Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 2011, volume 38, pages 486 ^ 504

doi:10.1068/b35148

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning

support
Peter A Johnson, Renee E Sieber

Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal,

Quebec H3A 2K6, Canada; e-mail: peter.johnson2@mail.mcgill.ca, renee.sieber@mcgill.ca
Received 15 December 2008; in revised form 2 July 2010

Abstract. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computer simulation approach that can be used to
represent real-world systems and create planning scenarios to examine possible future outcomes of
present-day decisions. This approach can be applied in tourism planning, where destinations are
exposed to a variety of externalities, and must develop strategies to adapt to changing operational
conditions. We describe the development of TourSim, an ABM of tourism dynamics set in the
Canadian province of Nova Scotia. We present an overview of the data sources and techniques used
to inform agent behavior and the destination landscape, as well as consider aspects of system
representation and validation and how these may affect the use of TourSim. TourSim is used to
generate three scenarios of tourism dynamics; a base-case scenario, one that simulates the effect of
a decrease in visitation from American markets as a result of economic crisis, and the use
of advertising as a response to this lower level of visitation. These scenarios are used to evaluate
ABM in comparison with other computer-based methods of modeling tourism, namely geographic
information systems and system dynamics models.

1 Introduction
Recent global economic and political events have impacted the tourism industry
throughout the world. Fuel price fluctuations, new security regulations, the highly
seasonal nature of tourism, and an increasingly competitive landscape are only a few
of the uncertainties that affect tourist arrivals (Baggio, 2008; Farrell and TwiningWard, 2004; Russell and Faulkner, 1999). These impacts are difficult to predict, as
some destinations may benefit from shifts in visitor markets whereas neighboring
ones struggle to adapt. Strategies such as advertising to raise awareness, new product
development, and improved transportation linkages can be employed, each with their
own positive and negative trade-offs.
Key to the development of a tourism industry more resilient to these global impacts
are methods that can better represent how the processes that form tourism unfold
across time and space. One computer modeling method that can capture and analyze
these aspects of tourism is agent-based modeling (ABM) (Bonabeau, 2002; Grimm and
Railsback, 2005; Zellner, 2008). ABM represents system components as individuals, or
`agents' that interact upon a spatially referenced landscape. Rather than focus on the
outcomes of the tourism phenomenon, such as bed nights sold or aggregate expenditures, ABM facilitates the study of the processes that create a given system (Epstein
and Axtell, 1996; Parker et al, 2003). By modeling the processes of tourism, such as
how individuals and destinations interact to form patterns of impact, planners and
researchers can identify points in a system where planning actions can be best applied.
For tourism planning, an ABM can then be used to develop and experiment with
different strategies, comparing their impact throughout a system, rather than at a fixed
sample location or aggregate scale.
In this study we have two main goals: the first being to describe the development of
TourSim, an ABM of tourism dynamics. TourSim is used to examine the impact of a
decline in visitation from the American market on destinations within the Canadian

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province of Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia occupies a unique geographic position in North
America, located at the furthest eastern mainland point. This remoteness is a source of
tourism product but also imposes a transportation premium compared with competing
destinations such as Maine, New England, and Prince Edward Island, all located
closer to major tourist markets. These factors expose the Nova Scotia tourism industry
to fluctuations in visitation from the United States. This issue of exposure has broad
implications for tourism development, making this case study a relevant example for
tourism planners operating in many locations. The second goal is to place ABM within
the range of existing computer approaches used to model tourism, identifying the
degree to which each approach can be used to represent the process-based nature of
tourism and ultimately assess the potential of ABM as it can be used to capture
dynamics of interest to tourism academics and planners.
2 Computer-based methods for modeling tourism
A better understanding of the processes of tourism and how changes to those processes
impact the formation of travel patterns can be developed through the use of new
computer-based modeling approaches. The following section compares approaches to
modeling tourism that have some ability to represent processes and are applied within
tourism studies. We focus on computer-based modeling approaches that can be used to
facilitate the systematic testing of structural and behavioral relationships among tourism components, both in space and over time. Three approaches are investigated:
geographic information systems (GIS), system dynamics (SD) models, and ABM.
GIS is increasingly used to study many types of spatial phenomenon and has been
applied and critiqued within many planning environments. SD models and ABM are
less widely known approaches; however, early research has pointed to several advantages when used in a tourism context. Though these latter two approaches show
potential, their use in tourism is still not fully explored. In the following subsections
a literature review gives an overview of each of three modeling approaches, indicating
the degree to which each is currently used to represent how tourism patterns and
impacts are formed.
2.1 GIS applications in tourism

GIS can be defined in a narrow sense as a computerized system used to facilitate the
collection, storage, retrieval, analysis, and distribution of spatial information (Chrisman,
2002). Bahaire and Elliot-White (1999) present an overview of GIS application areas
within tourism; creating an inventory of resources, identifying ideal areas for development, the identification and monitoring of tourism indicators over time, integrating
social and environmental datasets, and providing decision support to planning.
Despite this wide range of possible application areas, there are few examples of
tourism GIS applications that consider how patterns and impacts are formed. Rather,
much research focuses on the visualization of tourist travel patterns. These travel
patterns are based on individual-level data collected with global positioning system
units, radio frequency identification tags (Bishop and Gimblett, 2000; Shoval and
Isaacson, 2007), or time diaries and other survey instruments (Becken, 2005; Connell
and Page, 2008; Van der Knaap, 1999).
Connell and Page (2008) use GIS to create visitor itinerary maps collected with a
post-trip mail survey to identify routes taken and stops made through a national park
in Scotland. This study results in a visualization of the quantity and directionality of
tourist flows and stopping points. GIS is used in this study as a visualization tool the
temporal representation of tourist movement is minimal, and the resulting static
map analysis shows aggregate quantities of flows over the total study time period.

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These flows are compared with previous studies in an attempt to construct a typology
of different tourist-route patterns, including the identification of main gateways into
the national park area and stopping points that had potential to become congested
during peak visitation times. This study represents a typical use of GIS in tourism
research, focusing on visualization of quantities of tourists (McAdam, 1999; Stewart
et al, 2008), as opposed to analysis of how these patterns are formed or changed.
This type of study cannot extrapolate these patterns over an altered destination
landscape or represent patterns generated by new tourism marketing trends. The
continually shifting nature of tourism precludes the ability to consider a small sample
of tourist travel patterns to be both accurate and durable over time and across various
conditions. The popularity of some destinations grows rapidly and for others it declines
due to a confluence of factors that are not often represented in a tourist trip diary.
These externalities are included only through the way in which they may have influenced the travel patterns of the sample and cannot be independently identified or
manipulated. This makes the use of GIS in this manner adequate as a visualization
of a limited series of patterns over a certain time period, but inappropriate to examine
the underlying variables that influence tourist pattern generation.
2.2 System dynamics models in tourism

SD models, also called `stock and flow' models, are a comparatively new modeling
approach used within tourism studies. SD models conceptualize system components
as a series of stocks (a container that holds a quantity of a variable), connected to
a number of flows that lead both into and out of the stock, modifying its value.
The tourism futures simulator (TFS) is one of the most developed applications of
SD tourism. It is a platform used to develop tourism scenarios that facilitate communitybased planning (Walker et al, 2005). The TFS uses data collected by community members
to parameterize stocks that represent tourism components, such as money spent on
destination marketing, numbers of tourists at an attraction, and tourist expenditures.
This modeling approach is inherently temporal, as components interact according to
a system clock that controls the timing of actions (Peterson, 2000). Though recent
studies exploring the use of SD models in tourism show potential in examining
the function of tourism components, two issues constrain this application. First,
SD models are commonly aspatial. The lack of a spatial component to the representation of tourism ignores one of the key aspects of tourism as a phenomenon. Second,
SD models typically represent entities as homogeneous stocks, where individual behavior is masked or aggregated. When considering the wide range of tourist behavior and
destination characteristics, removing this aspect from a model provides an incomplete
representation.
2.3 ABM in tourism

ABM is an emerging modeling approach with potential within tourism research and
planning (Baggio, 2008). Within an ABM, system components are represented as
individuals, or agents, that interact upon a landscape. ABM can be used to model
systems characterized by interacting processes and individual behaviors over time and
space (Epstein and Axtell, 1996; Parker et al, 2003). These individual agents are
assigned general rules that govern their behavior and interactions, using data sources
such as sample surveys, laboratory experiments, GIS or remotely sensed data, participant observation, and companion modeling (Robinson et al, 2007). Though a popular
approach for modeling systems such as urban development (Waddell, 2002), use of
water resources (Zellner, 2007), retail markets (Heppenstall et al, 2006), and recreation behavior (Gimblett and Skov-Petersen, 2008), there has to date been little use of

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support

489

ABM within tourism or tourism planning, despite its benefits in representing system
processes and interactions over time and space.
There are several benefits from using an ABM to represent the processes and
interactions of the tourism phenomenon. In creating a tourism ABM, tourist agents
can be parameterized with behaviors to govern activity or accommodation preference,
as well as spatial characteristics, such as travel distance. Tourist destinations can also
be implemented as agents, expressing behaviors such as price setting, product development, and advertising. These interactions between destination and tourist can play
out upon a georeferenced landscape, with space as an explicit variable. An ABM can
also include a variety of temporal behaviors, allowing each component to operate at a
different time scale. This means that a tourist may be modeled as spending two days at
a certain destination, but this can comprise one leg of a longer total trip. Destinations
may also make decisions on the basis of monthly or yearly feedback about tourist
arrival numbers. In this way, time is a function of each object, rather than a global
time present throughout the entire simulation. This use of object-dependent time allows
ABM to reflect more accurately the dynamic interactions of tourism. Considering
these factors, ABM has particular relevance to representing the characteristics of
tourism, as it facilitates the representation of individual-level spatiotemporal interactions that have the potential to generate system-level effects. In the following sections
we focus on testing the application of ABM to tourism.
3 Development of TourSim
TourSim takes a traditional supply ^ demand approach to conceptualizing tourism,
where tourist agents move across a landscape of destinations, attempting to satisfy
their accommodation and activity preferences. The landscape used in TourSim is
spatially referenced and representative of Nova Scotia, with destinations populated by
types of accommodation and activity. Tourist agents possess characteristics, such as
preference for accommodations, activities, length of stay, and maximum daily travel
distance. These characteristics are drawn from a direct survey of tourists and the manner
in which tourist agents are able to meet their preferences in negotiation with the supply
available at each destination determines the pattern of their visitation within TourSim.
The following subsections provide details on the construction of TourSim.
3.1 The destination landscape

TourSim represents thirty five of the most commonly visited tourist destinations in
Nova Scotia as fixed georeferenced points (figure 1). These are a variety of locations,
from small towns to major cities, and are selected using major groupings of tourist
accommodations drawn from an annual inventory of tourism businesses collected by
the Nova Scotia Department of Tourism, Culture, and Heritage (NSDTCH) (http://
www.gov.ns.ca/tch/pubs/insights/), research division. Each destination is parameterized
with accommodation and activity types, on the basis of data from the provincial
tourism website listing of businesses (http://novascotia.com). There are data aggregated
to correspond with categories identified in the Canadian Travel Survey (CTS) and the
International Travel Survey (ITS), two multiyear tourism surveys conducted by Statistics
Canada (http://ww.statcan.gc.ca/) also used to parameterize tourist-agent behaviors.
Table 1 shows a listing of select destinations with the accommodation and activity
categories at each, presented in a binary presence or nonpresence (absence) format.
Using two different scales of data created challenges in parameterizing the model.
Destination data were at the individual level, representing a specific accommodation
activity. Tourist data were recorded not for a specific accommodation or activity (eg
the Art Gallery of Nova Scotia), but rather aggregated into the seven accommodation

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Figure 1. Map of destinations and regions in Nova Scotia, Canada.

and twenty-two activity types listed in table 1. As such, destination amenities are
aggregated into the same range of categories. One implication of this approach is
that TourSim treats accommodation and activity types as being identical between
destinations, recording only the presence or nonpresence of each. Though this limits
the richness included for each destination, the alternative would require a subjective
assessment of the quality or attractiveness of an amenity. In the absence of a measure
of these, we kept all accommodations and activities on an equal playing field, in that a
hotel at one destination is equal to one at another destination, although this is not the
case in reality.
In addition to accommodation and activity characteristics, each destination is
assigned an `awareness' value to represent the relative position of the destination in
the minds of tourists. This adds realism to the interaction between destination and
tourist, simulating how tourists make decisions with imperfect information, conferring
a competitive advantage to better-known destinations. The awareness function assigns a
value from 0 to 100 to each destination, where those with lower values are less
well known compared with those with higher values. These values are based on the
2004 Nova Scotia Visitor Exit Survey (http://www.tourismvc.com/research/nstat.html),
a survey that recorded the percentage of all tourists to the province who stopped
at that destination. These percentages were translated directly into awareness values.

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support

491

Table 1. Destination accommodation and activity categories: Y present; 0 not present.

Category

Destination
Baddeck

Canso

Halifax

Shelburne

Windsor Wolfville

Accommodation
Hotel
Motel
Bed and breakfast
Resort or lodge
Camping
With friends or relatives
Cottage

0
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y

0
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
0

Y
Y
Y
0
0
Y
Y

Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y

0
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
0

Y
0
Y
0
Y
Y
Y

Activity
Convention
Visit friends or relatives
Shopping
Sightseeing
Festival or fair
Cultural event
Museum or gallery
Historic site
Zoo
Sports event
Bar or nightclub
Casino
Theme park
National park
Sports or outdoor activities
Golfing
Fishing or hunting
Boating or swimming
Walking or hiking
Cruise or excursion
Bird or wildlife viewing
Cycling

0
Y
Y
Y
0
0
Y
Y
0
0
0
0
0
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y

0
Y
0
Y
0
0
Y
Y
0
0
0
0
0
Y
0
0
0
Y
Y
0
0
0

Y
Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y

0
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Y
0
Y
Y
0
0
0

0
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Y
0
0
0

Y
Y
Y
Y
0
Y
Y
Y
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Y
0
0
0
0

For example, if 10% of tourists stopped at a real-life destination, the destination in the
model was assigned the value 10. This awareness function mediates the frequency with
which the tourist agent considers each destination, a process described in greater derail
later in this section.
3.2 Tourist agent behaviors

TourSim contains three types of tourist agents based on their home market: domestic;
American; and international. Each type of tourist agent is informed with preferences
for accommodation, activity, maximum travel distance, and length of stay, according to
data drawn from the CTS and ITS. Table 2 shows the accommodation and activity
categories that each tourist agent can prefer and the percentage of each tourist type
that chose each accommodation and activity. For example, 14% of domestic tourists
stay in hotels, compared with 50% of international tourists. These values are used in
the agent decision-making process as a main driver of tourist visitation. Length of stay
is an important tourist-agent behavioral characteristic included in TourSim. Figure 2
shows the range of length of stay assigned to each tourist type. The distance that a
tourist agent is willing to travel per day is the final tourist-agent characteristic.
Figure 3 shows the distance traveled by tourists as recorded by domestic tourists. As
distance-traveled data were not collected for American and international tourists,

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Table 2. Tourist accommodation and activity profiles as percentages.

Market

Category

domestic

American

international

Accommodation
Hotel
Motel
Bed and breakfast
Resort or lodge
Camping
With friends or relatives
Cottage

14
6
1
1
10
58
10

33
39
8
0
14
0
7

50
19
14
0
12
0
5

Activity
Convention
Visit friends or relatives
Shopping
Sightseeing
Festival or fair
Cultural event
Museum or gallery
Historic site
Zoo
Sports event
Bar or nightclub
Casino
Theme park
National park
Sports or outdoor activities
Golfing
Fishing or hunting
Boating or swimming
Walking or hiking
Cruise or excursion
Bird or wildlife viewing
Cycling

4
28
16
12
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
6
9
1
1
3
3
1
0
0

0
6
15
16
2
4
11
14
3
1
4
3
1
11
5
1
1
2
0
0
0
0

0
10
15
14
3
3
9
11
3
1
6
2
2
9
6
1
1
3
0
0
0
0

50
Domestic
Percentage of sample

40
International
American

30

20

10

11

16
21
26
31
Tourist length of stay (days)

Figure 2. Tourist length of stay.

36

41

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493

100

91

Percentile of sample

81

71

61

51

41

31

21

11

490

980

1470

1960

2450

Distance per day (km)

Figure 3. Tourist distance traveled per day.

the domestic tourist-distance value was assigned to all tourist categories. This can be
considered to represent the majority of travel around the province of Nova Scotia, with
over 90% of trips being of less than 500 km.
3.3 Tourist-agent decision making

For a tourist agent to visit a destination, a matching is required between preferences

and potential destination using data from the CTS and ITS. Each day of model time,
tourist agents of each type are added to the model at a seasonally variable monthly
rate drawn from data collected by the NSDTCH. Tourist agents enter Nova Scotia via
one of seven airport, highway, and ferry access points. Model time proceeds in hours,
with each tourist agent evaluating destinations and moving daily when a match is found.
This decision making occurs asynchronously throughout a 24-hour period, with all agents
currently active in the model making a movement decision within that time frame.
Tourist-agent decision making is processed according to a flow chart controlled
by a heuristic decision-making strategy. The sequence of rules is outlined in figure 4.
Once a tourist agent is introduced, it selects one of the thirty-five destinations to
evaluate at random. This ensures that tourist agents do not evaluate destinations in
a consistent order, thus avoiding conferring an advantage to certain destinations.
The next step is to assess the awareness level of the candidate destination. For example,
the provincial capital of Halifax, being a major tourist destination, has a higher

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Tourist agent enters simulation

Assigned to a port of entry

Select a random destination

not aware
Check awareness

is aware

unsuccessful
advertise

outside range

Evaluate activity and

accommodation
Successful
Increase awareness
Evaluate distance to travel

continues
less than 30%?

within range

Visit destination

Destination occupancy

Check length of stay

finished

Tourist agent leaves simulation

Figure 4. Tourist-agent decision-making flowchart.

awareness value than a tertiary destination and therefore the majority of tourist
agents who randomly select Halifax will continue to evaluate it for a preference match.
The remainder of the time, tourist agents will select another destination to evaluate,
first for awareness.
Once a tourist agent has successfully passed through the awareness check, it
then evaluates the candidate destination for a match between accommodation and
activity preferences and the local supply of tourist amenities. Following Berger
and Schreinemachers (2006), we use a Monte Carlo method of assigning behaviors

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support

495

to a population of agents using a set of survey data. Using this method, tourist agents
are assigned preferences by drawing a random number from 0 to 100, which corresponds to a specific accommodation and activity preference (see table 2). If a match
under both categories is found, the tourist agent then evaluates the distance required to
travel from its current location to the candidate destination. If this distance is less than
a daily distance threshold, the tourist agent makes a successful trip. This decisionmaking process continues within a loop, with many thousands of actions occurring
every day of model time. As model time progresses, a tourist agent will accumulate a
predetermined number of successful matches, spread out over a number of simulated
days. When this number of visits is reached the tourist agent is removed from the
model, representing the completion of its trip.
3.4 TourSim operational interface

TourSim was developed with an Internet application component where scenarios can
be run in a web browser. Scenarios are preset and key variables in the simulation can be
altered to compare multiple model runs. The TourSim interface consists of a setup
screen and a runtime screen. The setup screen (figure 5) presents a description of the
simulation, a set of blank charts where results are later added, and a range of useradjustable variables depicted as slider bars. These variables include the rate of tourism
growth and options for viewing results for a specific tourist destination. Once the user
has set the variables, the model can be run. This launches the runtime screen and
begins the advancement of model time from 1 January. The runtime screen (figure 6)
show a map of Nova Scotia with tourist travel routes. These routes thicken according
to the number of tourist agents who travel on that route, giving a visual indication of
tourist travel patterns. Continuously updating charts track the values of total and per
day visitation. If the user has selected to view results for one destination, pie charts
show the accommodation and activity choices selected by tourist agents for that
destination. Once TourSim ends, data are added to the blank charts on the setup
screen. The user can now alter any of the variables and rerun the model. The results
of this second run are added to the setup screen (figure 7), facilitating comparison of
the model runs.

Figure 5. TourSim setup screen.

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Figure 6. TourSim runtime screen.

Figure 7. TourSim setup screen with results.

3.5 Verification and validation

The degrees to which a model functions as intended and behaves in a similar fashion
to the real-world target system are important considerations in the ABM development
process. These evaluations serve as a type of `reality check' on the model and have
two main components, verification and validation. Verification determines whether
model elements function as expected, in that there are no errors in specification.
Verification can be achieved through testing procedures including code reviews, comparative visual tests, and spot checks of code sections (Gilbert and Troitzsch, 2005;
Grimm and Railsback, 2005; Parker et al, 2003). To verify TourSim we ran the model

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497

first with a minimum number of agents (10 in total). We configured TourSim to report
the output at each point within the tourist decision-making process, ensuring that, for
example, a tourist agent that had visited the destination of Halifax had actually been
randomly assigned to that destination and possessed the correct preferences. Next, we
forced tourist agents to follow certain behaviors, testing if model output would match.
We decreased the tourist length of stay value to 1, representing a maximum trip length
of one day. This had the effect of preventing tourist agents from visiting more than one
destination before leaving the model. Using counters within the model we observed
that the number of agents entering corresponded with the sum of the number of visits
to each destination and the number of agents exiting. We also experimented with
`turning off ' various aspects of TourSim, altering agent preference and destination supply
to force all tourist agents to visit one destination, and placing a destination beyond
all possible distance thresholds. In each case, TourSim demonstrated the expected
outcome, confirming that the tourist-agent decision making and destination interactions
function correctly.
The second step in our test of TourSim was validation given the model goals and
balanced by the need for simplicity in model building (Crooks et al, 2008; Rykiel,
1996). Validation can take several forms, such as statistical or predictive analysis
between modeled and independent data, and historical reconstruction of known events
(Rykiel, 1996). For models that are more exploratory, validation methods such as
pattern matching with independent data (Bankes et al, 2002) or qualitative checking
with experts can be employed (Becu et al, 2003; David et al, 2005). As discussed by
Parker et al (2003), ABMs are made to address different goals, ranging from explanatory, or `proof of concept' theoretical models, to more highly detailed and descriptive
for use in policy environments. TourSim falls in between these two types; it moves
beyond a purely theoretical model by incorporating real-world data to parameterize
agent and landscape; however, it does not address a sufficiently wide range of tourism
dynamics and processes to enable predictive use. Following a number of authors
(Janssen and Ostrom, 2006; Rykiel, 1996), we validate our model to a qualitative level.
Our intent for TourSim is not a predictive model, but a framework to support the
exploration of tourism dynamics.
To validate TourSim, we compare modeled results with two independent datasets
provided by the NSDTCH, one of provincial and regional tourist visitation and
one of destination occupancy. At the provincial scale we compare total visitation
levels generated by TourSim with 2007 actual visitation (table 3). At this aggregate
scale TourSim overpredicts the total number of tourists by approximately 5%.
Table 3. Comparison of modeled with actual data for regional scale validation.
Region

Modeled
visitation

Actual
visitation
in 2007

Percentage
difference

Annapolis Valley
Cape Breton
Eastern Shore
Fundy Shore
Halifax/Dartmouth
Northumberland Shore
South Shore

228 780
639 300
30 080
97 780
1 161 905
345 425
164 215

273 000
410 000
22 000
140 000
1 307 000
190 000
199 000

16
56
37
30
11
82
17

Total

2 667 485

2 541 000

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Breaking this down to a regional level shows differences in visitation range from
an underprediction of 11% at the major destination of Halifax/Dartmouth, to a
substantial overprediction of 82% for the Northumberland Shore region. Several
aspects of the model structure and source-data reporting method call into question
the appropriateness of this regional comparison. In TourSim we define only the
thirty-five most visited locations in Nova Scotia and these are represented as discrete
points. To determine regional visitation, destinations are grouped according to the
regional divisions shown in the NSDTCH data. This results in a situation where
destination visitation may not be counted in the correct region, but rather attributed
to another destination or neighboring region.
A more detailed, destination-level validation compares TourSim visitation data
with a 2007 occupancy survey of all fixed-roof accommodations, grouped into destinations. This survey is limited in that it does not include campground accommodations
(ie not fixed-roof ) and tourists who stayed with friends and family, negating direct
comparison between the number of modeled tourist visits and the number of rooms
sold. To overcome this limitation, we compare the share of tourist visits that each
destination receives as a percentage of the total provincial visitation in both the
modeled TourSim scenarios and the occupancy survey. Using this destination-level
comparison, a similar distribution between modeled and real data is evident (table 4).
One notable exception is the major tourist destination of Halifax, which TourSim
underpredicts by 12.8%. This is an issue of both the scale of data collection and the
coding of destinations within TourSim. Halifax is often considered to comprise a very
large regional municipality that includes many smaller towns and villages, some of
which are represented in TourSim, or grouped with other nearby destinations.
Table 4. Destination-level validation.
Destination

Modeled
provincial
visit share
(% of total)

Actual visitation
share in 2007
(% of total)

Percentage
difference a

Amherst
Antigonish
Baddeck
Canso
Cheticamp
Dartmouth
Digby
Halifax
Ingonish
Louisbourg
Lunenburg
New Glasgow
North Sydney
Sheet Harbour
Sydney
Truro
Windsor
Wolfville
Yarmouth

1.6
7.3
5.2
0.4
2.2
7.8
2.9
34.8
3.6
1.3
2.1
2.2
2.0
0.5
6.5
4.2
0.7
0.9
2.7

2.0
3.2
2.8
0.2
1.2
10.7
1.8
47.6
1.7
0.7
1.5
2.7
2.7
0.7
6.6
3.7
0.4
0.8
2.4

0.4
4.1
2.4
0.2
1.0
2.8
1.2
12.8
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.3

a Variations

in percentage differences from reported to actual due to rounding.

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support

499

4 Scenario comparison results

To demonstrate the use of TourSim to model tourism dynamics, we develop three
scenarios to investigate the effects at the destination level of a downturn in visitation
from American markets and the use of advertising as an adaptation strategy. This issue
is of interest to tourism planners and businesses within Nova Scotia and also has
implications for any destination facing issues such as the effects of new border passport
requirements, rising gasoline prices, economic upheaval, and currency-exchange fluctuations. The first scenario uses averaged tourist arrival numbers for 2000 ^ 07 and
holds growth from all three markets (American, international, and domestic) constant,
creating a base case for comparison. For the second scenario, the number of American
tourists entering Nova Scotia declines at a rate of 10% per year. The third scenario
examines the impact of advertising as a way to compensate for this reduction in visitation.
This is represented by increasing the awareness value of destinations in response to low
levels of tourist occupancy. Occupancy is calculated as the number of tourists visiting
the destination, compared with a total seasonally adjusted supply of accommodation.
Every month that a destination experiences less than a 30% level of occupancy, it
increases in awareness by a value of 1, to a maximum of 100, representing the efforts
of destinations to advertise. This 30% cutoff was chosen after consulting the NSDTCH
2007 occupancy survey, which shows that the majority of regions have a greater than
30% average annual occupancy rate.
Six destinations were selected for this comparison: Baddeck, a major rural tourism
location and the centre of the Cape Breton Island tourism region; the remote village of
Canso; the mid-sized regional tourism locations of Shelburne, Wolfville, and Windsor;
and Halifax, the provincial capital. Halifax has the largest and most diverse supply of
tourism accommodation and activity in the province, with Baddeck and Wolfville
possessing an average range of amenity, whereas Shelburne, Windsor, and Canso
contain a limited and seasonal range. These locations were chosen as representative
of the main types of destinations in Nova Scotia. We chose to run each scenario for
five simulated years, as this allowed visitation patterns to develop and is similar in
length to a typical tourism planning time horizon. Each scenario is repeated twenty
times with results averaged to account for randomness in the model structure.
4.1 Change in number of American visitors

The 10% decline in American visitation represents a reallocation of tourists within the
province, in that for one destination to show gains, losses must occur elsewhere.
Destinations have a level of exposure to the American market based on their available
accommodation and activity options, distance to ports of entry, and spatial relationship with other destinations. These factors combine to create an emergent pattern of
visitation. The effect of the decline in American tourism can be seen in the results of the
base-case scenario (table 5). Note how the impact of this decline varies by destination,
indicating that reliance on American visitation is a product of the range of accommodation and activity choices at a destination and how this matches (or does not
match) with the preference of American tourists. If a destination is overly reliant on
a specific tourist market, a small change in arrivals can create a large impact. The
implications of this finding for tourism planning is that destinations concerned about
changes in the American market must consider multiple factors of location, product
range, and neighboring destinations when developing a response.
We now adjust a microlevel characteristic of the destinationstheir awareness
valuesto simulate the impact of advertising. By raising the awareness values of destinations with low levels of occupancy, tourists may consider these locations more frequently.

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Table 5. Comparing the percentage change in destination visitation under different scenarios.
Destination

Baddeck
Canso
Halifax
Shelburne
Windsor
Wolfville

Percentage change in visitation

10% loss
scenario

advertising
scenario

2
4
1
4
2
3

5
26
5
59
9
11

Awareness
increase (%)

0
30
0
50
23
0

This does not guarantee that a tourist agent will visit a particular destination, but
simply increases the likelihood that it considers it as a destination. Within this
advertising scenario there are several variables that have been altered, affecting the
way in which patterns emerge. First, there are fewer American tourist agents entering
the simulation. This lowers visitation to destinations favored by Americans, potentially
triggering advertising. Second, destinations can increase their level of awareness in
response to low levels of occupancy. And finally, tourist agents now have an altered
landscape of awareness upon which to make their decisions. The changes made in this
scenario demonstrate the experimental questions that can be framed using an ABM
approachquestions of complex interactions that take place on a shifting landscape
populated by heterogeneous individuals.
The results of the advertising strategy show how destinations can raise awareness
as a response to a decline in American visitation. As in the base case, the impacts of
changes to the system create effects that vary between destinations. Shelburne (59%)
and Canso (26%), two comparably unknown destinations, advertise and see a dramatic
benefit. Three locations did not need to advertise to maintain a greater than 30% level
of occupancy: Baddeck (5%), Halifax (5%) and Wolfville (11%). Baddeck and
Halifax show losses in visitation, attributable to increased competition driven by the
rise in awareness of other destinations. The case of Wolfville shows surprising behavior,
in that, although it did not advertise, it saw an increase in visitation. This is further
complicated by the fact that the neighboring destination of Windsor advertised and
saw an increase of 9% in visitation. The advertising at Windsor is potentially generating the spin-off visitation seen in nearby Wolfville. This scenario comparison shows
that in terms of how TourSim models visitation, increasing awareness has a positive
effect in driving more visitation to both the destination that advertised, but also to
neighboring destinations.
5 Discussion
The purpose of this research is twofold: first to examine the impacts of a decline in
American-market visitation to the Canadian province of Nova Scotia, through the use
of TourSim, an ABM of tourism dynamics, and second, to place ABM as an approach
within others used in tourism. We present the results of the case study, including
insights into the dynamics of destination adaptation and competition, and the implications this holds for tourism planning in Nova Scotia. We also discuss the development
and use of TourSim itself, identifying how ABM can be used to represent the processes
that form tourism and the limitations and benefits of this approach compared with
other tourism-modeling approaches.

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5.1 Nova Scotia case study

The Nova Scotia case study examines the characteristic of destination awareness and
its role in increasing destination visitation as a response to a downturn from the
American-tourist market. By observing how the pattern of tourist visitation varies in
response to changes in destination awareness, we can develop a better understanding of
the dynamics of destination competition. This was tested for destinations that met the
criteria of low levels of occupancy and awareness. Though each destination that raised
its level of awareness showed an increase in visitation, other destinations that did not
increase awareness also showed increased visitation. This was an unexpected finding,
indicating that a type of spillover effect exists, based on the spatial location of destinations that advertise to those that did not. This increased awareness at the destination
level brought more tourists into the region, showing the effect of interacting variables
that influence the use of advertising as an adaptive strategy within a competitive tourism
environment.
That the spatial relationship of destinations within a geographic area can influence the competitive dynamics between them has particular relevance to tourism
planning within Nova Scotia and for other tourism destinations throughout the world.
For community-based planners, the spatial relationship of a given destination with
other destinations may suggest development options that look to link together nearby
destinations, pooling advertising resources for mutual benefit. This effect is also
relevant for regional planners, who must consider issues such as regional brand identity,
product development, and also the way in which tourists move through a region and
between destinations. The directionality and flow of tourists of different types from
destination to destination and the ways in which these can be either harnessed for
modified to increase benefit are both areas of interest to regional and communitybased planners. For provincial-level tourism planning within Nova Scotia, this type
of study is one that can be extended to examine the position of Nova Scotia within
national and international competition. As a travel destination that imposes a transportation premium for tourists from major North American markets, travel to Nova
Scotia is sensitive to the distance between destination and tourist-generating location.
Further research into how Nova Scotia fits within these larger networks could yield
valuable results on the influence of distance on destination visitation.
5.2 ABM as a way to model tourism

Through the development of TourSim, we have identified areas of advantage and

constraint to the use of ABM for modeling tourism, compared with GIS and SD
modeling approaches. TourSim has facilitated a process-oriented view of tourism,
allowing the identification and representation of the individual-level spatial and
temporal behaviors of tourists and how these interact upon a destination landscape.
This approach has helped to identify how the spatial relationship between destinations
is a factor in the use of advertising as an adaptation to shifts in tourist visitation.
Our experiences developing and testing TourSim further define the ways in which
ABM can be used to realize a process-based representation of tourism. This is particularly relevant when compared with other computer-based approaches, notably GIS
and SD models that each fail to some degree in the representation of the temporal and
spatial aspects that form the processes of tourism. Parker et al (2003), indicate that the
process-orientated nature of ABM allows it to represent the underlying processes and
dynamics that form a given system. Implicit in this process orientation are the interactions of components within time and space. These attributes of ABM are clear when
comparing TourSim with GIS models of tourism, where TourSim represents the process
as it unfolds through time as opposed to historical reconstructions of static time slices.

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P A Johnson, R E Sieber

Though GIS models of tourism provide excellent representation of the spatial aspects
of tourism, both in distribution of destinations and flow patterns of tourists, there is
currently no use of GIS to represent the processes of tourism as they unfold over time.
Though both process orientation and temporal characteristics are found in SD
models of tourism, the aggregation of individual behaviors into simple stocks and
flows avoids representation of the variety of individual tourist behaviors and the
correspondingly diverse supply of tourism products. By modeling at an aggregate level,
the diversity of tourist behaviors and preferences no longer has an impact on their
travel patterns. Differentiation in spatial characteristics and interactions cannot be
captured and modeled adequately using this approach, reducing opportunities for
observing and experimenting with the fullest range of possible dynamics and scenarios
(North and Macal, 2007). Compared with SD models, ABM as evidenced through this
implementation of TourSim can show the individual-based processes as they change
over time and through space.
When comparing these three approaches it is clear that GIS and SD models do not
support the same type of process-based approach as ABM. Both GIS and SD models
omit a key variabletime in the case of GIS and space in the case of SD model. As
tourism is a spatial process, the inclusion of these characteristics is essential in any
model. Indeed the results derived in the Nova Scotia case study would not have been
possible with either GIS or SD models. Comparably, ABM is an approach that can
represent the spatial, temporal, and process-based nature of tourism, as evidenced
through our development of TourSim. In the representation of tourism, this presents
a new and potentially valuable approach to understanding the phenomenon and is a
research direction with potential to generate further insight into the functioning of
tourism.
Despite the strengths of using ABM to represent tourism, there are several constraints in the development and use of ABM. This research emphasizes the importance
of validation as a check on the appropriateness of ABM as a representation of a system.
In particular, the degree of model validation is related to the modeling goals, with a
planning support model requiring a more stringent degree of validation than a proof of
concept model. We used two independent datasets to validate TourSim. The different
data-collection methodologies and tourist-destination-area definitions used in the validation data made direct comparisons with modeled data difficult. As a result, there
are some inconsistencies between the two, particularly when comparing modeled
data with destination-level validation data. The sourcing of data for validating an
ABM is a significant issue. For ABMs requiring high levels of validation it may be more
appropriate to gather primary validation data rather than rely on secondary datasets.
6 Conclusions
Tourism is a type of economic and social phenomenon that is uniquely exposed to
forces and externalities. Recent global economic and geopolitical issues have served
to impact the viability of tourism in many parts of the globe. For tourism researchers
and planners looking to better understand the nature and generation of tourism
patterns and impacts the investigation of ABM as an approach can uncover advantages
in the representation of spatial and temporal characteristics of tourism. ABM provides
significant benefits compared with traditional tourism models and approaches, namely
GIS and SD models.
Future areas of refinement of TourSim must focus on the sourcing of improved
datasets for parameterizing tourist and destination data. Recent work on the tracking
of individual tourists (Shoval, 2007; Shoval and Isaacson, 2007) can be used as a
source of data for agent parameters, though the scaling up of these data to a provincial

An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support

503

level remains problematic. Traditional methods of data collection such as trip diaries
provide a valuable source of microlevel data on tourist behavior, but the time-consuming
nature of collecting even a limited dataset makes this an inappropriate source of data
for parameterizing a model of a broad range of tourist behavior. It is possible that, in
the future, user-generated content provided via travel-review websites and drawn from
tourist-supplied `digital traces' can be used to inform an ABM, though this remains an
underdeveloped research area (Girardin et al, 2008; Johnson et al, 2011).
This research also has implications for the use of computer models within tourism
research and planning. Of significant importance in the future development of TourSim
is the evaluation of its use from the perspective of tourism planners themselves. This
evaluation must focus on issues of suitability to planning task and weigh benefits and
constraints of adoption. In the development of planning-related technologies, these
considerations are essential to ensuring that such tools are appropriate to the niche
that they intend to serve (Vonk et al, 2005; Zellner, 2008). Currently the penetration of
ABM within tourism planning is limited, though with increased development of casestudy examples the profile of this technology is improving. ABM, though emerging,
should be considered to have both academic and applied value as a way to represent
how tourism processes, operating under various scenarios, generate patterns of impacts
in ways that are not adequately addressed by traditional methods.
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