WHITBY-OSHAWA

[FEBRUARY 10, 2016]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 584 Whitby Oshawa residents on February 8th, 2016. A
mixture of landlines and cell phones were called. Margin of error: +/- 4.34%, 19 times out of 20.
Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PCs SET TO WIN WHITBY-OSHAWA

February 10th 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds PC candidate Lorne
Coe leading in the race to replace former MPP Christine Elliott. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has
a margin of error of +/- 4.34%, 19 times out of 20.
Weve seen a steep drop in the number of undecided voters and PC candidate Lorne Coe now has
a comfortable lead said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Among all voters the PCs lead by 15%, with 40% (+7%) compared to the Liberals 25% (-2%). The
NDP are at 10% (+1%) and the Greens are at 6% (+4%).
When factoring in undecided voters leaning towards a certain party the PCs hold a commanding
17 point lead (46% to 29%).
We expect the Liberals and NDP will outperform their polling numbers continued Maggi. By
elections are notoriously hard to predict, but with limited infrastructure we usually see the Green
Party and Independent candidates perform below their polling numbers. The get out the vote
(GOTV) operations of the three main parties are likely to be formidable on Election Day. As a result
we expect the margin of victory to be less than 17%, but we are predicting a PC victory come
Thursday night, he nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

ALL ELIGIBLE VOTERS

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan 11
OLP

Feb 1
PC

ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)

LORNE COE (PC)
NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)
STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SOMEONE ELSE
SAMPLE

NDP

OGP
All
25%
40%
10%
6%
14%
5%
584

18-34
19%
47%
6%
8%
5%
14%
72

Feb 8
Other
35-49
28%
35%
6%
6%
5%
19%
151

Undecided
50-64
26%
40%
16%
4%
3%
11%
188

65+
27%
41%
15%
2%
6%
10%
173

Male Female
21%
29%
45%
34%
10%
11%
4%
8%
5%
4%
15%
14%
276
308

A4

DECIDED & LEANING ONLY

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan 11

Feb 1
OLP

ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)

LORNE COE (PC)
NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)
STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)
SOMEONE ELSE

PC

NDP

All
29%
46%
12%
8%
6%

18-34
22%
56%
7%
10%
6%

Feb 8
OGP

35-49
33%
42%
8%
9%
7%

Other

50-64
30%
44%
18%
5%
3%

65+ Male Female

29% 25%
33%
45% 52% 40%
16% 11%
13%
3%
6%
9%
7%
6%
5%

A5

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

7%

11%

4%

6%

4%

68%

OLP

PC

NDP

OGP

Other

Undecided

Leaners are less likely to show up to the

polls. These are the votes parties really
have to work for.
- Quito Maggi

A6

Likelyhood to vote VS Party Aliation

Certain*

26%
43%
10%
7%
2%
12%

Likely

17%
30%
9%
7%
22%
22%

Might

23%
20%
14%
9%
2%
32%

Unlikely

26%
33%
5%
3%
15%
18%
0

10

*Note: Certain to vote or already voted

15

20

25

30

35

40

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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