9

Economic Analysis

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9. Economic Analysis
9.1

General Requirements
The main task of the Economic Analysis has been to elaborate the differences
in between the different investigated options. Therefore such analysis does
neither cover commercial tariff / off-take aspects nor the impact of the
individual options on the general ADWEA Generation and System
Expansion Planning.
Following general parameter have been used for the economic analysis:
Discount rate (real, on top of inflation): 8%
Exchange rate:
1 AED = 0.2723 US$
Operating time:
25 a
Construction period:
3a
Fuel price natural gas:
6.63 AED/MBTU based on 2007
Fuel price LFO:
14.7 US$/GJ
Escalation fuel price:
1.34%/a
Escalation OPEX:
3%/a
Potable water costs:
14.16 AED/1,000 gallons
Use of LFO instead of natural gas could be required, due to shortage of gas
supply in future. The thermal energy and power supplied to the desalination
plant has been considered. All costs are referred to first year of operation
(2010), based on given escalation rate. The technical key data of each option
are summarized in following table.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Summary Technical Data

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Site Location

Solar Rankine Cycle

Ref-CC

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

RC

RC

RC

RC

Al Mirfa

Madinat Zayed

Latitude

deg

24.1

23.6

Longitude

deg

-53.4

-53.7

Solar Irradiation (DNI)

kWh/m2/a

Ambient Temperature (min; avg; max)

Number of collector assemblies

Net aperture area for one collector
Total net aperture area of solar collectors
Capacity of Thermal Storage

Solar Heat to Power Block

Gas turbine capacity (at average site temperature)
Steam turbine capacity (max temp, max solar heat)
Net capacity (46C, max solar heat)
Net Electric Energy of Plant
Electricity to MSF

solar

960

628

960

628

960

628

960

628

818

818

818

818

818

818

818

818

1000m2

785

513

785

513

785

513

785

513

MWh

300

145.4

300

300

778

513

778

513

MWe

2 x 155

2 x 155

2 x 155

2 x 155

2 x 155

MWe

2 x 145

2 x 145

2 x 145

2 x 145

2 x 145

MWe

250

250

215

215

MWe

467
3424
145

467
3424
145

502
3220
145

502
3128
145

3569
3371
198
6483

3569
3469
101
6679

3366
3089
277
5916

GWhe/a

Evaluated Net Electric Energy

Exergetic Fossil Generation (GWh/a)
Exergetic Solar Generation (GWh/a)
Annual gas consumption

2190
11; 28; 46

m2

GWh/a (th)

Gas turbine capacity (at ISO)

2157
11; 28; 46

GWhe/a
GWhe/a
GWhe/a
GWhe/a
GWh/a-LCV

791

523

791

523

138

108

110

158

158

402
2948
145

87
260

89
171

132
367

128
231

3273
3095
178
5928

3093
3093

260

171

260
0

171
0

367
120
248
240

231
70
161
140

52%

Ratio electric to fossil fuel

55%

53%

57%

55%

Exergetic Solar Share

5.6%

2.8%

8.2%

5.4%

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

kt/CO2/a

83

42

116

mln t/CO2

2.1

1.1

2.9

Specific CO2 emission of comparable generation

0.42 kgCO2/kWhe

Annual CO2 emission reduction

Total CO2 emission reduction

in years

25

300

5925

n.a

n.a.

153%

165%

100%

100%

66%

68%

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

75

109

72

104

68

1.9

2.7

1.8

2.6

1.7

0.42

Table 9-1: Technical Key Data of Options

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9-1

9.2

Investigation of CAPEX
For the CAPEX estimation the actual situation of the market (including
current bids) has been considered. The current market shows that higher
costs for mechanical equipment have to be considered, especially for gas
turbines. Also costs for the solar part have increased considerably during last
months as experienced in recent offers.
The corresponding cost estimates of CAPEX are shown in following tables.
ISCC/CC

Cost Estimate CAPEX (EPC Contract)

Civil and Structural

mln $

Solar field preparation and other solar field civil work

Solar collector pylon foundations
General civil and infrastructure and
Power Block and BOP structures

Solar Field

mln $

Heat collection elements (HCE)

Reflectors
Metal support structures
Drives, electronic and controls
HTF interconnecting piping ( between collectors)
HTF header piping
HTF fluid (initial filling)
Transport, erection and commissioning

Thermal Storage System

mln $

Storage Device incl pumping, transport and commissioning

HTF System incl. Solar Heat Exchangers

mln $

HTF heat exchangers and tanks

HTF pumps
Transport, erection and commissioning

Power Block

mln $

Gas turbine generators

Steam turbine generators
Cooling System incl. Condenser
HRSG incl. burners
Fuel gas system inkl. back up
BOP
Waste water treatment
Fire protection
Electrical + I&C
Transport, Erection & commissioning

Total Equipment Cost

mln $

Solar Rankine Cycle

V1a
ISCC

V1b
ISCC

V2a
ISCC

V2b
ISCC

Ref-CC

V3a
RC

V3b
RC

V4a
RC

V4b
RC

25

21

26

22

5
7

3
5

5
7

3
5

13

16

12

17

13

5
7

3
5

5
7

3
5

14

14

14

14

251

171

251

40
55
78
9
6
8
10
45

27
38
53
6
4
6
7
30

40
55
78
9
6
8
10
45

171

251

171

251

171

27
38
53
6
4
6
7
30

40
55
78
9
6
8
10
45

27
38
53
6
4
6
7
30

40
55
78
9
6
8
10
45

27
38
53
6
4
6
7
30

13

22

22

22

22

22

22

22
22

35

24

35

24

35

24

35

24

19
10
6

13
7
4

19
10
6

13
7
4

19
10
6

13
7
4

19
10
6

13
7
4

210

210

221

221

200

46

46

61

61

85
18
10
37
6
13
0
2
25
14

85
18
10
37
6
13
0
2
25
14

85
20
10
45
6
13
0
2
27
14

85
20
10
45
6
13
0
2
27
14

85
15
9
32
8
12
0
2
24
14

14
15

14
15

19
19

19
19

4
0
2
7
4

4
0
2
7
4

2
4
0
2
10
5

2
4
0
2
10
5

544

427

555

439

213

370

253

386

270

Table 9-2: CAPEX Estimation (Details)

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Cost Estimate CAPEX (Summary)

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC
21
171

ISCC
22
171

24
210

ISCC
26
251
22
35
221

24
221

Solar Rankine Cycle

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

RC
12
171
24
46

RC
17
251
22
35
61

RC
13
171

200

RC
16
251
22
35
46

Civil and Structural

Solar Field
Thermal Storage System
HTF System incl. Solar Heat Exchangers
Power Block

mln $
mln $
mln $
mln $
mln $

ISCC
25
251
22
35
210

Ref-CC
13

Total Equipment Cost

mln $

544

427

555

439

213

370

253

386

270

27
29
0

21
22
0

28
29
0

22
23
0

11
11
0

19
19
0

13
13
0

19
20
0

13
14
0

599

470

612

483

235

408

279

426

297

24
61

incl. Freight, insurance, transport, erection, testing and

commissioning

Contractor's (Interface) Engineering

Contingencies (incl. physical and price)
Other additions to Cost estimate

5%
5%
0%

EPC-contract
Owners Cost (Incl. Site Preparation, Consulting
Service during Implementation)

Investment (Total Installed Cost)

mln $
5%

mln $

mln $

30

24

31

24

12

20

14

21

15

629

494

643

508

246

429

293

447

312

Table 9-3: CAPEX Estimation (Summary)

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9-2

In comparison to the reference combined cycle power plant, following

additional investment for an ISCC has to be noted:
without storage 247 to 261 Mil. US$
with storage
383 to 397 Mil. US$

9.3

Investigation of OPEX
The opex estimation has been based on actual values for solar field cost for
O&M as well as typical values for the fossil part of the power plant.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Cost Estimate OPEX

Fixed O&M Cost (incl. Insurance)

Fixed Cost Power Plant
Fixed Cost Solar Field
Variable Cost
Net Electricity Output

V1b

V2a

V2b

GWh/a

ISCC
9.0
4.5
4.5
2.5
3569

ISCC
7.6
4.5
3.1
2.5
3569

ISCC
9.2
4.7
4.5
2.5
3366

ISCC
7.8
4.7
3.1
2.5
3273

m$/a

17.9

16.5

17.6

16.0

12.0

5.7

4.2

6.0

4.5

3.0%
5.02

3.5%
4.62

2.9%
5.24

3.3%
4.88

5.1%
3.88

1.4%
21.71

1.5%
24.41

1.4%
16.41

1.5%
19.58

mln$/a

2.0%
1.8%
2.5

O&M Cost (excl. fuel)

Total O&M Cost in % of EPC Contract
Variable and fixed cost expressed per kWhCost

Solar Rankine Cycle

V1a

mln$/a
mln$/a
$/MWh

$/MWh

Ref-CC
4.3
4.3
2.5
3093

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

RC
5.5
1.0
4.5
0.5
260

RC
4.1
1.0
3.1
0.5
171

RC
5.8
1.3
4.5
0.5
367

RC
4.4
1.3
3.1
0.5
231

Table 9-4: OPEX Estimation

9.4

Analysis for avoided CO2

The amount of avoided CO2 emission per kWh of solar generated electricity
has been taken as 0.42 kg CO2/kWh2 based on power plant structure of the
region (95% natural gas fired).
For comparison, the CO2 emissions of modern power plants vary typically
between 0.4 kg CO2/kWh for natural gas fired combined cycle power plants
and 0.85 kg CO2/kWh for coal fired steam power plants as shown in table
below.

Natural gas fired

combined cycle power
plant
Heavy fuel oil fired steam
power plant
Coal fired steam power
plant

CO2 emission
based on LCV of
fuel
(g/kWh)
200

Efficiency of
Plant

CO2 emission based

on net generation

%
50%

(g/kWh)
400

278

40%

695

340

40%

850

Table 9-5: CO2 emissions of typical fossil fired power plants

2 see report prepared for World Bank: Ris-R-1380(EN), Wind Power Projects in the
CDM: Methodologies and Tools for Baselines, Carbon Financing and Sustainability
Analysis, Ris National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, December 2002, by Lasse
Ringius, Poul Erik Grohnheit, Lars Henrik Nielsen, Anton-Louis Olivier, Jyoti Painuly,
and Arturo Villavicencio

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9-3

9.5

Calculation of Generation Costs

The calculation has been performed for different operation modes of the
ISCC in accordance to the performance analysis:

ISCC operation mode (base) with 75/90% load

ISCC operation mode which follows the load curve of the grid
(minimum load limited to 75% due to technical reason).

This will analyze the advantage to follow the peak of the grid which is
basically in accordance to the solar irradiation.
The Solar power plant with rankine cycle have been evaluated for different
options in accordance to the performance analysis. Variation of operation
modes are not possible, due to the nature of the system, which follows the
solar irradiation in any case.

9.5.1

ISCC base operation load 75/90% and RCS

The following tables and figures show the results of calculation of generation
costs (LEC), also divided into levelized fossil and solar generation cost.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Generation Cost

Investment Cost
Electricity to the grid
Exergetic Solar Share
Exergetic solar generation
Exergetic fossil generation

Fuel consumption (in LCV)

Fuel Cost per unit LCV
(in base year, contract signature)

Exchange rate
Discount rate (real, on top of inflation)
Escalation for fuel (on top of inflation)
Escalation for O&M (on top of inflation)
Escalation for consumables (on top of inflation)
Project Life Time (after start of operation)
Levelized Electricity Generation Cost (LEC)
Capital cost
Fuel cost
O&M cost
Cost of Consumables

Levelized Generation Cost (LEC)

LEC of solar generation
Capital cost
Fuel cost
O&M cost
Cost of Consumables

6.9

0.27
8.0%

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

mln $
GWh/a

629
3569

494
3569

643
3366

508
3273

GWh/a
GWh/a

5.6%
198
3371

2.8%
101
3469

8.2%
277
3089

5.4%
178
3095

3093

GWh/a

6483

6679

5916

5928

5925

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

$ / MWh

17
13
7
0.1

13
14
6
0.1

18
13
7
0.1

15
13
7
0.1

$ / MWh

37

33

38

34

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

171
1.0
33
0.1

202
2.6
40
0.1

134
0.0
27
0.1

$ / MWh

204

245

162

AED/MBTU
AED/$
%/a

1.34%

%/a

3.0%

%/a

1.0%

%/a

25

years

$ / MWh
$ / MWh
$ / MWh

$ / MWh
$ / MWh

Levelized Solar Generation Cost (LEC)

Solar Rankine Cycle

V1a

V3a

V3b

V4a

Ref-CC

RC

RC

RC

V4b
RC

246
3093

429
260

293
171

447
367

312
231

100.0%
260

100.0%
171

65.9%
242
125

68.4%
158
73

240

140

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

7
14
5
0.1

154
0
29
0.1

161
0
33
0.1

114
5
22
0.1

126
4
26
0.1

27

183

193

141

157

138
0.0
30
0.1

154
0.0
29
0.1

161
0.0
33
0.1

169

181

31
0.1

36
0.1

168

183

193

200

217

Table 9-6: Results of Levelized Generation costs (Details)

Following figures give an example for the segregation of generation costs.

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9-4

300

250

Solar Generation

S/MWh

200

150

100

50

0
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generation (GWh/a)

Fuel

Fossil Generation
Solar Generation
Total Generation

O&M

Capital

3371 GWh/a at
198 GWh/a at
3569 GWh/a at

27 $/MWh
204 $/MWh
37 $/MWh

Figure 9-1: Segregation of generation costs for option V1a

250

Solar Generation

200

S/MWh

150

100

50

0
0%

10%

20%

30%
Fuel

40%
O&M

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Capital

Generation (GWh/a)

Fossil Generation
Solar Generation
Total Generation

73 GWh/a at
158 GWh/a at
231 GWh/a at

27 $/MWh
217 $/MWh
157 $/MWh

Figure 9-2: Segregation of generation costs for option V4b

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9-5

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Generation Cost Summary

Solar Rankine Cycle

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

V3a

V3b

V4a

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Ref-CC

RC

RC

RC

RC

3093
27

260
183

171
193

367
141

231
157

260
183

171
193

242
200

158
217

100%

100%

66%

68%

125
27

73
27

Total Generation
at generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

3569
37

3569
33

3366
38

3273
34

Solar Generation
at solar generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

198
204

101
245

277
162

178
168

5.6%

2.8%

8.2%

5.4%

Fossil Generation
at fossil generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

3371
27

3469
27

3089
27

3095
27

3093
27

97%
6
22
235

92%
11
37
399

95%
8
25
267

100%

mln$

94%
10
35
376

Difference in LEC between ISCC and Ref-CC

Incremental annual cost
Net Present Value of incremental cost

$ / MWh
mln$

Incremental Cost (at time of Investment)

Total CO2 emmission reduction (life of project)

Specific incremental cost for CO2 reduction

V4b

157
41
436

167
29
304

34%
114
42
448

32%
130
30
322

322

mln $

376

235

399

267

436

304

448

mln t/CO2

2.1

1.1

2.9

1.9

2.7

1.8

2.6

1.7

$/tCO2

181

222

137

143

159

170

172

190

Table 9-7: Results of Levelized Generation costs and Incremental costs (Summary)
Based on a natural gas price of 6.9 AED/MBTU in the first year of operation
(2010), the generation costs of the Reference Plant will be 27 US$/MWh.
The lowest total LEC of ISCC will have option V1b (33 US$/MWh), with
the lowest solar share of 2.8%. The lowest LEC referred to Solar generation
only has option V2a (162 US$/MWh) with the highest solar share of 8.2%.
Due to the low fuel price, the incremental costs are very high. The sensitivity
analysis will show their impact to the fuel price.

9.5.2

Sensitivity Analysis (ISCC base operation mode)

The sensitivity analysis has been done for following parameters:
Discount rate: 5%, 10% (base 8%)
CAPEX: -15%, + 15%
Fuel price: max. 85 AED/MBTU
Solar heat from solar field: +10/-10%
The results are shown in following tables and figures.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity analysis for generation cost

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

37
37
62
100
126
186
37

33
33
59
98
125
187
33

0% Base
15%
-15%
8%

37
39
34
37

8% Base
5%
10%
0% Base
10%
-10%

Sensitivity of LEC ($/MWh)

Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

Deviation in cost estimate

Discount Rate (real, on top of inflation)

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85
0%

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

Deviation in Solar Generation

V3b

V4a

Ref-CC

RC

RC

RC

RC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

38
38
62
99
124
183
38

34
34
59
98
123
184
34

27
27
53
94
121
184
27

183
183
183
183
183
183
183

193
193
193
193
193
193
193

141
141
150
164
173
195
141

157
157
165
178
187
207
157

33
35
31
33

38
41
35
38

34
37
32
34

27
28
26
27

183
207
160
183

193
218
169
193

141
158
124
141

157
176
138
157

37
33
39
37

33
30
35
33

38
34
41
38

34
31
37
34

27
25
28
27

183
147
210
183

193
156
221
193

141
114
160
141

157
128
179
157

37
36
37

33
33
33

38
38
38

34
34
35

27
27
27

183
167
204

193
176
215

141
132
151

157
147
169

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Solar Rankine Cycle

V3a

V4b

9-6

Table 9-8: Results of Sensitivity Analysis (LEC)

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity analysis for solar generation cost

Sensitivity of Solar LEC ($/MWh)
Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

Deviation in cost estimate

Discount Rate (real, on top of inflation)

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85
0%
0%
15%
-15%
8%

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

204
204
204
204
204
204
204
204
230
179
204

245
245
245
245
245
245
245
245
275
215
245

162
162
162
162
162
162
162
162
182
142
162

204
164
234
204
204
186
227

245
198
279
245
245
223
272

162
130
185
162
162
147
179

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

Base

8% Base
5%
10%

Deviation in Solar Generation

0% Base
10%
-10%

Solar Rankine Cycle

V3a

V3b

V4a

Ref-CC

RC

RC

RC

V4b
RC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

168
168
168
168
168
168
168
168
188
147
168

183
183
183
183
183
183
183
183
207
160
183

193
193
193
193
193
193
193
193
218
169
193

200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
225
175
200

217
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
245
190
217

168
136
191
168
168
153
186

183
147
210
183
183
167
204

193
156
221
193
193
176
215

200
160
229
200
200
181
223

217
175
248
217
217
197
242

Table 9-9: Results of Sensitivity Analysis (Solar LEC)

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity analysis for incremental cost

Sensitivity of Incremental Cost (M$)
Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

M$

M$

M$

376
376
324
244
191
65

235
235
212
176
152
96

399
399
321
202
122
-67

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

Solar Rankine Cycle

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

RC

RC

RC

RC

M$

M$

M$

M$

M$

267
267
217
141
89
-32

436
436
362
250
175
-3

304
304
256
182
133
16

448
448
380
275
205
40

322
322
277
209
163
56

Ref-CC

Table 9-10: Results of Sensitivity Analysis (Incremental cost)

250

LEC US$/MWh

200

150

100
V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

Ref-CC

50

0
5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Discount rate

Figure 9-3: Sensitivity Discount Rate

The sensitivity of the discount rate shows a higher impact of RSC plants, due
to their specifically higher CAPEX component.
/ Fichtner Solar
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9-7

250

LEC US$/MWh

200

150

100
V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

Ref-CC

50

0
85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

CAPEX deviation

Figure 9-4: Sensitivity CAPEX

250

LEC US$/MWh

200

150

100

50

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

Ref-CC

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Fuel Price AED/MBTU

Figure 9-5: Sensitivity Fuel Price

The sensitivity shows that a fuel price of 72 AED/MBTU will be required to
set the incremental cost to zero. The economic operation will be reached for
Option V2a at this fuel price. All other options need a higher fuel price.
/ Fichtner Solar
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9-8

500

450

400

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

V3a

V3b

V4a

V4b

Incremental Cost Mln US$

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Fuel Price AED/MBTU

Figure 9-6: Sensitivity Fuel Price/Incremental cost

Options V2a/b show the biggest potential to convert the solar thermal energy
most appropriate. In any case, Option V1b shows at the current fuel price
the best LEC (33 US$/MWh) and lowest incremental cost (235 Mil. US$).
At a fuel price of LFO level, the incremental cost will be decreased to 152
Mil. US$ for option V1b, but option V2b will get a better LEC and lower
incremental cost (89 Mil. US$). Option V2a will be the most appropriate
option, if the fuel price will be higher than LFO-level.
This shows the potential for further optimization of option V2a to get the
lowest incremental costs at same solar share, calculated for option V1b.
The options V2a/b (ISCC Solar plus) are recommended. It has the lowest
generation cost for the solar generated electricity (162-168 $/MWh) among
all variants considered.
It generates 277 GWh/a (with storage) respectively 178 GWh/a (without
storage) of solar electricity (when comparing the total generation to that of a
standard fossil only combined cycle power plant using the same amount of
fuel). Thereby it avoids 75.000 to 116.000 tons (of CO2 emissions every
year, amounting to 1.9 to 2.9 million tons for the 25 years technical life span.
The incremental cost works out at 399 M$ for option V2a. It is larger than
the option V2b (ISCC Solar plus without storage, 267 M$). However this
variant with thermal storage has also a larger solar field and it generates
more solar electricity than the other variants. It permits longer hours at
design solar heat and thereby the solar generation can contribute with a
larger probability to the peak power requirements.
/ Fichtner Solar
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When comparing with higher fuel prices, the incremental costs will decrease.
In case of LFO with a fuel price of 53.29 AED/MBTU, the incremental cost
would decrease to 89-122 M$. At 72 AED/MBTU, the incremental cost
would decrease to zero.

9.5.3

ISCC operation mode (2005 load profile)

The following tables and figures show the results of calculation of different
operation modes of the ISCC.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Generation Cost

Investment Cost
Electricity to the grid
Exergetic Solar Share
Exergetic solar generation
Exergetic fossil generation

Fuel consumption (in LCV)

Fuel Cost per unit LCV
(in base year, contract signature)

Exchange rate
Discount rate (real, on top of inflation)
Escalation for fuel (on top of inflation)
Escalation for O&M (on top of inflation)
Escalation for consumables (on top of inflation)
Project Life Time (after start of operation)
Levelized Electricity Generation Cost (LEC)
Capital cost
Fuel cost
O&M cost
Cost of Consumables

Levelized Generation Cost (LEC)

LEC of solar generation
Capital cost
Fuel cost
O&M cost
Cost of Consumables

6.9

0.27
8.0%

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

mln $
GWh/a

629
3569

494
3569

643
3366

508
3273

GWh/a
GWh/a

5.6%
198
3371

2.8%
101
3469

8.2%
277
3089

GWh/a

6483

6679

5916

V1b

V2a

V2b

Ref-CC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Ref-CC

246
3093

629
3367

494
3367

643
3191

508
3098

246
2919

5.4%
178
3095

3093

6.2%
208
3159

3.3%
112
3255

9.0%
288
2903

6.1%
189
2910

2919

5928

5925

6065

6258

5549

5562

5581

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

0.27
8%
1.3%
3%
1%
25

$ / MWh

17
13
7
0.1

13
14
6
0.1

18
13
7
0.1

15
13
7
0.1

7
14
5
0.1

18
13
7
0.1

14
14
6
0.1

19
13
7
0.1

15
13
7
0.1

8
14
5
0.1

$ / MWh

37

33

38

34

27

38

34

39

35

27

$ / MWh

171
1.0
33
0.1

202
2.6
40
0.1

134
0.0
27
0.1

138
0.0
30
0.1

163
0.8
32
0.1

183
2.2
37
0.1

130
0.0
27
0.1

130
0.0
29
0.1

$ / MWh

204

245

162

168

196

222

156

159

AED/MBTU
AED/$
%/a

1.34%

%/a

3.0%

%/a

1.0%

%/a

25

years

$ / MWh
$ / MWh
$ / MWh

$ / MWh
$ / MWh
$ / MWh

Levelized Solar Generation Cost (LEC)

ISCC (2005 Load Profile)

V1a

Table 9-11: Results of Levelized Generation costs (Details)

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Generation Cost Summary

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC (2005 Load Profile)

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

Ref-CC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Ref-CC

3093
27

3367
38

3367
34

3191
39

3098
35

2919
27

208
196

112
222

288
156

189
159

Total Generation
at generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

3569
37

3569
33

3366
38

3273
34

Solar Generation
at solar generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

198
204

101
245

277
162

178
168

5.6%

2.8%

8.2%

5.4%

6.2%

3.3%

9.0%

6.1%

Fossil Generation
at fossil generation Cost (LEC) of

GWh/a
$ / MWh

3371
27

3469
27

3089
27

3095
27

3093
27

3159
27

3255
27

2903
27

2910
27

2919
27

97%
6
22
235

92%
11
37
399

95%
8
25
267

100%

94%
10
35
374

97%
6
22
233

91%
12
37
396

94%
8
25
265

100%

mln$

94%
10
35
376

mln $

376

235

399

267

374

233

396

265

mln t/CO2

2.1

1.1

2.9

1.9

2.2

1.2

3.0

2.0

$/tCO2

181

222

137

143

172

198

131

134

Difference in LEC between ISCC and Ref-CC

Incremental annual cost
Net Present Value of incremental cost

Incremental Cost (at time of Investment)

Total CO2 emmission reduction (life of project)

Specific incremental cost for CO2 reduction

$ / MWh
mln$

Table 9-12: Results of Levelized Generation costs and Incremental costs (Summary)
The results show slightly higher levelized generation costs for the power
plants operated in accordance to the load profile of the year 2005, due to
lower total power generation.
The LEC of solar generation are lower for the operation mode 2005 load
profile, due to higher solar share. This will lead to lower incremental cost,
/ Fichtner Solar
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9-10

due to the better performance in comparison to the REF-CC, which will also
operated in the same mode.

9.5.4

Sensitivity Analysis (ISCC 2005 load profile)

The results are shown in following tables and figures.
ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity analysis for generation cost

Sensitivity of LEC ($/MWh)
Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

Deviation in cost estimate

Discount Rate (real, on top of inflation)

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85
0%
0%
15%
-15%
8%
8%
5%
10%

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

Base

Base

Deviation in Solar Generation

0% Base
10%
-10%

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

37
37
62
100
126
186
37
37
39
34
37
37
33
39
37
37
36
37

33
33
59
98
125
187
33
33
35
31
33
33
30
35
33
33
33
33

38
38
62
99
124
183
38
38
41
35
38
38
34
41
38
38
38
38

Sensitivity of Solar LEC ($/MWh)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

Deviation in cost estimate

Discount Rate (real, on top of inflation)

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85
0%
0%
15%
-15%
8%
8%
5%
10%

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

Base

Base

Deviation in Solar Generation

0% Base
10%
-10%

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Ref-CC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

34
34
59
98
123
184
34
34
37
32
34
34
31
37
34
34
34
35

27
27
53
94
121
184
27
27
28
26
27
27
25
28
27
27
27
27

38
38
63
101
126
186
38
38
40
35
38
38
34
40
38
38
37
38

34
34
59
99
125
187
34
34
36
32
34
34
31
36
34
34
34
34

39
39
63
100
124
182
39
39
42
36
39
39
35
42
39
39
39
39

35
35
60
98
123
183
35
35
38
33
35
35
32
38
35
35
35
35

27
27
54
94
121
185
27
27
28
26
27
27
26
28
27
27
27
27

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

204
204
204
204
204
204
204
204
230
179
204
204
164
234
204
204
186
227

245
245
245
245
245
245
245
245
275
215
245
245
198
279
245
245
223
272

162
162
162
162
162
162
162
162
182
142
162
162
130
185
162
162
147
179

168
168
168
168
168
168
168
168
188
147
168
168
136
191
168
168
153
186

ISCC (2005 Load Profile)

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

Ref-CC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

Ref-CC

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

$ / MWh

196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
221
171
196
196
158
224
196
196
178
217

222
222
222
222
222
222
222
222
250
195
222
222
180
254
222
222
203
247

156
156
156
156
156
156
156
156
176
137
156
156
126
178
156
156
142
173

159
159
159
159
159
159
159
159
178
139
159
159
128
181
159
159
145
176

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity of Incremental Cost (M$)

LFO = 14.7 $/GJ = 51,2 AED/MBTU (2007)=53.29 (2010)

V2a

ISCC

V1a

Sensitivity analysis for incremental cost

Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

V1b

Ref-CC

ISCC (75/90 Load)

Sensitivity analysis for solar generation cost

Price of Fuel year 2010 (AED/MBTU)

ISCC (2005 Load Profile)

V1a

6.9
6.9
20
40
53
85

Base gas
Base gas

Base LFO
High LFO

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

M$

M$

M$

376
376
324
244
191
65

235
235
212
176
152
96

399
399
321
202
122
-67

ISCC (2005 Load Profile)

V1a

V1b

V2a

V2b

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

ISCC

M$

M$

M$

M$

M$

267
267
217
141
89
-32

374
374
319
235
179
46

233
233
207
166
139
75

396
396
315
191
107
-89

265
265
211
130
75
-53

Ref-CC

Ref-CC

Table 9-13: Results of Sensitivity Analysis

/ Fichtner Solar
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9.6

Conclusion and recommendation

By integrating a Solar Island into a Combined Cycle power plant at the site
of Al Mirfa (variants V2) it is possible to increase the amount of solar
generated electricity (kWh) by about 10% as compared to the amount of
solar generated electricity that can be produced by a Rankine Cycle plants in
Madinat Zayed (variants V3 or V4) with the same size of solar field and
thermal storage.
The integration will also save capital and O&M cost, as major components
can be shared and benefit from the economics of scale.
The solar generation costs (in $/MWh) of the ISCC variants at the site of Al
Mirfa are about some 15% - 20% below the solar generation costs of the
Rankine cycle variants at the site of Madinat Zayed.
If thermal storage is used then it is also necessary to increase the size of the
solar collector area. Thereby more solar electricity can be generated and the
specific solar generation cost (in $/MWh) will decrease. A further benefit is
the added operational flexibility and improved correlation of load and solar
generation. However due to the larger size and production the absolute
value of the incremental cost will increase.
The variant V2 (ISCC Solar plus at Al Mirfa) is recommended. The key data
for the ISCC variant V2 are shown in following table.
Operation mode

75/90
% load

2005
load
profile

Net electric power (with max. solar heat):

MW

502

Net electric power (without solar heat):

MW

402

Solar collector area:

Thermal Storage:

510,000

MWh

Fossil generated electricity:

GWh/a

3,095

2,910

Solar generated electricity:

GWh/a

178

189

5.4%

6.1 %

Solar share:
Investment Cost:

Mln US $

508

Generation cost (overall):

US$/MWh

34

35

Fossil generation cost:

US$/MWh

27

27

Solar generation cost:

US$/MWh

168

159

Incremental Cost (against gas):

Mln US$

267

265

Incremental Cost (against LFO):

Mln US$

89

75

tons/a

75,000

79,000

CO2 emission saving

In the conceptual design phase a further optimization of the different main

parameters should be done (size of solar field, size of storage and size of
steam turbine).
/ Fichtner Solar
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