Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Global Warming
DEFINITION OF GLOBAL WARMING
SPEEDING UP THE PROCESS
GROWING EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
ANOMALIES AND REFUTATIONS
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
INADEQUATE ACTION AND NEEDED TRANSFORMATIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Understanding the causes of and responses to global warming requires interdisciplinary cooperation
between social and natural scientists. The theory behind global warming has been understood by
climatologists since at least the 1980s, but only in the new millennium, with an apparent tipping point in
2005, has the mounting empirical evidence convinced most doubters, politicians, and the general public
as well as growing sections of business that global warming caused by human action is occurring.
return could come within ten years, and that the world needs to cut emissions by 50 percent by mid
twenty-first century.
It was natural scientists who first discovered and raised global warming as a political problem. This
makes many of the global warming concerns unique.Science becomes the author of issues that
dominate the political agenda and become the sources of political conflict (Stehr 2001, p. 85). Perhaps
for this reason, many social scientists, particularly sociologists, wary of trusting the truth claims of
natural science but knowing themselves lacking the expertise to judge their validity, have avoided
saying much about global warming and its possible consequences. Even sociologists such as Ulrich
Beck and Anthony Giddens, who see risk as a key attribute of advanced modernity, have said little
about climate change.
For practical purposes, it can no longer be assumed that nature is a stable, well understood, background
constant and thus social scientists do not need direct knowledge about its changes. Any discussion of
likely social, economic, and political futures will have to heed what natural scientists say about the
likely impacts of climate change.
In 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations scientific panel on
climate change, had predicted that Antarctica would not contribute significantly to sea level rise this
century. The massive west Antarctic ice sheet was assumed to be stable. However, in June 2005 a
British Antarctic survey reported measurements of the glaciers on this ice sheet shrinking. In October
2005 glaciologists reported that the edges of the Antarctic ice sheets were crumbling at an
unprecedented rate and, in one area, glaciers were discharging ice three times faster than a decade
earlier.
In 2005 an eight-year European study drilling Antarctic ice cores to measure the past composition of the
atmosphere reported that CO2 levels were at least 30 percent higher than at any time in the last 65,000
years. The speed of the rise in CO2 was unprecedented, from 280 parts per million (ppm) before the
Industrial Revolution to 388 ppm in 2006. Early in 2007 the Norwegian Polar Institute reported
acceleration to a new level of 390 ppm. In January 2006 a British Antarctic survey, analyzing CO 2 in
crevasse ice in the Antarctic Peninsula, found levels of CO 2 higher than at any time in the previous
800,000 years.
In April 2005 a NASA Goddard Institute oceanic study reported that the earth was holding on to more
solar energy than it was emitting into space. The Institutes director said: This energy imbalance is
the smoking gun that we have been looking for (Columbia 2005).
The second IPCC report in 1996 had predicted a maximum temperature rise of 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit
by the end of the twenty-first century. The third report, in 2001, predicted a maximum rise of 5.8
degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the twenty-first century. In October 2006 Austrian glaciologists
reported in Geophysical Research Letters (Kaser et al.) that almost all the worlds glaciers had been
shrinking since the 1940s, and the shrinking rate had increased since 2001. None of the glaciers
(contrary to skeptics) was growing. Melting glaciers could pose threats to the water supply of major
South American cities and is already manifest in the appearance of many new lakes in Bhutan.
In January 2007 global average land and sea temperatures were the highest ever recorded for this
month; in February 2007 the IPCC Fourth Report, expressing greater certainty and worse fears than the
previous one, made headlines around the world. In 1995 few scientists believed the effects of global
warming were already manifest, but by 2005 few scientists doubted it and in 2007 few politicians were
willing to appear skeptical.
Although rising temperatures; melting tundra, ice and glaciers; droughts; extreme storms; stressed coral
reefs; changing geographical range of plants, animals, and diseases; and sinking atolls may conceivably
all be results of many temporary climate variations, their cumulative impact is hard to refute.
The science of global warming has progressed through tackling anomalies cited by skeptics. Critics of
global warming made attempts to discredit the methodology of climatologist Michael Manns
famous Hockey stick graph (first published in Nature in 1998). Manns graph showed average global
temperatures over the last 1,000 years, with little variation for the first 900 and a sharp rise in the last
century. After more than a dozen replication studies, some using different statistical techniques and
different combinations of proxy records (indirect measures of past temperatures such as ice cores or tree
rings), Manns results were vindicated. A report in 2006 by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences,
National Research Council, supported much of Manns image of global warming history. There is
sufficient evidence from the tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers and other proxies of past surface
temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the twentieth century
were warmer than any comparable period for the last 400 years. For periods before 1600, the 2006
report found there was not enough reliable data to be sure but the committee found the Mann teams
conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the twentieth century was unprecedented over the
last 1,000 years to be plausible (National Academy of Science press release 2006).
Measurements from satellites and balloons in the lower troposphere have until recently indicated
cooling, which contradicted measurements from the surface and the upper troposphere. In August 2005
a publication in Science of the findings of three independent studies described their measurements
asnails in the coffin of the skeptics case. These showed that faulty data, which failed to allow for
satellite drift, lay behind the apparent anomaly.
Another anomaly was that observed temperature rises were in fact less than the modelling of
CO2 impacts predicted. This is now explained by evidence on the temporary masking properties of
aerosols, from rising pollution and a cyclical upward swing of volcanic eruptions since 1960.
Critics of global warming have been disarmed and discredited. Media investigations and social research
have increasingly highlighted the industry funding of skeptics and their think tanks, and the political
pressures on government scientists to keep silent. Estimates of the catastrophic costs of action on
emissions have also been contradicted most dramatically by the British Stern Report in October 2006.
Many companies have been abandoning the skeptical business coalitions. The Australian Business
Round Table on Climate Change estimated in 2005 that the cost to gross domestic product of strong
early action would be minimal and would create jobs.
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
In May 2001 sixteen of the worlds national academies of science issued a statement, confirming that
the IPCC should be seen as the worlds most reliable source of scientific information on climate change,
endorsing its conclusions and stating that doubts about the conclusions were not justified.
In July 2005 the heads of eleven influential national science academies (from Brazil, Canada, China,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) wrote to the
G8 leaders warning that global climate change was a clear and increasing threat and that they must
act immediately. They outlined strong and long-term evidence from direct measurements of rising
surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in
average global sea levels, retreating glaciers and changes to many physical and biological
systems (Joint Science Academies Statement 2005).
There are many unknowns regarding global warming, particularly those dependent on human choices;
yet the consequences for society of either inadequate action or of any effective responses (through
reduced consumption or enforced and subsidized technological change) will be huge. It is, for example,
unlikely that the practices and values of free markets, individualism, diversity, and choice will not be
significantly modified either by economic and political breakdowns or alternatively by the radical
measures needed to preempt them.
(where some evade their share of the cost of collective goods from which they benefit). Gains in auto
efficiency in the 1980s, for example, were rapidly reversed by a new fashion for sport utility vehicles.
The debates that have emerged in the early twenty-first century have been related to responses, with
different winners and losers, costs, benefits, dangers, and time scales for each response. Advocates of
reduced energy consumption or increased efficiency, or energy generation by solar, wind, tidal, hydro,
biomass, geothermal, nuclear, or clean coal and geo-sequestration, argue often cacophonously. Yet it
seems probable that all these options are needed.
It will be essential for social and natural scientists to learn to cooperate in understanding and
preempting the potentially catastrophic collision of nature and society. In order to accomplish this,
market mechanisms; technological innovation; international, national, and local regulations; and
cultural change will all be needed. Agents of change include governments, nongovernmental
organizations, and public opinion, but the most likely front-runner might be sectors of capital seeking
profit by retooling the energy and transport systems, while able to mobilize political enforcement.
SEE ALSO Disaster Management; Greenhouse Effects; Science
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Columbia University Earth Institute. 2005. Press release 28,
April.http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2005/story04-28-05.html.
Cooper, Richard N., and Richard Layard. 2002. What the Future Holds: Insights from Social Science.
Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
Diamond, Jared. 2005. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive. Camberwell, U.K.: Penguin,
Allen Lane.
Dunlap, Riley H., Frederick H. Buttel, Peter H. Dickens, and August Gijswijt, eds. 2002, Sociological
Theory and the Environment: Classical Foundations, Contemporary Insights, Lanham, MD: Rowman
and Littlefield.
Flannery, Tim. 2006. The Weather Makers. Berkeley, CA: Grove Atlantic.
Kaser, G., et al. Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps: Consensus Estimates for 1961
2004. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33. 2006.
Legget, Jeremy. 2000. The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era. New York:
Routledge.
Leggett, Jeremy. 2005. Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis. London: Portobello.
Monbiot, George. 2006. Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning. London: Allen Lane.
National Academy of Sciences. 2006. Press release 22,
June.http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=11676.
Stehr, Nico. 2001. Economy and Ecology in an Era of Knowledge-Base Economies. Current
Sociology 49(1) January: 6790.
Zillman, John W. 2005. Uncertainty in the Science of Climate Change. InUncertainty and Climate
Change: The Challenge for Policy, Policy Paper 3. Canberra: Academy of the Social Sciences in
Australia.http://www.assa.edu.au/publications/op/op22005.pdf.
Constance Lever-Tracy
warming would be delayed because the oceans would absorb most of the carbon dioxide. Arrhenius
further posited various societal benefits from this planetary warming.
estimates would prove consistent with more sophisticated models refined in the two decades following.
A 1979 National Research Council report by Jule G. Charney, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A
Scientific Assessment, declared that "we now have incontrovertible evidence that the atmosphere is
indeed changing and that we ourselves contribute to that change. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide are steadily increasing, and these changes are linked with man's use of fossil fuels and
exploitation of the land" (p. vii). The Charney report estimated a doubling of atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations would probably result in a roughly 3-degree Celsius rise in temperature, plus or
minus 1.5 degrees.
testified to Congress that he was 99 percent certain that the earth was getting warmer because of the
greenhouse effect. While the testimony brought significant new political attention in the United States
to the global warming problem, many of Hansen's scientific colleagues were dismayed by his definitive
assertions. Meanwhile, a small number of skeptical scientists who emphasized the un-certainty of global
warming and the need to delay policy initiatives fueled opposition to political action.
In 1988, delegates from nearly fifty nations met in Toronto and Geneva to address the climate change
problem. The delegates formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), consisting of
more than two thousand scientists from around the world, to assess systematically global warming
science and policy options. The IPCC issued its first report in 1990, followed by second and third
assessments in 1995 and 2001. Each IPCC report provided increasingly precise predictions of future
warming and the regional impacts of climate change. Meanwhile, books like Bill McKibben'sThe End
of Nature (1989) and Senator Albert Gore Jr.'s Earth in the Balance(1992) focused popular attention in
the United States on global warming.
Yet these developments did not prompt U.S. government action. With its major industries highly
dependent on fossil fuel consumption, the United States instead helped block steps to combat climate
change at several international conferences in the late 1980s and 1990s. At the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, U.S. negotiators successfully
thwarted a treaty with mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the Rio conference
adopted only voluntary limits. In 1993, the new administration of Bill Clinton and Albert Gore Jr.
committed itself to returning United States emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The
administration also attempted to adjust incentives for energy consumption in its 1993 energy tax bill.
Defeated on the tax bill and cowed when Republicans gained control of Congress in 1994, however, the
Clinton administration backed away from significant new energy and climate initiatives.
At the highly charged 1997 United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Kyoto, Japan, more than
160 countries approved a protocol that would reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and three chlorofluorocarbon substitutes. In the United States, powerful industry opponents to
the Kyoto Protocol, represented by the Global Climate Coalition (an industry association including
Exxon, Mobil, Shell Oil, Ford, and General Motors, as well as other automobile, mining, steel, and
chemical companies), denounced the protocol's "unrealistic targets and timetables" and argued instead
for voluntary action and further research. Along with other opponents, the coalition spent millions of
dollars on television ads criticizing the agreement, focusing on possible emissions exemptions for
developing nations. Although the Clinton administration signed the Kyoto Protocol, strong Senate
opposition to the agreement prevented ratification. In 2001, President George W. Bush withdrew his
executive support for the protocol.
Causes
Gases such as water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide allow short-wave radiation from the sun to
pass through to the surface of the earth, but do not allow long-wave radiation reflected from the earth to
travel back out into space. This naturally occurring insulation processdubbed the greenhouse
LEADING COAL-BURNING STATES FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION IN THE UNITED
STATES
rank
state use
(million tons)
source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Energy. Electric Power Annual 2000 , vol. 1. Available
from http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epav1.
1
texas
99.7
indiana
59.5
ohio
55.9
pennsylvania
52.1
illinois
46.6
kentucky
40.2
missouri
37.3
west virginia
37.0
alabama
35.6
10
michigan
33.7
11
georgia
33.5
12
north carolina
29.9
13
florida
29.9
14
wyoming
26.5
15
tennessee
26.1
16
north dakota
25.1
other states
322.4
total
990.966
effectkeeps the earth warm: In its absence, the earth would be about 33C cooler than it is now.
However, as the concentration of greenhouse gases increases (due largely to human activities), most
scientists agree that the effect is expected to intensify, raising average global temperatures.
However, the earth's climate is known to vary on long timescales. The existence of naturally occurring
ice ages and warm periods in the distant past demonstrates that natural factors such as solar variability,
volcanic activity, and fluctuations in greenhouse gases play important roles in regulating the earth's
climate. A minority of scientists believe that purely natural variations in these factors can account for
the observed global warming.
Climate forecasts are inherently imprecise largely because of two different sorts of uncertainty:
incomplete knowledge about how the system worksunderstandable for a system governed by
processes the spatial scales of which range from the molecular to the global and uncertainty about how
important climate factors will evolve in the future. A variety of factors affect temperature near the
surface of the earth, including variability in solar output, volcanic activity, and dust and other aerosols,
in addition to concentrations of greenhouse gases.
However, this uncertainty does not stop one from making some broad statements about (1) the
likelihood of the sources of observed global warming and (2) the likely effects of continued warming.
In the first case, attempts by climate modelers to reproduce the observed global near-surface
temperature record using only natural variability in climate models have proved inadequate. The Third
Assessment Report (2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes some
80 percent of recent rises in global temperature to human activities, with other important contributions
coming from volcanic and solar sources. Over the coming century, likely effects of continued warming
include higher daily maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days over most land areas, fewer
frosts in winter, fewer cold days over most land areas, a reduced daily range of temperatures, more
extreme precipitation events (all very likely), increased risk of drought, increases in cyclone peak wind,
and precipitation intensity (likely). Other effects, such as the disintegration of Antarctic ice sheets, carry
potentially enormous implications, but are considered very unlikely.
In the wake of the general increase in the awareness of environmental issues in the Western world since
the 1970s, global warming has become an important political issue in the last decade. Following the
successful implementation of the Montral Protocol (1987) that prohibited the production of ozonedepleting gases (i.e., chlorofluorocarbons [CFCs], halons, and carbon tetrachloride) starting in 2000, the
international community sought to address the problem of global warming in the Kyoto Protocol
(1992). This involves industrialized countries taking the lead on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The
protocol requires them to decrease their emissions to 90 percent of their 1990 levels. The Kyoto
Protocol comes into effect if fifty-five parties to the convention ratify the protocol, with "annex 1" (or
industrialized) parties accounting for 55 percent of that group's carbon dioxide emissions in 1990.
This approach has proved controversial for a variety of reasons: (1) It applies primarily to industrialized
countries, freeing some of the world's worst polluters, such as China and Saudi Arabia, from having to
comply; (2) the reductions are arbitrarily fixed at 10 percent of a country's 1990 level, irrespective of
whether that country is a big polluter, like the United States, or a relatively small polluter, like Sweden;
(3) disagreements about whether the cuts imposed by the treaty will actually be worth the economic
costs; (4) the treaty targets only gross emissions rather than net emissionsduring the negotiations key
differences emerged between a group of nations that favored the use of man-made forests as "carbon
sinks" planted to soak up carbon emissions, and countries that believed this to be an inadequate
response.
Although the Kyoto Protocol has been enthusiastically backed by European countries, various wealthy
countries remain outside the treaty, most notablyAustralia and the United States. The U.S. decision to
not sign the Kyoto Protocol has proved particularly controversial, as the United States emits some 23
percent of global greenhouse emissions, while only containing 5 percent of the global population. The
current Bush administration does not intend to ratify the agreement on the grounds "that the protocol is
not sound policy," according to U.S. Undersecretary of State Paula Dobriansky.
see also Carbon Dioxide; CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons); Greenhouse Gases; Halon; Methane (CH4);
NOx (Nitrogen Oxides); Ozone; Treaties and Conferences.
degrees). This finding supports the theory that the Earth is presently in a period of global warming. The
questions important to scientists and policymakers are the extent, period, and cause of the warming.
ppbv
353,000
60
1700 15
310
1050
CFC-11
0.28
CFC-12
0.48
O3
Carbon Dioxide.
The carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere varies over time. Carbon dioxide is both natural and
human-made, and has increased by 25 percent in the last 125 years. Human industrial activities,
especially since the Industrial Revolution , have increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere. The
increase is evident in the following figure, which shows atmospheric CO 2 in parts per million (ppm) at
three locations: South Pole (red circle); Siple, Antarctica (blue square); and Mauna Loa, Hawaii (green
square).
The burning of fossil fuels , such as oil, coal and natural gases, are sources of energy that release carbon
dioxide. Carbon dioxide uptake by plants during photosynthesis, and release by animals during
respiration also influences the amount of atmospheric CO 2.
There are more land plants in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere simply
because there is more land north of the equator. Each year during Northern summers, plants absorb
more carbon dioxide than is produced. When the growing season ends in the Northern Hemisphere, the
carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere resumes the increase that results from the burning of fossil
fuels. The seasonal influence of land plants is obvious in the following diagram, which shows
atmospheric CO2 in parts per million (ppm) for Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Because carbon dioxide is 30 times more soluble in water than are most common gases, the ocean
contains most of the carbon dioxide in the oceanatmosphere system. The phytoplankton living in the
surface layers of the world's oceans convert CO 2 into plant tissue, and in some cases use CO 2to build
calcium carbonate (CaCO3) shells. As organisms die, their remains deposit on the ocean floor, along
with other debris, burying calcium carbonate and organic carbon in sea-floor sediments. The ocean
therefore performs as a giant sink for carbon dioxide, absorbing the gas and removing it from the
atmosphere while depositing much if it as marine sediments.
Paleoclimatology
To understand how the present-day global climate compares to past climates, scientists have had to look
beyond the limited 140 years of weather data and examine the Earth's paleoclimate. Paleoclimate is a
term used to describe the ancient climate long before instruments were developed. Instead of
instrumental measurements of weather and climate, paleoclimatologists use natural environmental
(proxy) records to estimate past climate conditions.
Research methods involve analyzing sediment core samples from the ocean floor and ice cores from the
polar ice packs.* Some of the things being sought are fossil plankton , plant pollen, and preserved
insects that are locked in ocean sediments, and chemical and isotopic data from sediments and polar
ice. By dating the samples and identifying species and abundance, researchers can reconstruct the
general climate of a region during its geologic past. For example, globally averaged temperatures and
the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in parts per million (ppm) over the past 160,000 years have been
estimated as follows.
The paleoclimatic record not only allows scientists to examine global temperature fluctuations over the
last several centuries, but it also reveals past climate change even farther back in time. This perspective
is an important tool used to help understand the possible causes of the present-day global warming.
the thermohaline circulation of the ocean would be altered, and could further accelerate global
warming. Computer models of climate change are undergoing continual refinement in an effort to
decrease the uncertainty of these predictions.
see also Algal Blooms in the Ocean; Carbon Dioxide in the Ocean and Atmosphere; Climate and the
Ocean; El Nio and La Nia; Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Climate Change; Global Warming and Glaciers;
Global Warming and the Hydrologic Cycle; Global Warming: Policy-making; Ice at Sea; Ice Cores and
Ancient Climatic Conditions; Ocean Biogeochemistry; Ocean Currents; Ocean-Floor Sediments;
Oceans, Polar; Sea Level; Sea Water, Physics and Chemistry Of.
Biochemistry
Biographies
Chemistry
Mathematics
Physics
Technology
Environmental Studies
http://www.encyclopedia.com/ssc/106890environmental-studies.html
air pollution
biodiversity
biosphere
chaparral
DDT
defoliant
detergent
ecology
endangered species
environmentalism
eutrophication
fisheries
food chain
forest
global warming
greenhouse effect
Greenpeace
heath
insecticides
jungle
Kyoto Protocol
land use
nitrogen cycle
noise pollution
nuclear winter
oasis
ozone layer
pollution
radioactive waste
recycling
savanna
septic tank
sewerage
Sierra Club
smog
smoke
solid waste
swamp
timberline
tropics
tundra
water pollution
water supply
wetlands
whaling
wilderness
Beekeeping
Biomes
Conservation biology
Fungicides
Ecosystems
Herbicides
Pesticides
Gravitropism
Thermal pollution
Biosphere II Project
Bioaccumulation
Succession
Rain forests
Nuclear Waste
Niche
marsh
Waste
Sanitation
Garbage
climax community
null
cesspool
Wildlife Preservation
refuse
Earth Summit
Ecologist
parathion
Toxic Waste
biocide
aldrin
ozonosphere
biological diversity
dieldrin
trapping
International Organizations
U.S. Government
United Nations
Philosophy
http://www.encyclopedia.com/sc/107184philosophy.html
Philosophy: Biographies
Ancient Religions
Christianity
Eastern Religions
Islam
Judaism
Philosophy
The Bible
Biographies
Geography
Amaravati
Awami League
Delhi Sultanate
Fatehpur Sikri
gaur
Harappa
Hindustan
Indian Mutiny
India-Pakistan Wars
Magadha
Mughal
Muslim League
Opium Wars
Sikh Wars
Thugs
Vijayanagar
Gandhara
Mogul
Congress Party
Sarnath
Kosala