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Global Connections

May 9, 2012

Shake Well Before Using


It appears Greece is going to have to leave the euro zone. Equity markets are still of the view that this
course would be disorderly and catastrophic for the rest of the euro bloc, the world economy and equity
markets. Im inclined to disagree. I think that a Greek exit, if handled properly and if the European
authorities employ their firewall funds to effectively defend Spain, Italy and Portugal, would be bullish for
the other equity markets around the world that are currently being pummeled. The other European
countries have their ailments, but Greece has a malignant cancer that needs surgery and radiation.
The recent Greek elections showed that the Greek street has had all the austerity it will accept. By some
measures, Greece has had a depression of deeper magnitude than the U.S. experienced in the 1930s.
Now the newly empowered political parties are refusing to honor the terms of the countrys international
loan agreements. Chaos reigns! Within the euro bloc, Greece has years of even deeper pain ahead.
Greece desperately needs its own currency and a major devaluation to restore its competiveness and to
begin curing its ills. A devaluation (surgery) would cause massive creative destruction in Greece but buy
the time to implement the reforms that are so essential.

Year II
Issue #89
The aim of Itas Global
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The Greeks seem to be relying on the rest of Europe to come up with the funds to kick the Greek can down
the road one more time. They hope the fear of contamination and the commitment to sustaining the euro
are so powerful that the rest of Europe will continue to prop them up. Certainly the Germans and the
European elite want to preserve the euro for both economic and political reasons, but Europe is not ready
to become the United States of Europe, with all the commonality that implies.
Meanwhile, the Germans are getting tougher. A few days ago German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schauble stated that membership in the European Union is voluntary and Greece has a choice. The press
reports that the German public is predominantly of the opinion that they should not provide further support
to the shiftless, deceitful, and self-indulgent Greeks and that they and the rest of Europe would be better
off with Greece out of the euro zone.
The powers that be in Europe, principally Germany, and almost certainly the IMF are adamant that Greece
must fulfill its treaty commitments or there will be no more transfusions of money. I dont blame them. The
Greeks misrepresented their finances in order to get into the euro zone, and subsequent governments
have failed to take most of the measures, from tax collecting to labor reforms, that were obviously essential
to improve the countrys financial position. Now they have to endure the consequences.
The fear that pervades markets today is that an exit from the euro zone by Greece would vastly intensify
the financial contamination that already is being created. Presently, the vigilantes are attacking other
troubled European countries financial instruments, and stock markets are falling, credit spreads are
widening and sovereign debt rates are climbing. Today Spain, Italy, and Portugal are the three principal
targets. Tomorrow, who knows? A total break-up of the euro zone and a shutdown of the global banking
system (even a temporary one) would be a catastrophe for the world economy and would almost certainly
engender the feared double-dip. In the longer term, whether the euro zone and its currency can survive in a
bloc of divergent countries without a common fiscal policy remains to be seen.
If my rosy scenario works out, in which Greece is allowed to go and the other sickly economies are
successfully defended, equity markets will likely resume their march higher. I think the U.S. and Asia would
be the prime beneficiaries. Often wrong, never in doubt.

Barton Biggs is a Managing Partner at Traxis Partners.

Please refer to page 3 of this report for important disclosures, analyst certifications and additional information.
Ita BBA does and seeks to do business with Companies covered in this research report. As a result, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should not consider this report as the sole factor in making their investment decision.

Barton Biggs is a Managing


Partner at Traxis Partners.

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Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Ita Unibanco Group. Ita BBA is a registered mark used by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.

Global Connections May 9, 2012

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DISCLAIMER
Ita BBA is a brand name of Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.
Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships
Definition (2)

Coverage (3)

Banking
Relationship (4)

Outperform

The analyst expects the stock to perform better than


the market average.

52%

42%

Market Perform

The analyst expects the stock to perform in line with


the market average.

37%

30%

Underperform

The analyst expects the stock to perform below the


market average.

11%

9%

Ratings (1)

1. The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform), for purposes of the ratings distribution
disclosure requirements of FINRA and the NYSE, correspond most closely, respectively, to Buy, Hold and Sell.
2. Ratings reflect the analysts assessment of the stock price performance in the medium term compared with the market
average. Recommendations will be valid until the analyst changes the rating, which may happen as a result of news or
simply due to a change in the stock price (there is not a defined time horizon). Companies are grouped, according to their
similarities, into sectors. The sectors are: (i) Banking & Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food &
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Utilities, and (x) Equity Strategy.
3. Percentage of companies under coverage by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.
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provided investment banking services within the past 12 (twelve) months, or may provide investment banking services
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Relevant Information
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Global Connections May 9, 2012

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Equities
Christian Egan - Global Head of Equities & ETD

Research
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head

+55-11-3073-3001

Equity Strategy
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
Susana Salaru, CNPI
Florian Tanzer (LatAm)
Pedro Maia, CNPI

+55-11-3073-3001
+55-11-3073-3009
+55-11-3073-3025
+55-11-3073-3065

Argentina Research
Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA
Nicols Chialva, CFA

+54-11-5273-3593
+54-11-5273-3503

Chile Research
Barbara Angerstein
Gustavo Fingeret

+56-2-834-6297
+56-2-834-6295

Agribusiness
Giovana Arajo, CNPI
Antonio Barreto, CNPI

+55-11-3073-3036
+55-11-3073-3060

Banking & Financial Services


Regina Longo Sanchez, CNPI
Thiago Bovolenta Batista, CFA
Alexandre Spada, CFA
Nicols Chialva, CFA, Argentina & Chile

+55-11-3073-3042
+55-11-3073-3043
+55-11-3073-3004
+54-11-5273-3503

Consumer Goods & Retail


Joaquin Ley, Mexico
Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA
Barbara Angerstein, Chile
Vitor Paschoal
Paloma Campos, Mexico

+52-55-5262-0676
+55-11-3073-3035
+56-2-834-6297
+55-11-3073-3039
+52-55-5262-0677

carlos.constantini@itaubba.com Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals


Paula Kovarsky, CNPI
Diego Mendes, CNPI
carlos.constantini@itaubba.com
susana.salaru@itaubba.com Real Estate
florian.tanzer@itaubba.com David Lawant, CNPI
pedro.maia@itaubba.com Vivian Salomon, Mexico & Colombia
Enrico Trotta, CNPI
ricardo.cavanagh@itau.com.ar Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper
nicolas.chialva@itau.com.ar Marcos Assumpo, CFA
Andr Pinheiro, CNPI
barbara.angerstein@itau.cl Telecommunications, Media & Technology
gustavo.fingeret@itau.cl Gregorio Tomassi, Mexico
Susana Salaru, CNPI
Carlos Constantini, CNPI
giovana.araujo@itaubba.com Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA, Argentina
antonio.barreto@itaubba.com Gustavo Fingeret, Chile
Industrials + Transportation & Logistic
regina.sanchez@itaubba.com Renata Faber, CNPI
thiago.batista@itaubba.com
alexandre.spada@itaubba.com Utilities
nicolas.chialva@itau.com.ar Marcos Severine, CNPI
Mariana Coelho, CNPI
joaquin.ley@itaubba.com
juliana.rozenbaum@itaubba.com
barbara.angerstein@itau.cl
vitor.paschoal@itaubba.com
paloma.campos@itaubba.com

Economics
Guilherme da Nobrega, CNPI - Head
Mauricio Oreng
Luiz Gustavo Cherman

Retail Strategy
Lucas Tambellini , CNPI
alexandre.miguel@itaubba.com Cida Souza, CNPI
renato.salomone@itaubba.com Marcello Rossi, CNPI
Fbio Perina, CNPI

Food & Beverage


Alexandre Miguel, CFA
Renato Salomone, CNPI , Mexico

+55-11-3073-3020
+52-55-5262-0674

Healthcare + Education
Thiago Macruz, CNPI

+55-11-3073-3034

thiago.macruz@itaubba.com

+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330
+55 11 3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330

carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com
marcia.sadzevicius@itaubba.com
rodrigo.pace@itaubba.com
jose.arvelos@itaubba.com
carlos.carvalho-lima@itaubba.com

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diego.mendes@itaubba.com

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marcos.assumpcao@itaubba.com
andre.pinheiro@itaubba.com

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+56-2-834-6295

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susana.salaru@itaubba.com
carlos.constantini@itaubba.com
ricardo.cavanagh@itau.com.ar
gustavo.fingeret@itau.cl

+55-11-3073-3017

renata.faber@itaubba.com

+55-11-3073-3011
+55-11-3073-3024

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mariana.coelho@itaubba.com

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moreng@itaubba.com
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+813-3539-3850

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+852-3657-2398

caio.galvao@itausecurities.com

+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780

kevin.hard@itaubba.com
eric.krall@itaubba.com
fernando.lasalvia@itaubba.com
james.tallarico@itaubba.com
brad.marra@itaubba.com

+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
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+55-11-3073-3310

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raphael.lie@itaubba.com
marcio.caires@itaubba.com

+55-11-3073-3340
+55-11-3073-3340

manoel.gimenez-neto@itaubba.com
haroldo.vasconcellos@itaubba.com

+55-11-3073-3211
+55-11-3073-3211

joao.caccese@itaubba.com
leandro.muniz@itaubba.com

+55 11 3073-3110
+55-11-3073-3150
+55-11-3073-3145
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+55 11 3073-3297

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ricardo.guntovitch@itaubba.com
ricardo.costa@itaubba.com

Equity Sales & Trading


Latin America
Sales - Latin America
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Mrcia Sadzevicius
Rodrigo Pace
Jos Henrique Sapag Arvelos
Carlos Carvalho Lima (Macro)
Sales Trading - Brazil
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Alec Cunningham
Aureo Bernardo
Pedro H. Rocha Sauma
Carlos Faria
Lucas Gonalves

+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3330
+55 11 3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310

Trading - Brazil
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Cristiano Soares
Srgio Rocha
Thiem Hauenschild
Bruno Campos
Pedro Feres

+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3149

North America
Sales - North America
Adam Cherry - Head
Kahlil Adam, CFA
Flavia Stingelin, CFA
Carina Cassab Carreira

Europe, Middle East & Asia


Sales - Europe
carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com Mark Fenton - Head
alec.cunningham@itaubba.com Aneli Gonzalez, CFA
aureo.bernardo@itaubba.com Fabio Faraggi
pedro.sauma@itaubba.com
carlos.faria@itaubba.com Sales - Japan
lucas.goncalves@itaubba.com Masayoshi Yazawa

carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com
cristiano.soares@itaubba.com
sergio.rocha@itaubba.com
thiem.von@itaubba.com
bruno.campos@itaubba.com
pedro.feres@itaubba.com

Sales - Hong Kong


Caio Galvo
Sales Trading - North America
Kevin Hard - Head
Eric Krall
Fernando Lasalvia
James Tallarico
Brad Marra

Futures, Derivatives & Stock Lending


Carlos Maggioli - Head
Futures Desk
Eduardo Barcellos - Head
Fabio Herdeiro
Alan Eira
Alexandre Rizzo
Celso Azem
Jos Dezene
Thierry Decoene
Hernan Livore
Bruno Giusti
Guilherme Michetti

+55-11-3073-3300

+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320

carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com Derivatives
Fabiano V. Romano - Head
Rafael Americo
eduardo.barcellos@itaubba.com Raphael Lie
fabio.herdeiro@itaubba.com Marcio Caires
alan.eira@itaubba.com
alexandre.rizzo@itaubba.com FX Spot
celso.azem@itaubba.com Manoel Gimenez
jose.dezene@itaubba.com Haroldo Vasconcellos
thierry.decoene@itaubba.com
hernan.livore@itaubba.com Stock Lending
bruno.giusti@itaubba.com Joo Victor Caccese
guilherme.michetti@itaubba.com Leandro Muniz

Private Banking Desk


Carlos Maggioli - Head

+55-11-3073-3300

carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com

Private Banking Sales - High


Felipe Beltrami - Head
Caio Felipe Zanardo Val
Marco Antnio Gomes
Natlia Mnaco

+55 11 3073-3110
+55 11 3073-3292
+55 11 3073-3148
+55 11 3073-3297

felipe.beltrami@itaubba.com
caio.val@itaubba.com
marco.gomes@itaubba.com
natalia.monaco@itaubba.com

Private Banking Sales - Ultra


Sergio Fonseca Rosa - Head
Edgard Claussen Vilela
Robinson Minetto
Thiago de Freitas Ribeiro

+55 11 3073-3110
+55 11 3073-3291
+55 11 3073-3290
+55-11-3073-3290

sergio.rosa@itaubba.com
edgard.vilela@itaubba.com
robinson.minetto@itaubba.com
thiago.freitas-ribeiro@itaubba.com

Private Banking Sales - Special


Marcelo Ferri - Head
Guilherme Rudge Simes
Patrick Kalim
Ricardo Guntovitch
Ricardo Julio Costa

Ita Securities' Global Offices


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not indicative of future results.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc., and Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. accepts responsibility for its
contents accordingly. Any US persons receiving this research and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.

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