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MARKE T
PERSPECTIVES
executive summary
Over the past six years, U.S. investors have been rewarded for staying close to
home. U.S. equities have entered the seventh year of the bull market, one of the
longest in history, and bond yields have remained contained thanks to massive
central bank intervention, restrained growth and low inflation. A traditional
60/40 blend of U.S. stocks and bonds has performed well relative to most other
asset allocations.
However, with bond yields still near record lows and U.S. equity valuations
stretched, this may not be the case going forward. Three arguments support the
need for more international diversification, particularly in equities:
RUSS KOESTERICH
Managing Director,
BlackRock Chief
Investment Strategist
[2]
27.41
16.19
13.62
13.04
10.22
9.37
8.84
6.05
5.81
5.33
4.38
4.14
4.10
3.06
2.62
2.21
1.35
1.24
-0.37
-1.49
* Total return in local currency except currencies, gold and copper which are spot returns.
Government bonds are 10-year benchmark issues
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute, 04/13/15.
B L A C K R O C K [3]
EQUITIES
100
PERCENTILE RANKING
EXPENSIVE
75
AVERAGE
50
25
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, OECDBlackRock
CHEAPInvestment Institute 02/01/15
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Developed
Emerging
Frontier
Asia ex-Japan
Europe ex-U.K.
Emerging
South Africa
India
Mexico
Taiwan
Brazil
Korea
China
Russia
Developed
U.S.
Germany
Canada
France
Australia
Spain
Italy
U.K.
Japan
German Bund
U.K. Gilt
Japanese GB
U.S. Treasury
U.S. TIPS
2014
[4]
HOME ALONE
Beyond valuation and the relative economic position of the
United States, there is a more basic reason to consider adding
international equities to even a conservative portfolio. While an
overweight to the United States has benefited portfolios over
the recent past, over the long term investors should consider
the potential benefits of diversification and better riskadjusted returns that meaningful exposure to international
equity markets can offer.
PERCENT
32
28
24
20
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010 2013
.75
0.64
.50
.25
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
B L A C K R O C K [5]
[6]
PRACTICED DIFFERENCES
While diversification may be a desirable characteristic in a
well-constructed portfolio, this leaves the question of how
much international exposure is enough. As with most
questions in finance, the answer is: it depends. This is not a
dodge, but a reflection of the fact that portfolio construction
is as much a matter of risk tolerance and constraintswhat
you will and wont invest in and to what degreeas market
views. Investor risk tolerance can determine a portfolios
composition as much, if not more, than expected returns.
If an investor is very conservative, equity exposure will be
limited no matter the geography or how attractive stocks
might be relative to bonds and cash. That said, even for more
conservative portfolios, the international equity allocation
should rarely be zero.
Looking at a few hypothetical portfolios, international equity
allocations look similar for both all-equity portfolios and
more balanced portfolios. For an all-equity portfolio, a
typical allocation to non-U.S. equitiesboth developed and
emerging marketswould be roughly 25% (see Figure 6).
Nor would the relative allocation change much within a
multi-asset class portfolio; international stocks still make up
around 25% of the overall stock allocation within a traditional
60/40 portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds).
S&P 500
S&P 500
Russell 2000
Russell
2000
Emerging
Markets
Japan
Europe
20+ Year
Treasury
Short
Treasury
International
Bonds
Gold
1.000
0.869
1.000
0.570
0.466
1.000
0.614
0.560
0.430
1.000
0.813
0.723
0.664
0.554
1.000
20+ Year
Treasury
-0.380
-0.395
-0.187
-0.289
-0.310
1.000
iBoxx
High Yield
0.633
0.539
0.534
0.323
0.620
0.044
1.000
International
Equities
0.557
0.465
0.685
0.690
0.638
-0.016
0.469
1.000
Short
Treasury
0.052
-0.010
0.014
0.110
0.118
-0.038
-0.005
0.119
1.000
-0.104
-0.044
-0.013
-0.314
0.063
0.210
0.044
-0.080
0.104
1.000
-0.119
-0.105
0.049
-0.163
0.194
0.456
0.139
0.215
0.077
0.476
1.000
0.363
0.225
0.338
0.168
0.412
-0.127
0.290
0.306
0.042
0.027
0.133
Emerging
Markets
Japan
Europe
Gold
International
Bonds
Frontier
Frontier
1.000
Source: Bloomberg, 03/15/15. Indexes referenced are: S&P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI Emerging Markets Investable, MSCI Japan, MSCI Europe Investable Market, Barclays U.S. 20+ Year
Treasury Bond, Markit iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield, Barclays U.S. Short Treasury Bond, LBMA Gold Price, S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Bond Index Ex-U.S., and MSCI Frontier 100.
50%
40
30
20
10
0
U.S. Large Cap
EAFE
60:40 Model
This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security in particular. This information is strictly for illustrative and educational
purposes and is subject to change. This information does not represent the actual current, past or future holdings or portfolio of any BlackRock client.
B L A C K R O C K [7]
28
21
14
S&P
500
Russell
2000
EM
Equities
Japanese
Equities
European
Equities
Long-Term
Treasury
High
Yield
REITs
Cash
Gold
Minimum Risk
International Frontier
Developed
Equities
Bonds
Maximum Return
Source: BlackRock MPS team. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security in particular. This information is strictly
for illustrative and educational purposes and is subject to change. This information does not represent the actual current, past or future holdings or portfolio of any BlackRock client.
E[R]
E[R]
Asset Class
0.0898
Long Treasuries
0.0184
0.1031
0.0067
Japanese Equities
0.0687
High Yield
0.0381
European Equities
0.0789
Short-term Treasuries
0.0222
0.0908
REITs
0.0809
0.1077
[8]
Currency Impact
1.46%
4.74%
7.89%
Period
MSCI EM Index
Currency Impact
8.35%
4.39%
-0.10%
26.15%
4.40%
6.16%
-2.52%
2.78%
-0.13%
5.17%
0.71%
12.42%
2.89%
Source: MSCI, as of 12/31/14. USD Index returns are for illustrative purposes only. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
BL ACK R O CK [9]
CONCLUSION
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
Albert Einstein
Simplicity has its own benefits. For most investors, a portfolio
with broad exposures and fewer moving parts is preferable.
However, too much simplicity may not be ideal either. A
portfolio that is concentrated in just one market, even a large,
diversified market such as the United States, will rarely
produce the best long-term risk/reward trade-off.
Diversification is not a magic elixir. The biggest caveat is that it
is least likely to work when most needed, i.e., during a crisis.
Instead, the benefits are derived, almost imperceptibly, over a
multi-year time frame. Long term, a well-diversified, global
portfolio can help minimize unnecessary risk. The benefits can
even accrue to more conservative investors, as some
international diversification provides for a more balanced, and
hopefully less volatile, portfolio.
While international diversification may be a sensible idea for
most investors, we believe these benefits may be even more
likely to accrue in the coming years. The United States is
expensive relative to other markets. While this has not
inhibited returns over the past couple of years, valuations
matter most over longer horizons. The United States may have
the best fundamentals, but U.S. equities have rarely posted
stellar returns from these valuation levels. In contrast,
international equity valuations are not nearly as stretched.
Finally, an all-domestic portfolio inherently underweights the
growing portion of economic activity that occurs outside of
U.S. borders. Even optimists who believe the United States will
be the dominant economy for years, if not decades, to come
have to admit that the relative footprint of the United States is
likely to decline.
B L A C K R O C K [11]
iS-15242-0415
This paper is part of a series prepared by the BlackRock Investment Institute and is
not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not
a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any
investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of March 2015 and may change
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Lit. No. MKT-PERSPECTIVE-0415