Daily Markets Update

14 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Risk appetite back

Markets are back into risk seeking mode as yen and dollar weakens across the board today. In particular, EUR/JPY break this week's high of
127.44 is set to take on 127.88 resistance which EUR/USD is heading towards 1.3691 level. Commodity currencies are also firm, with USD/CAD
dipping through parity again and is heading to recent low of 0.9976. Nevertheless, New Zealand dollar is lagging behind on poor retail sales
report which showed -0.6% mom contraction in February.
Richmond Fed Lacker said overnight that he expects US economy to expand at a moderate pace for the rest of 2010 as consumer and business
spending picks up. Lacker thought that risk of a "pronounced decline in inflation" has diminished "substantially" and March's strong payroll
growth was the "most encouraging sign". Lacker also said that recent data suggests it might be "sooner rather than later" that Fed will remove
that language on the duration of low rates. Dallas Fed Fisher said there are "excess slack" from unemployment and under capacity that would
prevent inflation from building up. Fisher voted for discount rate high on March 15 but all other members were in favor of keeping discount
rate unchanged at 0.75%.
It will be a busy day in US today. March retail sales data is expected to show strong 1.1% growth with ex-auto sales up 0.5%. CPI is expect to
jump from 2.1% yoy to 2.4% yoy in March with core CPI down from 1.3% to 1.2%. Business inventories are expected to rise 0.3% in February.
A number of Fed officials will speak today, including Pianalto, Lack and Fisher while Bernanke will also testify to Congress.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 1.3641
No real change, the intraday bias is still bullish, yesterday the currency, as predicted, has tried to feel the Gap on the chart and reached 1.3546.
Technically a gap at this level, near a bottom, is a very bullish sign and this pattern was also announced by bullish divergences on RSI and
Stochastic indicators and a double bottom pattern (B1, B2). Yesterday The market got support near the long trend indicator, light green line on
the chart, now at 1.3564. Today the market may continue to feel the gap and may fall to 1.3546 minor support again or to 1.3516 the 50%
Fibonacci retracement from 1.3342 to 1.3692. But as far as 1.3490 is intact the continuation of the rally is in favor, a break of 1.3490 minor
suppot is needed to indicate that rise from 1.3282 is completed
On the upside we need to pass through 1.3692 high first to reach 1.3705 Fibonacci resistances next on a way for 1.3815. A break of this last
level will target 1.3983 the 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.3266 at 1.3983, which is close to 1.4 psychological levels, and bring down trend
resumption. Remember however that the market is in an established bearish mode, so stalk this current rally as a correction.
Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the EUR/USD's fall from 1.5143 has completed the five wave impulsive
sequence already (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3817, 1.3266) As said on my Weekly report we got bullish convergence conditions in daily chart,
on all oscillators now. Some lengthier consolidation would now be seen with risk of stronger rebound. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be
limited by 1.4217 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.3266 at 1.4205) or by the Fibonacci retracement at 1.3983 and bring fall
resumption. The overall bearish outlook remains unchanged. Technically the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 supports, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209
to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 1.0536
No real change, with the clear fall through the 1.0583 resistance and the gap on the daily chart has validated our second scenario on the
weekly report:
For memory: I don’t like the fact that we have pass through the 1.0750 cluster point and close below. Secondly, the USD/CHF had tested
the upper band of the long descending channel from 1.2296 now at 1.0783 and had been rejected by this resistance and doesn’t pass
trough. Third, the wave structure: the move from 1.0506 to 1.0750 (A) and from 1.0750 to 1.0435 (B) is perhaps a flat correction (3-3-
5) and the current move down from 1.0785 is the beginning of the C wave of the correction from 1.0897. If the market passes through
1.0621 and 1.0582 then USD/CHF will target 1.0547 support and would revive our bearishness for retest of 1.0506 minor support first
and a break of 1.0434 will turn outlook mixed.
For now the USD/CHF fall as far as 1.0506, as predicted, perhaps we are on the way for a retest of the 1.0434 level. On a break of this level the
USD/CHF may fall to 1.0319. On the up side the USD/CHF may continue to feel the gap but may be limited 1.0615 resistance first and 1.0654
secondly, the lower band of the ascending channel, the green line on the chart, and finally by 1.3643 a break of 1.0676 minor resistance is
needed to indicate that the fall from 1.0786 is completed
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, we still favor the first scenario, while the pull back from 1.0897 was deeper
than expected, the three waves corrective structure reaffirmed the view that rise from 0.9916 is still in progress. Break of 1.0897 will confirm
this case and also have USD/CHF sustain above the upper band and of the long descending channel from 1.2296 now at 1.0770, green line on
the chart. This will in turn affirm the case that correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916 and will pave the wave
for another high above 1.2296. On the downside, though, break of 1.0434 will invalidate this view and turn outlook mixed.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 1.4367
No real change, but the bias have turn neutral. The rebound from 1.4143 is perhaps still in place. But after all, we'd expect the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement from 1.4143 to 1.4846 at 1.4461 or the strong resistance near 1.4557 to limit upside. The outlook is mixed, the
consolidation might continue for a while or we have already a top in place at 1.4466 very near of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4461, and as
said previously, we expect down trend to resume sooner or later. Below 1.4310 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting
1.4143 low first. Break of 1.4143 will target 1.4 psychological level first and target 1.3869 next
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the long term picture, the current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down
trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) has confirm this case and we are heading to the61.8% projection of 1.6368 to
1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside, break of 1.4557spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 1.5396
No Change, the GBP/USD's rebound from 1.4798 is still in place but with a little loss of momentum for the up side and more side sideway
trading could be seen, a temporary top is perhaps in place at 1.5485 and intraday bias is turned neutral. However, the rise from 1.4798 is still
in favor to continue as long as 1.5151 support hold and we continue to expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783
at 1.5422 to conclude the rise from 1.4798 as well as the three wave consolidation from 1.4783 and bring down trend resumption. Below
1.5151 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5042 minor support first and will target 1.4783 low. A break
o this last level will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at
1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337). On the
upside, note that decisive break of 1.5422 Fibonacci level will suggest that stronger rebound is underway for 1.5616 first and for 1.5815
cluster resistance next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the
multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in
an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for
61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD:
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Wednesday, April the 14th, level 0.9310
The AUD/USD's retreat from 0.9380 seems to be over. The today clear of 0.9300 have flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9404
high and we got also a potential target at 0.9414 the 123.6% projection from 0.8577 to .09071 from 0.8800. But we need to break first the
lower band of the ascending channel, green line on the chart, now at 0.9337 to confirm this view. However, note that break of 0.9124 support
will argue that rise from 0.8577 might have completed and will turn focus back to 0.9000 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture: The AUD/USD is still trading well inside medium term rising channel, green
line on the chart, now at 0.9298 and rise from 0.6008 should still be in progress. The break of 0.9327 resistance affirms the view that rise from
0.8577 is resuming such rally and break of 0.9404/14 will confirm. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008
with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside,
break of 0.9000 support will, however, suggests that AUD/USD's rally might have completed prematurely and would turn focus back to 0.8802
support instead.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 93.45
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that correction from 94.68 could still extend further as long as
93.77 minor resistance holds and below 92.57 will target 61.8% retracement of 89.83 to 94.68 at 91.68 to complete the correction. On the
upside, break of 93.77 resistance will indicate that fall from 94.68 is completed and will then flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting
this high. A firm break there will confirm rally resumption towards 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the break of 93.78 high affirms the bullish case and that whole down trend
from 124.13 has completed at 84.81 already. Stronger rally should now be seen to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirmation.
On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bullish.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in weekly oscillators; the long term
down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also
break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway
pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 127.56
EUR/JPY 's break of 127.44 indicates that rise from 123.41 has resumed and flips intraday bias back to the upside for 127.88 resistance. Break
there will confirm that whole rally from 119.64 has resumed too and should target 100% projection of 121.05 to 127.88 from 123.41 at 130.24
next. On the downside, below 125.69 will indicate that consolidation from 127.88 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would
be seen first before another rally.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the choppy fall from 139.21 has completed at 119.64 after completing a head
and shoulder bottom pattern. The corrective structure of the fall from 139.21 to 119.64 in turn argues that whole rally from 2009 low of
112.10 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 134.36 resistance will further affirm this case and pave the way to a new high above 139.21.
On the downside, break of 121.05 support, however, will revive that case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 139.21 and
will pave the wave for another low below 112.10 instead.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 144.23
No change: GBP/JPY pulled back to as low as 140.94 last week, but was supported by the short term trend indicator, in blue on the chart, and
rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, as upside is limited below 144.71 resistance, more consolidations could still be seen in near term. Initial
bias remains neutral this week for more sideway trading and another fall cannot be ruled out. On the upside, break of 144.71 resistance will
confirm that whole rise from 132.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 134.53 to 144.71 from 140.94 at 147.23 next. On the
downside, a though, below 140.94 will indicate that correction from 144.71 is still underway.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, with the break of 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68
to 132.13 at 143.59) has dampened the bearish view and argue that medium term fall from 164.05 is completed with three waves down to
132.13 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that whole rise from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. Sustained trading above
61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, break
of 134.53 support is now needed to revive that case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 0.9985
USD/CAD drops further to as low as 0.9983 but is still held above 0.9976 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and sideway
consolidations might still continue. Though, break of 0.9976 will confirm fall resumption and should target the 61.8% projection of 1.0679 to
1.0062 from 1.0303 at 0.9921. On the upside, in case of another recovery, break of 1.0302 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has
bottomed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish and more declines are still in favor.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming
the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it is a part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall
from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of
1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, the Outlook for the USD/CAD remains bearish and
we will stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistances held.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading
below the long trend indicator, light green line on the chart, now at 1.0271 argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from
1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay
neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 1158.3
Gold's rise from 1085.0 is still in progress and with the break of 1163 resistance had confirmed that the consolidation from 1131.5 is finished
at 1085.0 already. The bias is neutral to mildly bullish and some side way trading or a retreat might be seen in Gold, but downside should be
contained above 1145.03 support and bring another rise. As noted before, rally from 1043.93 is still in progress and should bring the metal to
1163 resistance again and a break of this level will be followed by the 100% projection of 1043.93 to 1145.8 from 1085 at 1189 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no
doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the
long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before
the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into
a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Wednesday, April the 14th, level 84.58
Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral to mildly bullish for the moment as consolidations from 87.09 may continue or we got a bottom now
at 82.47. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 78.56 to 87.09 at 81.82 and bring
rally resumption. Above 87.09 will target 90 psychological level next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2
has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27.
Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below
78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Wednesday, April the 14th, 2010, level 10983.4
The Dow Jones is trading below the lower band of the ascending channel now at 11017.5 but yesterday broke 10973 the 123.6% Fibonacci
projection of 9789.9 to 10432.9 from 10171.4. Today our indicators are gaining steam for the upside and close above 11017.5 may bring the
DOW to 11135.9 or 11211.77. On the down side, a consolidation may find support at 10901 or at 10870 but the short term trend indicator, the
line in light blue on the chart, now at 10837.5 may hold and bring resumption of the rally. On a break of this level the DOW may fall to 10726
and as far as 10726 held now, I remain bullish for the DOW but with a stop now below 10720.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up, thus far, are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I
of Cycle wave I of this bull market. Should the current downtrend conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10%
correction, it will be labeled Major wave 4 with now up Major wave 5.With the break up10723: the move from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 of I
and the current wave is wave 5 of I: because now we may count 5 waves up on this rally and we get a first target at 10973 and perhaps to
11135.9. Remember that this Wave I: is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction
that may be profound.
Economic Calendar
Wednesday, Apr 14, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer -- 0.2%

Confidence Apr
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer -- 117.3

Confidence Index Apr
03:00 NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings -- 64.2%

Mar
06:30 JPY BoJ Governor Masaaki -- --

Shirakawa Speaks in Tokyo
Japan
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial 0.1% 1.7%

Production s.a. M/M Feb
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial 2.8% 1.4%

Production w.d.a. Y/Y Feb
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications -- -11.0%

(APR 9)
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Mar 1.1% 0.3%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Mar 0.5% 0.8%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Auto & Gas 0.6% 0.9%
Mar
12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar 0.1% 0.0%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.4% 2.1%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.2% 1.3%
12:30 USD CPI Core Index s.a. Mar -- 220.579
12:30 USD CPI n.s.a. Mar 217.714 216.741
13:30 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks -- --

in New York City
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- --

Testifies in Washington D.C.
14:00 USD Business Inventories Feb 0.3% 0.0%
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil -- 1976K

Inventories (APR 9)
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories -- -2498K

(APR 9)
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory -- 1074K

(APR 9)
15:00 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in -- --

Morgantown West Virginia
17:00 USD Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks -- --
in New York City
18:00 USD Fed Releases Beige Book -- --

Economic Report
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of -- 53.3

Manufacturing Index Mar
23:00 USD Fed's Brian Sack Speaks in -- --

New York City
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer 81 80

Confidence Mar
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks -- 50.2B

(JPY) (APR 9)
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds -- 401.7B

(JPY) (APR 9)
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks -- 540.4B

(JPY) (APR 9)
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds -- -320.2B

(JPY) (APR 9)
Thursday, Apr 15, 2010
00:30 JPY BoJ Holds Quarterly Branch -- --

Managers' Meeting in Tokyo
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation -- 3.2%

Expectation Apr
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M -- -0.9%

Feb F
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb -- 31.3%

F
04:30 JPY Capacity Utilization M/M Feb -- 3.9%

F
08:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) -- -3360

(EUR) Feb
08:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance EU -- -165.0M

(EUR) Feb
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly -- --

Report
12:30 USD Empire Manufacturing Apr 24.00 22.86
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 440K 460K

10)
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 3) 4600K 4550K
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb -- $19.1B
13:00 USD Total Net TIC Flows Feb -- -$33.4B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Mar 0.7% 0.1%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 73.3% 72.7%
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Apr 20.0 18.9
14:30 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in -- --

Charlotte North Carolina
16:15 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in -- --

New York City
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 16 15

Apr
17:40 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks -- --

in Pensacola Florida
19:00 USD Former Fed Chairman Paul -- --

Volcker Speaks in New York
City
19:15 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Holds -- --

Press Briefing in Charlotte
North Carolina
22:00 NZD REINZ House Sales Y/Y Mar -- -3.8%
22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index -- 0.4%

M/M Mar
22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index -- 3214.8

Mar
Friday, Apr 16, 2010
-- JPY Japan Cabinet Office Economic -- --

Report
01:00 USD Fed's Janet Yellen Speaks in -- --

San Francisco California
06:00 EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations -- 3.0%

Mar
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices 0.4% -0.3%

M/M Mar
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y -0.1% -1.0%

Mar
08:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) 0.3% 0.3%

M/M Mar F
08:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) 1.4% 1.4%

Y/Y Mar F
08:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M Mar F 1.5% 1.5%
08:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y Mar F 1.4% 1.4%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Mar 0.9% 0.3%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar 1.5% 1.5%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Mar 0.9% 0.8%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. 3.0B 1.8B

(EUR) Feb
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance -0.5B -8.9B

(EUR) Feb
09:05 EUR Italian Current Account (EUR) -- -5461

Feb
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments 1.0% 2.4%

M/M Feb
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M 7.0% 0.0%

Feb
12:30 USD Housing Starts Mar 610K 575K
12:30 USD Housing Starts M/M Mar 6.1% -5.9%
12:30 USD Building Permits Mar 625K 612K
12:30 USD Building Permits M/M Mar -1.9% -1.6%
13:00 USD Fed's Kevin Warsh Speaks in -- --

New York City
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr 75.0 73.6

P
17:00 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks -- --

in New York City
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject
Currencies, Futures, Commodities & Securities. No part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received
compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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14 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Risk appetite back

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer -- 0.2%

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer -- 117.3

03:00 NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings -- 64.2%

06:30 JPY BoJ Governor Masaaki -- --

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial 0.1% 1.7%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial 2.8% 1.4%

11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications -- -11.0%

12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Mar 1.1% 0.3%

12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Mar 0.5% 0.8%

12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar 0.1% 0.0%

12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.4% 2.1%

12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.1% 0.1%

12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.2% 1.3%

12:30 USD CPI Core Index s.a. Mar -- 220.579

12:30 USD CPI n.s.a. Mar 217.714 216.741

13:30 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks -- --

14:00 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- --

14:00 USD Business Inventories Feb 0.3% 0.0%

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil -- 1976K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories -- -2498K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory -- 1074K

15:00 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in -- --

17:00 USD Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks -- --

in New York City

18:00 USD Fed Releases Beige Book -- --

22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of -- 53.3

23:00 USD Fed's Brian Sack Speaks in -- --

23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer 81 80

23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks -- 50.2B

23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds -- 401.7B

23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks -- 540.4B

23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds -- -320.2B

Thursday, Apr 15, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

00:30 JPY BoJ Holds Quarterly Branch -- --

01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation -- 3.2%

04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M -- -0.9%

04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb -- 31.3%

04:30 JPY Capacity Utilization M/M Feb -- 3.9%

08:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) -- -3360

08:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance EU -- -165.0M

08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly -- --

12:30 USD Empire Manufacturing Apr 24.00 22.86

12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 440K 460K

12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 3) 4600K 4550K

13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb -- $19.1B

13:00 USD Total Net TIC Flows Feb -- -$33.4B

13:15 USD Industrial Production Mar 0.7% 0.1%

13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 73.3% 72.7%

14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Apr 20.0 18.9

14:30 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in -- --

16:15 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in -- --

17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 16 15

17:40 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks -- --

19:00 USD Former Fed Chairman Paul -- --

19:15 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Holds -- --

22:00 NZD REINZ House Sales Y/Y Mar -- -3.8%