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on M&A transactions will include this control premium and therefore likely result in a higher
valuation than a public market valuation.
DCF will also likely result in a higher valuation than the Comparable company analysis because
DCF is also a control based methodology and because most projections tend to be generous.
Whether DCF will be higher than precedent transactions is debatable but is fair to say that DCF
valuations tend to be more variable because the DCF is sensitive to multiple assumptions or
inputs
What are some other possible valuation methodologies in addition to the main three?
Other possible valuation methods are: leverage buyout (LBO) analysis, replacement value, and
liquidation value
Common Valuation Metrics
Probably the most common valuation metric used in banking is EV/ EBITDA. Others: EV/
EBIT, Price to Earnings (P/E), and Price to Book Value (P/BV)
Why not EV/ Earnings or Price/ EBITDA as valuation metrics?
EV/ Earnings is an apples to oranges comparison and is considered inconsistent due to the fact
that Earnings is dependent on capital structure and tend to vary. Similarly Price/ EBITDA is
inconsistent because Price is dependent on capital structure while EBITDA is unlevered. Price/
Earnings is fine because both are levered.
What is the formula for Enterprise Value?
EV= Market Value of Equity + Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest Cash
Walk me through a DCF?
In order to do a DCF analysis, first we need to project FCF for a period of time (five years). FCF
= EBIT Taxes + Depreciation & Amortization CAPEX then adjusted for Changes in Working
Capital. This is unlevered FCF b/c it does not include interest and is independent of debt and
capital structure.
Next use either Perpetuity Growth or Terminal Multiple method to predict the value of the
company/assets for years beyond the project period (5years) to get the Terminal Value. Using the
Growth method choose an appropriate growth rate such as expected gdp or inflation. To calculate
the terminal value multiply the last years FCF by 1 + growth rate / by discount rate growth
rate
FCF (1+Growth Rate)/ (Discount Rate- Growth Rate)
Multiple method and more often used take an operating metric for the last project period and
multiply by an appropriate valuation multiple. Most common is EBITDA. Typically select the
appropriate EBITDA multiple by taking what we concluded for our comparable company
analysis on a LTM basis.
Now that have projects of FCF and terminal values, to get to present value discount at the
weighted average cost of capital. Summing up the present value of the projected cahs flows and
the present terminal value gives us the DCF valuation. b/c used unlevered cash flows and WACC
the DCF represents EV.
What is WACC and how is it calculated?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate used in a DCF analysis to get the
present value of FCFs and terminal value. Represents cost of each type of capital weighted by
the respective percentage of each type of capital assumed for the companys optimal capital
structure. Specifically the formula for WACC is
WACC= Cost of Equity * % of Equity + Cost of Debt * %of Debt * (1- Tax rate) + Cost of
Preferred Equity * %of Preferred Equity
To estimate the Cost of Equity typically use the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To
estimate the cost of debt, we can analyze interest rates/yields of debt issued by similar
companies. Similar to cost of debt, estimating the cost of preferred requires us to analyze the
dividend yields on preferred stock issued by similar companies
Cost of Equity?
CAPM = Risk Free Rate * Beta * Equity Risk Premium.
Risk free rate typically chosen is a 10 or 20yr treasury. Beta should be levered and represents the
riskiness of the companys equity relative to the overall equity markets. The equity risk premium
is the amount that stocks are expected to outperform the risk free rate over the long-term.
What is Beta?