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 CONTENTS

Contents iii
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 1
Climate Change or Global Warming? ............................................................................................................. 3
Lovelock and Gaia ............................................................................................................................................ 3
Climate Change, Temperature, and CO2 .................................................................................................. 9
Is the Debate Really Over? .............................................................................................................................. 16
Where Do We Go From Here? ....................................................................................................................... 20
Bangladesh ........................................................................................................................................................... 21
Geographic Location .................................................................................................................................... 23
Physiography .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Natural Disasters ........................................................................................................................................... 24
Causes of Natural Disasters .................................................................................................................. 26
Rainfall and Drought .......................................................................................................................... 28
Cyclones ................................................................................................................................................... 29
The Effects of Climate change ......................................................................................................... 29
Ice Caps, Glaciers, and Sea Levels ............................................................................................. 29
Changes in Rainfall and Flooding.............................................................................................. 31
Wasted Water and Floods............................................................................................................ 34
Flooding – A Man-made Disaster: BANGLADESH & Bihar .............................................. 37
Global Warming and Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 42
Climate Change and Plant Migration ..................................................................................................... 46
Global Warming and Water ....................................................................................................................... 47
Droughts....................................................................................................................................................... 50
Hunger ..................................................................................................................................................... 53
The Future ............................................................................................................................................................ 55
Works Cited .......................................................................................................................................................... 57
An Invitation ........................................................................................................................................................ 64

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 INTRODUCTION
As a boy growing up in Michigan, I was the beneficiary of a wide range of habitats. Behind
my home were hay fields, the ‘woods,’ and the ‘swamp.’ Across the road from my home was
‘the lake.’ Together they were the perfect venue for a boy growing up. My entire world, at
the time, revolved around my rural hamlet, a lakeside summer escape for many urban-
dwellers. After decades of wandering around the country and world, for the sake of school-
ing and employment, I returned to my hometown.

The hometown I had known was gone, replaced by apartment complexes and mercantiles.
Gone were the fields behind my home – now the land was filled with new homes,
landscaped thoroughfares, and manicured lawns. The ‘woods,’ where I had explored and
hunted, was just a remnant of its former self. The swamp, where I had collected frog eggs
and tadpoles, was now high and dry. The lake was ‘down.’ My hometown had grown into a
bedroom community for a city that had always seemed ‘so very far away.’ In reality, it was
only 10 miles away, but as a youth, it seemed so much farther. With advent of the inter-
state, it was a fifteen minute drive. Now, it took less time to drive to the city than it had tak-
en me to walk to school, a trip I had made twice a day for the better part of my youth.

I had not given my hometown environment a lot of thought, and as a young man, I had not
even contemplated it ever really changing. Over the 30+ years that had intervened between
my departure and return, everything about my hometown had changed. It was no longer
the quaint lakeside community I had enjoyed during my ‘growing-up years.’ I began to
process and analyze the changes. In the final analysis, the sociological changes I saw were

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inevitable. The environmental changes may have been inevitable as well but they seemed
more profound.

While we generally see environmental change as the by-product of ‘development,’ I have

come to the belated conclusion that, while Humankind Mankind1 has wrought a certain
amount of havoc on the environment, we are not alone. As human beings, we have lulled or
deluded ourselves into the belief that we are the primary agents of change on the face of
the Earth through the aegis of technology.2 This attitude, especially strong in Western civi-
lization, has been with us since at least Medieval times, and that egotism has roots that un-
doubtedly extend back to well before the Greeks.3

It is time to accept the fact that we are not alone in changing the face of the Earth. I am not
sure I can fully subscribe to the notion that Earth is somehow a sentient entity, as some
would have us believe, or something akin to James Cameron’s Pandora, a lush moon of a
gas giant in the Alpha Centauri star system. However, I do completely agree that to try and
somehow ‘take the Earth out of the equation’ is nothing less than hubris on Mankind’s part.
There is a cliché that goes: You cannot fool Mother Nature. Cliché or not, there is an abun-
dance of truth in that statement. Earth has been regulating itself for billions of years, res-
ponding to cataclysmic events, such as asteroid and comet impacts, as well as volcanic
eruptions and their consequences. Within the context of geologic time, Mankind has existed
less than a blink of an eye but during that brief time, we have successfully undone much of
what it took millions of years for Earth to do on her own.

As a young man, I did not see, nor did I feel, the rhythmic pulsations of the Earth but time
and experience have made me aware, or at least a bit more sensitive. Viewed from space,
our planet is unique. It is blue – a water rich world. For me, however, and possibly even
more important, it is surrounded with a protective layer we call the atmosphere, a gossa-
mer layer. I have come to see the atmosphere as being much like what the New Agers call
one’s aura. It pulses, expands and contracts, changes colors, and illuminates, all in response
to what is happening on the Earth’s surface or in response to the space that surrounds it. It
may not be a sentient, living being but it is dynamic, oftentimes exhibiting lifelike res-
ponses to the pressures and stresses placed on it. It is alive and responsive, and seems to
have the capacity to regulate itself. Presently, Earth is in a life or death struggle with the
human race, a battle that Mankind will almost inevitably lose, just as so many other species
have in the past.4

1 I am sorry but Humankind just does not sound right. It’s like ‘personhole cover’ for manhole cover. We just
don’t have to be that politically correct and Mankind is neither sexist nor pejorative in my mind.
2 See (Thomas, Willam L., Jr., (ed), 1956 [1971]).
3 See (Rorabacher, 1973).
4 (Raup, 1991) suggests that the flora and fauna that form today’s biodiversity are but a microscopic remnant of
all the life forms that once inhabited Earth, and may represent just 0.1% of all the species that ever lived.
Thus, 99.9% if all the life that has existed on Earth is now extinct.

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 OUR WATER RICH HOME - EARTH

CLIMATE CHANGE OR GLOBAL WARMING?

There is no longer any legitimate debate over whether or not climate change is real. That
stage of the problem has become a closed book. The two sides to that discussion have ig-
nored one another’s arguments, each citing ‘their’ evidence; and based on the political sup-
port for the global warming advocates, there is no doubt that global warming now enjoys
the status of undeniable truth. It is now a fact, gospel. The question, then, is what can be
done about it?

Based on the number of worldwide forums, conferences, and summits, each spewing out
heady reports, statements, accords and protocols, one would think that everyone would
have subscribed to the notion that we are in the midst of a cataclysmic and reversible
change. There can be no doubt that it will be cataclysmic. The only real question is whether
it is reversible.

LOVELOCK AND GAIA

James Lovelock suggests that the biosphere and the physical components of the Earth are
closely integrated to form a complex interacting system that maintains the climatic and
biogeochemical conditions on Earth in a preferred homeostasis.5 This idea is frequently de-

5 (Lovelock, 2006). See also, (Lovelock, 2009).

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scribed as viewing the Earth as a single organism. Lovelock and other supporters of this
line of thinking now call it the Gaia theory, regarding it as a scientific theory and not merely
a hypothesis, since they believe it has passed the required predictive tests.6

JAMES LOVELOCK AND GAIA

Under Gaia, Earth behaves much as if it were a single, self-regulating system or organism,
with physical, chemical, biological, and human components. The interactions and feedbacks
between the component parts are complex and exhibit multi-scale temporal and spatial va-
riability. Human activities have significantly influenced Earth's environment in many ways.
Anthropogenic changes to Earth's land surface, oceans, coasts and atmosphere and to bio-
logical diversity, the water cycle and biogeochemical cycles are clearly identifiable beyond
natural variability. They are equal to some of the greatest forces of nature in their extent
and impact. Many are accelerating. Global change is real and is happening now.

Best guess estimates place the age of Earth at around 4.5 billion years. Until very recently,
for billions of years, animal species evolved, most becoming extinct, continents drifted,
there was a regular cycle of ice ages followed by warmer periods, global temperatures rose
and fell, along with CO2 concentrations. These changes were gradual but incessant, taking
thousands or millions of years to complete.

The pace of these changes, at least for plants and animals, quickened as Man’s technology
evolved. In the last 5 – 10,000 years, the pattern of vegetation and faunal species extinc-
tions has accelerated at an unprecedented rate. This pattern of extinctions is contempora-
neous with the rise of animal and plant domestication – animal husbandry and agriculture.

As the only species capable of destroying the planet, we have an obligation to try to protect
every surviving species that occupies it. We are left with a fraction of all the life forms that

6 (Lovelock, 2009), p. 7.

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once occupied the planet. For every species going extinct, including humans, it is because of
our unbridled activity and not because of any other natural process. The maintenance of
Earth’s biodiversity is essentially maintaining life on Earth, as we know it. Its maintenance,
its conservation, is a prerequisite for sustainable development and, for this reason; it con-
stitutes one of the greatest challenges of our time.

OUR CONCERN FOR BIODIVERSITY HAS BOTH A PHILOSOPHICAL AS WELL AS A

PRAGMATIC BASIS. PHILOSOPHICALLY, BIODIVERSITY IS SIMPLY WORTH PRO-
TECTING REGARDLESS OF ITS VALUE OR UTILITY TO HUMANS, BECAUSE IT IS IN-
TRINSICALLY VALUABLE. ALL SPECIES HAVE THE INHERENT RIGHT TO SURVIVE.
HUMANS ARE A PART OF THE TAPESTRY OF NATURE BUT WE HAVE THE CAPACI-
TY TO PROTECT OR DESTROY IT. PRACTICALLY, IN THE PROCESS OF DESTROYING
NATURE, WE WILL PUT OURSELVES AT RISK. THEREFORE, WE HAVE BOTH A PHI-
LOSOPHICAL AND A PRACTICAL BASIS FOR ENSURING THE BIODIVERSITY OF THE
PLANET. 7

Global change cannot be understood in terms of a simple cause-and-effect paradigm, how-

ever. Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that have impacts throughout the
Earth’s many layers of life. These effects interact with one another, with local- and regional-
scale changes in multidimensional patterns that are difficult to understand and even more
difficult to predict. Human activities may have inadvertently triggered such changes with
severe consequences for Earth's environment and its inhabitants. Earth has operated in dif-
ferent states over the last half million years, with abrupt transitions (a decade or less)
sometimes occurring between them. Human activity has the potential to change this pat-
tern and initiate alternative modes of operation that may prove irreversible and less hos-
pitable to humans and other life forms. The probability of a human-driven abrupt change in
Earth's environment has yet to be accurately and completely quantified but it is not neglig-
ible. In terms of some key environmental parameters, Earth has moved well outside the
range of the natural variability exhibited over the last half million years, or so. The nature
of those changes, now occurring simultaneously on Earth, are unprecedented. The Earth is
currently operating in, what might be termed, a no-analogue state.

Upon the urging of the Swedish climatologist, Bert Bolin, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The IPCC is a scientific
intergovernmental body charged with evaluating the risk of climate change caused by hu-
man activity. Since its inception, thousands of scientists have been collecting and analyzing
information regarding the ongoing changes in Earth’s atmosphere. Based on these data, the
IPCC has issued four reports.8

7 See (Rorabacher, Hunger and Poverty in South Asia, 2010), pp. 288-293, passim.
8 See, (IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (AR4), 2008), (IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001:
Synthesis Report (TAR), 2001), (IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995 (SAR), 1996), and
(IPCC First Assessment Report 1990 (FAR), 1990).

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The original mandate of the IPCC read:

Undertake in a comprehensive and objective manner, periodic

assessments of the scientific, technical and socio-economic in-
formation relevant to understanding the scientific basis of the
risks of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and
options for adaptation and mitigation.9 [Emphasis added].

The Australian delegation suggested the removal of the underlined portion of the original
mandate. This change was later approved but not until after 21 years as the operating prin-
ciple of the organization. The four (or five) words – the risks of human-induced – are pejora-
tive. They herald the focus of the group’s efforts and reflect the presumption that humans
are the cause of climate change. With this in mind, it is easy to see why the IPCC, whether
intentionally or unintentionally, was predisposed to the acceptance of any information or
data that supported this contention. In essence, the IPCC had formulated a self-fulfilling
prophecy.

The data collected in support of this premise, proved the assumption was correct and that
this change is accelerating. The data, however, are not without their flaws. They are often
contradictory and unreliable; and for this reason, they are not amenable to the formulation
of clear-cut, absolute, and defensible theories, hypotheses, or policy statements. They do
suggest, however, certain guesses regarding future of climate change. Lovelock states:

But so far these guesses have been unable to match the observed
changes in climate closely enough for us to be confident about
IPCC forecasts decades into the future.10

Furthermore, current predictive models are not even able to model the past, for which we
know the trends based on empirical data. This is because of what is now referred to as
‘post-normal science.’ Post-normal science followed on the heels of what Kuhn called ‘nor-
mal science.’11 Under normal science, scientists would go to their labs, perform their expe-
riments, record their measurements, calculate their statistics, build their models, and then
proceed on a particular path based on a well-established paradigm. Post-normal science, on
the other hand, acknowledges that some groups want or need to know the answers well
before normal science has resolved the inherent uncertainties surrounding them.12 Such
groups have a stake in the outcome and want some way of dealing with the vast array of
uncertainties that are not all equal in the degree of confidence they carry. Compared to ap-
plied science and professional consultancy, post-normal science carries both higher deci-
sion stakes and higher uncertainty.

9 (IPCC, 2007), p. 3. This document provides the original and suggested changes to the IPCC Terms of Reference,
including changes to its original mission statement.
10 (Lovelock, 2009), p. 3. See, also, Figure 1, below.
11 (Kuhn, 1962).
12 See (Funtowicz, S.O. and J.R. Ravetz, 1993).

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Post-normal modelers inherently begin with certain assumptions about climate that they
build into their models. For instance, the computers do not decide if CO2 is a more impor-
tant to climate change than solar activity, dust, temperature, water vapor, etc. – the mod-
elers, by the assumptions they determine to be most important, decide these things. The
models return the result that CO2 is the most important driver of climate in the coming cen-
tury because programmers built that assumption into the model, not because the model
somehow sorts through different inputs and comes up with the key drivers on its own.
Models, in general, become the tools of self-fulfilling prophecy – they predict what the pro-
grammer believes to be true. That is simply human nature. Future predictions based on the
uncertainty of the future presents a much more difficult problem, especially when dealing
with the complexity of Earth’s atmosphere.

A similar situation obtained when The Limits to Growth was published in 1972.13 The book
used an existing computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the
Earth's finite natural resources and Mankind. Five variables were examined in the belief
that exponential growth accurately described their patterns of increase, and that the ability
of technology to increase the availability of resources grows only linearly.

The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that
would be achieved by altering growth trends among these five variables. The study at least
initially, was heralded as a breakthrough in scholarship and computer modeling. Later, the
study came under heavy scrutiny and criticism. Its conclusions were stunning. The book
prophesized that the world would ultimately run out of many of its key resources. These
limits would become the "ultimate" predicament for Mankind. The 30-year hence deadline
“predicted” never materialized but its possibilities shook the economists and ecologists of
the day. The Limits to Growth model had simply predicted what most ecologists – now gen-
erally called, environmentalists – believed would happen.

Just like the Limits to Growth, the findings of the IPCC seem unsubstantiated and contradic-
tory. It is difficult to make predictions with confidence in the absence of reliable and consis-
tent data, especially when these predictions must be made in the present to preserve or
prepare for the future. It is all the more difficult when our data do not mirror field observa-
tions or changes in the Earth’s atmosphere. Part of the problem with IPCC forecasts regard-
ing climate change is that the IPCC:

 Operates under the authority of consensus, not as unbiased scientists.

 Bases its forecasts, not on empirically derived data but upon ever more so-
phisticated theoretical models.
 Has failed to predict current climatic conditions based on its research dating
back to 1991.

13 (Meadows, Donella H., et. al., 1972)

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The IPCC operates and behaves like most panels. It is composed of individuals, nominated
by governments, or their agencies, each with specific agendas. Hardcore science takes a
back seat to the political and economic agendas and exigencies of the participating mem-
bers. Steve Schneider, in his book The Patient from Hell, recounted his experience with the
IPCC’s Working Group II Report of 2001.14 He described how scientific fact was manipu-
lated, digested, and recast until it bore little or no resemblance to its original self. In the
end, however, it did satisfy the national interests and agendas of the countries represented
at the meeting. This is not science. It is political science.

The quantification of everything from quantum particle mechanics through the social
sciences, and almost every branch of the physical sciences, along with the increase in our
computational capabilities, has ushered in a growing dependence upon the role of predic-
tive statistics, or computer modeling of almost everything. The consequence of this in-
creased capability is that fieldwork – data collection – is increasingly being replaced by
computer models or inference. It will be admitted that, in many respects, computer models
are easier and faster to create than raw data databases and simultaneously, oftentimes less
expensive. Maintaining and sending a large field party out into the world has grown increa-
singly expensive and, in some case, politically and physically dangerous. The problem with
this move toward computer modeling, over fieldwork, is that we are also removed from the
reality of the situation – hands on experiences.

Once insulated from reality and no longer dependent upon fieldwork, raw data collection
requirements, computer models can be blind us to what is happening ‘in the real world.’
Most computer models define trend lines, rather than exact data points, which can be
measured and verified. In computer simulations, we must deal with levels of confidence
and statistical significance, which are analogous to the use, or misuse of Heisenberg’s un-
certainty principle outside quantum physics. We place unrealistic faith in computer mod-
eled trend lines, assuming that the use of other sophisticated ‘statistical techniques,’ some-
how creates useable data. Trend lines are approximations of what we believe to be happen-
ing in the real world. The question, then is, why do not the trend lines dealing with climate
change reflect what is observable. Why, after so many Working Group reports and reports
of findings, do we find almost no useful, accurate predictive models of what is happening in
our atmosphere? See Figure 1.

MODELS OF THE PAST SHOULD COINCIDE PERFECTLY WITH OBSERVATION OR

FIELD DATA FROM THE PAST. HOWEVER, MODEL TREND LINES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE AROUND THE DATA-DRIVEN ‘OBSERVED LINES.’

14 As referenced by (Lovelock, 2009), p. 8.

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FIGURE 1 – CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION15

While Earth has come under much more intense human intervention over the last century
or so, two interrelated, phenomena have taken center stage in the discussions centering on
climate change. These are changes in the Earth’s temperature regime and the increase in
greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), or just ‘carbon.’

We ‘believe’ we know what is happening but . . . . It has been assumed and predictive mod-
els suggest that the build-up of carbon dioxide (CO2) has resulted in the rise in Earth’s av-
erage temperature. However, observational data simply do not support this contention and
relationship over long periods. See Figure 1 and 2.

CLIMATE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE, AND CO2

Paleontological evidence suggests that throughout the Earth’s history, average tempera-
tures, as well as CO2 levels have often been higher than at present. See Figures 3 and 5, be-
low. Five hundred million years ago, CO2 was as much as 20 times more prevalent than to-
day, decreasing to 4-5 times during the Jurassic and then slowly declining with a particular-
ly swift reduction occurring 49 million years ago.16 It has been suggested, and is now an

15 (Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A., 2003) and (Meehl, G., et. al., 2004).
16 See (Courses) and (Berner, Robert A. and Zavareth Kothavala, 2001).

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accepted ‘fact’ that human activity such as the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation
have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to increase by about 35%
since the beginning of the Age of Industrialization.17

There are a few flaws in the industrialization argument:

 It is not supported by historical fact. During the so-called Holocene Maxi-

mum, temperatures were among the highest in geologic history. Compared to
earlier and subsequent geologic periods, current levels of CO2 are substan-
tially lower.18
 CO2 in our atmosphere has been increasing steadily for the last 18,000 years,
well before humans had invented smokestacks or internal combustion en-
gines.19
 Total human contributions to greenhouse gases account for only about 0.28%
of the "greenhouse effect.”20 See Figure 2.
 Approximately 99.72% of the "greenhouse effect" is due to natural causes --
mostly water vapor and traces of other gases, which man has no control over.
Eliminating human activity altogether would have little impact on climate
change.

THE IDEA THAT MAN-MADE POLLUTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

CANNOT BE SUPPORTED BY HISTORICAL FACT, OR PROVEN EMPIRICALLY. THE
HOTTEST PERIOD IN EARTH’S HISTORY -- THE HOLOCENE -- OCCURRED APPROX-
IMATELY 7500 TO 4000 YEARS BCE (BEFORE THE CURRENT ERA), LONG BEFORE
HUMANS INVENTED INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION.

17 (NOAA, 2005)
18 See (Bradley, 1990) for discussion of Holocene Maximum. The Holocene was followed by several thousands of
years of global cooling.
19 See (Dansgaard, W., et. al., 1969) and (Schönwiese, 1995).
20 See (Pidwirny, 2009), Chapter 7. See also comment made by Henrik Svensmark, director of the Centre for Sun-
Climate Research, Danish National Space Center,
http://www.asinglevoice.us/Environment/GlobalWarming/GlobalWarmingResources/MarkLandsbaum.htm.

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FIGURE 2 – SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Most scientists continue to subscribe to the belief that as CO2 levels increase, so must aver-
age temperatures, i.e., global warming. It has been suggested that the Earth has not expe-
rienced current levels of atmospheric CO2 in the last 2 million years.21 However, during ear-
lier epochs, the Earth’s temperatures have been significantly higher than at present. In fact,
until recent geologic time, the Earth’s average temperature had been falling, relative to ear-
lier periods. See Figure 3.

FIGURE 3 -- CO2 VERSUS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST 600 MILLION YEARS22

Over the last 2.5 million years, our climate has experienced long ice ages regularly punc-
tuated by brief warm periods called interglacials. These interglacial periods come along

21 (Paul N. Pearson & Martin R. Palmer, 2000) and (Koerth-Baker, 2009).

22 Temperatures after (Scotese, 2002); CO2 concentrations after (Berner, Robert A. and Zavareth Kothavala,
2001).

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approximately every 100,000 years, the so-called Milankovitch cycle.23 Figure 4 depicts this
cycle.

FIGURE 4 – CYCLES OF WARMER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 2.5 MILLION YEARS24

In the 1990’s the classic Vostok ice core studies seemed to indicate that changes in temper-
ature and carbon were essentially simultaneous. See Figure 5. The relationship seemed in-
escapable. The consensus was that carbon influenced temperature, instead of the reverse, a
position that could have been as easily argued and defended, although it was less intuitive
at the time. This became the environmentalists and climate change advocate’s mantra, and
once adopted, there was no turning back no matter what later empirical data might other-
wise suggest.

By 2003, however, new data became available and it was clear that carbon lagged behind
temperature. See Figure 6. For many, the relationship was reversed and counter-intuitive.
For this reason, those on the CO2 Global Warming bandwagon, were unwilling to either ac-
cept or endorse the new findings. Their preconception simply would not permit them to
accept the most recent empirical findings. They simply did not conform to their current pa-
radigm regarding climate change and Global Warming, and the relationship between at-
mospheric CO2 and temperature changes.

Temperatures appear to control atmospheric and aqueous carbon concentrations. Al-

though there remains the possibility that carbon influences temperature, the ice cores do
not seem to support this, however. After temperatures rise, on average it takes 800 years
before carbon begins to move. This fact is well accepted by climatologists. Strangely, the
fact that temperature leads the temperature-CO2 process does not seem to be at all contro-
versial. Curious.

23 See (Milankovitch, 1920), (Milankovitch, 1930), and (Milankovitch, 1998 [1941]).

24 (Buchdahl., 2006).

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 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURES IS EITHER
LITTLE KNOWN OR COMPLETELY IGNORED BY THOSE OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY.
OR, POSSIBLY MORE ACCURATELY, THESE DATA DO NOT FIT THE ENVIRONMEN-
TALISTS CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE MINDSET, OR THE PREVAILING POLITICALLY
CORRECT PARADIGM AND THEY ARE, THEREFORE, SIMPLY IGNORED!!

Chemists readily acknowledge that cold water is able to contain larger amounts of dis-
solved CO2. When water is warmed, it will release more and more of this dissolved gas. It is
this relationship that the environmentalist are willing to conveniently ignore. They simply
refuse to accept the possibility that our current climate change is part of a much larger, re-
curring natural process. If they did, they would not have any legitimacy. They would be un-
able to continue their tilting at windmills. Without CO2 and the other greenhouse gasses to
blame, i. e., industrialization, most environmental groups would have no raison d'être.

FIGURE 5 -- INITIAL VOSTOK ICE CORE FINDINGS25

This situation begs the question, is all the hoopla over climate change or Global Warming
more political and economic in nature than scientific? One need only read the comments of
some of some prominent public and academic figures involved in the climate change debate
to decide. Among the long list of commenters are:

25 Graph based on (Petit J.R., et. al., 1999). Modified from original Wiki posting, dust component has been de-
leted.

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Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, a leading climate and atmospheric science expert from MIT:

Researchers pound the global-warming drum because they know

there is politics and, therefore, money behind it. . . I've been criti-
cal of global warming and am persona non grata.26

Tim Wirth , U.S. Senator from Colorado, after a short stint as United Nations Under-
Secretary for Global Affairs, now President, U.N. Foundation:

Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing

the right thing -- in terms of economic policy and environmental
policy.27

Christine Stewart, former Minister of the Environment, Canada:

No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral envi-

ronmental benefits.... Climate change [provides] the greatest
chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.28

26From (Pratt), p. 2. This quotation has been variously attributed to Dr. William Gray
(Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, as well.
27 (The Editors, 2010)
28 Christine Stewart, speaking before editors of the Calgary Herald, 1998. Quoted by Terence Corcoran, “Global

Warming: The Real Agenda,” Financial Post, 26 December 1998, from the Calgary Herald, December, 14,
1998. Cited by Fred Singer, page 4.

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FIGURE 6 – VOSTOK ICE CORES OVER 420,000± YEARS29

Note: It is impossible to see a lag of centuries on a graph that covers half a million years. Nova re-graphed the data from her original sources and scaled
the graphs so that the lag is visible to the naked eye.30 Figure 6 is her result. This graph demonstrates that rising temperatures cause carbon levels to rise.
Carbon may still influence temperatures, but such a relationship cannot be drawn from the ice core data. If both factors caused each other to rise signifi-
cantly, the effect would be exponential; and we would have seen runaway greenhouse effects throughout history. This simply has not happened. We can
only assume that some other factor is equally or more important than carbon dioxide.

29 (Nova, 2008-2010).
30 Nova’s data drawn from (CDIAC, Historical Isotopic Temperature Record from the Vostok Ice Core, 2000) for temperatures and (CDIAC, 2003) for CO2 concentrations.
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 IS THE DEBATE REALLY OVER?
The debate over climate change or global warming has been an academic and political roll-
er coaster, with all its twists and turns, up and downs, and loop-the-loops. The primary
tools of the environmentalists have been exaggeration and alarmism. These tactics, time
and again, have become the Achilles heel of undisciplined environmentalists, beginning
with the ‘ecological movement’ in the late ‘60s, spearheaded by Paul R. Ehrlich, an ento-
mologist by training, but better known for his work on population.31 From then on, every
new ecological problem became the cause de celeb for life-as-we-know-it crisises. Soon, af-
ter the population explosion came the demise of civilization due to resource depletion, fol-
lowed by acid rain, ozone depletion . . . ad infinitum.32 Each new problem added another
nail in Mankind’s coffin. Environmentalists castigated those who did not march to their
drumbeat. If their data did not silence their detractors, they simply shouted them down.

In the late 1980s along came global warming. As the National Review editors were to com-
ment, the environmentalist movement:

had hit the jackpot — a crisis sufficiently long-range that it

could not be falsified and broad enough to justify massive politi-
cal controls on resource use at a global level.33

Soon, the environmentalists ‘voice of ‘reason’ was heard by the United Nations, and the U.
N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded to fight the mother of
all environmental problems. It was the Final Crusade. For more than a decade the rhetoric
of doom and gloom permitted the global warming alarmists to dominate every media ve-
nue. Their final success was the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the IPCC in
2007. They had ‘proven’ that global warming was caused by human activity and they had a
spokesman who toed the party line. They had found the smoking gun. They were armed
and dangerous.

31 (Ehrlich, 1968).
32 (Meadows, Donella H., et. al., 1972).
33 (The Editors, 2010).

Page | 16
 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LAUREATES AL GORE (LEFT)
AND R. K. PACHAURI, CHAIRMAN OF THE INTER-
GOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

However, there was, as they say, a fly in the ointment. Ironically, shortly after the publica-
tion of the IPCC’s landmark reports in 2007, and after Gore and the IPCC received their No-
bel Peace Medals, the IPCC seems to have begun backpedalling. They discovered that their
assertions were oftentimes based on the faulty or misrepresentation of data by biased re-
searchers, especially those of many environmental advocacy groups. The IPCC Working
Group II assessment stated:

Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other

part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate
continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035
and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at
the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present
500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).34

When the World Wildlife Fund’s assertion was later examined, it proved to be based on un-
substantiated fact and faulty analysis, yet the IPCC Work Group had accepted it as gospel.

34 (IPCC, 2007), p. 493.

Page | 17
The ice caps were going to melt away. However, by its own admission, the Work Group
stated:

Projections of change agree that the retreat of glaciers will

continue across Arctic glaciers, with a consequent impact on
global sea level (Meehl et al., 2007). Recent changes in the
Greenland ice sheet have, however, been complex. The colder
interior has thickened, most probably as a result of recently high
precipitation rates, while the coastal zone has been thinning.
Thus some studies suggest that overall the ice sheet is growing
in thickness (Krabill et al., 2000; Johannessen et al., 2005).35

It cannot be said that the ice caps are shrinking, at least not in terms of the volume of ice. In
the Arctic, the territorial extent of the ice cap waxes and wanes over time, thinning and re-
treating, only to extend itself later. There is evidence that the caps are, in fact, in a phase
where the ice sheets are thickening and, thereby increasing their total ice/water volume,
and piling up in places.36

In the Antarctic, the Work Group states:

The ice sheet on the Antarctic Peninsula is probably alone in

showing a clear response to contemporary climate change (see
Section15.6.3), while the larger West Antarctic and East Antarc-
tic ice sheets are showing changes whose attribution to climate
change are not clear, but cannot be ruled out. In West Antarcti-
ca, there is a suggestion that the dramatic recent thinning of the
ice sheet throughout the Amundsen Sea sector is the result of re-
cent ocean change (Payne et al., 2004; Shepherd et al., 2004), but
as yet there are too few oceanographic measurements to confirm
this interpretation.37

When it comes to the Antarctic ice sheet, even the IPCC is equivocal. Changes are not clear.

The environmentalists would have us believe that the Brazilian rainforest will soon cease
to exist but ironically, the reason the IPCC’s Work Group gives for the reduction in the
Amazonian rainforest is not climate change. Instead, it attributes the loss of rainforest to
clearing and changes in land use, two very different processes, having nothing to do with
climate change.38

35 (Anisimov, O.A., et. al., 2007), Chapter 15, p. 663

36 (Black, 2005).
37 (Anisimov, O.A., et. al., 2007), Chapter 15, p. 663.
38 (Magrin, 2007), p. 590, passim.

Page | 18
Then, the IPCC published its Summary for Policymakers, in which it stated:

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures

since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed in-
crease in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [under-
lined emphasis, added].39

The irony of this statement lies in the fact that the IPCC, formed in 1988, and after nearly
20 years of ground-breaking research and modeling are only able to say that anthropogenic
greenhouse cases are very likely the cause of global warming. It is likely that there has been
significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years . . . . 40 It is more likely than not
that anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of heat waves.41 It is very unlikely that
climate changes . . . .42 The IPCC assigns a probability of 90% to the term “very likely”. This
is a curious use of statistical probability since warming over the last 50 years is either due
to anthropogenic emissions, or it isn’t. Probabilities do not apply to past events. However,
the IPCC’s graphs show a variety of possible scenarios, even going back in time. Shouldn’t
the past be one single trend line? Shouldn’t the IPCC be sure about their statements? Does
this mean likely represents something much less certain, say, a 50 to 70 percent confidence
level? What do these terms really mean statistically? Should not the IPCC be able to state
with almost 100 percent certainty that something is or is not caused by something after
twenty years and millions upon millions of dollars spent on research?

ISN’T THE IPCC REALLY SAYING “WE COULD BE WRONG,” WHEN THEY UTILIZE IM-
PRECISE TERMINOLOGY WHEN THEY USE TERMS SUCH AS: LIKE, VERY LIKELY,
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT?

The IPCC’s reliance on research groups ‘with an agenda’ would seem to beg for bias in their
findings. After all, these groups’ agendas are geared to proving their argument is valid.
They simply cannot be objective. And the IPCC accepts their claims as representative of
good empirical science? Shame. Shame.

Also, the public is given the image that the IPCC is a large United Nations run think tank,
when, in fact, their reports rely upon the unpaid work of thousands of researchers, over-
seen by a permanent staff of 10 or so. Simply put, the permanent staff is understandably
overwhelmed by the nature and complexity of the global issues and research required. Di-
gesting and synthesizing the enormous quantity of data is a monumental task and, as a re-
sult, they seem to feel that it is better to overstate the results than understate them, espe-
cially in light of the prophesized consequences.

39 (IPCC, 2007), p. 10.

40 Ibid.
41 Ibid.
42 Ibid., p. 11.

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 THE IPCC’S POSITION: PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND, IF WE ARE WRONG, IT
WILL BE A PLEASANT SURPRISE.

If we are to believe the environmentalists’ inflated and skewed interpretation of climate

change data, and their consequences, the Earth as we know it would cease to exist. Earth
would soon become little more than a burnt out cinder. Recently, however, the IPCC has
been the recipient of repeated academic and media beatings. As a consequence of the
IPCC’s reliance on unsubstantiated reports of environmental advocacy groups, like the
WWF, it has had to begin the process of realistic self-evaluation. In fact, there are rumblings
within the ranks of the IPCC about non-specific reforms and changes in the process that
will be used to shape its next massive climate report, which is due out in three or four
years. The consensus approach has come under fire. What is needed is more ‘down in the
trenches’ honest to goodness data collection and analysis – normal science.

For now, the debate rages, with no clear-cut winner. This is not to say, however, that we are
not in the midst of a major climate change but that change is not necessarily the conse-
quence of human activity. The Earth, or Gaia, has struggled through repeated periods of
cooling the warming. We are, in all likelihood, at the beginning of the next warming cycle.
Likewise, it is not likely that Mankind, no matter what we do, will be able to stop or reverse
the cycle. It is probably irreversible. The natural cycle will continue until it is complete and,
then, it will reverse itself, just has it has hundreds, maybe thousands of times throughout
geologic history.

The question should not be ‘how can we stop climate change?’ Instead, it should be, ‘How
can we adapt to it?’ If we do not adapt, we will become part of Raup’s list of the 99.9 per-
cent of life forms that once called Earth home.43

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

If anyone has gotten the impression from the preceding that the intent of this paper is to
debunk the idea of climate change, you would be wrong. Despite the fact that the climate
data, much like statistics in general, can be made to say almost anything the researcher
chooses, the Earth’s climate is in the process of profound change. But, unlike the rabid en-
vironmentalists, my contention is that we cannot stop it. Even if we stopped spewing anth-
ropogenic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere today, it would simply not change the
course of the change that is currently upon us. Life-altering changes have been set in mo-
tion but not necessarily by Mankind. In all likelihood, we have contributed to the rate of
change but that change was preordained, long, long ago – by a natural, recurring pattern of
climate change. One can look at these changes as history repeating itself, just as it has done

43 (Raup, 1991).

Page | 20
in the past, or one can be more anthropomorphic and ascribe the changes to Gaia – Earth is
finally fighting back. It is doubtful that Mankind’s addiction to technological fixes will be
successful in turning back the environmental clock.

It really does not matter which interpretation one subscribes to. Unless something monu-
mental should stop or reverse the course of climate change, the Earth is going to get war-
mer,

 The ice caps and glaciers will shrink or disappear.

 Sea levels will increase, and with it the threat of coastal flooding.
 Weather and climatic patterns will be altered.
 Rainfall will increase in some areas, causing flooding and decrease signifi-
cantly in others, causing drought.
 Water availability will change dramatically.
 Biodiversity will change – some species will disappear and others will proli-
ferate.

The remainder of this paper will be devoted to the environmental consequences of global
warming, especially as it applies to the South Asian subcontinent, with special emphasis on
Bangladesh. I have elected to use Bangladesh as my regional focus for the reason that, al-
most nowhere else on the face of the Earth are there so many people, occupying such a
small land area, who are as poverty stricken, and who are more susceptible to the most
immediate consequences of global warming.

BANGLADESH
Bangladesh ranks 146th among the 182 countries included in the 2009 Human Develop-
ment Report.44 It is perceived as one of the poorest, most impoverished countries in the
world, and yet, it possesses the highest percentage of arable land to total area of any coun-
try in South Asia. See Table 1, below. Agriculture remains the primary source of employ-
ment for more than 60 percent of the population. Part of the country’s impoverishment can
be explained as a function its environmental problems and agricultural adaptations. Since
its creation in 1971, Bangladesh has faced almost every conceivable problem. Among the
more important of these, in addition to unrelenting poverty and socio-economic strife, is
environmental vulnerability. Much of this vulnerability is the result and combination of its:

Geographic location, and

Physiography.

44 (United Nations Human Development Programme (UNDP), 2009), Table H: Human Development Index 2007
and its Components, p. 173.

Page | 21
Table 1 - Selected Human Development Index Components

HDI Rank Population Human Life Per Capita

(Rank by Population Density Development Life Literacy Per Capita Expectency GDP GDP rank minus
Population) Country (millions) Per km2 Indix Expectancy Rate GDP in PPP Index Index HDI rank

1 (116) Norway 4.863 12.625 0.971 80.5 100 53,433 0.925 1 4

13 (3) United States 308.871 32.007 0.956 79.1 100 45,593 0.968 1 -4
71 (9) Russian Fed. 141.927 8.301 0.817 66.2 99.5 14,690 0.686 0.833 -16
92 (1) China 1,336.36 139.25 0.772 72.9 93.3 5,383 0.799 0.665 10
134 (2) India 1,178.27 358.434 0.612 63.4 66.0 2,753 0.639 0.553 -6
141 (6) Pakistan 168.980 210.185 0.572 66.2 54.2 2,496 0.687 0.537 -9
144 (40) Nepal 29.331 199.285 0.553 66.3 56.5 1,049 0.668 0.392 21
146 (7) Bangladesh 162.221 1,126.55 0.543 65.7 53.5 1,241 0.678 0.42 9
182 (64) Niger 15.290 12.068 0.340 50.8 28.7 627 0.431 0.307 -6

World 6,808.513 45.713 0.753 67.5 83.9 9,972 0.708 0.768

Figures in parentheses represent the ranking of the country based on population size.

Source: (United Nations Human Development Programme (UNDP), 2009), Table H, Human development index 2007 and its components, pp. 171-174; and
(Wikipedia, List of countries by population, 2010).

Page | 22
 GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION

Bangladesh is located at the vertex of the landmasses of India, to the west and east, and
Myanmar (Burma) to the southeast, and the Himalayas to the north. These landmasses ef-
fectively funnel and trap the monsoons and storms originating in the Indian Ocean or the
Bay of Bengal. See Map 1.

PHYSIOGRAPHY

Bangladesh’s physiography and morphology contribute to its vulnerability to natural ha-

zards. It is, essentially, one gigantic, low-lying river delta with almost no relief. Roughly,
80 percent of the landmass is composed of a fertile alluvial lowland called the Bangladesh

MAP 1 – RELIEF MAP OF BANGLADESH45

Plain. This plain is part of the larger Plain of Bengal, which is sometimes called the Lower
Gangetic Plain. Consequently, it has virtually no defense against riverine flooding or tidal
surges from the Bay of Bengal. Virtually all of Bangladesh falls below 153 meters above sea

45 By permission, Maps.com

Page | 23
level, and much of its southern half is only a few meters above sea level. A full 70 percent of
the land area of Bangladesh is just 1 meter above sea level!46

The only exceptions to Bangladesh's low elevations are the Chittagong Hills in the south-
east, the Low Hills of Sylhet in the northeast, and highlands in the north and northwest. The
Chittagong Hills constitute the only significant hill system in the country and, in effect, are
the western fringe of the north-south mountain ranges of Myanmar and eastern India.

Part of Bangladesh’s vulnerability, especially as regards flooding, stems from the fact that
the country is a lacework of rivers and streams. Map 2 serves to demonstrate the complexi-
ty and density of its riverine systems. The lack of local relief, coupled with the density of
rivers makes flooding almost a certainty, especially when the rivers are in spate during the
monsoons.

NATURAL DISASTERS

There is, probably, no country that experiences the range, the number, or frequency of nat-
ural disasters than Bangladesh. Disaster planning and preparedness requires governments
to set aside significant amounts of scarce capital and resources. Limited capital and re-
sources must be diverted from more positive development projects in anticipation of dis-
aster management, relief, recovery, and preparedness requirements. Consequently, natural
hazards and the resulting environmental degradation represents a serious threat to the
economic development of an already beleaguered nation. Natural disasters cannot be pre-
vented, but their damage can be mitigated with adequate planning and adaptation. The im-
pacts of natural disasters vary by type and magnitude, and the ability of government(s) to
respond in a timely manner with the type and quantity of resources to mitigate their con-
sequences.

Bangladesh has been impoverished by a variety of problems coalescing within a very short
span of time and in a very limited area. If one looks at the frequency of natural disasters in
Bangladesh, it seems that these events are increasing in their severity and frequency. Be-
tween 1904 and 1960, there were only 18 ‘reportable’ disaster events. Thereafter, the inci-
dence rate seems to climb, almost exponentially.47 See Figure 7.

The increased incidence of natural disasters is not, however, limited to Bangladesh. It ap-
pears that, over the last 100 years, the total number of disaster events has been increasing
on a worldwide basis. Between 1976 and 1985, approximately 0.6 billion people were af-
fected by natural disasters. Between 1986 and 1995, that number increased to 1.6 billion,

46 (Magar, 2010).
47 According to EM-DAT, a reportable event must meet one or more of the following criteria: Ten (10) or more
people reported killed; One Hundred (100) or more people reported affected; A declaration of a state of
emergency; and a call for international assistance. (See http://www.emdat.be/criteria-and-definition).

Page | 24
MAP 2 – RIVER SYSTEMS OF BANGLADESH

SOURCE: AFTER THE GOVERNMENT OF BANGLADESH

and between 1996 and 2005, the number jumped to 2.3 billion. The majority of those af-
fected were in developing countries, like Bangladesh. Between 1991 and 2000, a staggering

Page | 25
211 million people were killed or affected by these disasters; and, of these, 98 percent were
from countries with low or medium Human Development Indices.48 See Figure 8.

FIGURE 7 – REPORTABLE DISASTER EVENTS, BANGLADESH 1904-200749

120

100 91 94
# of Reportable Events

80

60 54

40 33
18 21
20

0
1904-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-07

Source: (EM-DAT, 2009)

CAUSES OF NATURAL DISASTERS

It is estimated that more than half of the world’s population – 3.4± billion people – live in
areas where at least one environmental hazard could affect them. These areas, the World
Bank terms ‘Hotspots.’ Among the most pernicious of these environmental hazards are:

Flooding
Droughts
Cyclones (and other wind related storms)
Earthquakes50
Climate change.

48 (EM-DAT, 2009).
49 A reportable event involves one or more of the following: a) 10+ people killed, b) 100+ people affected, c) a
call for international assistance, and/or d) a declaration of emergency. (EM-DAT, 2009).
50 (Dilley, Maxx, et. al., 2005).

Page | 26
FIGURE 8 – NUMBER OF WORLDWIDE NATURAL DISASTERS REPORTED BY YEAR, 1900-2008

Page | 27
According to the World Bank’s system of evaluation, Bangladesh falls within the ‘High’ vul-
nerability category. See Map 3. While Bangladesh is categorized as having a high vulnera-
bility to natural hazards, in reality, it should be in a category all its own – Extremely Vulner-
able. Bangladesh is vulnerable to the environmental hazards listed above but, in addition, it
is also vulnerable to storm surges, tornadoes, hail and lightning, erosion, and land- and
mudslides; all of which occur on a regular basis. Probably, no other nation experiences
more weather-related and geologic hazards than Bangladesh.

Each natural disaster takes its toll in terms of human lives lost, the destruction of peoples’
possessions, their homes, the resources essential to their livelihoods, or the infrastructure
that supports them in terms of economics and communication.

MAP 3 – HOTSPOT COUNTRIES – WITH BANGLADESH CIRCLED51

Note: ‘Hotspot Countries’ have significant levels of vulnerability to two or more natural hazards. Vulnerability
is expressed as "High" (when 50% or more of the country’s GDP is at risk), or "Medium" (30% to 50% GDP at
risk). Red = High, Gold – Medium natural hazard vulnerability.

RAINFALL AND DROUGHT

Rainfall in the adjacent mountains and hills systems contribute to Bangladesh’s disaster-
prone situation. The anticipated effects of climate change will also have a significant impact
on the future disaster scenarios for the country. If, as has been suggested, climate change

51 (World Bank, n.d.).

Page | 28
results in increased rainfall, or should it modify the timing of the rains, it will also contri-
bute to or at least alter the rain induced flooding pattern.

Flooding is such a common component of the Bangladeshis’ lives that they have developed
terminology to describe the character of the floods. These terms are Bonna and Borsha.
When the floodwaters damage resources, disrupts communication, and livelihoods, it is
called Bonna. Normal, non-destructive flooding is called Borsha. There is seldom the oppor-
tunity to use the term Borsha in Bangladesh.

Although the country normally has adequate rainfall, droughts follow on the heels of floods
and frequently have an impact on the nation’s agricultural economy, resulting in hunger,
instability, and food insecurity. Droughts are most common in Bangladesh’s northwest.

CYCLONES
Cyclones and storm surges occur frequently and cause significant destruction in the coastal
areas of Bangladesh. Tornadoes also hit frequently. Tropical cyclones uproot trees, tele-
phone, telegraph, and electric poles, destroy bridges, houses, kill people and domestic ani-
mals, all resulting in serious or adverse consequences for the economy and the environ-
ment.

The question, then, is how do we explain the almost exponential increase in the incidence
of natural disasters, as indicated in Figure 8, especially as they have an impact on humani-
ty? The answer to this seemingly simple question is complex. Some of the components of
the answer include climate change, population increases, urbanization, changes in land use,
and coastal encroachment. Of these, one of the most easily observed cause is recent climate
change and its consequences.

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change, in this case, planet-wide increases in ambient temperatures, seems to have
contributed to both the frequency and intensity of many forms of atmospheric disaster
scenarios. The cause or assumed causes of this climate change are essentially immaterial.
What is important, however, is that global warming has contributed, in a number of ways,
to Bangladesh’s current problems, and its future environmental problems.

ICE CAPS, GLACIERS, AND SEA LEVELS

In most scenarios, environmentalists have focused on the most sensational and most visi-
ble signs of global warming – the apparent retreat of the ice caps and glaciers. If we assume
the environmentalists are correct, and the ice caps and glaciers are, in fact, shrinking, it is
only logical to believe that the ice melt will result in an increase in sea level. Estimates of
the amount of sea level rise vary wildly, depending upon the source. The ranges begin with

Page | 29
 WHEN THE ICE IS GONE, WHERE DO THE POLAR BEARS GO?

20-30 centimeters (0.2 to 0.3 meters) to as much as 3.6 meters.52 The most common figure
reported is somewhere around a 1.0 to 1.3 meters rise, depending upon a combination of
timeframe and temperatures. If we accept the much more conservative median figure of
1.15 meters, what impact would this have on our focus area – Bangladesh?

First, some facts about Bangladesh:

 82 percent of Bangladesh’s population depends on agriculture for its liveli-

hood,53
 Agriculture accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s GDP,54
 70 percent of Bangladesh is less than 1-meter above sea level at present.55
 67 percent of the country's non-urban land is arable.56

A 1-meter rise in sea level will result in the inundation of as much as 70 percent of the
country and with it, virtually all that country’s arable/agricultural land!57 In essence, there
are no natural barriers to floodwaters making its way to almost every square centimeter of
land below 1-meter, since the country is laced with such an intricate system of rivers and
streams and these would provide the conduits for the distribution of the floodwaters. In a
country that is already hard pressed to feed itself, climate change, in the form of higher
temperatures, resulting in seal level increases, can only mean the destruction of its agricul-
tural base, causing massive hunger and, ultimately, wholesale starvation and death.

52 Cited in (Raper, 2010). Exact source of reference – American Geological Institute – was unverifiable, however.
Other sources predicted rises of up to 6 meters. A more conservative figure was used here for illustrative pur-
poses.
53 (Worden, 1989 [Updated]) – Structure of Agricultural Production.
54 Ibid.
55 (Magar, 2010).
56 (Worden, 1989 [Updated]).
57 (Ali, 1989).

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Such, potentially permanent flooding, would almost surely turn the bulk of Bangladesh’s
population into homeless, jobless, landless refugees. The question, then, is where would all
these people go? With 70 percent of the nation under sea water, there would be virtually no
place to go. The likelihood of the surrounding countries of India, Myanmar (Burma), or
Bhutan providing refuge for 160+ million people – the seventh largest country in terms of
population – is an impossibility. Each of these countries already is virtually incapable of
taking care of its own population.

Already, annual floods, storm surges, and cyclones take, on average, tens of thousands of
lives, and these are individual short-term events. If 70 percent of the nation were perma-
nently flooded, the bulk of Bangladesh’s population would perish if they could not escape
the floodwaters. If they were able to escape to ‘high ground,’ there would be no logistical
way to house and feed them, let alone provide for potable water and those that did not die
from drowning would die of famine and disease. Even if the rise of the sea were slow, not
like storm surges or flash floods, there still would be no refuge for Bangladesh’s people!

Even if all the ice caps and glaciers were to melt away completely, the world would not be-
come a Waterworld, as in the movie, but according to a 2007 IPCC report, the area inun-
dated by 1, 5, and 10-meter rises in sea level and the population affected would be:58

Area Flooded by Sea Level Increase of Population Affected in millions by

1-meter 5-meters 10-meters 1-meter 5-meters 10-meters
2 2
World 2,223 km 3,667 km 5,223 km2 145 268 397
Asia only 875 km2 1,548 km2 2,342 km2 108 200 294

One look at the IPCC figures and one has to ask the question, now can that be? Just within
the context of Bangladesh alone, with its land area of 130,168 km2, if 70 percent of the
country is only 1-meter above sea level that would mean 91,118 km2 could be at risk. 59
The IPCC reports only 875 km2 would be at risk for the whole of Asia. There is just no way
the IPCC’s figures can be correct. They are grossly underestimated. The same holds true for
the numbers of people affected. These, too, are grossly underestimated, at least in the short
term.

CHANGES IN RAINFALL AND FLOODING

With increased temperatures, one can expect changes in the hydrological cycle – an in-
crease in evaporation and precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) rates and these will cause
changes in local and regional weather and precipitation patterns. It is generally believed

58 (Nicholls, R.J., et. al., 2007), Table 6.12, p. 346.

59 (Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 2010).

Page | 31
that the places that are wet are going to get wetter, and the places that are dry are going to
get drier. 60

These phenomena are already being witnessed in places like Nepal. Advocates of Global
warming warned that increased temperatures would be keenly felt in Nepal. They sug-
gested that, in addition to the retreat of the country’s glaciers, there could be increases in
glacial lake outbursts, rainfall, longer droughts, landslides, and floods. The advocates seem
to have been right.

Glacial lake outbursts destroy irrigation and water supply systems, roads, bridges, settle-
ments, and agriculturally productive lands. Likewise, as rainfall increases, the possibility of
life-threatening flooding increases. Current indications are that the incidence and severity
of flooding, has been increasing, throughout Nepal, northern India, and Bangladesh, due in
large measure to increased precipitation in the headwaters of Nepal’s, India’s and Bangla-
desh’s rivers – much of which falls in Tibet and Nepal. While both rainfall and snowfalls
have increased in Nepal, and damaging floods occur, the more devastating effects of flood-
ing are felt in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal) and Bangladesh.

The people of Nepal are largely rural and poor, and dependent upon agriculture for their
subsistence. Rainfall is essential to mountain agriculture. 61 Rainfall patterns have begun to
change in many areas of Nepal. The once reliable monsoons are becoming increasingly un-
reliable. For the poorest segments of Nepali society, the deepest felt losses are losses to
their crops and housing. Increased temperatures and rainfall has increased the incidence of
landslides, erosion, and flash and sheet flooding, all of which destroy crops and habitations.

While too much water is a problem for those living in the mountains and hill regions of
Nepal, the lack of water is equally serious for the cultivators and residents of the Terai re-
gion of Nepal – the southernmost third of the country. See Map 4. Agriculture in the Terai is
dependent upon river waters and monsoon precipitation.

The timing of snowfall, glacial melt and runoff are crucial to agriculturalists throughout all
of Nepal but especially so in the Terai, where the bulk of Nepal’s population lives. In agri-
culture, timing is everything. There is a time to plant, a time to irrigate, and a time to harv-
est. For millennia, these activities varied very little from year to year. Now, there is climatic
variability. With increased temperatures, the annual runoff begins earlier and has a shorter
duration; sometimes arriving before it is required at planting time, and before soil temper-
atures are optimal for planting and germination. Peak runoff, which usually occurs in Sep-
tember is now coming earlier, as early as July and, at the same time, ending earlier, leaving
the dry fall season without available irrigation water. Thus, the threat of drought during the
growing season increases.

60 (NOAA and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), 2007).

61 Mountains and hills make up nearly 83 percent of Nepal’s land area.

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MAP 4 - THE PHYSIOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS OF NEPAL

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nepal_topo_en.jpg

Rising temperatures also have an effect on the onset of the monsoons. Warming has al-
ready caused a shift in the monsoons’ arrival and has changed their intensity and amounts.
They are now more intense and heavier. Increased temperatures seemingly delay the onset
of the monsoons. The Monsoons typically begin in June and continue into September. The
effect of early winter runoff and the delay of the monsoons’ arrival is to increase the
chances of drought during the crucial time in most crops’ development – when the new
plants are developing their root systems. The amount of soil moisture is critical at this
stage of development. Likewise, the delayed arrival of the monsoons seems to intensify the
post monsoon dry season. It begins later and extends further into the following spring.

Decreased precipitation from November to April has an impact on the winter and spring
crops. These shifts in water availability, ultimately, impacts on crop yield. At present, 80
percent of all the water in Nepal is used for agricultural purposes. Nearly 38 percent of
agricultural lands is irrigated, mostly in the Terai, and only 17 percent is irrigated year-
round.62

Increased temperatures will increase evapotranspiration rates and simultaneously de-

crease winter precipitation, which could lead inexorably to more droughts in Nepal. In ad-
dition, many or Nepal’s rivers could become highly variable with regard to flow patterns
due to changing melt and run off patterns. Flow variability, in turn, will have an impact on

62 (Regmi, Bimal R. and A. Adhikari, 2007), p. 16 and (World Bank, 2008).

Page | 33
irrigation water availability and the cultivators who depend on them. In all likelihood, per
capita and per unit area crop yields would easily decline, among a people who are already
hard pressed to feed themselves.

As rainfall, runoff, and spring melt-water variability increases, the ability of the Nepalese
cultivator to produce more will decline, which will have the effect of increasing the demand
for already scare water resources and threaten or exacerbate Nepalese food security issues.

WASTED WATER AND FLOODS

The situation regarding water is ironical. On the one hand, Nepal has more water than it
can deal with and, on the other, that water is simply not available to adequately serve Nep-
al’s needs. The vast majority of Nepal’s water resources simply flow through and out with
dire consequences for those living farther downstream. Nearly every stream and river that
runs through Nepal debouches out onto the north Indian Gangetic Plain, especially in the
Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The main rivers of Nepal that enter India are the:

Narayani River
Karnali River
Kosi.

Each of these major river systems, and their numerous tributaries, ultimately becomes a
tributary of the Ganges River in northern India. After plunging through deep gorges, these
rivers deposit their heavy sediments and debris on the Indian plains. Once they reach the
Terai Region, they often overflow their banks onto wide floodplains during the summer
monsoon season, periodically shifting their courses. Besides providing fertile alluvial soil,
the backbone of the agrarian economy, these rivers present great possibilities for hydroe-
lectric and irrigation development but neither has been adequately developed. Further,
their deep gorges represent immense obstacles to establishing the development of perma-
nent and reliable transport and communication networks needed to integrate the national
economy. As a result, the economy and governance in Nepal has remained fragmented; and
due to the high costs of bridge and roadway construction in the mountains and across river
gorges, most settlements in the Hill and Mountain regions remain isolated.

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 EXAMPLES OF NEPAL’S RIVER GORGES

LOW WATER DURING PEAK PERIODS OF RUN OFF LOW WATER

As a result of earlier melt and runoff, combined with the funneling effects of Nepal’s river
courses, the volume of the rivers grow. What starts as one small drop of glacier and snow
melt water, by the time it reaches the border between Nepal and India, has grown into riv-
ers of gargantuan proportions, and typically flow into India virtually uncontrolled. See the
sequence of photos for the Kosi River, below. Once they encounter the Indian Plain, they
begin to spread out, flooding much of eastern Uttar Pradesh and much of modern Bihar.

THE KOSI RIVER IN NEPAL – LOW WATER THE KOSI RIVER, BIHAR, INDIA – LOW WATER

Page | 35
 THE KOSI RIVER IN BIHAR, INDIA – FULL FLOOD STAGE

Of Bihar’s 38 districts, no fewer than 24 – the northernmost districts – have experienced

extensive flooding over the last seven years; and no district in the state can claim it has not
experienced flooding at one time or another. In some cases, 80 percent of some districts
have been flooded with the waters reaching a depth of 10 feet (3.048 meters). 63 These
flooding conditions obtain for much of the monsoon season – June to September – with ca-
tastrophic economic and social consequences. Infrastructures are destroyed, as roads,
bridges, and railroads are washed away. Homes are destroyed, and often, hundreds of lives
are lost each year.

Due to the lack of water management in Nepal, Bihar becomes the hapless recipient of Nep-
al’s water abundance. Consequently, India has sought to engage the Nepalese government
in dialogues, which it hoped would lead to a joint venture that would result in the rivers
that pour into Bihar being dammed and future flooding, controlled, or at least managed,
downstream. After more than 60 years of meetings, nothing concrete has been negotiated
between the two governments.

Neither side truly sees any genuine advantage to the construction of costly high dams nor
the enormous costs associated with their maintenance. The Nepalese have nothing to gain
from the construction of dams or barrages for the purposes of flood abatement in India.
While the Indians seen a flood abatement benefit, they are unwilling to shoulder the
enormous costs associated with the dams. Every river leaving Nepal carries with it a huge
burden in the form of silt, sand, gravel, and stone. If dams were constructed, this burden
would collect on the upstream side of the dam, necessitating a massive maintenance or

63 Author’s personal experience in Darbhanga District, Bihar.

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 FLOODING IN BIHAR, INDIA FLOODING IN BANGLADESH

THESE PHOTOS COULD HAVE BEEN AS EASILY TAKEN IN THE TERAI OF NEPAL. ROADWAYS ARE NOW CONSTRUCTED, ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY. ON THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES BUT THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY INSURE THAT THEY WILL NOT BE BREACHED
AND WASHED AWAY.

dredging effort. Without the removal of the burden, the effective lifespan of the dam is re-
duced markedly.

Rather than make a commitment to one another, the Nepalese and Indian governments
take the most politically economic course of action – they do nothing; they delay, they beat
their chests, and point fingers at one another. These strategies may well be their best over-
all strategy.64

FLOODING – A MAN-MADE DISASTER: BANGLADESH & BIHAR

In both the Indian states of Bihar and West Bengal, and Bangladesh, flooding, although
viewed as a form of natural disaster, is in reality also the result of Man’s attempt to alter his
physical environment to his immediate needs, with no thought given to the long-term con-

64 See (Rorabacher, 2008), p. 49.

Page | 37
sequences of those actions. Floods, in the absence of human involvement, are just floods,
part of a millennia old natural hydrologic process. Whenever humans become involved in
floods, either as agents of change or as part of the natural landscape, floods take on anthro-
pomorphic attributes. They become disasters, catastrophes, calamities, or tragedies and
often people lose their lives, their possessions, their homes, and their means of livelihood.

Bangladesh, as we have already seen, is a flat and low-lying delta. Together with West Ben-
gal, Bangladesh is part of a one-of-a-kind delta. Most deltas are the product of a single river,
but the Bengal Delta is the creation of three mighty rivers – the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and
Meghna. Both the delta and these rivers are unique and the delta is only one of the unique
aspects of this combination. In order to understand the nature of the delta and, therefore,
some of the problems it poses for Bangladesh, a few facts are in order:

 The catchment basins for the three rivers is only about half that of the Mis-
sissippi River.
 The catchment basin involves five different countries – Nepal, India, Bhutan,
China, and Bangladesh.
 Most deltas represent a very small percentage of the countries where they
are found. In the case of Bangladesh, it is all delta.
 The rainfall received by the three rivers’ catchment basins is four times that
of the Mississippi.
 Unlike most river systems, these three rivers receive 86 percent of their rain-
fall within a four-month rainy season (June – September).
 Combined, these three rivers carry approximately two billion tons of sedi-
ment, in the form of silt, sand, gravel, and stone. This is the highest bur-
den/sediment volume of any other river system in the world. 65
 The combined lengths of the rivers is about two times that of the Mississippi
(computed).66

TAKEN TOGETHER: BANGLADESH IS THE PRODUCT OF ONE OF THE MIGHTIEST

RIVER SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD. THE HYDRAULIC AND DELTA-FORMING
PROCESSES THAT ARE AT WORK IN BANGLADESH ARE GARGANTUAN IN THEIR
PROPORTIONS, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PROPORTIONS, ARE EQUALLY
LARGE PROBLEMS.

Most deltas go through a series of stages in their development, and in its final stages, the
delta-building process begins to slow. Today, the Bengal Delta is still growing at a youthful
rate. In the later stages of delta building, portions of the river’s floodplain become aban-

65 (Islam, 1990?).
66 Approximate river lengths: Ganges – 2,510 km, Meghna – 670 km, Brahmaputra – 2,900; and Mississippi –
3,743, based on Wikipedia articles for each river. Islam reports the combined lengths of the three South Asian
rivers to be 3 times that of the Mississippi, which would be incorrect.

Page | 38
doned. These floodplains are seldom subject to further inundation. Little of the Bengal Del-
ta has reached this stage of development.

Delta and floodplain building is normally calculated in terms of centuries or thousands of

years. Recent evidence suggests that these processes are not slowing for the Bengal Delta,
in fact, it is suggested that the rate is quickening. Global Warming is causing the glaciers
and snow in the Himalayas to melt more quickly and earlier than in the past. This, com-
bined with temperature driven ocean evaporation, and this increased atmospheric mois-
ture is causing heavier and more intense rainfalls in the mountains. The combination of in-
creased glacial melt, snow runoff, increased precipitation, and changes in the onset of the
monsoons, change the peak flows of the rivers that run through Bangladesh. The increased
volumes also mean that the rivers can carry more sediment downstream, because of in-
crease water volumes and increased water speed. These forces, when combined with an
increased availability of sediment, caused by erosion following deforestation in Nepal and
India, means that more and more sediment is being transported downstream and depo-
sited both in the river channels and at the mouths of the rivers. These processes, effectively
build up the riverbed and the natural levees along the rivers. Added to this mix is the fact
that the sea level is rising. The higher seal level means that upstream flooding is delayed,
and lands that once drained quickly after being flooded, are covered with water for a much
longer period. The longer the land is flooded, the greater the likelihood that it could be-
come waterlogged and no longer useful for agricultural purposes or habitation.

LEVEES AND EMBANKMENTS

No matter where in the world, when flooding occurs, politicians normally either exploit or
defend against them, which, in terms of political economy, is essentially the same thing.
Politicians are sensitive to their constituents needs, and will endeavor to exploit those
needs whenever possible in return for support. History has shown, however, that when
politicians become involved in environmental problems, their solutions, more often than
not, cause more confusion and exacerbate already difficult situations. This has been the
case in Bangladesh and the adjoining states of India, when it comes to floods and flooding.

The typical cultivator in Bangladesh or India simply wants protection from the floods. At
least initially, these cultivators do not care what the ‘solution’ to their flooding problem is.
It is only later that solutions come under scrutiny. For both the cultivator and the politician,
their response to floods is more knee-jerk than well thought-out remedies. In the past,
when there was much less pressure to make every bit of land as productive as possible,
floods in India and Bangladesh were celebrated events. Cultivators understood the floods.
They understood when they would arrive, how deep they would be, and how long their
lands would be under water. They understood the fertilizing effects of the silt that came
with the floods. As a consequence, they were prepared.

However, as populations grew, greater and greater demands were made on both the culti-
vators and the land to produce more food. Once all available cultivable land had been

Page | 39
brought into production, the only way to increase food production was to intensify – work
the land more intensely. Flooding kept cultivators off the land, oftentimes for months on
end. The demand for food meant that these cultivators could not afford to be ‘off the land.’
Soon, the benefits of silt-fertilization was forgotten. It was more important to be on the
land, working it.

‘Logic’ tells both cultivators and politicians that, if the waters can be either contained or
removed from the land quickly, the cultivators will find the protection they want. Almost
invariably, since removing the water is not a practical or realistic alternative, both the cul-
tivators and politicians arrive at the same conclusion. If levees or embankments could be
built, they would prevent the floodwaters from encroaching on their fields, and this would
‘protect’ the cultivators and their lands from the ravages of future floods.

Although it was not until rapid population growth and the need to feed more and more
mouths was felt, that the governments in South Asia became involved in the construction of
flood protection levees was begun in earnest. The construction of embankments was not a
new idea. The first embankments were probably constructed well before the Moguls by
private landowners.67 Later, when the British gained hegemony over much of South Asia,
they dabbled with flood control using embankments. Within a span of only fifteen years,
the British Raj abandoned all flood-control projects involving levees, and within 50 years,
they had removed all their earlier artifacts.68

Following Independence in India, the lure of embankments was revisited in Bihar and parts
of West Bengal. Later, following the 1988 flood in Bangladesh, the government there
adopted a World Bank sponsored flood protection program, commonly referred to as the
FAP (Flood Action Plan). This Plan called for the construction of embankments along the
great rivers of the Bangladesh Delta, enormous drains, and compartments on the flood
plains to serve as catch basins. Additional embankments were added to the already existing
embankments system. Today, there are approximately 5,695 kms of embankments, includ-
ing 3,433 kms in the coastal areas, 1,695 flood control/regulating structures, and 4,310
kms of drainage canals, all constructed by the Bangladesh Water Development Board over
the last several decades.69

History began to repeat itself, as the Government of Bangladesh adopted the World Bank’s
program and accepted its money. Again, the effectiveness of embankments came under at-
tack. Such structures have, time and again, been debated and found to be no match for the
rivers of eastern India or Bangladesh. A number of studies and numerous journal articles
have reported that embankments simply do not and cannot protect cultivators or their
lands from flooding. Each has concluded that the total amount of damage to the economy,

67 Sixteenth through 18th centuries.

68 See the discussion, (Rorabacher, 2010), pp. 237-246, passim.
69 (Khalequzzaman, 2004).

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crops, and infrastructures, due to floods, has steadily increased in spite of all efforts to con-
trol them.70

The problems associated with embankments include:

 The rapid build-up of silt, sand, gravel, and stone in the riverbeds.
 The scouring of the embankments resulting in catastrophic breaches.
 The increased height of the mean water levels, caused by sediment build-ups
in the embanked river channels.
 The increased destruction and devastation caused by elevated river waters
that cascade from above the floodplain, when the levees breach.
 Increased waterlogging outside the embankments, caused by floodwaters be-
ing trapped with no way to return to the rivers that are now elevated above
the surrounding floodplain.

Surprisingly, more land has been lost to embankment-related problems and processes than
have ever been lost to over-cultivation. When the natural flows of rivers are modified, and
they are not permitted to expand and contract with the seasons, the floodplain and the
people suffer. In most cases, agricultural productivity declines. Today, cultivators must le-
verage their agricultural production. They cannot afford to waste even a slightest advan-
tage. Man-made floods, it would seem, are working against the cultivators in the fields.

While the devastating effects of flooding are bad enough – the loss of crops, livestock,
homes, possessions, and human lives – there are costs associated with government relief
efforts, in both India and Bangladesh. Each year governments, at all levels, must organize
and implement a variety of relief plans. Initially, they must save lives. They must provide
food, water, shelter, and public health services to combat waterborne diseases and the ef-
fects of human waste in makeshift refugee camps. These efforts, while aided by interna-
tional aid agencies and workers, represents a gigantic, repetitive drain on the scare re-
sources of both India and Bangladesh.

In addition, the government must repair or replace damaged infrastructure. Often, bridges,
railways, roads, and overland communication systems are devastated by the floods. Years
of development work can be undermined and destroyed in a matter of hours, or even mi-
nutes. Due to the natural physiography of Bangladesh, transport infrastructures have al-
ways been expensive and difficult to construct. Thus, floods only serve to weaken an al-
ready enfeebled system.

Floods have an ‘across the board’ impact on the people of Bangladesh – economically, so-
cially, and politically. Undoubtedly, one of the most difficult problems confronting the gov-
ernment of Bangladesh is disaster preparedness. Unfortunately, much like large areas in
both India and Nepal, the government seems to have no long-term plans in place to deal
with repeat disaster situations. Each disaster comes ‘as some kind of surprise’ despite the

70 Ibid.

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fact that the country is visited by numerous such disasters annually. Likewise, plans for
dams, bridges, and drainage systems are poorly conceived and even more poorly imple-
mented. Part of this problem stems from a lack of a system to oversee regional and even
local coordination. Part of this lack of coordination extends to water control projects with
adjacent nations, particularly Nepal.

[In response to a request by the Judiciary of the State of Bihar, the author prepared a posi-
tion paper dealing with the breach of the Afflux Bund in Nepal that resulted in the flooding
of a large area of northern Bihar in August 2008. Many of the comments made in that posi-
tion paper are applicable to the situation as it prevails in Bangladesh, especially as regards
the construction of embankments, their maintenance, and emergency preparedness and
response.]71

GLOBAL WARMING AND BIODIVERSITY

Biodiversity in human agriculture has, repeatedly, proven to be its redeeming quality. One
need only look to the consequences of monocropping to see the benefit of maintaining a
broad range of similar yet different genetic crop pools. The impact of the ‘Irish Potato Fa-
mine’ was the result of the introduction of a blight, thought to have originated in the Andes,
transported to the United States, and then on to Europe in circa 1844.72

A similar catastrophe struck the French vineyards in the late 1860s. An aphid introduced
from the New World was brought to France, where it wreaked havoc on the French vi-
neyards.73 Nothing seemed to stop the aphid invasion. Finally, New World grape root-stock
was grafted to the French vines, and the French vineyards and wine industry was saved.

The same pattern has been repeated numerous times throughout history, with a variety of
other food crops.74 Each time, a blight or disease has been eliminated by the introduction of
a new plant variety. However, this pattern is changing. The world’s agricultural diversity is
shrinking rapidly. See Box 1.

OVER THE LAST QUARTER CENTURY, WE HAVE WITNESSED A RAPID DECLINE IN

THE NUMBER OF PLANT VARIETIES AVAILABLE TO CULTIVATORS. APPROXIMA-
TELY 8 PERCENT OF ALL KNOW PLANT FOOD VARIETIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING

71(Rorabacher, The August 2008 Breach of the Kosi Afflux Bund and Resulting Flood: An Assessment Paper
Prepared for the Bihar Judiciary Enquiry, 2009). This paper became part of the docket for the Judicial Enquiry
but was not formally published. A copy of this paper is available at:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14876270/A-Position-Paper-Prepared-for-the-Bihar-Judicial-Enquiry-into-the-
2008-Kosi-Breach-and-Floods.
72 Before 1842, there is no hard evidence that the blight, Phytophthora infestans, that destroyed the Irish potato

crop had existed anywhere in Europe. See (Donnelly, 2001), p. 41; (Kinealy, 2006); and (Paddock, 1992).
73 See, (Smith, 2005)and (Tobin, 2005), p. 628.
74 Similar situations have been recorded for such crops as maize, rice, wheat, etc., all the main food crops.

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 EXPLOITED; AND ONLY 12 PLANT SPECIES AND 5 ANIMAL SPECIES ACCOUNT FOR
75 PERCENT OF THE WORLD’S FOOD SUPPLY! 75

This loss of biodiversity – both plant and animal – has resulted from conscious human deci-
sions regarding the use or non-use of certain plant varieties and animals, and the develop-
ment of hybrid varieties and GMO (Genetically Modified Organism) plant varieties more
recently. The consequence of this genetic narrowing of the plant and animal base makes
the world’s food supply vulnerable to both disease and climatic changes.76 This ‘genetic
erosion’ is the result of the ‘industrialization’ of modern agriculture, especially as it applies
to the so-called ‘mega crops’ – wheat, rice, and maize, which are the source of more than 60
percent of Mankind’s food energy.77

This industrialization or commercialization of agriculture has been in response to an in-

creased demand for food as the world’s population has grown at an accelerated rate over
the last 65 years, increasing more than three-fold since 1945. Tremendous amounts of hu-
man energy, ingenuity, and time have been devoted to the creation of ever more sophisti-
cated and productive plant varieties. However, the creation of these new plant types has
compartmentalized the farmers of the world and plant researchers. Farmers and research-
ers too often work in different realities. Researchers breed plant hybrids in the laboratory.
These hybrids are only truly successful under ideal conditions, requiring just the right in-
puts of water, fertilizer, and pesticides. For most farmers, such conditions simply do not
exist. As a consequence, their production does not imitate the results found in the laborato-
ry

As our stock of seed varieties narrows, we place ourselves in the position of having to take
ever greater risks, especially at a time when the process of climate change is already upon
us. Plant varieties have developed and later have been bred to respond to certain environ-
mental conditions. Among these conditions is temperature. Certain crops currently thrive
only within a narrow range of temperatures. If temperatures are too cold or too warm,
these plants simply do not flourish. Plants are incredibly temperature sensitive and can
perceive changes of as little as one degree Celsius.

A recent report in the journal Cell, demonstrates how plants not only 'feel' the temperature
rise, but can, in some cases, also coordinate an appropriate response -- activating hundreds
of genes and deactivating others; it turns out it's all about the way their DNA is packaged.78
Crops such as wheat are particularly vulnerable to very hot and dry summers.79 This de-
cline in production is the direct result of global warming and changes in precipitation and
water regimes around the world, a fact recognized by the International Maize and Wheat

75 (FAO, 1999).
76(IDRC and CRDI, 2010 [Refreshed]).
77 Ibid.
78 (Cell Press, 2010).
79 Ibid.

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 BOX 1 - 100 YEARS OF AGRICULTURAL CHANGE:
SOME TTRENDS AND FIGURES RELATING
TO AGRO-BIODIVERSITY80

 Some 75% of plant genetic diversity

Improvement Center, or CIMMYT, one of the lead-
ing wheat and maize research and breeding cen-
ters in the world.81 The research announced in Cell
deals with a small flowering plant native
to Europe, Asia, and northwestern Africa, called
Arabidopsis thaliana -- thale cress or mouse-ear
cress. It is not one of the mega crops that ‘feeds the
world,’ and it only suggests what might be possi-
ble, and in all likelihood, it will take decades to un-
cover similar properties in rice, wheat, and maize,
and even more time to turn these characteristics
into commercially cultivable crops. While plant
geneticists work to release each food crop’s native
ability to respond to climate changes, or artificially
create new crop strains to do this; there will be, at
the same time, demands for increased crop yields
on the order of 70 to 100 percent over the next
100 years. But as Philip Wigge of the John Innes
Centre in the U.K. suggests:
has been lost since the 1900s as far-
mers worldwide have left their mul-
tiple local varieties and "landraces"
for genetically uniform, high-yielding
varieties.
 30% of livestock breeds are at risk of
extinction; six breeds are lost each
month.
 Today, 75% of the world's food is
generated from just 12 plants and five
animal species.
 Of the 4% of the 250 000 to 300 000
known plant species that are edible,
only 150 to 200 are used by humans
and only three - rice, maize and
wheat - contribute nearly 60% of cal-
ories and proteins obtained by hu-
mans from plants.
 Animals provide some 30% of human
requirements for food and agriculture
and 12% of the population live almost
entirely on products from ruminants.

Under climate change, it will be challenging simply to maintain

present yields, let alone increase them.82

In agriculture, almost every improvement is not measured in terms of seasons but in terms
of decades, and more often, in terms of generations. For example, in Bangladesh, it was dis-
covered that, due to a diet consisting largely of rice, many people suffer from a Vitamin A
deficiency, which results in blindness in children, along with other immune-deficiencies. In
1972 Dr. Ingo Potrykus of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology decided to create a va-
riety of rice that, unlike all other rice varieties, would produce â-carotene, from which the
human body can produce Vitamin A. It took 27 years before Dr. Potrykus had his first Gol-
den Rice plants, known as GR-1. The first field testing was begun in 2004. It will not be until

80 (FAO, 1999).
81 (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), 23-25 April 2001).
82 (Cell Press, 2010).

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2011 that it will be finally released. Nearly 40 years will have passed between conception,
inception, and final release.83

If catastrophic climate change is, as the environmentalists suggest, already upon us, and
our very food sources are already succumbing to the effects of global warming, do we have
sufficient time to adapt? The development of new strains of the mega crops that are capa-
ble of surviving the effects of increased temperatures, are decades away. Do we have the
time needed to see these new crops make their way from the laboratory to the field?

TO CONTINUE TO CHANT THAT WE CAN SOMEHOW REVERSE GLOBAL WARMING,

IF ONLY WE STOP PUMPING ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GASES INTO THE AT-
MOSPHERE, IS NOT ONLY SHORTSIGHTED BUT DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS.

We need to change our focus and now!! The world would simply collapse economically if
we immediately stopped pumping anthropogenic greenhouse and industrial pollutants into
the atmosphere, even if it was possible. Further, we have absolutely no idea how long it
would or will take for the damage we are supposed to have done to the atmosphere to rec-
tify itself, assuming that it is even reversible.

If the experts are correct,

 We will require 70 to 100 percent more food to feed ourselves within the
next 100 years at current population growth rates.
 Current crop varieties have nearly all reached their production limits.
 There are currently no ‘silver bullet’ solutions coming on-line any time soon.
 The creation of new crop varieties typically takes 40 or more years, from la-
boratory to commercial field production.
 The effects of global warming on existing crops is already being felt.

CURRENTLY, WE ARE FOCUSING OUR EFFORTS ON THE WRONG PORTION OF THE

CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING CONTINUUM. IT IS LIKE PREPARING FOR A
BATTLE AFTER THE BATTLE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. IT IS TOO LATE TO
WORRY ABOUT STOPPING OR REVERSING CLIMATE CHANGE. WE NEED TO ACCEPT
THE FACT THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS A NATURAL PROCESS, IT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL IT STOPS, AND NO MATTER WHAT WE DO, WE CANNOT ALTER THE CLI-
MATIC OUTCOME.

We can begin, however, adapting to the coming change but even that opportunity may have
passed us by. We have spent too much valuable time debating if climate change and global
warming are real phenomena. We have spent too much time thinking we can stop or re-
verse the processes.

83 See, (Mayuga, 2007); (Golden Rice Humitarian Board, 2008); and (Potrykus, n.d.).

Page | 45
If there are, what some writers have suggested, ‘tilting points,’ in the global warming cycle,
we may have already passed them. The trend line for world temperature is rising. There
may be oscillations or fluctuations along this line but the climate is changing. If we do not
make plans for a very different future, all we will have left is a past. We will be like so many
other species that have Come and GONE before us. Mankind is not invincible.

We need to seriously consider the fact that, within the next 100 years, Mankind could be
well on its way to being extinct. If we do not create new plant varieties now, we could easily
starve to death. Worrying about the temperature adaptive qualities of Thale cress, while an
interesting undertaking, distracts us from producing heat resistant strains of wheat, rice,
and maize – the foods we depend on. If Thale cress can direct us in the right direction, and
if every plant has the same genetic capabilities, all well and good, but we need the new
heat-resistant crops soon, today is already gone.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PLANT MIGRATION

In the absence of climate tolerant or adapted species of the mega cereals, rising tempera-
tures will have the effect of ‘pushing’ grains to higher and higher elevations. Essentially, as
average temperatures rise, the primary foodgrains will tend to migrate to areas that match
their preferred ecological requirements of temperature and moisture. Since temperatures
decline with elevation, the more temperature sensitive grains will move to higher eleva-
tions if they are to survive. Otherwise, they will simply become extinct.

Those species already adapted to the cooler temperatures, likewise, will move to still high-
er elevations, pushing less well-adapted species out. Eventually, certain species will simply
cease to exist because there is no longer an ecological niche available to them. However, as
these species move upward, the land area available to support them also decreases. In the
case of food crops, decreased area means total production will decrease as well.

If Man were not involved, this plant succession would happen naturally. With the aid of
Man, the pace of succession is hastened. In a natural succession sequence, the processes
involved would include colonization, establishment, and extinction. Climate can influence
succession but does not necessarily cause it. Other factors, such as soil types, nutrients,
moisture availability, etc., also play a part in any successful succession sequence.84 This is
often termed allogenic succession.

Unless new foodgrain types are realized, existing grains will migrate, either naturally or
through the agency of Man, or they will become extinct. If they migrate to suitable locales,
at higher elevations, the area available for cropping will decrease, with one of two possible
outcomes. Either the food supply will decrease and a portion of Mankind will perish; or if
the existing plants are unable to adapt and become vestigial, all of Mankind will perish. In

84 See for example, (Neilson, Ronalf F., et. al., 2005).

Page | 46
either situation, the number of humans on Earth will be reduced in numbers or, possibly,
eliminated.

GLOBAL WARMING AND WATER

Typically, water is a recyclable resource. It falls on the earth as rainfall or snowfall and re-
turns to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration of plants or evaporation from lakes,
rivers, and the oceans. Humans obtain the water they require by diverting a portion of ru-
noff for their various needs. UNESCO reports:

Our primary source of water is runoff diverted by humans for use

in irrigated agriculture, in industry and in homes (rural and ur-
ban); for consumption of various kinds; and for waste disposal. It
is the water of evapotranspiration that mainly supports forests,
rainfed cultivated and grazing land, and a variety of ecosystems.
Despite a withdrawal of only 8 percent of total annual renewable
freshwater resources, it has been estimated that 26 percent of
annual evapotranspiration and 54 percent of accessible runoff is
now appropriated by humans. 85

As population grows, agricultural requirements for water, as well as for industry and man-
ufacturing, and water for drinking and sanitation continue to grow. All these competing
needs, until fairly recently, have been operating in a sustainable equilibrium. Today, how-
ever, demand is beginning to exceed availability.

According to the OECD:

One consequence of this rising demand is scarcity. The global per

capita availability of freshwater has dropped from 17,000 m3 a
year in 1950 to 7,300 m3 in 1995. There are now more people in
the world, of course, but there has also been a decline in availa-
ble uncontaminated freshwater resources. This scarcity is not
just on the surface; groundwater abstraction is beginning to ex-
ceed replenishment in some locations. Add to this the specter of
pollution from industry, mining and farming around the world,
including the major cities, and the picture worsens.86

It is estimated that today more than 2 billion people are affected by water shortages; 1.1
billion do not have enough to drink; and 2.4 billion have no provision for sanitation.87 Pre-
dictions suggest that by 2025 more than half of all countries will face freshwater stress or

85 (UNESCO, 2003), p. 10, quoted from (Shiklomanov, 1997).

86 (Clarke, 2003).
87 (UNESCO, 2003), p. 10.

Page | 47
shortages and by 2050 as much as 75 percent of the world's population could face freshwa-
ter scarcity.88 See Map 5.

Water scarcity takes two primary forms:

Physical Scarcity – Is not necessarily a factor of absolute quantity; it occurs fre-

quently in both dry and moist climates. Rather, it is a relative concept comparing the
availability of water to actual use-need. Desert regions, for example, are not classi-
fied as water scarce if demand for water is low. However, scarcity may exist in wa-
ter-abundant areas if there is heavy population pressure, excessive pollution, or un-
sustainable consumption levels. Together, these forms of physical water scarcity af-
fect every continent and approximately one-fifth of the world’s population.

Economic Scarcity -- Economic water scarcity occurs when water resources are ab-
undant relative to water use, but insufficient infrastructure or financial capacity
prevents people from accessing the water they need. This situation plagues an addi-
tional 1.6 billion people worldwide, predominantly the rural poor and particularly
in Africa.

The largest area of physical water scarcity is throughout much of non-Russian Asia and
across northern Africa, areas typically viewed as arid or desert. Economic scarcity covers a
much broader area – most of China and Southeast Asia, Australia, the coastal areas of the
India subcontinent, much of sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, and most of South America.

In many areas where economic water scarcity prevails, it is obvious that the actual amount
of water – in the form of rivers or rainfall – is much less of a factor that accessibility to it. In
physically scarce areas, the consequences of global warming will only exacerbate already
difficult conditions.

If it were not bad enough that rapid population growth, agricultural demands, along with
manufacturing and drinking water and sanitation are making greater and greater demands
on existing water resources; the entire scenario is now complicated by global warming. In-
itially, the effects of global warming were first seen as almost imperceptible changes in the
on-set and retreat of the monsoons in South Asia. It appeared that monsoon rainfall was
decreasing on a very localized basis. More recently, this phenomenon seems to become
more pronounced and even more widespread. In other areas, the rains seem to be more
forceful and have intensified.

In other areas of the world, for example Africa, rising temperatures are accompanied by
quantitatively lower rainfall. This combination of higher temperatures and less rain has

88 (Hightower, Mike & Suzanne A. Pierce, 2008).

Page | 48
MAP 5

Source: IWMI

Page | 49
served to accelerate or increase the land’s vulnerability to a process known as desertifica-
tion.89 See Map 6. Throughout the world, those areas most vulnerable to desertification are-
those immediately adjacent to historic deserts, since this region remains in a delicate bal-
ance between desert and semi-arid lands. The equilibrium shifts away from desert condi-
tions as rainfall increases. This pattern is most visibly apparent in Africa, Pakistan, and
northwestern India and much of Australia.

The process of desertification can be accelerated by man, largely through the process of de-
forestation. Typically, deforestation precedes the expansion of agriculture and follows an
increased need for wood for domestic or commercial uses. Desertification can also follow
on the heels of excessive groundwater withdrawals or following long periods of drought,
forcing cultivators to abandon agriculture all together in some areas.

DROUGHTS

Droughts are, when compared to all other natural disasters, the most deadly. The media are
always eager to report on the effects of typhoons, cyclones, hurricanes, tsunamis, and
earthquakes. Their cameras are at the ready to film the victims – the survivors and the
dead – during rescue operations. Once relief begins to pour in, the stories fade from our TV
screens and from newspapers and other printed media. Droughts, and the famines typically
associated with them, are much less glamorous but no less deadly.

DROUGHTS ARE BY FAR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND FAR-REACHING NATURAL

DISASTERS KNOWN TO MANKIND.

More than 462 million people were affected by drought (including deaths and homeless-
ness) in South Asia, alone, during 2000-2004.90 Guha-Sapir states:

. . . between 1974 and 2003 there were 6,367 natural between

1974 and 2003 there were 6,367 natural
disasters, not counting epidemics. This resulted in the
reported deaths of slightly more than 2 million individuals,
about 5.1 billion people being cumulatively
affected, 182 million persons made homeless and
estimated reported damages of US$1.38 trillion.91
Only in the last decade, 86% of all disaster-related
deaths were caused by natural hazards, with just
14% resulting from technological disasters such as
transport or industrial accidents. Asia alone suffered
75% of the deaths from natural disasters.

89 See, (Reich, 2001a) and (Reich, 2001b).

90 (UNESCAP, March 3, 2005), p. 4.
91 It is the author’s, and others’ opinion, as well, that Guha-Sapir’s estimate 2 million killed is possibly a misprint.
We believe that the figure should probably have been 2 billion, not 2 million.

Page | 50
MAP 6 – DESERTIFICATION VULNERABILITY, AFRICA

Source: (Reich, 2001b)

Page | 51
 These figures may seem very high, but they are
probably underestimates. For example, droughts
reportedly killed 500,367 people in Ethiopia over
the last three decades. But some estimate that the
number of people who died from the great
Ethiopian drought of 1984-1985 alone may have
numbered between 600,000 and 1 million. Even
worse is the case of economic damages, where not
more than a third of reported disasters estimate
economic losses.

Such large numbers may appear abstract and difficult

to conceptualise, but they are a harsh reality for
families who have lost loved ones, had their homes
reduced to rubble, or have watched their investments
destroyed by natural disasters.92

Of the five most devastating natural disasters on record, three are droughts, and most of
these occurred in Africa – Ethiopia, Sudan, Sahelia, and Mozambique.

The Ethiopian, Sudan, and Sahelian droughts are particularly notable, not just because of
the number of people that died, but because their deaths were reported as ‘deaths due to
drought.’ Most often, the cause of death is given as infectious diseases but rarely because of
malnutrition or ‘drought.’ For government officials, death by infection sounds more politi-
cally correct than death due to starvation.

MOTHER AND CHILD DYING OF MALNUTRITION, SUDAN

92 (Guha-Sapir, 2004), p. 14.

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The other most deadly disasters are those having to do with floods. Of Guha-Sapir’s list of
the ten greatest disasters between 1974 and 2003, floods accounted for seven of the ten.
He estimates that 1.811 billion people were affected by floods or droughts!93
Asia and Africa bear a disproportionate burden of loss due to disasters. Over the last 30
years, approximately 88 percent of the total number of people reported killed and 96 per-
cent of the people reported affected lived in Asia and Africa. Of the total number of people
killed by natural disasters worldwide, over the last decade, more than 75 percent were in
Asia and Africa. This figure rises above 98 percent for droughts and famines!94

Floods and droughts are both a function of water. Both are destructive. Floods can cause
extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. Their impact on agriculture depends, in part,
on timing in relation to the cycle of the crops in the region. The area affected by floods can
be immense, depending on topographical features. Floods can develop slowly and be pre-
dictable or can occur suddenly. Most of the mortality linked to floods is caused by flash
floods, although many die because of subsequent water-borne and sanitation disease prob-
lems. Floods may kill fewer people than they affect, but the damage they cause is pervasive
and long term.

Droughts and famines do not result in infrastructural or shelter damage but they result in
heavy crop and livestock losses. They cover large areas and often affect several neighboring
regions or countries simultaneously. Famines are much more complex and can be caused
by crop failures, food shortages, or lack of access to food, droughts, disasters, such as
floods, and armed conflict or political instability. Famines can also lead to mass migrations,
which can create crowded conditions with poor sanitation and lead to outbreaks of disease.

HUNGER
At present, it is estimated that 17 percent more calories are produced each year per person
than 30 years ago.95 This statistic is astonishing in light of the fact that, while world popula-
tion increased at a break-neck pace, food production has kept ahead of it. World population
during this period grew a staggering 70 percent. Second, annually, over a billion people still
suffer from malnutrition and 30 million people die of hunger each year, most of whom are
children!96 See Illustration 1, below.

How does one put these kinds of figures in perspective? One billion people represents ap-
proximately 1/7th to 1/6th of the world’s total population. Thirty million deaths each year

93 (Guha-Sapir, 2004), p. 29. Guha-Sapir provides a table of the ten greatest disasters and the number of people
affected.
94 Ibid.
95 (FAO, 2002), p. 9.
96 FAO estimates the number of hungry in the world has increased to 1.02 billion up from its 854 million esti-
mate in 2007. See (FAO, 2009).

Page | 53
means that, only 39 of the 223 recognized nations in the world have populations larger
than the number of people who die of starvation each year! How is this possible?
ILLUSTRATION 1 – FAO ESTIMATES OF WORLD HUNGER97

In general, there is sufficient food, at least in terms of calories being produced by world
agriculture. So, the problem is not production but rather:

1) Food is unevenly distributed throughout the world;

2) Existing food is not readily redistributed;
3) Like any commodity, food is not available cost free, and most importantly;
4) Many people are too poor to purchase the food that is available.

Food is almost always available. Famine typically results when the food available is not
mobilized and redistributed among the needy. When it is not mobilized, people suffer, go
hungry, and even starve to death. The failure of governments to mobilize and respond to
crop and economic failure is ultimately the root cause of long-term human suffering in fa-
mine areas, according to Amartya Sen, a Nobel Economics Prize laureate.98

97 (FAO, 2009), p. 11. See also, the FAO Website,

http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm
98 See the series of essays and reports produced by Anup Shah at: (Shah, 1998-2010) and (Sen, 1983).

Page | 54
 THE PRINCIPAL PROBLEM IS THAT MANY PEOPLE IN THE WORLD DO NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT LAND TO GROW, OR INCOME TO PURCHASE, ENOUGH FOOD.

In the past, many of the deaths caused by drought, resulting in famine, were the result or
consequence of governments failing to act. That problem continues today in many parts of
the world. In the future, however, when droughts become permanent features on the hu-
man and physical landscape, it may not be due to governance that people starve. It could
well be that agriculture will be incapable of producing the calories needed to maintain our
population. Changes in climate, the reduction in our food-producing croplands, and the
failure of our food plant types and inventories to produce under the evolving weather and
climate regime may far exceed governments’ ability to ameliorate our food problems. We
will be facing a new world, a new age.

We may look back fondly on having only 1.02 billion people going to bed hungry every
night. People may well be heard talking about the good old days at the beginning of the 21st
Century.

THE FUTURE
Global warming will increase and intensify rainfall in some areas and decrease it in others.
For those areas already suffering from repetitive floods, they will get larger and more dead-
ly. For those areas, where water scarcity is already a problem, droughts will become more
frequent, more long lasting, and could become a permanent environmental condition. Since
floods and droughts are the most far-reaching and deadly disasters known to Mankind,
global warming, in its various guises, can only mean the human race will be placed under
greater and greater stress. Our very survival depends on adapting to these environmental
changes and challenges. Some areas of the world are better suited to adapting to these en-
vironmental problems but some areas, like those in Africa and South Asia, with their al-
ready large poor and poverty-stricken populations, will undoubtedly bear the brunt of
what nature has in store for us.

It does not matter if you subscribe to the idea that:

 the Earth is some kind of colossal sentient or insentient organism,

 as humans, we are responsible for the current changes in our environment,
or
 the global warming we are experiencing is simply part of a long-term, cyclic
natural process.

Mankind needs to face the new reality:

WE ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE OR STOP GLOBAL WARMING.

Page | 55
The sooner that humans realize that we are living in a responsive environment and that it
is much more forceful than we are and we begin to focus on adapting to the new realities of
our environment, the greater the chance for Mankind’s survival. If we continue to tilt at
windmills, in the belief we can somehow stop or reverse global warming, as former Vice
President Al Gore or the IPCC would have us believe, we will be signing the death warrants
for a large portion of the Earth’s population. If Mankind is going to survive the changes we
are facing, we must begin to look at the future, not the past or the present. We must begin
to adapt to future realities. If we do not begin to reprioritize, and we do not prepare for the
future, we, as a species, could join the ranks of those species now extinct.

Most of those species could not adapt to their changing environmental conditions. We can.
We have the ability, if only we have the foresight. And one of the most important considera-
tions facing us will be out ability to feed ourselves, since most of the crops we currently cul-
tivate exist and flourish within fairly narrow ecological niches, and those niches will be-
come ever more restrictive as our planet heats up. At the current rate of planetary warm-
ing, we may run out of time. The race to create new food crops, capable of feeding us,
should have begun long ago. The creation of the new food crops we will need will take dec-
ades to perfect. Do we have the luxury of decades? We have wasted much valuable time de-
bating whether or not global warming was real or not. Then we deluded ourselves, believ-
ing we could change the course of climatic events. How egotistical we are as a species.

Page | 56
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AN INVITATION

The author would genuinely appreciate any constructive criticism regarding this work. If
you will e-mail him at the address below, he will make every effort to respond. Please feel
free to contact the author at:

wolverine31@rogers.com.

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