African
development."
During the Chairman Mao era (1949-1976), all Chinese enterprises did not need
to worry about economic issue, the whole Chinese economic system then was
planned economy. Such a non-benefit driven feature of Chinese enterprises has
matched quite well with the high politics profile of Chinese ODA to Africa. But
since the 1980s, due to the reform and opening-up policy, more and more Chinese
enterprises have transformed to be more and more independent economic units in
market economy circumstance. That is to say, the economic face is rising while the
political face is declining.
Graph 3: Per Capita Net Income of Rural Households and
the Real Growth Rates, 2006-2011
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Policy Recommendations
Regarding the above mentioned flaws, lessons and progress that China has made in
the past decades, several practical reforms could be enacted in the following areas.
a) Think for Africa and BEYOND Africa (From A to A)
Despite the high speed, the history of such a kind of all-dimensioned cooperation
beginning from the 2000 FOCAC is relatively short. In order to outline a better
future, we need to draw lessons and experience not only from the history of
China-Africa relations, but also from other researches beyond China-Africa
relations. For example, China has promised to play more positively in promoting
the regional integration process of Africa. China could borrow lessons from Chinas
regional cooperation with its neighboring Asian countries. It is because such a kind
of China s Asian regional cooperation is more and deeper than Chinas regional
cooperation with Africa. The reasons behind it need not to be emphasized.
China, facing the positive problem of being a capital surplus economy, is
diverting more funds to assist the development of Asian infrastructure, and is
involved in high-level talks with several countries to provide funds and loans for
high-speed rails and related projects across the region. China and Thailand are set to
agree on a plan to build high-speed rail lines that will pass from Southern China
through Laos to Thailand, and then to the border of Malaysia. In 2010, the Thai
Parliament approved the deal in a project likely to cost some US$27 billion. But
Nihon Keizai Shimbun , 5 April 2012, p.4.
National Bureau of Statistics of China, Statistical Communiqu of the People's Republic of
China on the 2011 National Economic and Social Development, February 22, 2012.
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some ASEAN countries are afraid that such projects might de facto divide ASEAN
into two blocs, which are pro-Beijing ASEAN land bloc (including Laos, Thailand,
etc.) and pro-Washington ASEAN sea bloc (including Singapore, Philippines, etc.).
The possible internal split would surely be bad to the integration process of ASEAN
in their eyes.
Such a kind of un-intended double-edge effect of Chinas foreign policy is
emerging not only in Asia, but also in Africa. Some Africans are worried that
Beijings favorable policies towards LDCs of Africa may enable them to depend
more on Beijing instead of on cooperating with their neighbors to promote Africas
regional integration. That is to say, due to the larger scale and scope of
China-Africa cooperation, the relevant research needs to be more comprehensive,
multi-dimensional, far-sighted. Only after that, both Africa and China would be able
to better manage these never-met-before circumstances.
b) Internal reforms of both sides are quite essential.
A nations policy is based on its material capacity or hard power. But it is not a
spontaneous process. Without the relevant domestic policy consensus or willingness,
any good ideas would be still on paper instead of actions. Not to mention that,
Chinas own capabilities are still limited, thats why Beijing still prefers to keep low
profiles facing higher external demands including offering more aid abroad. Facing
this financial crisis, more and more developed and developing countries are arguing
via different channels that Beijing is able and should do more to fight against this
crisis hand in hand with the international community. But Beijing still keeps a low
profile and its reply is a bit conservative. Before G20s London Summit, Beijing
repeatedly insists that what China should and could do first is to keep our house in
order.
Just as what the author has analyzed above, there are quite a lot of obstacles at
present blocking Chinese and Africans to engage each other in a more relaxed way.
More relevant academic papers are available via MA Ying, For Mutual Communication of
Infrastructure and Cooperation between China and Southeast Asia Commemorating the 20th
Anniversary of China-ASEAN Dialogue PartnershipGlobal ReviewMarch/April 2011.ZHOU
Shixin, The Cooperation of China and ASEAM in the Grand Mekong River Region, Around
Southeast Asia, Vol. 1, 2011
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Some Chinese businessmen in Africa always complain about the low efficiency of
their African counterparts and governments. Africa needs to do something to
facilitate inward investments (not only towards Chinese FDI surely). Some
regulations of Beijing are also needed to be upgraded, such as the aid policy,
immigration policy.
These kinds of reforms are mainly not in the charge of Foreign Ministry. But they
have had negative impact on our diplomatic ties. The author believes that top-down
reform approaches are needed to push such reforms step by step.
c) TWO Scientific Approaches
The mutual development cooperation of China and Africa in the field of natural
science (in the form of R&D) would help Africa with the production or even export
of more technology-intensive products (Made in Africa). Or Africa would
continue to worry or even complain about just being the resource supplier to China.
For example, "Africa must not jump blindly from one type of neo-colonialism into
Chinese-style neo-colonialism," cautioned Rene N'Guetta Kouassi, the head of the
African Union's economic affairs department.
The intellectual support in the field of social sciences from both Africa and China
is quite essential to our policymakers, businessmen, etc.. David M. Lamptona
leading American scholar on Chinese studies argues that Chinese power has three
faces. They are might, money and minds. Looking back, we find fruitful examples
indicating how important intellectual contributions could be, e.g. Adam Smith to the
rise of Great Britain, Karl Marx to the founding of the Soviet Union. According to
one recent worldwide research on think tanks, most top think tanks are located in
developed countries and best ones are almost all in western countries. For instance,
among the top thirty international development think tanks, all the top twenty-two
are either from North America (America and Canada) or Europe (France, UK etc).
Only the 23rd one is from China. The existing underdevelopment situation of the
academies of Africa and China are not ideal yet, unable to meet the needs from
Africa Fears Neo-colonialism with China's Foray: Analysts, AFP (Addis Ababa), 30 Sept
2009.
David M. LamptonThree Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money and Minds, University of
California Press, 2008.
James G. McGann, The Global GO-TO THINK TANKS REPORT 2011 - The Leading Public
Policy Research Organizations In The World, Philadelphia, PAUniversity of Pennsylvania19
January 2012.
Winter 2012
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ZHU Ming
The speech is via Building the New Type of China-Africa Strategic PartnershipFull text of
Chinese premier's speech at 4th Ministerial Conference of Forum on China-Africa
Cooperation(November 8 ,2009), http://www.focac.org/eng/ltda/dsjbzjhy/zyjh/t625623.htm.
On 19th September 2011, Prof. David Shambaughs speech titled "China and Global
Governance: Past & Future" in the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
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