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EXAMINERS REPORT
September 2015
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
A.
B.
C.
Comparative pass rates for the past 3 years for this diet of examination
Year
September 2015
April 2015
September 2014
April 2014
September 2013
April 2013
Page 2
%
68
66
57
60
64
59
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
Reasons for any significant change in pass rates in current diet to those in the
past:
The pass rate for this examination diet is slightly higher than the April 2015 rate, but not
materially different. Variation in the pass rate between sessions is expected as different
cohorts of students sit the examination however the increasing rates in recent diets reflect
stronger performance from the candidates.
Solutions
Q1
(i)
(ii)
Since the sum of the two new claims is the same as those replaced, the mean is
the same.
However the sd has increased as the two new claims are further away from the
mean as compared to the two claims in the first sample.
Part (i) was generally well answered. In part (ii) the explanation about the sd
was not always convincing.
Q2
(i)
f y
1 y
y e
d
1
1
log f y
0 y
.
dy
y
Page 3
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
d2
1
Also
log
f
y
0.
dy 2
y2
So mode is at y
Therefore,
(ii)
1
3.
83
0.791 .
6.325
For unimodal symmetrical distributions, the mode will coincide with the mean
and therefore deviations of this measure from 0 will indicate asymmetry.
Also, the measure is standardised by dividing with the standard deviation to
make it scale-free.
Many candidates failed to work out the mode correctly. Note that this is a
typical calculus maximisation exercise. Part (ii) was not well answered, with
many candidates failing to comment on the relationship between the mean
and the mode, and very few mentioning the standardisation.
Q3
S12 12
/
~ F24,12 so the confidence interval is given by
S22 22
s12
2.4
s12
1
1
2.4
*
,
*
F
*
,
* 2.541 0.530, 4.066
2
12,24
2
s2 F24,12 s2
1.5 3.019 1.5
Generally very well answered.
Q4
(i)
We have
N 0,1 approximately, and the confidence interval is
n
given by
83
0.166
1.96 / 500 with
500
i.e. 0.166 1.96 0.166 / 500 which gives (0.130, 0.202).
Page 4
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
(ii)
Q5
(i)
(ii)
2606.96
0.1470326
5116701 61.44
r 25 2
1 r2
0.147 23
0.71
1 0.0216
Q6
SS R 49 7 2 6 2 9 2 8,134
26 22 27
25
3
SS B 50 26 25 22 25 27 25
F2,147
700
SS B
700 147
2
6.325
SS R
2 8134
147
This is clearly a rather large value since the 1% point from a F2,120 distribution is
4.787, so the null hypothesis is rejected. We conclude that alcohol consumption is
different in different areas.
Page 5
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
y 2A
yB 1,100
36, 201
SST = 8,834
yB2
yC 1,350
25,964
yC2
y 3, 750
40, 419
y 2 102,584
SSB = 700 ]
Mixed answers. Candidates who were able to calculate correctly the various
sums of squares did well. Note that the main answer provided here is
computationally more efficient than the alternative answer (which most
candidates preferred).
Q7
1
1 0 0 1 0
4
E Y |X 1
0
1
4
(i)
E X |Y 1
(ii)
E X |Y 1
(iii)
1 0 0
1
4
1 0 0
1
4
1
1
1
1 0
4 1
4 0 , E X |Y 0 4
1
2
2
1
4 0
E X E E X | Y E X | Y 1 P Y 1
E X | Y 0 P Y 0
E X | Y 1 P Y 1
1 1 1
1 1
and E X 0 0
4 2 2
4 4
Some reasonable answers, but generally a mixed performance. Note that the
question asks candidates to determine the various expectations, so working
needs to be shown to gain full marks.
Page 6
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
Q8
(i)
(ii)
P X A 1 P A P X B 1 P B P X C 1 P C
e0.2 *0.2*0.2 e0.1 *0.1*0.2 e0.05 *0.05*0.6 0.07938286 .
(iii)
(iv)
P X A 1 P A
P X 0 1
= e0.2 *0.2*
0.2
0.4125
0.0794
Let X 0 be the number of claims submitted last year, and X 1 be the number of
claims that will be submitted in the current year.
P[{ X 1 1} A|X 0 1] P[ X 1 1| A X 0 1 P A | X 0 1]
P[ X 1 1| A P A | X 0 1]
P X A 1 P A
P X 0 1
P[{ X 1 1} C |X 0 1] P X C 1
P B
P X 0 1
P C
P X 0 1
0.02062
0.01709
Page 7
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
Thus:
Q9
(i)
Part (i)
Part (ii)
Part (iii)
Part (iv)
(a)
(b)
(ii)
5
2.551
1.96
1.96
2
1 n 3.92 100
n
Let X1 and X 2 denote the survey estimates for the two peaks.
Then under H 0 : heights are the same,
D X 1 X 2 ~ N 0, 2 2 / 20 N 0, 2 /10
Page 8
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
sP2
1
19*2.52 19*2.62 6.505
20 20 2
test statistic =
1.6
1.6
1.984
2
1
2.55
sP
20
10
Both systems gave the same estimate of difference and almost the same
standard deviation, with the second being lower. However the tests gave
different results.
We did not reject that there was no difference for the test in part (iii) as there
was greater uncertainty since we did not know the standard deviation
beforehand.
Part (i) was generally well answered. As the result is given in the question,
candidates needed to clearly show how to obtain it.
The performance in parts (ii) and (iii) was mixed. Many candidates failed to
demonstrate understanding of which statistic must be used in each of the two
tests, which was one of the main points of the question.
Q10
(i)
We have
X
e X i e n i i
and
L
Xi !
Xi !
i 1
n
i
i
and
d
l 0 n X i / 0 X i / n X
d
i
i
Page 9
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
(ii)
1
d2
E 2 l
d
E X i / 2
i
E( X i ) n
i
, i.e. X 1.96
and replacing for the variance: 1.96
n
n
[Could also use central limit theorem with normal approximation to Poisson]
(iii)
(a)
L e K 1 e
n K
l log L K n K log 1 e
and
d
e
log K
l 0 K n K
0
d
1 e
n
(b)
(iv)
The estimator in part (i) is based on more information, as the exact values of
the data are known, whereas in part (iii) only partial information is available.
Therefore the estimator in part (i) should be more reliable and is preferable.
Parts (i) and (ii) mostly well answered. In part (iii) many candidates did not
use the correct likelihood form. Answers to questions involving the likelihood
function of a model that may not be typical, have also been problematic in
recent sessions and candidates are encouraged to practise more with this
fundamental concept in statistics.
Page 10
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
Q11
(i)
Test statistic:
2
Snew
2
Sold
2
Snew
2
Sold
~ F24,60
1
1
xi2 25 xi
24
25
800 25*42
16.67
24
2, 200 3002 / 61
= 12.08
60
16.67
1.38 1.7
12.08
Therefore, there is no evidence (at 5% level) to suggest that the variance for
new buildings is larger.
(ii)
24 16.67 60 12.08
13.39
84
100 300
25 61
t
1.06
1
1
13.39
25 61
The 0.975 quantile (2-sided test) of the t84 distribution is between 1.98 and
2.00.
There is no evidence to suggest that the mean maintenance costs of new
buildings are different from mean maintenance costs of old buildings.
[Alternatively, if we samples are considered large, we can use the z statistic:
z
(iii)
4 4.92
0.987 ]
16.67 12.05
25
61
Sax ai xi
1
1
ai xi 30, 000 4,500*300 7,869
61
61
Page 11
Subject CT3 (Probability and Mathematical Statistics Core Technical) September 2015 Examiners Report
A, X
(iv)
Sax
Saa S xx
7,869
0.7
174, 433*724.6
480, 000
0.04511
10, 640, 400
7,869
0.04511
174, 433
300 0.04511*4,500
1.59
61
4500
Page 12