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3
Exam Paper
a)
b)
__
1
Lets see if you can do these basic probabilities without any fancy techniques:
1. A regular die is rolled. Find:
1
a) P(1) - (the probability of getting a 1) = _
6
Probability
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Exam Paper
1 _
1 _
1
c) P (3 or 4) - (the probability of getting a 3 or 4 ) =__
6+ 6 = 3
1 5
6
d) P (not a 2) = 1- _
6 = _
3 1
2
e) P (even) = _
6 = _
2. A card is drawn from a normal pack of 52 cards (No jokers included) Find:
A
A
4
1
13
a) P (Ace) = __
52= __
13 1
4
b) P (Heart) = __
52= _
16 4
13
c) P (Ace or a Heart) = __
52= __
A
A
1
__
d) P (Ace and a Heart) = 52
A
1
e) P (Red) = _
2
Remember that if A is an event, then A is called the complement of A, and means not A.
Also P(A) + P(A) = 1
4
So P(Heart) = __
52
48
P (Heart) = P (not a heart) = __
52
4 48
52= 1
and __
52+ __
Two events which have no outcomes in common are called MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE events.
For example:
1) P (Heart or Diamond)
= P(Heart) + P(Diamond)
13 13
52
= __
52+ __
26
= __
52
1
= _
2
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Probability
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Exam Paper
11) P (roll a 1 or roll a 3)
1 1
6
=_
6 + _
= 2/6
1
=_
3
P (King or a Heart)?
4
P (King) = __
52
13
P (Heart) = __
52
Now can you see that the card King of Hearts (which is a heart and a king has been counted into both
categories (so counted in twice)
4 13 __
1
52- 52
= __
52+ __
16
= __
52
4
= __
13
3 1
2 { 2 ; 4; 6}
P (Even) = _
6 = _
5
1 __
1 _
1 _
=
P (Prime or Even) = _
2 2 6 6
Clearly the only number not allowed is the number 1.
We can also see this in a Venn-Diagram
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Probability
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Exam Paper
250
M a t hs
130
Science
80
30
10
210
P (Maths) = ___
250= 0,84
80
210 110 ___
250- 250
= ___
250+ ___
240
= ___
250 Must subtract off P (MS) - the intersection
= 0,96
Sometimes we are interested not in one outcome, but in two or three or more of them. For example, we
may toss a coin twice, or select two or 3 cards from a pack or take 3 beads from a bag containing
different colours
Drawing up a TREE DIAGRAM is usually useful to assist with these kinds of problems
Example 1
A coin is tossed and H or T is recorded. Find the probability of getting two heads and a tail (this means
in any order)
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Probability
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Exam Paper
Toss 1
Toss 2
Toss 3
P(H)
P(H)
_
1
_
1
P(Head)
P(T)
_
1
P(T)
P(H)
P(T)
P(H)
_
1
1
__
(H; H; H)
8
_
1
(H; H; T) __1
_
1
1
__
(H; T; H)
8
1
__
(H; T; T)
8
_
1
_
1
P(Tail)
_
1
P(H)
P(T)
_
1
_
1
3
\ P (two heads and a tail) = __
18 + __
18 + __
18 = __
8
P(T)
P(H)
1
__
(T; H; H)
8
_
1
1
__
(T; H; T)
8
_
1
1
__
(T; T; H)
_
1
1
__
(T;T; T)
8
P(T)
Example 2
Draw 1
Draw 2
__
4
P (King)
P (not a King)
P (King)
4
__
52
1
(K;K) = ___
169
48
__
12
(K; not K) = ___
169
4
__
52
12
(not K;K) = ___
169
48
__
144
(not K; not K) = ___
169
52
P (Not a King) 52
P (King)
48
__
52
P (Not a King)
52
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Probability
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Exam Paper
1
1) P (K;K) = ___
169
12
24
12
169= ___
169= 0,142
2) P (one King) = ___
169+ ___
Can you see in the previous two examples when we came to toss the coin the second time or draw the
second card - there was no effect of the first result on the second? When this happens the two events
are said to be INDEPENDENT
For two INDEPENDENT events
P (A and B) = P (A). P (B)
So these are INDEPENDENT EVENTS:
1) Toss a coin twice
2) Toss a die four (or however many) times
3) Toss a coin, roll a die
4) Pick cards from a pack WITH replacement
5) Choose sweets from a bag WITH replacement
Question 1
P (A) = 0,2
P (B) = 0,5
P (A and B) = 0,1
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Probability
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Exam Paper
Example 2
A weather forecaster classifies all days as either wet or dry. He claims that the probability that 1 September
will be wet is 0,4. If any particular day in September is wet, the probability that the next day is wet is 0,5;
otherwise the probability that the next day is wet is 0,3. Find the probability that:
1 Sep
2 Sep
P (wet)
0,5
0,4
P (wet)
P (dry)
Key
0,5
0,7
P (dry)
0,6
P (wet)
(1 - 0,4)
= P (dry)
= 0,6
(1 - 0,3)
= P (second day dry)
= 0,7
0,3
= 0,38
Example 3
P (A) = 0,25 and P (B) = 0,5 and P (A and B) = 0,15
a) Are events A and B independent?
b) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
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Probability
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Exam Paper
a) P(A) x P (B) = 0,25 x 0,5 = 0,125
P (A and B) = 0,15
P (A) + P (B)
Example 4
Another way that we use to decide on Independence is by using a CONTINGENCY TABLE
4a) Let us look at this table which gives information about Males and Females and whether they prefer
Red, Blue or Yellow
Male
Female
Total
Red
20
50
70
Blue
40
20
60
Yellow
50
20
70
Total
110
90
200
This is called a two-way 2x3 Contingency Table . It has 2 rows and 3 columns.
Can you see that we could get the following from the table?
110
1) P (Male) = ___
200= 0,55
60
2) P (Blue) = ___
200= 0,3
40
3) P (Blue and Male) = ___
200= 0,2
60 110 ___
40 130
200- 200= ___
200
= 0,65
4) P (Blue or Male) = ___
200+ ___
70
90
63
200= ___
400= 0,1575
P (Female) x P (Red) = ___
200x ___
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3
Exam Paper
Probability
4b) Research with regard to the effects of a new headache tablet involving 100 males and 80 females
showed that 60 males and 50 females responded positively to the tablet. Can we conclude that the
success of the tablet is independent of gender?
Positive
Not Positive
Total
Male
60
40
100
Female
50
30
80
Total
110
70
180
100
P (Male) = ___
180
80
P (Female) = ___
180
110
P (Positive) = ___
180
70
P (not Positive) = ___
180
60
P (Male and Positive) = ___
180= 0,3
100 ___
110
P (Male) x P (Positive) = ___
180x 180= 0,34
80 110
180= 0,2716
P (Female) x P (Positive) = ___
180x ___
1
= ___
221
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Probability
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Exam Paper
So what if we drew two cards and wanted the probability of one King.? The tree diagram would look as
follows:
1st Draw
2nd Draw
P (King)
__
4
3
__
51
52
P (King)
P (not King)
48
__
P (not King)
51
P (King)
4
__
51
48
__
52
P (not King)
47
__
51
32
= ___
221
3 ___
4 __
1
Please note: P (K,K) = __
52x 51= 221
48 ___
16
4 __
P (K, not K) = __
52x 51= 221
48 __
16
4 ___
P (not K; K)
= __
52x 51= 221
47 ___
48 __
188
P (not K; not K) = __
52x 51= 221
16 ___
16 ___
188 ____
221
1
___
now ___
221+ 221+ 221+ 221=221= 1
A method that we can use to help us organise the relationships between events so that we can make
conclusions about probabilities, mutually exclusive and / or independence is called a VENN-DIAGRAM.
The best way to get to understand how useful they are is with an example or two:
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Probability
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Exam Paper
Example 1
B
x
0,28 y
now
x + 0,28 = 0,7
x = 0,42
and
y + 0,28 = 0,4
y = 0,12
P (AB) = 0,28
Sometimes we get given the picture organiser and we are asked to interpret it.
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Probability
3
Exam Paper
R
12
54
108
36
6
18
134
97
J
Example 2
A survey was conducted to determine the preferences for three different music types
Rock (R), Classic (C), Jazz (J)
1) How many people were surveyed?
2) How many people preferred Rock (R) only?
3) What percentage of people surveyed like all three types?
4) What percentage liked Rock (R) or Classic (C)?
5) 134 do not like music at all. Is this statement true or false? Motivate your answer.
6) Find P (RC)
1) 465
2) 108
36
3) ___
465= 0,0774 = 7,74%
234
108 + 12+ 36 + 6 + 54 + 18 ___
4) ____________________
= = 0,503 = 50,3%
46
465
5) False. They may well like other kinds of music - they just dont like these three.
97+134 ___
77
= 155= 0,4968
6) ______
465
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