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20/9/2014

The geopolitics of cybersecurity

The geopolitics of cybersecurity


BY IAN BREMMER

y Ian Bremmer and David Gordon

Individual hackers and organized crime organizations have targeted businesses


for years, but cyberattacks have rarely created political risk. They do now. The
centralization of data networks -- both in energy distribution (the move to the
smart grid) and information technology more broadly (the shift to cloud
computing) -- is increasing the vulnerability of states to potentially debilitating
cyberattacks. As governments become more directly and actively involved in
cyberspace, geopolitics and cybersecurity will collide in three major ways.
First, new cyber capacity allows governments to project power in a world where
direct military strikes are much more costly and dangerous. There have been
plenty of stories about well-funded efforts from inside China to manipulate access
to the Internet, but it's the almost-certainly state-sponsored Stuxnet attacks on
Iran's industrial infrastructure that provide the clearest early glimpse of what
tomorrow's carefully targeted state-sponsored attack might look like. When a
missile is launched, everyone knows where it came from. Cyberattacks are a very
different story.
Second, we'll see more cyber conflicts between state-owned companies and
multinational corporations, providing state capitalists with tools that give them a
competitive commercial advantage. China and Chinese companies are by far the
biggest concern here. Throw in Beijing's indigenous innovation plans, which are

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20/9/2014

The geopolitics of cybersecurity

designed to ensure that China develops its own advanced technology, and this is
probably the world's most important source of direct conflict between states and
corporations.
Third, there is the increasing fallout from the WikiLeaks problem, as those
sympathetic to Julian Assange unleash attacks on governments and the
corporations that support them in targeting WikiLeaks and its founder. In fact, the
principal cybersecurity concern of governments has shifted from potential attacks
by al Qaeda or Chinese security forces to radicalized info -- anarchists undertaking
a debilitating attack against critical infrastructure, a key government agency, or a
pillar of the financial system. Whether attacks are waged for power (state versus
state), profit (particularly among state capitalists), or for 'the people,' (as in the
WikiLeaks case), this will be a wildcard to watch in 2011.
On Friday, we'll talk about Top Risk no. 4: China -- and why its policymakers will
frustrate much of the international community this year.
Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group. David Gordon is the firm's head of
research.
JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

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