Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2016
()
2016
2016 GDP
6.4%2015 6.9% 5%
5.8%
2 2016 7
1.5% 300 10%
2016
6.6
/2016
/
ADR MSCI
2016 MSCI 5%2015 -1%A
A
2015
ADR
+ 3
33%2016
A
MSCI A
(i) (ii) (iii)
, Ph.D
+86(10)6627-3324 chenjie.liu@ghsl.cn
: S1420511070002
2016 20 2015
21% 19 2016 12
31%
2015 12 3
HK/China
24000
7%
7%
3%
4%
MXCN
61
65
7%
7%
5%
7%
MXHK
13309
13100
-2%
-2%
5%
3%
CSI300
3600
4000
10%
7%
7%
4%
MXAPJ (US$)
419
425
6%
1%
5%
7%
S&P500
2103
2100
0%
0%
10%
7%
STOXX600
384
400
4%
-7%
8%
12%
17%
6%
1800
7%
Note (1): TOPIX EPS based on fiscal, not calendar, years; i.e. 2016 represents
the fiscal year ending March 2017.
Note (2): STOXX600 target is as of Sep-16, others are as of end-16.
TOPIX
1602
YTD perf
150
140
+28%
130
120
+10%
110
100
+1%
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Dec-14
90
Jul-15
1.50
6.80
5%
22381
Jul-15
1.50
6.60
1%
Jun-15
2.0
4.1
0.2
6%
May-15
2.3
4.0
0.1
6%
May-15
6.1
3.7
CY17E
10500
Apr-15
6.0
3.5
HSI
CY16E
Mar-15
6.3
9948
USD
Mar-15
Asia ex Japan
6.1
World
3.1
China real GDP growth contribution (PPT)
Gross capital formation
2.6
Consumption
3.8
Net exports
0.5
China's interest and exchange rates
7D repo rate (%)
2.00
USD/CNY
6.41
6.4
HSCEI
Feb-15
6.9
Index
Target
(End-16)
Jan-15
China
Current
Level
(Dec 1)
Index
2017
Current
forecast
2.2
1.6
0.7
Global/regional
GS Real GDP
US
Euro area
Japan
Exhibit 5: These 20 names collectively express our macro, micro, and thematic views
Ticker
Company name
Sector
Quoted
Price
Listed
3M
15-17E
market
ADVT
EPSg
cap
(US$mn)
(%)
(US$mn)
15E
PEG
(X)
15E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/E
(X)
15E
P/B
(X)
GS
Rating
Potential
upside
(%)
Health Care
Health Care
Cons Stap
IT
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Cons Disc
Financials
CNY 24.5
CNY 36.1
CNY 213.8
CNY 33.8
CNY 24.0
CNY 44.2
CNY 27.2
CNY 34.1
CNY 24.3
CNY 16.6
7,301
6,094
41,974
21,474
3,961
5,467
11,239
57,764
6,832
25,220
77
32
75
132
100
99
60
479
32
133
20
20
10
35
27
24
25
11
22
15
1.2
1.2
1.6
0.6
1.3
1.8
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.7
23.7
24.3
16.2
21.4
34.2
41.9
14.4
11.3
24.1
10.1
19.9
20.3
14.7
15.4
24.6
32.6
11.5
10.4
19.4
8.7
3.1
6.3
4.1
6.9
5.4
7.6
5.3
1.8
3.7
1.8
B*
B
B*
B*
B*
B
B
B*
B*
B
60%
55%
42%
39%
35%
32%
28%
24%
20%
18%
Financials
Industrials
Telecom
IT
Industrials
Health Care
Cons Disc
IT
IT
Cons Disc
Average
HKD 27.4
HKD 47.9
HKD 90.4
HKD 154.3
HKD
6.7
HKD
7.0
USD 16.2
USD 84.0
USD 214.1
HKD 41.1
34,787
7,918
238,757
187,120
2,043
2,999
8,105
195,445
59,123
7,417
46,552
70
14
208
304
13
5
211
1,491
799
13
217
13
13
4
26
27
19
35
23
32
13
21
0.7
0.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.2
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.2
8.7
10.9
13.0
38.8
36.2
23.5
29.3
32.8
42.3
19.7
23.8
7.7
9.3
12.5
30.1
27.1
19.6
21.9
26.9
33.1
17.4
19.2
1.3
1.0
1.6
10.9
2.6
3.4
13.7
6.6
7.5
3.6
4.9
B
B*
B*
B*
B
B*
B
B
B
B
37%
34%
32%
31%
26%
26%
23%
21%
16%
11%
31%
2015 12 3
Chinas GDP growth may further slow in 2016 (GS forecast: 6.4% vs. 6.9% in 2015, the
lowest since 1989) as China is undertaking reforms to correct deep-rooted macro imbalances
and to nurture new growth driversharmonizing a New Normal growth profile. A
slowing (trend) growth path isnt surprising but the skepticism around the true growth
state of China, and the associated leverage/bad debt concerns, will remain elevated as our
alternative growth measure suggests that Chinas growth may be 1-2pp weaker than official
GDP statistics may indicate.
Externally, growth delta may slightly improve (GS forecast: 3.5% GDP growth vs. 3.1%
th
in 2015, 5 consecutive year of below 4% growth) but the overall organic growth momentum
remains sluggish. Furthermore, the US rate and political cycles, and the continuing
geopolitical tensions globally and their intertwined linkages with commodity prices, are
dynamic risks which are difficult to price. Overall, we envision an active event calendar,
globally and domestically, in 2016.
Reform should remain a topical issue in China as 2016 is the maiden year of the 13th
FYP, which carries significant economic and strategic importance. While we may see
acceleration of reform implementation in areas including SOE and capital markets, we also
expect more corporate (SOE) defaults (by itself a reform to reduce moral hazard) to
surface, which could sporadically provoke systemic concerns and market volatility.
That said, we believe a hard landing scenario remains a low probability event.
We believe China is well equipped to fend off systemic risks given its unique institutional
setup (strong state control), underappreciated balance sheets (high debt but also significant
assets), policy flexibility, and potential reform dividends if the right policies are in place. At the
risk of oversimplifying, we call the macro/policy dynamic an interplay between reform and
2015 12 3
forbearance, meaning that the policy pendulum will continue to swing between pursuing
structural reforms and supporting growth along a bumpy decelerating growth trajectory.
Not all things are flat and uncertain. A new normal growth era is ushering in new waves of
demand and creating a New China group in the equity universe which represents the
secular growth propellants in China for years to come.
We believe equity market volatility will likely stay high in a reform vs forbearance setup,
thereby suppressing the markets Sharpe ratios.
2.
Earnings outlook could stay subdued as we forecast mid-single-digit EPS growth for H
and A shares in 2016, and a similar profile for 2017. We are below consensus for both
markets, implying robust organic growth should remain a scarcity.
3.
Valuations appear fair benchmarking against our macro forecasts, with both MXCN and
CSI300 trading at mid-cycle valuations. Liquidity conditions should stay conducive to asset
prices (rate cuts, asset reallocation flows, and index inclusion flows), but we see limited room
for a sustainable re-rating at the index level unless concerns about structural imbalances
recede, most likely triggered by more forceful reform execution.
4.
A more balanced growth/valuation tradeoff leads us to conclude that China no longer stands
favorably compared with its regional peers, especially in 1Q where we expect a meaningful
macro sequential slowdown and A-share liquidity headwinds. As such, we lower China to
Marketweight from Overweight and forecast 7% price return for MXCN in 2016,
largely on earnings accruals. We added China to Overweight on Nov 21, 2013. MXCN has
dropped 5% since then, but outperformed APJ/EM by 6pp/13pp in US$.
5.
1Q is typically a strong quarter for A shares, but we foresee two liquidity risks in 1Q16
resumption of IPOs and expiry of the selling ban from major shareholders. But the more
important subject for A shares is how easy liquidity and growth scarcity are being priced.
Dual-listed A shares are trading at 50% premium over H, and high-growth small caps have
rallied 80% ytd and are trading at 45x forward P/E. We forecast CSI300 to reach 4000 (no
change) by end-16, 10% upside from here.
6.
Growth scarcity, risk/reward, and Rmb risks are the key axes in our thematic thinking. We
would build core positions around New China stocks, which managed to grow top/bottom-line by 37%/45% in 1H15. In Old China, select SOE reform beneficiaries and
bottomed out old economy stocks look attractive given where they are traded in terms
of valuations and profitability expectations. To hedge the Rmb deval risks in the equity space,
we like fundamentally sound companies which may benefit when the Rmb weakens,
paired against those which may lose out.
7.
Top- and bottom-3 performing sectors have yield 33% long-short returns in 2015 on
significant rotations, meaning that investors need to embrace a nimble investment approach
to seek alpha. We are Overweight Tech, Telecom, Healthcare, and Property to start
the year, reflecting our New China bias and defensive orientation.
8.
For actionable single-stock ideas, we highlight 20 names (10 each for A and H) which
collectively express our macro, micro, and thematic views in the equity markets. On average,
they trade on 19x forward P/E and offer 21% 2015-2017 EPS CAGR, with 31% implied
upside to our analysts target prices.
These two pages summarize our key macro and market calls for next year, and our supporting
analyses are detailed in the following sections.
GS China Strategy team
2015 12 3
Our economists forecast Chinas real GDP to grow 6.4%, vs. 6.9% in 2015. The 50bps
slowdown in headline GDP growth would be the largest reduction since 2012. In Asia/EM,
they believe India (7.9% for FY16) will outgrow China in 2016, the first time since 1990, with
the Philippines not far behind (6.1%).
Indeed, they expect China to go through a bumpy deceleration process over the medium
to long term. Specifically, they project Chinas (potential) GDP growth to further slow to
around 5.8% for the next 5 years, and then to 4.8% in the decade thereafter, after factoring in
the potential productivity gains as a result of structural reforms but also the growth drag from
the significant debt buildup since the GFC.
Another notable feature of our envisaged growth profile is that macro cyclicality will likely
stay high, reflecting the fact that China is still in the process of optimizing conflicting
objectives (reform, rebalancing, reasonable growth) against a backdrop where global
demand is lackluster, and domestic macro imbalances remain significant.
Our intra-year growth expectations suggest that 1Q16 could be a tough quarter in terms of
sequential growth momentum, with qoq annualized GDP potentially growing at 5.8% (vs. 6.9%
in 4Q15), the lowest since 2009, resulting from the growth hit from anticorruption campaigns
on domestic demand during 1Q. The 1.1pp drop in sequential GDP growth in 1Q16 would also
be the largest quarterly deceleration since 2014.
While absolute growth rates could slow along a bumpy downtrend, we think it is important to
recognize that the growth drivers for China will be (have become) different; notably,
we see more contribution from consumption/services and less from investment and exports,
although the composition of the latter two is also changing. In fact, the share of tertiary sector
in GDP has surpassed secondary since 2012, with the gap further widening in recent years.
New growth drivers could potentially lead to higher growth quality than before, given a
more balanced and sustainable growth profile, and less social deadweight losses (e.g.
pollution, corruption) in the long run, in our view.
The ongoing macro rebalancing and widespread skepticism around official GDP statistics
suggest investors should look beyond the surface when formulating macro and market views
on China. Our economists have recently revamped their alterative growth measure on
ChinaCurrent Activity Indicator (CAI)and conclude that: (i) CAI implies weaker
growth than official GDP in recent periods; (ii) CAI can better reflect recent cyclical
fluctuations in the economy than does GDP data; (iii) the economy may be operating at
around 5% (qoq annualized) in October; and (iv) using CAI as our forecast reference, our
economic growth forecast would be around 5% for 2016.
The 5% growth rate is somewhat consistent with what the market is pricing in, because: a)
our regression analysis on a list of cyclical stocks that have historically correlated well with
CAI growth also suggests current market prices are already implying around 5% macro
growth; and b) our implied growth model, which is a variant of DDM, shows that prevailing
equity valuations are discounting around 0%/4% EPS 10-year CAGR cum banks and exbanks in the equity market.
2015 12 3
6.4
6.3
6.0
3.5
6.1
3.7
2.3
4.0
0.1
2.0
4.1
0.2
1.50
6.60
1.50
6.80
Avg: 10.4
10
Avg: 10.0
Avg: 8.1
Avg10-14: 8.6
Avg: 9.1
15-19E: 5.8
Avg: 7.2
20-24E: 5.1
25-30E: 4.5
2030
2025
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
1975
6.9
Asia ex Japan
6.1
World
3.1
China real GDP growth contribution (PPT)
Gross capital formation
2.6
Consumption
3.8
Net exports
0.5
China's interest and exchange rates
7D repo rate (%)
2.00
USD/CNY
6.41
12
1970
China
1965
GS Real GDP
US
Euro area
Japan
2017
Current
forecast
2.2
1.6
0.7
2020
(qoq ann %)
GS forecasts
8.3
China GDP
growth [RHS]
7.3
6.9
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
35%
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
41%
Dec-03
5.8
Dec-13
43%
6.3
50
Jun-13
45%
40%
6.0
5.8 6.0
Dec-12
51%
6.8
6.5
55
Tertiary industry
50%
7.8
65
60
Secondary industry
Dec-02
70
Dec-01
MSCI
China
75
8.8
Dec-00
MXCN
80
Source: Wind.
10
20
30
10
-10
-20
-30
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
-40
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
CAI (actual)
Jun-10
11
qoq (%)
China CAI
CAI
40
Basket avg return
(market implied*)
(Leading 2 mo) [RHS]
Real GDP
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
2015 12 3
Chinas total debt to GDP ratio could reach 237% by the end of 2015, and gradually
rise to 250% over the next 3 years before stabilizing, based on our economists projection.
Their work, which focuses on the dynamics between macro leverage and interest rate policy
of more than 55 countries in the past 50 years, also suggests that significant buildup in
debt (to GDP) has tended to result in a low absolute level of interest rates in
subsequent periods.
Nominal (5.7%) and real (6.3% based on our estimate) funding costs remain high in both
historical and global contexts.
China needs easy policy, monetarily and fiscally, to facilitate the implementation of
structural reforms, which tend to be growth-suppressive in the short term.
Our economists expect the PBoC to cut benchmark interest rates twice, most likely in
asymmetric form, and to cut RRR by 300bps to alleviate capital outflows, which could
amount to 2.4% of GDP in 2016 (US$270bn), derived from our economists explicit forecasts
on FX reserves (flat) and current account surplus (2.4%).
They also expect the 7D repo, an important short-term funding cost proxy for banks and the
economy, to go down to 1.5% by end-2016, from around 2.4% at present.
M2, TSF, and new loan growth (target) could be slightly higher than in 2015, while
specific monetary operations with targeted recipients, such as targeted RRR cuts, PSL, and
MLF will likely remain popular policy tools for the PBoC to manage liquidity conditions.
Further expansion of the LGFV debt swap program (now Rmb3.2tn, from Rmb1tn at
the beginning of 2015) is likely given the Rmb3tn of LGFV loans that will be due in 2016 as
estimated by our economists.
Underneath the broad infra investment category, soft infrastructure (hospitals, schools,
sewage system, and other environmental-related and public goods projects) is showing
moderately higher momentum vs. the traditional hard infrastructure, which typically focuses
on transportation infra investment including highways, bridges, and high-speed railways. We
think this trend is likely to extend as public goods related investment is regarded by
policymakers as one of the key levers to sustain and enhance growth going forward, as
stated in the 13th Five Year Blueprint (FYP). Also see page 31 for details.
2015 12 3
(%)
7
24
GS
forecast
22
20
3.6
18
16
14.5
14
1.5
Jul-16
M2 at end 2014
(% of GDP)
200%
180%
(US$tn)
20
18
M2 as % of GDP
160%
16
M2 (US tn)
140%
14
120%
12
100%
80%
10
12
10
60%
Oct-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
40%
6
US
EU
Japan
China
Exhibit 15: The size of the LGFV debt swap program has
expanded significantly since 2Q15
2013
Source: Wind.
2014
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Growth (%)
25%
20%
15%
Total growth: 8%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Oct-15
2012
Jul-15
2011
Apr-15
2010
Oct-14
-25
2009
Jan-15
-25
Jul-14
-20
Apr-14
-20
Oct-13
-15
On budget
Jan-14
-15
Jul-13
-10
Apr-13
-10
Oct-12
-5
Jan-13
-5
(bn RMB)
800
Local government bond (swap+new issurance, net)
700
LGFV
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
50
Infra (Transportation)
40
Infra (Water/Edu/Health/Sports)
30
20
10
0
Aug-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-13
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
-10
Source: CEIC.
2015 12 3
#3: RmbModerately weaker vs. the USD; hedging the tail risks
Our economists call for the Rmb to moderately weaken against the USD to 6.6 by end16, and 6.8 by end 17, implying 3%/6% nominal depreciation over the next 12/24 months.
The relative weakness of the Rmb vs. the USD is primarily a function of our bullish USD
forecasts, which point to 10% and 6% vs. the EUD and JPY in 2016. As such, they expect
the Rmb to remain firm on a trade-weighted basis.
As our economists have noted, their central case for Rmb exchange rates is subject to high
variances given the uncertainty revolving around (or the difficulty to forecast): (i) the relative
growth momentum and interest rate differentials between the US and China; (ii) the dynamic
of capital flows and the porosity of the capital account; and (iii) (market perception on) policy
efficacy and creditability of Chinese policymakers.
Specifically, they believe the outcome distribution of their forecasts could follow a tri-modal
Keep the Rmb stable against the USD, effectively maintaining the quasi-dollar
peg and strengthening the Rmb on a trade-weighted basis.
Allow the Rmb to moderately and gradually depreciate vs. the USD in order
to keep the currency at stable trade-weighted exchange rates.
These options have their pros and cons: Defending the currency vs. a strong USD
could boost market confidence, but runs the risk of draining FX reserves, which have
dropped 11% from the peak of US$4tn in June 2014. Opting for an orderly depreciation fits
the policy objective of introducing market forces to the FX pricing mechanism but could
intensify the expectation of a more significant depreciation down the road, thereby creating a
negative, self-reinforcing spiral. A one-off adjustment could quickly realign FX valuation with
fundamentals but could lead to excessive volatility in global markets, as evidenced in the
most recent episode (August 11) where the Rmb devaluation (reform) caused significant
shocks to asset classes globally. This is also consistent with our regional analysis, which
shows that the China-linked economies in the region, such as HK, Korea, and Taiwan, could
be negatively impacted by an abrupt Rmb devaluation. Overall, we believe PBoCs policy
choices are bounded by an impossible trinity dilemma, as flagged by our economists.
See Asia Economics Analyst: China: Diving deeper into the "impossible trinity", Sep 29.
In our piece: China Strategy: RMB depreciation: Mixed impact on Chinese equities, focus on
potential FX winners and losers, Aug 12, we laid out three key channels through which
FX could influence equity returns: 1) translation exposure; 2) transaction/economic
exposure; and 3) equity risk premium (ERP). In our FX base case, we see a moderate 3%
depreciation p.a. having only modest impact on ERP, meaning that the ramifications will
likely manifest primarily in the stock markets through the translation and
transaction/economic channels.
However, if a one-off adjustment were to materialize, the market reaction function could
be more forceful and dynamic. For reference, the last major, one-off RMB devaluation
episode was in 1994, when the currency was rebased from 5.8 to 8.7 vs. the USD on Jan 1,
1994 as the PBOC unified the dual-tracked official and swap center rates. Onshore and
offshore equities performed poorly after the devaluation, losing 10% to 20% 1 to 3
months after the event.
In any case, as featured in many of our economic and strategy outlook pieces globally, a
strong rally in USDCNY/H is a key risk to global asset prices in 2016 through the FX,
flows, sentiment, economic, and even political channels; hence, proactively hedging and
2015 12 3
trading this risk factor forms one of the key axes in our thematic thinking and implementation
strategy for 2016. See page 37 for more detailed discussion.
Exhibit 18: Rmb may weaken against a strong USD, but
should remain firm vis-a-vis other major currencies
CNY fixing (vs. USD)
GS Traded-Weighted Index
(index 2000 = 100)
CNY fixing
160
GS Trade-Weighted Index 17E: 6.8 (NDF: 6.8)
150
130
-50
120
-100
110
-150
3.2
100
-200
3.0
3.6
Oct-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
3.4
Aug-13
Dec-17
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
6.0
3.8
Apr-13
15E: 6.4
6.2
4.0
Jun-13
6.4
4.2
140
Feb-13
16E: 6.6
(NDF: 6.6)
(US$ tn)
50
Oct-12
6.6
100
Dec-12
6.8
(US$ bn)
150
Aug-12
7.0
Note: 12m and 24m CNY NDFs are as of Nov 24, 2015.
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 20: ...not only for China itself, but also for other
global asset markets
Bond
0
-0.5
-10
-15
-1
Commodity
-20
-25
Japan 10Y
Germany 10Y
UK 10Y
US 10Y
Iron Ore
LME Copper
Brent
CMX Gold
MSCI EM
Nikkei 225
Euro STOXX 50
S&P 500
NASDAQ
CSI 300
MSCI AC World
MSCI China
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
CN
HK
TH
TW
MY
KR
SG
IN
ID
PH
Note: Calculated using our 4-factor regression model. See Asia Pacific Strategy:
2016 Outlook: Muted returns, targeted opportunities, (Dec 4) for details.
Source: Bloomberg.
0.0%
Equalweighted
Market capweighted
Financials
0.1%
0.2%
Info Tech
0.1%
0.1%
Telecos
0.0%
0.0%
Health Care
0.0%
0.0%
Energy
1.1%
-0.1%
Cons Disc
-0.4%
-0.1%
Cons Stap
-0.2%
-0.3%
Materials
0.1%
-0.4%
Utilities
-0.7%
-1.0%
Industrials
-1.5%
-1.4%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.18%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.45%
Equal-weighted
Market capweighted
Offshore
Onshore
Global
1D
1W
1M
3M
6M
MXCN
-1%
-3%
-10%
-23%
-10%
HSCEI
0%
-5%
-10%
-22%
-22%
SHCOMP
0%
5%
-12%
-9%
-33%
SZCOMP
-2%
4%
-17%
-11%
-33%
MXAPJ
1%
-5%
0%
-14%
3%
MXEM
0%
2%
6%
0%
11%
MXWD
0%
1%
5%
-6%
2%
10
2015 12 3
What and how much has been done? This is always a contentious topic given the broad
rd
array of new initiatives laid out in the ambitious reform blueprint during the 3 Party Plenum
in Nov 2013, and the very diverse starting expectations among investors. Comparing the key
stated policy goals in the blueprint and some observable developments over the past 2 years,
we would argue that China has made significant strides in, for example, interest rate
liberalization, anticorruption, and a few social welfare-related areas. However, the
progress of difficult reforms including SOE, capital markets, and fiscal reforms looks
somewhat slower than what policymakers have been guiding, in our view.
What to expect from here? Our conversations with investors globally suggest market
expectations on difficult structural reforms are low (and rightly so), but on the flipside, this
implies that positive surprises will most likely come from these areas, especially with the
rd
anticorruption campaign going into its 3 year, which may result in better policy coordination
and incentive alignment between central and local governments. We highlight our reform
expectations as follows:
SOE
The second round of central-government-owned SOE reform may kick off in 2016
although the execution of the first batch (announced in July 2014) has been slow. We expect
relatively more corporate actions to take place at the local SOE level, extending the
momentum in 2015, where more than 76 corporate restructuring cases have been
announced.
In 2015, we observe at least 2 cases where SOEs have defaulted on their bonds, all in the
onshore market (there have been more defaults on bank loans, but these are difficult to
track). Our credit strategists expect more SOE defaults next year, especially in the
challenging commodity-related and industrial sectors. While SOE defaults arent currently
dealt with in a systematic approach (they are often subject to significant negotiation between
the SOEs, governments, and creditors), we believe allowing more SOEs to go under is
important to correct the moral hazard, and hence the capital misallocation, in the system.
Financial markets
The excessive volatility in the A-share markets has delayed a number of key financial
markets reforms, including the IPO registration system and the announcement and
implementation of the SZ-HK Connect, but we expect these will get back on track in 2016
as market volatility subsides.
Three new free-trade-zones (FTZ) were set up in 2015, in addition to Shanghai, which
launched in 2013. We expect further development in terms of capital account convertibility
and reduction of the negative lists in these FTZs.
Fiscal
LGFV debt swaps remain a major policy tool to improve transparency and accountability of
local government finances. We expect the total amount of LGFV debt swaps to reach
Rmb3.2tn in 2015, and expand to around Rmb6.2tn in 2016. However, there has been little
progress so far regarding the compilation of local governments balance sheets, and/or the
division of responsibility and spending rights between the central and local governments.
Some progress has been made on Business Tax (BT) and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
reform, but changing the tax regime in industries like construction, real estate, and financial
services has been difficult due to the uncertainty in deductible items, high cost of tax
11
2015 12 3
collection, and tax revenue sharing negotiations between the central and local governments.
We may see a further push on this front in 2016.
We also expect more tax reforms focusing on tax equalization (e.g. raising taxes for
product oil, tobacco, and spirits/wine but lowering taxes for discretionary and/or luxury items
such as cosmetics and jewelry) and using taxes to improve resources allocation (e.g.
changing resource tax on rare earth, tungsten and molybdenum from volume-based to valuebased). There could be further revamp of the personal income tax regime aiming to enhance
income accounting, in our view.
Social/welfare
The full abolishment of the one-child policy will likely be enacted post the National
Peoples Congress (NPC). We believe this could be followed by drug pricing reform, further
hospital industry liberalization, and promotion of mobile healthcare services.
Hukou reform progress has been trailing market expectations, but some lower-tier cities
have relaxed Hukou restrictions and launched residence permit schemes (similar to the
Hukou system but is linked to the residents employment). In contrast, tier-1 cities like Beijing
and Shanghai have tightened Hukou policies given strong population inflows.
We also expect further development on social security coverage for urban and rural
residents, with a focus on aligning social security systems between urban and rural
households, and achieving cross-region mobility and full-healthcare insurance coverage
(regardless of Hukou).
Despite falling energy intensity in the past years (partly contributed by falling commodity
prices), Chinas pollution conditions have deteriorated in some areas: air quality in
Northeast China, water contamination across the country, and land pollution (land
degradation, reduction of arable land) in some mining-oriented regions have worsened. We
expect more production capability shutdowns in polluted and energy-intensive industries
although the commitment levels could inversely correlate with the economic growth
momentum, in our view.
We expect the more supportive measures to facilitate the development of solar, wind, and
nuclear energy, and new energy vehicles, as stated in the 13th FYP.
Deregulation/anticorruption
In its 2015 working report, the government mentioned that 246 administrative approval
procedures were removed in the past year, and the number of newly registered companies
has grown by 46%. Cutting red tape is probably one of the key levers for China to increase
its macro efficiency and we expect the strong momentum to continue, consistent with the
negative list approach.
The government has stepped up its anticorruption campaign since the 18 CPC National
Congress, resulting in investigations of more than 100 officials at or above provincial and
ministerial level. The intensity of the campaign is likely to stay high as the Commission
for Discipline Inspection has recently sent delegates to almost all provinces and central
SOEs, and announced a new set of CPC intraparty supervisory disciplinary regulations to
govern the conduct of government officials and CPC members, although some sectors have
already seen more charges than others.
th
12
2015 12 3
rd
Exhibit 24: Since the 3 Plenum, more progress has been made on social reforms, anticorruption, and select financial
market reforms, while the development of SOE reform has lagged behind, in our view
Key reforms from 18th CPC Third Plenum decision document
SOE reform
Mixed ownership reform: introduce private capital into SOEs'
operation
State-owned assets mgmt: establish various state owned assets
mgmt companies
Management incentive reform: salary cuts on management;
employee Stock Ownership Plan
*
*
*
GS comments
Progress
CNR and CSR merged, but no salient efficiency improving actions are observed, i.e. layoffs.
Progress of mixed ownership reforms on pilot central SOEs is slow (below expectation).
Reforms on SDIC and COFCO, as the pilot state-owned assets mgmt companies are slow, with only
small-scale restructuring.
Compensation of senior managers has been limited. Several SOEs launched the Employee Stock
Ownership Plans.
Slow progress
Private capital has been allowed to enter the retail business of Sinopec, but subsequent progress
has been slow.
Slow progress
Financial/Fiscal reform
Speed up interest rate deregulation/Deposit insurance
Market-pricing of CNY / treasury yield
Speed up capital account convertibility
Registration system for IPO
Budget system reform: more longer term, more accountability and
transparency
Tax: simplify VAT; consumption tax reform; property tax, resource
taxes, environmental protection taxes
****
**
**
*
*
**
Progressing rapidly. The control of deposit and lending rates will be gradually relaxed.
SDR inclusion; fluctuation range of RMB were expanded; China's interest rate corridor framework
More progress in SH FTZ; Currency swap
Slightly below expectation; may launch in Mar 2016;
Enhancing supervision on local government debt. LGFV debt swaps alleviate burden for local
governments.
Progress to replace business taxes with value-added taxed is below expectation, especially for
financial industries, etc. Progressing on resource tax and consumption tax reforms; progressing
slowly on property tax reform.
Slow progress
Slow progress
*****
Abolishment of one-child policy is in line with expectation, and will implement in 2016.
Slow progress
Slow progress
Some regions gradually replace Hukou with resident permits, however, Tier 1 cities, such as Beijing,
Shanghai, have stricter household registration policies.
**
**
95% of population is now covered by social insurance, and expected to expand. Investment range of
pension funds will be expanded.
**
Slow progress
Price control is relaxed for some medicines. Fiscal expenditure on public hospital has increased.
More progress is needed for the development of private hospital, mobile hospital, and reform on
subsidiary system of public hospitals.
**
Reform on the resource price has achieved some progress (more market-oriented), and may
accelerate in 2016.
**
Shanghai FTA: development on tariff policies, administrative convenience, and potential open-up of
capital accounts (i.e. investment overseas); 3 new FTAs are set up in Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong.
In the new Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment, industrial sectors restricted to foreign
investors have been reduced from 79 to 38, a negative list approach has been adopted, and foreign
ownership limitations are further relaxed.
**
Mentioned in the 2015 government work report, 246 administrative approval items were removed in
the past year, and the number of newly registered companies has grown by 45.9%.
***
A new version of the CPC intraparty supervisory disciplinary regulations to restrict the conduct of
government officials has been announced. The government has stepped up its anti-corruption
campaign, resulting in investigations on c. 100 officials at or above provincial and ministerial level.
The State Council has organized several supervisory trips to instruct local governments to maintain
economic growth, but an evaluation system on local governments have not been established.
Market economy/deregulation
Anti-corruption/deregulation
Streamline administrative processes: withdraw administrative
approvals, tackle overcapacity
Develop supervision system of the Party
Revise econ KPI for gov't officials: include environment / debt /
overcapacity / innovation etc.
*
**
**
*
Chinas pollution has probably deteriorated, incl. air pollution in North China, water pollution
nationwide, and land contamination in some mining areas.
Some high-pollution and energy-intensive companies have been shut down in some areas, i.e.
North China, but progress is slow with pressure to maintain economic growth.
Policies to encourage development of solar power, wind power and nuclear power have been
issued. Development of new energy vehicles is promoted.
Without major reforms on culture, some changes have been initiated with a bottom-up approach,
i.e. mergers of media companies, import of movies, etc.
* Red starts indicate the progress estimated. 0 - almost no progress, 5 - almost achieved, and the rest follow the order.
13
2015 12 3
9.8%
8.8%
7.7%
5.7%
9M2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
Default
Amount
(US$ mn)
300
183
400
1050
900
500
400
288
Onshore defaults
0%
2004
SOE
(Y/N)
Offshore defaults
11.7%
2.4%
2%
Issuer Name
(Rmb mn)
1000
480
1500
590
1000
2000
Financial markets
Fiscal
Social/welfare
Environmental
protection and new
energy
Deregulation/
anticorruption
14
2015 12 3
The Chinese property market is always in the spotlight, not because of its weight in the equity
market (5%/9% in A/H), but its importance to economic growth in China. Our economists
estimate that the property sector and its related value-chain demand have on average
contributed 1pp of GDP growth for the past 3 years.
tier 1 cities have risen 67%, while the prices for tier 2 and tier 3 are essentially flat.
In our view, the divergent property prices are attributable to the favorable supply/demand
balance in higher-tier cities, as evidenced by the faster inventory destocking cycle there.
While tier 1 cities are more economically important (12% of GDP), lower tiered cities carry
higher weight in terms of growth contribution as they in aggregate represent 89% of
the total property FAI in the past 5 years.
In 2016, our economists and property research team expect a moderate pickup in
property-related investment as well as further stabilization in property sales (GS
forecast 6% yoy growth in 2016 vs. 15% in 2015 ytd) for the following reasons:
Land transactions, which have historically led FAI by 6 months, have begun to
increase; and
On the demand side, our envisaged (further) monetary easing and potentially
more relaxation of housing restrictions (e.g. lower down-payment) should buttress
st
the robust underlying housing demand (1 time homebuyer), which roughly
accounts for around 70% of the transactions over the past few years.
While we forecast a rebound in real estate activities in 2016, we dont think it will translate
into a sustainable resurgence of commodity demand, particularly the capex commodities,
as: a) we forecast manufacturing FAI, which represents around 40% of total FAI, to further
slow in 2016 given the weak exports, overcapacity, and a strong deflationary trend and, b) as
China gets richer, the demand for capex commodities should naturally drop, while opex
demand growth only begins to peak at higher income levels.
One of the prevalent concerns from investors on Chinas macro sustainability is that property
inventory data (based on select cities where quality of statistics is more reliable) doesnt show a
complete picture of the nationwide housing market, and that there are many ghost cities in
China which pose systemic risk to the banking system. We fully acknowledge these risks but
think the concern is somewhat overstated because:
1.
2.
While some of these ghost cities will likely remain haunted in the foreseeable
future because of continued negative population flows, we believe their systemic
implications should be contained given the lower nominal property values in
these less developed areas vs. higher tier cities.
15
2015 12 3
20,000
Tier 1 cities
25
20
15
15,000
10
+105%
+72%
10,000
Note: 1. Inventory months are calculated as sellable GFA divided by 12-m rolling GFA
sold. 2.Tier 1 cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Selective tier 2
cities include Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao. Selective tier 3 cities
include Dongguan, Hefei, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Bengbu, Fuzhou and Huizhou.
Source: CREIS
Property FAI
35
200
150
25
100
15
50
-5
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
-50
Kerosene
Gasoline
Zinc***
Soybean*
Aluminium
Oil (total)
Coffee*
Nickel**
Corn*
Naptha
Diesel
Sugar*
Copper
Cotton*
Wheat*
Iron Ore
Cement
Met Coal
Thermal Coal
Steel
CapEx
commodities
(%yoy, 3mma)
250
OpEx
commoditie
(%yoy, 3mma)
45
Sep-15
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Note: Tier 1 cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Tier 2 cities
include Tianjin, Nanjing, Chengdu, Changsha, Sanya, Suzhou, Qingdao, Xiamen, Dalian,
Chongqing, and Xi'an. Tier 3 cities include Fuzhou, Nanchang, Dongguan, Huizhou,
Wenzhou, Baotou, Ningbo, Shantou and Bengbu.
May-10
5,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
*Est. 2015 annual consumption growth (no monthly data) ; **calculated from apparent Stainless
Steel demand; ***calculated from zinc galv. production
Erenhot
Qinzhou
lhasa
Jiayuguan
Jinggangshan
Weihai
Xilinhot
Jiaxing
Shizuishan
Sanya
Jinchang
Huizhou
Yicheng
Wuzhong
Changshu
Yiwu
Chuzhou
Total
Ghost
city
index
2013 GDP
(bn RMB)
0.07
0.26
0.28
0.32
0.33
0.36
0.37
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.43
0.44
8
75
8
23
5
255
21
315
45
37
25
268
23
35
198
88
109
As % of
China total
GDP
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
2.6%
No. 18-34
Fangchenggang
Chengde
Zhongshan
Quzhou
Lishui
YiChun
Shaoxing
Daqing
Maoming
Zhoukou
Kelamayi
Xianning
Ordos
Zhaoqing
Jiuquan
Guyuan
Zhangye
Ghost
city
index
2013 GDP
(bn RMB)
0.44
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.46
0.46
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
53
127
264
106
98
28
397
418
216
179
85
87
396
166
64
18
34
As % of
China total
GDP
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
4.7%
Note: Ghost cities are defined as cities with the ratio of the current population divided
by the potential population supported by finished construction below 0.5. According to
the Ministry of Housing standard, each developed square kilometer can accommodate
10,000 residents. The list is created by China Investment Network, a business
newspaper.
Source: Wind.
(Rmb k)
110
35%
100
30%
90
80
25%
70
20%
60
15%
50
10%
40
5%
30
0%
20
Hainan
Guizhou
Shaanxi
Shanxi
Xinjiang
Yunnan
Qinghai
Tibet
Anhui
Sichuan
Henan
Hubei
Gansu
Inner Mongolia
Ningxia
Fujian
Hebei
Guangxi
Chongqing
Hunan
Liaoning
Shandong
Jilin
Jiangsu
Jiangxi
Tianjin
Heilongjiang
Zhejiang
Guangdong
Beijing
Shanghai
No. 1-17
Source: Wind.
16
2015 12 3
Aggregating our macro expectations, earnings forecasts, equity valuation assessments, and
views on event/ liquidity risks, we conclude that the risk/reward for Chinese equities no
longer stands favorably relative to their regional alternatives.
Furthermore, we see a couple of cyclical macro and liquidity headwinds in 1Q16 which
may go against market performance, notably a seasonal growth deceleration driven by policy
and anticorruption, A-share IPO resumption, and expiry of selling restrictions for major
shareholders in A shares. See pages 27-28 for more discussion about liquidity risks.
While we no longer explicitly forecast price returns for HSCEI and HSI (as we dont view
them as the most sensible proxies for their underlying economies), our market/sector-based,
return-mapping analysis implies a 12m level of 10500 and 24000 for HSCEI and HSI,
translating into 6% and 7% potential upside. See the next section for details about our
earnings forecasts and valuation assumptions.
In a world where aggregate index returns are subdued and growth is in short supply, we
continue to advocate a two-pronged approach to position in the market:
1.
Building core holdings around New China stocks as they have proven to be
alpha generating over the past few years and will likely further deliver stronger organic
earnings growth over Old China in the years to come.
2.
Tactically engaging in Old China, especially at times when growth faces cyclical
threats, policy loosening signal is strong, market confidence is fragile, profitability
expectations are low, and cyclical recovery stories arent expensively priced.
These top-down views drive our thematic thinking and sector recommendations summarized in
later sections.
Exhibit 34: Background: China H has been operating under a fat trading range since 2010
Average chg or peak/trough levels
HSCEI Index Level
fPE: 10.0X
# of obs. # of days Change
fPE
tPB
RSI
15000
14000
13000
fPE: 10.7X
+14%
fPE: 10.0X
143
135
85
8.9x
6.4x
7.2x
1.5x
1.1x
1.0x
fPE: 7.8X
+35%
+46%
32%
-27%
9%
+30%
fPE: 7.3X
+24%
-24%
10000
-41%
8000
fPE: 7.1X
fPE: 6.4X
fPE: 7.2X
-11%
fPE: 6.5X
-20%
-27%
9000
70
25
42
fPE: 9.2X
fPE: 8.7X
12000
11000
6
6
-
Up to peak
Down to trough
Current (Up)
+45%
-38%
fPE: 6.2X
+9%
fPE: 6.6X
fPE: 5.9X
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
7000
17
2015 12 3
10
130
MXCN index
97
120
MXAPJ index
99
110
101
100
103
90
8
6
4
FCI means tightening
financial conditions
105
80
Aug-15
May-15
Nov-13
Feb-15
70
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Nov-14
MXEF index
Aug-14
12
95
May-14
14
China CAI
Feb-14
China CAI
Source: Bloomberg.
Index
Target
P/E (X)
Index
target
(12m)
Overweight
India
Philippines
Indonesia
NIFTY
PCOMP
JCI
16.5
17.5
14.0
9,000
7,900
5,100
Marketweight
China
Singapore
Taiwan
Australia
MXCN
FSSTI
TWSE
AS51
10.8
12.0
12.0
15.5
65.2
3,100
9,000
5,600
7
8
6
6
9
7
6
6
Underweight
Korea
KOSPI
Hong Kong
MXHK
Malaysia
FBMKLCI
Thailand
SET
10.0
14.0
14.0
12.0
2,170
13,100
1,620
1,330
7
-2
-4
-2
-1
0
-8
-9
11.8
425
Allocation
Market
7%
6%
4Q
Source: Bloomberg.
Exhibit 39: Our sum-of-the-part analysis suggests 7% and 10% potential price returns for A and H shares in 2016
Sector
Index
weight
EPSg (GS)
16E
17E
MXCN sectors (cum ADRs)
18%
0%
-10%
Banks
6%
-20%
111%
Energy
27%
35%
28%
IT
Others
48%
6%
5%
MXCN
100%
5%
7%
Index
weight
EPSg (GS)
16E
17E
2%
13%
35%
7%
8%
46%
32%
13%
4.9
13.5
28.4
11.5
5
7
28
12
-8%
13%
28%
9%
CSI300
Banks
Energy
IT
Others
20%
3%
6%
71%
0%
9%
26%
11%
-10%
15%
24%
12%
6%
23%
30%
12%
8%
10%
25%
14%
6.4
19.6
31.8
16.8
7
18
32
18
-4%
6%
24%
20%
6%
12%
10.9
CSI300
100%
7%
4%
10%
11%
12.6
61
65
7%
10.8
Sector
18
2015 12 3
Earnings growth for offshore equities has been lackluster since 2011. In fact,
without the contribution from newly added ADRs, earnings growth for MSCI China would
have been -1% in 2015, the first negative growth print since 2008.
For 2016 and 2017, we forecast MXCN EPS (cum ADRs) to grow 5% and 8%
respectively, based on our top-down, regression-based models and our analysts bottom-up
earnings expectations on certain sectors which are subject to supply/demand shocks (e.g
Tech and Energy). The key positive growth contributors are Tech (31% EPS CAGR for 15-17)
and select deep cyclicals which have had consecutive years of net losses.
Profitability (net margin) and top-line growth for most Old China sectors are at the low end of
their respective historical ranges, but the simple notion of profit normalization may not be
applicable to many of these sectors in a new normal growth era where the underlying
demand profile is structurally evolving.
We forecast a similar growth profile for the onshore market in 2016, but expect earnings to
further decelerate into 2017 because of a smaller earnings uplift from Energy and lower
index weights from Tech software vs. the MSCI China index.
Headline index, ex-banks, average, and median PEs are close to their mid-cycle
averages for H shares (including ADRs) but moderately expensive relative to
ranges for A shares, especially for small-mid caps, which have rallied 80% ytd (ChiNext)
and are currently priced at 45x forward earnings, 1.0 s.d. While the risk of collateral damage
to the broader market should have declined alongside margin deleveraging (now at
Rmb1.2tn, 2.2% of market cap), high valuations and the speculative nature of small/mid caps
are major sources of concern to our A-share market view.
Absolute valuations carry low analytical and forecasting value as macro conditions change.
Our top-down valuation analysis, which simplifies absolute valuations into a growth (CAI) and
rates (7D repo) component, suggests that both the offshore and onshore markets are
fairly valued. Also, our Dividend-Discount-Model (DDM) points to only moderate upside for
both markets. In other words, we dont see significant room for valuation multiple expansion
at the aggregate index level given our macro expectations and earnings forecasts, although
equities look attractively priced relative to competing asset classes including fixed income
and property.
40%
CSI300
30%
20%
10%
7% 7%
0%
5% 4%
-10%
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-20%
CSI300
2016E 2017E
GS
GS
0%
-10%
9%
15%
26%
24%
11%
12%
7%
4%
10%
11%
19
2015 12 3
2014 ROE
Old China
100
20%
15%
Utilities
Telcos
Healthcare
Industrials
I.T.
Financials
Cons Disc
95
10%
90
85
MXCN
Energy: 51
80
Materials: 65
Cons Stap
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
75
Jan-15
0%
Dec-14
5%
Jul-15
Dec-14
May-14
Oct-13
Mar-13
Aug-12
Jan-12
Jul-08
Feb-09
Dec-07
Oct-06
May-07
Mar-06
Jan-05
Aug-05
Jul-15
Dec-14
Oct-13
May-14
Mar-13
Jan-12
Aug-12
Jun-11
Apr-10
Nov-10
Feb-09
Sep-09
Jul-08
Dec-07
15
Oct-06
10
May-07
25
Mar-06
15
Jan-05
35
Aug-05
20
Jun-11
45
Apr-10
25
55
Nov-10
Sep-09
30
Yield (%)
14%
Fitted
12%
13
10%
12
8%
11
9.8X
10
Earnings (H):
10.9% +0.6sd
Earnings (A):
7.6% -0.4sd
6%
4%
9.2X
2%
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Note: Based on a 2-factor regression model using China growth (CAI) and
liquidity (7-day repo rate) to model the headline PE index level.
Jan-08
0%
Bond:
3.2% -1.1sd
Dividend (H):
3.0% +0.5sd
Rental: 2.1%
-1.1sd
20
2015 12 3
As discussed in section 2, the macro liquidity backdrop has been conducive to asset
price performance so far in 2015 and will likely remain so in 2016 given the conventional
easing (benchmark rates, RRR, 7D repo cuts) and other monetary operations (e.g. MLF, SLF)
that we expect to be conducted next year.
In the equity market, our Dividend Discount Model (DDM) suggests every 50bps reduction
of Cost of Equity (COE) could translate into 10% to 15% valuation upside for both
H and A shares, everything else being equal.
The key risks to this view are: a) inefficient monetary transmission mechanism whereby
macro easing is ineffective in reducing COE; and b) an abrupt Rmb devaluation, which, if
mishandled, could lead to sizable capital outflows and a sharp tightening of financial
conditions.
Micro flows: Secular asset reallocation flows offset by higher equity supply and
lower leverage
Specifically, we forecast total new equity issuance amounting to Rmb1.2tn (IPO plus
follow-ons), representing 2.2%/5.6% of the current total/free-float market cap in A shares, up
from 2.0%/4.9% from 2015, during which the IPO window was shut for 4 months. See China
A-share 2016 Outlook: Structural opportunities, but higher risks.
As flagged in our recent reports, we estimate that the confirmed inclusion of 14 ADRs to
MSCI benchmarks could usher in as much as US$94bn of net buying for these names,
averaging 29 days of their ADVT, assuming US$1.7tn of assets (85% active, 15% passive) is
tracking the MSCI EM index. See China Musings: 14 ADRs added to the MSCI universe; a
'New' chapter for Chinese equity indexes, Nov 13.
For A shares, our base case still calls for MSCI making the announcement of including A
shares in its benchmarks in May 2016, with actual implementation starting mid-2017. In this
case, we estimate the initial inclusion could translate into US$40bn of active and passive
buying for A shares assuming a 10% inclusion factor (IF). Looking further out, the
inclusion factor for A shares should rise as the domestic equity market continues to liberalize.
Using Korea and Taiwan as a template, we expect it could take as long as 9 years to get A
21
2015 12 3
shares completely included in the benchmarks (i.e. IF to 100%), translating into US$332bn
of net inflows to A shares over the next decade, based on current prices.
Exhibit 48: We estimate that every 50bps reduction of
COE could boost equity valuations by around 13% to 15%
80% 71%
60%
18%
90%
26%
CSI300
40%
32%
18%
70%
12%
6%
2%
1%
0%
-4%
-4%
-9%
-20%
-14%
-19%
-23%
-8% -13%
-26% -30%
-33% -36%
-39%
-40%
5%
5%
60%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
Cost of equity (COE)
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
35%
17%
33%
18%
40%
3%
6%
30%
8%
13%
36%
50%
9%
2%
6%
Others
Other
Securities
17%
Insurance &
Pension
Mutual Fund
1%
Equity
18%
34%
Currency &
equivalent
6%
18%
77%
60%
20%
-60%
10%
7%
4%
36%
80%
25%
15%
8%
100%
MXCN
50%
40%
20%
60%
49%
41%
35%
Real estate
10%
18%
0%
CN
JP
UK
KR
AU
TW
US
(Rmb bn)
41%
40%
30%
27%
18%
600
18%
12%
1,000
2016E
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-200
2007
2016E
2014
2013
2,000
200
3% 5%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2002
1%
2004
6%
2003
11%
3,000
400
2006
16%
2005
24%
5,000
4,000
800
25%
2015E
21%
6,000
1,000
29%
28%
26%
1,200
31%
2004
31%
1,400
38%
34%
36%
Rights offering
Secondary equity offering Rmb
IPO
1.2 tn
CSI300 Index (RHS)
Source: WDI, Penn World Table, IMFWEO, BIS, Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research.
China
US
Taiwan
Korea
Japan
4.0%
2015
2014
0.0%
2013
0.5%
0.0%
2012
0.5%
2011
1.0%
2010
1.5%
1.0%
2009
1.5%
2008
2.0%
2007
2.0%
2006
2.5%
2005
3.0%
2.5%
2004
3.0%
2003
3.5%
2002
3.5%
A-share
inclusion
factor
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MSCI EM index
China's
A-share
ADR net
A-share
ADR
weight
net inflow
inflow
weight
weight
(H+ADR+A)
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
31%
2%
40
5.5%
94
32%
5%
79
5.4%
92
34%
7%
115
5.3%
89
35%
9%
150
5.1%
87
37%
11%
184
5.0%
86
38%
13%
216
4.9%
84
39%
15%
247
4.8%
82
40%
16%
276
4.7%
80
42%
18%
305
4.6%
79
43%
20%
332
4.5%
77
22
2015 12 3
MSCI China is down 9% over the past 20 quarters (5 years), but the best- and worstperforming sectors have generated 264% long-short alpha (29% return CAGR). In a
less radical example, the top- and bottom-3 sectors (average returns) have resulted in 139%
and 33% spread in the past 5 years and 12 months.
Significant return divergence aside, sector leadership rotation has also been high on
average, except for Tech, the 11 key sectors have had roughly an equal chance of being in
out- and underperforming bucket over the past 5 years.
Our ytd sector recommendations, on an equal-weighted basis, have resulted in 26% longshort returns, vs. -8% for MSCI China.
Overweights
Tech/Internet (Stay OW): We believe this remains one of the most exciting and investable
growth stories in the New China space, and in the Chinese equity universe more broadly.
Intensifying competition may pressure margins but we believe large-scaled portal
operators/service providers with sticky customer bases will prevail. Post the inclusion of
ADRs, the Tech sector will account for 27% of MSCI China by mid next year (from 14%),
thereby ushering in meaningful active and passive inflows to the sector, especially given
investors significant underweight position in the sector on a pro-forma basis.
Telecoms (Upgrade to OW): The sector outperformed in 1Q15 when macro growth
decelerated given its defensive nature, and we expect this pattern to repeat in 1Q16. 4G
capex cycle growth may have already peaked, 4G adoption may accelerate and improve
data APRU/revenue, tower sharing could enhance long-term sector investment rationality,
and potential corporate restructuring could boost valuation, in our view.
Healthcare (Upgrade to OW): Another key constituent in our New China universe. We
believe the structural growth story remains intact and our analysts expect the healthcare
companies under our coverage to deliver a stable mid-to-high-teen revenue and earnings
growth in 2016. This also fits into our defensive orientation to start the year given its relatively
low market beta.
Property (Stay OW): Our envisaged sector recovery underpins our continuing positive view
on the sector (we upgraded the sector to OW in March 2015). A tough cyclical growth path in
1Q could be a headwind to the sector but we would accumulate on any major weakness.
Marketweights
Energy (Upgrade to MW): While we expect oil and coal prices to stay low for longer (-5% and
-8% upside on our commodity teams 15/16 average price forecasts), and earnings to further
drop in 2016 (-20% by GS forecast), we think the combination of a close to 30% drop ytd (and
46% drop from the 2014 peak) and record-low P/B ratios (0.7x P/B,
-1.8x s.d.) suggests that a good deal of the downside risk in commodity prices is already
priced in. Additionally, earnings growth could stage a meaningful rebound in 2017 alongside a
normalization in oil prices (GS forecast average Brent price to reach US$65/bbl in 2017),
which the market will start to discount in 2H16, in our view. A more mature cycle in terms of
the anticorruption charges in the Energy sector may also lead to better implementation of
SOE reform, everything else being equal.
23
2015 12 3
term/protection products from both regulators and industry players. However, our restrained
near-term view on A shares leads us to dial back our optimism on Chinese insurers given
their direct exposure in the A-share market.
Utilities (Downgrade to MW): Although the key positive arguments regarding falling coal
costs, improving capex discipline, strong free cash flow (and dividend) growth potential, and
asset injection optionality remain largely intact, lingering concerns about tariff cuts could limit
the potential for sector re-rating.
Underweights
Banks (Downgrade to UW): While the sector is trading at record-low valuations (PE, PB,
and DY), slowing macro growth and further easing of monetary policy will likely pressure topline growth, net interest margin (NIM), and provisioning charges. I/B/E/S consensus forecast
of 5% EPS CAGR for 2015-2017 looks optimistic to us against a challenging operating
backdrop. Current bank share prices are implying around 7% NPL ratios, but we dont
foresee a sustainable re-rating for the sector until more decisive reforms are taken and more
NPLs are recognized, which will likely trigger more short-term pain (earnings and sentimentwise) before fundamental overhangs can be removed.
Discretionary (Stay UW): The addition of ADRs makes this the 4th largest sector in MSCI
China by market cap (from 5% to 8%), and hence the sector could face upside liquidity risks
given on fund inflows. However, we see the tradeoff between growth and valuation as fair
given its above-mid-cycle PE, and the sector has rallied 22% on a cum-ADRs basis. We
prefer Tech to express our positive New China bias.
Materials (Stay UW): We see limited fundamental reasons to re-engage now given our
near-term and longer-term macro expectations despite the sectors low valuations (0.8x P/B,
-1.2x s.d.). The sector now only represents 1% of MSCI China index cap on a pro-forma
basis.
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Cyclicals
Consumer Discretionary
-3%
7%
Information Technology
11%
4%
Industrials
-5%
Comdy
Exhibit 54: Significant sector rotations in the fat and flat trading range
Energy
8%
Materials
Banks
Defensives
Financials
2012
Q2
Q3
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q4
Q1
-29%
5%
10%
-17%
-24%
-2%
32%
-3%
1%
22%
-10%
-7%
12%
-1%
0%
16%
-11%
-35%
14%
11%
-9%
-2%
18%
-4%
-4%
-20%
4%
10%
-11%
5%
11%
-7%
8%
-5%
-41%
6%
10%
-17%
7%
15%
-8%
-23%
11%
8%
-11%
-33%
19%
8%
-11%
1%
20%
1%
-13%
11%
Real Estate
5%
-3%
-39%
20%
15%
13%
1%
24%
-7%
-6%
9%
Insurance
-8%
-3%
-35%
7%
7%
0%
4%
14%
-14%
-9%
Diversified Financials
-1%
-15%
-43%
43%
-6%
-10%
-13%
46%
-17%
Telecom Services
-5%
-6%
-11%
3%
19%
-19%
0%
16%
2%
Consumer Staples
-6%
10%
-21%
6%
6%
-8%
6%
2%
-1%
Utilities
8%
-3%
-14%
14%
7%
5%
8%
13%
22%
-6%
Health Care
-2%
-8%
-23%
-13%
16%
-6%
19%
-6%
4%
-5%
MSCI China
3%
-4%
-26%
8%
10%
-8%
4%
13%
-4%
-9%
11%
2014
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
-6%
2%
0%
-6%
19%
-5%
-21%
10%
-25%
7%
10%
-1%
-3%
32%
0%
-22%
19%
203%
Since
2011
Q4
Q1
18%
0%
31%
18%
-9%
11%
10%
-7%
0%
0%
14%
8%
9%
-19%
3%
-19%
-19%
11%
-1%
-8%
11%
-2%
-14%
-1%
1%
-32%
7%
-50%
6%
0%
-8%
0%
8%
7%
7%
-27%
-4%
-52%
0%
-7%
4%
-3%
22%
0%
10%
-29%
5%
-17%
-7%
-7%
-11%
1%
13%
5%
4%
-21%
19%
6%
10%
17%
-9%
-4%
4%
36%
10%
7%
-23%
7%
-5%
-14%
12%
26%
-23%
2%
6%
41%
-1%
7%
-41%
21%
-35%
-9%
19%
14%
-7%
20%
2%
-10%
10%
-2%
-22%
20%
19%
3%
6%
2%
-7%
-4%
-9%
-3%
0%
5%
-17%
0%
-30%
2%
17%
-2%
10%
-6%
1%
1%
8%
-15%
-6%
69%
0%
24%
2%
-5%
15%
-5%
3%
-5%
-14%
15%
-8%
4%
-6%
3%
0%
7%
8%
4%
-23%
7%
-8%
24
2015 12 3
pp
50
12
# of top 3
10
40
# of bottom 3
30
5
4
Alpha ratio = 1
2015
Energy
Banks
Div Fins
Property
Materials
2014
Cons Stap
2013
Industrials
2012
Insurance
2011
Cons Disc
Telecom
Info Tech
10
Utilities
20
HealthCare
Avg: 27 pp
Exhibit 57: We are OW Tech, Telecoms, Healthcare, and Property to start the year
GS
Strategy
View
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Stap.
Energy
Financials
Property
Banks
Insurance/Other fins.
Health care
Industrials
Information technology
Materials
Telecoms
Utilities
MSCI China (MXCN)
UW
MW
MW
MW
OW
UW
MW
OW
MW
OW
UW
OW
MW
Growth
Liquidity
CAI
GLI
M2
FCI
Index
YTD
YTD
Wgt
Return
Return
(%, pro
(%, pro
(%)
forma)
forma)
6%
3%
7%
37%
6%
19%
12%
2%
8%
23%
1%
9%
4%
2%
-12%
-27%
-11%
11%
-17%
-9%
10%
3%
30%
-26%
-2%
-12%
-8%
14%
-12%
-27%
-11%
11%
-17%
-9%
10%
3%
11%
-26%
-2%
-12%
-5%
16E
P/E
(X)
17E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/B
(X)
14.3
19.0
13.3
6.4
7.7
4.9
10.9
18.5
10.2
27.1
12.2
12.6
9.6
10.2
12.5
17.1
9.1
5.9
6.8
4.5
9.8
15.5
9.1
20.7
9.8
11.6
8.9
8.9
2.2
2.8
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.7
1.4
2.7
1.2
5.2
0.8
1.3
1.3
1.3
15-17E EM Fund
EPS
OW/UW
CAGR
(pro
(%)
forma)
16%
11%
29%
6%
13%
5%
4%
19%
11%
33%
20%
8%
5%
10%
UW
MW
UW
UW
UW
UW
UW
MW
UW
UW
MW
UW
UW
UW
Z scores
f-P/E
t-P/B
0.7
(1.9)
1.8
(0.7)
(0.2)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(0.3)
(0.6)
1.0
0.5
0.3
(1.7)
0.3
(0.3)
(1.9)
(1.8)
(1.1)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(1.0)
0.8
(0.0)
(0.3)
(1.3)
(1.2)
(0.7)
(0.9)
Note (1): Valuation z scores are compared with the past 5-year monthly history; Lower z scores mean more favorably priced fundamentals and valuations.
Note (2): Ytd return is based on bottom-up calculation; Fundamentals and valuations are based on I/B/E/S consensus.
Note (3): Correlation with macro factors is calculated since 2010. "" indicates sectors ranked in the top 33%ile (i.e. more correlated), and "" indicates sectors
ranked between 33%ile and 66%ile
Note (4): Pricing as of Dec 1, 2015.
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, MSCI, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
25
2015 12 3
Country
Nov
17 Dec
Dec
Dec
China
US
EU
China
2016
2016
2016
1Q
China
China
China
China
1H
Feb - Apr
Mar
May - Jun
May
May
Aug - Sep
Oct - Nov
Oct
Oct
8 Nov
China
China
China
United States
late 2017
China
China
China
China
26
2015 12 3
Our economists expect the Fed to start normalizing monetary policy in its Dec 2015
meeting, raising the Fed Fund rate by 25bps, the first policy rate increase since 2005. After
the December move, they also expect the Fed to raise rates 4 times (once every quarter),
100bps in total, vs. market consensus of 70bps during 2016.
Historically, Chinese equities have exhibited relatively low sensitivity to the Fed
monetary cycle largely due to the fact that: (i) Rmb has been on a steady appreciating path,
strengthening 30% and 39% on a nominal and trade-weighted basis over the past decade; (ii)
offshore equities are mostly denominated in HKD (or USD in case of ADRs), which is pegged
to the USD; and, (iii) capital outflows hadnt been a major source of macro/liquidity concern
until recent quarters.
However, given the uncertainty and fragility of the quasi-peg vis-a-vis a strong USD, we
believe the speed and magnitude at which US rates could be rising are consequential to
equity returns. Hence, hedging a significant Rmb devaluation risk appears sensible
to us.
Forward implied
2.8
2.4
2.4
-0.5
1.6
1.6
-1
1.2
1.2
-1.5
0.8
-2
*As of Nov 27
Nov-15
3M 6M 12M
Aug-15
-2.5
Apr-15
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
0
Jun-16
0
Mar-16
0.4
Dec-15
0.4
Jan-15
100
bps
Jun-14
0.8
Oct-14
Note: Based on a 4-factor model, using monthly data in the past 10 years
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
On November 6, the CSRC announced that the IPO window could re-open after being
frozen since early July. 28 companies are currently in the pipeline, with an estimated
aggregate issuance size of Rmb10bn (US$1.6bn). We think this is an encouraging move
in the sense that: (a) capital raising is an integral part of a well-functioned stock market and
primary issuance cant be halted indefinitely; and (b) it sends a positive signal to the market
that policymakers regard the current market supply/demand as balanced and the period of
excessive volatility may be over. However, from a tactical standpoint, history suggests the Ashare market tends to trade sideways to slightly down shortly after resumptions
became effective.
On July 8, the CSRC banned company shareholders with stakes of more than 5%
from selling for the next 6 months, as a part of the regulators effort to provide an
external stabilizer (reduce supply) to smooth out volatility during the sharp market correction
in July. These bans will expire in 1Q16 and we estimate that major individual
shareholders with over Rmb1.2tn of stock holdings could be incentivized to sell,
creating another liquidity risk to the market.
27
2015 12 3
Besides these short-term liquidity hurdles, another important equity supply issue which could
affect market sentiment occasionally in 2016 is how the Chinese government will handle the
exit of the direct equity purchase from the National team during the market selloff,
which we estimate to be around Rmb1.8tn from July to October. While visibility is admittedly
low at present, international experiences (HK, US, and Japan) suggest that marketsupportive policies are usually carried out for years and also end with very cautious exits.
And in Chinas case, internal transfer could be another option (i.e. offloading shares to
national pension funds, and sovereign investment corps) which should have limited direct
impact on supply in the secondary market. See China Musings: How much has the
government bought in the market?, August 5.
502
500
386
400
279
300
213
200
100
388
160
134
69
24
100% to 120%
60% to 80%
40% to 60%
80% to 100%
Note: IPO resumption date is the date when first IPO was launched following
20% to 40%
SHCOMP performance
1W
+1M
+6M
+1Y
-4%
-2%
7%
-3%
-7%
-4%
-8%
12%
1%
-1%
47%
69%
-6%
2%
-8%
-18%
-2%
4%
-10%
5%
-7%
2%
29%
148%
5%
16%
10%
-17%
-2%
3%
1%
65%
-3%
2%
8%
33%
0% to 20%
+1D
-1%
1%
3%
-1%
2%
1%
-1%
0%
0%
-20% to 0%
IPO resumption
date
12/8/1994
6/10/1995
1/4/1996
11/3/2001
1/24/2005
6/5/2006
6/30/2009
1/7/2014
Average
-40% to -20%
-60% to -40%
Source: Wind.
Inclusion of Shenzhen into the Connect regime would complete the creation of a singular
China market from a foreign investors' accessibility standpoint, which we believe is a key
prerequisite for A-share inclusion into global equity benchmarks. This will also expand
global investors' investable universe, especially in the New China category.
Our base-case calls for the announcement to be made in early 1Q and the new trading
channel to be up and running in early 2Q, assuming that Chinese regulators are keen to
push for the A-share inclusion to MSCI in May 2016.
Assuming full liberalization, Shenzhen would add 1718 companies (1062 of which have over
US$1bn market cap) and US$3.2tn of listed market cap to investors investable universe.
It will also offer a vastly different set of new (compared with Shanghai and HK), and arguably
exciting, opportunities to global investors as the incremental market cap is concentrated in
New China sectors such as IT, discretionary, and healthcare.
While Shenzhen stocks are thematically compelling and generally offer high EPS growth
(28% for 2016E), they are more speculative (5.7x ann. velocity, 66% owned by retail
investors), more expensively valued (29X fP/E vs. 14X in SH), and are not well-covered by
sell-side brokers. As such, we believe investors will need to be selective when investing
in the Shenzhen bourse.
28
2015 12 3
Market cap
5000
4000
15
13%
3000
10%
10
2000
Singapore
Taiwan
Korea SE
Australian SE
Deutsche Brse
SZSE
Hong Kong SE
Euronext
Japan SE
London SE
NASQAD
SHSE + SZSE
NYSE
1000
China + HK
0%
Shenzhen
Retail ownership
70%
66%
25
60%
47%
50%
40%
20
14
15
10
Shenzhen
Source: WFE.
Shanghai
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Shanghai
Post the confirmation of the inclusion of ADRs to MSCI benchmarks, the next important
inclusion event which we expect will gather global investors attention would be the
potential inclusion of A shares to the MSCI universe. The decision announcement is
scheduled on May 12, 2016, as a part of MSCIs semi-annual index review.
Our base case hasnt changed despite the ups and downs in the A-share market: SZ-HK
Connect is the most important pre-condition for this to materialize as it would complete
foreign investors accessibility requirement by the MSCI. As of now, international investors
cant freely trade Shenzhen-listed stocks unless they are granted QFII capacity, which is
subject to stringent approval processes.
Besides the accessibility issue, the international investment community is also concerned
about the protection of investor interests, freedom to transact (especially in
tumultuous times when liquidity premium usually escalates), availability of hedging tools,
and other operational issues (e.g. program trading), and much more so after the
interventions by the government during the summer correction.
All in all, assuming Shenzhen Connect starts trading in 2Q16, we believe including A shares
to MSCI in 2016 remains a possibility if regulators can make enough progress to
improve market structure and align trading rules with global practices. If our expectation
prevails, we estimate that China could represent 29% of MXEF on 10% A-share
inclusion, and 41% on full-market-cap inclusion by mid-2017.
29
2015 12 3
Number of stocks
900
Suspension due to
important events
600
Note: China ADR includes 14 ADRs to be added into MSCI China index as
announced by MSCI; China A is MSCI China A international index; Proforma weight is calculated by dividing the index market cap to be added by
the combined index market cap.
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
71%
28%
Nov-15
MXAPJ
Oct-15
MXEM
300
Sep-15
MSCI China
0%
Aug-15
10%
87% of stocks
suspended due
to important
events
Jul-15
China ADR
Suspension due to
restructuring
1200
Jun-15
20%
4.0%2.2%
21%
May-15
22%
2.3%
4.4%
1500
Jan-15
30%
China A
(IF=10%)
11% of stocks
suspended due
to restructuring
Apr-15
39%
40%
1800
Mar-15
41%
China all
(IF=100%)
Feb-15
Source: Wind.
5. The maiden year of the 13th FYP; (timing: over the course of 2016)
This is the first FYP by the current administration and has significant strategic
/economic importance given the decelerating (potential) growth trajectory and the ongoing
shifts of growth composition in the economy.
While the plan is still subject to further refinements and the final approval from the NPC in
th
March 2016, the initial guideline published after the 5 Plenum points to an overarching
objective of promoting balanced and sustainable growth, with internal and external
coordination (e.g. Jing-jin-ji and 1 belt 1 road), reforms (SOEs, opening up of service sectors),
technology adoption (internet services, high-tech manufacturing), and improvement of
environmental and social issues being the key focus areas.
Generally, the policy bias is favorably skewed towards the New China economy,
while SOE reforms could create potential beneficiaries but also further stresses for the Old
China segment, in our view.
30
2015 12 3
Exhibit 67: The 13th 5-year plan will likely focus on the following key strategic and socioeconomic issues
Key themes of the 13th five-year plan
Main Themes
Related Sectors
Key objectives
Creating new demand and promoting new technology
Expanding infrastructure construction
Potential Winners
Tourism
SOE reform
Innovation
Potential Losers
Price deregulation
Promoting urbanization
Cooperation
Green
development
Opening-up
Coal, oil
Coal, oil
Financials
Establishing a more equal and sustainable social security system Mass consumption, education, healthcare
Liberalizing investment channels for Social Security Funds
Private hospitals
Social welfare
More efforts to be made on improving poverty
Universal two-child policy
'Healthy China'
rd
The anticorruption campaign has been gathering investors attention since the 3 Plenum
when it was profiled as one of the key policy objectives by the current administration. Indeed,
rd
since the 3 Plenum, the intensity of the campaign has been kept at high levels,
proxied by the number of senior officials (deputy ministerial level or above) who have
undergone disciplinary investigations. This is one of the key reasons for our subdued macro
growth forecast for 1Q16, during which Chinese New Year related entertainment could be
disproportionately impacted by the campaign.
31
2015 12 3
While we expect the anticorruption drive to be here to stay and indeed be a part of the new
normal growth profile for political and social reasons, certain sectors, such as Energy and
This observation also supports our view that the sectors which have been impacted by
anticorruption could be more incentivized to push through SOE reforms as the interest
and incentive between the government and SOE management could be better aligned, all
else equal.
Exhibit 68: After a temporary fall in early 3Q, anticorruption intensity seems to have picked
up again
8
6
4
2
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Exhibit 69: Energy and Telecoms have seen relatively more corruption charges than other
SOE sectors
Sector
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Conglomerates
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Financials
Industrials
IT
Materials
Telecom
Utilities
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
0
1
1
1
0
5
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
3
3
0
0
0
1
2
1
1
1
3
0
4
1
3
0
3
2
0
2
0
3
0
1
3
1
2
3
3
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
Total
10
12
16
12
10
Total
9
11
14
2
13
2
10
11
5
77
Note: We collect all the investigation announcements (over 1300) on the CCDI website from May 2013 to Nov 2015, and
aggregate the number of managers of listed companies or conglomerates with listed companies, being investigated in each
quarter.
Source: CCDI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
32
2015 12 3
In our recent report: China Strategy: New China investing in a new normal growth era, Nov
6, we argued that investors need to embrace a new framework when investing in
Chinese equities given the ongoing macro and micro changes that are manifesting in the
economy. These evolutions have led to significant return divergence among widelyfollowed Chinese equity indexes, and also at the stock level.
In sum, we like New China stocks on a structural growth basis (e.g. in 1H15, New China
generated 35% revenue growth vs. 0% for Old China), and this secular view is reinforced by
cyclical considerations including:
1.
Our macro expectations of slower growth but still-easy financial conditions are
historically supportive of the outperformance for New vs. Old China;
2.
Year-to-dated earnings revision trends remain resilient for New China while
Old China earnings have been revised down 13% ytd;
3.
While New China is trading at 27x forward earnings (13x for Old China), its
4.
Exhibit 78 shows a list of New China stocks under our coverage, listed in both the
onshore and offshore markets, averaging 23x 2016P/E and 26% 2015-2017 EPS CAGR.
Exhibit 71: Return variances have been high in both
offshore and onshore markets, partly reflecting the
divergent fundamental trends among various economic
groups
350%
300%
200%
0%
-50%
-1SD: -29%
Nov-15
Aug-15
Feb-15
May-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
Feb-14
May-14
-100%
Nov-13
HSCEI
HSI
MXCN
AC World
A50
CSI 300
SHCOMP
CN ADRs
SZCOMP
Chinext
-50%
Aug-13
0%
-6%
Feb-13
0%
-50%
24%
50%
2%
May-13
2%
Nov-12
23%
50%
Aug-12
50%
100%
47%
Feb-12
68%
May-12
75%
+1SD: 76%
100%
150%
120%
100%
Nov-11
150%
150%
Aug-11
200%
250%
192%
300%
250%
Rolling12M Returns
200%
May-11
350%
33
2015 12 3
Jun-15
Jan-15
Aug-14
Mar-14
Oct-13
May-13
Jul-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Sep-11
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
85
Apr-11
Old China
90
Nov-10
95
Jan-10
New China
100
Jun-10
49
Marketweight
17 22
9 12
Hong Kong
100
-100
(Off-benchmark allocation)
-200
-283
Underweight
3 5
-31
-200
-300
Utilities
Industrials
Health Care
-600
Materials
-500
Cons. Stap.
-711
Oct-14
Oct-13
Oct-12
Oct-10
Oct-09
Oct-08
Oct-07
Oct-06
Oct-05
-800
Oct-11
Pro-forma China UW
after ADR inclusions
Cons. Disc.
-600
-400
IT
China Offhsore
(excl. HK)
Oct-15
-400
-102
-87
-108 -97
-565
-507
Financials
194
200
Telecom
Energy
bp
400
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
1H15
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
7%
May-12
0%
-20%
-40%
Residual of model
Model estimates
New China relative performance (over Old China)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Sep-11
47%
May-11
Old China
Jan-11
New China
34
2015 12 3
Exhibit 78: Based on our screening criteria, these stocks offer strong growth at reasonable valuations in our New
China universe
'New China' Sector
Ticker
Company name
Sector
>1000
Quoted
Price
>10
>10%
Listed
3M
15-17E
market
ADVT
EPSg
cap
(US$mn)
(%)
(US$mn)
<=1.5
15E
PEG
(X)
B/B*
15E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/E
(X)
15E
P/B
(X)
GS
Rating
Potential
upside
(%)
Health Care
Health Care
IT
Financials
Industrials
Utilities
Average
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
24.5
36.1
33.8
34.1
50.0
38.1
7,301
6,094
21,474
57,764
9,607
5,042
17,880
77
32
132
479
39
58
136
20
20
35
11
37
35
26
1.2
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.0
23.7
24.3
21.4
11.3
41.0
28.7
25.1
19.9
20.3
15.4
10.4
27.6
20.5
19.0
3.1
6.3
6.9
1.8
6.8
5.2
5.0
B*
B
B*
B*
B
B
60%
55%
39%
24%
4%
3%
31%
IT
Industrials
Cons Disc
IT
Cons Disc
IT
IT
Utilities
Average
HKD 154.3
HKD
6.7
USD 16.2
USD 84.0
USD 43.6
USD 214.1
USD 164.4
HKD
6.1
187,120
2,043
8,105
195,445
1,926
59,123
21,636
6,864
60,283
304
13
211
1,491
23
799
144
12
375
26
27
35
23
27
32
16
21
26
1.5
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.3
38.8
36.2
29.3
32.8
34.4
42.3
21.1
22.8
32.2
30.1
27.1
21.9
26.9
28.4
33.1
17.5
18.4
25.4
10.9
2.6
13.7
6.6
8.8
7.5
4.8
3.1
7.2
B*
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
31%
26%
23%
21%
19%
16%
16%
13%
21%
SOE reforms: We expect the 2nd round of central SOE reform to be launched and more
local SOE restructuring efforts to be made in 2016. While the immediate fundamental
impacts are always difficult to estimate, most SOE restructuring announcements have
tended to result in positive market reactions. See China Strategy: The case for rerating (Part 1): Top-down drivers and path, March 4.
Bottomed out stocks with improving story: Exhibit 80 shows that Old China sectors
are not only generally experiencing operating challenges, their equity valuations are also
being priced at significant discounts to their long-term averages (lower left quadrant). We
fully acknowledge that profitability normalization may not universally apply to all these sectors
when the macro story for China is changing, but we see positive fundamental delta
developing in, for example, Property (further recovery of the housing market), Energy
(stabilization of oil prices) in anticorruption), and Telecoms (better 4G adoption, lower capex).
In Exhibit 81, we screen for Buy-rated stocks which belong to sectors where current valuations
and profitability (ROE) are meaningfully below their respective long-term averages. This filters out
Banks, Energy, F&B, Real Estate, and Telecoms. And for Energy and Telecoms, they also
fit into our view that a more mature anticorruption cycle in these sectors could potentially lead to
more decisive SOE reforms.
35
2015 12 3
Exhibit 79: Some SOE restructuring announcements have resulted in positive market
reactions
Announcement date
Reform actions
Companies /
sectors of impact
2014-3-25
CITIC Pacific
2014-4-29
2014-7-15
2014-8-4
2014-9-4
2014-9-25
2014-11-12
2015-6-16
2015-8-10
2015-8-18
2015-11-26
Relative performance
Onshore
Offshore
+1M +3M +6M +1M +3M +6M
-
7%
2%
0%
Telecom
2%
4%
1%
-1%
-2%
2%
6 SOEs
2%
8%
17%
-5%
-6%
-6%
Oil SOEs
2%
-5%
-8%
0%
7%
4%
Railway SOEs
3%
40% 65%
6%
17% 28%
Central SOEs
Industrials
-1%
0%
3%
2%
BoComm
11%
6%
1%
0%
-6% -10%
Shipping
AVIC group
PetroChina
Average
Median
0%
5%
5%
4%
9%
1%
0%
0%
2%
1%
3%
2%
Exhibit 80: Some of the Old China sectors are trading at low valuations and low
profitability expectations
3.5
Old China
New China
3.0
Commercial Services
2.5
Tech Hardware
2.0
Pharmaceuticals
Semiconductors
Consumer Durables
Health Care Services
Capital Goods
Consumer Services
Household Products
Retailing
Autos
Utilities
Transportation
Materials
Real Estate
Diversified Financials
Food & Beverage
Energy
Insurance
Banks
Telecom
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
36
2015 12 3
Exhibit 81: Old China stocks which fall under Banks, Energy, F&B, Real Estate, and Telecoms, and are rated Buy by
our analysts
'Old China' Sector
Ticker
Company name
Sector
Cons Stap
Cons Stap
Cons Stap
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Average
Quoted
Price
CNY 213.8
CNY 65.0
CNY 24.8
CNY 27.2
CNY
3.1
CNY 16.6
CNY 11.8
CNY
5.7
CNY 10.6
>1000
>10
<=2.0
Listed
15-17E
3M
market
EPSg
ADVT
cap
(%)
(US$mn)
(US$mn)
41,974
15,309
14,707
11,239
143,383
25,220
26,276
8,516
17,750
33,819
Financials
HKD 13.5
6,065
Financials
HKD
4.9
9,483
Financials
HKD
3.0
11,895
Financials
HKD 48.3
4,066
Financials
HKD
5.4 166,842
Cons Stap
HKD 11.3
8,181
Financials
HKD
5.6
2,447
Financials
HKD 27.4
34,787
Telecom
HKD 90.4 238,757
Energy
HKD 12.5
5,471
Energy
HKD
5.7
15,377
Average
45,761
Note: B=Buy, N=Neutral; * Denotes stocks on the Conviction List; Pricing as of Dec 1.
15E
PEG
(X)
B/B*
15E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/E
(X)
15E
P/B
(X)
GS
Rating
>10%
Potential
upside
(%)
75
53
136
118
352
133
117
199
273
162
10
17
12
25
4
15
12
4
12
12
1.6
1.2
1.4
0.6
1.3
0.7
0.6
1.5
0.7
1.0
16.2
19.1
15.8
14.4
5.7
10.1
7.3
6.2
7.8
11.4
14.7
16.5
14.0
11.5
5.6
8.7
6.6
6.0
6.8
10.0
4.1
4.3
2.2
5.3
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.9
1.3
2.4
B*
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
42%
40%
31%
28%
25%
18%
16%
16%
16%
26%
13
36
63
32
230
13
11
75
208
35
87
73
6
5
2
18
2
13
16
13
4
2
34
11
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.2
0.7
1.9
1.9
0.5
0.9
4.7
4.6
4.4
10.1
4.8
20.9
4.3
8.7
13.0
8.9
17.2
9.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
8.4
4.8
18.3
3.7
7.7
12.5
9.2
14.3
8.4
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.7
2.4
0.7
1.2
1.6
0.7
0.7
1.0
B*
B*
B
B
B
B
B
B
B*
B
B
75%
60%
57%
47%
43%
42%
42%
37%
32%
27%
22%
44%
37
2015 12 3
Exhibit 82: The relative performance between stocks which may benefit and lose out in a
Rmb weakening environment seems to mirror the actual Rmb movement
CNYUSD
6.45
130
6.40
CNYUSD spot
6.35
120
6.30
Rmb
depreciation
110
6.25
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Mar-15
6.15
Feb-15
90
Jan-15
6.20
Dec-14
100
Exhibit 83: These stocks may disproportionately benefit or lose out in a Rmb weakening environment, based on our
analysts estimates
Ticker
Company name
Sector
Listed
3M ADVT
Quoted Price market cap
(US$mn)
(US$mn)
Net income
change for
10% Rmb
depreciation
16E
EPSg
(%)
17E
EPSg
(%)
15-17E
15E
EPSg
PEG (X)
(%)
15E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/E
(X)
15E
P/B
(X)
GS
Potential
Rating upside (%)
HKD
CNY
CNY
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
1.6
6.5
14.8
3.8
2.5
1.3
2.0
3.2
3.0
3.3
13.1
47.9
3.3
21.8
13.6
367
7,678
3,764
1,058
1,200
718
1,459
915
541
2,220
1,065
7,918
1,072
6,254
2,509
2,582
2
102
75
2
5
1
8
3
2
6
6
14
3
9
2
16
-189%
-183%
-84%
-82%
-75%
-71%
-64%
-62%
-57%
-57%
-49%
-47%
-47%
-44%
-41%
-77%
700
17
20
52
19
16
23
10
24
16
14
15
12
72
489
10
5
23
58
26
26
14
60
13
18
9
15
10
11
53
197
11
21
55
23
21
18
12
21
13
15
12
11
33
3.3
4.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.4
2.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
1.3
1.0
1.3
645.0
45.5
9.4
32.2
18.4
15.9
7.6
23.5
13.3
10.9
8.0
16.2
10.8
65.9
137.0
80.6
38.9
7.8
21.2
15.5
13.6
6.2
72.1
21.3
10.7
9.3
7.0
14.1
9.7
31.0
0.5
2.1
2.6
0.6
0.3
0.7
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.4
2.1
1.0
1.2
2.6
1.2
1.2
S
S
S
S
N
N
N
B
N
N
N
B*
N
B
N
-39%
-46%
-44%
-35%
14%
8%
-8%
34%
-1%
24%
40%
34%
3%
16%
8%
1%
HKD
CNY
HKD
USD
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
CNY
HKD
HKD
HKD
HKD
CNY
HKD
HKD
4.2
6.9
17.7
9.8
1.7
3.8
2.4
13.6
14.9
41.1
6.1
9.3
3.1
24.5
1.6
6.1
474
1,477
1,725
905
663
3,138
1,298
5,973
3,405
7,417
711
1,657
434
10,601
797
1,148
2,614
2
28
11
20
0
5
9
45
104
13
3
14
4
232
3
2
31
87%
74%
58%
56%
45%
44%
40%
40%
37%
33%
31%
29%
19%
19%
16%
13%
40%
7
55
13
107
126
11
18
-11
41
13
9
19
47
6
-1
31
12
41
10
2
8
11
19
8
19
13
18
5
60
41
21
5
10
48
11
45
56
11
19
-2
30
13
13
11
44
14
2
22
2.3
1.5
1.4
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.5
-4.3
0.6
1.5
0.8
1.3
3.7
1.5
2.9
1.0
22.7
70.0
16.1
15.3
45.6
3.8
10.2
8.4
18.9
19.7
10.2
15.1
163.3
20.5
6.7
29.8
21.1
45.1
14.3
7.4
20.2
3.4
8.6
9.5
13.4
17.4
9.4
12.8
32.4
111.4
19.3
6.7
22.0
1.1
1.2
2.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.2
2.6
3.6
1.4
0.6
0.4
4.5
0.4
0.9
1.4
N
N
N
B
S
B
N
B
N
B
B
N
N
S
N
B
-14%
-4%
-7%
22%
1%
34%
8%
34%
-22%
11%
57%
10%
6%
-27%
-19%
72%
10%
Note (1): Earnings impacts on RMB depreciation are based on GS analysts' estimates.
Note (2): B = Buy, N = Neutral, S= Sell, * denotes stocks on the Conviction list; Prices as of Dec 1.
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Gao Hua Investment Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
38
2015 12 3
Ticker
Company name
Listed
3M
15-17E
market
ADVT
EPSg
cap
(US$mn)
(%)
(US$mn)
Quoted
Price
Sector
Health Care
Health Care
Cons Stap
IT
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Cons Disc
Financials
CNY 24.5
CNY 36.1
CNY 213.8
CNY 33.8
CNY 24.0
CNY 44.2
CNY 27.2
CNY 34.1
CNY 24.3
CNY 16.6
7,301
6,094
41,974
21,474
3,961
5,467
11,239
57,764
6,832
25,220
Financials
HKD 27.4
34,787
Industrials
HKD 47.9
7,918
Telecom
HKD 90.4 238,757
IT
HKD 154.3 187,120
Industrials
HKD
6.7
2,043
Health Care
HKD
7.0
2,999
Cons Disc
USD 16.2
8,105
IT
USD 84.0 195,445
IT
USD 214.1
59,123
Cons Disc
HKD 41.1
7,417
Average
46,552
Note: B=Buy; * Denotes stocks on the Conviction List; Pricing as of Dec 1.
15E
PEG
(X)
15E
P/E
(X)
16E
P/E
(X)
15E
P/B
(X)
GS
Rating
Potential
upside
(%)
77
32
75
132
100
99
60
479
32
133
20
20
10
35
27
24
25
11
22
15
1.2
1.2
1.6
0.6
1.3
1.8
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.7
23.7
24.3
16.2
21.4
34.2
41.9
14.4
11.3
24.1
10.1
19.9
20.3
14.7
15.4
24.6
32.6
11.5
10.4
19.4
8.7
3.1
6.3
4.1
6.9
5.4
7.6
5.3
1.8
3.7
1.8
B*
B
B*
B*
B*
B
B
B*
B*
B
60%
55%
42%
39%
35%
32%
28%
24%
20%
18%
70
14
208
304
13
5
211
1,491
799
13
217
13
13
4
26
27
19
35
23
32
13
21
0.7
0.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.2
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.2
8.7
10.9
13.0
38.8
36.2
23.5
29.3
32.8
42.3
19.7
23.8
7.7
9.3
12.5
30.1
27.1
19.6
21.9
26.9
33.1
17.4
19.2
1.3
1.0
1.6
10.9
2.6
3.4
13.7
6.6
7.5
3.6
4.9
B
B*
B*
B*
B
B*
B
B
B
B
37%
34%
32%
31%
26%
26%
23%
21%
16%
11%
31%
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
f-P/E (x)
26
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
16
Aug-15
18
90
Jul-15
100
20
Jun-15
+1%
May-15
110
22
Apr-15
+21%
120
Mar-15
24
130
Feb-15
39
2015 12 3
Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Kinger Lau, CFA, Timothy Moe, CFA, Jack Wang,
Si Fu, Ph.D., Ki Cheong Wong, Ph.D. and Alvin So of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this
product.
Special disclosure
All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior
written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be
reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial
instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an as is basis, and the
user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI,
any of its affiliates nor any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data
makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to this information (or
the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party
hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or
fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the
foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to,
computing or compiling the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,
consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of
such damages. MSCI and the MSCI indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is the exclusive property
of MSCI and Standard & Poors. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed
for use by The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
40
2015 12 3
, Ph.D
25-35%10-15%
(A) 12
(N) 12 (C) 12
(NR)
(RS)
() (CS)
(NC) (NA) (NM)
()
http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp
2015
(i)(ii)
41