DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

VARIABLE
PHC
ANNI
EXPEDU
EXPHLTH
MFISCOUNT
NOABROWE
RSER

OBS

MEAN
21.285
5.062
2.575
2.9428
28
42139
14
3.1
6.78E+
14
07
7.46E+
14
07
14
14
13
14
14

GLP
BAMOUNT

STD.D
EV
MIN
MAX
5.5834
15.4
34.5
3.6334
1.48
15.43
0.4346
1.9
3.22
0.4166
2.24
3.67
15.65
7
58
574330
.3
1232 1595486
9.43E+ 61160 2.73E+0
07
7
8
1.02E+
2.71E+0
08
0
8

The Table above describes the outcome of descriptive statistics of the study. Here
we can see that the mean value for 421393 is maximum which is 421393.3 and
Expenditure on Education has a minimum value of mean which is 2.575385. The
Value of Standard deviation is minimum Expenditure on Health which is .4166982.
The minimum value is Borrowing Amount which is 0 while the maximum value is
No. of Active Borrowers which value is 1595486.
CORRELATION MATRIX

PHC
ANNI
EXPEDU

EXPHLTH
MFISCOUNT
NOABROWE
RSER

PHC
ANNI
1.0000
0.0637
0.8288
-0.8647
0.0001*
0.3462
0.2253
-0.6314
0.0154*
0.3506
0.2190

EXPED
U

EXPHL
TH

MFISCO
UNT

1.0000
0.1243
1.0000
0.6858
0.1149 -0.1075
0.6957
0.7266
0.0781
0.6297
0.7908 0.0211*
0.2398 -0.1606
0.4089
0.6002

1.0000
0.0335
0.9095

1.0000

0.7841
0.0009

-0.3360
0.2401

NOABROWE
RSER

GLP

BAMOU
NT

*
GLP

0.3342
0.2429

BAMOUNT

0.2253

-0.1342

0.3311

0.4387
0.2327

0.6621
-0.1536

0.2476

0.4233

0.6165

0.7967
0.0006
*

-0.3279

0.9943

0.2524

0.0000*

0.7982
0.0006
*

-0.3358

0.9961

0.2405

0.0000*

1.000
0

0.994
9
0.000
0*

Before going to further analysis it is going to obvious to check the level of

correlation between the selected set of variables; the problem of multicolinearity.
The Table above describes the correlation matrix between all the major variables
which were selected for present study analysis. From above table it can be seen
that there is no high degree of correlation between all the selected set of variables
of the study. So, we have selected all the variables for the further analysis. In order
to provide the supplementary evidence regarding correlation analysis, variance
inflation factor has also been calculated which is presented below in the table
VARIABLE

VIF

BAMOUNT
NOABROWER
SER

167.45

GLP

125.01

EXPHLTH
MFISCOUNT
EXPEDU
ANNI
MEAN VIF

176.2

5.71
3.5
2.58
1.23
68.81

1/VIF
0.0056
754
0.0059
719
0.0079
994
0.1751
313
0.2857
143
0.3875
969
0.8130
081

DATA BALANCED OR UNBALANCED

The strongly balance refer to the fact that both countries (Pakistan & Indonesia)
have data for all year (2002-2008).

1.0000

SIMPLE REGRESSION
SIMPLE REGRESSION
COEFFIC
P>|
PHC
ENT
t|
0.305291 0.01
ANNI
2
6*
0.00
EXPEDU
-8.39669
2*
0.00
EXPHLTH
9.088128
2*
0.150558 0.10
MFISCOUNT
4
*
NOABROWER
0.00
SER
2.74E-04
7*
0.26
GLP
4.11E-08
1
0.00
BAMOUNT
-2.15E-07
2*
_CONS
20.64733 0.01
The Table above describes the outcomes of Simple Regression Model analysis
for dependent variable which is (poverty head count) of (PAKISTAN &
INDONESIA).The above outcomes reveals that the coefficient values of Variable
(expedu, exphlth,mfiscount,noabrowerser & bamount ) are significant and other
variable (glp) is insignificant .
Such findings explain that the value of (expedu, exphlth,mfiscount,noabrowerser &
bamount) have a significant impact on (POVERTY HEAD COUNT)

LEAST SQUARE DUMMY VARIABLE MODEL

PHC
ANNI
EXPEDU
EXPHLTH

LSDVM
COEFFIC
ENT
0.052753
7
0.452763
1
4.72563

P>|
t|
0.86
8
0.96
2
0.41

3
MFISCOUNT
NOABROWER
SER

0.121243
3
0.000018
5

GLP

9.79E-08

BAMOUNT
_ICOUNTRY_2

-2.40E-07
11.35972

_CONS

20.65243

0.07
5
0.19
7
0.24
7
0.00
7*
0.42
6
0.01
6

The Table above describes the outcomes of LSDVM analysis for dependent variable
which is (poverty head count)of (PAKISTAN And INDONESIA).The above outcomes
reveals that the coefficient values of (bamount) is significant at 0.7% and all other
variables are insignificant i.e (anni, exphlth, expedu, mfiscount, noabrowerser,glp).
Such findings explain that only the value of (bamount) have a significant impact on
(POVERTY HEAD COUNT.)

FIXED EFFECT MODEL

FIXED EFFECT MODEL

PHC
ANNI
EXPEDU
EXPHLTH
MFISCOUNT
NOABROWER
SER
GLP
BAMOUNT
_CONS

COEFFIC P>|
ENT
t|
0.052753 0.86
7
8
0.452763 0.96
1
2
0.41
4.72563
3
0.121243 0.07
3
5
0.000018 0.19
5
7
0.24
9.79E-08
7
0.00
-2.40E-07
7*
0.12
15.40949
2

The Table above describes the outcomes of FEM analysis for dependent variable
which is (poverty head count)of (PAKISTAN & INDONESIA).The above outcomes
reveals that the coefficient values of (bamount)is significant at 0.7% and all other
variables are insignificant i.e(anni, exphlth, expedu, mfiscount, noabrowerser, glp).
Such findings explain that only the value of (bamount) have a significant impact on
(POVERTY HEAD COUNT.)

RANDOM EFFECT MODEL

RANDOM EFFECT
COEFFIC
PHC
ENT
0.305291
ANNI
2
EXPEDU

-8.39669

EXPHLTH

9.088128
0.150558
4

MFISCOUNT
NOABROWER
SER
GLP
BAMOUNT
_CONS

0.000274
4.11E-08
-2.15E-07
20.64733

P>|
t|
0.01
6*
0.00
2*
0.00
2*
0.10
*
0.00
7*
0.20
6
0.00
2*
0.01

The Table above describes the outcomes of Random Effect Model analysis for
dependent variable which is (poverty head count) of (PAKISTAN & INDONESIA).The
above outcoms reveals the the that the coefficient values of Variable (anni,expedu,
exphlth,mfiscount,noabrowerser, bamount) are significant and glp is insignificant .
Such findings explain that the value of (anni,expedu, exphlth, mfiscount,
noabrowerser, bamount) have a significant impact on (POVERTY HEAD COUNT)

HAUSMAN FIXED RANDOM

HAUSMAN FIXED RANDOM

ANNI
EXPEDU
EXPHLTH
MFISCOUNT
NOABROWE
RSER
GLP
BAMOUNT

(b)

(B)

(b-B)

Fixed

Rando
m

Differe
nce

0.30529
12

0.25253
75

0.05275
37
0.45276
31

8.39669

4.72563
0.12124
33
0.00018
5
9.79E08

9.08812
8
0.15055
8
0.00002
74
4.11E08

-2.40E07

-2.15E07

7.94392
7
4.36249
8
0.02931
5
-8.95E06
5.68E08
2.50E+
08

sqrt
(diag(V_bv_B))
S.E

0.286008
8.981031
4.941445
0.0340778
0.0000102
6.46E-08
2.93E-08

As per Hausman Fixed random, the Probability is 0.9408 which is greater than 0.05
(if the prob value is < 0.05 then accept Hi(=fixed effect) otherwise random effect .
As per our analysis, our probability value is 94.08% so we have to accept Ho which
is random effect.

COMPARISION OF PEM & REM

COMPARISION OF PRM & REM
VAR
PHC
E
U

32.68269
0.9774917
0

SD=Sqr
t (Var)
5.71687
8
0.98868
18
0

CHIBAR 2 (01) = 0.00

PROB> CHIBAR 2= 1.0000

As in the Hausman test, we accept Ho (Which is random effect), in this test we have
to select whether we have to select PEM OR REM, as THE PROBALITIY value is less
than 0.05 so we have to accept H1 (REM) Otherwise HO( Which is PEM)