Christian Castillo

Justin Cheng
Carlos De Guzman
Sabine Huibonhoa
Pierre Poisson

12/12/14
POM 102 C

Demand Forecast
The group intends to forecast the demand for beer, particularly in the premium
flavored beer segment, within the Philippine demographic. With this data, the group intends
to predict a possible market share which can be dominated by the company with their line of
products.

Methodology
The group initially collected research data and statistics on the current market for
beer in the Philippines in addition to the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, the group also
explored on the performance of well known players and competitors in the Philippine market
and collected data that covered the current trends in the industry, as well as any factors that
may affect the demand of beer within the country. With all this in mind, the group intends to
use the linear regression method of forecasting in order to map out a possible long term
demand for flavored beer in the next 5 years.
Data & Analysis

According to Euromonitor, grocery retailers are the primary source of beer sales in
the domestic market for beer, accounting for 1.1 billion litres of beer sold in 2013. Moreover,
the retail consumption of beer has seen a steady growth from the years 2008 to 2012. In
convenience stores and supermarkets, flavored beers account for approximately 2 in every
15 beer choices that are displayed. But if taken into account the rest of the flavored
alternatives, the statistics would actually rise to about approximately 4 in every 28 alcoholic
choices.
Market Trends
The recent implementation of a revised excise tax had a considerable effect on the
market for beer. The resulting increase in beer prices brought about by the implementation
saw a 12% decline in total sales volume for beer in the year 2013. Higher prices due to the
excise tax pose as a substantial threat to the overall growth of beer sales in the Philippine
market. According to research however, the impact of such prices is predicted to weaken as
consumers come to accept the new prices and as their incomes continue to increase. For
the market of beer in the Philippines to return to its healthy sales growth, companies are
increasingly compelled to develop new products and to create innovative marketing
activities.
Another notable trend is the industrys attempt to target more females by creating a
new product line that caters to their preferences for a lighter or less bitter beer. In order to
achieve this, San Miguel in particular introduced new beer variants to the market with its
Apple and Lemon flavored beer.
The newfound popularity of Craft beer is also a significant trend in the local market.
Craft beer, which is locally made and hand crafted in microbreweries, caters to high-end
consumers looking for a more authentic and rich taste. Craft beer is more available in
upscale and commercialized areas.

Long Term Forecast (5 Years)

The data from the years 2014 to 2018 was taken from Euromonitor International.
Year 2019 was solved for by linear regression with the equation y=19.59x - 38117.94
formulated from the Euromonitor data from previous years (2014-2018).
There is little data concerning the demand and sales volume for flavored beer in the
Philippines as the market for such products is considerably young. San Miguels line of apple
and lemon flavored beer are currently the only notable products in the market insofar as
flavored beers go, as opposed to the more diverse market segment of flavored alcohol mixes
such as Tanduay Ice and Antonov Vodka.

In the Asia-Pacific region as a whole however, there is a reported 1% market

category segmentation for specialty beers, a category wherein flavored beer lies. Because of
the lack of data on flavored beer in the Philippines, the group made use of the data on the
market for beer in the Asia-Pacific region. According to this data, the market segment for
flavored beer is 1%. Applying this to the 2015 forecast for the Philippine demand for beer,
the group expects 13.423 million liters of flavored beer to be sold.
Specialized beer such as flavored beer is a trend gaining momentum as more and
more beer companies such as San Miguel are looking to expand their consumer base by
appealing to women. With this in mind, the group is looking to take advantage of the
burgeoning trend in the market and intends to compete with San Miguel on this particular
segment of the market, and introduce a line of premium flavored beers that will not only
compete with existing products, but also set the standard for the slowly growing market
segment.

References:
Euromonitor International. (September 2014) Beer in the Philippines. Retrieved from
http://www.portal.euromonitor.com/portal
Euromonitor International. (September 2014) Alcoholic Drinks in the Philippines. Retrieved
from http://www.portal.euromonitor.com/portal
MarketLine Industry Profiles. (October 2014) Beer in Asia-Pacific: Market Segmentation.
Retrieved from http://www.portal.marketline.com/portal