Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Transportation Research
Martin Hazelton
martin@maths.uwa.edu.au
M.Hazelton@massey.ac.nz
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Perth
Palmerston North
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The Problem
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Outline
Transportation research (and whats currently wrong with it . . .)
The audience buys a car
Some problems for statisticians:
Speed estimation
Estimation of trip matrices
Modelling day-to-day dynamics of traffic flow
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Transport policy
Pyschology and transport
Transport and urban planning
Transport modelling
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Transport policy
Pyschology and transport
Transport and urban planning
Transport modelling
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Dealer 2:
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Which Dealer?
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Dealer 1:
Dealer 2:
Buy car that needs 1/40 litre per km with prob. 1/2
Buy car that needs 1/10 litre per km with prob. 1/2
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1/E[X] 6= E[1/X]
for a random variable X .
Car buying example illustrates importance of accounting for
variation.
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1111
0000
0000
1111
Detector
Range
= d + l
where d is detector range,
l is mean vehicle length.
Presented to SSAI(WA) on 8 November 2005
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Distance
Time
n
=
s =
y
y
where y is mean occupancy of each vehicle.
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Distance
Time
n
=
s =
y
y
where y is mean occupancy of each vehicle. But note
s = 6=
= s
y
y
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80
60
20
40
Speed (mph)
100
120
10
11
Time of day
Presented to SSAI(WA) on 8 November 2005
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10
18
24
11
23
27
28
29
31
12
33
13
14
16
20
19
37
17
36
38
43
42
44
45
47
18
19
46
49
21
41
39
7
12
16
34
15
REGENT ROAD
15
32
40
22
13
6
10
35
14
30
11
5
8
25
26
UNIVERSITY ROAD
WATERLOO ROAD
GRANVILLE ROAD
17
20
48
LANCASTER ROAD
50
21
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WATERLOO ROAD
24
11
23
27
28
31
29
12
33
13
30
32
21
14
16
20
19
37
17
36
38
41
43
42
44
45
47
18
19
46
49
12
16
34
15
REGENT ROAD
15
39
40
10
22
13
35
14
11
5
8
25
26
GRANVILLE ROAD
3
2
UNIVERSITY ROAD
1
1
17
20
48
LANCASTER ROAD
50
21
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O1
O2
10
10
C
10
D1
Presented to SSAI(WA) on 8 November 2005
10
D2
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O1
O2
10
10
O1
O2
12
D1
O2
11
C
C
10
O1
10
D2
D1
11
12
D2
D1
8
D2
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Example applications:
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trip matrix;
may be adjusted for seasonality, day of week etc.
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Markov Models
Travellers base route choice on combination of travel costs
experienced over finite history.
Inertia may suggest behaviour change only in case of clearly
superior alternative.
Pro: model properties relatively well understood.
Con: no attempt to represent contemporaneous traveller
interaction.
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Summary
Transportation research likely to receive increasing attention as
fuel prices and environmental costs spiral.
Transportation science traditionally dominated by deterministic
models and methods.
Lots of opportunities for statisticians to make major contributions.
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