Population growth

&
Consumption of resources
1. Exponential growth model
2. Logistic growth model

Chapter 3: Masters & Ela

Out of 7 billions

Poverty

1/5 in bad health

Cannot Stand
Already!!!

Beh Tahan !!!

Exponential growth model

Exponential growth is the growth of a system in
which the amount being added to the system is
proportional to the amount already present: the
bigger the system is, the greater the increase.
Exponential function is a very useful mathematical
tool used in environmental studies, e.g. population
growth, resource consumption, pollution
accumulation and radioactive decay.

It is a first-order rate process and overall the

exponential growth can be given as N = N0ert

Exponential growth model

N0=initial number of
species,
Nt = number of
species after time t,
and r = growth rate,
General forms:

Nt = N0(1 + r)t
N = N0ert

Annual compounding (discrete, year-by-year increases)

Suppose something grows by a fixed percentage per year.

Imagine our saving at a bank earning 5% interest each year,

compounded once a year, then the amount of increase in savings over
any given year is 5% of the amount available at the beginning of that
year.
If we start now with RM1000, then at the end of one year we would
have RM1050. At the end of two years, we would have RM1102.50
(5% x 1050 + 1050); and so on.
N1= N0(1+r); N2 = N1(1+r) = N0(1+r)2
General form: Nt = N0(1+r)t

N0 = initial amount
Nt = amount after t years
r = growth rate (fraction per year)

Continuous compounding (continuous growth)

For most events of interest in the environment, it is usually assumed
that the growth curve is a smooth, continuous function. This is
referred to as continuous compounding.
The rate of change of the quantity N is proportional to N. The
proportionality constant r is called the rate of growth and has units of
time-1.
integration

N = N0ert

Example: Starting with the 2005 electricity consumption of 4.0 x

1012 kWhr/yr, what would consumption be in 2050 if the growth
rate remains constant at 1.8 percent?
N = N0ert
N = 4.0 x 1012 x e0.018 x 45
N = 8.99 x 1012 kWhr/yr

Doubling time
A quantity that is growing
exponentially requires a
fixed amount of time to
double in size, regardless
of the starting point.
It takes the same amount
of time to grow from N0
to 2N0 and from 2N0 to
4N0.
2N0 = N0ert , where td is
doubling time (td = ln2/r)
d

When the rate

of decrease of
a quantity is
proportional
to the amount
present,
exponential
growth
becomes
exponential
decay.
N = N0e-kt

Exponential Decay

k= reaction rate
constant (time-1)
Half life, t1/2 = ln2 / k

Half-life
Half-life, t ,is the time required for half of a substance to decay

into other elements. Example : if half life is 1 year and initial mass
of the substance is 100 grams, then after 1 year 50 grams will
remain; 25 g after another year and so on.
This concept is especially useful for radioactive isotopes (Table 2.6,
Masters & Ela)
Exponential decay rate can be described using a reaction rate
coefficient (k, time-1) or a half-life (t ).

Disaggregated Growth Rates; a product of a

number of individual factors:

GDP = Gross domestic product

Affluence is
energy
demand per
person

Technology is
the carbon
emissions per
unit of energy

If each factor grows exponentially, Pi=pierit , then the total rate of growth
is the sum of the individual rates (r=r1 + r2 + r3+ rn).
Final estimating growth: P=Poert

Resource consumption
When a mineral is extracted from the
Earth, we will say the resource is
being produced.

Q = Total resource produced from

time 0 to time t
Po= initial production rate
r = exponential growth rate in
production

According to this model, if

resource production continues to
grow exponentially for a long
period of time, the number
becomes unrealistically large.

Then time required to produce

amount of resource ,Q, can be
estimated:

Example 3.6 World Coal Production

World coal production in 2005 was estimated to be 6.1 billion (short)
tons per year, and the estimated total recoverable reserves of coal
were estimated at 1.1 trillion tons. Growth in world coal production in
the previous decade averaged 1.9 percent per year. How long would
it take to use up those reserves at current production rates, and how
long would it take if production continues to grow at 1.9 percent?
At those rates (constant production rate), coal reserves would last
Reserves/production = (1.1 x 1012 tons)/ (6.1 x 1019 tons/yr) = 180 years
If production grows exponentially, we need to use

t = 78 years

Even though the growth rate of 1.9 percent might seen modest, compared
to a constant production rate, it cuts the length of time to deplete those
reserves by more than half.

A radioactive chemical has an activity of 10,000Bq. What is the

activity of this chemical after 2 half-lives have passed?
After 2 half-lives, the activity is 2,500Bq.
10,000 5000 2500

228Ac

has a half life of 6.13 hours. How much of a 5.0 mg

sample would remain after one day?
t1/2 = ln2 / k
Reaction rate coefficient, k = ln2 / t1/2 = ln2 / 6.13 = 0.113 /hour
N=Noe-kt = 5mg x e-0.113 x 24 = 0.33 mg

World population in 1850 has been estimated at about

0.5 billion. World population reached 4 billion in 1975. If
we assume exponential growth at a constant rate over
that period of time, what would that growth rate be?

Suppose world carbon emission are expressed as the following

product:
Carbon emission = (energy/person) x (carbon/energy) x (population)

If per capita energy demand increases at 1.5 percent per year,

fossil fuel emissions of carbon per unit of energy increase at 1
percent per year, and world population grows at 1.5 percent per
year. Total carbon emission in 1990 was 5 x 109 tonnes C/yr, what
would the carbon emission rate in 2020.

The overall growth rate, r = 1.5 + 1.0 + 1.5 = 4.0 percent

Carbon emission rate in 2020 = 5 x 109 x e0.04x30
= 1.66 X 1010 tonnes C/yr

Logistic growth

Such growth indicates that initially the rate is exponential

followed by slower rates as the population reaches its carrying
capacity (K). It is a common successful method in biological
and microbiological studies to reflect growth of living
organisms.

For projections of population growth,

a logistic or S-shaped (sigmoidal)
growth curve is normally used.

The logistic curve is derived

from the following differential
equation
N (t

where N=the population size,

K=the carrying capacity, r=the
exponential growth rate
(1-N/K) = environmental
resistance

 The factor (1 N/K) = the environmental resistance, as

the population grows, the resistance to further
population growth continuously increases.
To calculate the population at time t

To find r, a factor of instantaneous rate constant, R0,

is introduced:

If carrying capacity is known then it is possible to

estimate time required for certain population increase.

Example 3.8 Logistic Human Population Growth

Suppose the human population follows a logistic curve until it
stabilizes at 15.0 billion. In 2006, the worlds population was 6.6
billion, and its growth rate was 1.2 percent. When would the
population reach 7.5 billion one half of its assumed carrying
capacity?
Find r using

The time required to reach a population of 7.5 billion

The Earth would reach one-half its carrying capacity in 2017.

For logistic growth, the maximum sustainable yield is

obtained when the population is half the carrying
capacity, N* = K/2.
The maximum sustainable yield is the maximum rate
that individuals can be harvested (removed) without
reducing the population size.

Eq3.29
Express in term of the current growth rate, Ro and current size, No:

Eq3.30

 The maximum number of individuals that can be harvested right now

that will allow the population to return to its carrying capacity as quickly
as possible, making it ready for another productive harvest.
When a population is exactly halfway to its carrying capacity, it is
growing at its fastest rate. This means that if we stop harvesting at half
its carrying capacity, the population can quickly recover and allow for a
successful harvest time after time.

Example:
A population of 50 sheep doubled in population size after 1 year and
reached stability at 3000 sheep after a few years. Considering that such
growth is logistic, we can estimate maximum sustainable yield:
1) Find R0 from the doubling time equation
R0 = ln2/td = ln2 / 1 year = 0.693/yr;
2) carrying capacity, K = 3000 ,since the size remains steady for some
time and
N0 = 50
3) As the initial population, N0 is small relative to the carrying capacity, K
(N<<K); the instantaneous growth rate constant, R0 is approximately equal
to the growth rate constant, r, when there is no environment resistance (r
R0).
Use Eq 3.30 and obtain 528 sheep a year.

Human population growth, definitions:

Crude birth rate, b, which is the number of live births
per 1000 population in a given year. In the
developing countries this rate reaches 30-40, and in
developed countries it is about 10.
Crude Death Rate, d, which is the number of deaths
per 1000 population per year.
Infant mortality rate, the number of deaths to infants
(under one year old) per 1000 live births in a given
year. One of the best indicators of poverty in a
country.

Example: In 2006, over 80 % of the worlds population, some 5.3

billion people, lived in the less developed countries of the world.
In those countries, the average crude birth rate was 23, crude
death rate was 8, and the infant mortality rate was 53. What
fraction of the total deaths is due to infant mortality?
Total live birth = Population x crude birth rate
= 5.3 x 109 x (23/1000)
= 121.9 x 106 per year
Infant death = Total birth x Infant mortality rate
= 121.9 x 106 x (53/1000)
= 6.5 x 106 per year
Total death = Population x Crude death rate
= 5.3 x 109 x (8/1000)
= 42.4 x 106 per year
Fraction infants = 6.5 / 42.4 = 0.15 = 15 percent

Human population growth, definitions:

Rate of natural increase, r is the difference between
crude birth rate and crude death rate.
r=bd
Net migration rate, m, is the difference between
immigration and emigration
r= b d + m

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of

children that would be born alive to a woman, assuming
that current age-specific birth rates remain constant
through the womans reproductive years (how many
children each woman is likely to have in her lifetime).

Human population growth, definitions:

Replacement level fertility is the number of children
that a woman must have, on the average, to replace
herself with daughter in the next generation. It
accounts for differences in the ratio of male to
female births as well as child mortality rates
By definition, replacement is only considered to have
occurred when the offspring reach 15 years of age.

Age structure
Age structure reflects a countrys population trends (a
population pyramid showing year of the births and
number of women and men born in those years).
A graphical presentation of the data indicating
numbers of people (or % of the population) in each age
category is called age structure or population pyramid.
We can picture a populations age structure as a pile of
blocks, one for each age group, with the size of each
block representing the number of people in that group.
Four general types: a pyramid, a column, an inverted
pyramid, and a column with a bulge

Age and sex distribution

Slightly more boys in the younger age groups than girls;

however, the ratio tends to reverse in the upper age groups, as
females tend to outnumber males. Many countries have a
female majority as a result of the longer life expectancy for
females.
Notice that at about age 35, the majority changes.

A Pyramid

The pyramid age structure occurs in a population that has many

young people and a high death rate at each age, and therefore a
high birth rate, characteristic of a rapidly growing population and
also of a population with a relatively short average lifetime.

A Column

A column shape occurs where the birth rate and death rate
are low and a high percentage of the population is elderly.

An Inverted Pyramid

An inverted pyramid occurs when a population has more older than

younger people.
Japan has the largest elderly population in the world. In one respect
that is good. But less good is not having babies, and a situation of
out-migration almost as large as in-migration into the country. Japanese
marriage customs make most young Japanese women disinterested in
marrying into a family where they might be dominated by their mother
in law. As a result, Japans birth rate is far below a replacement level.
By 2055 the age pyramid will likely be inverted.

A column with a bulge

A bulge occurs if some event in the past caused a high birth

rate or death rate for some age group but not others.
China had an extreme youth bulge when it sharply curbed
partly as an effect of the one-child policy.

Kenyas pyramid-shaped reveals a rapidly growing population heavily

weighted toward youth. About 34% of the populations are under 15 years of
age. Such an age structure indicates that the population will grow very
rapidly in the future, when the young reach marriage and reproductive ages.
For the U.S., the age structure is more like a column, showing a population
with slow growth.
Italys top-heavy pyramid shows a nation with declining growth.

Factors limiting growth of population:

Short-term factor is the disruption of food
distribution in a country, commonly caused by
drought, energy shortage for food transportation.
Intermediate-term factors include desertification,
dispersal of toxic pollutants; disruption of energy
supplies;
Long-term factors include soil erosion, a decline in
groundwater supplies, and climate change.

Natural disasters of high magnitude (e.g. tsunami,

earthquake) can result in significant sudden
decrease of population.

Actual situation
on human
population
growth
Example: Human population in 1960
was 3 billion with a growth rate of
1.2%. Estimate population size in
2010.
N0 = 3x109; r=0.012; t=50 yrs
N = N0xert = 5.5 x109
Use the same data and assume that
human population growth follows a
logistic model where K=150
billions.

The following statistics are for India in 1985: population, 762 million;
crude birth rate, 34; crude death rate, 13; infant mortality rate, 118
(rates are per thousand per year). Find
(a) The fraction of the total deaths that are infants less than 1 year old
(b) The avoidable deaths, assuming that any infant mortality above 10
could be avoided with better sanitation, food, and health care; and
(c) The annual increase in the number of people in India
Total birth = 762 x 106 x (34/1000) = 25.9 million/yr
Infant death = Total birth x Infant mortality rate = 25.9 x 106 x (118/1000)
= 3.06 million/yr
Total death = 762 x 106 x (13/1000) = 9.91 million/yr
Fraction infants = 3.06/9.91 = 0.31 = 31 percent

Infant death = 25.9 x 106 x (10/1000) = 0.259 million/yr

Avoidable deaths = 3.06 0.259 = 2.801 million/yr

Annual increase = population x net of natural increase

= 762 x 106 x ((34-13)/1000)
= 16 million/yr

Suppose some sewage drifting down a stream

decomposes with a reaction rate coefficient k equal to
0.2/day. What would be the half-life of this sewage? How
many percent of waste would be left after 5 days?

t1/2 = ln2 / k = 3.466 days

N=Noe-kt
N/No = 0.368
About 37% sewage remains.

Resource consumption
World reserves of chromium are about 800 million tons, and current
usage is about 2 million tons per year. If growth in demand for
chromium increases exponentially at a constant rate of 2.6 percent
per year, how long would it take to use up current reserves? Suppose
the total resource is five times current reserves; if the use rate
continues to grow at 2.6 percent, how long would it take to use up the
resource?
Time = 93.6 years

If the total resource is five times current reserves,

t = 152.7 years

Multiply reserves by five times only increase the lifetime by a factor

of 1.6.

Suppose human population grows from 6.3 billion in 2000

to an ultimate population of 10.3 billion following the
logistic curve. Assuming a growth rate of 1.5 percent in
2000, when would the population reach 9 billion? What
would the population be in 2050?

r = 0.0386

t = 38.4 years