A

PROJECT REPORT

ON

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF

MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.)

(INDIAN INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
SIKKIM-MANIPAL UNIVERSITY, DELHI)
2008-10

BY

RANJANA G. DESHPANDE

ROLL NO. 810832241

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 CHAPTER 1

OZONE DEPLETION

INTRODUCTION

The ozone layer protects the Earth from the ultraviolet rays sent down by the sun.  If the
ozone layer is depleted by human action, the effects on the planet could be
catastrophic.

Ozone is present in the stratosphere.  The stratosphere reaches 30 miles above the
Earth, and at the very top it contains ozone.  The suns rays are absorbed by the ozone
in the stratosphere and thus do not reach the Earth

Ozone is a bluish gas that is formed by three atoms of oxygen.  The form of oxygen that
humans breathe in consists of two oxygen atoms, O 2.  When found on the surface of the
planet, ozone is considered a dangerous pollutant and is one substance responsible for
producing the greenhouse effect.The highest regions of the stratosphere contain about
90% of all ozone.

In recent years, the ozone layer has been the subject of much discussion.  And rightly
so, because the ozone layer protects both plant and animal life on the planet. The fact
that the ozone layer was being depleted was discovered in the mid-1980s.  The main
cause of this is the release of CFCs, chlorofluorocarbons.

Antarctica was an early victim of ozone destruction.  A massive hole in the ozone layer
right above Antarctica now threatens not only that continent, but many others that could
be the victims of Antarctica's melting icecaps.  In the future, the ozone problem will have
to be solved so that the protective layer can be conserved.

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 Ozone

Ozone (O3) is a triatomic molecule, consisting of three oxygen atoms. It is an allotrope

of oxygen that is much less stable than the diatomic O2. Ground-level ozone is an air
pollutant with harmful effects on the respiratory systems of animals. The ozone layer in
the upper atmosphere filters potentially damaging ultraviolet light from reaching the
Earth's surface. It is present in low concentrations throughout the Earth's atmosphere. It
has many industrial and consumer applications.

Origin of ozone

Ozone-oxygen cycle in the ozone layer.

The photochemical mechanisms that give rise to the ozone layer were discovered by
the British physicist Sidney Chapman in 1930. Ozone in the Earth's stratosphere is
created by ultraviolet light striking oxygen molecules containing two oxygen atoms (O2),
splitting them into individual oxygen atoms (atomic oxygen); the atomic oxygen then
combines with unbroken O 2 to create ozone, O3. The ozone molecule is also unstable
(although, in the stratosphere, long-lived) and when ultraviolet light hits ozone it splits
into a molecule of O2 and an atom of atomic oxygen, a continuing process called the
ozone-oxygen cycle, thus creating an ozone layer in the stratosphere, the region from
about 10 to 50 km (32,000 to 164,000 feet) above Earth's surface. About 90% of the
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ozone in our atmosphere is contained in the stratosphere. Ozone concentrations are
greatest between about 20 and 40 km, where they range from about 2 to 8 parts per
million. If all of the ozone were compressed to the pressure of the air at sea level, it
would be only a few millimeters thick.

Structure

The structure of ozone, according to experimental evidence from microwave

spectroscopy, is bent, with C2v symmetry (similar to the water molecule), O – O distance
of 127.2 pm and O – O – O angle of 116.78°. The central atom forms an sp²
hybridization with one lone pair. Ozone is a polar molecule with a dipole moment of
0.5337 D. The bonding can be expressed as a resonance hybrid with a single bond on
one side and double bond on the other producing an overall bond order of 1.5 for each
side.

Chemistry

Ozone is a powerful oxidizing agent, far better than dioxygen. It is also unstable at high
concentrations, decaying to ordinary diatomic oxygen (in about half an hour in
atmospheric conditions):

2 O 3 → 3 O2

This reaction proceeds more rapidly with increasing temperature and decreasing
pressure. Deflagration of ozone can be triggered by a spark, and can occur in ozone
concentrations of 10 wt% or higher.

Ozone layer

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The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere which contains relatively high
concentrations of ozone (O3). This layer absorbs 93-99% of the sun's high frequency
ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life on earth. Over 91% of the ozone in
Earth's atmosphere is present here. It is mainly located in the lower portion of the
stratosphere from approximately 10 km to 50 km above Earth, though the thickness
varies seasonally and geographically. The ozone layer was discovered in 1913 by the
French physicists Charles Fabry and Henri Buisson. Its properties were explored in
detail by the British meteorologist G. M. B. Dobson, who developed a simple
spectrophotometer (the Dobsonmeter) that could be used to measure stratospheric
ozone from the ground. Between 1928 and 1958 Dobson established a worldwide
network of ozone monitoring stations which continues to operate today. The "Dobson
unit", a convenient measure of the columnar density of ozone overhead, is named in his
honor.

Ultraviolet light and ozone

Levels of ozone at various altitudes and blocking of ultraviolet radiation.

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UV-B energy levels at several altitudes. Blue line shows DNA sensitivity. Red line
shows surface energy level with 10% decrease in ozone

Although the concentration of the ozone in the ozone layer is very small, it is vitally
important to life because it absorbs biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation coming
from the Sun. UV radiation is divided into three categories, based on its wavelength;
these are referred to as UV-A (400-315 nm), UV-B (315-280 nm), and UV-C (280-
100 nm). UV-C, which would be very harmful to humans, is entirely screened out by
ozone at around 35 km altitude. UV-B radiation can be harmful to the skin and is the
main cause of sunburn; excessive exposure can also cause genetic damage, resulting
in problems such as skin cancer. The ozone layer is very effective at screening out UV-
B; for radiation with a wavelength of 290 nm, the intensity at the top of the atmosphere
is 350 million times stronger than at the Earth's surface. Nevertheless, some UV-B
reaches the surface. Most UV-A reaches the surface; this radiation is significantly less
harmful, although it can potentially cause genetic damage.

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Distribution of ozone in the stratosphere

The thickness of the ozone layer—that is, the total amount of ozone in a column
overhead—varies by a large factor worldwide, being in general smaller near the equator
and larger towards the poles. It also varies with season, being in general thicker during
the spring and thinner during the autumn in the northern hemisphere. The reasons for
this latitude and seasonal dependence are complicated, involving atmospheric
circulation patterns as well as solar intensity.

Since stratospheric ozone is produced by solar UV radiation, one might expect to find
the highest ozone levels over the tropics and the lowest over polar regions. The same
argument would lead one to expect the highest ozone levels in the summer and the
lowest in the winter. The observed behavior is very different: most of the ozone is found
in the mid-to-high latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres, and the highest
levels are found in the spring, not summer, and the lowest in the autumn, not winter in
the northern hemisphere. During winter, the ozone layer actually increases in depth.
This puzzle is explained by the prevailing stratospheric wind patterns, known as the
Brewer-Dobson circulation. While most of the ozone is indeed created over the tropics,
the stratospheric circulation then transports it poleward and downward to the lower
stratosphere of the high latitudes. However in the southern hemisphere, owing to the
ozone hole phenomenon, the lowest amounts of column ozone found anywhere in the
world are over the Antarctic in the southern spring period of September and October.

Ozone as a greenhouse gas

Although ozone was present at ground level before the Industrial Revolution, peak
concentrations are now far higher than the pre-industrial levels, and even background
concentrations well away from sources of pollution are substantially higher. This
increase in ozone is of further concern because ozone present in the upper troposphere
acts as a greenhouse gas, absorbing some of the infrared energy emitted by the earth.
Quantifying the greenhouse gas potency of ozone is difficult because it is not present in
uniform concentrations across the globe. However, the scientific review on the climate

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change (the IPCC Third Assessment Report) suggests that the radiative forcing of
tropospheric ozone is about 25% that of carbon dioxide.

Ozone depletion

Ozone depletion describes two distinct, but related observations: a slow, steady decline
of about 4% per decade in the total volume of ozone in Earth's stratosphere (ozone
layer) since the late 1970s, and a much larger, but seasonal, decrease in stratospheric
ozone over Earth's polar regions during the same period. The latter phenomenon is
commonly referred to as the ozone hole. In addition to this well-known stratospheric
ozone depletion, there are also tropospheric ozone depletion events, which occur near
the surface in polar regions during spring.

Image of the largest Antarctic ozone hole ever recorded (September 2006).

The detailed mechanism by which the polar ozone holes form is different from that for
the mid-latitude thinning, but the most important process in both trends is catalytic
destruction of ozone by atomic chlorine and bromine. The main source of these halogen

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atoms in the stratosphere is photodissociation of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds,
commonly called freons, and of bromofluorocarbon compounds known as halons.
These compounds are transported into the stratosphere after being emitted at the
surface. Both ozone depletion mechanisms strengthened as emissions of CFCs and
halons increased.

CFCs and other contributory substances are commonly referred to as ozone-depleting

substances (ODS). Since the ozone layer prevents most harmful UVB wavelengths
(270–315 nm) of ultraviolet light (UV light) from passing through the Earth's atmosphere,
observed and projected decreases in ozone have generated worldwide concern leading
to adoption of the Montreal Protocol that bans the production of CFCs and halons as
well as related ozone depleting chemicals such as carbon tetrachloride and
trichloroethane. It is suspected that a variety of biological consequences such as
increases in skin cancer, cataracts, damage to plants, and reduction of plankton
populations in the ocean's photic zone may result from the increased UV exposure due
to ozone depletion

Ozone cycle overview

Three forms (or allotropes) of oxygen are involved in the ozone-oxygen cycle: oxygen
atoms (O or atomic oxygen), oxygen gas (O 2 or diatomic oxygen), and ozone gas (O 3 or
triatomic oxygen). Ozone is formed in the stratosphere when oxygen molecules
photodissociate after absorbing an ultraviolet photon whose wavelength is shorter than
240 nm. This produces two oxygen atoms. The atomic oxygen then combines with O 2 to
create O3. Ozone molecules absorb UV light between 310 and 200 nm, following which
ozone splits into a molecule of O 2 and an oxygen atom. The oxygen atom then joins up
with an oxygen molecule to regenerate ozone. This is a continuing process which
terminates when an oxygen atom "recombines" with an ozone molecule to make two O 2
molecules: O + O3 → 2 O2

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Global monthly average total ozone amount.

The overall amount of ozone in the stratosphere is determined by a balance between

photochemical production and recombination.

Ozone can be destroyed by a number of free radical catalysts, the most important of
which are the hydroxyl radical (OH·), the nitric oxide radical (NO·), atomic chlorine (Cl·)
and bromine (Br·). All of these have both natural and manmade sources; at the present
time, most of the OH· and NO· in the stratosphere is of natural origin, but human activity
has dramatically increased the levels of chlorine and bromine. These elements are
found in certain stable organic compounds, especially chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
which may find their way to the stratosphere without being destroyed in the troposphere
due to their low reactivity. Once in the stratosphere, the Cl and Br atoms are liberated
from the parent compounds by the action of ultraviolet light, e.g. ('h' is Planck's
constant, 'ν' is frequency of electromagnetic radiation)

CFCl3 + hν → CFCl2 + Cl

The Cl and Br atoms can then destroy ozone molecules through a variety of catalytic
cycles. In the simplest example of such a cycle, a chlorine atom reacts with an ozone

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molecule, taking an oxygen atom with it (forming ClO) and leaving a normal oxygen
molecule. The chlorine monoxide (i.e., the ClO) can react with a second molecule of
ozone (i.e., O3) to yield another chlorine atom and two molecules of oxygen. The
chemical shorthand for these gas-phase reactions is:

Cl + O3 → ClO + O2

ClO + O3 → Cl + 2 O2

The overall effect is a decrease in the amount of ozone. More complicated mechanisms
have been discovered that lead to ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere as well.

A single chlorine atom would keep on destroying ozone (thus a catalyst) for up to two
years (the time scale for transport back down to the troposphere) were it not for
reactions that remove them from this cycle by forming reservoir species such as
hydrogen chloride (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). On a per atom basis, bromine is
even more efficient than chlorine at destroying ozone, but there is much less bromine in
the atmosphere at present. As a result, both chlorine and bromine contribute
significantly to the overall ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have shown that fluorine
and iodine atoms participate in analogous catalytic cycles. However, in the Earth's
stratosphere, fluorine atoms react rapidly with water and methane to form strongly-
bound HF, while organic molecules which contain iodine react so rapidly in the lower
atmosphere that they do not reach the stratosphere in significant quantities.
Furthermore, a single chlorine atom is able to react with 100,000 ozone molecules. This
fact plus the amount of chlorine released into the atmosphere by chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) yearly demonstrates how dangerous CFCs are to the environment.

OZONE DEPLETION CAUSES:

Only a few factors combine to create the problem of ozone layer depletion.  The
production and emission of CFCs, chlorofluorocarbons, is by far the leading cause.

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Many countries have called for the end of CFC production because only a few produce
the chemical.  However, those industries that do use CFCs do not want to discontinue
usage of this highly valuable industrial chemical.

CFCs are used in industry in a variety of ways and have been amazingly useful in many
products.  Discovered in the 1930s by American chemist Thomas Midgley, CFCs came
to be used in refrigerators, home insulation, plastic foam, and throwaway food
containers.

Only later did people realize the disaster CFCs caused in the stratosphere.  There, the
chlorine atom is removed from the CFC and attracts one of the three oxygen atoms in
the ozone molecule.  The process continues, and a single chlorine atom can destroy
over 100,000 molecules of ozone.

In 1974, Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina followed the path of CFCs.  Their
research proved that CFCs were entering the atmosphere, and they concluded that
99% of all CFC molecules would end up in the stratosphere.

Only in 1984, when the ozone layer hole was discovered over Antarctica, was the proof
truly conclusive.  At that point, it was hard to question the destructive capabilities of
CFCs.

Even if CFCs were banned, problems would remain.  There would still be no way to
remove the CFCs that are now present in the environment.  Clearly though, something
must be done to limit this international problem in the future

Observations on ozone layer depletion

The most pronounced decrease in ozone has been in the lower stratosphere. However,
the ozone hole is most usually measured not in terms of ozone concentrations at these
levels (which are typically of a few parts per million) but by reduction in the total column
ozone, above a point on the Earth's surface, which is normally expressed in Dobson
units, abbreviated as "DU". Marked decreases in column ozone in the Antarctic spring

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and early summer compared to the early 1970s and before have been observed using
instruments such as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS).

Lowest value of ozone measured by TOMS each year in the ozone hole.

Reductions of up to 70% in the ozone column observed in the austral (southern

hemispheric) spring over Antarctica and first reported in 1985 (Farman et al. 1985) are
continuing. Through the 1990s, total column ozone in September and October have
continued to be 40–50% lower than pre-ozone-hole values. In the Arctic the amount lost
is more variable year-to-year than in the Antarctic. The greatest declines, up to 30%,
are in the winter and spring, when the stratosphere is colder.

Reactions that take place on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play an important role in
enhancing ozone depletion. PSCs form more readily in the extreme cold of Antarctic
stratosphere. This is why ozone holes first formed, and are deeper, over Antarctica.
Early models failed to take PSCs into account and predicted a gradual global depletion,
which is why the sudden Antarctic ozone hole was such a surprise to many scientists.

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In middle latitudes it is preferable to speak of ozone depletion rather than holes.
Declines are about 3% below pre-1980 values for 35–60°N and about 6% for 35–60°S.
In the tropics, there are no significant trends. ]

Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and
upper tropospheric temperatures. The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the
absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some
stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such as
CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant.

Predictions of ozone levels remain difficult. The World Meteorological Organization

Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 44 comes out strongly in
favor for the Montreal Protocol, but notes that a UNEP 1994 Assessment overestimated
ozone loss for the 1994–1997 period

Chemicals in the atmosphere

CFCs in the atmosphere

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were invented by Thomas Midgley in the 1920s. They were
used in air conditioning/cooling units, as aerosol spray propellants prior to the 1980s,
and in the cleaning processes of delicate electronic equipment. They also occur as by-
products of some chemical processes. No significant natural sources have ever been
identified for these compounds — their presence in the atmosphere is due almost
entirely to human manufacture. As mentioned in the ozone cycle overview above, when
such ozone-depleting chemicals reach the stratosphere, they are dissociated by
ultraviolet light to release chlorine atoms. The chlorine atoms act as a catalyst, and
each can break down tens of thousands of ozone molecules before being removed from
the stratosphere. Given the longevity of CFC molecules, recovery times are measured
in decades. It is calculated that a CFC molecule takes an average of 15 years to go
from the ground level up to the upper atmosphere, and it can stay there for about a
century, destroying up to one hundred thousand ozone molecules during that time.

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Verification of observations

Scientists have been increasingly able to attribute the observed ozone depletion to the
increase of man-made (anthropogenic) halogen compounds from CFCs by the use of
complex chemistry transport models and their validation against observational data (e.g.
SLIMCAT, CLaMS). These models work by combining satellite measurements of
chemical concentrations and meteorological fields with chemical reaction rate constants
obtained in lab experiments. They are able to identify not only the key chemical
reactions but also the transport processes which bring CFC photolysis products into
contact with ozone

The ozone hole and its causes

Ozone hole in North America during 1984 (abnormally warm reducing ozone depletion)
and 1997 (abnormally cold resulting in increased seasonal depletion).

The Antarctic ozone hole is an area of the Antarctic stratosphere in which the recent
ozone levels have dropped to as low as 33% of their pre-1975 values. The ozone hole
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occurs during the Antarctic spring, from September to early December, as strong
westerly winds start to circulate around the continent and create an atmospheric
container. Within this polar vortex, over 50% of the lower stratospheric ozone is
destroyed during the Antarctic spring.

As explained above, the primary cause of ozone depletion is the presence of chlorine-
containing source gases (primarily CFCs and related halocarbons). In the presence of
UV light, these gases dissociate, releasing chlorine atoms, which then go on to catalyze
ozone destruction. The Cl-catalyzed ozone depletion can take place in the gas phase,
but it is dramatically enhanced in the presence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs).

These polar stratospheric clouds form during winter, in the extreme cold. Polar winters
are dark, consisting of 3 months without solar radiation (sunlight). The lack of sunlight
contributes to a decrease in temperature and the polar vortex traps and chills air.
Temperatures hover around or below -80 °C. These low temperatures form cloud
particles and are composed of either nitric acid (Type I PSC) or ice (Type II PSC). Both
types provide surfaces for chemical reactions that lead to ozone destruction.

The photochemical processes involved are complex but well understood. The key
observation is that, ordinarily, most of the chlorine in the stratosphere resides in stable
"reservoir" compounds, primarily hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO 2).
During the Antarctic winter and spring, however, reactions on the surface of the polar
stratospheric cloud particles convert these "reservoir" compounds into reactive free
radicals (Cl and ClO). The clouds can also remove NO 2 from the atmosphere by
converting it to nitric acid, which prevents the newly formed ClO from being converted
back into ClONO2.

The role of sunlight in ozone depletion is the reason why the Antarctic ozone depletion
is greatest during spring. During winter, even though PSCs are at their most abundant,
there is no light over the pole to drive the chemical reactions. During the spring,
however, the sun comes out, providing energy to drive photochemical reactions, and
melt the polar stratospheric clouds, releasing the trapped compounds. ]

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Most of the ozone that is destroyed is in the lower stratosphere, in contrast to the much
smaller ozone depletion through homogeneous gas phase reactions, which occurs
primarily in the upper stratosphere.

Warming temperatures near the end of spring break up the vortex around mid-
December. As warm, ozone-rich air flows in from lower latitudes, the PSCs are
destroyed, the ozone depletion process shuts down, and the ozone hole closes.

Consequences of ozone layer depletion

Since the ozone layer absorbs UVB ultraviolet light from the Sun, ozone layer depletion
is expected to increase surface UVB levels, which could lead to damage, including
increases in skin cancer. This was the reason for the Montreal Protocol. Although
decreases in stratospheric ozone are well-tied to CFCs and there are good theoretical
reasons to believe that decreases in ozone will lead to increases in surface UVB, there
is no direct observational evidence linking ozone depletion to higher incidence of skin
cancer in human beings. This is partly due to the fact that UVA, which has also been
implicated in some forms of skin cancer, is not absorbed by ozone, and it is nearly
impossible to control statistics for lifestyle changes in the populace

Increased UV

Ozone, while a minority constituent in the Earth's atmosphere, is responsible for most of
the absorption of UVB radiation. The amount of UVB radiation that penetrates through
the ozone layer decreases exponentially with the slant-path thickness/density of the
layer. Correspondingly, a decrease in atmospheric ozone is expected to give rise to
significantly increased levels of UVB near the surface.

Increases in surface UVB due to the ozone hole can be partially inferred by radiative
transfer model calculations, but cannot be calculated from direct measurements
because of the lack of reliable historical (pre-ozone-hole) surface UV data, although
more recent surface UV observation measurement programmes exist (e.g. at Lauder,
New Zealand).
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Because it is this same UV radiation that creates ozone in the ozone layer from O 2
(regular oxygen) in the first place, a reduction in stratospheric ozone would actually tend
to increase photochemical production of ozone at lower levels (in the troposphere),
although the overall observed trends in total column ozone still show a decrease, largely
because ozone produced lower down has a naturally shorter photochemical lifetime, so
it is destroyed before the concentrations could reach a level which would compensate
for the ozone reduction higher up.

Ozone depletion effects:

 Even minor problems of ozone depletion can have major effects.  Every time
even a small amount of the ozone layer is lost, more ultraviolet light from the sun
can reach the Earth.
 Every time 1% of the ozone layer is depleted, 2% more UV-B is able to reach the
surface of the planet.  UV-B increase is one of the most harmful consequences of
ozone depletion because it can cause skin cancer.

 The increased cancer levels caused by exposure to this ultraviolet light could be
enormous.  The EPA estimates that 60 million Americans born by the year 2075
will get skin cancer because of ozone depletion.  About one million of these
people will die.

 In addition to cancer, some research shows that a decreased ozone layer will
increase rates of malaria and other infectious diseases.  According to the EPA,
17 million more cases of cataracts can also be expected.

 The environment will also be negatively affected by ozone depletion.  The life
cycles of plants will change, disrupting the food chain.  Effects on animals will
also be severe, and are very difficult to foresee.

 Oceans will be hit hard as well.  The most basic microscopic organisms such as
plankton may not be able to survive.  If that happened, it would mean that all of

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 the other animals that are above plankton in the food chain would also die out. 
Other ecosystems such as forests and deserts will also be harmed.

 The planet's climate could also be affected by depletion of the ozone layer.  Wind
patterns could change, resulting in climatic changes throughout the world.

Biological effects

The main public concern regarding the ozone hole has been the effects of of increased
surface UV and microwave radiation on human health. So far, ozone depletion in most
locations has been typically a few percent and, as noted above, no direct evidence of
health damage is available in most latitudes. Were the high levels of depletion seen in
the ozone hole ever to be common across the globe, the effects could be substantially
more dramatic. As the ozone hole over Antarctica has in some instances grown so large
as to reach southern parts of Australia and New Zealand, environmentalists have been
concerned that the increase in surface UV could be significant.

Effects on humans

UVB (the higher energy UV radiation absorbed by ozone) is generally accepted to be a

contributory factor to skin cancer. In addition, increased surface UV leads to increased
tropospheric ozone, which is a health risk to humans. The increased surface UV also
represents an increase in the vitamin D synthetic capacity of the sunlight.

The cancer preventive effects of vitamin D represent a possible beneficial effect of

ozone depletion. In terms of health costs, the possible benefits of increased UV
irradiance may outweigh the burden.

1. Basal and Squamous Cell Carcinomas -- The most common forms of skin cancer
in humans, basal and squamous cell carcinomas, have been strongly linked to UVB
exposure. The mechanism by which UVB induces these cancers is well understood —
absorption of UVB radiation causes the pyrimidine bases in the DNA molecule to form
dimers, resulting in transcription errors when the DNA replicates. These cancers are

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relatively mild and rarely fatal, although the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma
sometimes requires extensive reconstructive surgery. By combining epidemiological
data with results of animal studies, scientists have estimated that a one percent
decrease in stratospheric ozone would increase the incidence of these cancers by 2%.

2. Malignant Melanoma -- Another form of skin cancer, malignant melanoma, is much

less common but far more dangerous, being lethal in about 15% - 20% of the cases
diagnosed. The relationship between malignant melanoma and ultraviolet exposure is
not yet well understood, but it appears that both UVB and UVA are involved.
Experiments on fish suggest that 90 to 95% of malignant melanomas may be due to
UVA and visible radiation whereas experiments on opossums suggest a larger role for
UVB. Because of this uncertainty, it is difficult to estimate the impact of ozone depletion
on melanoma incidence. One study showed that a 10% increase in UVB radiation was
associated with a 19% increase in melanomas for men and 16% for women. A study of
people in Punta Arenas, at the southern tip of Chile, showed a 56% increase in
melanoma and a 46% increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer over a period of seven
years, along with decreased ozone and increased UVB levels.

3. Cortical Cataracts -- Studies are suggestive of an association between ocular

cortical cataracts and UV-B exposure, using crude approximations of exposure and
various cataract assessment techniques. A detailed assessment of ocular exposure to
UV-B was carried out in a study on Chesapeake Bay Watermen, where increases in
average annual ocular exposure were associated with increasing risk of cortical opacity.
In this highly exposed group of predominantly white males, the evidence linking cortical
opacities to sunlight exposure was the strongest to date. However, subsequent data
from a population-based study in Beaver Dam, WI suggested the risk may be confined
to men. In the Beaver Dam study, the exposures among women were lower than
exposures among men, and no association was seen. Moreover, there were no data
linking sunlight exposure to risk of cataract in African Americans, although other eye
diseases have different prevalences among the different racial groups, and cortical
opacity appears to be higher in African Americans compared with whites.

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4. Increased Tropospheric Ozone -- Increased surface UV leads to increased
tropospheric ozone. Ground-level ozone is generally recognized to be a health risk, as
ozone is toxic due to its strong oxidant properties. At this time, ozone at ground level is
produced mainly by the action of UV radiation on combustion gases from vehicle
exhausts.

Effects on crops

An increase of UV radiation would be expected to affect crops. A number of

economically important species of plants, such as rice, depend on cyanobacteria
residing on their roots for the retention of nitrogen. Cyanobacteria are sensitive to UV
light and they would be affected by its increase.

Ozone depletion and global warming

Although they are often interlinked in the mass media, the connection between global
warming and ozone depletion is not strong. There are five areas of linkage:

Radiative forcing from various greenhouse gases and other sources.

 The same CO2 radiative forcing that produces near-surface global warming is
expected to cool the stratosphere. This cooling, in turn, is expected to produce a
relative increase in polar ozone (O3) depletion and the frequency of ozone holes.
 Conversely, ozone depletion represents a radiative forcing of the climate system.
There are two opposing effects: Reduced ozone causes the stratosphere to
absorb less solar radiation, thus cooling the stratosphere while warming the
troposphere; the resulting colder stratosphere emits less long-wave radiation
downward, thus cooling the troposphere. Overall, the cooling dominates; the
IPCC concludes that "observed stratospheric O3 losses over the past two
decades have caused a negative forcing of the surface-troposphere system" of
about −0.15 ± 0.10 watts per square meter (W/m²).

 One of the strongest predictions of the greenhouse effect is that the stratosphere
will cool. Although this cooling has been observed, it is not trivial to separate the
21
 effects of changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases and ozone
depletion since both will lead to cooling. However, this can be done by numerical
stratospheric modeling. Results from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory show that above 20 km
(12.4 miles), the greenhouse gases dominate the cooling.

 Ozone depleting chemicals are also greenhouse gases. The increases in

concentrations of these chemicals have produced 0.34 ± 0.03 W/m² of radiative
forcing, corresponding to about 14% of the total radiative forcing from increases
in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases.

 The long term modeling of the process, its measurement, study, design of
theories and testing take decades to both document, gain wide acceptance, and
ultimately become the dominant paradigm. Several theories about the destruction
of ozone, were hypothesized in the 1980s, published in the late 1990s, and are
currently being proven. Dr Drew Schindell, and Dr Paul Newman, NASA
Goddard, proposed a theory in the late 1990s, using a SGI Origin 2000
supercomputer, that modeled ozone destruction, accounted for 78% of the ozone
destroyed. Further refinement of that model, accounted for 89% of the ozone
destroyed, but pushed back the estimated recovery of the ozone hole from 75
years to 150 years. (An important part of that model is the lack of stratospheric
flight due to depletion of fossil fuels.)

Misconceptions about ozone depletion

CFCs are "too heavy" to reach the stratosphere

It is sometimes stated that since CFC molecules are much heavier than nitrogen or
oxygen, they cannot reach the stratosphere in significant quantities. But atmospheric
gases are not sorted by weight; the forces of wind (turbulence) are strong enough to
fully intermix gases in the atmosphere. CFCs are heavier than air, but just like argon,

22
krypton and other heavy gases with a long lifetime, they are uniformly distributed
throughout the turbosphere and reach the upper atmosphere.

Man-made chlorine is insignificant compared to natural sources

Another objection occasionally voiced is that It is generally agreed that natural sources
of tropospheric chlorine (volcanoes, ocean spray, etc.) are four to five orders of
magnitude larger than man-made sources. While strictly true, tropospheric chlorine is
irrelevant; it is stratospheric chlorine that affects ozone depletion. Chlorine from ocean
spray is soluble and thus is washed out by rainfall before it reaches the stratosphere.
CFCs, in contrast, are insoluble and long-lived, which allows them to reach the
stratosphere. Even in the lower atmosphere there is more chlorine present in the form of
CFCs and related haloalkanes than there is in HCl from salt spray, and in the
stratosphere halocarbons dominate overwhelmingly. Only one of these halocarbons,
methyl chloride, has a predominantly natural source, and it is responsible for about 20
percent of the chlorine in the stratosphere; the remaining 80% comes from manmade
compounds.

23
Very large volcanic eruptions can inject HCl directly into the stratosphere, but direct
measurements have shown that their contribution is small compared to that of chlorine
from CFCs. A similar erroneous assertion is that soluble halogen compounds from the
volcanic plume of Mount Erebus on Ross Island, Antarctica are a major contributor to
the Antarctic ozone hole.

An ozone hole was first observed in 1956

G.M.B. Dobson (Exploring the Atmosphere, 2nd Edition, Oxford, 1968) mentioned that
when springtime ozone levels over Halley Bay were first measured in 1956, he was
surprised to find that they were ~320 DU, about 150 DU below spring levels, ~450 DU,
in the Arctic. These, however, were at this time the known normal climatological values
because no other antarctic ozone data were available. What Dobson describes is
essentially the baseline from which the ozone hole is measured: actual ozone hole
values are in the 150–100 DU range.

The discrepancy between the Arctic and Antarctic noted by Dobson was primarily a
matter of timing: during the Arctic spring ozone levels rose smoothly, peaking in April,
whereas in the Antarctic they stayed approximately constant during early spring, rising
abruptly in November when the polar vortex broke down.

The behavior seen in the Antarctic ozone hole is distinctly different. Instead of staying
constant, early springtime ozone levels suddenly drop from their already low winter
values, by as much as 50%, and normal values are not reached again until December.

If the theory were correct, the ozone hole should be above the sources of CFCs

CFCs are well mixed in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The reason the ozone
hole occurs above Antarctica is not because there are more CFCs there but because
the low temperatures due to the polar vortex allow polar stratospheric clouds to form.
There have been anomalous discoveries of significant, serious, localized "holes" above
other parts of the globe.

24
The "ozone hole" is a hole in the ozone layer

When the "ozone hole" forms, essentially all of the ozone in the lower stratosphere is
destroyed. The upper stratosphere is much less affected, however, so that the overall
amount of ozone over the continent declines by 50 percent or more. The ozone hole
does not go all the way through the layer; on the other hand, it is not a uniform 'thinning'
of the layer either. It is a "hole" in the sense of "a hole in the ground", that is, a
depression; not in the sense of "a hole in the windshield."

OZONE DEPLETION SOLUTIONS

 The discovery of the ozone depletion problem came as a great surprise.  Now,
action must be taken to ensure that the ozone layer is not destroyed.
 Because CFCs are so widespread and used in such a great variety of products,
limiting their use is hard.  Also, since many products already contain components
that use CFCs, it would be difficult if not impossible to eliminate those CFCs
already in existence.

 The CFC problem may be hard to solve because there are already great
quantities of CFCs in the environment.  CFCs would remain in the stratosphere
for another 100 years even if none were ever produced again.

 Despite the difficulties, international action has been taken to limit CFCs.  In the
Montreal Protocol, 30 nations worldwide agreed to reduce usage of CFCs and
encouraged other countries to do so as well.

 However, many environmentalists felt the treaty did "too little, too late", as the
Natural Resources Defense Council put it.  The treaty asked for CFC makers to
only eliminate half of their CFC production, making some people feel it was
inadequate.

25
 By the year 2000, the US and twelve nations in Europe have agreed to ban all
use and production of CFCs.  This will be highly significant, because these
countries produce three quarters of the CFCs in the world.

 Many other countries have signed treaties and written laws restricting the use of
CFCs.  Companies are finding substitutes for CFCs, and people in general are
becoming more aware of the dangers of ozone depletion.

26
 CHAPTER 2

ACID RAIN
INTRODUCTION

Acid rain is rain or any other form of precipitation that is unusually acidic, i.e. elevated
levels of hydrogen ions (low pH). It has harmful effects on plants, aquatic animals, and
infrastructure. Acid rain is mostly caused by emissions of compounds of sulfur, nitrogen,
and carbon which react with the water molecules in the atmosphere to produce acids.
However, it can also be caused naturally by the splitting of nitrogen compounds by the
energy produced by lightning strikes, or the release of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere
by phenomena of volcano eruptions.

Rain is slightly acidic because it contains dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2). Sulpher
dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen oxides (NOx) which are normally present in the air. Acid rain
contains more acidity than the normal value because of presence of acidions due to the
dissolution of these gases present in higher concentration. Acid rain, therefore, is the
direct consequence of air pollution caused by gaseous emissions from industrial
sources, burning of fuels (thermal plants, chimneys of brick-kilns or sugar mills.) and
vehicular emissions. It is not necessary that acid rain will occur locally near the sources
of air pollution. Due to the movement of air, acid rain may occur for away from the
source. For instance, U.K. contributes 26% of the acidic sulpher deposited in the
Netherlands, 23% in Norway and 12% in Sweden. Acid emissions arise naturally from
volcanoes, forest fires and biological decomposition, especially in the oceans. But their
contribution to a acid rain are SO2, NOx and to a lesser extent CO2 and HC1 gas. SO2
pollutions is mostly contributed by thermal power plants, refineries industry and NOx
form road transport, power stations and industry. The acid gas concentrations in the air

27
will vary according to location, time and weather conditions.

DEFINITION

"Acid rain" is a popular term referring to the deposition of wet (rain, snow, sleet, fog and
cloudwater, dew) and dry (acidifying particles and gases) acidic components. A more
accurate term is “acid deposition”.

Distilled water, which contains no carbon dioxide, has a neutral pH of 7. Liquids with a
pH less than 7 are acidic, and those with a pH greater than 7 are bases. “Clean” or
unpolluted rain has a slightly acidic pH of about 5.2, because carbon dioxide and water
in the air react together to form carbonic acid, a weak acid (pH 5.6 in distilled water), but
unpolluted rain also contains other chemicals.

H2O (l) + CO2 (g) → H2CO3 (aq)

Carbonic acid then can ionize in water forming low concentrations of hydronium and
carbonate ions:

2 H2O (l) + H2CO3 (aq) CO32− (aq) + 2 H3O+ (aq)

Acid deposition as an environmental issue would include additional acids to H2CO3.

28
HISTORY

Since the Industrial Revolution, emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides to the
atmosphere have increased. In 1852, Robert Angus Smith was the first to show the
relationship between acid rain and atmospheric pollution in Manchester, England.
Though acidic rain was discovered in 1852, it was not until the late 1960s that scientists
began widely observing and studying the phenomenon. The term "acid rain" was
generated in 1972. Canadian Harold Harvey was among the first to research a "dead"
lake. Public awareness of acid rain in the U.S increased in the 1970s after the New York
Times promulgated reports from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New
Hampshire of the myriad deleterious environmental effects demonstrated to result from
it.

Occasional pH readings in rain and fog water of well below 2.4 have been reported in
industrialized areas. Industrial acid rain is a substantial problem in Europe, China,
Russia and areas down-wind from them. These areas all burn sulfur-containing coal to
generate heat and electricity. The problem of acid rain not only has increased with
population and industrial growth, but has become more widespread. The use of tall
smokestacks to reduce local pollution has contributed to the spread of acid rain by
releasing gases into regional atmospheric circulation. Often deposition occurs a
29
considerable distance downwind of the emissions, with mountainous regions tending to
receive the greatest deposition (simply because of their higher rainfall). An example of
this effect is the low pH of rain (compared to the local emissions) which falls in
Scandinavia.

EMISSIONS OF CHEMICALS LEADING TO ACIDIFICATION

The most important gas which leads to acidification is sulfur dioxide. Emissions of
nitrogen oxides which are oxidized to form nitric acid are of increasing importance due
to stricter controls on emissions of sulfur containing compounds. 70 Tg(S) per year in
the form of SO2 comes from fossil fuel combustion and industry, 2.8 Tg(S) from wildfires
and 7-8 Tg(S) per year from volcanoes.

Natural phenomena

The principal natural phenomena that contribute acid-producing gases to the

atmosphere are emissions from volcanoes and those from biological processes that
occur on the land, in wetlands, and in the oceans. The major biological source of sulfur
containing compounds is dimethyl sulfide.

Acidic deposits have been detected in glacial ice thousands of years old in remote parts
of the globe.

Human activity

30
The coal-fired Gavin Power Plant in Cheshire, Ohio

The principal cause of acid rain is sulfur and nitrogen compounds from human sources,
such as electricity generation, factories, and motor vehicles. Coal power plants are one
of the most polluting. The gases can be carried hundreds of kilometres in the
atmosphere before they are converted to acids and deposited. In the past, factories had
short funnels to let out smoke, but this caused many problems locally; thus, factories
now have taller smoke funnels. However, dispersal from these taller stacks causes
pollutants to be carried farther, causing widespread ecological damage.

Chemical processes

Combustion of fuels creates sulfur dioxide and nitric oxides. They are converted into
sulfuric acid and nitric acid.

Gas phase chemistry

In the gas phase sulfur dioxide is oxidized by reaction with the hydroxyl radical via an
intermolecular reaction:

SO2 + OH· → HOSO2·

which is followed by:

HOSO2· + O2 → HO2· + SO3

In the presence of water, sulfur trioxide (SO3) is converted rapidly to sulfuric acid:

SO3 (g) + H2O (l) → H2SO4 (l)

Nitrogen dioxide reacts with OH to form nitric acid:

NO2 + OH· → HNO3

31
Chemistry in cloud droplets

When clouds are present, the loss rate of SO 2 is faster than can be explained by gas
phase chemistry alone. This is due to reactions in the liquid water droplets.

Hydrolysis

Sulfur dioxide dissolves in water and then, like carbon dioxide, hydrolyses in a series of
equilibrium reactions:

SO2 (g) + H2O SO2·H2O

SO2·H2O H+ + HSO3−

HSO3- H+ + SO32−

Oxidation

There are a large number of aqueous reactions that oxidize sulfur from S(IV) to S(VI),
leading to the formation of sulfuric acid. The most important oxidation reactions are with
ozone, hydrogen peroxide and oxygen (reactions with oxygen are catalyzed by iron and
manganese in the cloud droplets).

Acid deposition
Processes involved in acid deposition (SO 2 and NOx play a significant role in acid rain).

Wet deposition

Wet deposition of acids occurs when any form of precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) removes
acids from the atmosphere and delivers it to the Earth's surface. This can result from the
deposition of acids produced in the raindrops (see aqueous phase chemistry above) or
by the precipitation removing the acids either in clouds or below clouds. Wet removal of
both gases and aerosols are both of importance for wet deposition.

32
Dry deposition

Acid deposition also occurs via dry deposition in the absence of precipitation. This can
be responsible for as much as 20 to 60% of total acid deposition. This occurs when
particles and gases stick to the ground, plants or other surfaces.

ADVERSE EFFECTS

Acid deposition changes the chemistry of the environment. It affects water bodies such
as ponds and lakes, river and streams, and bays and estuaries by increasing their
acidity, in some cases to the point where aquatic animals and plants begin to die off.
The lowered pH may liberate metals bound in the minerals of the bedrock and soils
surrounding a waterbody, sometimes to a toxic effect.

33
Acid deposition damages vegetation as well. Scientists have observed leaf damage
attributable to acid rain that limits the plant's ability to grow and sustain itself. Damage to
forests has also been well documented; acid deposition reacts chemically with forest
soils, leaching away nutrients vital to tree growth while at the same time mobilizing toxic
metals in the soil.

While it is less well documented, some scientists have expressed a concern that acid
deposition may adversely affect land dwelling animals as well, through the mobilization
of metals in drinking water and through the uptake of metals by plants that are later
consumed by animals. It is likely that humans would be similarly affected. It is clear that
human health is compromised in those populations chronically exposed to airborne
concentrations of sulfates and nitrates found downwind of heavily industrialized areas.

Acid deposition damages man-made structures as well; limestone, marble, and

sandstone are susceptible to damage from acid deposition, as are metals, paints,
textiles and ceramics. Repairing the damage caused by acid rain to buildings and
monuments costs millions of dollars per year.

While it is true that acid deposition is a type and consequence of air pollution, its effects
are not evenly distributed. Geography, topography, meteorology, and the chemistry of
soils and bedrock all play a role in what the effect of acid deposition will be. Alkaline or
basic soils, for example, have some ability to resist a change in their pH due to the
buffering effect of certain minerals in their makeup; less alkaline soils have less ability to
resist a change. Similarly waterbodies situated on an alkaline bedrock is more resistant
to lowering its pH that is less alkaline bedrock.

Distance from the source of the air pollution plays a role in the rate at which acid
deposition occurs, as do prevailing wind direction and elevation. It is known for example
that the eastern half of North America has been more heavily damaged by acid
deposition than has the western half; it is also true that (in general) the most severe
damage in the east has occurred to forests and waterbodies at higher elevations.

Clean Air Act

34
Public concern about the environment, and about air pollution as a public health issue
led to the passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970. By the end of the 1980s the adverse
effects of acid deposition had been so well documented that in 1990 specific
amendments were added to the Clean Air Act to reduce acid deposition.

Still, there is reason to be optimistic. Studies suggest that it is possible for eco-systems
damaged by acid deposition to recover. The rate at which recovery occurs and the
extent to which the recovery happens is dependent upon the magnitude of the
reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and the time it
takes to achieve these emission reductions. For much of the northeastern U.S., it has
been estimated that upwards to an 80 percent reduction in utility emissions of sulfur
dioxide (SO2) (beyond those called for under Title IV) and the implementation of
controls for nitrogen oxides (NOx) will be required for eco-system recovery. Even with
these emission reductions, substantial eco-system recovery may not occur for another
25 years or more.

Critical Loads

The term 'critical load' implies a tipping point, or threshold. Most generally, the critical
load may be defined as the maximum load that a system can tolerate before failing. As
applied to environmental issues, however, critical load usually refers to exposure to
pollutants. An environmental critical load is an estimate of the level of exposure to one
or more pollutants below which no harmful effects are known to occur to specified
elements within an ecosystem.

The use of critical loads within the context of air quality management is premised on the
notion that the effectiveness air quality policy is reflected in ecosystem impacts. The
critical load concept is uniquely well suited toward informing air quality policy because
its receptor-based approach takes into account both the spatial and topographical
variables of atmospheric deposition. As it applies to the atmospheric deposition of acid
forming compounds then, a critical load is that level of exposure to sulfur and nitrogen
compounds below which no harmful effects are known to occur within a specified
environment (or ecosystem). The approach used to identify critical loads for sulfur and

35
nitrogen in Maine's forest ecosystem is an ecological assessment based on an overall
(steady-state) ecosystem budget for nutrient cations of calcium (Ca 2+ ), magnesium
(Mg 2+ ), and potassium (K + ). This budget exists within a dynamic system of nutrient
inputs, exports, and recycling.

In its simplest terms, the inputs to the nutrient budget for the Maine forest ecosystem
include the addition of the nutrients Ca, Mg, and K through atmospheric deposition; acid
forming compounds of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) are also introduced through
deposition. Additional inputs of Ca, Mg, and K result from the chemical weathering of
the bedrock and soils.

The overall ecosystem budget is based upon the relative values of the inputs to and
exports from the system. A condition where nutrient inputs exceed exports suggests
that a sufficient state of biologic capacity exists for an ecosystem. Conversely, a
condition where nutrient exports exceed inputs suggests a net nutrient deficit and
increasing soil acidification; conditions ultimately unsustainable for a ecosystem over
the long term. Many studies have demonstrated that inadequate nutrient levels lead to
poor forest health and reduced growth rates.

This chart shows that not all fish, shellfish, or the insects that they eat can tolerate the
same amount of acid; for example, frogs can tolerate water that is more acidic (i.e., has
a lower pH) than trout.

36
Acid rain has been shown to have adverse impacts on forests, freshwaters and soils,
killing insect and aquatic life-forms as well as causing damage to buildings and having
impacts on human health.

EFFECTS OF ACID RAIN

The most important effects are: damage to freshwater aquatic life, damage of
vegetation and damage to buildings and material.

Damage to aquatic life

The main impact of fresh water acidification is a reduction in diversity and populations of
fresh water species. The effect on soil and rock will depend upon the in situ capacity
37
called ‘buffering capacity’ to neutralize the acids. The soil organisms are killed in acid
rain where soils have limited buffering capacity. The acidic leaf litter in forest areas adds
to the nutrient leaching effects of acid rain. This scavenging from cloud increases the
amount of pollution deposited. Trees are quite effective in intercepting the air borne
pollutants than other types of upland vegetation. In the areas of high acid deposition
and poor buffering in the lakes, a PH less than 5 has become common. At PH 5, fish life
and frogs begin to disappear. By PH 4, 5, virtually all aquatic life has gone. Acid rain
releases metals particularly aluminium-from the soil, which can build up in lake water to
levels that are toxic to fish and other organisms. A decline in fish and amphibian
population will affect the food chain of birds and mammals that depend on them for
food.

Surface waters and aquatic animals

Both the lower pH and higher aluminum concentrations in surface water that occur as a
result of acid rain can cause damage to fish and other aquatic animals. At pHs lower
than 5 most fish eggs will not hatch and lower pHs can kill adult fish. As lakes and rivers
become more acidic biodiversity is reduced. Acid rain has eliminated insect life and
some fish species, including the brook trout in some lakes, streams, and creeks in
geographically sensitive areas, such as the Adirondack Mountains of the United States.
However, the extent to which acid rain contributes directly or indirectly via runoff from
the catchment to lake and river acidity (i.e., depending on characteristics of the
surrounding watershed) is variable. The United States Environmental Protection
Agency's (EPA) website states: "Of the lakes and streams surveyed, acid rain caused
acidity in 75 percent of the acidic lakes and about 50 percent of the acidic streams".

Damage to Trees and Plants

For some years there has been concern about the apparent deterioration of trees and
other vegetation. It is not easy to establish the cause of damage: pollution, drought,
frost, pests and forst management methods can all affect tree health. SO2 has a direct
toxic effect on trees and in parts of central Europe for example where SO2 levels are
very high, extensive areas of forest have been damaged or destroyed. Acid deposition
38
may combine with other factors to affect tree health; for instance by making trees more
susceptible to attack by pests, or by acidifying soils which may cause loss of essential
nutrients such as magnesium, thus impairing tree growth. Nitrogen and sulphur are both
plant nutrients and deposition can upset the balance of natural plant communities by
encouraging the growth of other plant species. Secondary pollutants like ozone are also
known to exacerbate the effects of acid deposition.

Forests and other vegetation

Adverse effects may be indirectly related to acid rain, like the acid's effects on soil or
high concentration of gaseous precursors to acid rain. High altitude forests are
especially vulnerable as they are often surrounded by clouds and fog which are more
acidic than rain.

Other plants can also be damaged by acid rain, but the effect on food crops is
minimized by the application of lime and fertilizers to replace lost nutrients. In cultivated
areas, limestone may also be added to increase the ability of the soil to keep the pH
stable, but this tactic is largely unusable in the case of wilderness lands. When calcium
is leached from the needles of red spruce, these trees become less cold tolerant and
exhibit winter injury and even death.

Damage to Buildings and Materials

All historic buildings suffer damage and decay with time. Natural weathering causes
some of this but there is no doubt that air pollution, particularly SO2, also plays an
important part. SO2 penetrated porous stones such as limestone and is converted to
calcium sulphate, which causes gradual crumbling. Most building damage happens in
urban areas where there are many SO2 emitters (domestic chimneys, factories and
heating plant). The introduction of the Clean Air Acts and the replacement of coal fires
by gas and electricity has greatly reduced sulphur dioxide levels in urban areas. Other
materials badly affected by pollutant gases include marble, stained glass, most metals
and paint. Poorly set or fractured concrete may also allow sulphates to penetrate and
corrode the steel reinforcement inside.
39
Soils

Soil biology and chemistry can be seriously damaged by acid rain. Some microbes are
unable to tolerate changes to low pHs and are killed. The enzymes of these microbes
are denatured (changed in shape so they no longer function) by the acid. The
hydronium ions of acid rain also mobilize toxins such as aluminium, and leach away
essential nutrients and minerals such as magnesium.

2 H+ (aq) + Mg2+ (clay) 2 H+ (clay) + Mg2+ (aq)

Soil chemistry can be dramatically changed when base cations, such as calcium and
magnesium, are leached by acid rain thereby affecting sensitive species, such as sugar
maple (Acer saccharum).

Human health

Scientists have suggested direct links to human health. Fine particles, a large fraction of
which are formed from the same gases as acid rain (sulfur dioxide and nitrogen
dioxide), have been shown to cause illness and premature deaths such as cancer and
other diseases.

Other adverse effects

Effect of acid rain on statues and memorable buildings like Taj-Mahal in India

Acid rain can also cause damage to certain building materials and historical
monuments. This results when the sulfuric acid in the rain chemically reacts with the

40
calcium compounds in the stones (limestone, sandstone, marble and granite) to create
gypsum, which then flakes off.

CaCO3 (s) + H2SO4 (aq) CaSO4 (aq) + CO2 (g) + H2O (l)

This result is also commonly seen on old gravestones where the acid rain can cause the
inscription to become completely illegible. Acid rain also causes an increased rate of
oxidation for metals, and in particular copper and bronze. Visibility is also reduced by
sulfate and nitrate aerosols and particles in the atmosphere.

AFFECTED AREAS

Particularly badly affected places around the globe include most of Europe (particularly
Scandinavia with many lakes with acidic water containing no life and many trees dead)
many parts of the United States (states like New York are very badly affected) and
South Western Canada. Other affected areas include the South Eastern coast of China
and Taiwan.

POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS IN THE FUTURE

Places like much of South Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand), Western South
Africa (the country), Southern India and Sri Lanka and even West Africa (countries like
Ghana, Togo and Nigeria) could all be prone to acidic rainfall in the future.

REDUCING ACID POLLUTION

Technical solutions

In the United States, many coal-burning power plants use Flue gas desulfurization
(FGD) to remove sulfur-containing gases from their stack gases. An example of FGD is
the wet scrubber which is commonly used in the U.S. and many other countries. A wet
scrubber is basically a reaction tower equipped with a fan that extracts hot smoke stack
gases from a power plant into the tower. Lime or limestone in slurry form is also injected
into the tower to mix with the stack gases and combine with the sulfur dioxide present.

41
The calcium carbonate of the limestone produces pH-neutral calcium sulfate that is
physically removed from the scrubber. That is, the scrubber turns sulfur pollution into
industrial sulfates.

In some areas the sulfates are sold to chemical companies as gypsum when the purity
of calcium sulfate is high. In others, they are placed in landfill. However, the effects of
acid rain can last for generations, as the effects of pH level change can stimulate the
continued leaching of undesirable chemicals into otherwise pristine water sources,
killing off vulnerable insect and fish species and blocking efforts to restore native life.

Automobile emissions control reduces emissions of nitrogen oxides from motor

vehicles.

Sulphur Dioxide

The sulphur which is present in nearly all fossil fuels combines with oxygen when the
fuel is burnt and is released into the atmosphere as SO2 gas. These emissions can be
reduced by measures taken before, during, or after the combustion process.

One approach is to use fuels which naturally have little sulphur in them. The sulphur
content of coal can vary considerably. Some fuels may be treated to reduce their
sulphur content, but effective treatment is expensive. Demand for low sulphur fuels is
increasing as more countries develop programmes to reduce sulphur pollution, so they
are becoming more expensive. During combustion it is possible to reduce the eventual
emissions of SO2 by the introduction of a sorbent such as limestone. The potential for
sulphur reduction by this approach depends on the type of furnace or boiler. After
combustion, sulphur can be removed from flue gases or ‘scrubbed’. This process is
known as the flue gas desulphurization (FGD). In most FGD system a mixture of
limestone and water is sprayed into the flue gas. The SO2 is converted to gypsum
(calcium sulphate), which can be used in the manufacture of plaster products. However,
FGD systems of this type are expensive and use considerable amounts of limestone. If
all power stations were fitted with FGD, gypsum production would exceed requirements,
leading to a waste disposal problem. Although such a programme would increase
42
limestone extraction by about 5%, there would be a useful reduction in gypsum
quarrying. An alternative to limestone FGD systems is the regenerative FGD approach
in which SO2 is captured by a substance which can be recycled. Sulphur or sulphuric
acid is obtained as a by-product and can be used in the chemical industry. Again, there
are limits to the amount of by-product which industry can use.

Although FGD can reduce sulphur emissions by up to 90%, such systems use extra
energy and, therefore, increase emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2.

Nitrogen Oxides

NOx is produced partly from the oxidation of nitrogen contained in the fuel and partly as
a result of high temperature and pressure combustion, which oxidizes nitrogen in the
air. Furnace burners can be changed to reduce outputs of NOx by up to 40% (low-NOx
burners). NOx in flue gas can be reduced by adding ammonia and passing it over a
catalyst to produce nitrogen and water. This process is called selective catalytic
reduction (SCR) and can reduce NOx from combustion plant by 85%, NOx produced by
cars can also be treated by using catalysts; fitting a catalytic converter to the exhaust
system reduces NOx emissions by up to 90%, although it may increase emissions of
CO2.

Other Options

Since most acid pollution comes from burning fossil fuels, one way of reducing
emissions is to reduce the overall demand for energy by encouraging energy
conservation and improving the efficiency of electricity generation. Another option is to
develop non-fossil fuel energy sources such as nuclear power or renewable energy
(solar, wind, tidal power, etc.) However these have their own environmental problems
which must be balanced against those of fossil fuels.

43
International treaties

A number of international treaties on the long range transport of atmospheric pollutants

have been agreed e.g. Sulphur Emissions Reduction Protocol under the Convention on
Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Emissions trading

In this regulatory scheme, every current polluting facility is given or may purchase on an
open market an emissions allowance for each unit of a designated pollutant it emits.
Operators can then install pollution control equipment, and sell portions of their
emissions allowances they no longer need for their own operations, thereby recovering
some of the capital cost of their investment in such equipment. The intention is to give
operators economic incentives to install pollution controls.

The first emissions trading market was established in the United States by enactment of
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. The overall goal of the Acid Rain Program
established by the Act is to achieve significant environmental and public health benefits
through reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), the
primary causes of acid rain. To achieve this goal at the lowest cost to society, the
program employs both regulatory and market based approaches for controlling air
pollution.

44
 CHAPTER 3

CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of

time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average
weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for
example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a
specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change

usually refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic
climate change, more generally known as global warming.

45
For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data
sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the
past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Causes

Factors that can shape climate are climate forcings. These include such processes as
variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and
continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of
climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some
parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in
reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system
can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local
patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation. [1]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore
influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in
controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in
determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is
the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct
mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean
dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice
cover. Earlier, during the Carboniferous period, plate tectonics may have triggered the
large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation. Geologic evidence points to a
"megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea,
and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conducive
to the establishment of monsoons.

46
More locally, topography can influence climate. The existence of mountains (as a
product of plate tectonics through mountain-building) can cause orographic
precipitation. Humidity generally decreases and diurnal temperature swings generally
increase with increasing elevation. Mean temperature and the length of the growing
season also decrease with increasing elevation. This, along with orographic
precipitation, is important for the existence of low-latitude alpine glaciers and the varied
flora and fauna along at different elevations in montane ecosystems.

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans
on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than
they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate
is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents and/or island arcs.

Solar output

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of
sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-
term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Early in Earth's history the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. With
the same atmospheric composition as exists today, liquid water should not have existed
on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the
Hadean and Archean eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox.
Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much
higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist Over the following
47
approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric
composition changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere being the most notable
alteration. The luminosity of the sun will continue to increase as it follows the main
sequence. These changes in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a
red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant
phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle and
longer-term modulations. The 11-year sunspot cycle produces low-latitude warming and
high-latitude cooling over limited areas of statistical significance in the stratosphere with
an amplitude of approximately 1.5°C. But although "variability associated with the 11-yr
solar cycle has a significant influence on stratospheric temperatures. ...there is still no
consensus on the exact magnitude and spatial structure". These stratospheric variations
are consistent with the idea that excess equatorial heating can drive thermal winds. In
the near-surface troposphere, there is only a small change in temperature (on the order
of a tenth of a degree, and only statistically significant in limited areas underneath the
peaks in stratospheric zonal wind speed) due to the 11-year solar cycle. Solar intensity
variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for
some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's
energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is
happening within the sun as it ages and evolves, with some studies pointing toward
solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming

Orbital variations

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight
reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very
little change to the area-averaged annually-averaged sunshine; but there can be strong
changes in the geographical and seasonal distrubution. The three types of orbital
variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of
rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch
cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to
48
glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation with the advance and retreat of the
Sahara and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

Volcanism

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to
its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic
processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century,
and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's
surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the
second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century (after the 1912 eruption of
Novarupta) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about
0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a
Summer. Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few
times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time
periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting
the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According
to the US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate
more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.

Ocean variability

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

49
The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to
a few decades) such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal
oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate
variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean
processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by
carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term
redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

Human influences

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In some cases
the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (for
example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), whilst in other instances it is less
clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for
many years. Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity
is very likely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the
past several decades.[24] Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto ways to
reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already
occurred.

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO 2 levels due to

emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the
atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone
depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they
play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate,
microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to
reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature
are available beginning from the mid-late 1800s. For earlier periods, most of the
evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators
50
that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea level change,
and glacial geology.

Historical & Archaeological evidence

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in

settlement and agricultural patterns. Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical
documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects
have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.

Glaciers

Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing when
climate cools (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating
when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink, both contributing to natural variability
and amplifying externally forced changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled
since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation
has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area
of approximately 240,000 km2 and, in preliminary estimates, for the recording of the
remaining ice cover estimated to be around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring
Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this
data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong
glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s,
and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[31] Mass balance data indicate 17
consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including organic
matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which a glacier advanced
and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can
be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit
may also be precisely ascertained.

51
Vegetation

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change
in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may
result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the
subsequent sequestration of airborne CO 2. Larger, faster or more radical changes,
however, may well] result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in
certain circumstances

Ice cores

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be
used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air
trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO 2 variations of the atmosphere from
the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice
cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO 2 over many millennia, and
continue to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and
modern atmospheric conditions.

Dendroclimatology

Dendroclimatology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine past climate
variations. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst
thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing conditions.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen.

Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary
under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive
shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a
very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different

52
sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant
communities; which are dependent on climate conditions.

Insects

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of
beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage
of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia,
knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the
sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.

Sea level change

Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated
using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term
average. More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately
determined satellite orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea
level change.

COPENHAGEN CLIMATE COUNCIL

The Copenhagen Climate Council is a global collaboration between international

business and science founded by the leading independent think tank in Scandinavia,
Monday Morning, based in Copenhagen. The councilors of the Copenhagen Climate
Council have come together to create global awareness of the importance of the UN
Climate Summit (COP15) in Copenhagen, December 2009, and to ensure technical and
public support and assistance to global decision makers when agreeing on a new
climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol from 1997.

Organization

The Copenhagen Climate Council was founded in 2007 by Erik Rasmussen, Founder,
Copenhagen Climate Council; CEO and Editor-in-Chief in Scandinavia, Monday
Morning, head-quartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
53
Purpose

The purpose of the Copenhagen Climate Council is to create global awareness of the
importance of the UN Climate Summit (COP15) in Copenhagen, December 2009.
Leading up to this pivotal UN meeting, the Copenhagen Climate Council works on
presenting innovative yet achievable solutions to climate change, as well as assess
what is required to make a new global treaty effective. The Council will seek to promote
constructive dialogue between government and business, so that when the world's
political leaders and negotiators meet in Copenhagen, they will do so armed with the
very best arguments for establishing a treaty that can be supported by global business.
By promoting and demonstrating innovative, positive, and meaningful business
leadership and ideas, the Copenhagen Climate Council aims to demonstrate that
achieving an effective global climate treaty is not only possible, but necessary. The
strategy is built upon the following principles:

 Creating international awareness of the importance of the Copenhagen UN

Climate Summit and the successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol.
 Promoting constructive dialogue between government, business, and science.

 Inspiring global business leaders by demonstrating that tackling climate change

also has the potential to create huge opportunities for innovation and economic
growth.

Membership

Copenhagen Climate Council comprises 30 global climate leaders representing

business, science, and public policy from all parts of the world.

 Business leaders are selected to represent global companies and innovative

entrepreneurs, who, through their actions, reveal that sustainable, climate-
responsible business is both necessary and profitable.
 Scientists are gathered to ensure that the work of the Council is underpinned by
rigorous analysis.

54
  Policy makers with experience in public policy are included in the Council to
ensure that the work is informed by knowledge of what is required to assist high-
level, complex policy negotiations.

Activities

The central aim of the Copenhagen Climate Council is to create global awareness to the
urgency of reaching a global agreement on how to tackle climate change at the UN
Climate Conference in Copenhagen, December 2009. To achieve this end, the
Copenhagen Climate Council provides a Web 2.0 climate website – 'The Climate
Community' – which features latest climate news, intelligence, solutions and points of
view, an online climate community, as well as the rest of the Copenhagen Climate
Council activities, such as the 'World Business Summit on Climate Change'; launching
the 'Thought Leadership Series'; launching the 'Climate LIFE' film, book, and digital
exhibition; co-hosting with CITRIS the scientific conference 'Unlocking the Climate
Code: Innovation in Climate and Energy'; and the Poznan side event 'Business
Requirements of a Post-2012 Climate Treaty'. Recently, the Copenhagen Climate
Council has also hosted a Business Roundtable in Beijing.

The Climate Community

The Climate Community is the official website of the Copenhagen Climate Council. The
website is based on Web 2.0 principles, and hooks the user up with the worlds leading
climate stakeholders and offers possibility for the user to give voice and influence the
global climate agenda. The Climate Community aims to bring the latest and most
relevant news, insights, and intelligence that equips the user to navigate the climate
challenges and turn risks into opportunities. The Climate Community features an
extensive news section with Top Stories, Daily News Summaries, Points of Views, and
a Weekly Roundup, searchable by date, region and sector.

Exclusive news features so far include interviews with U.S. Energy Secretary Steve
Chu, UN Climate Chief Yvo de Boer, the Danish Climate minister Connie Hedegaard,
IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri, Professor Daniel Kammen, Lars Josefsson, CEO of
55
Vattenfall. The Climate Community also features regular updates on the COP15
negotiation process and important upcoming events. The unique content on Community
also includes selected and in-depth descriptions of innovative business solutions. A
valuable feature on the Community is the Climate Intelligence Archive, which selects
and list key international policies, research reports, government agencies, NGOs,
inspiring media sources, and upcoming climate events.

The Climate Community also hosts an online Virtual Summit, which is an integral part of
the World Business Summit on Climate Change to take place in May 2009. The Virtual
Summit will facilitate knowledge sharing and collaboration, as well as be a testing
ground for new ideas and partnerships through interactive web 2.0 tools.

World Business Summit on Climate Change

The World Business Summit on Climate Change takes place six months prior to the
pivotal UN climate change conference (COP15) in Copenhagen, December 2009. The
summit brings together business chief executives with the world's top scientists,
economists, civil society, media leaders, government representatives and other leading
thinkers to put forward recommendations for the next international framework on climate
change to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. Among the prominent participants so
far are Al Gore, Chairman of Generation Investment Management; Anders Fogh
Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Denmark; and Sir Richard Branson, Founder and CEO of
the Virgin Group.

At the summit, chief executives will discuss how business can help solve the climate
crisis through innovative business models, new partnerships and the development of
low carbon technologies. They will send a message to the negotiating governments on
how to remove barriers and create incentives for implementation of new solutions in a
post-Kyoto. The results of the World Business Summit on Climate Change will be
presented to the Danish government, host of COP15, and to world leaders negotiating
the terms of the next international climate treaty.

56
The LIFE Digital exhibition

The LIFE digital Exhibition is intended to demonstrate what makes Climate LIFE
possible. When launched on the web, it will explore the delivery model necessary to
achieve the vision of Climate LIFE. Looking at the political, economic and cultural
systems as well as the technological and biological process that will underpin low
carbon living in the future, the exhibition will present a variety of practical solutions and
their implications, highlighting the state of the art in movement, energy production and
efficient consumption, water and waste management etc. The exhibition aims to use the
latest social software advances and interactive tools to illustrate the challenges, how
they affect people, and the possibilities for getting involved.

Business Requirements of a Post-2012 Climate Treaty

On December 8, 2008, the Copenhagen Climate Council hosted an official side event at
the UN COP14 Summit on Climate Change in Poznan, Poland from December 1-10,
2008. The theme was Business Requirements to a Post-2012 Climate Treaty. At the
event, Council representatives from business and science presented their key principles
for a new treaty. The thoughts presented at the event will feed into the development of
the final recommendations delivered by international business leaders at the World
Business Summit on Climate Change, to be held in Copenhagen in May, 2009.

The speakers delivered their views on what they would toast to in Copenhagen. They
included: Copenhagen Climate Council Chairman Tim Flannery; Robert Purves from
World Wildlife Fund International; Jerry Stokes, president of Suntech Europe; Dr.
Zhengrong Shi, Founder and CEO of Suntech; Steve Harper of Intel; Susanne Stormer
from Novo Nordisk; Michael Zarin of Vestas; and Thomas Becker, the lead climate
negotiator for the Danish government that will host the UN COP15 climate summit in
December, 2009. The session was moderated by Nick Rowley, strategic director at
Copenhagen Climate Council.

57
2009 UNITED NATIONS CLIMATE
CHANGE CONFERENCE

United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15)

58
INTRODUCTION

The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held at the Bella Center
in Copenhagen, Denmark, between 7 December and 18 December. The conference
included the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and the 5th Meeting of the Parties (COP/MOP 5) to the
Kyoto Protocol. According to the Bali Road Map, a framework for climate change
mitigation beyond 2012 was to be agreed there.

The conference was preceded by the Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and
Decisions scientific conference, which took place in March 2009 and was also held at
the Bella Center. The negotiations began to take a new format when in May 2009 UN
Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon attended the World Business Summit on Climate
Change in Copenhagen, organised by the Copenhagen Climate Council (COC), where
he requested that COC councillors attend New York's Climate Week at the Summit on
Climate Change on 22 September and engage with heads of government on the topic of
the climate problem.

Connie Hedegaard was president of the conference until December 16, 2009, handing
over the chair to Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in the final stretch of the
conference, during negotiations between heads of state and government. On Friday 18
December, the final day of the conference, international media reported that the climate
talks were "in disarray". Media also reported that in lieu of a summit collapse, solely a
"weak political statement" was anticipated at the conclusion of the conference.

The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa
on December 18, and judged a "meaningful agreement" by the United States
government. It was "recognised", but not "agreed upon", in a debate of all the
participating countries the next day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document
recognised that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present and that

59
actions should be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2°C. The
document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitments
for reducing CO2 emissions.Leaders of industrialised countries, including Barack
Obama and Gordon Brown, were pleased with this agreement but many leaders of
other countries and non-governmental organisations were opposed to it.

Background and lead-up

Negotiating position of the European Union

On 28 January 2009, the European Commission released a position paper, "Towards a

comprehensive climate agreement in Copenhagen."The position paper "addresses
three key challenges: targets and actions; financing [of "low-carbon development and
adaptation"]; and building an effective global carbon market".

In order to demonstrate good example, the European Union had committed to

implementing binding legislation, even without a satisfactory deal in Copenhagen. Last
December, the European Union revised its carbon allowances system called the
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) designed for the post-Kyoto period (after 2013). This
new stage of the system aims at further reducing greenhouse gases emitted in Europe
in a binding way and at showing the commitments the EU had already done before the
Copenhagen meeting. To avoid carbon leakage—relocation of companies in other
regions not complying with similar legislation—the EU Commission will foresee that
sectors exposed to international competition, should be granted some free allocations of
CO2 emissions provided that they are at least at the same level of a benchmark. Other
sectors should buy such credits on an international market. Energy intensive industries
in Europe have advocated for this benchmark system in order to keep funds in
investment capacities for low carbon products rather than for speculations. The
European chemical industry claims here the need to be closer to the needs of citizens in
a sustainable way. To comply with such commitments for a low-carbon economy, this
requires competitiveness and innovations.

60
The French Minister for Ecology Jean-Louis Borloo pushes the creation of the Global
Environment Organisation as France's main institutional contribution, to offer a powerful
alternative to the UNEP.

Official pre-Copenhagen negotiation meetings

A draft negotiating text for finalisation at Copenhagen has been publicly released. It is
being discussed at a series of meetings before Copenhagen.

Bonn – second negotiating meeting

Delegates from 183 countries met in Bonn from 1 to 12 June 2009. The purpose was to
discuss key negotiating texts. These will serve as the basis for the international climate
change agreement at Copenhagen. At the conclusion the Ad Hoc Working Group under
the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) negotiating group was still far away from the emission
reduction range that has been set out by science to avoid the worst ravages of climate
change: a minus 25% to minus 40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. The AWG-
KP still needs to decide on the aggregate emission reduction target for industrialised
countries, along with individual targets for each country. Progress was made in gaining
clarification of the issues of concern to parties and including these concerns in the
updated draft of the negotiating text.

Seventh session

Bangkok

The first part of the seventh session of the AWG-LCA was held in Bangkok, Thailand,
from Monday, 28 September at the United Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) of the
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP),
Bangkok, Thailand.

Barcelona

61
The resumed session was held in Barcelona, Spain, from 2 to 6 November 2009.
Thereafter, the AWG-LCA will meet to conclude its work at its eighth session,
concurrently with the fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties which opened in
Copenhagen on 7 December 2009.

Listing of proposed actions

Proposed changes in absolute emissions

Area 1990→2020 Reference base

Japan −25%

EU −20 to −30%

Russia −20 to −25%

South Africa −18%

New Zealand −10 to −20%

Australia −4 to −24% CO2-e w/- LULUCF

Canada −3%

United States −1.3%

Brazil +5 to −1.8%

62
During the conference some countries stated what actions they were proposing to take
if a binding agreement was achieved. In the end, no such agreement was reached and
the actions will instead be debated in 2010. Listing by country or political union.
Sections in alphabetic order, table according to higher objectives.

Australia

To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world
agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.

To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 if there is an
agreement where major developing economies commit to substantially restrain
emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia.

To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 unconditionally.

It is clearly stated in proceedings from the Australian Senate and policy statements from
the government that the Australian emission reductions include land use, land-use
change and forestry (LULUCF) with the form of inclusion remaining undecided and
whilst acknowledging that they are subject to the forming of accounting guidelines from
this Copenhagen conference. In contention is the Australian Government's preference
for the removal of non-human induced LULUCF emissions – and perhaps their
abatement – from the account, such as from lightning induced bushfires and the
subsequent natural carbon sequestering regrowth.

Using Kyoto accounting guidelines, these proposals are equivalent to an emissions cut
of 24%, 14%, and 4% below 1990 levels by 2020 respectively. Raw use of UNFCCC
CO2e data including LULUCF as currently defined by the UNFCCC for the years 2000
(404.392 Tg CO2e) and 1990 (453.794 Tg CO2e) leads to apparent emissions cuts of
33% (303.294 Tg CO2e), 25% (343.733 Tg CO2e) and 15% (384.172 Tg CO2e)
respectively.

63
Brazil

To cut emissions by 38–42% below projected 2020 levels by that same year.

This is equivalent to a change to emissions to between 5% above and 1.8% below 1990
levels by 2020.

Canada

To cut carbon emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020. This is equivalent to
3% below 1990 levels by 2020.

The three most populous provinces disagree with the federal government goal and
announced more ambitious targets on their jurisdictions. Quebec, Ontario and British
Columbia announced respectively 20%, 15% and 14% reduction target below their 1990
levels while Alberta is expecting a 58% increase in emissions.

China

To cut emissions intensity by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2020.

European Union

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 if an

international agreement is reached committing other developed countries and the more
advanced developing nations to comparable emission reductions.

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 unconditionally.

India

To cut emissions intensity by 20–25% below 2005 levels by 2020.

Japan

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020.

64
New Zealand

To reduce emissions between 10% to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global
agreement is secured that limits carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2-e) to 450 ppm and
temperature increases to 2°C, effective rules on forestry, and New Zealand having
access to international carbon markets.

Russia

To reduce emissions between 20% to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global
agreement is reached committing other countries to comparable emission reductions.

Singapore

To reduce emissions by 16% by 2020, based on business-as-usual levels.

South Africa

To cut emissions by 34% below current levels by 2020. This is equivalent to an

absolute emissions cut of 18% below 1990 levels by 2020.

United States of America

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, 42% by 2030
and 83% by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.3% below 1990 levels by 2020, 31% by 2030
and 80% by 2050.

Technology measures

UNEP

At the fifth Magdeburg Environmental Forum held from 3 to 4 July 2008, in Magdeburg,
Germany, United Nations Environment Programme called for the establishment of
infrastructure for electric vehicles. At this international conference, 250 high-ranking
representatives from industry, science, politics and non-government organizations
65
discussed solutions for future road transportation under the motto of "Sustainable
Mobility– United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009|the Post-2012 CO2
Agenda".

Technology Action Programs

Technology Action Programs (TAPs) have been proposed as a means for organizing
future technology efforts under the UNFCCC. By creating programs for a set of
adaptation and mitigation technologies, the UNFCCC would send clear signals to the
private and finance sector, governments, research institutions as well as citizens of the
world looking for solutions to the climate problem. Potential focus areas for TAPs
include early warning systems, expansion of salinity-tolerant crops, electric vehicles,
wind and solar energy, efficient energy grid systems, and other technologies.

Technology roadmaps will address barriers to technology transfer, cooperative actions

on technologies and key economic sectors, and support implementation of Nationally
Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPAs).

Side Event on Technology Transfer

The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and the Department
of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) have been assigned the task of co-
convening a process to support UN system-wide coherence and international
cooperation on climate change-related technology development and transfer. This
COP15 Side Event will feature statements and input from the heads of UNDESA,
UNDP, GEF, WIPO, UNIDO, UNEP, IRENA as well as the UN Foundation. Relevant
topics such as the following will be among the many issues discussed:

 Technology Needs Assessments (TNA)

 The Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer

 UN-ENERGY

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  Regional Platforms and Renewable Energy Technologies

Related public actions

The Danish government and key industrial organizations have entered a public-private
partnership to promote Danish cleantech solutions. The partnership, Climate
Consortium Denmark, is an integrated part of the official portfolio of activities before,
during and after the COP15.

There is also a European Conference for the Promotion of Local Actions to Combat
Climate Change. The entire morning session on 25 September was devoted to the
Covenant of Mayors.

The Local Government Climate Lounge will be an advocacy and meeting space located
directly in the COP 15 building, at the heart of the negotiations.

Outcome

On December 18 after a day of frantic negotiations between heads of state, it was

announced that a "meaningful agreement" had been reached between the United
States, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil. The use of "meaningful" was viewed as
being political spin by an editorial in The Guardian. An unnamed US government official
was reported as stating that the deal was a "historic step forward" but was not enough
to prevent dangerous climate change in the future. However, the BBC's environment
correspondent stated: "While the White House was announcing the agreement, many
other – perhaps most other – delegations had not even seen it. A comment from a UK
official suggested the text was not yet final and the Bolivian delegation has already
complained about the way it was reached – 'anti-democratic, anti-transparent and
unacceptable'. With no firm target for limiting the global temperature rise, no
commitment to a legal treaty and no target year for peaking emissions, countries most
vulnerable to climate impacts have not got the deal they wanted."

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Early on Saturday 19 December, delegates approved a motion to "take note of the
Copenhagen Accord of December 18, 2009". However it was reported that it was not
yet clear whether the motion was unanimous, or what its legal implications are. The UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the US-backed climate deal as an "essential
beginning". It was unclear whether all 192 countries in attendance would also adopt the
deal. The Copenhagen Accord recognises the scientific case for keeping temperature
rises below 2°C, but does not contain commitments for reduced emissions that would
be necessary to achieve that aim. One part of the agreement pledges US$ 30  billion to
the developing world over the next three years, rising to US$ 100 billion per year by
2020, to help poor countries adapt to climate change. Earlier proposals, that would have
aimed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and cut CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2050 were
dropped. An agreement was also reached that would set up a deal to reduce
deforestation in return for cash from developed countries. The agreement made was
non-binding but U.S. President Obama said that countries could show the world their
achievements. He said that if they had waited for a binding agreement, no progress
would have been made.

Analysis and aftermath

Despite widely held expectations that the Copenhagen summit would produce a legally
binding treaty, the conference was plagued by negotiating deadlock and the
"Copenhagen Accord" is not legally enforceable. BBC environment analyst Roger
Harrabin attributed the failure of the summit to live up to expectations to a number of
factors including the recent global recession, and conservative domestic pressure in the
US and China.

The editorial of The Australian newspaper on December 21, 2009, blamed African
countries for turning Copenhagen into "a platform for demands that the world improve
the continent's standard of living" and claimed that "Copenhagen was about old-
fashioned anti-Americanism, not the environment".

68
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown accused a small number of nations of holding the
Copenhagen talks to ransom.

The Copenhagen Accord asks countries to submit emissions targets by the end of
January 2010, and paves the way for further discussions to occur at the 2010 UN
climate change conference in Mexico and the mid-year session in Bonn. However,
some commentators consider that "the future of the UN's role in international climate
deals is now in doubt."

CHAPTER 4
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 SEA LEVEL RISE
 
INTRODUCTION

Most of the world’s coastal cities were established during the last few millennia, a
period when global sea level has been near constant. Since the mid-19th century,
sea level has been rising, likely primarily as a result of human-induced climate
change. During the 20th century, sea level rose about 15-20 centimeters (roughly 1.5
to 2.0 mm/year), with the rate at the end of the century greater than over the early
part of the century. Satellite measurements taken over the past decade, however,
indicate that the rate of increase has jumped to about 3.1 mm/year, which is
significantly higher than the average rate for the 20th century . Projections suggest
that the rate of sea level rise is likely to increase during the 21st century, although
there is considerable controversy about the likely size of the increase. As explained
in the next section, this controversy arises mainly due to uncertainties about the
contributions to expect from the three main processes responsible for sea level rise:
thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and the loss of ice from the
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets .

Causes of sea level rise

70
Before describing the major factors contributing to climate change, it should be
understood that the melting back of sea ice (e.g., in the Arctic and the floating ice
shelves) will not directly contribute to sea level rise because this ice is already
floating on the ocean (and so already displacing its mass of water). However, the
melting back of this ice can lead to indirect contributions on sea level. For example,
the melting back of sea ice leads to a reduction in albedo (surface reflectivity) and
allows for greater absorption of solar radiation. More solar radiation being absorbed
will accelerate warming, thus increasing the melting back of snow and ice on land. In
addition, ongoing break up of the floating ice shelves will allow a faster flow of ice on
land into the oceans, thereby providing an additional contribution to sea level rise.

There are three major processes by which human-induced climate change directly
affects sea level. First, like air and other fluids, water expands as its temperature
increases (i.e., its density goes down as temperature rises). As climate change
increases ocean temperatures, initially at the surface and over centuries at depth, the
water will expand, contributing to sea level rise due to thermal expansion. Thermal
expansion is likely to have contributed to about 2.5 cm of sea level rise during the
second half of the 20th century, with the rate of rise due to this term having increased
to about 3 times this rate during the early 21st century. Because this contribution to
sea level rise depends mainly on the temperature of the ocean, projecting the
increase in ocean temperatures provides an estimate of future growth. Over the 21st
century, the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment projected that thermal expansion will lead to
sea level rise of about 17-28 cm (plus or minus about 50%). That this estimate is less
than would occur from a linear extrapolation of the rate during the first decade of the
21st century when all model projections indicate ongoing ocean warming has led to
concerns that the IPCC estimate may be too low.

A second, and less certain, contributor to sea level rise is the melting of glaciers and
ice caps. IPCC’s Fourth Assessment estimated that, during the second half of the
20th century, melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps led to about a 2.5 cm rise in
sea level. This is a higher amount than was caused by the loss of ice from the
71
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which added about 1 cm to the sea level. For the
21st century, IPCC’s Fourth Assessment projected that melting of glaciers and ice
caps will contribute roughly 10-12 cm to sea level rise, with an uncertainty of roughly
a third. This would represent a melting of roughly a quarter of the total amount of ice
tied up in mountain glaciers and small ice caps.

The third process that can cause sea level to rise is the loss of ice mass from
Greenland and Antarctica. Were all the ice on Greenland to melt, a process that
would likely take many centuries to millennia, sea level would go up by roughly 7
meters. The West Antarctic ice sheet holds about 5 m of sea level equivalent and is
particularly vulnerable as much of it is grounded below sea level; the East Antarctic
ice sheet, which is less vulnerable, holds about 55 m of sea level equivalent. The
models used to estimate potential changes in ice mass are, so far, only capable of
estimating the changes in mass due to surface processes leading to
evaporation/sublimation and snowfall and conversion to ice. In summarizing the
results of model simulations for the 21st century, IPCC reported that the central
estimates projected that Greenland would induce about a 2 cm rise in sea level
whereas Antarctica would, because of increased snow accumulation, induce about a
2 cm fall in sea level. That there are likely to be problems with these estimates,
however, has become clear with recent satellite observations, which indicate that
both Greenland and Antarctica are currently losing ice mass, and we are only in the
first decade of a century that is projected to become much warmer over its course.

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Overview of sea-level change

Local mean sea level (LMSL) is defined as the height of the sea with respect to a land
benchmark, averaged over a period of time (such as a month or a year) long enough
that fluctuations caused by waves and tidesare smoothed out. One must adjust
perceived changes in LMSL to account for vertical movements of the land, which can be
of the same order (mm/yr) as sea level changes. Some land movements occur because
of isostatic adjustment of the mantle to the melting of ice sheets at the end of the last
ice age. The weight of the ice sheet depresses the underlying land, and when the ice
melts away the land slowly rebounds. Atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local
ocean temperature changes also can affect LMSL.

“Eustatic” change (as opposed to local change) results in an alteration to the global sea
levels, such as changes in the volume of water in the world oceans or changes in the
volume of an ocean basin.

Short term and periodic changes

There are many factors which can produce short-term (a few minutes to 18.6 year )
changes in sea level.

Longer term changes

Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, leading to long-term changes in
eustatic sea level. The two primary influences are temperature (because the volume

73
of water depends on temperature), and the mass of water locked up on land and sea
as fresh water in rivers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and sea ice. Over much
longer geological timescales, changes in the shape of the oceanic basins and in
land/sea distribution will affect sea level.

OCEANS & SEA LEVEL RISE

Glaciers and ice caps

Each year about 8 mm (0.3 inch) of water from the entire surface of the oceans falls into
the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets as snowfall. If no ice returned to the oceans,
sea level would drop 8 mm every year. To a first approximation, the same amount of
water appeared to return to the ocean in icebergs and from ice melting at the edges.
Scientists previously had estimated which is greater, ice going in or coming out, called
the mass balance, important because it causes changes in global sea level. High-
precision gravimetry from satellites in low-noise flight has since determined Greenland
74
is losing millions of tons per year, in accordance with loss estimates from ground
measurement. Some estimates range up to 240 km^3 per year in recent years.

Ice shelves float on the surface of the sea and, if they melt, to first order they do not
change sea level. Likewise, the melting of the northern polar ice cap which is composed
of floating pack ice would not significantly contribute to rising sea levels. Because they
are fresh, however, their melting would cause a very small increase in sea levels, so
small that it is generally neglected. It can however be argued that if ice shelves melt it is
a precursor to the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.

 If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and

the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting
of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise, and melting of
the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise. The collapse of the
grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5-6
m.
 The interior of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is sufficiently high (and
therefore cold) enough that direct melt there cannot cause them to melt in a time-frame
less than several millennia; therefore it is likely that they will not, through melting of the
interior, contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century. They can,
however, do so through acceleration in flow and enhanced iceberg calving. Also, melt of
the fringes of the ice caps could be significant, as could be sub-ice-shelf melting in
Antarctica.

 Climate changes during the 20th century are estimated from modelling studies to
have led to contributions of between –0.2 and 0.0 mm/yr from Antarctica (the results of
increasing precipitation) and 0.0 to 0.1 mm/yr from Greenland (from changes in both
precipitation and runoff).

 Estimates suggest that Greenland and Antarctica have contributed 0.0 to

0.5 mm/yr over the 20th century as a result of long-term adjustment to the end of the
last ice age.

75
Since 1992 a number of satellites have been recording the change in sea level; they
display an acceleration in the rate of sea level change, but they have not been operating
for long enough to work out whether this is a real signal, or just an artefact of short-term
variation.

Past changes in sea level

Changes in sea level during the last 9,000 years

The sedimentary record

For generations, geologists have been trying to explain the obvious cyclicity of
sedimentary deposits observed everywhere we look. The prevailing theories hold that
this cyclicity primarily represents the response of depositional processes to the rise and
fall of sea level. In the rock record, geologists see times when sea level was
astoundingly low alternating with times when sea level was much higher than today, and
these anomalies often appear worldwide. For instance, during the depths of the last  ice
age 18,000 years ago when hundreds of thousands of cubic miles of ice were stacked
up on the continents as glaciers, sea level was 120 m (390 ft) lower, locations that today
support coral reefs were left high and dry, and coastlines were miles farther basinward
from the present-day coastline. It was during this time of very low sea level that there
was a dry land connection between Asia and Alaska over which humans are believed to
have migrated to North America .However, for the past 6,000 years (a few centuries

76
before the first known written records), the world's sea level has been gradually
approaching the level we see today. During the previous interglacial about 120,000
years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6 m higher than today, as evidenced by
wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral
reefs left stranded about 3 metres above today's sea level along the southwestern
coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and
nearby paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at
that higher level to allow the reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came
from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of
geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.

Glacier contribution

It is well known that glaciers are subject to surges in their rate of movement with

consequent melting when they reach lower altitudes and/or the sea. The contributors to
Annals of Glaciology. Historical reports of surge occurrences in Iceland's glaciers go
back several centuries. Thus rapid retreat can have several other causes than CO2
increase in the atmosphere.

Greenland contribution

Krabill  estimate a net contribution from Greenland to be at least 0.13 mm/yr in the

1990s. Joughin have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ between
1997 and 2003. This is Greenland's largest-outlet glacier; it drains 6.5% of the ice sheet,
and is thought to be responsible for increasing the rate of sea level rise by about
0.06 millimetres per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th century rate of sea level increase.
In 2004, Rignot et al. estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from
southeast Greenland.

Rignot and Kanagaratnam] produced a comprehensive study and map of the outlet

glaciers and basins of Greenland. They found widespread glacial acceleration below 66
N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and that the ice sheet loss rate in that decade
increased from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra 0.25 to 0.55 mm/yr
of sea level rise.

77
In July 2005 it was reported that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland's east
coast, was moving towards the sea three times faster than a decade earlier.
Kangerdlugssuaq is around 1,000 m thick, 7.2 km (4.5 miles) wide, and drains about 4%
of the ice from the Greenland ice sheet. Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in 1988
and 1996 showed it moving at between 5 and 6 km/yr (3.1 to 3.7 miles/yr) (in 2005 it
was moving at 14 km/yr [8.7 miles/yr]).

Arctic contribution

According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, climate models project that
local warming in Greenland will exceed 3° Celsius during this century. Also, ice sheet
models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet,
leading to a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over several millennia,
resulting in a global sea level rise of about seven metres.

Antarctic contribution

On the Antarctic continent itself, the large volume of ice present stores around 70  % of
the world's fresh water. This ice sheet is constantly gaining ice from snowfall and losing
ice through outflow to the sea. West Antarctica is currently experiencing a net outflow of
glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. A review of the scientific
studies looking at data from 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around
50Gigatonnes of ice per year was a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm of sea level
rise), although significant acceleration of outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea
Embayment could have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.

East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most
of the continent. This area is dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which
becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The mass balance of the East
Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or
near to balance. However, increased ice outflow has been suggested in some regions.

Effects of snowline and permafrost

The snowline altitude is the altitude of the lowest elevation interval in which minimum
annual snow cover exceeds 50%. This ranges from about 5,500 metres above sea-level
78
at the equator down to sea-level at about 65° N&S latitude, depending on regional
temperature amelioration effects. Permafrost then appears at sea-level and extends
deeper below sea-level pole-wards. The depth of permafrost and the height of the ice-
fields in both Greenland and Antarctica means that they are largely invulnerable to rapid
melting. Greenland Summit is at 3,200 metres, where the average annual temperature
is minus 32 °C. So even a projected 4 °C rise in temperature leaves it well below
the melting point of ice. Frozen Ground 28, December 2004, has a very significant map
of permafrost affected areas in the Arctic.

Polar ice

The sea level will rise above its current level if more polar ice melts. However,
compared to the heights of the ice ages, today there are very few continental ice sheets
remaining to be melted. It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully melted, would contribute
more than 60 metres of sea level rise, and Greenland would contribute more than
7 metres. Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic
Peninsula might contribute about 0.5 metres. While the latter figure is much smaller
than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly (within the coming
century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1,500 years to fully
deglaciate at the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower. However, this
calculation does not account for the possibility that as meltwater flows under and
lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly towards
the sea.

Consequences of Climate Change on the Oceans

 Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets

 Sea Level Rise
 Ocean Acidification
 Thermohaline Circulation
 
Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets

79
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change has been melting of masses
of ice around the world. Glaciers and ice sheets are large, slow-moving assemblages
of ice that cover about 10% of the world’s land area and exist on every continent
except Australia. They are the world’s largest reservoir of fresh water, holding
approximately 75%.

Over the past century, most of the world’s mountain glaciers and the ice sheets in
both Greenland and Antarctica have lost mass. Retreat of this ice occurs when the
mass balance (the difference between accumulation of ice in the winter versus
ablation or melting in the summer) is negative such that more ice melts each year
than is replaced. By affecting the temperature and precipitation of a particular area,
both of which are key factors in the ability of a glacier to replenish its volume of ice,
climate change affects the mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets. When the
temperature exceeds a particular level or warm temperatures last for a long enough
period, and/or there is insufficient precipitation, glaciers and ice sheets will lose
mass.

80
When researching glacial melting, scientists must consider not only how much ice is
being lost, but also how quickly. Recent studies show that the movement of ice
towards the ocean from both of the major ice sheets has increased significantly. As
the speed increases, the ice streams flow more rapidly into the ocean, too quickly to
be replenished by snowfall near their heads. The speed of movement of some of the
ice streams draining the Greenland Ice Sheet, for example, has doubled in just a few
years . Using various methods to estimate how much ice is being lost (such as
creating a ‘before and after’ image of the ice sheet to estimate the change in shape
and therefore volume, or using satellites to ‘weigh’ the ice sheet by computing its
gravitational pull), scientists have discovered that the mass balance of the Greenland
Ice Sheet has become negative in the past few years. Estimates put the net loss of
ice at anywhere between 82 and 224 cubic kilometers per year . 

Image from UNEP

In Antarctica, recent estimates show a sharp contrast between what is occurring in

the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The acceleration of ice loss from the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet has doubled in recent years, which is similar to what has
happened in Greenland. In West Antarctica, as well as in Greenland, the main

81
reason for this increase is the quickening pace at which glacial streams are flowing
into the ocean. Scientists estimate the loss of ice from the West Antarctic ice sheet to
be from 47 to 148 cubic kilometers per year. On the other hand, recent
measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice sheet (which is much larger than
the West) is gaining mass because of increased precipitation. However, it must be
noted that this gain in mass by the East Antarctic ice sheet is nowhere near equal to
the loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet .  Therefore, the mass balance of the
entire Antarctic Ice Sheet is negative.
Effects of sea level rise

Current and future climate change would be expected to have a number of impacts,
particularly on coastal systems. Such impacts may include increased coastal erosion,
higher storm-surge flooding, inhibition of primary production processes, more extensive
coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and groundwater characteristics,
increased loss of property and coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss of
life, loss of non monetary cultural resources & values, impacts
on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality, and loss
of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions.

There is an implication that many of these impacts will be detrimental—especially for

the three-quarters of the world's poor who depend on agriculture systems. The report
does, however, note that owing to the great diversity of coastal environments; regional
and local differences in projected relative sea level and climate changes; and
differences in the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems, sectors, and
countries, the impacts will be highly variable in time and space.

The melting back of the glaciers and ice sheets has two major impacts. First, areas
that rely on the runoff from the melting of mountain glaciers are very likely to
experience severe water shortages as the glaciers disappear. Less runoff will lead to
a reduced capability to irrigate crops as freshwater dams and reservoirs more
frequently go dry. Water shortages could be especially severe in parts of South
America and Central Asia, where summertime runoff from the Andes and the
Himalayas, respectively, is crucial for fresh water supplies . Also, in areas of North
82
America and Europe, glacial runoff is used to power hydroelectric plants, sustain fish
runs and irrigate crops as well as to supply the needs of large metropolitan areas. As
the volume of runoff decreases, then the energy, urban, and agricultural
infrastructures of such locations are likely to be stressed .
While there are obviously many challenges to projecting future sea level rise, even a
seemingly small increase in sea level can have a dramatic impact on many coastal
environments. Over 600 million people live in coastal areas that are less than 10
meters above sea level, and two-thirds of the world’s cities that have populations
over five million are located in these at-risk areas . With sea level projected to rise at
an accelerated rate for at least several centuries, very large numbers of people in
vulnerable locations are going to be forced to relocate. If relocation is delayed or
populations do not evacuate during times when the areas are inundated by storm
surges, very large numbers of environmental refugees are likely to result.
According to the IPCC, even the best-case scenarios indicate that a rising sea level
would have a wide range of impacts on coastal environments and infrastructure.
Effects are likely to include coastal erosion, wetland and coastal plain flooding,
salinization of aquifers and soils, and a loss of habitats for fish, birds, and other
wildlife and plants . The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that 26,000
square kilometers of land would be lost should sea level rise by 0.66 meters, while
the IPCC notes that as much as 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely
to be lost in the next hundred years if the level of the ocean continues to rise at its
present rate. Even more land would be lost if the increase is significantly greater, and
this is quite possible .  As a result, very large numbers of wetland and swamp
species are likely at serious risk. In addition, species that rely upon the existence of
sea ice to survive are likely to be especially impacted as the retreat accelerates,
posing the threat of extinction for polar bears, seals, and some breeds of penguins.

Unfortunately, many of the nations that are most vulnerable to sea level rise do not
have the resources to prepare for it. Low-lying coastal regions in developing
countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, and China have especially large
populations living in at-risk coastal areas such as deltas, where river systems enter
83
the ocean. Both large island nations such as the Philippines and Indonesia and small
ones such as Tuvalu and Vanuatu are at severe risk because they do not have
enough land at higher elevations to support displaced coastal populations. Another
possibility for some island nations is the danger of losing their fresh-water supplies as
sea level rise pushes saltwater into their aquifers. For these reasons, those living on
several small island nations (including the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and the
Marshall Islands in the Pacific) could be forced to evacuate over the 21st century.

Ocean Acidification

Each year the oceans absorb the equivalent of about a third of human emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2), transferring most of it to the deep ocean . Over the past 200
years, the increasing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion have led to an
exponential increase in the net amount of CO2 being dissolved in the ocean.
Dissolved CO2 creates carbonic acid, which reduces the ocean pH level, making it
more acidic .

Acidity is measured using the pH scale, where items are given a numerical value
between 0 and 14. A value of seven is neutral, with higher values being described as
basic and lowers values as acidic. Historically, ocean pH has averaged around 8.17,
meaning that ocean waters are slightly basic. But with the rising CO2 concentration
causing acidification, today the pH levels are around 8.09, edging the waters closer
to neutral . Geological evidence and model reconstructions indicate that, over the
past 300 million years, the average pH of the ocean has not varied by more than 0.6
from its present value. Thus, the marine ecosystems present today have evolved in a
relatively stable pH environment. With the rising CO2 concentration over the last 200
years, ocean pH has been steadily decreasing. While the acidification of the oceans
is not yet itself worrisome except in polar regions, the rate at which the pH is
dropping is becoming alarming. This is because the rate of change is so much higher
than the natural weathering processes that have, in the past, buffered changes in
ocean pH. If the CO2 concentration continues to rise and the pH level continues to
fall at current rates, the ocean pH could drop by as much as 0.5 during the 22nd

84
century. Such a drastic change would very likely have a substantial adverse impact
on ocean life.
Island nations

IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small island states are particularly

vulnerable to sea level rise caused by both thermal expansion and ocean volume.
Relative sea level rise (mostly caused by subsidence) is currently causing substantial
loss of lands in some deltas. Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven
to have directly resulted in environmental, humanitarian, or economic losses to small
island states, but the IPCC and other bodies have found this a serious risk scenario in
coming decades.

Many media reports have focused the island nations of the Pacific, notably the
Polynesian islands of Tuvalu, which based on more severe flooding events in recent
years, was thought to be "sinking" due to sea level rise. A scientific review in 2000
reported that based onUniversity of Hawaii gauge data, Tuvalu had experienced a
negligible increase in sea-level of 0.07 mm a year over the past two decades, and
that ENSO had been a larger factor in Tuvalu's higher tides in recent years. A
subsequent study by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania, however, adjusted
for ENSO effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking).
Hunter concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of about 1.2 mm per
year. The recent more frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to anerosional loss
of land during and following the actions of 1997 cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli.

Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to
rising sea level.

Possible impacts/ Preventative Measures

The most direct impacts of ocean acidification will be on marine ecosystems. A
decrease in ocean pH would affect marine life by lowering the amount of calcium
carbonate (the substance created when CO2 is initially dissolved) in the water. 
Calcium carbonate is the substance used by many marine organisms (including
coral, shellfish, crustaceans, and mollusks) to build their shells . If the pH drops by
the expected 0.5 during this century, the resulting effect would be a 60% drop in
85
available calcium carbonate. Such a decrease would put the productivity and even
the survival of thousands of marine species at risk.
To prevent the rapid acidification of the ocean and hold the pH level within an
acceptable range for marine life, the atmospheric CO2 concentration needs to be
kept below no more than about 450 parts per million (ppm). With the current
concentration at roughly 387 ppm, the concentration seems likely to be near 500 ppm
by mid-century without sharp reductions in emissions. To keep the decrease in pH to
less than 0.2 pH, which could help to protect critical marine ecosystems, will require
keeping the CO2concentration below about 450 ppm .

 Thermohaline Circulation
 
Another impact of glacial retreat is the possible effect fresh melt water will have on
the thermohaline circulation. Driven by density gradients in ocean waters, the
thermohaline (or deep ocean overturning) circulation is made up of the global flow of
ocean currents. As ocean waters move around, different water masses are formed as
evaporation removes fresh water and precipitation and river runoff add fresh water,
each changing ocean salinity and therefore the density of the waters. Surface
currents, which are largely driven by wind patterns, take the water masses to areas
where they are warmed by high solar radiation (leading to lower density) or cooled in
higher latitudes (leading to higher density). When surface water density becomes
greater than for waters below, downwelling currents carry the denser surface waters
down and push less dense, nutrient rich waters toward the surface, where winds
bring them all the way to the surface and create areas rich with marine life. Thus, the
density gradients created by temperature (cold water is more dense than water that
is warm) and salinity (salt water is more dense than freshwater) are critical to both
how ocean waters move and where there are nutrients that promote significant
marine life. Because both temperature and salinity are influenced by changes in the
climate, there are concerns about the ways in which the thermohaline circulation
might be affected.
 

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The influences can operate in various ways. First, ocean circulation could be
influenced by changes in runoff from glaciers and ice sheets. As glaciers melt and
release fresh water into the ocean, the influx dilutes saltier waters, likely reducing the
rate of bottom water formation because relatively fresh water will not be able to sink
(even at higher latitudes where it becomes cold and dense), thus affecting deep
ocean currents. With the rate at which glaciers are melting and the amount of
freshwater that might be introduced into the ocean changing, it is thus quite possible
that the intensity of the thermohaline circulation could be reduced.
Climate change will not only affect salinity levels, but will also affect ocean
temperatures and circulation patterns. First, as ocean temperatures increase, thermal
expansion will cause the density to decrease and so increase the volume of ocean
waters, raising sea level. Because surface currents are driven by the winds, warm
surface waters moved by the winds are generally replaced by the colder waters
underneath, with the upwelling bringing up nutrient-rich colder waters that promote
flourishing marine life. As ocean surface waters warm and become less likely to sink,
a smaller amount of cold water is brought up to the surface, impacting circulation
patterns and marine life. In addition, warmer temperatures will lead to more
evaporation. When the water evaporates, the salt stays behind. An increase in
salinity changes the density of the water, and therefore affects circulations patterns.
Given the interactions of these processes, there are increasing concerns that climate
change will reduce the overall intensity of the thermohaline (deep-ocean) circulation.

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Changes such as these could be quite important for northern European countries.
The Gulf Stream carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, and the
heat it gives off to the atmosphere contributes to the mild temperatures in the region,
even though Europe is located at a relatively high latitude. With sufficient cooling, the
water sinks near Greenland and further north, pulling more warm waters northward
from the tropics. If ocean warming slows the thermohaline circulation, less warm
water would be transported north and Europe would likely experience less warming
or even a cooling .

Such a cooling event may have occurred during the Younger Dryas about 12,000
years ago when meltwater release from rapid deglaciation of North America
freshened the North Atlantic, likely shutting off the deep ocean circulation  and
disrupting weather and ocean circulation patterns . Within a decade of the shutdown
of the thermohaline circulation, global climate patterns were altered significantly and
European and North American temperatures dropped by as much as 15ºC. Such a
rapid and dramatic shift in climate has not happened since, but with melting of
Greenland beginning, there is an increasing risk of a similarly sudden shift in the
future .

4 less expected consequences of rising sea levels due to global warming

Salinity itself will effect our water supply - We all know that global warming will cause
sea levels to rise. Therefore, most of us understand that places which right now are
above water could end up underwater. Further, the masses tend to understand that the
added heat could serve to dry up reservoirs.

However, very little has been discussed concerning salinity (in other words, salt). Simply
put, if the ocean rises it will increase the salinities of estuaries (the lower course of a
river where its currents are met by tides) and aquifers (underground beds or layers of
earth, gravel, or porous stone that yield water). When this happens, the extra salt will
impair water supplies and reservoirs as nearly all coastal water supplies are significantly
impacted by the ocean to begin with.
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Said another way, New York, Philadelphia, and California get a lot of their water from
upstream rivers. If salt were to venture further upstream it would in essence destroy
much of their water supplies. Not to mention that salinity increases in such waters when
the heat is high.

How to survive rising sea levels due to global warming

First thing we must all do is understand that some of these changes will take place no
matter what we do (whether emissions are lessened or not). Thus, we must all
understand that adaptation is a must. Once that is understood, then change can take
place.

So, here are three ideas on how to combat these sea level issues through adaptation.

1. Make a wall - Coastal cities and areas will need protection. One obvious way to
attempt this is through walling them off with bulkheads, dikes, seawalls, and pumping
systems. Dikes and pumping systems are already being used in areas such as New
Orleans that are well below sea level. In fact, all of these are being used effectively in
other parts of the country..

Though these manmade structures will help save property and stop flooding, they may
not serve to protect shorelines aesthetically; nor will they necessarily protect
ecosystems (marshes, etc.) from harm.

2. Elevate the land - Using fill to elevate beaches/ the area around bodies of water has
been successful in other parts of the country. The nice thing about this method of
dealing with rising sea levels is that it will allow beaches to keep much of their aesthetic
beauty and recreational usefulness.

This method will be an especially prudent one to use in areas where the shoreline is
important to the economy, as is the case with the Caribbean islands, Hawaii, and the
like. But again, remember that even if the beaches stay intact, the surfing could be

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rough due to the increased size of waves. So practice with caution all of you surfer
dudes!

3. Learn how to effectively turn saltwater into drinking water - Okay, this is the one
that could solve the problem of negatively impacted reservoirs and lessened rain due in
part to rising sea levels. First, it is important to understand that desalination (the process
of taking the salt out of ocean water,

usually for the purpose of drinking it) is something that we can already do. For instance,
desalination has been occurring on ships and other arid regions of the world for some
time now. However, it is time consuming and expensive (it costs about $1,000 per acre
foot to desalinate ocean water as opposed to $200 per acre foot to utilize normal
drinking water). Still, the prices are falling. Further, there may be a time when we have
no choice but to go to the ocean for our drinking water. Then - as with everything else -
our ability to do this in a cost effective manner will no doubt increase when/ if this time
comes.

In sum, rising sea levels will cause more problems than just flooding. One particularly
troubling aspect of sea level increases is the amount of salt that will be let loose on our
world. However, there are things that can be done about all of this. But before we can
be effective in dealing with sea level increases, we must admit to ourselves as a society
that global warming is a permanent problem (that can only be mitigated by lessening
emissions, not solved entirely). Only then will we begin to turn our focus toward
adaptation.

Conclusion

As CO2 emissions and climate change continue, risks to the health of the ocean will
become a more prominent concern. With accelerated melting back of glaciers and ice
sheets and the subsequent rise in sea level, with further decreases in oceanic pH,
and with deceleration of the thermohaline circulation, there are many ways in which
the delicate balance of ocean dynamics and ecosystems are being put at risk. These

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factors, combined with the uncertainty in predicting exactly how these impacts will
interact, are causing changes in the ocean: an increasingly problematic issue for
future generations.

CHAPTER 5

GLOBAL WARMING

INTRODUCTION

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface

air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface
temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of
the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes
that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century
was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human
activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. The IPCC also concludes that

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variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanismproduced most of
the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect
afterward. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific
societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of
science of the major industrialized countries.

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that

the global surface temperature will probably rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to
11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. ]The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the
use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of
differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Some
other uncertainties include how warming and related changes will vary from region to
region around the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to the year 2100.
However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop,
because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the
amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion
of subtropical deserts. The continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice is
expected, with warming being strongest in the Arctic. Other likely effects include
increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes
in agricultural yields.

Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, and what actions (if

any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further
emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more
speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national
governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.

Temperature changes

 Temperature record

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Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions,
each smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also
plotted for reference.

The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend in globally
averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this
temperature rose by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming
over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13°C
±0.03°C per decade, versus 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade). The urban heat island effect
is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.
Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22
and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.
Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand
years before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm
Periodor the Little Ice Age.

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the
warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available
in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a
degree.] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic
Research Unit concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind
1998. Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the
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past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term
fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative
stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have
increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against
0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures
because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean
loses more heat by evaporation.] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the
Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of
seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more
greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not
contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist
long enough to mix between hemispheres. The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow
responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to
adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if
greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.

Radiative forcing

External forcing is a term used in climate science for processes external to the climate
system (though not necessarily external to Earth). Climate responds to several types of
external forcing, such as changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, changes in solar
luminosity, volcaniceruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Attribution
of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary
slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the
temperature changes observed in the past century.

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Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere,
and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter
(W/m2).

Recent atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) increases. Monthly CO2measurements display

seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the
Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants
remove some atmospheric CO2.

The greenhouse effect is the process by

which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm
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a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824
and was first investigated quantitatively. Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is
not disputed, even by those who do not agree that the recent temperature increase is
attributable to human activity. The question is instead how the strength of the
greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C
(59 °F). The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70
percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26
percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7
percent. Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water
or ice and so are considered separately from water vapor and other gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane,
tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane
have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since the mid-1700s. These levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable
data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that
CO2 values this high were last seen about 20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has
produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO 2 from human activity over the past
20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly deforestation.

CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use
change. The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain
economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, the
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future
CO2scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100. Fossil fuel reserves are
sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, tar
sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited. The destruction
of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to
global warming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the

96
two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but
substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s. Tropospheric
ozone contributes to surface warming.

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the

Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the
present. The main cause of this dimming isaerosols produced by volcanoes
and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of
incoming sunlight. James Hansen and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the
products of fossil fuel combustion—CO 2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another
in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-CO 2 greenhouse
gases. In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation,
aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud
condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets.
These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger
droplets. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which
reducesgrowth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.
Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited.
Atmospheric soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere
and cools the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as much as 50% of surface
warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.
When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower
surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of aerosols, including
black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia,
while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern
hemisphere.

Solar variation

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Solar variation over the last thirty years.

Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes, but solar
forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global
warming in recent decades. However, a 2007 phenomenological analysis indicated that
the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both
increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the  
troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an
increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere. Observations show that
temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since 1979, when satellite
measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-
satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early
radiosonde record. A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that
magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of
cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate. Other research has found no
relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays A recent study concluded
that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than
needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to
present-day climate change.

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Feedback

A positive feedback is a process that amplifies some change. Thus, when a warming
trend results in effects that induce further warming, the result is a positive feedback;
when the warming results in effects that reduce the original warming, the result is a
negative feedback. The main positive feedback in global warming involves the tendency
of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. The main
negative feedback in global warming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared
radiation: as the temperature of a body increases, the emitted radiation increases with
the fourth power of its absolute temperature.

Water vapor feedback 

If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount
of water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a
greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm
further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive
feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much
larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO 2 alone. Although this feedback process
causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative
humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.

Cloud feedback 
Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below,
clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen
from above, clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a
cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as
the type and altitude of the cloud. These details were poorly observed before the advent
of satellite data and are difficult to represent in climate models.
Lapse rate 
The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since
emission of infrared radiation varies with temperature,longwave radiation escaping to
space from the relatively cold upper atmosphere is less than that emitted toward the
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ground from the lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength of the greenhouse effect
depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theory and
climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature
decrease with height, producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the
greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rate of temperature change with height are
very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult to establish whether the
models agree with observations.
Ice-albedo feedback 

Aerial photograph showing a section of sea ice. The lighter blue areas are  melt
ponds and the darkest areas are open water, both have a lower albedo than the white
sea ice. The melting ice contributes to ice-albedo feedback.
When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on
average less reflective than ice and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more
warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.

Arctic methane release 

Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in the arctic. Methane
released from thawing permafrost such as the frozen peat bogs in Siberia, and
from methane clathrate on the sea floor, creates a positive feedback.
Reduced absorption of CO2 by the oceanic ecosystems 

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Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as the oceans
warm. This is because warming reduces the nutrient levels of the mesopelagic
zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep), which limits the growth of diatoms in favor of
smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.
CO2 release from oceans 
Cooler water can absorb more CO 2. As ocean temperatures rise some of this CO 2 will
be released. This is one of the main reasons why atmospheric CO 2 is lower during an
ice age. There is a greater mass of CO 2 contained in the oceans than there is in the
atmosphere.
Gas release 

Release of gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research
into such effects is at an early stage. Some of these gases, such as nitrous
oxide released from peat, directly affect climate. Others, such as dimethyl
sulfide released from oceans, have indirect effects

Climate models

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate

models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to
reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.

 
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The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21 st century calculated by
the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic
growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming
corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).

The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on
physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer.
Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the
actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer
power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models
are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an
atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric
properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of
ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture
transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include
treatments of chemical and biological processes. Warming due to increasing levels of
greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from
the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes
in the models. Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the
greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific
greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used.

102
The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-
generation models.

Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of
greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a
simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this
response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive
feedback. Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate
sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the
end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999. Models are also used to help investigate
the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that
the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these
models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately
1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the
warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The
physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past
climates. Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global
temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of
climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate
models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than
that predicted.

Environmental Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming

Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the
1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported
to the WGMS and the NSIDC.

It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead,

global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of
events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader
effects are expected to include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level
rise. Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part,
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already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests
that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level
rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme
weather events are attributable in part to global warming. Other expected effects include
water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in
mountain snowpack, and some adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.
Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing
population densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience
some benefits, such as fewer cold-related deaths. A summary of probable effects and
recent understanding can be found in the report made for theIPCC Third Assessment
Report by Working Group II. The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Reportsummary
reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical
cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the
increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is
complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The
summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of
tropical cyclones. Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59
meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 2090–2100 relative to 1980–1999, new trade routes resulting
from arctic shrinkage, possible thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense
(but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events, ] reductions in the ozone
layer, changes in agriculture yields, changes in the range of climate-dependent disease
vectors, which have been linked to increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue
fever, and ocean oxygen depletion. Increased atmospheric CO2 increases the amount
of CO2 dissolved in the oceans. CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to
form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to
have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004, ] and
is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs
more CO2. Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds of
years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually
reduced. Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this
raises extinction concerns and disruptions in food webs. One study predicts 18% to
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35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on
future climate projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented
extinctions due to recent climate change, and one study suggests that projected rates
ofextinction are uncertain.

Economic: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy

Projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the colored

bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red
and the blue lines the likely limits. From IPCC AR4.

The IPCC reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change
globally (discountedto the specified year). In 2005, the average social cost of
carbon from 100 peer-reviewed estimates is US$12 per tonne of CO 2, but range -$3 to
$95/tCO2. The IPCC's gives these cost estimates with the caveats, "Aggregate
estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across sectors, regions and
populations and very likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include
many non-quantifiable impacts." One widely publicized report on potential economic
impact is the Stern Review, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme
weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in a
worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the equivalent of 20
percent. The response to the Stern Review was mixed. The Review's methodology,
advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including Richard
Tol, Gary Yohe, Robert Mendelsohn and William Nordhaus. Economists that have
generally supported the Review include Terry Barker, William Cline, and Frank
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Ackerman. According to Barker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant'
relative to the risks of unmitigated climate change. According to United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to
climate change includebanks, agriculture, transport and others. Developing countries
dependent upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.

Responses to global warming

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to

increase has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement
responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the
causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing global environment,
and geoengineering to reverse global warming.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may

be sequestered from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen
production. When used on plants, it is known as bio-energy with carbon capture and
storage.

Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate

of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. Models suggest that mitigation can quickly
begin to slow global warming, but that temperatures will appreciably decrease only after
several centuries. The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse
gas emissions is the Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the UNFCCC negotiated in
1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global
greenhouse gas emissions. As of June 2009, only the United States, historically the
world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty
expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the
current one. UN negotiations are now gathering pace in advance of a meeting in
Copenhagen in December 2009.

Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as well

as community and regional actions. Others have suggested a quota on worldwide fossil
fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO 2 emissions.

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There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve
energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005
the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through
which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to
purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon
Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has
announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme.

The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global
warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely
responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key practices and
technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry,
and agriculture, that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate
that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will
result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross
domestic product.

Adaptation: Adaptation to global warming

A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming.

These measures range from the trivial, such as the installation of air-
conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such as abandoning
settlements threatened by sea level rise.

Measures including water conservation, water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices,

construction of flood defences, Martian colonization, changes to medical care, and
interventions to protect threatened species have all been suggested. A wide-ranging
study of the possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published
by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.

Geoengineering

Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large

scale to suit human needs. An example isgreenhouse gas remediation, which removes

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greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually through carbon
sequestration techniques such ascarbon dioxide air capture. Solar radiation
management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric
sulfur aerosols or cool roof techniques. No large-scale geoengineering projects have yet
been undertaken.

Debate and skepticism

Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in
political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk
from the projected effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small
compared to the developed world. The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto
Protocol restrictions has been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous
Australian Government. (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.) Another point
of contention is the degree to which emerging economies such as India and China
should be expected to constrain their emissions. The U.S. contends that if it must bear
the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same since China's gross
national CO2 emissions now exceed those of the U.S. China has contended that it is
less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and per capita
emissions are less that of the U.S.[121] India, also exempt, has made similar contentions.

In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's

population were unaware of global warming, with developing countries less aware
than developed, and Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in
belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of
Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the
opposite belief. In the western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate
responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds that "results show the
different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic";
where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates
whether climate change is happening.

Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against

the costs that such changes would entail. Using economic incentives, alternative and
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renewable energy have been promoted to reduce emissions while building
infrastructure. Business-centered organizations such as the Competitive Enterprise
Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have
downplayed IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with
the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of
stricter controls. Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized
changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to
changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions. Some fossil fuel companies
have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global
warming. Some global warming skeptics in the science or political communities dispute
all or some of the global warming scientific consensus, questioning whether global
warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has contributed significantly to the
warming, and the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming. Prominent global
warming skeptics include Richard Lindzen, Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels,John
Christy, Stephen McIntyre and Robert Balling.

Greenhouse effect

The "greenhouse effect" is the warming that happens when certain gases in Earth's
atmosphere trap heat. These gases let in light but keep heat from escaping, like the
glass walls of a greenhouse. First, sunlight shines onto the Earth's surface, where it is
absorbed and then radiates back into the atmosphere as heat. In the atmosphere,
“greenhouse” gases trap some of this heat, and the rest escapes into space. The more
greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere, the more heat gets trapped.

Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824, when Joseph Fourier
calculated that the Earth would be much colder if it had no atmosphere. This
greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth's climate livable. Without it, the Earth's
surface would be an average of about 60 degrees Fahrenheit cooler. In 1895, the
Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered that humans could enhance the
greenhouse effect by making carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. He kicked off 100
years of climate research that has given us a sophisticated understanding of global
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warming. Levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have gone up and down over the Earth's
history, but they have been fairly constant for the past few thousand years. Global
average temperatures have stayed fairly constant over that time as well, until recently.
Through the burning of fossil fuels and other GHG emissions, humans are enhancing
the greenhouse effect and warming Earth.

Scientists often use the term "climate change" instead of global warming. This is
because as the Earth's average temperature climbs, winds and ocean currents move
heat around the globe in ways that can cool some areas, warm others, and change the
amount of rain and snow falling. As a result, the climate changes differently in different
areas. Aren't temperature changes natural? The average global temperature and
concentrations of carbon dioxide (one of the major greenhouse gases) have fluctuated
on a cycle of hundreds of thousands of years as the Earth's position relative to the sun
has varied. As a result, ice ages have come and gone.
However, for thousands of years now, emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere have been
balanced out by GHGs that are naturally absorbed.  As a result, GHG concentrations
and temperature have been fairly stable. This stability has allowed human civilization to
develop within a consistent climate.

Occasionally, other factors briefly influence global temperatures.  Volcanic eruptions, for
example, emit particles that temporarily cool the Earth's surface.  But these have no
lasting effect beyond a few years. Other cycles, such as El Niño, also work on fairly
short and predictable cycles. Now, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere by more than a third since the industrial revolution. Changes this large have
historically taken thousands of years, but are now happening over the course of decades.

Global Warming Solutions

Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) today, the Earth would still
warm by another degree Fahrenheit or so. But what we do from today forward makes a
big difference.  Depending on our choices, scientists predict that the Earth could
eventually warm by as little as 2.5 degrees or as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit. 

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A commonly cited goal is to stabilize GHG concentrations around 450-550 parts per
million (ppm), or about twice pre-industrial levels. This is the point at which many
believe the most damaging impacts of climate change can be avoided.  Current
concentrations are about 380 ppm, which means there isn't much time to lose. 
According to the IPCC, we'd have to reduce GHG emissions by 50% to 80% of what
they're on track to be in the next century to reach this level.
GLOBAL WARMING AWARENESS
Global Warming Skeptics - Skeptics of global warming think that global warming is not
an ecological trouble.

Causes of Global Warming – The Green house gases are the main culprits of the global
warming. The green house gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are
playing hazards in the present times. Green House Gasses are the ingredients of the
atmosphere that add to the greenhouse effect. 

Al Gore Global Warming Initiative - Gore has written a book that archives his advice that
Earth is dashing toward an immensely warmer future. 

The average facade temperature of the globe has augmented more than 1 degree
Fahrenheit since 1900 and the speed of warming has been almost three folds the
century long average since 1970. This increase in earth’s average temperature is called
Global warming. More or less all specialists studying the climate record of the earth
have the same opinion now that human actions, mainly the discharge of green house
gases from smokestacks, vehicles, and burning forests, are perhaps the leading power
driving the fashion.

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The gases append to the planet's normal greenhouse effect, permitting sunlight in, but
stopping some of the ensuing heat from radiating back to space. Based on the study on
past climate shifts, notes of current situations, and computer simulations, many climate
scientists say that lacking of big curbs in greenhouse gas discharges, the 21st century
might see temperatures rise of about 3 to 8 degrees, climate patterns piercingly shift,
ice sheets contract and seas rise several feet. With the probable exemption of one more
world war, a huge asteroid, or a fatal plague, global warming may be the only most
danger to our planet earth.

Global Warming Causes As said, the major cause of global warming is the emission of
green house gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide etc into the
atmosphere.The major source of carbon dioxide is the power plants. These power
plants emit large amounts of carbon dioxide produced from burning of fossil fuels for the
purpose of electricity generation. About twenty percent of carbon dioxide emitted in the
atmosphere comes from burning of gasoline in the engines of the vehicles. This is true
for most of the developed countries. Buildings, both commercial and residential
represent a larger source of global warming pollution than cars and trucks.
Building of these structures require a lot of fuel to be burnt which emits a large amount
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Methane is more than 20 times as effectual as
CO2 at entrapping heat in the atmosphere. Methane is obtained from resources such as
rice paddies, bovine flatulence, bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel manufacture. When
fields are flooded, anaerobic situation build up and the organic matter in the soil decays,
releasing methane to the atmosphere. The main sources of nitrous oxide include nylon
and nitric acid production, cars with catalytic converters, the use of fertilizers in
agriculture and the burning of organic matter. Another cause of global warming is
deforestation that is caused by cutting and burning of forests for the purpose of
residence and industrialization.

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Global Warming is Inspiring Scientists to Fight for Awareness Scientists all over the
world are making predictions about the ill effects of Global warming and connecting
some of the events that have taken place in the pat few decades as an alarm of global
warming. The effect of global warming is increasing the average temperature of the
earth. A rise in earth’s temperatures can in turn root to other alterations in the ecology,
including an increasing sea level and modifying the quantity and pattern of rainfall.
These modifications may boost the occurrence and concentration of severe climate
events, such as floods, famines, heat waves, tornados, and twisters. Other
consequences may comprise of higher or lower agricultural outputs, glacier melting,
lesser summer stream flows, genus extinctions and rise in the ranges of disease
vectors. As an effect of global warming species like golden toad, harlequin frog of Costa
Rica has already become extinct. There are number of species that have a threat of
disappearing soon as an effect of global warming. As an effect of global warming
various new diseases have emerged lately. These diseases are occurring frequently
due to the increase in earths average temperature since the bacteria can survive better
in elevated temperatures and even multiplies faster when the conditions are favorable.
The global warming is extending the distribution of mosquitoes due to the increase in
humidity levels and their frequent growth in warmer atmosphere. Various diseases due
to ebola, hanta and machupo virus are expected due to warmer climates.

The marine life is also very sensitive to the increase in temperatures. The effect of
global warming will definitely be seen on some species in the water. A survey was made
in which the marine life reacted significantly to the changes in water temperatures. It is
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expected that many species will die off or become extinct due to the increase in the
temperatures of the water, whereas various other species, which prefer warmer waters,
will increase tremendously. Perhaps the most disturbing changes are expected in the
coral reefs that are expected to die off as an effect of global warming. The global
warming is expected to cause irreversible changes in the ecosystem and the behavior
of animals.

A group of scientists have recently reported on the surprisingly speedy rise in the
discharge of carbon and methane release from frozen tundra in Siberia, now starting to
melt because of human cause increases in earth’s temperature. The scientists tell us
that the tundra is in danger of melting holds an amount of extra global warming pollution
that is equivalent to the net amount that is previously in the earth's atmosphere.
Likewise, earlier one more team of scientists reported that the in a single year
Greenland witnessed 32 glacial earthquakes between 4.6 and 5.1 on the Richter scale.
This is a disturbing sign and points that a huge destabilization that may now be in
progress deep within the second biggest accretion of ice on the planet. This ice would
be enough to raise sea level 20 feet worldwide if it broke up and slipped into the sea.
Each day passing brings yet new proof that we are now in front of a global emergency,
a climate emergency that needs instant action to piercingly decrease carbon dioxide
emissions worldwide in order to turn down the earth's rising temperatures and avoid any
catastrophe.
It is not easy to attach any particular events to global warming, but studies prove the
fact that human activities are increasing the earth’s temperature. Even though most
predictions focus on the epoch up to 2100, even if no further greenhouse gases were
discharged after this date, global warming and sea level would be likely to go on to rise
for more than a millennium, since carbon dioxide has a long average atmospheric life
span.
You Can Help Fight Global Warming

Many efforts are being made by various nations to

cut down the rate of global warming. One such effort
is the Kyoto agreement that has been made

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between various nations to reduce the emissions of various green house gases. Also
many non profit organizations are working for the cause. Al Gore was one of the
foremost U.S. politicians to heave an alarm about the hazards of global warming. He
has produced a significantly acclaimed documentary movie called "An Inconvenient
Truth," and written a book that archives his advice that Earth is dashing toward an
immensely warmer future. Al Gore, the former vice president of United States has given
various speeches to raise an awareness of global warming. He has warned people
about the ill effects of Global warming and its remedies.
But an interesting side of the global warming episode is that there are people who do
not consider global warming as something that is creating a problem. Skeptics of global
warming think that global warming is not an ecological trouble. According to the global
warming skeptics, the recent enhancement in the earth's average temperature is no
reason for alarm. According to them earth's coastlines and polar ice caps are not at a
risk of vanishing. Global warming skeptics consider that the weather models used to
establish global warming and to forecast its impacts are distorted. According to the
models, if calculations are made the last few decades must have been much worse as
compared to actually happened to be. Most of the global warming skeptics believe that
the global warming is not actually occurring. They stress on the fact the climatic
conditions vary because of volcanism, the obliquity cycle, changes in solar output, and
internal variability. Also the warming can be due to the variation in cloud cover, which in
turn is responsible for the temperatures on the earth. The variations are also a result of
cosmic ray flux that is modulated by the solar magnetic cycles.
Global Warming Skeptics

The global warming skeptics are of the view that the global warming is a good
phenomenon and should not be stopped. There are various benefits of global warming
according to them. According to the skeptics, the global warming will increase humidity
in tropical deserts. Also the higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere trigger
plant growth. As predicted, due to the global warming the sea levels will rise. But this
can be readily adapted. Another argument of global warming skeptics is that earth has
been warmer than today as seen in its history. The thought is that global warming is
nothing to get afraid of because it just takes us back to a more natural set of
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environment of the past. Animals and plants appeared to do just fine in those eras of
warm climate on the earth. According to few skeptics, the present chilly climate on the
earth is an abnormality when judged over the geographical scale. Over geologic time,
the earth’s mean temperature is 22 degrees C, as compared to today's 15.5 degrees C.
Prevention for Global Warming

Global warming refers to the Earth’s air and oceans gradually heating up to a point that
disrupts balance, a problem that is continually getting worse. It sounds like a problem
too massive for any one individual to take on, but it really isn’t. Combining any few of
these suggestions can make more of a dramatic effect than most people understand.
The goal is to emit less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere:

1. Drive less. Take bikes, walk or carpool whenever possible.

2. Consider investing in a hybrid or electric vehicle to help prevent against further
global warming.

3. Replace all the lightbulbs in and around your home with energy-efficient
fluorescents that use fewer watts for the same amount of light.

4. Clean or replace your filters monthly.

5. Choose energy-efficient appliances when it's time to buy new ones.

6. Decrease your air travel.

7. Wash clothes in cold water and line-dry whenever possible.

8. Use a low-flow showerhead, which will lessen the hot water used but not drop
your water pressure in the shower.

9. Cut down on your garbage—buy fewer packaged materials to prevent further

global warming.

10. Unplug electronics when they are not in use, because they still take up energy.
At the very least, turn items off when they’re not being used.

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11. Run the dishwasher and clothes washer only when you have a full load, and if
available, use the energy-saving setting.

12. Insulate your home better, and don’t forget to repair or replace worn caulking or
weather-stripping. Insulate your water heater.

13. Buy recycled paper products and recycle as much of your waste as possible.

14. Bring your own reusable canvas grocery bags when grocery shopping.

15. Plant a tree.

16. Have an energy audit done on your home so you can find the trouble areas and
fix them.

17. Use nontoxic cleaning products.

18. Shop locally for food. A farmer’s market is an excellent place to visit. And choose
fresh food over frozen foods. Fresh takes less energy to produce.

19. Keep your car tuned up, and check tire pressure often to save gas.

20. Eat less meat and more organic foods in your diet to do your part in preventing
global warming.

CHAPTER 6
RESEARCH

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The objective of the research is to study the degree of awareness about environmental
issues in people in semi-urban & rural area and different modes to promote it according
to them in terms of their opinion & knowledge.
1. NEED FOR STUDY
As a part of the course curriculum, this project for Indian Institute of Ecology &
Environment will do lot of value additions for my profile. I will be learning in great detail
the global environmental issues such as Ozone Depletion, Acid rain, Global warming,
Climate change etc. Meeting with the different kinds of people and asking them about
these issues will provide deeper insights into the various aspects related to
environmental studies and their efforts towards maintaining and growing green &
environment-friendly base. I will also be doing some value additions as this research will
provide some useful information which will help in future decision making.
OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
 To study the degree of awareness in the society/ people about global
environmental issues in semi-urban & rural areas.
 To study & find out different modes of promotion of these issues .
SCOPE OF OBJECTIVES
In order to achieve my objective there were some other tasks as well which were
important. In order to study the global environmental issues, I went through different
books provided by the institute and done several searches on internet. The information
provided by my guide is also very helpful for this project. In order to do research and
analyse the people, I visited several schools, offices & working places, houses in the
semi-urban and rural area, sat with them over there and understood the awareness and
knowledge with them about various environmental issues. I also gathered information
by asking them personally their suggestions with the help of self prepared
questionnaire..

RESEARCH (SURVEY) METHODOLOGY

Research Objective

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People are the asset of any society, especially in India. They consume and experience
the environment’s different resources and generate the revenue from it to be a profitable
preposition. But this consumption is crossing the limits put by nature. The excess use of
all the natural resources is one of the main reasons for the environmental issues.
The objectives are:
1. To study the degree of awareness in the society/ people about global
environmental issues in semi-urban & rural areas.
2. To study & find out different modes of promotion of these issues .
Research Plan
Involves decision on the data source, research approach, research instruments,
sampling plan and contact method
Sources of Data Collection
Sources of primary data has been used for the survey, Fresh data has been collected
for this Specific purpose.
Research Approach
An interview with people of different semi-urban and rural areas conducted in different
schools, offices & working places, houses etc. The different kinds of people interviewed
are students, working professionals, housewives and senior citizens.
RESEARCH INSTRUMENT
There are basically three main research instruments in collecting primary data
- Interview, Questionnaires and Qualitative measures.
In this particular research, I have used Questionnaire as a principal research
instruments.
Questionnaire
A Questionnaire consists of set of questions, presented to respondents. Because of its
flexibility, it becomes the common instrument to collect primary data. My questionnaire
was consisting of both close as well as open ended questions giving respondents the
freedom to express their views in all possible ways.

DATA ANALYSIS
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
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The people interviewed can be categorized as: male & female as well as literates and
illiterates. The questions were asked in their local language for their understanding.
Total no. of people interviewed (no. of samples): 200

QUESTIONNAIRE USED FOR THE SURVEY OF PEOPLE IN SEMI-URBAN &

RURAL AREA:

1. What is your age:

a) less than 20 b) 20-40 c) 40-60 d) 60 above
2. Type of Area of living:
a) Rural b) Semi-urban
3. What is your working state :
a) student b) working professional
c) housewife d) retired person
4. Are you aware of different global environmental issues?
a) Yes b) No
5. Which global environmental issues of the following you are aware of?
a) climate change b) Global warming
c) sea level rise d) greenhouse effect
e) Acid rain f) Ozone depletion
g) Pollution h) Resource depletion
i) Land degradation
6. From which of the following source you came to know about global environmental
issues?
a) Newspaper b) TV channels & movies
c) Academic books d) Internet
e) Radio f) Word of mouth

7. Are you aware of recent copenhegan conference held about global climate change?
a) Yes b) No
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8. In what way, would you like to contribute the nature in reducing global warming and
other environmental issues? (Rank the following accordingly such as 1 for most
preferred)
a) Use of renewable energy sources b) Use solar energy
c) Use wind energy d) Use nuclear energy
e) Reduce use of CO2 & CFC emitting devices
f) Use pollution control equipments
g) Plant more trees h) Use of recycled products
9. Do you think that the awareness created about the global environmental issues is
enough to motivate the people for its control measures?
a) Yes b) No
10. Which mode of Environmental education the following would you prefer ? (Rank the
following accordingly such as 1 for most preferred)
a) Newspaper b) TV channels and movies
c) Radio d) Internet
e) As an academic subject in school

11. What, according to you, are the factors responsible for these global environmental
issues?

12. What suggestions would you like to give regarding these issues?

DATA ANALYSIS
One of the important steps in the process is to extract findings from the collected data.
In this research quantitative and qualitative methods of data analysis are used.
Interview questions were related to the knowledge about the environmental issues.
Quantitative analysis was done with the help of tools like MS-excel, MS-word etc.

Q.1 Age of the respondent:

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Finding: most people interviewed are between age group of 20 to 40 which consists of
young generation.
Q.2 Type of Area of living

Finding: From the diagram, its clear that 112 people from rural area and 88 people from
semi-urban area are surveyed. Thus, total 200 people were interviewed.

Q.3 Working state of respondents :

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Finding: above diagram shows that the majority of respondents are students (84 out of
200)

Q.4 Awareness about different global environmental issues

It is found that almost all the respondents were aware about global environmental
issues due to easy modes of communication.
Q5. Different Global environmental issues respondents are aware of:

Finding: from the figure, it is clear that pollution is known to everybody interviewed.

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But the issues such as acid rain & resource depletion are known by almost 74% people.
Thus, there is strong need to create awareness regarding this type of issues in rural as
well as semi-urban area.

6. Source of knowledge about global environmental issues

Finding: the main source of awareness among people is academic books of students.
TV channels and movies, newspapers upto some extent are also the important modes.
As compared to semi-urban area, rural area people lack in use of internet. Illiterate
people came to know about these issues through word of mouth and through their
children or grandchildren.

Q.7 Awareness about recent copenhegan conference held about global climate change
Finding: out of 200 respondents, 83.5% (i.e. 167) people are aware of the recent
copenhegan conference.

Q.8 The way respondents would like to contribute the nature in reducing global warming
and other environmental issues (Rank: 1 for most preferred)

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Finding: option of planting more trees has got highest no. of preferences. Then second
preference is to use of solar energy. Third preference is to use of renewable energy
sources, as shown in figure.
Q.9 Most people(124 out of 200) think that the awareness created about the global
environmental issues is quite enough to motivate them for its control measures. But still
there is a large no. of people who are not satisfied with the current awareness &
seriousness level in society about these issues.
Q.10 Most preferred mode of Environmental education by respondents

Finding: most preferred mode of environmental education is as an academic subject in

schools and colleges. TV programs, movies and internet are mostly preferred by
students and working professional preffered internet and newspapers. where as senior
citizens & housewives prefer newspapers and radio.
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RECOMMENDATIONS/ SUGGESTIONS FROM PEOPLE
Some main reasons behind these global environmental issues are Industrialization,
deforestation, fossil fuel burning, excess use of natural resources etc. some people also
feel that rapid Globalization and new technologies also contribute to the extent in
destruction of earth’s natural environment.
From this survey, following are the suggestions from the people:
 Strict rules & regulations should be made and followed by government.
 Promotion should be made through road shows, plays in schools & colleges,
movies in local language, arranging different awareness camps, newspaper
articles etc.
 Give some rewards to people who use more environment friendly products.
 Completely ban the plastic & plastic products. Give rise to use of recycled
products.
 Proper disposal of Industrial & other wastes. Rural & semi-urban people still face
the problem regarding household wastes. They don’t know where to decompose
the wastes as government has not provided any particular place or wastes
collecting vans in these areas. Due to this, people throw their household garbage
& dustbins on roadsides or in front of their homes, thus giving invitation to various
diseases. This contributes to air pollution. So, waste management technology
should be developed.
 Fine or punishment to people who break the environmental rules.
 Limit should be put on the emission of harmful gases such as CO2, CFC etc. on
Industries & fine if rule is not followed.
 The subject should be taught in schools as well as colleges at various levels.
 Research can be done on management of harmful gases, different wastes etc.
 Plantation should be motivated in society.
 Controlled use of limited natural resources & use renewable energy resources.
 Use of different pollution controlling equipments and technology
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

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  Time constraint: Time always has some limits and often hampers and adequate
field canvassing or its direction. This has particularly grave effects on the ability
to reach the certain respondents that would fulfill the sampling plans
 Money matters: It was difficult to visit the more areas if required because of the
travelling expenditure involved. Money virtually always falls short of what ideal
field work would cast and may require short cuts that jeopardize the validity of the
findings.
 Less time given by some respondents.
 Some respondents don’t use internet due to unavailability.
 Busy schedule of working professionals.

CONCLUSION
From this research, it is clear that current awareness level about global environmental
issues in society is quite low, especially in rural and semi-urban area. To create more
awareness, high level of promotional efforts is needed for sustainable existence of
human beings in future.

CHAPTER 7

CONCLUDING CHAPTERS

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CONCLUSION

Global Warming and other global environmental issues such as acid rain, climate
change, sea level rise, ozone hole etc. are a dramatically urgent and serious problems.
We don't need to wait for governments to find a solution for these problems. Each
individual can bring an important help adopting a more responsible lifestyle: starting
from little, everyday things. It's the only reasonable way to save our planet, before it is
too late.

We should Protect and conserve forest. worldwide Forests play a critical role in global
environmental issues: they store carbon. When forests are burned or cut down, their
stored carbon is release into the atmosphere - deforestation now accounts for about
20% of carbon dioxide emissions each year. 

We should try to make our city cool Cities and states around the country have taken
action to stop global warming and other issues by passing innovative transportation and
energy saving legislation.

We have to make sufficient promotional efforts. People must have a stronger

commitment from their government in order to stop global warming and other issues
related to global environment and implement solutions and such a commitment won’t
come without a dramatic increase in citizen lobbying for new laws with teeth..

LIMITATIONS OF STUDY

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1. There are more issues related to global environment. Considering all these
issues is time consuming and lengthy process. So, some issues are not
considered in the study.
2. Only rural and semi-urban area is considered in research. Urban city people are
not interviewed.

3. Date is not advanced as dependency on internet is more.

SCOPE OF STUDY

1. Creating environmental awareness and education.

2. Promotion of awareness

3. Promotion of environmental research

4. Efficient use of natural living resources

5. Promoting plantation, use of eco-friendly products

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 APPENDIX

BOOKS

1. Environmental management by N.K. Uberoi, Exel books, Delhi

2. Environmental management by Bala Krishnamurthy

3. Acedimic books provided by institute

WEBSITES

1. www.google.com
2. www.yahoo.com

3. www.telegraph.co.uk

4. www.thinkquest.org

5. www.news.scotsman.com

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