Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Feasibility Report
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ABBREVIATIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SALIENT FEATURES
1
INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 2
1.1
PROJECT BACKGROUND ............................................................................. 2
1.2
SCOPE OF WORK.......................................................................................... 4
1.3
NAGDAR HYDROPOWER PROJECT............................................................ 4
1.3.1
Location .......................................................................................... 4
1.3.2
Salient Features.............................................................................. 5
1.4
ACCESSIBILITY TO THE PROJECT AREA ................................................... 6
1.4.1
Route Distance ............................................................................... 6
1.5
COMMUNICATION ......................................................................................... 7
1.6
ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY ......................................................................... 8
1.7
PREVIOUS STUDIES ..................................................................................... 8
ii
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
iii
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
4.16
4.17
iv
4.18
4.19
4.20
4.21
4.17.6
Powerhouse Cavern Structure.................................................... 112
4.17.7
Access Tunnel ............................................................................ 113
4.17.8
Tailrace ....................................................................................... 114
ROCK MASS ASSESMENT........................................................................ 114
4.18.1
Rock Structure Rating (RSR)...................................................... 115
4.18.2
Geomechanics Classification or Rock Mass Rating System ...... 118
4.18.3
Rock Tunneling Quality Index, Q ................................................ 125
GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF)............................................ 132
CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 132
RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 134
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.10
7.11
7.12
8
7.2.4
Gates and Stop Logs .................................................................. 165
7.2.5
Gravel Scour ............................................................................... 165
POWER INTAKE ......................................................................................... 165
CONNECTING CHANNEL .......................................................................... 166
7.4.1
Reject Weir ................................................................................. 167
DESANDER / SANDTRAP .......................................................................... 167
7.5.1
Hydraulic Steel Structures .......................................................... 168
7.5.1.1
Inlet Gate.................................................................. 168
7.5.1.2
Outlet Gate............................................................... 169
7.5.1.3
Sand Flushing Gates................................................ 169
POWER TUNNEL ....................................................................................... 169
7.6.1
Conventional Heading Method.................................................... 171
7.6.1.1
External Water Pressure .......................................... 171
7.6.1.2
Support..................................................................... 172
SURGE TANK ............................................................................................. 172
7.7.1
Excavation and Support.............................................................. 174
7.7.2
Lining .......................................................................................... 174
PRESSURE SHAFT .................................................................................... 174
ECONOMIC DIAMETER OF PRESSURE SHAFT...................................... 175
ACCESS TUNNEL TO POWERHOUSE ..................................................... 175
7.10.1
Inclined Shaft to Powerhouse ..................................................... 176
POWERHOUSE .......................................................................................... 176
TAILRACE TUNNEL.................................................................................... 177
vi
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.10
8.11
8.12
8.6.3
Turbine Shaft .............................................................................. 189
8.6.4
Casing......................................................................................... 190
8.6.5
Nozzles ....................................................................................... 190
8.6.6
Needles....................................................................................... 191
8.6.7
Jet Deflectors .............................................................................. 191
GOVERNOR SYSTEM................................................................................ 191
8.7.1
General ....................................................................................... 191
8.7.2
Governor Head ........................................................................... 192
8.7.3
Oil Pressure System ................................................................... 192
INLET VALVE.............................................................................................. 193
POWERHOUSE CRANE............................................................................. 193
COOLING AND DEWATERING SYSTEM .................................................. 194
8.10.1
Basic Requirements.................................................................... 194
8.10.2
Cooling Water System ................................................................ 194
8.10.3
Power Station Drainage System ................................................. 194
HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM ................ 195
8.11.1
General ....................................................................................... 195
8.11.2
General System Description ....................................................... 196
8.11.2.1
Machine Hall ............................................................ 196
8.11.2.2
Office and Control Room Building............................ 196
8.11.2.3
Design Criteria ......................................................... 197
AUXILIARY SYSTEM .................................................................................. 197
8.12.1
Workshop Equipment.................................................................. 197
8.12.2
Auxiliary Equipment .................................................................... 197
8.12.2.1
Oil Handling Equipment ........................................... 198
8.12.2.2
Fire Fighting System ................................................ 198
8.12.3
Maintenance Tools and Spares .................................................. 198
vii
9.7
10
viii
ix
11
12
13
13.4
13.5
13.6
14
xi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure - 1.1:
Figure - 3.1:
Figure - 3.2:
Figure - 3.3:
Figure - 3.4:
Figure - 3.5:
Figure - 3.6:
Figure - 3.7:
Figure - 3.8:
Figure - 3.9:
Figure - 3.10:
Figure - 3.11:
Figure - 3.12:
Figure - 3.13:
Figure - 3.14:
Figure - 3.15:
Figure - 3.16:
Figure - 3.17:
Figure - 3.18:
Figure - 3.19:
Figure - 3.20:
Figure - 3.21:
Figure - 3.22:
Figure - 3.23:
Figure - 3.24:
Figure - 3.25:
Figure - 3.26:
Figure - 3.27:
Figure - 3.28:
Figure - 3.29:
Figure - 4.1:
Figure - 4.2:
Figure - 4.3 a):
Figure - 4.3 b):
Figure - 4.4 a):
Figure - 4.4 b):
Figure - 4.5 a):
Figure - 4.5 b):
xii
Figure - 4.6:
Figure - 4.7:
Figure - 4.8:
Figure - 4.9:
Figure - 4.10:
Figure - 4.11:
Figure - 4.12:
Figure - 4.13:
Figure - 4.14:
Figure - 4.15:
Figure - 4.16:
Figure - 4.17:
Figure - 4.18
Figure - 4.18:
Figure - 4.19:
Figure - 4.20:
Figure - 4.21:
Figure - 4.22:
Figure - 4.23:
Figure - 4.24:
Figure - 4.25:
Figure - 4.26:
Figure - 4.27:
Figure - 4.28:
Figure - 4.29:
Figure - 4.30:
Figure - 4.31:
Figure - 4.32:
Figure - 4.33:
xiii
Figure - 4.34:
Figure - 4.35:
Figure - 4.36:
Figure - 4.37:
Figure - 4.38:
Figure - 6.1:
Figure - 6.2:
Figure - 6.3:
Figure - 6.4:
Figure - 6.5:
Figure - 6.6:
Figure - 8.1:
Figure - 8.2:
xiv
LIST OF TABLES
Table - 1.1:
Table - 2.1:
Table - 2.2:
Table - 3.1:
Table - 3.2:
Table - 3.3:
Table - 3.4:
Table - 3.5:
Table - 3.6:
Table - 3.7:
Table - 3.8:
Table - 3.9:
Table - 3.10:
Table - 3.11:
Table - 3.12:
Table - 3.13:
Table - 3.14:
Table - 3.15:
Table - 3.16:
Table - 3.17:
Table - 3.18:
Table - 4.1:
Table - 4.2:
Table - 4.3:
Table - 4.4:
Table - 4.5:
Table - 4.6:
Table - 4.7:
Table - 4.8:
Table - 4.9:
Table - 4.10:
Table - 4.11:
Table - 4.12:
Table - 6.1:
Table - 6.2:
Table - 6.3:
Table - 6.4:
Comparison of Cost
Normal Cost Run-off-River Option
10% Increased Cost Option
Reduced Flows Option
Table - 7.1:
Table - 7.2:
Table - 7.3:
Table - 7.4:
Table - 7.5:
xv
Table - 7.6:
Table - 8.1:
Table - 8.2:
Table - 8.3:
Table - 11.1:
Table - 11.2:
Table - 11.3:
Table - 11.4:
Table - 12.1:
Implementation Schedule
Table - 13.1:
Table - 13.2:
Table - 13.3:
Table - 13.4:
Economic Analysis
Financial Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Cost per KWh and kW
xvi
ABBREVIATIONS
ABBREVIATIONS
-
AJ&K
HEB
AHUs
ASR
AC
AASHTO
AISI
ASHRAE
ASTM
A
ABGM
BM
B/C
CFG
CP
XLPE
m3/s or cumec
C
DSHA
DEM
DC
Dwg
EIRR
EDM
ESMMP
EMP
EMU
EPA
FEM
FIRR
FC
GT Sheet
GWh
GLOF
GPS
HKS
HLSZ
HVAC
ha
Hz
HFT
HPP
IKSZ
IEE
IDC
IEC
JF
KIBOR
kV
km
kVA
kWh
LoC
l / s / km2
l /s / person
l / s / m2
LC
LIBOR
MBT
MCT
MKT
MMT
MCE
MDE
msl
MVA
MW
m asl
m/s
m
mm
NEPRA
NEQS
NPV
NPW
NOX
ONAF
ONAN
OBE
O&M
Pak. Rs. / PKR
ppm
PGA
PGV
%
PCC
PVC
PLC
PSHA
PAP
RCC
RFO
rpm
RMR
RQD
RSR
RBGM
SRT
SS
SRTM
SCR
SIA
km2
SBM
SCF
SF6
SOX
SCADA
SWHP
SOP
TOR
TCR
T/L
USGS
US $
UTM
WAPDA
WAPDA-GTZ
WGS
ZSZ
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.
PROJECT LOCATION
The proposed Nagdar hydropower project is identified in the lower 6 km stretch of
Nagdar nullah, near Keran village in the Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir in
Pakistan. Nagdar nullah is a right bank tributary of Neelum River located in
Neelum district with its confluence located about 92 km North East of
Muzaffarabad city. The project layout has been planned on the right bank of
Nagdar nullah with diversion weir intake, sandtrap, low pressure headrace tunnel,
surge shaft, pressure shaft and pressure tunnel leading to underground
powerhouse. The tailrace will be free flow tunnel. An access tunnel is provided
for handling of plant and equipment transportation to the powerhouse.
The weir intake is proposed 200 m downstream of Shelyath Nar while the
powerhouse near Danjar village about 4 km downstream of Nagdar nullah
confluence with Neelum River. The coordinates and elevations of weir and
powerhouse are listed below.
Site
Latitude
Longitude
Elevation
(m asl)
Weir
34 41 18
73 54 20
1950
Powerhouse
34 39 09
73 55 00
1480
The project area is accessible from Muzaffarabad via main Neelum road up to
Keran village. The weir site is accessible by jeepable road leading to Neelum
village then following along the Nagdar nullah. Nagdar valley from Keran village
becomes inaccessible during winter months due to snowfall and the road leading
to proposed weir site needs to be widened. Construction of bridge over Danjar
nullah will also be required for an access to the powerhouse area and handling of
plant and equipment.
2.
A gauge has been established at Nagdar nullah on April 26, 2009 and flow
measurements have been carried out by the Consultants. Low flows observation
at Nagdar nullah by SWHP, WAPDA were carried out in past years. The
estimated and observed flows are matching and considered realistic comparing
specific flows at Kundal Shahi and Thunian on Jagran River. The estimated mean
monthly flows are graphically presented in the following Figure.
The mean monthly flows vary from 1.07 to 14.68 m3/s with mean annual value of
5.44 m3/s. The design flood for weir is taken as 204 m3/s for a return period of
1000 year.
Long term data available at nearest hydrological station Nausehri, has been
considered to assess the suspended and bed sediment load at Nagdar
Hydropower Project by developing a relationship between flows and sediment
concentration in ppm as given below.
Y = 1.881X0.841
Where
Y = sediment concentration (PPM)
X = discharge (m3/s)
The particle size distribution at the diversion site has also been estimated as
stated below:
Sand
13%
Silt
64%
Clay
23 %
3.
TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEYS
With the commencement of studies, control points / bench marks were established
along the stretch of interest of Nagdar nullah. A longitudinal profile survey was
carried out to estimate the head available for power generation. Thus a detailed
topographic survey has been carried out in the area of all important structures of the
scheme. Topographic survey has been carried out for weir area and surge to
powerhouse and tailrace area. A total area of 88 hectares was surveyed by
traversing with EDM. All the data was computerized and maps of appropriate
scales with 2 m contour interval were derived. Topographic maps for tunnel
alignment, covering area of 185 hectares, have been prepared with help of high
resolution satellite images and digital elevation model.
4.
GEOLOGY
Rocks of metamorphic origin are exposed at weir site in Nagdar valley with thin
cover of morainic material comprising of angular boulders and gravel with sand
and appreciable amount of fines. Phyllites and schists are major rock types in the
Nagdar valley. The headrace tunnel alignment shall apparently pass through in
the rocks comprising of schists and granitic gneiss with igneous intrusions at
places.
It is envisaged that no major problem is expected during the process of tunnel
excavation. The surge tank and pressure shaft would be excavated in rocks
comprising mainly of granitic gneiss (metamorphic). The rocks are moderately
weathered and sparsely jointed. The powerhouse proposed as underground
structure near Danjar village will be excavated in sound rock like granodiorites,
phyllites and schists. The downstream portion of initial 150 m portion of tailrace
would be in soft rock while the later portion to powerhouse would be in sound
rock.
A sub-surface investigation plan was recommended by the Consultants which will
be conducted through third party. The investigation plan includes sub-surface
drilling and laboratory testing. The data so obtained will be utilised for detailed
designing of the structures involved in the project.
Construction materials do not pose any problem. Cement and steel are locally
manufactured in the country. The aggregates (sand and gravel) are abundantly
available at site or can be manufactured by processing the required excavations.
5.
6.
CIVIL STRUCTURES
The whole project layout would be located on the right bank of Nagdar nullah.
The weir is ungated over flow structure with an undersluice for the sediment
flushing. The weir has been planned with crest elevation at 1956 m asl, about
5.6 km upstream of confluence of Nagdar nullah with Neelum River. A design
discharge of 9 m3/s would be diverted through surface sandtrap and 3840 m low
pressure headrace tunnel would lead towards Danjar village. Headrace tunnel
would be shotcrete lined with diameter of 3.1 m.
The surge shaft would be located at the end of headrace tunnel and before start of
pressure tunnel. A 680 m long pressure shaft including pressure tunnel with
2.1 m diameter would connect with underground powerhouse. The turbine axis is
proposed at 1486 m asl. Tailrace tunnel would be free flow, 537 m long and a
25 m long tailrace channel would discharge outflows into Danjar nuallh. An
access tunnel of about 505 m is provided for handling of plant and equipment.
7.
ELECTRO-MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT
Four number of Horizontal Pelton turbines, each with a capacity of 8.75 MW have
been proposed with following parameters:
Type of Turbine
Pelton, 2 jet
Design Head
464 m
600 rpm
The powerhouse will be equipped with auxiliary mechanical equipment for smooth
operation as well as maintenance. Four generators, each of 10.30 MVA have
been proposed. Power factor would be 0.85 and generation will be at 11 kV.
Each generator will be feeding to one step up transformer of 10/13 MVA capacity.
The power would be transmitted through 132 kV lines to a new grid station at
Authmuqam and then to Muzaffarabad grid station.
8.
9.
ENVIRONMENT
On the basis of the field findings during the Initial Environmental and Social
Impact Examination study, it can be concluded that the proposed Nagdar
Hydropower Project will not have any significant adverse impacts on the local
population or any segment of the environment provided the mentioned
recommendations and mitigation measures suggested in study are fully
implemented during construction and by the plant management in letter and spirit.
SALIENT FEATURES
SALIENT FEATURES
NAGDAR HYDROPOWER PROJECT
1
GENERAL
Project Location
HYDROLOGY
82 km2
5.44 m3/s
Design Discharge
09 m3/s
204 m3/sec
TOPOGRAPHY
Gross Head
470 m
Net Head
464 m
CIVIL STRUCTURES
4.1
DIVERSION WEIR
4.2
4.3
Type of Intake
Lateral Intake
6m
14 m
Crest Elevation
1956.0 m asl
Length of Weir
14 m
Roller Bucket
CONNECTING CHANNEL
Velocity
2.19 m/s
40 m
SANDTRAP
Number of Chambers
4m
Length of Chamber
54 m
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
HEADRACE TUNNEL
2.8 m x 3.1 m
Type of Section
Horse Shoe
3840 m
Lining
Partially Lined
SURGE TANK
Diameter
6m
Depth
32 m
Diameter
2.1 m
Length
680 m
POWERHOUSE
Type
Cavern
Length
62.6 m
Width
14.6 m
Height
18 m
Access Tunnel
505 m
Tailrace Tunnel
537 m
Tailrace Channel
25 m
ELECTRO-MECHANICAL
Type of Turbine
No. of Units
Four (04)
Installed Capacity
35 MW
3.4 MW
146.05 GWh
Plant Factor
47.64 %
Generation Voltage
11 kV
Voltage of Dispatch
132 kV
Foreign Components
27.78%
14.30%
1.75
7.643
6.496
CONSTRUCTION PERIOD
Preliminary Works
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
1.1
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Neelum River is a right bank tributary of Jhelum River with its confluence at
Domel in Muzaffarabad. Neelum River is fed by a network of major tributaries on
its right bank along its stretch from Taobut to Muzaffarabad. These tributaries
generally run in North to South direction with catchment areas ranging from 80 to
400 km2. Gagai Nar, Shounter nullah, Janawahi nullah, Surgan nullah, Dowarian
nullah, Luat nullah and Nagdar nullah are major tributaries. High specific
discharge and steep gradient of the main river as well as that of its tributaries
offer promising hydropower sites in the valley. A number of potential hydropower
sites were identified on the lower part of the catchments; whereas, the sites on
the upper catchment are yet to be identified and firmed up.
Hydro Electric Board (HEB) of the Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) has
signed a Consultancy Agreement in November 2008 with M/s Fida Hussain
Chaudhary FHC Consulting Engineers, Lahore in association with M/s Scott
Wilson Limited of United Kingdom and M/s Electra Consultants, Peshawar. The
scope of services includes the preparation of the feasibility study reports, detailed
technical / engineering designs, tender documents and preparation of the site
investigation documents for the six (6) high head medium sized hydropower sites
namely; Nagdar, Luat, Dowarian, Shounter, Janawahi and Taobut. All of these
sites are located on the right bank of Neelum River in District Neelum.
The three sites; namely Nagdar, Luat and Dowarian were identified earlier by a
French Firm CFG in 1986, while the remaining three sites were identified by
Hydro Electric Board of the Government of Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir as
mentioned in the Terms of Reference (TOR). During the preliminary site
identification studies; the name of the schemes where the sites have been
identified, their approximate locations from Muzaffarabad and the preliminary
estimated installed capacities are given as under:
Table - 1.1: Capacities & Location of Six Hydropower Projects as per TOR
Sr. No.
Site
Estimated Capacity
as per TOR
Distance from
Muzaffarabad
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nagdar
Luat
Dowarian
Shounter
Janawahi
Taobut
18 MW
25 MW
35 MW
20 MW
05 MW
05 MW
92 km
95 km
105 km
160 km
175 km
185 km
LOCATION MAP
Luat
Dowarian
Nagdar
Shounter
Janawahi
Taobut
Nagdar and Luat sites are in the close vicinity of Line of Control (LOC) between
Pakistan and India, while the other sites are located at quite a distance to it.
Nagdar and Luat are located close to Keran village, which is a historical village
divided by the Line of Control.
1.2
SCOPE OF WORK
As per the Terms of Reference, the Consultants have to accomplish the following
main tasks during the study.
1.3
1.3.1
Location
The project area is located on the lower part of Nagdar nullah near Keran village
in Neelum valley approximately 92 km from Muzaffarabad. The project location is
shown in Dwg. No. 1-1 and accessibility to the project area is shown in
Dwg. No. 1-2.
The coordinates of weir and powerhouse site are listed below:
Site
Latitude
Longitude
Elevation
(m asl)
Weir
34 41 18
73 54 20
1950
Powerhouse
34 39 09
73 55 00
1480
The proposed project site has been identified in the lower 6 km stretch of Nagdar
nullah. The nullah has an estimated catchment area of about 91 km2, located
between elevations 1508 m asl and 4760.9 m asl in the North East of Neelum
village. Nagdar nullah has perennial flows arising out of the snow and glacial
melt.
1.3.2
Salient Features
Nagdar Hydropower Project was identified as run-off-river scheme with design
discharge available in summer months. The project would be connected to
National grid, therefore the project has been planned to its optimum capacity.
The weir intake has been proposed about 200 m downstream the confluence of
Shelyath Nar with Nagdar nullah and powerhouse would be underground near
Danjar village. The project layout has been proposed on the right bank of Nagdar
nullah with surface sandtrap, low pressure tunnel, surge tank, pressure shaft,
underground powerhouse and tailrace tunnel. The water would be discharged
into Danjar nullah, a small right bank tributary of Neelum River, located 3 km
downstream of Keran village.
The salient features of the project area are as under:
Design Capacity
35 MW
Design Discharge
9 m3/sec
Gross Head
470 m
146.05 GWh
Plant Factor
47.64%
3840 m
3.1 m
420 m
260 m
2.1 m
Tailrace Length
537 m
1.4
1.4.1
Route Distance
1.5
COMMUNICATION
Muzaffarabad city, being central place of AJ&K has good communication
services. There is postal and telegraph facilities. Telephone services for main
places of AJ&K, main towns / cities of down country and internet services are
available. Pakistan Television (PTV) and other regional channels can be seen
via satellite.
As regards communication services, the district of Neelum with Headquarter at
Authmuqam has postal and telephone services. The city is connected with
international direct dialing system.
1.6
1.7
PREVIOUS STUDIES
As stated earlier, Nagdar is one of the hydropower sites identified by a French
firm CFG in 1986. The Consultants received a copy of report from HEB, named
as Neelum valley Hydroelectric Development Program, Feasibility Report
prepared in February 1989.
The report covers four potential sites namely; Nagdar, Luat, Dowarian and Jagran
studied at identification level. Some preliminary site investigations like hydrologic
observations, field survey, geological mapping and laboratory testing were carried
out.
The Consultants reviewed the CFG report and observed the following:
The project location and project layout is not indicated on any map.
The location of weir and powerhouse is not described even in the text.
One general flow duration curve for tributaries of Neelum River was
prepared and included in the report. The basis of design discharge
selection is not mentioned.
The project cost was estimated as Rs. 430 million (~US $ 24.0 million)
to generate 10.7 MW. Estimated IRR = 19%.
The project layout with technically sound weir and powerhouse location;
All necessary field data has been collected and presented in this report.
For comparison purpose the salient features of Nagdar Hydropower Project are
compared as under:
As per
previous
study (CFG)
As per present
study by the
Consultant
Gross Head
310 m
470 m
Net Head
295 m
464 m
Design Discharge
4.5 m3/s
9 m3/s
Installed Capacity
18 MW
35 MW
2584 m
3840 m
Inside Diameter
2.5 m
3.1 m
Length of Penstock
528 m
680 m
71 GWh
127 GWh
24 GWh
19.05 GWh
95 GWh
146.05 GWh
Parameter
TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEYS
10
TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEYS
2.1
GENERAL
The availability of accurate survey data and maps in digital format is a prerequisite for project studies like planning and design of the scheme. The
Consultants, therefore, carried out the field topographic surveys in the areas of
interest to collect required field survey data in the digital format and then
processed the same with appropriate survey software for producing the computer
aided maps.
2.2
SCOPE OF WORK
The scope of work comprised of:
2.3
11
From Nausehri to Muzaffarabad, Pankot nullah is left tributary and Jhing da Katha,
Bheriwala Katha and Ghoriwala Katha are the right bank tributaries.
The main stream of Neelum River from Taobut to Dudhnial flows with average bed
gradient of 6 m / km. From Dudhnial to Nausehri, Neelum River flows with an
average bed gradient of 13 m / km. From Nausehri to Muzaffarabad, the average
bed gradient of Neelum River is 7.5 m / km.
2.4
2.5
Scale 1:250,000
43-F
Scale 1:50,000
43-F/14
12
2.5.1
Reference Grid
In order to start topographic field survey work, the reference grid of Survey of
Pakistan is required to be connected. But there is no standard bench mark
established by Survey of Pakistan in the vicinity of any of the proposed project
areas and other surroundings. Global Positioning System (GPS) has been used
to establish the northing and easting for the Horizontal Control. The ground
survey has been carried out with reference to these control points to prepare the
topographic features of Nagdar Hydropower Project.
2.5.2
Horizontal 2 mm + 2 ppm
Vertical 2 mm + 2 ppm
A list of permanent bench marks / control points is presented in Table - 2.1 and
Table - 2.2.
2.5.3
Horizontal Control
This has been done through a combination of conventional triangulation and
EDM traversing method supported by the use of GPS control points. All survey
work was conducted by having digital display infrared beam total station. The
triangulation network consists of well balanced quadrilaterals or center point
polygons and well balanced triangles.
13
The EDM traversing was in the closed loop form and all traversing lines were
measured two ways and mean value was used, provided two measurements
agree to 1:10,000. Horizontal angle measurement with maximum spread of
20 seconds has been used in computations.
2.5.4
Vertical Control
The mean sea level (msl) of Survey of Pakistan, cross checked by GPS, has
been taken as reference for the project sites. Standard bench marks were
established in the project area through double check leveling, using precise
leveling instruments. All necessary precautions and standard procedures which
are applicable to this class of survey have been adopted.
2.6
2.7
Quick bird images have been procured for both weir and powerhouse sites. The
SPOT-5 images have also been collected to cover the whole project area. An
overview map and digital elevation data, low resolution of the project area was
generated and made available for developing the alternative project layouts. The
base data for the overview satellite map are SRTM elevation data (nominal 90 m
pixel spacing) and SPOT-5 satellite images.
14
2.8
2.9
SOFTWARE
The following softwares have been used for image processing and GIS database
development.
Imagine 9.1
ER Mapper 7.1
ArcGIS 9.2
AutoCAD 2009
15
N1
Angle
(deg min sec)
235o-59-27
Distance
(m)
64.913
Easting
(m)
3289262.586
Northing
(m)
1171890.567
Elevation
(m asl)
1540.150
N2
212o-51-53
Station
N3
N4
247.321
3289128.376
1171682.829
1547.223
98.767
3289067.654
1171604.934
1547.223
315.783
3288841.626
1171384.283
1545.918
217 -56-16
225 -41-23
N5
230 -34-40
203.205
3288684.653
1171255.242
1532.994
N6
231o-36-18
167.154
3288553.647
1171151.425
1538.967
215.140
3288369.694
1171039.862
1542.928
186.600
3288199.581
1170963.174
1562.918
663.878
3287625.730
1170629.364
1558.639
N7
N8
N9
238 -45-53
245 -44-03
239 -48-47
N10
165 -35-32
330.424
3287707.948
1170309.333
1551.705
N11
137o-36-54
54.103
3287744.419
1170269.371
1552.705
170.054
3287867.427
1170151.950
1534.823
N12
N13
N14
133 -40-08
o
282 -20-143
86.876
3287782.558
1170170.524
1538.542
193.974
3287605.129
1170248.912
1561.305
293 -50-09
N15
298 -47-29
225.902
3287407.153
1170357.711
1561.044
N16
327o-23-49
82.189
3287362.868
1170426.949
1560.997
42.798
3287320.081
1170427.916
1562.959
210.414
3287117.828
1170485.947
1585.076
N17
N18
271 -17-41
286 -00-34
N19
270 -48-03
118.619
3286999.221
1170487.604
1595.407
N20
283o-02-00
97.443
3286904.288
1170509.579
1612.627
188.024
3286701.480
1170547.170
1635.789
377.310
3286370.732
1170689.763
1636.063
304.430
3286067.480
1170716.513
1680.574
N21
N22
N23
281 -31-57
292 -12-18
275 -02-28
o
N24
305 -46-15
41.195
3286034.056
1170740.593
1686.789
N25
213o-06-29
252.407
3285896.186
1170529.168
1683.138
N26
244o-03-02
N27
N28
141.561
3285768.897
1170467.221
1690.063
181.087
3285588.729
1170485.439
1702.808
315.003
3285359.166
1170701.141
1729.121
275 -46-26
313 -12-58
N29
293 -00-06
338.257
3285047.803
1170833.317
1763.670
N30
308o-07-51
216.100
3284842.420
1170994.535
1783.914
123.052
3284789.535
1171105.643
1793.638
90.222
3284710.376
1171062.348
1799.303
64.959
3284664.715
1171109.518
1804.308
N31
N32
N33
334 -32-48
241 -19-29
316 -33-56
16
N12 to N34
Easting
(m)
3287871.258
Northing
(m)
1170074.383
Elevation
(m asl)
1535.508
N35
3287857.173
1170008.073
1536.046
N36
3287796.022
1169917.419
1534.173
N37
3287684.912
1169844.141
1531.618
N38
3286936.057
1169164.366
1500.023
N39
3287126.183
1168686.923
1500.783
N40
3287124.748
1168594.963
1500.582
N41
3287159.791
1168390.050
1493.986
N42
3287095.375
1168310.758
1499.481
N43
3287033.262
1168242.357
1496.700
N44
3286840.816
1168197.302
1492.138
N45
3286576.904
1168263.940
1492.371
N46
3286384.318
1168263.900
1493.929
N47
3285642.679
1168224.095
1491.648
N48
3285358.645
1167819.789
1481.381
N49
3285306.192
1167489.472
1480.525
N50
3285125.600
1167462.695
1532.596
BM6
3285292.737
1167489.380
1479.145
BM7
3285240.218
1167452.561
1490.317
Station
17
18
3.1
INTRODUCTION
The project area is located near Neelum village about 92 km from Muzaffarabad
in the Neelum River valley. The project site is close to the Keran village, which is
a historical village divided on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC).
Nagdar nullah is the right bank tributary of Neelum River. The nullah confluence
with Neelum River is close to Keran village which is about 8 km from Authmuqam
and about 92 km from Muzaffarabad. The approximate travel time from
Muzaffarabad to Nagdar nullah is about 5 hours. The main road runs along the
right bank of Neelum River via Nausehri up to Taobut. The Line of Control is
quite close to the main road at Tithwal, Authmuqam and Keran villages.
The road from Keran village leads to Neelum village and then onwards to Nagdar
nullah. A jeepable road to Nagdar valley is available via Neelum village up to
3 km from the Neelum River confluence. Nagdar nullah is quite steep and a foot
track is available along the nullah upto the weir site.
3.2
19
20
The entire right bank of the nullah was viewed from the left bank road and it is
considered that the right bank is more stable for proposing the project layout. As
line of control is very close to Nagdar nullah, powerhouse is proposed near
Danjar village, on the right bank of Neelum River.
3.3
CLIMATE
The climate of the catchment is characterized by very cold snowy winter and
relatively pleasant summer. The high areas of the catchment are permanently
clad with snow and glaciers. Forest cover in the area extends up to an elevation
of about 3700 m (12,000 ft).
The climatic data in Neelum valley is very scarce. One station in Neelum valley
with limited climate record is at Dudhnial. The nearest station to project area with
long term record is located at Muzaffarabad.
The list of Climatological stations in the region is presented in Table - 3.1.
Table - 3.1: Long Term Climatic Stations in Jhelum River Basin
Station
Palak
Balakot
Garhi Duppata
Dudhnial
Muzaffarabad
Bagh
Sehr Kakota
Rawalakot
Kotli
Palandri
Mangla Dam
Rehman Bridge
Naran
Kallar
Jhangi
1768
1718
1602
1541
1534
1415
1386
1375
1255
1230
1221
1132
1118
945
921
The above table provides the mean annual rainfall data at various stations in
Jhelum River catchment. Dudhnial and Muzaffarabad are two stations which
represent the rainfall pattern in lower part of Neelum valley. The snowfall at
higher elevation is not included in the rainfall data.
21
3.3.1
Temperature
The one meteorological station with long record of temperature is located at
Muzaffarabad, at a distance of about 92 km from the project area. The data has
been collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department in order to get the
maximum and minimum temperatures on monthly and yearly basis.
The mean monthly temperature at Muzaffarabad varies from 9.2 C in January to
28.6 C in June and July, and the average yearly temperature varies from 18 C
to 24 C. Mean monthly temperature is graphically indicated in Figure - 3.2;
whereas, the mean annual temperatures are shown in the following Figure - 3.3.
22
January is the coldest month at the project site, when the temperature drops to
several degrees below zero. The highest temperatures are experienced in the
month of June.
3.3.2
Precipitation
Precipitation data of Muzaffarabad station was collected from Pakistan
Meteorological Department in order to get maximum, minimum and average
precipitation on monthly and yearly basis. Mean annual precipitation at
Muzaffarabad (1955-2004) is shown in the following Figure - 3.4.
2500
Rainfall (mm)
2000
1500
1000
1681
1734
1595
1476
2018
1317
1763
1094
1505
1718
1406
1720
1520
1455
1344
1384
1330
1271
1374
1198
1366
2078
1967
1753
1338
1218
1665
1459
1312
1331
1376
1844
1559
1306
1707
1830
1599
1815
1771
1804
1446
1546
1814
1370
1498
1427
970
1041
1573
1487
500
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
Year
23
24
3.4
HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS
In previous years during 1992 and 1993, a few discharge measurements were
performed on the Nagdar nullah. For the present study, a gauging station has
been installed recently by the Consultants near the weir. The discharge
measurements at this location of Nagdar nullah provide the basis for the
estimation of flows. This data needs to be correlated with long term gauging
station to prepare a flow series for estimation of power and energy. The
discharge data of the nearby hydrological stations having long term record was
collected and the synthetic flows have been derived for the project under study.
The location map of the gauging stations in northern part of Pakistan is presented
in Figure - 3.8. The list of gauging stations with period of record is mentioned in
Table - 3.2.
Table - 3.2: Hydrological Stations with Long Term Records
Location
Latitude
Longitude
Elevation
(m asl)
3422
7328
670
7278
1963-2006
Nausehri
34 23
7343
1030
6809
1990-00
Dudhnial
3442
74 7
1823
4905
1980-92
Naran
3527
7525
2341
1036
1960-2000
Thunian*
353530
751850
2150
219
July 94 to June 96
Kundal Shahi*
352722
751840
1360
430
July 94 to June 96
Sep 82 to Aug 84
Taobut*
353530
75820
2250
275
Jan 92 to June 95
Station / River
Muzaffarabad
Area
(km)
Period of
Record
25
Flow measurements have been recorded by the Surface Water Hydrology Project
on a few stations located on the main Neelum River.
This includes
Muzaffarabad, Dudhnial and Nausehri stations on Neelum River. Naran station is
located on Kunhar River where a long term daily flow data is available. At two
locations on Jagran River, flow measurements have been made for a few years
by the AJ&K Hydro Electric Board in collaboration with French Consultants.
The flows of Jagran River have been taken from the report Jagran-II Feasibility
Study published in March 1999. On Gagai nullah, the flow measurements have
been observed by Surface Water Hydrology Project, WAPDA and the daily flow
record is available for two years.
Jagran River at Kundal Shahi is the nearest station to the proposed project area,
where daily flow record is available for four years. Neelum River at Muzaffarabad
and Kunhar River at Naran stations have the longest period of recorded data.
At Dudhnial climate station, only rainfall data for a few years is available and
there is no record of snow fall near the project area, therefore estimation of flows
in Nagdar nullah can not be replied on limited rainfall data. The daily flow data of
Jagran River at Kundal Shahi or at Thunian is important for flow estimation at
Nagdar nullah in addition to limited data observation in the project area.
3.4.1
Specific Flows
(l/sec/km2)
1963-2006
337.6
46.2
Naran
1960-2000
48.0
46.3
Dudhnial
1980-92
259.2
52.8
Nusehri
1990-2000
306.0
44.9
Kundal Shahi
27.0
62.8
Thunian
1994-96
17.26
78.8
Gagai
1992-95
19.35
70.4
26
Sr. No.
Station
Muzaffarabad
Period of Record
The above table indicates that two long term stations at Muzaffarabad and Naran
have same specific flows of 46 l/sec/km2. Although Dudhnial and Nausehri
stations on Neelum River have less period of record; however, these stations also
have specific flows in the same range.
Jagran River at Kundal Shahi is the closest gauging station to the project area.
As Jagran River is the adjacent catchment to the Nagdar nullah; therefore, the
flows record at Kundal Shahi is important to be used for estimation of flows at
proposed weir site of Nagdar Hydropower Project.
Kundal Shahi station is preferred over Thunian station as the mean elevation of
the Nagdar catchment is close to that of Kundal Shahi as compared with the
Thunian station. Secondly, the length of data period at Kundal Shahi is more
than that available for Thunian.
3.4.1.1
3.5
27
With four year long daily flows record and similar mean elevation of the
catchment, Kundal Shahi station has been selected to be used as a reference
station for estimating the flows at Nagdar nullah. The flows at Kundal Shahi
would be extended by establishing a correlation with the long term gauging
station either Neelum River at Muzaffarabad or Kunhar River at Naran.
3.5.1
28
The comparison of specific flows of Neelum and Jagran Rivers is given in the
Figure - 3.10.
29
500
450
y = 0.6193x 1.1366
R2 = 0.8282
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.06193X1.1366
Putting the value of Muzaffarabad flows (x) in the above equation will give the
Kundal Shahi flows (y) for the same period. As the R2 is not very close to 1,
therefore, correlation of specific flows data of Kundal Shahi and Naran has been
checked.
3.5.2
30
Figure - 3.13: Specific Flows - Kunhar River at Naran and Jagran River at
Kundal Shahi 1982-84
FHC Consulting Engineers
31
For the period, July 1994 to June 1996, specific flows are plotted and the graph is
presented in Figure - 3.14.
During 1994-96, the difference of specific flows in summer months is less as
compared with 1982-84.
Figure - 3.14: Specific Flows Kunhar River at Naran and Jagran River at
Kundal Shahi 1994-96
The above graph indicates the pattern of specific flows which is more similar as
compared to the period 1982-84.
The specific flows of Kunhar River at Naran and Jagran River at Kundal Shahi
gauging stations have been plotted and are presented in Figure - 3.15.
32
Putting the specific flows of Kunhar River at Naran (x) in the above equation will
give the specific flow of the Jagran River at Kundal Shahi (y) for the same
period.
The above relation has been applied to Naran flow data and it was found that the
estimated flow values in summer months have better correlation.
In order to assess the low flows with better accuracy for a smaller catchment, the
same data has been used to have an equation having variable with power. The
relationship is plotted and is indicated in Figure 3.16.
The equation has been used to estimate the flows at Kundal Shahi as well as at
Nagdar during winter months and the estimated flows are found more realistic
with the observed values.
33
3.5.3
34
A bar chart showing the mean monthly flows of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi for
the year 1995 is shown in Figure - 3.18. The estimated mean flow is 27.8 m3/s
versus the observed flow of 28.6 m3/s.
35
3.6
3.6.1
Discharge in Nagdar
Nullah (m3/s)
Specific Flows
(l/s/km2)
13-10-1982
1.63
18.0
23-12-1982
1.55
17.1
10-01-1983
2.16
23.7
21-01-1983
1.46
16.0
11-02-1983
1.02
11.2
16-02-1983
1.15
12.6
07-03-1983
1.11
12.2
07-04-1983
2.32
25.5
16-04-1983
2.57
28.3
11-12-1992
1.34
14.7
30-12-1992
1.24
13.6
14-01-1993
1.33
14.6
17-01-1993
1.42
15.6
29-01-1993
1.44
15.8
36
Based on measured flows, gauge heights, survey of gauging cross section and
longitudinal profile, a rating curve has been developed which is presented in
Figure - 3.20.
37
Table - 3.5: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (May and June 2009)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/5/2009
1723.62
14.29
1/6/2009
1723.67
16.69
2/5/2009
1723.57
12.36
2/6/2009
1723.70
18.38
3/5/2009
1723.51
10.39
3/6/2009
1723.77
22.30
4/5/2009
1723.55
11.90
4/6/2009
1723.80
24.09
5/5/2009
1723.48
9.71
5/6/2009
1723.84
27.06
6/5/2009
1723.49
9.80
6/6/2009
1723.86
29.23
7/5/2009
1723.51
10.39
7/6/2009
1723.87
30.09
8/5/2009
1723.53
11.22
8/6/2009
1723.58
12.98
9/5/2009
1723.45
8.90
9/6/2009
1723.58
12.98
10/5/2009
1723.48
9.62
10/6/2009
1723.66
16.21
11/5/2009
1723.48
9.52
11/6/2009
1723.67
16.53
12/5/2009
1723.49
9.99
12/6/2009
1723.70
18.20
13/5/2009
1723.51
10.39
13/6/2009
1723.69
17.68
14/5/2009
1723.55
11.67
14/6/2009
1723.67
16.85
15/5/2009
1723.58
12.98
15/6/2009
1723.64
15.30
16/5/2009
1723.59
13.36
16/6/2009
1723.59
13.36
17/5/2009
1723.62
14.29
17/6/2009
1723.56
12.25
18/5/2009
1723.67
16.53
18/62009
1723.50
10.09
19/5/2009
1723.68
17.34
19/6/2009
1723.48
9.71
20/5/2009
1723.65
15.75
20/6/2009
1723.49
9.90
21/5/2009
1723.73
19.67
21/6/2009
1723.47
9.43
22/5/2009
1723.70
18.03
22/6/2009
1723.50
10.09
23/5/2009
1723.75
21.25
23/6/2009
1723.53
11.22
24/5/2009
1723.77
22.09
24/6/2009
1723.49
9.90
25/5/2009
1723.68
17.34
25/6/2009
1723.46
9.16
26/5/2009
1723.69
17.68
26/6/2009
1723.43
8.40
27/5/2009
1723.73
19.67
27/6/2009
1723.42
8.00
28/5/2009
1723.79
23.41
28/6/2009
1723.40
7.55
29/5/2009
1723.81
24.80
29/6/2009
1723.42
8.16
30/5/2009
1723.85
27.85
30/6/2009
1723.44
8.56
31/5/2009
1723.85
28.40
38
Table - 3.6: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (July and August 2009)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/7/2009
1723.58
12.98
1/8/2009
1723.42
8.08
2/7/2009
1723.59
13.23
2/8/2009
1723.46
9.16
3/7/2009
1723.59
13.23
3/8/2009
1723.49
9.90
4/7/2009
1723.62
14.57
4/8/2009
1723.43
8.40
5/7/2009
1723.56
12.01
5/8/2009
1723.42
8.00
6/7/2009
1723.53
11.01
6/8/2009
1723.42
8.08
7/7/2009
1723.50
10.29
7/8/1900
1723.41
7.85
8/7/2009
1723.48
9.71
8/8/2009
1723.39
7.33
9/7/2009
1723.49
9.80
9/8/2009
1723.38
7.26
10/7/2009
1723.50
10.09
10/8/2009
1723.37
6.99
11/7/2009
1723.51
10.59
11/8/1900
1723.40
7.62
12/7/2009
1723.49
9.99
12/8/1900
1723.42
8.16
13/7/2009
1723.47
9.34
13/8/2009
1723.46
9.07
14/7/2009
1723.46
9.07
14/8/2009
1723.49
9.99
15/7/2009
1723.45
8.90
15/8/2009
1723.53
11.12
16/7/2009
1723.46
9.16
16/8/2009
1723.51
10.49
17/7/2009
1723.49
9.90
17/8/2009
1723.46
9.16
18/72009
1723.49
9.99
18/8/2009
1723.38
7.26
19/7/2009
1723.44
8.48
19/8/2009
1723.40
7.70
20/7/2009
1723.42
8.00
20/8/2009
1723.31
5.82
21/7/2009
1723.42
8.00
21/8/2009
1723.30
5.70
22/7/2009
1723.42
8.08
22/8/2009
1723.29
5.49
23/7/2009
1723.44
8.56
23/8/2009
1723.28
5.43
24/7/2009
1723.40
7.55
24/8/2009
1723.27
5.28
25/7/2009
1723.42
8.16
25/8/2009
1723.27
5.28
26/7/2009
1723.46
9.07
26/8/2009
1723.27
5.23
27/7/2009
1723.50
10.29
27/8/2009
1723.26
5.13
28/7/2009
1723.53
11.01
28/8/2009
1723.27
5.18
29/7/2009
1723.53
11.12
29/8/2009
1723.26
5.08
30/7/2009
1723.51
10.49
30/8/2009
1723.25
4.98
31/7/2009
1723.46
9.16
31/8/2009
1723.26
5.13
39
Table - 3.7: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (September & October 2009)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/9/2009
1723.38
7.26
1/10/2009
1723.11
3.32
2/9/2009
1723.39
7.41
2/10/2009
1723.11
3.29
3/9/2009
1723.41
7.77
3/10/2009
1723.09
3.10
4/9/2009
1723.43
8.32
4/10/2009
1723.08
2.98
5/9/2009
1723.43
8.40
5/10/2009
1723.08
3.01
6/9/2009
1723.43
8.32
6/10/2009
1723.08
2.98
7/9/1900
1723.42
8.16
7/10/1900
1723.05
2.76
8/9/2009
1723.42
8.08
8/10/2009
1723.07
2.95
9/9/2009
1723.42
8.00
9/10/2009
1723.07
2.93
10/9/2009
1723.41
7.92
10/10/2009
1723.05
2.79
11/9/1900
1723.41
7.85
11/10/1900
1723.04
2.66
12/9/1900
1723.40
7.70
12/10/1900
1723.01
2.46
13/9/2009
1723.39
7.48
13/10/2009
1722.99
2.30
14/9/2009
1723.39
7.48
14/10/2009
1722.97
2.19
15/9/2009
1723.38
7.19
15/10/2009
1722.97
2.17
16/9/2009
1723.37
7.06
16/10/2009
1722.97
2.19
17/9/2009
1723.37
6.99
17/10/2009
1722.99
2.30
18/9/2009
1723.36
6.85
18/10/2009
1723.00
2.37
19/9/2009
1723.35
6.59
19/10/2009
1723.00
2.41
20/9/2009
1723.35
6.53
20/10/2009
1723.01
2.46
21/9/2009
1723.33
6.28
21/10/2009
1723.01
2.48
22/9/2009
1723.31
5.93
22/10/2009
1723.03
2.61
23/9/2009
1723.31
5.87
23/10/2009
1723.03
2.63
24/9/2009
1723.30
5.70
24/10/2009
1723.02
2.56
25/9/2009
1723.31
5.82
25/10/2009
1723.00
2.37
26/9/2009
1723.29
5.54
26/10/2009
1723.00
2.37
27/9/2009
1723.28
5.38
27/10/2009
1722.99
2.32
28/9/2009
1723.27
5.28
28/10/2009
1722.99
2.30
29/9/2009
1723.25
4.98
29/10/2009
1723.01
2.44
30/9/2009
1723.24
4.79
30/10/2009
1723.03
2.61
31/10/2009
1723.04
2.68
40
Table - 3.8: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (November & December 2009)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/11/2009
1723.04
2.68
1/12/2009
1723.03
2.63
2/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
2/12/2009
1723.03
2.61
3/11/2009
1723.04
2.68
3/12/2009
1723.04
2.66
4/11/2009
1723.05
2.73
4/12/2009
1723.05
2.73
5/11/2009
1723.05
2.73
5/12/2009
1723.05
2.73
6/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
6/12/2009
1723.05
2.76
7/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
7/12/2009
1723.05
2.73
8/11/2009
1723.04
2.68
8/12/2009
1723.04
2.71
9/11/2009
1723.03
2.63
9/12/2009
1723.04
2.68
10/11/2009
1723.05
2.76
10/12/2009
1723.04
2.66
11/11/2009
1723.05
2.73
11/12/2009
1723.03
2.63
12/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
12/12/2009
1723.03
2.61
13/11/2009
1723.04
2.68
13/12/2009
1723.03
2.61
14/11/2009
1723.02
2.56
14/12/2009
1723.03
2.61
15/11/2009
1723.03
2.58
15/12/2009
1723.03
2.58
16/11/2009
1723.03
2.61
16/12/2009
1723.02
2.51
17/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
17/12/2009
1723.01
2.48
18/11/2009
1723.02
2.53
18/12/2009
1723.02
2.51
19/11/2009
1723.03
2.58
19/12/2009
1723.01
2.46
20/11/2009
1723.02
2.53
20/12/2009
1723.01
2.44
21/11/2009
1723.04
2.66
21/12/2009
1723.01
2.44
22/11/2009
1723.02
2.51
22/12/2009
1723.00
2.39
23/11/2009
1723.02
2.51
23/12/2009
1723.00
2.39
24/11/2009
1723.02
2.53
24/12/2009
1723.01
2.46
25/11/2009
1723.03
2.58
25/12/2009
1723.00
2.37
26/11/2009
1723.03
2.58
26/12/2009
1722.99
2.32
27/11/2009
1723.02
2.56
27/12/2009
1722.99
2.30
28/11/2009
1723.02
2.56
28/12/2009
1722.99
2.32
29/11/2009
1723.02
2.56
29/12/2009
1723.00
2.39
30/11/2009
1723.02
2.56
30/12/2009
1723.01
2.46
31/12/2009
1723.01
2.48
41
Table - 3.9: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (January and February 2010)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/1/2010
1722.99
2.32
1/2/2010
1723.03
2.58
2/1/2010
1722.99
2.32
2/2/2010
1723.03
2.58
3/1/2010
1722.99
2.30
3/2/2010
1723.02
2.53
4/1/2010
1722.97
2.19
4/2/2010
1723.01
2.46
5/1/2010
1722.97
2.19
5/2/2010
1723.01
2.46
6/1/2010
1722.98
2.23
6/2/2010
1723.01
2.44
7/1/2010
1722.97
2.17
7/2/2010
1723.00
2.39
8/1/2010
1722.97
2.19
8/2/2010
1723.00
2.39
9/1/2010
1722.96
2.11
9/2/2010
1723.00
2.39
10/1/2010
1722.96
2.13
10/2/2010
1723.00
2.37
11/1/2010
1722.97
2.17
11/2/2010
1722.99
2.34
12/1/2010
1722.98
2.23
12/2/2010
1722.99
2.32
13/1/2010
1722.98
2.23
13/2/2010
1722.99
2.30
14/1/2010
1722.98
2.25
14/2/2010
1722.97
2.19
15/1/2010
1722.99
2.30
15/2/2010
1722.96
2.13
16/1/2010
1722.99
2.32
16/2/2010
1722.96
2.13
17/1/2010
1723.00
2.37
17/2/2010
1722.96
2.13
18/1/2010
1723.00
2.37
18/2/2010
1722.95
2.07
19/1/2010
1723.00
2.41
19/2/2010
1722.95
2.07
20/1/2010
1723.00
2.39
20/2/2010
1722.96
2.11
21/1/2010
1723.00
2.39
21/2/2010
1722.96
2.11
22/1/2010
1723.01
2.46
22/2/2010
1722.94
2.01
23/1/2010
1723.02
2.51
23/2/2010
1722.93
1.95
24/1/2010
1723.02
2.56
24/2/2010
1722.92
1.89
25/1/2010
1723.02
2.56
25/2/2010
1722.90
1.77
26/1/2010
1723.01
2.46
26/2/2010
1722.89
1.74
27/1/2010
1723.01
2.46
27/2/2010
1723.21
4.39
28/1/2010
1723.02
2.51
28/2/2010
1723.24
4.79
29/1/2010
1723.02
2.51
30/1/2010
1723.03
2.58
31/1/2010
1723.03
2.58
42
Table - 3.10: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (March and April 2010)
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
Date
Gauge
Height
(m asl)
Flow
m3/sec
1/3/2010
1723.21
4.39
1/4/2010
1723.30
5.70
2/3/2010
1723.21
4.39
2/4/2010
1723.30
5.70
3/3/2010
1723.21
4.39
3/4/2010
1723.30
5.70
4/3/2010
1723.20
4.31
4/4/2010
1723.31
5.87
5/3/2010
1723.20
4.31
5/4/2010
1723.31
5.87
6/3/2010
1722.89
1.74
6/4/2010
1723.31
5.93
7/3/2010
1722.89
1.74
7/4/2010
1723.32
5.99
8/3/2010
1722.90
1.77
8/4/2010
1723.32
6.10
9/3/2010
1722.89
1.75
9/4/2010
1723.33
6.22
10/3/2010
1722.90
1.80
10/4/2010
1723.35
6.59
11/3/2010
1722.91
1.82
11/4/2010
1723.35
6.59
12/3/2010
1722.90
1.79
12/4/2010
1723.35
6.66
13/3/2010
1722.90
1.79
13/4/2010
1723.36
6.72
14/3/2010
1722.90
1.79
14/4/2010
1723.37
6.99
15/3/2010
1722.90
1.79
15/4/2010
1723.37
6.99
16/3/2010
1722.90
1.77
16/4/2010
1723.37
7.06
17/3/2010
1722.89
1.75
17/4/2010
1723.37
7.06
18/3/2010
1722.89
1.75
18/4/2010
1723.39
7.33
19/3/2010
1722.89
1.74
19/4/2010
1723.39
7.41
20/3/2010
1723.22
4.52
20/4/2010
1723.39
7.41
21/3/2010
1723.22
4.52
21/4/2010
1723.40
7.70
22/3/2010
1723.22
4.52
22/4/2010
1723.40
7.62
23/3/2010
1723.22
4.57
23/4/2010
1723.42
8.16
24/3/2010
1723.23
4.61
24/4/2010
1723.43
8.32
25/3/2010
1723.23
4.66
25/4/2010
1723.43
8.40
26/3/2010
1723.23
4.66
26/4/2010
1723.45
8.73
27/3/2010
1723.24
4.75
27/4/2010
1723.46
9.07
28/3/2010
1723.25
4.89
28/4/2010
1723.47
9.34
29/3/2010
1723.27
5.18
29/4/2010
1723.47
9.43
30/3/2010
1723.28
5.33
30/4/2010
1723.48
9.62
31/3/2010
1723.30
5.70
43
The monthly flows at Nagdar nullah have been estimated from a series of flows at
Naran.
The monthly flows at Nagdar nullah is presented in Figure - 3.21.
44
3.6.2
Estimated
(m3/s)
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
5.44
Measured
(m3/s)
2.35
2.39
3.37
7.21
15.50
14.68
10.06
7.27
6.9
2.61
2.62
2.54
6.46
45
Remarks
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
Observed Data
3.7
Figure - 3.23: Flow Duration Curve for Average Year Nagdar Nullah
Table - 3.12: Flow Duration Values Nagdar Nullah
55
Flow
(m3/sec)
1.89
16.13
60
1.64
10
13.90
65
1.45
15
12.23
70
1.29
20
10.42
75
1.20
25
8.77
80
1.12
30
7.49
85
1.03
35
6.28
90
0.93
40
5.15
95
0.79
45
4.00
100
0.29
50
2.59
Mean
5.44
0.1
Flow
(m3/sec)
22.92
Time (%)
46
Time (%)
Figure - 3.24: Flow Duration Curve for Dry Year Nagdar Nullah
Figure - 3.25: Flow Duration Curve for Wet Year Nagdar Nullah
47
3.8
Month
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.56
1.18
1.33
0.95
0.88
1.03
0.94
0.96
0.76
1.32
1.31
1.13
0.92
1.43
1.11
0.94
1.15
1.29
1.17
1.25
1.43
1.17
0.91
1.11
1.62
0.83
1.71
1.50
1.14
0.98
0.87
1.23
1.00
1.06
1.04
1.54
1.70
1.17
1.29
1.80
1.23
1.13
1.27
1.35
1.13
0.97
1.22
0.85
0.70
1.22
1.62
1.05
2.81
1.70
1.31
1.66
1.70
1.32
1.45
1.78
1.66
3.00
2.12
2.54
2.07
2.47
2.44
1.71
1.64
2.11
1.57
2.58
1.64
1.05
1.61
1.50
2.11
1.67
4.12
3.14
3.83
4.00
4.08
2.56
4.07
3.92
4.27
5.14
5.79
5.86
3.67
7.22
5.03
3.84
3.53
5.07
4.74
5.44
5.65
5.39
3.42
3.12
3.68
4.98
8.50
6.40
7.73
8.02
9.81
8.64
7.98
9.01
8.07
10.17
11.96
10.05
9.19
14.44
8.54
11.59
9.97
8.73
11.05
8.02
11.12
14.75
7.20
6.09
9.28
8.28
12.32
12.74
12.13
13.16
12.83
17.30
18.17
14.73
15.41
16.01
12.99
11.62
19.74
18.33
11.00
13.22
11.96
11.78
15.27
14.31
15.66
13.70
11.83
12.85
14.77
8.79
14.68
14.82
14.59
13.79
18.09
20.95
15.96
17.87
16.18
19.23
10.53
8.90
17.41
14.83
13.24
12.47
14.35
12.69
13.18
17.07
14.10
12.92
13.01
15.08
9.65
9.74
9.01
8.92
9.05
9.04
11.76
11.33
10.68
10.91
10.86
11.31
8.44
7.24
9.78
8.35
7.67
9.01
9.17
7.29
8.10
8.69
8.18
7.91
7.58
11.63
7.04
7.62
5.69
6.19
5.47
5.10
6.54
6.70
6.67
5.93
6.25
5.67
5.80
4.37
6.07
5.82
4.39
5.71
5.82
5.02
4.37
5.20
5.15
3.99
4.24
6.24
4.77
4.28
1.55
1.70
1.45
1.38
1.82
1.97
1.89
1.90
1.83
1.86
1.69
1.02
1.82
1.65
1.32
1.54
1.78
1.53
1.54
1.55
1.90
1.43
1.32
1.60
1.13
1.56
1.07
0.98
0.92
1.04
1.02
1.11
1.04
1.00
1.25
1.49
1.14
0.79
1.31
1.02
0.91
1.13
1.26
1.22
1.30
1.06
1.07
0.88
1.27
1.22
0.76
0.91
1.05
1.06
0.95
1.15
0.95
0.91
0.88
0.77
1.19
1.18
1.03
0.81
1.18
0.96
0.81
1.08
1.30
1.06
1.21
1.50
1.51
1.41
1.42
1.48
0.72
0.75
48
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3.9
0.82
1.04
0.63
0.89
0.99
0.42
1.18
1.19
1.18
1.74
0.90
1.08
0.44
0.93
0.83
1.03
1.24
0.60
1.12
0.85
0.33
1.18
1.24
1.19
1.34
0.77
1.24
0.55
0.73
1.04
1.24
1.60
0.92
2.04
1.16
0.44
1.71
0.78
1.12
1.33
0.68
1.15
0.33
0.56
1.33
3.65
3.37
6.09
4.07
3.61
4.74
3.14
2.36
5.08
3.78
3.30
2.30
1.38
3.98
6.50
8.53
7.19
11.83
9.31
15.59
9.05
8.87
10.78
9.36
9.09
9.50
6.53
6.91
15.72
15.44
14.36
11.87
14.14
15.83
13.69
16.11
16.91
15.87
10.72
13.30
17.66
11.37
9.51
15.18
11.67
18.59
15.36
14.32
13.63
13.60
18.32
18.90
15.68
17.31
16.68
17.94
11.78
12.82
10.50
11.09
11.06
11.99
7.09
10.02
8.72
13.75
12.07
8.15
8.68
9.73
12.50
6.17
7.62
6.54
8.66
6.16
7.10
4.21
5.67
6.03
7.50
9.23
5.48
6.02
5.80
6.19
4.05
4.52
5.42
5.49
1.82
1.83
1.08
1.95
1.55
2.19
3.29
3.58
2.30
1.93
2.29
1.44
1.35
1.81
2.09
1.09
1.11
0.81
1.22
1.39
1.55
1.70
1.89
2.48
0.88
1.64
1.02
1.04
1.35
1.39
ESTIMATION OF FLOODS
As mentioned earlier the derived flows from three sites, i.e., Nausehri, Dudhnial
and Muzaffarabad show almost same behaviour in low flow period that is 50% to
100% of the time. As far as high flow period is concerned, a study was made by
comparing specific discharges of Jagran River having the same topography as
that of Nagdar with Muzaffarabad flows selecting the same period, i.e.,
(1982-1984) of available data of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi.
It was observed that specific discharges of river have almost double increasing
trend during high flow period, i.e., July and August as reflected from Table - 3.14
given below.
Therefore, floods achieved in different return periods from different methods have
been enhanced in the light of study.
Table - 3.14: Ratio of Specific Discharge (l/s/km2) at Jagran and
Muzaffarabad of High Flow Period
Years
Months
Ratio
1983
Jul
2.4
Aug
Jul
1.9
Aug
1.6
Average
1.975
1984
49
0.99
0.78
0.73
0.96
0.61
1.26
1.35
1.27
2.05
1.13
1.36
0.67
0.97
0.93
1.14
3.9.1
Lower Limit
33.1
23.5
53.3
35.0
10
67.2
42.1
20
80.7
48.7
50
98.2
57.3
100
111.4
63.6
1000
154.9
84.6
50
3.9.2
51
3.9.3
52
3.9.4
Floods using
Gumble MOM
(m3/s)
33.1
53.3
67.2
80.7
98.2
111.4
154.9
3.10
3.10.1
Average
Floods
(m3/s)
35
52
64
87
105
122
179
510.3
No sediment sampling measurements were carried out at the proposed weir site
of Nagdar nullah. However, the long term data of recorded sediments is available
at Nausehri hydrological station which is located on the main river and is about
fifty (50) km downstream of confluence of Nagdar nullah and Neelum River.
In addition to this, the sediment data is also available at different locations, i.e.,
Dudhnial and Muzaffarabad hydrological stations. As Nausehri station is the
nearest downstream station of the Nagdar nullah, therefore sediment transport
data of this station has been considered to estimate suspended and bed load at
weir site of Nagdar nullah.
The relationship achieved between flows and sediment concentration in ppm from
the above data has been applied to get suspended sediment load at Nagdar
nullah.
53
3.10.2
54
Sediment load at the weir site of nullah was calculated from the available
sediment data and the detail is as under:
Average flow (1991-2005) at Nausehri = 289.2 m3/s
Average ppm (1991-2005) at Nausehri = 436
Suspended Sediment Load (Tons/day at Nausehri = 12017
Suspended Annual Sediment Load at Nausehri = 4.38 MST
Therefore, the Annual Sediment Load at Nagdar = 0.0586 MST
3.10.3
3.10.4
Sand
13%
Silt
64%
Clay
23 %
From above it can be assessed that at the project site sand exists in a little
quantity while silt and clay exists comparatively in excess amount.
It is recommended to take sediment measurements at the proposed site regularly
to strengthen this estimate and take precautionary measures by arranging
sandtrap.
55
Date
Sand %
Silt%
Clay%
1992
02.01.92
08.01.92
16.01.92
19.01.92
26.01.92
08.02.92
15.02.92
20.02.92
28.02.92
01.03.92
08.03.92
10.03.92
17.03.92
25.03.92
02.04.92
10.04.92
08.05.92
15.05.92
21.05.92
10.06.92
16.06.92
23.06.92
01.07.92
16.07.92
23.07.92
25.07.92
28.07.92
30.07.92
02.08.92
06.08.92
21.10.92
18.02.93
28.02.93
05.03.93
10.03.93
03.04.93
21.04.93
21.05.93
30.05.93
09.06.93
21.06.93
28.06.93
09.07.93
13.07.93
17.07.93
18.08.93
26.08.93
1
54
9
4
11
2
3
15
3
1
4
6
14
11
12
19
15
10
1
4
6
5
5
9
16
2
4
17
15
8
3
3
4
15
27
3
3
6
20
34
12
10
19
22
5
12
27
59
34
82
43
37
44
79
59
70
60
75
77
41
42
78
30
61
80
62
86
83
84
78
75
40
80
81
65
57
81
79
73
64
68
67
77
83
76
58
43
67
61
63
56
83
78
62
40
12
9
53
52
54
18
26
27
39
21
17
45
47
10
51
24
10
37
10
11
11
17
16
44
18
15
18
28
11
18
24
32
17
6
20
14
18
22
23
21
29
18
22
12
10
11
1993
56
Year
1994
1995
1996
Date
Sand %
Silt%
Clay%
07.09.93
11.09.93
12.09.93
16.09.93
30.09.93
04.10.93
07.10.93
16.10.93
08.11.93
01.12.93
11.12.93
17.12.93
30.03.94
07.05.94
20.05.94
08.06.94
23.07.94
10.08.94
08.09.94
26.09.94
14.10.94
28.10.94
18.11.94
28.11.94
11.12.94
29.04.95
05.05.95
08.06.95
11.07.95
25.07.95
02.08.95
12.08.95
19.08.95
05.09.95
12.09.95
19.09.95
26.09.95
12.10.95
14.10.95
18.10.95
07.04.96
16.04.96
23.04.96
23.05.96
03.06.96
11.06.96
13.08.96
15
10
20
4
6
5
5
9
26
2
4
4
22
23
15
2
4
7
22
11
9
8
8
28
7
28
11
45
37
12
6
58
21
26
2
9
4
6
7
4
10
52
24
24
25
49
17
13.45
Sand%
61
80
49
86
83
84
78
75
54
80
81
82
44
66
68
88
71
73
64
58
63
74
48
47
66
53
65
40
43
60
72
36
61
61
53
56
62
66
67
47
75
41
61
55
60
40
48
64.11
Silt%
24
10
31
10
11
11
17
16
20
18
15
14
34
11
17
10
25
20
14
31
28
18
44
25
27
19
24
15
20
28
22
6
18
13
45
35
34
28
26
49
15
7
15
21
15
11
35
22.45
Clay%
Average
57
58
4.1
INTRODUCTION
The proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project has been identified on Nagdar nullah
which is a right bank tributary of Neelum River in the Azad State of Jammu
& Kashmir (AJ&K).
On the basis of geological studies, geotechnical and rock mass assessment; the
proposed scheme with headrace tunnel and underground powerhouse has been
finally recommended for further geological and geotechnical studies.
The layout of the selected scheme is given in Dwg. No. 5-2. The weir site has
been proposed about 200 m downstream of the confluence of Nagdar nullah with
Shelyath Nar at an elevation of 1956 m asl, in a narrow gorge where the rocks of
metamorphic origin comprising mainly of the granitic schists are exposed.
A headrace tunnel about 3.84 km long shall be driven through metamorphic rocks
comprising of schists, phyllites and granitic gneiss with the intrusions of granite
and granodiorites.
Powerhouse cavern structure shall be founded on rock comprising of granitic
gneiss. The engineering geological and structural mapping has been carried out
at the weir site, connecting channel, desander / sandtrap, inlet and outlet tunnel
portals to establish the impact of structural discontinuities and the defects (like
jointing, faulting, shear zones, etc.).
For these engineering structural
components, geological mapping has been carried out on the topographic maps
especially prepared for this purpose on scale 1:1,000 and on satellite imageries
with overlying DEM (digital elevation model) obtained from SUPARCO.
This report is based on the surface geological mapping carried out in the
proposed project area, and the laboratory test results available until now, for the
evaluation and calculation of the geotechnical parameters. These will be further
reformed on the availability of drilling and laboratory test data.
The detail geotechnical site investigation programme including the borehole
drilling, test pitting, etc. has been prepared by the Consultants and the contract
has been awarded to the contractor by the Client.
Regional geology has been described in the beginning of the chapter, whereby its
impact on proposed structures of the Nagdar Hydropower Project has also been
discussed.
59
4.2
GEOMORPHOLOGY
4.2.1
Topography
Nagdar nullah passes through a narrow gorge at the proposed weir site. The
nullah descends from the mountainous peak at EI. 4714 m asl. The nullah along
its length has a few tributaries joining in from either bank. The elevation at its
confluence with Neelum River is 1508 m asl. Generally, the ground slopes on
either bank of nullah are very steep.
Further, the slopes are generally covered with thick vegetation and at many
locations have enough places to support the accumulation of angular boulders
and gravel along with the soil cover.
4.2.2
Hydrology
Nagdar nullah has about 91 km2 of catchment area at its confluence with Neelum
River. The mean monthly flow ranges between 1.07 to 14.68 m/sec. The design
discharge for the scheme is considered to be 9 m/sec.
4.2.3
Drainage Pattern
The drainage pattern of the area covered by the proposed Nagdar Hydropower
Project is the combination of dendritic and trellis patterns.
4.2.4
Terraces
The terraces are well stratified and their fragment range from clay, silt and sand
to gravel and cobbles (ABGM). These gravel and cobbles are angular to
sub-rounded, loose to semi compact and hard.
4.2.5
4.3
4.3.1
Geological Setting
The major Himalayan tectonic units are well exposed along the relatively
accessible Neelum valley. These are the result of collision between the
Eurasian (N) and Indian (S) plates.
60
In the Northern Pakistan five principal fault zones have been recognised as
indicated in Figure - 4.1; the Northern Suture (NS) or Main Karakoram Thrust
(MKT), the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) or Indus Suture (IS), the Main Central
Thrust (MCT), the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Frontal Thrust
(MFT) or Salt Range Thrust (SRT). These fault zones generally trend E-W,
dividing the Himalayan orogenic belt in the five main tectonic zones. The Asian
Plate (AP), the Kohistan Island Arc (KIA), the Higher Himalayan Crystalline Unit
(HHC), the Lesser Himalayan Crystalline Unit (LHC) and the Sub-Himalayan
Unit (SH).
The East - West trend of the fault zones is disturbed locally by the two tectonic
semi-windows, the Nanga Parbat Syntaxis (NPS) and the Hazara Kashmir
Syntaxis (HKS). The area connecting these two syntaxes including Nagdar
Hydropower project area is being affected by an exceptional rate of uplift,
presently reaching 7 mm/year. Many of these tectonic units are encountered in a
SW - NE traverse along the Neelum valley. The MBT which separates the SH
from the LHC lies near the bridge of Nausehri, about 40 km NE of Muzaffarabad.
Near the village of Luat, approximately 100 km from Muzaffarabad on Neelum
valley road, the MCT separates the LHC to the south from the HHC, which
extends north and east to the village of Kel. These tectonic units share the same
stratigraphic features, but differ in their tectono-metamorphic evolution.
Metamorphic grade and ductile deformation increase from the youngest and
lower most unit, i.e., Sub-Himalayas; to the oldest and upper most unit, i.e.,
Higher Himalayas.
4.3.2
Lithostratigraphy
The Crystalline rocks outcropping in the Neelum valley are subdivided into three
main lithostratigraphic units, the Precambrian Naril Group, the Precambrian
Kundal Shahi Group and the Upper Paleozoic to Mesozoic Surgun Group as
presented in Figure - 4.2.
The details are given below:
Naril Group
Surgun Group
Himalayan Cover
All the above mentioned groups are intruded by meta-dolerites and amphibolites,
collectively called metabasites. All the lithostratigraphic units occur both in the
LHC and HHC - and have undergone variable grade of metamorphism.
61
4.3.3
Naril Group
The granulitic gneisses of the Naril Group mainly outcrop in two separated areas;
one north of the Richmohri Fault (RF) and the other in Chatthewala, Gumot and
Naril areas. These gneisses are acid granulitic whitish banded rocks containing
quartz, feldspar, garnet and biotite. The contact between the Naril and Kundal
Shahi groups is sharp and is interpreted as an old unconformity folded during the
strong Himalayan deformation.
The Naril group has been intruded by dolerites and now metamorphosed to
amphibolites. In certain cases the amphibolites grade into eclogites. The
granulitic gneisses of the Naril Group are intruded by the Mansehra type
leucogranites of Cambrian age.
4.3.4
4.3.5
62
4.3.6
Metamorphic Evolution
Rocks forming the Naril Group, the Kundal Shahi Group and Surgun Group were
deformed and metamorphosed during the Tertiary Himalayan events.
of
The calculated rate of uplift for the period between the Upper Cretaceous and the
lower Miocene is of the order of 1 mm/yr, a value which is in agreement with the
general evolution of the Himalayan Chain.
4.3.7
Tectonic Evolution
The deformation history of the Neelum valley rocks is strongly related to the plate
tectonic model describing the progressive convergence of the Indian and
Eurasian Plates, and with the described metamorphic evolution.
In Pakistan, the first manifestation of the N-S convergence between the two
plates was the southward to south-eastward over thrusting (more than 150 km) of
the Kohistan Island Arc over the northern margin of the Indian continent along the
MMT.
The early thrusting probably occurred between the Cretaceous and the Eocene at
the latest. During the same period, rocks of the Neelum valley suffered
compressive and shearing stress associated with the progressive development of
the Himalayan metamorphism.
63
4.4
SITE GEOLOGY
The intake area includes weir site, desander / sandtrap, diversion tunnel, and
intake power tunnel, coffer dams located upstream and downstream of weir site.
The outlet area includes surge shaft, pressure shaft, cavern powerhouse, and
tailrace channels and switchyards areas. The surface geological mapping
covering all the above mentioned areas has been carried out by the Consultants
on scale 1:1,000; using the satellite imageries of 2.5 m resolution by preparing
working sheets for field work. These imageries facilitated the mapping of each
soil and rock unit exactly to its existence on the ground. Maps and cross-sections
produced in this report are produced on the appropriate scales presented in
Dwg. No. 4-1 to Dwg. No. 4-7.
4.4.1
Lithological Units
4.4.1.1
Soil Units
The recent deposits are the most widespread soil units in the project area,
covering the bedrock, slopes with variables thickness 2 to 20 m. Terrace
deposits include mixtures of clay, silt, sand with gravel and boulders in various
proportions.
4.4.1.2
ABGM
Most of the slopes are covered by material comprising of angular boulders, gravel
with sand and appreciable amount of fines. These material are mostly of glacial
and talus origin.
4.4.1.3
RBGM
It consist of alluvial material having rounded to sub-rounded loose to semi
compact boulders and gravel with sand and appreciable amount of fines. These
are found upstream of the proposed weir site in the form of terraces as well as in
the proposed tailrace area.
4.4.1.4
ABG
Overburden material comprising mainly of large sized boulders and gravel with
minor amount of fines. These are found at the base of slopes.
4.4.1.5
RBG
Alluvial material deposited by streams comprising of rounded to sub-rounded
boulders and gravel with little amount of finer particles.
64
4.4.2
Rock Units
The rocks exposed in the project area are mainly metamorphic in origin,
comprising mainly of schists, phyllites and gneiss. Igneous intrusions of granites
and granodiorites are quite common, particularly in the powerhouse area. The
detail of each rock unit exposed in the proposed project area of Nagdar
Hydropower scheme is given in the following paragraphs.
4.4.2.1
Schists
Schists are exposed at both banks of the Nagdar nullah where weir site is
proposed. The diversion tunnel and, headrace intake portal of the proposed
scheme are also proposed in the Schist. These are light grey in colour, fine to
medium grained, moderately to highly weathered, and moderately to closely
jointed. The mineral assemblage includes biotite, white mica, quartz, garnet,
chlorite and epidote.
4.4.2.2
Gneiss
It is dirty white to whitish grey on the weathered surface. Light coloured bands
alternate with the dark bands which exists on fresh surface. The flaky minerals
represent preferred orientation. The rock is medium to coarse grained and
sparsely jointed. Numerous granitic veins can be seen intruding the adjacent
schistosed rocks. Small pegmatitic dykes are found within the gneissosed
granite.
Its mineralogical formation consists of the granular aggregate quartz, feldspar,
muscovite, biotite, and also accessory tourmaline, garnet, magnetite and apatite.
Gneiss has less mica, more quartz and higher strength.
4.4.2.3
Granite
It is light grey to brownish. The fresh exposures of the rock show whitish grey
colour. However, close examination shows brownish black biotite specks in
whitish grey background. At some places black tourmaline is also found in the
granite.
The thermal effects are best preserved at the contact of Neelum granite with
Tunnel (Kundal Shahi - Nagdar garnet mica schist) at Rampara where a contract
aureaole shows the development of three grades of thermal metamorphism from
schist to the chilled granite margin, biotite hornfels, andalusite hornfels and
silliminite hornfels.
65
4.5
4.5.1
66
ENW
ESE
WNE
WSW
Dip
Directi
on
(DD)
NE
47
47
40
SE
120
120
75
SE
92
92
N57W
303
60
NE
33
33
N85E
85
38
NW
355
355
N32E
32
42
SE
122
122
N30W
330
71
NE
60
60
N88W
272
72
SW
182
182
N70E
70
77
NW
340
340
10
N44W
316
35
NE
46
46
11
N88W
272
72
SW
182
182
12
N32E
32
42
SE
122
122
13
N42W
318
31
NE
48
48
14
N82E
82
40
NW
352
352
15
N35E
35
45
SE
125
125
16
N30E
30
70
NW
300
300
17
N88W
272
70
SW
182
182
18
N10W
350
80
NE
80
80
19
N65W
295
32
NE
25
25
20
N88W
272
75
SW
182
182
21
N15W
345
80
NE
75
75
22
N25W
335
80
NE
65
65
23
N70E
70
77
NW
340
340
24
N57W
303
60
NE
33
33
Sr.
No.
Strike
Strike
(Azimuth)
Dip
Dip
Sense
N43W
317
32
N30E
30
N2E
Options
67
Remarks
POWER
HOUSE
AREA IN
GRANITIC
GNEISS
ACCESS
TUNNEL
AREA IN
GRANITIC
GNEISS
25
N30E
30
40
SE
120
120
26
N88W
272
75
SW
182
182
27
N7W
353
60
NE
83
83
28
N85E
85
38
NW
355
355
29
N32E
32
42
SE
122
122
30
N60E
60
52
SE
150
150
31
N30E
30
54
SE
120
120
32
N35E
35
60
SE
125
125
33
N60E
60
54
SE
150
150
34
N25E
25
60
SE
115
115
35
N25W
335
70
NE
65
65
36
N57E
57
69
SE
147
147
37
N55E
55
66
SE
145
145
38
N68E
68
41
SE
158
158
39
N50E
50
43
SE
140
140
40
N45E
45
45
SE
135
135
41
N52E
52
67
SE
142
142
WEIR SITE
IN SCHIST
Two methods, i.e., strike rose diagram and stereographic projection of poles were
employed for plotting. The Figure - 4.3 to 4.5 shows the Rose Diagrams and
Composite Pole Plots at different areas of the proposed project sites.
68
69
70
71
Three major and two minor discontinuity sets can be identified as under:
Strike
Dip
J1 N30o E
40o SE
J2 N 57o W
60o NE
J3 EW
72o S
Minor Sets
4.5.2
J4 N85o E
80o SE
J5 N25o W
80o NE
Drilling
The main objective of borehole drilling is to determine the nature and engineering
characteristic of soil / rock units encountered at each structure of the proposed
Nagdar Hydropower Project and to observe the rock conditions at depth, to find
out the different strata and determine depth of bedrock to perform in - situ
permeability / water pressure test (Lugeon test) and to obtain the disturbed and
undisturbed samples.
The total drilling to be accomplished for the subsurface exploration programme is
215 m in seven (7) boreholes. Out of these two (02) boreholes were proposed at
weir site, one at headrace tunnel inlet portal, one at surge tank, one at
powerhouse site, one at access tunnel and one at tailrace. The results of drilling
will be of prime importance for the detail design of the structures.
4.5.3
Test Pits
A total of four (4) test pits were proposed by the Consultants in the overburden at
locations selected for placing the scheme structures. Test pits shall also be
excavated in the identified borrow areas to collect samples and then testing them
in the laboratory to check their suitability for use as the construction material.
The results of logging of each pit along with the in - situ field density tests in the
pits and various laboratory tests on samples will be the prime importance for the
detail design of the structures.
72
4.5.4
Laboratory Testing
The main objective of rock / material testing is to analyse the samples and use
their results to evaluate the geotechnical engineering design parameters in the
feasibility study.
The laboratory tests to be performed on disturbed and undisturbed samples
obtained from the site exploratory works include:
4.6
Unconfined Compression
Specific Gravity
Modulus of Deformation
Poissons Ratio
Friction Coefficient
Petrographic Analysis
SEISMICTY
The Northern Area of Pakistan including Azad Jammu & Kashmir are extensive
zones of high seismicity and contain several seismo-tectonic features generated
by an integrated network of active faults.
73
4.6.1
4.6.2
74
4.6.3
4.6.4
75
4.7
76
77
The Nagdar Hydropower Project is located on the Neelum River tributary of the
Neelum River in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K). Figure - 4.6 shows the
geographical situation of Northern Pakistan. The red rectangle marks the
investigated area and pink circle project site. The dam site is taken as reference
point.
78
4.8
DEAGGREGATION
The derived spectra from a PSHA are uniform hazard spectra and can be used
directly for design purposes with pseudo-dynamic methods, e.g., the model
response-spectrum methods or lateral force methods. These methods are
suitable in cases where only minor damage is allowed and the structures behave
approximately linear elastically.
In cases where heavy damage is expected or the material properties are
influenced by the earthquake actions (e.g. significant pore-water pressure
increase in soil materials or low - cycle fatigue in structural concrete or steel
elements), non-linear methods in the time domain are needed. In this case,
earthquake acceleration time history (PGA, duration of strong shaking, etc.)
representing the most dominant earthquake for the specific hazard has to be
detined.
The PSHA described so far allows the computation of the mean annual rate of
exceedance at a particular site based on an aggregated risk from potential
earthquakes of many different magnitudes at many different source-to-site
distances. The rate of exceedance is therefore not associated with any particular
earthquake magnitude or source-to-site distance. By means of deaggregation, a
probability density function can be calculated depending on earthquake
magnitude and source-to-site distance that allows identifying a prevalent
earthquake event for the examined site.
4.9
4.10
CATALOGUES
4.10.1
Number of Events
The time span that is reliably covered by the above mentioned catalogues is
1964 - 2008, which represents the time span of recorded events. The
parameters of historic events are at least debatable, if not totally uncertain, for the
list of earthquake events.
79
4.10.2
Working Procedure
To get a representative working catalogue, the following steps were carried out:
1. Search in the above catalogues for events between longitudes 71.0E to
75.0E and latitude 33.0 N to 37.0N. For the Nagdar power house
project, the dam with coordinates 34.390812N / 73.545914E is taken as
reference site.
Result: 3266 events
2. Homogenisation of magnitudes in the catalogue to Moment Magnitude
MW. The following correlations are used for conversion of Body Wave
Magnitude Mb, Surface Magnitude MS, and Seismic Moment M0 to Moment
Magnitude MW:
Ms = (1.46) Mb - 2.52
Log (M0) = 19.24 + Ms
for Ms5.3
for Ms6.8
4.10.3
Results
The result of the above procedure is the working catalogue and depicted in
Figure - 4.7, consisting of 3266 events. In case of missing data (magnitude Mw
and / or depth d), the data has been completed with standard values of Mw = 2.8
and d = 8km, in order not to miss potential earthquake patterns. These values
have no influence on the hazard results, since the magnitude integration is
started at magnitude 4.0.
The earthquake of October 08, 2005 Muzaffarabad is included in the data base.
4.11
4.11.1
Catalogue
The Figure - 4.7shows the spatial distribution of the epicenters of alt earthquakes
present in the final working catalogue database in the time span from 25 A.D.
until December 2008. This catalogue is called the "Working catalogue".
80
37
36.5
36
35.5
35
34.5
3.2693333333333 to 4.1453333333333
4.1453333333333 to 4.5346666666667
4.5346666666667 to 4.8
4.8 to 5.1
5.1 to 7.601
34
33.5
71
71.5
72
72.5
73
73.5
74
74.5
4.11.2
Seismogenic Depth
In Figure - 4.8 the hypocenter depth distribution of the earthquakes in the
working catalogue is depicted dependent on the latitude. Two discrete lines are
visible at a depth of 10 and 33 km, which used to be standard values for
earthquakes with shallow or unknown hypocenter depths.
Figure - 4.8 shows, that the majority of earthquakes in the northern part of the
investigated area are deep earthquakes in the range up to 300 km hypocenter
depth corresponding to the Eastern Hindukush Region. This is also visible in
Figure - 4.7 showing blue dots in the North-West of the investigated area. The
other area has fairly shallow earthquakes with hypocenter depth up to 60 km.
This particular depth distribution is considered in the assumption of the
seismogenic depth of the different seismic source zones.
A Benioff Zone could not be identified analysing the spatial earthquake
distribution over depth of the Indus Suture Zone. There is no clear picture of the
fault trace. The potential dimensions of this zone are taken into account by
assigning areas sources in the seismic source zone model comprising the extent
of earthquake activities of the Indus Suture Zone.
81
4.12
SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING
This section is based on documents by Greco (1989), Burg et al. (2005),
Llana-Funez (2006) and Zeilinger (2000). An extensive geological assessment of
the project is performed in PSHC (2008a). In the subsequent paragraphs, only
the geological key features of the project region are stated.)
4.12.1
4.12.1.1 General
The Western Himalayan Syntaxes area is tectonically characterised by four major
tectonic regions (Figure - 4.9):
The Sub-Himalaya
In detail, the rock distribution in the Kaghan Valley and in Azad Kashmir indicates
that each tectonic region is composed of one or more tectonic subunits each
having a particular stratigraphic sequence and a local name. The lateral
continuity of such subunits, which could extend for several hundred of kilometers,
is one of the most impressive features of the Himalayan Range.
82
83
4.13
4.13.1
4.13.1.1 Procedure
Two seismic source zone models are introduced for the PSHA calculation:
For each model, the hazard is calculated individually using the program
EZ-FRISK V. 7.36 (EZ-FRISK 2009). The hazard spectra are combined in a logic
tree algorithm with weighing factors to evaluate the final response spectrum at
the site.
Upper bound magnitude in the source zone Mmax: The upper bound
magnitude for each zone was taken as the maximum historical
magnitude in the catalogue covering the period from 25 A.D. to 2008 for
the corresponding zone plus 0.7 Mw.
84
Zone 2: Karakorma
The seismic source zone Model - 1 takes primarily the seismo-tectonic setting
into accounts and is compatible with the observed Measured and historic
seismicity. More sophisticated and more detailed models are possible, but would
not significantly improve the results of the hazard calculation.
The Figure - 4.11 shows the source map with the crosshairs marking the project
site.
85
86
87
Source
Zone
a
(log
at
M=4)
3.53
Activity #
/ year (at
Mmin=4)
Beta
ln(10)*b
Period of
completeness
Mw,max
(in
period)
Mmax
Mean
Depth
(km)
Selected
depth
range(km)
0.43
44.386
0.99
1964-2008
7.7
135.80
4.4-383
1.46
0.61
4.159
1.405
1964-2008
6.7
7.4
61.69
10-254.3
2.99
0.37
17.682
0.852
1964-2008
6.5
7.2
59.42
3.7-289.4
1.84
0.16
2.5
0.368
1964-2008
6.7
7.4
43.12
10-150
1.92
0.26
3.045
0.599
1964-2008
6.3
37.52
10-201.2
2.99
0.40
14.386
0.921
1964-2008
7.6
8.3
15.64
3.7-200
1.83
0.21
5.568
0.484
1964-2008
6.4
7.1
18.65
4-106
0.33
0.02
1.205
0.0460
1964-2008
5.5
6.2
36.76
4-126.7
88
89
The Figure - 4.15 shows the source map with the crosshairs marking the project
site. The source parameters are given in Table - 4.3.
The seismicity within each zone is equally distributed over the area and over the
defined depth range. Within the hazard integration procedure, the seismicity is
generated from rupture sources of finite length oriented towards the site. The
rupture length is dependent on the magnitude of the earthquake and is defined
after Wells & Coppersmith (1994). The modeling of rupture sources is a
conservative assumption, which leads to a reduction of earthquake distance
particularly for large earthquakes.
The project site is located in two zones. Zone 8CH 521 is a big zone containing
the whole region of northern Pakistan representing the background seismicity,
showing a high activity value after Gutenberg & Richter (1941) with earthquakes
of maximum Magnitude 7.0.
Around the project site, there is a small zone defined 8CH 284, with a lower avalue and a maximum magnitude of 7.5. The coarse zonation reflects only to a
limited extend the geology and the seismotectonic settings of the region. A
graphical overview of the source parameters is given in Figure - 4.16.
90
4.14
Source
Zone
Activity /
year (at
Mmin)
Beta
Mmin
Mmax
Depth
(km)
Al
Bl
8.CH.283
0.136857
2.5409
5.5
10
-2.44
0.59
8.CH.284
0.125571
2.5409
5.5
10
-2.44
0.59
8.CH.285
0.157571
2.5409
5.5
10
-2.44
0.59
8.CH.286
0.084143
2.5409
5.5
6.5
10
-4
8.CH.287
0.065
2.5409
5.5
6.5
10
-4
8.CH.288
0.233571
2.5409
5.5
7.5
10
-2.44
0.59
8.CH.521
175.143
2.5409
10
-2.44
0.59
INDIVIDUAL RESULTS
The analyses were performed with the Computer Program EZ-FRISK Version
7.36 from Risk Engineering (EZ-FRISK 2009).
The results for the total hazard are shown for peak ground acceleration (100 Hz)
and for spectral acceleration values and individual hazard for each zone for peak
ground acceleration (100 Hz).
Based on the assumptions for the seismotectonic models, the following results
are obtained:
91
4.14.1
Results of Model - 1
Figure - 4.17: PSHA for PGA (at Period of 0.03 s); 5% damping, Model
92
93
94
95
96
4.14.2
Results of Model - 2
97
98
For a medium amplitude of 0.3061 g, the major hazard contribution stems from
earthquakes at a mean distance of about 15.43 km having magnitudes Mw
around 5.39. The values are only slightly different for lower amplitudes. There is
a tendency of decreasing Magnitude and decreasing distance for lower
amplitudes.
99
100
101
4.15
4.15.1
The Consultants recommend taking the DBE level as the relevant level. It has to
be pointed out that the earthquake actions on structures in modern building
codes are based on an annual probability of 1 / 475. At this level, substantial
damage is allowed for structures of low importance (e.g. importance class III and
IV in Eurocode 8, Part 1. In contrast, important or hazardous structures have to
remain functional, that means only minor damage is allowed.
102
4.15.2
4.15.3
4.15.4
103
104
Table - 4.4: Acceleration response spectra for MCE, DBE and OBE
MCE Spectrum
(Annual Probability of
Exceedence
1 /10,000)
Period (s)
Horizontal
(g)
Vertical
(g)
DBE Spectrum
(Annual Probability of
Exceedence 1 / 475)
Horizontal
(g)
Vertical
(g)
OBE Spectrum
(Annual Probability of
Exceedence 1 / 145)
Horizontal
(g)
Vertical
(g)
0.03 (PGA)
0.6842
0.456133
0.3483
0.2322
0.2547
0.1698
5.00E-02
1.014
0.676
0.5003
0.333533
0.3593
0.239533
0.1
1.68
1.12
0.8151
0.5434
0.5782
0.385467
0.2
1.994
1.329333
0.9535
0.635667
0.6799
0.453267
0.3
1.51
1.006667
0.7543
0.502867
0.5478
0.3652
0.4
1.268
0.845333
0.636
0.424
0.4645
0.309667
0.5
1.144
0.762667
0.5735
0.382333
0.4199
0.279933
0.75
0.9122
0.608133
0.4549
0.303267
0.3305
0.220333
0.7759
0.517267
0.3821
0.254733
0.2746
0.183067
0.4619
0.307933
0.2193
0.1462
0.1523
0.101533
0.3052
0.203467
0.1414
0.094267
0.1013
0.067533
0.2337
0.1558
0.1096
0.073067
0.07715
0.051433
The resulting weighted values for horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) at
the Nagdar Valley site are 0.6842, 0.3483, and 0.2547 respectively, as is also
shown in Table 7.1 for a period of 0.03 s.
4.15.5
105
106
107
Table - 4.5: Acceleration Response Spectra for 5000, 2000, 2500 and 1000
Return Pediods
Period
(s)
Annual Probability
of Exceedence
1 /5000)
Annual Probability
of Exceedence
1 / 2000)
Horizontal
(g)
Horizontal
(g)
0.03
0.592900
(PGA)
5.00E0.873300
02
1.437000
0.1
Vertical
(g)
Vertical
(g)
Annual Probability
of Exceedence
1 / 2500)
Vertical
(g)
Annual Probability
of Exceedence
1 / 1000)
Horizontal Horizontal
(g)
(g)
Vertical
(g)
0.395267 0.489600
0.3264
0.513700 0.342467
0.417700
0.278467
0.5822
0.713600
0.602000
0.401333
0.958
1.168000
0.998600
0.665733
1.356000
0.904
0.998600
0.665733
0.2
1.689000
1.126
0.3
1.301000
0.867333 1.069000
0.909100
0.606067
0.4
1.102000
0.734667 0.901600
0.765200
0.510133
0.5
0.998700
0.6658
0.810600
0.5404
0.852900 0.5686
0.691400
0.460933
0.75
0.787200
0.5248
0.642600
0.4284
0.677200 0.451467
0.546100
0.364067
0.669600
0.4464
0.543500
0.461200
0.307467
0.396200
0.264133 0.318800
0.267200
0.178133
0.259900
0.173267 0.209700
0.1398
0.221000 0.147333
0.174200
0.116133
0.200900
0.133933 0.158700
0.1058
0.168100 0.112067
0.132800
0.088533
4.16
1.430000 0.953333
CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL
Construction material required for various structures of the proposed Nagdar
Hydropower Project is available in ample quantity. A detailed investigation
programme has been proposed to determine the engineering characteristics of
the aggregate to be used as concrete.
The locations of borrow area / quarry sites have been shown on geological maps
through Dwg. No. 4-1
4.16.1
Coarse Aggregate
108
4.16.2
4.16.3
Building Stone
Granitic gneiss rock is available for masonry works within the project area in
sufficient quantity.
4.16.4
Fill Material
For protection measures along slopes and structures, fill material of almost every
size is available from nullah bed and from the adjacent terraces within a close
vicinity of the project.
Boulders or angular stones can be picked up from nullah bed or from hill side
slopes and may be used as per specifications.
4.16.5
4.17
4.17.1
Weir Site
The rocks exposed at both the abutments of the proposed weir site are
metamorphic in origin, comprise mainly of the garnet mica schists and
occasionally phyllites. These schists are medium grained, foliated highly
compressed and sheared at many locations. Black schists are exposed at the
right bank of Nagdar nullah.
The geological map of weir site is shown in Dwg. No. 4-1.
109
Nullah bed mainly comprises of sub-rounded to rounded boulders and gravel with
sand and minor amount of fines. These boulders and gravel include granitic
gneiss, marble, phyllites, schists and granite (found as intrusive rock). The
geological cross-section along the proposed weir site is shown in Dwg. No. 4-4.
General foliation trend and sets of joints measured during the surface geological
mapping at weir site are given below:
Station 1:
Station 2:
Station 3:
Station 4:
N 60 E / 52 SE
N 30 E / 54 SE
N 35 E / 60 SE
N 60 E / 54 SE
N 25 E / 60 SE
N 25 W / 70 NE
N 57 E / 69 SE
N 65 E / 56 SE
N 68 E / 41 SE
N 50 E / 43 SE
N 45 E / 45 SE
N 52 E / 67 SE
Geotechnical and Soil investigations at the weir site include drilling of two (02)
boreholes at the right abutment and at left abutment respectively. The main
objectives of executing drilling are to examine the type and nature of rock, to
perform in-situ permeability test (by using Packer) and to perform various
laboratory tests to determine strength parameters for design purposes.
A good quality of construction material is available upstream and downstream
area of the proposed weir site. The material includes large sized boulders, gravel
and sand. Maximum size of boulder being 7 x 5 x 4 m, it is considered that most
of these boulders are of sound rock. These include the granitic gneiss and
granites.
Aggregate for concrete is available in abundant quantity for
construction of a weir. Selected boulders and gravel may be crushed to obtain
the required grading as per ASTM standards and specifications.
One test pit has been proposed in the borrow area for aggregate. Samples of
aggregates shall be collected for testing in the laboratory to determine their
engineering characteristics and proper evaluation in accordance with ASTM
specifications.
FHC Consulting Engineers
110
4.17.2
Connecting Channel
The connecting channel shall be excavated through schists and is located at the
right bank of Nagdar nullah. Surface geological mapping of surge area has been
carried out on scale 1:1,000.
4.17.3
Sandtrap
The sandtrap shall be excavated through schists and is located at the right bank
of Nagdar nullah. Surface geological mapping of surge area has been carried out
on scale 1:1,000. One borehole has been proposed at the downstream end of
sandtrap.
4.17.4
Headrace Tunnel
Headrace tunnel having a length of about 3.84 km shall be excavated through
metamorphic rocks including mainly of schists, phyllites, granitic gneiss with
igneous intrusions at some locations.
Tunnel inlet portal is to be constructed in schists and phyllites; whereas, at outlet
portal the rock conditions are expected to be much better as granitic gneiss is
exposed at the surface which contains less mica, more quartz, and higher
strength.
The overall geological conditions appear to be good to very good for excavation;
however, at places shear zones, fractures and local brittle faults may create
problem during tunneling. Temporary and / or permanent supports shall have to
be designed at critical locations as mentioned above.
Similarly high ingress of water may be prevented by sealing fault zones, shears
zones, joints and other structural defects if encountered in rocks. Rock bolting,
rock pinning, grouting, guniting and shotcreting would be imperative in such
cases.
4.17.5
Surge Tank
Surge tank shall be driven in rocks comprising of granitic schists / gneiss with
some igneous intrusions like granite, diorites and granodiorites. Surface
geological mapping of surge area has been carried out on scale 1:1,000.
One drill borehole has been proposed at the surge to examine the type and
nature of rock. Hand specimens of rock were collected and provided to the Client
for their petrographic analysis. The gneiss in general contains less mica, more
quartz and higher strength.
111
4.17.6
NP-2
NP-3
NP-4
NP-5
Description
N43 W / 32 NE
Granitic gneiss
N 30 E / 40 SE
EW / 75 S
N 57 W / 60 NE
N 85 E / 38 NW
Major joint
N 32 E / 42 SE
Minor joint
N 30 W / 71 NE
EW / 72 S
Major joint
N 70 E / 77 NW
Major joint
N 44 W / 35 NE
EW / 72 S
N 32 E / 42 SE
Minor joint
N 42 W / 31 NE
N 82 E / 40 NW
Major joint
N 35 E / 45 SE
Minor joint
112
4.17.7
Access Tunnel
In the Danjar nullah a good exposure of rock about 50 m thick at the left bank
near the foot bridge is available to drive an access tunnel for underground cavern
structure, surge shaft and headrace tunnel.
The rock conditions apparently are quite similar to powerhouse, surge tank and
allied structures. This access tunnel shall be excavated through granitic gneiss.
The surface geological mapping of access tunnel area has been carried out on
scale 1:1,000. One borehole has been proposed at the access tunnel to examine
the type and nature of rock.
Rock samples were collected for their petrographic analysis and to allocate
proper name and nomenclature of rock depending upon their mineral
constituents.
Joint sets as measured during the surface geological mapping at the access
tunnel area are given below:
Station No.
Description
AT-1
N 30 E / 70 NW
EW / 70 S
N 10 W / 80 NE
N 65 W / 32 NE
EW / 75 S
N 15 W / 80 NE
N 25 W / 80 NE
N 70 E / 77 NW
N 57 W / 60 NE
N 30 E / 40 SE
EW / 75 S
N 7 W / 62 NE
N 85 E / 38 NW
N 32 E / 42 SE
AT-2
AT-3
AT-4
AT-5
113
4.17.8
Tailrace
The tailrace shall be partly founded in rock and partly in overburden. The rock
conditions are somewhat similar to the underground powerhouse cavern
structure. The overburden material is comprised of angular boulders and gravel
with sand and appreciable amount of fines (ABGM). At places rounded boulders
and gravel are expected.
The granitic gneiss is expected to be hard, compact, and massive at depth. The
geomechanical properties of rock mass are expected to be similar to rock through
which powerhouse cavern structure is to be founded. Tailrace Channel shall be
cut through a mixture zone (ABGM, RBGM and RBG). Surface geological
mapping of this area has been carried out on scale 1:1,000 differentiating
between ABGM and RBGM. One borehole has been proposed at the tailrace.
4.18
114
4.18.1
Parameter B
Parameter C
General
appraisal
of
geological structure on the
basis of
a) Rock type origin
b) Rock hardness
c) Geologic structure
Geometer:
Effect of discontinuity
pattern with respect to the
direction of the tunnel drive
Effect of ground water
inflow and joint conditions
115
Hard
Medium
Soft
Decomposed
Igneous
Slightly
Moderately
Intensively
2
2
Metamorphic
Folded or
Folded or
Folded or
Sedimentary
Massive
Faulted
Faulted
Faulted
22
15
Type 2
30
27
20
13
Type 3
24
18
12
Type 4
19
15
10
Type 1
Both
Average Joint Spacing
1. Very closely jointed, < 2 in
2. Closely jointed, 2-6 in
3. Moderately jointed, 6-12 in
4. Moderate to blocky, 1-2 ft
5. Blocky to massive, 2-4 ft
6. Massive, > 4 ft
Flat
9
13
23
30
36
40
Strike 1 to Axis
Direction of Drive
With Dip
Against Dip
Dip of Prominent Joints a
Dipping Vertical
Dipping
Vertical
11
13
10
12
16
19
15
17
24
28
19
22
32
36
25
28
38
40
33
35
43
45
37
40
Strike II to Axis
Direction of Drive
Either Direction
Dip of Prominent Joints
Flat
Dipping
Vertical
9
9
7
14
14
11
23
23
19
30
28
24
24
36
28
40
38
34
Sum of Parameters A + B
13 - 44
45 - 75
Joint Condition b
Good
Fair
Poor
Good
Fair
Poor
22
18
12
25
22
18
19
15
23
19
14
15
22
21
16
12
18
14
10
10
o;
A+B+C=27+24+19
RSR = 70
116
Igneous
Metamorphic
Sedimentary
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3
Type 4
Hard
1
1
2
Geological Structures
Slightly
Moderately
Folded or
Folded or
Faulted
Faulted
22
15
20
13
18
12
15
10
Massive
30
27
24
19
Both
Average Joint Spacing
1. Very closely jointed, < 2 in
2. Closely jointed, 2-6 in
3. Moderately jointed, 6-12 in
4. Moderate to blocky, 1-2 ft
5. Blocky to massive, 2-4 ft
6. Massive, > 4 ft
Flat
9
13
23
30
36
40
Strike 1 to Axis
Direction of Drive
With Dip
Against Dip
Dip of Prominent Joints a
Dipping Vertical
Dipping
Vertical
11
13
10
12
16
19
15
17
24
28
19
22
32
36
25
28
38
40
33
35
43
45
37
40
Intensively
Folded or
Faulted
9
8
7
6
Strike II to Axis
Direction of Drive
Either Direction
Dip of Prominent Joints
Flat
Dipping
Vertical
9
9
7
14
14
11
23
23
19
30
28
24
36
24
28
34
40
38
Sum of Parameters A + B
13 - 44
45 - 75
Joint Condition b
Good
Fair
Poor
Good
Fair
Poor
22
18
12
25
22
18
19
15
23
19
14
15
22
21
16
12
18
14
10
10
o;
A+B+C=27+34+19
RSR=80
117
All the three Parameters have been used to evaluate the rating of each of these parameters
to arrive at the RSR values (maximum RSR = 100).
The results are given below:
Structure
1. Weir site and tunnel inlet portal
2. Tunnel outlet & powerhouse
area
RMR (A+B+C)
70 (27+24+19)
80 (27+34+19)
4.18.2
Spacing of discontinuities
Condition of discontinuities
Groundwater conditions
Orientation of discontinuities.
118
The detailed description and rating for each of the six parameters are provided
below. These ratings are summed to give a value of RMR. Subsequently, the
RMR values are determined for weir site, headrace tunnel portal (Rock Unit
Schist).
Sr.
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Value
Point Load Index
Rock Quality Designation (RQD)
Spacing of Discontinuities
Condition of Discontinuities
Groundwater Conditions
Adjustment for Joint Orientation
8 Mpa
70
300mm
Damp
Rating
12
13
10
22
10
-5
Total=62
119
Range of Values
Strength of
intact rock
material
> 10 MPa
4 - 10 MPa
2 - 4 MPa
1 - 2 MPa
Uniaxial comp.
strength
50 - 100 MPa
25 - 50 MPa
15
12
90% - 100%
75% - 70%
50% - 75%
25% - 50%
20
17
13
> 2m
0.6 - 2 m
200 - 600 mm
60 - 200 mm
< 60 mm
20
15
10
Rating
2
3
Condition of discontinuities
(See E)
Groundwater
Slickensided surfaces
or Gouge < 5mm thick
or Separation 1-5 mm
Continuous
5 - 25
MPa
1-5
MPa
25 - 22
20
10
None
< 10
10 - 25
25 - 125
> 125
<0.1
0.1 - 0.2
0.2 - 0.5
> 0.5
Completely dry
Damp
Wet
Dripping
Flowing
15
10
General conditions
Rating
120
< 1 MPa
> 25%
30
Rating
Very favourable
Favourable
Fair
Unfavourable
Very Unfavourable
-2
-5
-10
-12
Foundations
-2
-7
-15
-25
Slopes
-5
-25
-50
100 81
80 61
00 41
40 21
II
III
IV
Good rock
Fair rock
Poor rock
Ratings
< 21
II
III
IV
> 400
300 400
200 300
100 200
< 100
> 45
35 45
25 35
15 25
< 15
13m
4
3 10 m
2
10 20 m
1
> 20 m
0
None
6
< 0.1 mm
5
0.1 1.0 mm
4
1 5 mm
1
> 5 mm
0
Very rough
6
None
6
Unweathered
6
Rough5
Hard filling < 5mm
4
Slightly weathered
5
Slightly rough
3
Hard filling > 5mm
2
Moderately weathered
3
Smooth
1
Soft filling < 5mm
2
Highly weathered
1
Slickensided
0
Soft filling > 5mm
0
Decomposed
0
Very favourable
Drive against dip - Dip 45 - 90
Dip 45 - 90
Favourable
o
Fair
Dip 20 - 45
Very unfavourable
o
Fair
Dip 0 - 20 Irrespective of strike
Unfavourable
Fair
* Some conditions are mutually exclusive. For example, if in filling is present, the roughness of the surface will be overshadowed by the influence of the gouge. In such cases use A.4 directly.
** Modified after Wickham et al (1972).
121
Range of Values
Strength of
intact rock
material
> 10 MPa
4 - 10 MPa
2 - 4 MPa
1 - 2 MPa
Uniaxial comp.
strength
50 - 100 MPa
25 - 50 MPa
15
12
90% - 100%
75% - 90%
50% - 75%
25% - 50%
20
17
13
> 2m
0.6 - 2 m
200 - 600 mm
60 - 200 mm
< 60 mm
20
15
10
Rating
2
3
Condition of discontinuities
(See E)
Groundwater
Slickensided surfaces
or Gouge < 5mm thick
or Separation 1-5 mm
Continuous
5 - 25
MPa
1-5
MPa
25
20
10
None
< 10
10 - 25
25 - 125
> 125
<0.1
0.1 - 0.2
0.2 - 0.5
> 0.5
Completely dry
Damp
Wet
Dripping
Flowing
15
10
General conditions
Rating
122
< 1 MPa
> 25%
30
Rating
Very favourable
Favourable
Fair
Unfavourable
Very Unfavourable
-2
-5
-10
-12
Foundations
-2
-7
-15
-25
Slopes
-5
-25
-50
100 81
80 61
00 41
40 21
II
III
IV
Good rock
Fair rock
Poor rock
Ratings
< 21
II
III
IV
> 400
300 - 400
200 - 300
100 - 200
< 100
> 45
35 - 45
25 - 35
15 - 25
< 15
1-3m
4
< 0.1 mm
5
3 - 10 m
2
0.1 - 1.0 mm
4
Slightly rough
3
Hard filling > 5mm
2
Moderately weathered
3
10 - 20 m
1
1 - 5 mm
1
Smooth
1
Soft filling < 5mm
2
Highly weathered
1
> 20 m
0
> 5 mm
0
Slickensided
0
Soft filling > 5mm
0
Decomposed
0
Rough5
Hard filling < 5mm
4
Slightly weathered
5
Very favourable
Drive against dip - Dip 45 - 90
Dip 45 - 90
Favourable
o
Fair
Dip 20 - 45
Very unfavourable
o
Fair
Dip 0 - 20 Irrespective of strike
Unfavourable
Fair
* Some conditions are mutually exclusive. For example, if in filling is present, the roughness of the surface will be overshadowed by the influence of the gouge. In such cases use A.4 directly.
** Modified after Wickham et al (1972).
123
The RMR value determined for the tunnel outlet portal and powerhouse (Rock
Unit Granitic Gneiss).
Sr.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Value
10 Mpa
80
(0.6-2.0m)
Damp
Rating
15
17
15
25
10
-5
Rock mass class determined from the total rating (RMR = 77) ~ Class II (Good
Rock).
RMR value of 77 places Granitic Gneiss under the rock mass Class II described
as Good Rock
Based on the RMR value, Table - 4.10 suggests that a tunnel could be excavated
by full face method with a 1 - 1.5 m advance complete support 20 m from face
shall be required. Locally, bolts in crown 3 m long, spaced 2.5 m with occasional
weir mesh. 50 mm shotcrete shall be required in crown.
Table - 4.10: Guideline for Excavation in Support of 10m Span Rock
Tunnels in Accordance with the RMR System (After Bieniawski 1989)
Rock Mass
Class
I - very good
rock RMR
81-100
II - Good
rock RMR
61-80
IV - Poor
rock RMR
21-40
Excavation
Rock Bolts
(20mm diameter,
fully grouted)
Full face 3m
advance
Full face
1-1.5m advance
complete support
20m from face
Locally bolts in
crown 3m long,
spaced 2.5m with
occasional wire
mesh
50mm in crown
where required
None
Systematic bolts
4m long spaced
1.5-2m in crown
& walls with weir
mesh in crown
50-100mm in
crown & 100m
in side
None
Systematic bolts
4-5m long,
spaced 1-1.5m in
crown & walls
with weir mesh
100-150mm in
crown & 100m
in side
Light to
medium ribs
spaced 1.5m
where required
124
Shotcrete
Steel Sets
concurrently with
excavation, 10m
from face
Multiple drifts 0.51.5m advance in top
heading
Install support
concurrently with
excavation.
Shotcrete as soon as
possible after
blasting
V Very
poor rock
RMR <20
4.18.3
Systematic bolts
5-6m long,
spaced 1-1.5m in
crown & walls
with weir mesh.
Bolt invent
150-200mm in
crown, 150mm
in sides, &
50mm on face
Medium to
heavy ribs
spaced 0.75m
with steel
lagging &
forepoling if
required. Close
invert.
RQD
Jn
Jr
Ja
Jw
SRF
125
VALUE
RQD
A.
Very poor
0 - 25
B.
Poor
25 - 50
C.
Fair
50 - 75
D.
Good
75 - 90
E.
Excellent
90 - 100
Jn
A.
0.5 - 1.0
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
12
H.
15
I.
20
Jr
NOTES
1. Where RQD is reported or measured as 10 (including 0),
a nominal value of 10 is used to evaluate Q.
2. RQD intervals of 5, i.e., 100, 95, 90 etc. are sufficiently
accurate.
Discontinuous joints
B.
C.
Smooth undulating
D.
Slickensided undulating
1.5
E.
1.5
F.
Smooth, planar
1.0
126
G.
Slickensided planar
0.5
1.0
(nominal)
I.
1.0
Ja
A.
0.75
B.
1.0
25 - 35
C.
2.0
25 - 30
3.0
20 - 25
4.0
8 - 16
(nominal)
r degrees (approx.)
D.
E.
1.
F.
4.0
25 - 30
G.
6.0
16 - 24
H.
8.0
12 - 16
I.
8.0 - 12.0
6 - 12
J.
6.0
K.
8.0
L.
conditions)
8.0 - 12.0
M.
5.0
6 - 24
10.0 - 13.0
O.
6.0 - 24.0
127
5
A.
Jw
1.0
B.
0.66
1.0 2.5
C.
0.5
2.5 10.0
D.
0.33
2.5 10.0
E.
0.2 0.1
> 10
F.
0.1 0.05
> 10
1.
2.
1.
SRF
10.0
B.
5.0
C.
2.5
D.
7.5
E.
5.0
F.
2.5
G.
5.0
Tunneling Quality
Q
Q
= RQD / Jn x Jr / Ja x Jw / SRF
= 70/1 x 4/0.75 x 1/5
= 74
128
VALUE
RQD
A.
Very poor
0 - 25
B.
Poor
25 - 50
C.
Fair
50 - 75
D.
Good
75 - 90
E.
Excellent
90 - 100
Jn
A.
B.
0.5 - 1.0
2
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
12
H.
15
I.
20
Jr
NOTES
1. Where RQD is reported or measured as 10 (including 0),
a nominal value of 10 is used to evaluate Q.
2. RQD intervals of 5, i.e., 100, 95, 90 etc. are sufficiently
accurate.
Discontinuous joints
B.
C.
Smooth undulating
D.
Slickenside undulating
1.5
E.
1.5
F.
Smooth, planar
1.0
129
G.
Slickenside planar
0.5
1.0
(nominal)
I.
1.0
Ja
A.
0.75
B.
1.0
25 - 35
C.
2.0
25 - 30
D.
3.0
20 - 25
E.
4.0
8 - 16
F.
4.0
25 - 30
G.
6.0
16 - 24
H.
8.0
12 - 16
I.
8.0 - 12.0
6 - 12
J.
6.0
K.
8.0
L.
conditions)
8.0 - 12.0
M.
5.0
(nominal)
r degrees (approx.)
6 - 24
130
N.
10.0 - 13.0
O.
6.0 - 24.0
Jw
A.
1.0
< 1.0
B.
0.66
1.0 - 2.5
C.
0.5
2.5 - 10.0
D.
0.33
2.5 - 10.0
E.
0.2 - 0.1
> 10
F.
0.1 - 0.05
> 10
1.
2.
1.
SRF
10.0
B.
5.0
C.
D.
7.5
E.
5.0
F.
2.5
G.
Tunneling Quality
Q
Q
= RQD / Jn x Jr / Ja x Jw / SRF
= 80/1 x 4/0.75 x 1/5
= 85
131
Tunneling Quality Index (Q) worked out for the various structures of the proposed
Nagdar Hydropower Project are given below:
Structure
Weir Site + Tunnel Inlet Portal
Headrace Tunnel + Powerhouse
4.19
Tunneling Quality
Index (Q)
74
85
4.20
CONCLUSIONS
Based on the geological and geotechnical studies carried out so far for the
feasibility of Nagdar Hydropower Project, the following conclusions and
recommendations are given:
1. The major Himalayan tectonic units are well exposed along the relatively
accessible Neelum Valley. These are the result of collision between the
Eurasian and Indian plates.
2. The major fault zones in Northern Pakistan generally trend E W disturbed
locally by two tectonic semi windows, the Nanga Parabat Syntaxis and the
Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis. The area connecting these two Syntaxis
including Nagdar Hydropower Project site is being affected by an exceptional
rate of uplift, presently reaching 7mm / year.
3. The rocks exposed in the project area are mainly of metamorphic origin
comprising of granitic gneiss, schists and phyllites with igneous intrusions
(mostly granites and granodiorites) at places.
4. The right abutments of weir shall be founded on schists. The nullah bed
material comprising of rounded boulders and gravel shall have to be
removed.
5. Sandtrap, connecting channel and a part of headrace tunnel shall have to be
excavated through schists. For most parts of the headrace tunnel, surge tank
and powerhouse cavern structure the strata to be encountered during
excavation shall include mainly granitic gneiss with minor amount of schists.
132
ii.
For the OBE, considerably lower values for the annual probability of
exceedance are recommended in the ICOLD Bulletin 72 (ICOLD 1989),
at least 1 / 145 years.
133
4.21
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1. The overall geological conditions appear to be fair to good for excavation;
however at places shear zones, fractures, local brittle faults and other
structural discontinuities and defects may create problems during tunneling.
It is therefore suggested that temporary and / or permanent supports may be
designed for the construction of pressure shaft and other underground
structures.
2. The granitic gneiss could be potentially suitable rock type for concrete
aggregate but its potential reactivity Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) needs to be
confirmed by tests. If granitic gneiss is found reactive then instead of
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), low alkali cement would be recommended
for concrete.
134
135
136
5.1
GENERAL
Nagdar nullah is a right bank tributary of Neelum River, located about 3 km
upstream of Keran village. The lower stretch of Nagdar nullah has attractive
steep gradient and perennial flows; hence, hydroelectric power can economically
be harnessed.
Nagdar scheme was previously studied by the French
Consultants and an identification report was prepared to generate 18 MW in the
lower 4 km stretch of Nagdar nullah.
Nagdar nullah is located on Survey of Pakistan (SOP) GT Sheet No. 43 - F/14.
The lower 6 km stretch of Nagdar nullah was selected by the Consultants to be
investigated in the field for various alternatives considering hydrologic,
topographic and geological conditions.
The access to weir site is partly by jeepable track and partly on foot. Considering
morphology of Nagdar nullah and population within project area, the right bank
was selected to propose alternate layouts for Nagdar Hydropower Project.
5.2
TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES
The catchment area of Nagdar nullah up to confluence with Neelum River is
estimated as 91 km2. Nagdar nullah joins Neelum River at about El. 1508 m asl.
Due to perennial flows and steep gradient the potential site would provide
sufficient hydroelectric energy to meet future power demand of regional grid of
AJ&K.
The average bed gradient in the selected stretch of Nagdar nullah is about 8 %.
Neelum River flows with average gradient of about 1 % near Keran village.
As the confluence of nullah with Neelum River is located close to the Line of
Control at Keran sector; therefore, two options for powerhouse site were picked
for field check keeping in view the safety and security of the works. The project
layout within Nagdar valley is surface, whereas alternate layout is underground.
A relatively small stretch of lower 6 km of Nagdar nullah provides about 480 m
head. The diversion of Nagdar nullah into Neelum River near Danjar nullah
through 3.84 km headrace tunnel provides a drop of 470 m. The normal head
and tail water for Nagdar Hydropower Project are 1956 m asl and 1480 m asl
respectively.
137
5.3
5.3.1
Latitude
Longitude
Weir
34 41 18
73 54 20
Powerhouse
34 39 09
73 55 00
The weir crest has been proposed at El. 1956 m asl and the design discharge
would be dropped into Neelum River at El. 1480 m asl. The design discharge
has been taken as 9 m3/s for estimation of power and energy. The geological
aspects and salient features of Alternative-I are presented below.
5.3.2
5.3.2.1
Weir Site
Rocks of metamorphic origin are exposed on the both banks of weir site with thin
cover of morainic material comprising of angular boulders and gravel with sand
and appreciable amount of fines (ABGM). The foundations of a concrete
structure may be laid on rocks. Phyllites and schists are major rock types in the
valley.
138
5.3.2.2
Headrace Tunnel
The headrace tunnel alignment shall apparently pass through and be excavated
in the rocks of metamorphic origin comprising mainly of phyllites and schists with
intrusions of igneous rocks at places.
The general trend of rocks exposed along the proposed tunnel alignment is
N 80 W with foliation plane dipping from 55 to 60 NE.
Two sets of joints as measured during reconnaissance visit are given below:
N70E / 84 NW,
N30W / 69 NE
5.3.2.3
5.3.2.4
139
5.3.2.5
5.3.3
Design Discharge
m3/s
Gross Head
470
Design Capacity
35
MW
146.05 GWh
Plant Factor
47.64 %
Type of Weir
14
3840
Diameter of Tunnel
3.1
Pressure Shaft
420
Pressure Tunnel
260
2.1
Type of Powerhouse
Cavern Powerhouse
Number of Units
Tailrace Length
537 m
Latitude
Longitude
Weir
34-40-24
73-54-40
Powerhouse
34-38-33
73-55-48
140
The weir has been proposed at El. 1830 m asl and the design discharge would
be dropped into Nagdar nullah at El. 1538 m. The design discharge has been
taken as 9 m3/s for estimation of power and energy. The geological aspects and
salient features of project layout Alternate-II are presented below.
5.3.4
5.3.4.1
Weir Site
The valley is quite narrow having V shaped at the weir site, where rocks of
metamorphic origin are exposed at both banks of nullah with thin cover of
morainic material comprising of angular boulders and gravel with sand and
appreciable amount of fines (ABGM).
The overburden cover can easily be removed / excavated and the foundation of
concrete structure may be laid on rocks. Phyllites and schists are major rock
types in the valley.
5.3.4.2
Power Channel
A 2100 m long channel may be constructed at the right bank of Nagdar nullah
where slopes are covered with thin morainic material, comprising mainly of
angular boulders and gravel with sand and appreciable amount of fines (ABGM).
The thickness of this morainic material is yet to be determined. Below this cover
granitic schists and gneisses are expected to encounter.
For most of the part channel shall be excavated in metamorphic rocks. There are
no chances of any major landslides along the proposed channel alignment.
However, at places, local slides may occur during excavation. Some protective
measures shall have to be made for slope protection. These may include
reshaping of geometry of slopes, grouting and construction of retaining walls.
5.3.4.3
Powerhouse
Powerhouse site has been identified within Nagdar valley on terraces located
500 m upstream of Neelum River confluence. It is envisaged that powerhouse is
suitable for channel scheme located near Nagdar nullah.
It is considered that powerhouse shall be founded on colluvial material
comprising mainly of large size boulders and gravel with little sand and
appreciable amount of fines (ABGM).
141
5.3.4.4
Design Discharge
m3/s
Gross Head
292
Design Capacity
21
MW
88.03 GWh
Plant Factor
48.05 %
Type of Weir
Height of Weir
16
2100
Penstock Length
1750
Penstock Diameter
1.8
Type of Powerhouse
Surface Powerhouse
Number of Units
Tailrace Length
30 m
5.4
5.4.1
5.4.2
Project Layout
The Alternate - I has low pressure tunnel, surge tank, pressure shaft,
powerhouse, tailrace tunnel and access tunnel. The power generation with
underground structures is considered expensive as compared with that of surface
structures. Although Alternate - II has surface structures and these are
considered easy to construct, however, the topography for power channel and
penstock is steep which restricts the size of structures. The weir axis proposed
for Alternate - I can also be considered for Alternate - II as the high level open
channel, however, in this case forebay cannot be constructed. It is therefore
concluded that Alternate - II is not suitable to utilise the potential gross head and
discharge that can be proposed for Alternate - I.
142
5.4.3
5.4.4
Line of Control
The Line of Control at Keran village is just opposite to the Neelum River and
some portion of the Alternate - II would be exposed to the Line of Control which
could endanger the safety of the project.
5.4.5
Project Cost
Project cost has been estimated for Alternate - I and Alternate - II as
US$ 52.02 million and US$ 34.54 million respectively. The mean annual energy
for Alternate - I and Alternate - II is 146.05 and 88.03 GWh respectively. The cost
per kWh has been worked out as Pak Rs. 5.02 and Rs. 5.34 respectively.
5.5
SELECTED LAYOUT
Although the cost per kWh for Alternate - II is comparatively more than
Alternate - I, yet Alternate - I even with underground structures is safe and
attractive to be developed as compared with Alternate - II. The difficulties and
stability problems associated with Alternate - II are high as compared with
Alternate I, therefore, Alternate - I is preferred over Alternate - II. Further the
utilisation of increased gross head, safe and secure underground structures
against weather conditions as well as with close proximity to Line of Control,
Alternate - I is adopted and shall be considered for detailed design studies.
Project layout Alternate-I is shown in Dwg. No. 5-2.
143
144
6.1
GENERAL
For the selected project location and project alternative layouts, project sizing has
been carried out by considering various design discharges ranging from 4 m3/s to
13 m3/s with an interval of 1 m3/s. The weir will provide a full supply level of
1956 m asl at intake of headrace tunnel.
About 3840 m long headrace tunnel and 680 m pressure shaft including pressure
tunnel and 537 m long tailrace has been proposed for the selected project layout.
The discharge data near weir site shows that the mean monthly discharge varies
from 1.07 m3/s to 14.68 m3/s. The capacity optimisation has been carried out by
selecting various design discharges.
The benefits and cost have been estimated for various design discharges and the
plant has been optimised on the basis of marginal cost and average cost of
generated unit. Sensitivity analyses concerning hydrology and project cost has
been carried out for the selected plant capacity.
The aim of project optimisation is to have an optimum capacity of the plant by
utilising the full potential of the site. The project would be developed for its
interconnection to National Grid. The project would be operated as run-off-river
plant.
6.2
HYDROLOGY
The estimated mean monthly flows are indicated in Figure 6.1 which show
variation from 1.07 to 14.68 m3/s on average flow year basis. On Nagdar nullah,
flow measurements have been made for a period of about one year.
The estimation of flows has been made by establishing a correlation with the
other gauging stations in the area having similar catchment characteristics. The
estimated annual flow at weir site of Nagdar nullah is 5.44 m3/s.
145
16
13.92
14.68
12
9.71
9.25
8
5.62
4.22
4
1.07
1.13
JAN
FEB
1.76
1.60
1.19
1.09
NOV
DEC
0
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
Month
6.3
CAPACITY OPTIMISATION
The optimisation procedure involves first to estimate power and energy benefits
for each design discharge of the hydropower project.
The benefits for
hydropower project are estimated from the cost of alternate source of equivalent
energy production.
In this regard, the marginal cost parameters have been used which are derived
from the tariffs offered to the power utilities. The benefits of the project consider
the energy produced as well as to the firm capacity available. The optimum
installed capacity is the one which maximises the difference between benefits
and costs.
For the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project, the daily discharge data indicates
that a discharge of 4 m3/s, 8 m3/s, and 12 m3/s are available for duration of
45.0 %, 28.2 % and 15.7 % of the time respectively during the year. The
optimum discharge would be the one at which generation cost, that is cost per
kWh, is minimum and the NPV is maximum.
The power and energy has been estimated for each discharge range from 4 to
13 m3/s. The gross head and net head are estimated from difference of head and
tail water levels. The tail water fluctuations have also been considered. The
reservoir level has been considered constant as 1956 m asl and maximum tail
water level is considered as 1480 m in Danjar nullah.
146
6.3.1
Compensation Flows
The power and energy are estimated on the basis of mean monthly discharges
for average year. For sediment flushing, it has been assumed that power station
may have to be shut down for a few hours during summer months.
A compensation flows from 0.2 m3/s in winter months and 0.40 m3/s and more in
summer months have been considered to be released from the weir as residual
flows in Nagdar nullah. The compensation flows would be released considering
the downstream ecological and biological use and downstream water uses.
6.3.2
Head Losses
Head losses have been estimated based on the monthly flows through water
ways. The losses from intake to turbine axis vary from 0.65 to 5.95 m. The losses
are more in summer flows and are reduced to minimum in winter months.
The estimated power and energy are estimated for various design discharges
and are presented as Annexure 6-1.
6.3.2.1
Project Benefits
Project benefits have been estimated equivalent to the cost of alternative gas
turbine generation. The cost of not constructing gas power generation is taken
as benefit to hydropower generation.
Capacity and energy benefits for each design discharge have been estimated
and added up to get the total benefits. The difference of benefits to cost of
hydropower scheme for a particular discharge is compared with that of other
discharges.
The Capacity Cost per kW per month in this case is US $ 80 and the
corresponding Energy Costs per kWh peak and off peak in US cents for each
month based on the recent alternate source of power and energy are as follows:
Month
Peak
10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98 10.98
Off-Peak 7.98 7.62 7.25 6.63 6.24 5.95 5.70 5.70 5.95 6.63 6.63 7.26
The aim of the project sizing is to recommend a robust and stable solution for the
so-called optimum installed capacity of the project. For the respective design
discharges, monthly power, peak and off-peak energy have been estimated.
147
With the derived capacity and energy cost, total benefits for each design
discharge have been estimated in a spread sheet. For each design discharge,
net benefit and generated unit cost have been compared to get the optimum
design discharge.
6.3.2.2
Cost Estimation
For the selected alternative, cost estimation have been carried out by a computer
programme for various design discharges ranging from 4 to 13 m3/s with interval
of 1 m3/s. The cost estimates include the cost for Civil works, E&M equipment,
transportation, erection and commissioning. Supervision charges, contingencies,
import charges and owner cost have been added to prepare the project base
cost.
Interest during construction and transmission line cost is added to the base cost
for total project cost. The cost estimates have been made for each discharge
scenario. Cost for the transmission line of 132 kV from Nagdar to Authmuqam
has also been considered.
A comparison of cost estimates for various design discharges has been made
and is presented in Table - 6.1.
Table - 6.1: Comparison of Cost
Sr. No.
Discharge
(m3/s)
Cost
(million US$)
45.43
46.34
47.26
48.44
49.90
51.89
10
54.49
11
57.21
12
60.36
10
13
63.98
A comparison of cost estimates for various design discharges and options has
been made and is presented in Table - 6.2, Table - 6.3 and Table - 6.4.
148
Power
Annual
Energy
Plant
Factor
Annual
Benefits
Annual
Cost
Cost/kWh
(m /s)
(MW)
(GWh)
(%)
(million Rs.)
(million Rs.)
(Rs.)
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
15.6
19.4
23.3
27.2
31.1
35.0
38.9
42.8
46.7
50.6
86.77
101.07
112.88
124.36
135.84
146.05
151.75
157.45
163.14
168.83
63.68
59.34
55.23
52.15
49.85
47.64
44.55
42.02
39.91
38.12
543.50
625.57
693.29
759.08
824.87
883.80
916.35
948.68
981.01
1013.33
638.23
651.47
664.99
682.00
702.73
730.84
767.09
805.14
848.96
899.24
7.356
6.446
5.891
5.484
5.173
5.005
5.055
5.114
5.204
5.326
Benefit/
Cost
NPV
(million US$)
0.852
0.960
1.043
1.113
1.174
1.209
1.195
1.178
1.156
1.127
-9.254
-2.530
2.764
7.530
11.933
14.945
14.583
14.024
12.901
11.147
Benefit/
Cost
NPV
Power
Annual
Energy
Plant
Factor
Annual
Benefits
Annual
Cost
Cost/kWh
(m /s)
(MW)
(GWh)
(%)
(million Rs.)
(million Rs.)
(Rs.)
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
15.6
19.4
23.3
27.2
31.1
35.0
38.9
42.8
46.7
50.6
86.77
101.07
112.88
124.36
135.84
146.05
151.75
157.45
163.14
168.83
63.68
59.34
55.23
52.15
49.85
47.64
44.55
42.02
39.91
38.12
543.50
625.57
693.29
759.08
824.87
883.80
916.35
948.68
981.01
1013.33
699.67
714.14
728.92
747.52
770.22
801.03
840.79
882.53
930.60
985.78
8.064
7.066
6.457
6.011
5.670
5.486
5.541
5.605
5.704
5.839
(million US$)
0.777
0.876
0.951
1.015
1.071
1.103
1.090
1.075
1.054
1.028
-15.257
-8.653
-3.481
1.129
5.339
8.087
7.383
6.463
4.925
2.692
Benefit/
Cost
NPV
Power
Annual
Energy
Plant
Factor
Annual
Benefits
Annual
Cost
Cost/kWh
(m /s)
(MW)
(GWh)
(%)
(million Rs.)
(million Rs.)
(Rs.)
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
15.6
19.4
23.3
27.2
31.1
35.0
38.9
42.8
46.7
50.6
86.77
101.07
112.88
124.36
135.84
146.05
151.75
157.45
163.14
168.83
63.68
59.34
55.23
52.15
49.85
47.64
44.55
42.02
39.91
38.12
528.97
599.20
670.49
720.10
769.71
807.44
823.59
839.74
855.89
872.04
638.23
651.47
664.99
682.00
702.73
730.84
767.09
805.14
848.96
899.24
7.464
6.664
6.033
5.740
5.516
5.464
5.618
5.778
5.973
6.204
149
(million US$)
0.829
0.920
1.008
1.056
1.095
1.105
1.074
1.043
1.008
0.970
-10.675
-5.106
0.537
3.722
6.545
7.484
5.520
3.380
0.677
-2.658
6.4
20
12
4
Run Of River
-4
Increased Cost
Reduced Flows
-12
-20
4
10
11
12
13
DISCHARGE (m3/s)
150
9.0
COST/KWh (Rs.)
8.0
Run of River
Increased Cost
7.0
Reduced Flow s
6.0
5.0
4.0
10
11
12
13
DISCHARGE (m /s)
1.3
B/C RATIO
1.2
1.1
1.0
Run of River
0.9
Increased Cost
Reduced Flow s
0.8
0.7
4
10
11
12
13
DISCHARGE (m /s)
151
The graph indicates that B/C ratio increases to maximum for a discharge of
9 m3/s and then it decreases for higher discharge. All three options indicate that
B/C ratio has similar trend and is maximum at design discharge of 9 m3/s.
6.5
SELECTED CAPACITY
The optimised capacity has been carried out for three scenarios, i.e., run-of-river
option, 10% increased cost and reduced flows. Net present value, cost per kWh,
and B/C ratio have been considered in selecting the optimum capacity of the
plant.
For base case 100% project cost and run-off-river option, NPV and B/C ratio are
maximum and unit cost is minimum at a discharge of 9 m3/s. Therefore, a flow of
9 m3/s has been selected as optimum design discharge to determine the plant
output and to dimension the various components of the project.
The change of mode of operation or increase in cost or change in flow pattern will
naturally affect power and energy output and consequently the project benefit
and unit cost scenario, but will not change the optimum design discharge.
6.6
152
30
26.04
25.20
26.04
Energy (GWh)
25
24.77
20
14.44
15
10.51
10
5
2.55
2.45
JAN
FEB
4.57
4.10
2.80
2.59
NOV
DEC
0
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
Month
153
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
468.3
468.3
468.3
468.3
468.3
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
11.68
11.30
11.68
11.68
11.30
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.66
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
2.53
1.16
87.21
63.42
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
467.7
467.7
467.7
467.7
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
19.6
19.6
19.6
19.6
19.6
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
14.58
14.11
14.58
14.58
14.11
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
2.25
2.25
2.25
2.25
2.25
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
2.95
1.41
Plant Factor (%)
154
101.53
59.14
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
467.0
467.0
467.0
467.0
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
23.5
23.5
23.5
23.5
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
17.47
16.91
17.47
17.47
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
2.98
2.98
2.98
2.98
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
3.29
1.66
113.33
55.09
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
466.2
466.2
466.2
466.2
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
27.3
27.3
27.3
27.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
20.34
19.69
20.34
20.34
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
3.84
3.84
3.84
3.84
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
3.62
1.94
Plant Factor (%)
155
124.73
52.07
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
465.2
465.2
465.2
465.2
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
31.2
31.2
31.2
31.2
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
23.20
22.45
23.20
23.20
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
4.83
4.83
4.83
4.83
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
3.96
2.27
136.07
49.81
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
464.0
464.0
464.0
464.6
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
35.0
35.0
35.0
33.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
26.04
25.20
26.04
24.77
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
9.00
9.00
9.00
8.55
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
5.96
5.96
5.96
5.44
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
4.25
2.61
Plant Factor (%)
156
146.05
47.64
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
464.0
462.8
462.8
464.6
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
35.0
38.8
38.8
33.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
26.08
27.92
28.85
24.77
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
9.01
10.00
10.00
8.55
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
5.97
7.21
7.21
5.44
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
4.42
2.82
151.63
44.63
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
464.0
461.4
461.4
464.6
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
35.0
42.5
42.5
33.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
26.08
30.62
31.64
24.77
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
9.01
11.00
11.00
8.55
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
5.97
8.60
8.60
5.44
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
4.59
3.05
Plant Factor (%)
157
157.12
42.17
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
464.0
459.9
459.9
464.6
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
35.0
46.2
46.2
33.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
26.08
33.30
34.41
24.77
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
9.01
12.00
12.00
8.55
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
5.97
10.12
10.12
5.44
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
4.75
3.30
162.56
40.13
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Discharge
(m3/s)
Nullah Power
Head Loss
Net Head
Power
Energy
(m)
(m)
(MW)
(GWh)
469.3
469.3
469.3
468.5
464.0
458.4
458.2
464.6
467.7
469.2
469.3
469.3
3.4
3.6
5.5
14.6
35.0
49.6
49.9
33.3
20.1
6.1
3.9
3.5
2.55
2.45
4.10
10.51
26.08
35.73
37.14
24.77
14.44
4.57
2.80
2.59
1.07
1.13
1.60
4.22
9.71
13.92
14.68
9.25
5.62
1.76
1.19
1.09
0.87
0.93
1.40
3.72
9.01
12.92
13.00
8.55
5.12
1.56
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.66
0.73
1.51
5.97
11.64
11.77
5.44
2.33
0.76
0.66
0.65
5.44
4.91
3.56
Plant Factor (%)
158
167.72
38.36
159
7.1
GENERAL
The layout of Nagdar Hydropower Project has been designed to utilise the
optimum potential for generation of electric power. The mean annual flow of
Nagdar nullah is 5.44 m3/s and the bed gradient in 6 km stretch of Nagdar nullah
is about 8%.
The design discharge has been optimised as 9 m3/s to produce 35 MW by using
a gross head of 470 m. The project would be operated as run-of-river and all
structures have been designed at the optimum discharge of 9 m3/s.
The project layout is shown in Dwg. No. 7-1 and longitudinal profile is presented
in Dwg. No. 7-2 and Dwg. No. 7-3.
The main project components are:
Surge tank
Most of the structures have been proposed as underground except weir intake,
sandtrap, transformers and switchyards. The project can be developed to its
optimum capacity of 35 MW to meet the regional power demand of AJ&K.
The installed capacity of 35 MW will be available during summer months from
May to July. In winter months, a minimum of 3.4 MW will be available during
December to February.
The proposed unit of 8.75 MW will be capable of generating minimum power of
3.4 MW with one of two (2) jets. The power and energy of the optimum capacity
can fully be utilised when the power station is connected with National Grid.
160
Location
Elevation (m asl)
1956.00
1955.92
1955.80
1954.90
1951.40
1486.00
1480.00
All structures have been designed and their calculations are provided in the
Tables - 7.2 to 7.6.
The description of structure dimensions is provided in the following paragraphs:
7.2
DIVERSION WEIR
The weir is located about 200 m below the confluence of Shelyath Nar and
Nagdar nullah. At the proposed weir axis, the bed level is 1950 m asl and
Nagdar nullah flows with steep gradient of about 8 %. To divert the design
discharge of 9 m3/s into the low pressure tunnel, a concrete weir of 6 m height
above the nullah bed has been proposed. The intake structure has been
designed to take the design discharge and excessive flows will be spilled over the
weir down to nullah.
For the proposed weir axis of the nullah, the slopes on the left bank are morainic
material and on the right bank, sound rock granitic gneiss is available. The nullah
width is about 12 m and the slopes on right and left banks are 50 and 35
respectively. To accommodate a design flood of 204 m3/s, the clear length of
weir including the sluicing portion is 19 m.
During summer months from May to July, the water will flow over 18 m length of
the weir. On the right side of the weir, a flushing section is provided to keep the
intake free of sediment. The bed level of gate is at El. 1949.0 m asl.
According to geological investigation of weir site, the structure will be founded on
alluvial strata. This material has high leakage / seepage rate. To reduce the
leakage / seepage up to desired level and also to control piping effect a cut - off
wall up to 10 m depth along the weir axis has been foreseen.
161
7.2.1
Design Considerations
Following major design considerations have been adopted while designing the
weir for the proposed layout on Nagdar nullah:
The diversion weir has been designed for 1000 year return period flood.
The crest elevation of weir has been fixed with the consideration of
power intake channel requirement.
The location of weir has been selected in a way to have smooth and
straight flow conditions at upstream and downstream of the weir
structure.
There would be minimum raise in the water level and whole of the weir
structure has been designed for smooth passage of the flood with full
energy dissipation.
The following design parameters have been adopted while making the
calculations for the weir.
7.2.2
204 m3/s
3.19 m
14 m
1956.0 m asl
1949.0 m asl
1948.0 m asl
162
1950.0 m asl
1956.0 m asl
6.0 m
14.0 m
Foundation depth
4.0 m
Flood discharge
204 m3/s
Structure material
RCC
The design calculations of weir are presented in Table - 7.2. The weir plan and
sections are shown in Dwg. No. 7-4 and Dwg. No. 7-5.
Table - 7.2: Hydraulic Calculation for Overflow Weir
Q=
B=
g=
m3/s
m
m/s2
153
14
9.81
163
3.0
1950.0
1956.0
1959.0
1959.5
m
m
m
m
m
7.2.3
164
1956.0
1951.0
1950.0
1946.0
204
4.0
4.0
m asl
m asl
m asl
m asl
m3/s
m
m
0.06
1
0.04
70
0.21
0.66
6.52
m/s
111
m3/s
7.2.4
7.2.5
Gravel Scour
On the right side of sediment sluice, a gravel sluice has been proposed to flush
the sediments in front of the power intake. Between the main sediment sluice
and the gravel sluice, there is a divide wall constructed mainly to keep the
sediment free area in front of the power intake. The gravel scour will be equipped
with 1 m x 1 m gate.
7.3
POWER INTAKE
The intake has been designed keeping in view to minimise the head losses at
entrance and to avoid entering bed load and other floating debris in the intake.
The gross area of intake is 12.0 m2. The lower sill level of intake is 4.0 m above
the flushing bed to reduce bed load entry into the power channel.
The other components of the structure include a trashrack and a stop log gate.
The maximum velocity at the entrance of intake is 0.75 m/s at the design
discharge of 9 m3/s. The structure has been designed to divert the flow towards
the connecting channel. The direction of the flow has been set at an angle to the
nullah flow to minimise the inflow of sediments.
The width of stop log is 3.2 m and height is 2.2 m. It will be roller gate with the
bottom pressure of 1 bar. The gate must allow operation with full water pressure
at the upstream side. It should be hydraulically operated by oil pressure and
should be connected to the common oil pressure system. The guide rollers
should be equipped with the self-lubricating bushings. The gate should be
guided between the downstream lateral guide rails and the upstream counter
guide, where the machined seal sliding strips of stainless steel are welded.
165
The bars of the rack have circular shape with a diameter of 1.0 cm and the
distance between two bars is 1.0 cm. Above the rack, there is a platform at
elevation of 1959.5 m asl, which can be reached by means of iron steps. From
this platform, the rack can be cleaned manually. The rack should be divided into
panels of equal size, which will be connected by stiffening bars. The trash rack
panels should be interchangeable and fixed by bolts made of stainless steel.
7.4
CONNECTING CHANNEL
Connecting channel is a rectangular RCC structure that off - takes from weir and
flows at a slope of 1 in 500 along the right side of the nullah. It has been
designed as open channel. The channel has a maximum capacity of 9 m3/s with
2.5 m width and 1.80 m water depth. The connecting channel has a length of
40 m up to the sandtrap.
The walls are vertical having internal height of 2.3 m and wall thickness is 0.5 m
from top to bottom. The thickness of base is 0.5 m. The bed slope of connecting
channel is 1:500 maintained over entire 40 m length. A 0.15 m thick PCC layer
has been provided under the base of the channel to give the structure smooth
surface and to transfer the load to the ground uniformly.
The salient features of the channel are as hereunder:
m3/s
Discharge
Slope
1:500
Length
40
Bed Width
2.5
Depth of Water
1.80
Velocity
2.19
m/s
Free Board
0.5
166
7.4.1
Reject Weir
At connecting channel, upstream of the sandtrap, an over flow section is provided
to drop the flows back into the nullah. The reject weir has a width of 6.0 m and it
will spill all the excessive flows from the connecting channel. An undersluice
would allow the excessive flows to be spilled over the reject weir.
7.5
DESANDER / SANDTRAP
Desander / sandtrap is provided to remove the suspended particles with diameter
above 0.22 mm. For a design discharge of 9 m3/s, two chambers have been
provided. Each chamber has a length of 54 m and width of 4.0 m.
The total length is divided into the following reaches:
3m
Chamber length
54 m
No. of chambers
5.63 to 7.24 m
Top of sandtrap
1956.8 m asl
1954.1 m asl
1953.2 m asl
1950.3 m asl
1948.7 m asl
1947.7 m asl
167
Units
m3/s
Nos.
m3/s
mm
9
2
4.5
0.22
60
2.82
ton/m3
0.20
4.00
5.63
0.0320
0.0557
m/s
m
m
m/s
0.0208
53.99
54.0
m/s
m
m
32.00
1.41
0.2557
0.2064
B
b = (B-w) / 2
h
w
Slope of sedimentation tank
4.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
m
m
m
m
%
7.24
25.74
0.1748
0.2557
m
m2
m/s
m/s
m/s
m/s
The width of each chamber is 4.0 m and the water height is varying between
5.63 m at the beginning and 7.24 m at the end of the chamber. The wall
thickness of the outer walls is 0.60 m. The average net cross sectional area of
each chamber is approximately 25.74 m2, excluding the area for flushing. This
corresponds to average velocity of 0.1748 m/s for the discharge of 9 m3/s. A
grain size of 0.22 mm was selected as minimum diameter to be settled in the
sandtrap. The plan and sections of sandtrap are presented in Dwg. No. 7-8.
The flushing channels have a trapezoidal cross section with an area of 3.75 m2.
The slope of these channels, which can be flushed by small vertical lifting gates,
is 3 %. A sand flushing pipe with a diameter of 1.5 m leads from the sandtrap
back to Nagdar nullah.
7.5.1
7.5.1.1
Inlet Gate
There would be two inlet gates, with 2.0 m width and 2.8 m height. The gate
must allow operation with full water pressure at the upstream side. It should be
hydraulically operated by oil pressure and should be connected to the common
oil-pressure system with gravel flush gate. The guide rollers should be equipped
with self-lubricating bushings.
The gate should be guided between the
downstream lateral guide rails and the upstream counter guide, where the
machined seal sliding strips of stainless steel are welded.
168
The servomotor, mounted vertically on a support should allow the hoisting of the
gate above the maximum water level. The weight should be increased, if
necessary by concrete to fill in the lower part in order to enable the sure closing
without assistance of oil pressure.
7.5.1.2
Outlet Gate
At the end of flushing chamber, two outlet gates are required. The gate width is
4.2 m and height is 3.6 m. The gate must allow operation with full water pressure
at the upstream side. It should be hydraulically operated by oil pressure and
should be connected to the common oil-pressure system placed in the station
building. The guide rollers should be equipped with self-lubricating bushings.
The gate should be guided between the downstream lateral guide rails and the
upstream counter guide, where the machined seal sliding strips of stainless steel
are welded.
The servomotor, mounted vertically on a support should allow the hoisting of the
gate above the maximum water level. The weight should be increased, if
necessary by concrete to fill in the lower part in order to enable the sure closing
without assistance of oil pressure. Gate position switches must be provided for
remote control.
7.5.1.3
7.6
POWER TUNNEL
At the downstream of sandtrap, there is trapezoidal shape tank in which water is
dropped before it enters into the low pressure tunnel. The excessive flows would
be spilled over through ungated section into Nagdar nullah. The stop log is
placed at intake portal of tunnel.
Tunnel has horse shoe shape having 2.8 m width and 3.1 m height with
approximate length of 3840 m from inlet to surge tank. The bed level of tunnel
intake is 1948.67 m asl and it ends at 1933.31 m at the surge tank. It has design
capacity of 9 m3/s and act as low pressure tunnel.
169
The tunnel would be unlined with a slope 1:250. The cross sectional area of
headrace tunnel will be 7.84 m2 and velocity for the design discharge would be
about 1.15 m/s. Although the design discharge does not require such large cross
sectional area, it is considered the minimum dimension for such a length of
tunnel.
Headrace tunnels have been designed keeping in view the length of tunnel,
excavated diameter of tunnel, velocity and head losses in the tunnel. The
geological rock formations have been studied.
The salient features of the headrace tunnel are as under:
Discharge
9 m3/s
Slope
1:250
Length
3840 m
Area
7.84 m2
Velocity
1.15 m/s
The tunnel can be made unlined wherever sound rock is available. The tunnel
would be generally shotcreted and wherever, it required, the section would be
concrete lined. The maximum cover is about 800 m.
The longitudinal profile of the low pressure headrace tunnel is presented in the
Dwg. No. 7-2 and cross section is shown in Dwg. No. 7-14.
A new road of approximately 3 km length has to be constructed from Neelum
village to weir site area and road from Keran to Neelum village has to be
upgraded. The maximum gradient should not be more than 10 %.
Excavating the road, steep rock walls, talus cones, screes and blocky material
have to be crossed, resulting in partly difficult excavations, retaining walls and
other protection measures, such as rock bolts, mesh wire, shotcrete and anchors
respectively.
The access tunnel must be constructed early enough to enable the determination
of geological parameters for the final location of the surge tank. The access
tunnel will thus serve as an exploration adit at the same time.
170
7.6.1
Headrace pressure tunnels are mostly unlined (shotcrete only) or concrete lined.
Both types are described in the following paragraphs:
7.6.1.1
It was measured that the external water pressure is a bit lower around
the tunnel than it should be theoretically. The reason for that
phenomenon may be a long term remaining drainage effect around the
consolidated zone of the tunnel.
If this load case is a special load case during emptying the tunnel,
especially for long tunnels with a big water volume, where it takes a
long time to empty the tunnel and consequently the increase in external
water pressure is very slow.
In case of very high external water pressures the installation of vents may be
provided to keep the thickness of lining within limits. The vents equalise the
external pressure to the internal pressure.
171
7.6.1.2
Support
The initial lining must maintain the inherent strength of the rock mass, acting as a
thin membrane inseparable from the surrounding material to prevent its loss of
strength which, if permitted to occur, would require additional support installation.
Once installed to a closed ring the initial lining must maintain the stability of the
whole structure without further assistance of supplementary supports. The
detailed quantity of support elements is dictated by the rock class.
Five different characteristics of the ground/lining response to the excavation and
load redistribution must be observed by use of special monitoring devices.
These are:
7.7
SURGE TANK
Surge tank has been proposed to accommodate surges and will facilitate to
maintain water level in headrace tunnel. The surge structure has been designed
in connection with the hydraulic analysis as follows:
The proposed layout of the surge tank regarding the necessary surge volume, the
highest and lowest surge levels are based on the most unfavourable conditions.
172
21 second
2 second
19 second
However, to be on the safe side, a closing time of 13 second and an opening time
of 12 second were used for the surge tank calculation at the present stage.
Table - 7.5: Hydraulic Calculation for Surge Tank
1
1956.0
464
3
3.1
1.19
1965.27
1955.0
1933.3
3840.0
6.00
1948.87
16.40
Tank volume, m
30.83
9
10
11
0.092
0.014
463
31.97
581
Rock excavation volume, allowing for a full concrete lining of tank and riser, m
3
210
12
Conduit area, m
7.55
13
Acceleration, n
0.016
14
15
Acceleration, c
2.10
792
2
Deceleration n
461
3
0.0133
1.44
1.474
Deceleration c
1.015
20.72
23.77
16
Tank area F, m
17
Acceleration
18
N acc.
20.81
N dec.
14.33
19
K acc.
33.38
K dec.
14.12
20
y acc. = downsurge , m
Y dec. = upsurge = m =
10.22
3.53
Ref: "Estimating weight of steel surge tank" HRW Vol.6, # 4, Sept. 1998, pages 26 - 29.
Ref: Hydroelectric Handbook. 2nd. Ed. 1950. W. P. Creager & J. D. Justin, page 734 - 743.
173
The comparatively long acceleration time of the water mass in the headrace
tunnel resulting in a corresponding long oscillation period requires the
observance of an intermediate time in the sequence of starting the turbines.
The preliminary calculation considering worst conditions leads to a necessary
interval of about 200 sec before the next unit can be started. Any type of
operation due to regulating conditions or due to timely peak operation with a
change in discharge of less than 2.3 m3/s with the above mentioned related
closing or opening characteristics should be acceptable.
Considering a Thoma safety factor of 8.3 and the maximum and minimum water
level respectively at the intake, the calculated surge levels are:
7.7.1
1965.3 m asl
1948.9 m asl
Construction of the access road from elevation 2000 m asl to the portal
of the surge tank at elevation 1970 m asl.
Excavation of the surge shaft to the final diameter with mucking into the
headrace tunnel by gravity.
The support requirements depend on the geological conditions and will consist of
reinforced shotcrete and rock bolts with length as required by geological
conditions.
7.7.2
Lining
The internal water pressures in the surge structures is from 0 to 5.5 bars, the
structures are located near the surface, therefore external water pressure will not
occur. In parts of weak rock zones initial consolidation grouting is required. To
avoid seepage in case of cracks in the concrete lining, a plastic seal is proposed
between rock and concrete lining. The lining in surge shaft should be with a
minimum thickness of 15 cm. A 2 to 3 mm polyvinyl chloride or polyethylene
sheeting is fasting to the rock or shotcrete.
7.8
PRESSURE SHAFT
From surge tank to inlet to the turbine, pressure shaft of 2.1 m diameter would be
excavated. First there would be 420 m vertical and then 260 m horizontal
pressure tunnel. The pressure shaft would be first concrete lined and then steel
lined to convey the water from surge bay to powerhouse.
174
The shaft and pressure tunnel would be concrete lined. The steel lining would be
provided for 50 m upstream of bifurcation portion. The steel would be maximum
up to 25 mm. The thickness of the pipe has been calculated after considering the
water pressure over and above the gross head. A 15% pressure rise has been
taken in the design calculations.
From surge tank to powerhouse, the pressure shaft and pressure tunnel length
would be 680 m and its internal diameter is 2.10 m for the designed discharge of
9 m3/s. The velocity in pressure pipe will be 2.76 m/s and head loss from valve
chamber to powerhouse will be 3.5 m. The longitudinal section and cross section
of the pressure shaft are presented in Dwg. No. 7-3 and Dwg. No. 7-14
respectively.
7.9
7.10
9.00
60.00
0.0050
2.100
0.525
3.464
9.56
2.76
m3/s
m
m
m2
m3/s
m/s
175
7.10.1
7.11
POWERHOUSE
The powerhouse is placed inside the mountains as cavern type on the right side
of Neelum River about 200 m upstream of confluence of Danjar nullah with
Neelum River. The cavern would be accessed through access tunnel. The
access tunnel would be excavated from Danjar nullah. The building is of RCC
frame structures of size 62.6 m x 14.6 m x 18.0 m over RCC foundation. There
will be provision of 4 units of 8.75 MW each.
The powerhouse will be excavated with drill and blast method. The cavern width
will be about 14.6 m and length will be 62.6 m. The powerhouse will be founded
at 1481.0 m asl and turbine level at 1486.0 m asl. The machine hall floor level
will be at 1485.0 m asl.
Place required for generator panel, auxiliaries etc. have also been considered.
Control room relay protection, office, batter room, store and telecommunication
will be accommodated in powerhouse. An over-head gantry crane of capacity
30 tons has been provided for placing / replacing the heavy parts of machines.
For powerhouse foundation, the required space for powerhouse building has to
be made with foundation level 1481.0 m asl and powerhouse top will be
1499.0 m asl.
The other important features of powerhouse are as under:
Length
62.2
Width
14.6
Height
18.0
Foundation Level
1481.0 m asl
1486.0 m asl
176
7.12
TAILRACE TUNNEL
The outflow from powerhouse will be discharged into Danjar nullah through a
tailrace tunnel. The tailrace tunnel would be free flow with estimated length of
537 m. It has a horse shoe type 3.0 m wide and 3.35 m high. Tailrace would
generally shotcrete lined and it would be lined at geologically weak zone. The
concrete lining thickness would be 0.15 m at the crown. After 537 m long tailrace
tunnel there would be a 25 m long tailrace channel. The tailrace will join Danjar
nullah and then Neelum River with free flow conditions and will end at elevation
1480.0 m asl.
177
HYDRO-MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT
178
HYDRO-MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT
8.1
GENERAL
This section describes the hydro-mechanical equipment required for the Nagdar
Hydropower Project. It includes the information about mechanical equipment
directly related to generating units and for general services. It also covers the
characteristics of these equipment and various factors used to establish the size
and configuration of such type of equipment. The weir is proposed about 5.6 km
upstream of Nagdar nullah confluence with the Neelum River and the
powerhouse has been proposed near Danjar nullah downstream of Keran village.
Based on designed discharge of 9 m3/sec and 470 m gross head, 35 MW of
power can be generated with 4 turbo generating units. The mean annual energy
would be 146.05 GWh.
8.2
8.2.1
Discharge
A single value of flow has no significance. It is necessary to know the flow
regime, commonly represented by the Flow Duration Curve as shown in
Figure - 8.1 below. In the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project the flow
variation is between 1.07 m3/sec to 14.68 m/sec. Keeping in view the flow
pattern against various months, the plant capacity has been optimised at
discharge of 9 m3/sec, which is available for 24.2 % of the year.
179
8.2.2
Head Calculation
8.2.2.1
8.2.2.2
8.2.2.3
Gross Head
The turbine runner centre line has been proposed at 1486 m asl. On the basis of
this proposed runner centre line and head water levels, calculated gross head will
be as follows:
8.2.2.4
470 meter
Head Losses
Major head losses in the water ways are due to friction. Total length of tunnel is
about 3840 m and proposed diameter of tunnel is 3.1 meter. The pressure tunnel
will be 260 m in length where as pressure shaft will have a length of 420 m both
will have a finished diameter of 2.1 m. Total calculated head losses are
5.96 mWC.
8.2.2.5
meter
180
Net head
Cavitation problems
Cost
Among the above criterian net head and discharge are the basic ones, while
others support them.
8.4.1
Net Head
As a first criterion for the selection of type of hydro turbine, is the head at which it
is operated. In case of proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project the rated net head
will be 464 m. Only Pelton type turbine is operate-able under this head condition.
The turbine selection criteria is shown in Figure - 8.2 hereunder.
181
8.4.2
Range of Discharges
Nagdar Hydropower Project is a low discharge and high head hydropower
project. Discharge varies from 1.07 m/sec to 14.68 m/sec. The selected rated
discharge 9 m/sec is available for about 24.2 % of the year. Since there is lot of
variation of flow, thus keeping in view the flow pattern in various months and
selected rated head, Pelton turbine is more appropriate solution.
8.4.3
8.4.4
Number of Units
Normally it is most cost effective to have a minimum number of units at a given
installation; however, multiple units may be necessary due to various reasons.
Thus for selecting number of units following factors have been considered.
8.4.4.1
Transportation problems
Cost effectiveness
182
One major factor for evaluation of number of units is how the power station will
anticipate in operation. With 4 or more units operational reliability is more as
compared to 2 or 3 units. This operational advantage will also contribute in the
annual energy produced by the project.
With 4 or more units, generation can be continued more efficiently for flows down
to the minimum historic discharge where as with 2 or 3 units this flexibility
reduces.
The following data as presented in Table - 8.1 shows the comparison of basic
data for the three alternatives:
Table - 8.1: Comparison of Basic Data
Net Head:
Rated Flow:
Number Of Units
Units
No.
3 Jet
2 Jet
2 Jet
m3/sec
3.00
2.25
1.80
Shaft Axis
Vertical
Horizontal
Horizontal
MW
12.29
9.22
7.37
Plant Capacity
MW
35.00
35.00
35.00
90
90
90
96
96
96
rpm
600
600
600
20.8
22.1
19.7
Number Of jets
Each Unit Discharge
Unit Orientation
Turbine Speed
Specific Speed
Runaway Speed
rpm
1080
1080
1080
Runner Diameter
1.473
1.473
1.473
ton
30.47
24.21
20.25
Crane Capacity
Minimum Turbine Setting (Above
Max. Tail Water Level)
ton
40
30
30
1.8
1.8
1.7
183
8.4.4.2
8.4.4.3
Maintenance Viewpoint
More the number of units higher the O&M (operation and maintenance) cost,
lesser the number of units will have lesser maintenance cost. But for the system
stability and to avoid the complete shutdown of powerhouse more than one unit is
strongly recommended.
8.4.4.4
Transportation
The transportation of heavy construction and permanent equipment (Turbine
Runner, Generator Rotor, Stator, Transformers) to the site is a matter which
needs careful attention.
In case of the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project transportation of light and
heavy equipment from Karachi to the project area is possible in the following
manner:
By Air
Entirely by Road
Due to geographical location and costing, air transportation is not feasible, while
other two options are considerable and have their merits and demerits.
Entirely by road option requires more time and inconvenience to the other road
users. Thus by rail to Rawalpindi and then by road to the project site is more
convenient, feasible and time saving.
184
The initial study shows that the equipment weights of considered alternatives are
as presented in Table - 8.2:
Table - 8.2: Comparison of Basic Data
Components
Number of
Units
Generator
Rotor Weight
Units
Alternative 01
No.
Tons
Alternative 02
Alternative 03
30.47
24.21
20.25
Considering all the aspects, four units are the most favorable solution from the
technical and economical point of view. However, great care is necessary due to
the complexity of proposed project area.
8.5
TURBINE PARAMETERS
Type of Turbine
= Horizontal Pelton
No. of Units
=4
No. of Jets
=2
Plant Capacity
P Total = 35 MW
Plant Discharge
Q Total = 9.0 m /s
Unit Discharge
Q Unit
= 2.25 m /s
Q Min
= 0.87 m /s
Hn
= 464 m
= 9.22 MW
= 600 rpm
Nr
= 1080 rpm
Turbine Efficiency
= 90
Runner Diameter
Dr
= 1.473 m
Turbine Setting
3
3
= 2.0 m
185
8.5.1
Calculations
The type and dimensions of the Pelton turbine can be easily determined from
application guides prepared by manufacturers. The basic turbine calculations for
the specific speed, turbine runner diameter etc, are as under:
8.5.1.1
Ns (Metric HP)
Dr
Diameter of jet
dj
Di
Specific Speed
As a general rule of thumb, the optimum specific speed for a single jet impulse
turbine lies within the range of 4 30. It must, however, be noted that smaller
specific speed machines are bulkier, and therefore, their transportation to the site
may be problematic.
The physical size of the machine, therefore, is a critically important factor. The
specific speed for optimum efficiency of Pelton turbine shall not exceed 24 rpm
per jet. As an international practice maximum number of jets on a Pelton turbine
may be 6 only.
The specific speed of a turbine is a useful index. At this speed, the unit operates
at best possible efficiency under a unit head generating unit output power. The
specific speed of turbine has been worked on the basis of similarity and is given
by the formula:
Ns (Metric HP) =
Ns :
P:
N:
Q:
H:
186
8.5.1.2
1/2 mVj 2
(2 gH)
(2 gH) 0.5
=
=
=
In order to account for the loss of head from inlet to jet exhaust, a co-efficient C
has to be introduced.
Vj = C x (2gH)0.5
The value of C is usually taken as 0.97 for Pelton turbines Now for a discharge of
2.25 m3/s and a net effective head of 464 m.
Vj =
92.551 m/s
A = 0.01216 m
A = (d2) / 4
d j2 = A x 4 /
dj2 = 0.015376 m2
dj = 0.124 m
So a jet diameter of 0.124 m is recommended for the turbine. Recommended
range of diameter by the manufacturers for jet is 0.03 - 0.20 m.
187
8.5.1.3
8.5.1.4
Runaway Speed
The turbine speed remains constant due to regulating action of spear and nozzle
under fluctuations of load. The speed shall, however, rapidly rise when the load
is suddenly rejected and the jet closes. In such an event, the speed of the
turbine shall rise to a maximum value, which is technically specified as runaway
speed.
Under these conditions, the centrifugal forces may be as large as 4 6.75 times
the forces at normal running speed.
The formula for runaway speed of a Pelton turbine has been worked out from
model tests as under:
N Runaway = K x N
Where K is a coefficient whose value varies from 1.8 to 2.0
With K = 1.8, the runaway speed of the turbine is about 1080 rpm. The
recommended values of specific speed, jet diameter, runner diameter, rotational
speed and runaway speed have been worked out from equations.
However, the actual physical sizes have been standardised by manufacturers
and it is possible that some refinement and adjustments are made when the
procurement order is finally placed.
8.6
TURBINE COMPONENTS
8.6.1
General
The type of turbine selected for the Nagdar Hydropower Project is horizontal axis
Pelton Turbine. This selection is based on the operating parameters which
include available head, discharge, flow condition, location and operational
behavior of the plant.
188
Some other factors such as saving in civil work of machine hall, limited discharge
and especially transportation are decisive factors for the selection of turbines.
The powerhouse will be equipped with four horizontal axis Pelton turbines with
two jets. Rated power producing capacity will be 8.75 MW each with 96%
assumed efficiency of generator and 99% assumed efficiency of transformer.
Each turbine is connected via a spherical valve to a common bifurcation joined
with the pressure tunnel. The turbine casing shall be fully embedded in concrete.
The spherical valves shall be firmly connected to the bifurcation from pressure
tunnel and the manifold of the turbine. Between the valve and the turbine casing
a removable pipe with flange at both ends should be provided which is capable of
bearing small axial movement.
The nozzles as well as the turbine runner should be designed for a dismantling
below the turbine without disassembling of the turbine shaft. Considering the big
fluctuation of the discharge, each unit should be able to work in case of limited
available discharge with a reduced number of nozzles.
8.6.2
Turbine Runner
The turbine runner should be of the impulse type with a number of buckets
around its periphery, buckets manufactured in die cast in one piece of stainless
steel. The turbine runner should be casted of stainless steel. The runner and
buckets will be of modern design and will meet the relevant standards.
The runner should be designed to withstand the loads imposed by any
combination of fully open nozzles in operation at any speed including maximum
runaway speed and maximum head without exceeding the stress limits. The
finished machined runner should be carefully statically balanced.
The connection with the turbine shaft should allow a disassembling downwards
and to place it on a trolley for the transportation on rails. A model of the turbine
with the provided runner should be tested in the laboratory in order to verify the
efficiency guarantees.
8.6.3
Turbine Shaft
The turbine shaft includes the main shaft section from the interface of turbine
runner to the interface of the generator rotor shaft coupling flange.
The turbine shaft should be designed for the maximum output of the turbine and
for the maximum radial forces due to hydraulic loading imposed by the use of one
or two nozzles in operation. In addition the shaft should be designed to operate
without harmful vibration and deformation at any speed up to the maximum
runaway speed including reverse runaway speed.
189
The turbine shaft with flanges should be made of forged steel. A collar should be
provided to support the runner and the turbine main shaft during removal of the
generator rotor and shaft. The shaft should have a hole bored at the center
throughout the length to permit usual inspection of the metal in the interior of the
shaft.
8.6.4
Casing
Turbine casing has two main functions, one is to support the deflector shafts and
the other is to guide the discharged water from the runner to tailrace effectively
without interference of water flow. The casing will be fully welded fabrication and
split horizontally by a flanged joint. This specific feature will facilitate removal of
the runner and allow access to other internal mechanisms.
Removable covers on the side of the casing enable periodic inspection of the
internal mechanisms and runner buckets with ease. Machined flanges shall be
provided to which the inlet bend assemblies will be bolted and which also allow
positive location of the main bedplate. An extension of the casing skirt below the
mounting flange shall act as the tailrace pit liner.
For transportation reasons the housing should be designed in suitable sections
with flanges. Alternatively a welding at site may be considered. In such case the
necessary equipment for stress relieving and 100% X-Ray test of the welding
seams has to be provided. All parts welded in the workshop must be performed
and tested considering a welding factor one.
The casing is to be embedded in the concrete, so it should be reinforced to
transmit the forces to the foundation structure.
8.6.5
Nozzles
In Pelton turbine, water is directed by the nozzles having an adjustable outlet in a
thin jet which strikes against the buckets arranged around the periphery of the
runner. In the free jet leaving the nozzle, the potential energy is converted into
kinetic energy.
The power nozzles should be designed for an internal water pressure and to
produce a solid uniform jet. Two nozzles with outside lying servomotors should
operate with closing tendency up to the opening of no-load discharge. The
renewable nozzle tips should be of stainless steel. The nozzle tip is attached to
the end of the nozzle. Surface irregularities should be machined carefully to
reduce friction head losses to a minimum.
190
8.6.6
Needles
In the Pelton turbines, the needles are used to regulate the jet of water through
nozzles. It is actuated by the governor servomotor through the regulating shaft,
regulating lever and the linkage.
The needle rod should be chromium plated or of stainless steel and the
renewable needle tips should be made of stainless steel.
8.6.7
Jet Deflectors
To prevent excessive pressure rise in the pressure shaft and to ensure quick
response and proper speed regulation of the unit, each power nozzle should be
provided with a jet deflector. Deflectors should be actuated by a deflector
servomotor and should be coordinated with nozzle needles so that upon rise in
speed each jet will be quickly deflected first, followed by slow closure of the
needles until the jets pass only sufficient water to maintain speed. The deflectors
will enter the jet when the load decrease is faster than can be handled by the
needles.
The deflector should be designed of carbon steel with stainless steel edges. The
deflector should be capable of deflecting the jet completely within the time
required to keep the speed rise within the specified limits during the load
rejection. The deflector should be designed to withstand the maximum discharge
from the nozzles without damage.
8.7
GOVERNOR SYSTEM
8.7.1
General
The governors will be of the electro hydraulic PID (Proportional, Integral, and
Derivative) type. The latest designs incorporate digital technology, which allows
easy adjustment of control parameters with diagnostics capabilities. As such,
PID type electro hydraulic governors with microcomputer control will be specified,
and these will be equipped for joint as well as individual operation of the units. In
this respect, these will be ideally suited for integration with the unit start / stop
control equipment and with the project SCADA system. The control should be
possible, if:
Locally at the governor for the control of individual components and for
maintenance purposes.
From the main control board for starting, synchronizing, loading and
stopping the unit.
From the control room for supervising the function and operating the
unit in connection with the main grid and for the local network.
191
For the control of the units the following conditions have to be considered:
8.7.2
The maximum pressure rise in the pressure shaft in case of full load
rejection shall not exceed 10% of the gross head.
The maximum speed rise in case of full load rejection should not
exceed 20% of the normal speed.
The critical speed of the unit should be at least 10% higher than the
runaway speed, which is estimated to be 1188 rpm.
Governor Head
Each electronic governor head to be assembled in the main control board of the
power station shall be equipped with:
Speed setting
All necessary buttons, indicators, instruments and limit switches and the control
equipment for the automatic start, synchronizing and stopping sequence should
be provided.
8.7.3
192
8.8
INLET VALVE
Each unit will be equipped with a spherical type valve which should be closed
during longer stand-still periods and in emergency cases against the full water
flow. Before the valve is opened, the pressure upstream and downstream should
be equalised via a bypass.
The valve should be firm flanged to the bifurcation at the upstream side. The
foundation should enable a longitudinal displacement of the valve and should
carry no forces in axial direction.
The valves will be hydraulically operated using pressurised oil from respective
governor oil accumulator. The valve together with its bypass valve assembly,
drain and blow-off valves, upstream and down stream connecting pipes will be
designed to fit into the space available with proper regard to accessibility. The
valve will be supported on concrete pedestals and secured by anchor bolts.
8.9
POWERHOUSE CRANE
An overhead motor operated gantry crane shall be provided to assemble and
disassemble the heavy turbo generator components during the installation
process and also during the repair and maintenance of the powerhouse items.
The lifting capacity of the overhead gantry crane is the maximum possible weight
of a single piece of equipment to be lifted / moved by the Crane.
A 30 ton girder type overhead crane has been proposed to be provided in the
powerhouse. The lifting height of the hoists shall be determined either by the
height of the rotor or transformer or any other sub-assembly, which has greater
height than the formers.
The main crane hook shall be capable of lifting the heaviest component and both
the main and auxiliary hooks shall be capable of reaching as far down as
required to serve the inlet valve gallery.
Crane hooks approach distances normally vary from one manufacture to the
other, however, shall be fixed either as per CMAA or FEM standards. Access to
the crane shall be provided through ladder located near the entrance door. The
rail section and size shall be finalised corresponding to the wheel load as per
FEM or CMAA standards.
193
8.10
8.10.1
Basic Requirements
All small cooling and drainage water pipes shall be of non-corrosive material as
per AISI standards. These pipes shall be placed in covered trenches or ducts.
Embedded pipes shall pass straight through the concrete without any protection
while pipes in free air on brackets or supports shall be insulated to avoid
condensation.
8.10.2
8.10.3
194
8.11
8.11.1
General
The proposed Nagdar powerhouse is underground type and has no opening for
natural ventilation. Main sources of heating load are electrical and mechanical
equipment that give rise to indoor temperature.
To maintain the indoor temperature at acceptable levels in accordance with the
requirements of the occupants, electrical and mechanical equipment, Heating,
Ventilating and Air Conditioning system has been recommended for Nagdar
Hydropower Project.
The super structure of the plant shall be ventilated all the time and will not be
cooled or heated except in cases where:
Heat exchangers will use the raw water to cool the air. The water will be pumped
from tail water and cleaned by using twin strainers and filters up to the required
limit. The chillers and pumps shall be installed in modules for economical
operation and to avoid complete failure of the system. The system is to be
equipped with Automatic Controls for better and economical working.
Winter heating is normally not required as the equipment generate sufficient heat.
In certain areas, such as administrative areas, control room and relay room, duct
mounted electric resistance heaters will be used for winter heating.
The current Handbook of Fundamentals from the American Society of Heating,
Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) should be used as
reference for designing the HVAC system in the power plant.
The system shall be designed for positive pressure with in the plant to exclude
inverse environmental intrusion. High velocity of air in the valley shall also be
considered for design calculations.
The design conditions for minimum
acceptable performance are established for the purpose of design calculations.
195
Summer
Max. 35 C
Winter
Min. 5 C
Summer
About 24 C
o
Max. 32 C
Winter
About 22 C
o
Max. 32 C in summer
o
Min + 5 C
Ventilation Rates
8.11.2
Supply air
Outside air
196
To provide clean air to air conditioned space by the filtration of recirculated and outside (fresh) air.
8.12
AUXILIARY SYSTEM
8.12.1
Workshop Equipment
A central workshop with machinery comprising lathes, drilling machines, milling
machines, grinders, welding machines shall be planned during design phase to
perform dismantling and erections of turbine and generator parts, as well as most
other components related to the power plant and facilitate repair or renewal of
components which do not need specialised skill or experience. This includes
welding, drilling, turning, grinding, etc. and the repair of the power plant's trucks
and other vehicles / cars.
Electrical small tools, air driven tools and a mobile compressor of ample capacity
shall also be proposed for heavy work.
Additionally, different sized hydraulic jacks, mobile dewatering pumps with hoses,
slings etc. as well as consumables shall also be proposed.
8.12.2
Auxiliary Equipment
This equipment includes oil handling and fire fighting equipment.
described in the following paragraphs.
197
These are
8.12.3
198
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
199
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
9.1
GENERAL
The general layout of electrical equipment for Nagdar Hydropower Project is
based on four (04) generating units each mechanically coupled with a Pelton
turbine. The rated capacity of the power generating units will be 8.75 MW each.
The turbine speed of 600 rpm has been considered. The runaway speed of
turbine will be 1080 rpm.
It is proposed to connect each generator with an independent 10 / 13 MVA stepup transformer feeding power to a common 132 kV Bus Bar. Thus the Nagdar
HPP will have four Nos. of 132 / 11 kV, 10 / 13 MVA step up transformers. A
single circuit 132 kV transmission line run on double circuit towers will be
interconnected with 132 kV Muzaffarabad Grid Station via a new grid at
Authmuqam. The single line scheme is shown in Dwg. No. 9-1a.
The description and general lay out of the generator, step-up transformer,
transmission arrangement and auxiliary equipment are explained below.
9.2
GENERATORS
9.2.1
General
The generators are essentially three-phase synchronous, water-cooled, brushless
machines mechanically coupled with Pelton turbines and a flywheel for smooth
and stable running. The generators for this project have to be of a special design
because of their high runaway speeds. The turbine speed is controlled by
hydraulic governor regulating the water flow into the turbine.
The excitation system is proposed using independent uninterrupted power supply
(UPS) of appropriate rating for each generator. In case of failure of UPS, a
110 volts d.c. battery bank consisting of 80 x 1.5 volts cells with adequate battery
chargers shall automatically be available as back up.
The stator winding of each generator is star connected with brought out neutral
solidly earthed. The remote temperature detectors are embedded in the stator
winding to read out and record temperature levels at appropriate points.
The generators, excitation equipment and auxiliaries shall be designed,
constructed and tested in accordance with IEC Standards. The generation
terminal voltage will be 11 kV at 50 Hz frequency.
200
9.2.2
Number of Units
Rated Power
Rated Voltage
11 kV
Rated Speed
600 rpm
Power Factor
0.85
Rated Frequency
50 Hz
Excitation
Static TCR
Cooling System
Water Cooled
Insulation Class
Stator Connection
Generator Efficiency
96 %
Applicable Standards
IEC 34
Generator Protection
For each generating unit, the following protection relays have been proposed
and shown in the single line scheme Dwg. No. 9-2.
201
9.2.3
Excitation System
Two types of excitation systems have been considered for the generator
excitation namely:
Rotary Excitation
The static TCR excitation type has certain advantages such as quick in operation
and also full reversible excitation voltage is possible and less maintenance is
required. The rotary type has the disadvantage that it involves brushes and slip
rings causing certain losses.
For the Nagdar Hydropower Project, the static TCR excitation is proposed.
Generator excitation system is shown in Dwg. No. 9 - 1b.
9.2.4
MV Switchgear
Each 11 kV generator is electrically coupled with primary of step-up transformer
with hollow aluminium bus bar of appropriate rating and size having a generator
breaker (52GCB) in series between generator and transformer.
Appropriate instrument transformers are installed for protection and measuring
instruments, synchronisation on respective 11 kV bus and 132 kV bus-bar as and
when required.
Installation
Indoor
11 kV
15 kV
Rated Frequency
50 Hz
Current Rating
1250* A
Insulation
SF6
* The nominal current rating shall be finalised during the detailed design stage.
202
9.3
STEP - UP TRANSFORMER
9.3.1
General
For the Nagdar Hydropower Project, different options of arrangements and
layouts have been considered to step-up the generated voltage to transmission
level.
Mainly the following two options have been discussed in detail:
Both of the arrangements have their own advantages and disadvantages and
possess different technical aspects. After detailed comparative study, it is
proposed to use the first of the above arrangements as illustrated in
Dwg. No. 91a.
In this arrangement, each 11 kV generator is electrically coupled with primary of
step-up transformer with hollow aluminium bus bar of appropriate rating and size
having a generator breaker (52GCB) in series between generator and
transformer.
Appropriate instrument transformers are installed for protection and measuring
instruments, synchronization on respective 11 kV bus and 132 kV bus-bar as and
when required.
The 132 kV secondary side of the transformer will be feeding a common 132 kV
bus bar through a circuit breaker and an isolator. The current and voltage
transformers shall be used on high side of the transformer for synchronizing,
protection relays and measuring instruments.
The 132 kV bus bar also consisting of hollow alluminium pipe of correct size and
rating, will have independent set of synchronizing potential transformers.
203
9.3.2
Transformer Rating
The step-up transformers shall have the following typical characteristics:
9.3.3
Number of Units
Type
Three-Phase, Step-up
Installation
Outdoor
Duty
Continuous
Dielectric
Mineral Oil
Rated Power
10 / 13 MVA
Nominal Frequency
50 Hz
132 kV
11 kV
Power Factor
0.85
Voltage Control
Impedance
7%
Cooling
ONAF
Connection
Ynd 11
Transformer Protection
In order to ensure reliable operation of the transformer, following protections have
been considered:
Differential protection
204
9.4
132 kV SWITCHGEAR
9.4.1
General
Nagdar Hydropower Project is proposed to be connected to a new grid station at
Authmuqam and then to Muzaffarabad Grid Station with the help of 132 kV
transmission line. The 132 kV switchyard installations required for this purpose
include the SF6 circuit breakers, isolators, voltage / current transformers, power
transformers 132 / 11 kV, lightning arresters, 132 kV bus-bar, SCADA and
telecom system etc.
9.4.2
Circuit Breakers
In the power plant there shall be mainly low voltage, medium voltage and high
voltage circuit breakers installed at various places.
Low voltage breakers are air-break type with thermal and shunt trip
characteristics and are mainly used for supply to motor control centers, station
AC auxiliary supply, battery chargers, heating, internal & external lighting and
other utilities.
The medium voltage 11 kV breakers are vaccum bottle or SF6 gas insulated
breakers. They are used as generator breakers (52GCB) installed on 11 kV side
of the step-up transformer. High voltage breakers, SF6 insulated, are used on
High Voltage side of the step-up transformers and subsequently as 132 kV line
breakers.
The 132 kV circuit breakers shall be of the following characteristics:
Installation
Outdoor
132 kV
145 kV
275 kV
650 kV
Rated frequency
50 Hz
Current Rating
100 / 500* A
Insulation
SF6
205
9.5
LV INSTALLATION
9.5.1
11/0.4 kV Switchgear
It is proposed to use 11 / 0.4 kV switchgear at Nagdar Hydropower Project for
station auxiliary supplies. Two identical auxiliary transformers of 630 kVA rating
have been proposed. One transformer shall be capable to meet the complete
energy requirements of the units and general auxiliaries of the project.
The switchgear shall be equipped with 11 / 0.4 kV circuit breakers; metal clad
draw out type with all ancillary equipment. The arrangement of 11 / 0.4 kV
switchgear is indicated in Dwg. No. 9-3. Disconnecting switches and fuses or
combined fuse-disconnecting switches shall be used for the outgoing feeders.
9.5.1.1
Bus Bars
Nominal Voltage
11/0.4 kV
Frequency
50 Hz
Nominal Current
1250* A
* The nominal current rating and short circuit with stand current shall be finalised
during detailed design stage.
9.5.1.2
9.5.2
206
The power plant will be having battery charger to charge station battery bank for
independent DC voltage for controls and protection circuits. However a static
inverter will also be installed to supply station auxiliaries with un-interruptible
auxiliary supplies.
Low voltage switchgear will be in-door.
The main characteristics of the auxiliary transformer are as follows:
9.5.3
Rated Power
630 kVA
Rated Frequency
50 Hz
Cooling
ONAN
11 kV
0.4 kV
Connection
Yno
9.5.4
207
9.6
ELECTRICAL AUXILIARIES
9.6.1
Electrical Lighting
The following lighting requirements for station service are foreseen:
9.6.2
Emergency lighting is required and used when the power station is out
of service due to any shut down under emergencies.
This
Electrical gallery.
Power transformers.
9.7
TRANSMISSION LINE
9.7.1
Dispersal of Power
Dispersal of power from proposed Nagdar power plant is recommended through
132 kV overhead Transmission Line (T/L) up to Muzaffarabad via a new grid at
Authmuqam.
In view of 35 MW output of the proposed Nagdar power plant as well as other
planned hydroelectric stations around the area, it is suggested to use the double
circuit 132 kV towers with only one 132 kV circuit strung.
In order to disperse power from other power plants, second 132 kV circuit could
be strung when such requirement arises. The dispersal of 35 MW from Nagdar
power plant has been considered for allocation of transmission line cost for this
project.
208
9.7.2
9.7.3
9.7.3.1
9.7.3.2
Conductor
ACSR Rail conductor will be used.
9.7.3.3
Insulators
Fog type insulator disks will be used having strength of 100 kN on each phase
string.
9.7.3.4
Shield Wire
Shield wire will be in accordance with ASTM - A 363 standard.
9.7.3.5
Construction
The construction of transmission line will be in accordance with the standard
WAPDA specifications for construction of transmission lines.
209
10
210
10
10.1
INTRODUCTION
The proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project is a run-off-river project located on
Nagdar nullah. Nagdar nullah is a right bank tributary of Neelum River, having
the confluence with Neelum River near Keran village, about 8 km from the
Authmuqam and 92 km from Muzaffarabad.
The project has been identified on the lower part of Nagdar nullah. The weir site
is located about 6 km from the Neelum River confluence and powerhouse is near
Danjar Village, which is located about 4 km downstream of Keran village. The
need for the project arises from the fast growing demand for electrical energy in
Pakistan together with the increasing attraction of hydropower compared to
thermal generation using fossil fuels.
10.2
211
In the present case, it is the EPA Government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir,
Muzaffarabad; which has already adopted the Environmental Laws, Rules,
Guidelines, and Regulations etc. of the Government of Pakistan. Therefore, all
the requirements of this Act need to be fulfilled by the Client for the
implementation of the project.
10.2.1
10.2.2
10.2.2.3 Incentives
In order to promote industrialisation, the following incentives are available equally
to the investors:
amortisation, and
212
10.2.3
10.3
develop guidelines for conducting IEE and / or EIA and procedures for
the submission, review and approval of the same;
10.4
213
10.5
10.6
10.6.1
214
Electricity is not available in most of the human settlements and those have it, are
victim of long drawn out load shedding like in the rest of A & J and Pakistan. No
industry exists in the area. Private transport in the form of buses, wagons,
pick-ups and motorcycles is available to some extent. Private transport plying is
also a source of income of some people. During very short period from usually
June to September, tourism also becomes a source of earning of the people.
Centuries old traditions, customs and rituals are in practice. Women are
restricted to petty household works. They have no say in the decision making.
The elderly people are well respected and they play major role in decision
making. Marriages are generally arranged and are quite successful. The joint
family system prevails. Print and electronic media are bringing change in the
thinking levels and the same is now reflected in the day to day life of a common
mans life.
With operation of the project, it will provide job opportunities especially to the
people of the area around the project site, Government will get large volumes of
earnings in the form of taxes and duties on recurring basis. Poverty alleviation, to
some extent, will be yet another benefit.
There is a serious shortage of power in the AJ&K This project will help to add
positively to the economy as well as fulfillment of domestic needs. The power
supply from the project operations will help to bridge the crucially widening gap
between power demand and supply.
Obviously, in case the project does not proceed further, there will not be any
change in the existing status of the environment or a status quo will be
maintained with regard to all environmental, social and economic factors.
10.6.2
215
10.7
ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES
Mainly a countrys wilderness areas and scenic landscapes with their associated
flora and fauna form natural capital of a country. Both collectively and within
each level, the range or variety of the resources is referred to as the Biological
Diversity. The contribution of the Natural Capital is recognised at three distinct
levels including genera, species, and community habitat and ecosystem.
The greater the number of genera, species and habitats and ecosystems present
within the area, the greater is the Biodiversity. It is in this background that the
ecology of the area is discussed in the following paragraphs.
10.7.1
Overview
Natural flora of the Neelum district comprises of forests (mainly conifers), shrubs,
herbs, forbs, grasses, ferns, mosses, lichens, medicinal plants, agricultural crops,
vegetables, and cultivated fruit trees. The information below is about the valley
as a whole supplemented by information on areas under weir site and
powerhouse.
10.7.2
Forests
Eight types of forests exist in the area of the two Divisions of Neelum valley
Sharda and Keran. These forests are:
Keran Division consists of Bandi Ashkot Range, Jagran Range and Keran
Range.
Sharda Division has Sharda Range and Gureze Range.
The proposed Nagdar hydropower project site comes under the Keran Division
and amongst the different types of the Forests in the area exists, the Moist
Deodar Forests and Western Mixed Coniferous Forests.
216
217
218
10.8
NATURAL FAUNA
10.8.1
Mammals
The Keran and Sharda valley of District Neelum is rich in fauna, particularly small
mammals; in particular the rodents, flying squirrels, long-tailed marmot,
porcupines and long-tailed mouse are of note. Himalayan monkeys, mouse dear,
grey langur and black bear represent large mammals. Grey goral and Ibex also
survive (only within the north-western part of the valley adjoining Kohistan). The
presence of Leopards has also been reported by local people. Similarly, the
sightings of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list
critically endangered Snow Leopard have also been reported.
It is generally considered that the wild mammals in the weir site and powerhouse
area are mostly trespassers. The Macaca Mulatta (Monkey), Semnopithecus
Entellus (Gray Langur) Ursus Thibetanus (Black Bear) and Funambuius Pennanti
(Himalayan Squirrel) are the most common mammals found in the vicinity of
villages falling in the project area. These animals sometimes enter the
settlements in search of food and prey.
The Uncia Uncia (Snow Leopard), Panthera Pardus (Common Leopard),
Naemorhedus Goral (Gray Goral), Muschus Muschiferus (Musk Deer) and Ovis
Orientalis (Urial) cross the area in winter when the glaciers are deposited across
the area providing a safe corridor for these animals.
10.8.2
10.8.3
219
10.8.4
10.8.5
Aquatic Ecology
Fish and other aquatic organisms require snags, logs and rocks where they can
shelter from predators and the current and can reproduce, to help them establish
territories and to provide markers that help them navigate.
Aquatic plants are also very important for fish and other creatures in the stream;
apart from providing food, their presence has a direct effect on the available
oxygen in the water, which in turn can affect the type of fish and other animals
living in the stream. Protruding snags provide roosting and preening sites for
birds.
The aquatic life has been observed at Nagdar nullah. The green algae were
noted at all sites colonising on stones and other debris. No macro-invertebrates
were observed at Nagdar weir site, but they were observed downstream at some
other locations near the confluence with Neelum River.
220
All the fish farms and hatcheries were damaged during the 2005 earthquake.
Currently, only a few hatcheries are functioning under the AJ&K Fisheries
Department.
10.9
PROTECTED AREAS
10.9.1
Overview
Like Pakistan's current provincial and territorial legislation, only the following
three protected area categories are already established in AJ&K:
10.9.2
National Parks
A National Park is an area owned by the government and set aside for protection
and preservation of its outstanding scenery, flora and fauna in a natural state. It
is accessible to the public for recreation, education and research activities,
subject to such restrictions, as the Government may impose.
The construction of access roads, tourist facilities and other buildings in the
National Park must not impair the park objectives. Forestry activities must also
be controlled in the same way. AJ&K wildlife department is responsible for
classifying the National Parks.
10.9.3
Wildlife Parks
Wildlife Park is an area owned by the Government and set aside for the
rehabilitation of endangered wildlife species under semi natural conditions as well
as for the education and recreation of the public.
The following acts are prohibited in a wildlife park:
Hunting, killing or capturing of any wild species or firing any gun or any
other fire arms.
221
10.9.4
Wildlife Sanctuaries
A Wildlife Sanctuary is an area owned by the Government (set aside by
notification in the official gazette) as an undisturbed breeding ground for the
protection of wildlife. Public access to the sanctuary is prohibited. Exploitation of
forest resources in a wildlife sanctuary is not permitted except for reducing the
fire-hazards, epidemics, insect attacks or other natural calamities.
10.9.5
10.10
QUALITY OF LIFE
10.10.1
Socio-Economic Values
The average size of a typical rural family comprise of about 10 persons including
the older parents. Traditionally, the society is male dominated where the elders
are placed at a higher level of esteem and authority. A handful of men are skilled
in carpentry / wood, masonry and tailoring works. The growth of population is
high as compared to the other urban areas of the state. This rapid increase in
the population is putting enormous strains on the available natural resources;
particularly, the forests which are shrinking in acreage at a faster rate.
More than a third of the national population lives below the poverty line.
According to Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) the
income level per person in the affected area before the earthquake varied
between about US$ 150 to 200 as compared to US$ 480 in the rest of the
country.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) found that during 2000/01 44% of the rural
population in AJ&K was living under the poverty line of the daily equivalence to
2,550 caloric intakes per adult.
The main source of income is agriculture which is mainly practiced by the male
members. The family income comprises of a number of sources / activities.
Farm size is very usually small where they grow seasonal crops especially the
potato which is main cash crop for the locals. Among other sources of income
include cattle raring, poultry, trade, general menial labour, driving, milk selling,
etc.
222
10.11
223
10.12
10.12.1
Noise
According to the monitored data, noise levels range between 41.6 dB(A) to
48.0 dB(A) as against the maximum limiting value of 85.0 dB(A) set by the
National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) Pakistan. It means that noise
is not a problem in the area.
10.12.2
Ambient Gases
The monitored data for the ambient gases was observed in the proposed project
area. From the monitored data, it is evident that concentration of the SO2, CO
and NOx in the ambient air in the project area ranges below the detection limits of
the instrument to a maximum 0.1 of CO, 0.2 of NOx and 0.04 of SO2. The
presence of these gases is due to the vehicular emissions, which too is much
below the limiting values as set by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
10.12.3
Particulate Matter
The concentrations of particulate matter as measured in the ambient air of the
project site range between 17.2 to 34.3 g/m3. These are far below the WHO set
limiting values.
10.12.4
Water Quality
In order to assess quality of water in the project area, two water samples were
collected from the Nagdar nullah. It is pertinent to note that all water samples are
biologically (due to Coliform) contaminated.
For drinking purposes, most of the water is fetched from natural springs in large
tumbler and stored for daily use. Each cluster of community lays claim on its own
source of the natural spring. These springs are fed from the underground
aquifers, whose source is the snow deposits.
224
10.13
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
10.13.1
225
10.13.1.3 Soils
Construction activities may have the following impacts on soils if mitigation
measures are not adopted and enforced:
Erosion.
Soil contamination.
Much of the land cover within the project area consists of steep slopes covered
by shrubs and grasses and is prone to erosion due to medium textured soils
(sandy loam / silt loam). Extensive grazing has exacerbated erosion issues
within the area and additional causes of soil erosion should be avoided.
Potential negative impacts (without mitigation) on soils resulting from erosion,
loss of topsoil and contamination are considered to be of moderate significance.
10.13.1.4 Waste
Large volumes of waste are likely to be generated from the construction activities,
construction camps, workshops and storage areas and include such things as
waste oils, empty fuel tanks, lubricant tins, broken tools, cables, construction
steel cuttings, scaffoldings, other discarded materials such as chemicals and
paints and municipal solid waste. Depending on the nature of the waste there is
a potential for material disposed of in open undesignated areas to be a source of
smell and vector diseases. The drum of fuel and lubricants should be returned to
the companies for its recycling.
Waste streams generated from the project activities would be mainly localised
and if disposed of properly, are unlikely to affect areas other than active project
zone.
Impacts associated with waste generation (solid and liquid) and disposal is
considered to be of minor magnitude considering localised extent and limited
duration.
226
Negative impacts arising from inappropriate spoil disposal during construction are
considered to be of moderate magnitude. The leftover material like cement mix
concrete should be collected and disposed off into the designated sites.
227
Presently, the sewage from all the major settlements along the Neelum River is
being disposed off in septic tanks/soaking pits from downstream of the river. A
small quantity of sewage through seepage might be entering the river.
Agriculture run-off is potential contributing to the river pollution; however, low
inorganic concentrations found due to limited use of inorganic fertilizers for
growing of crops.
Impacts on water quality associated with construction camps during the
construction phase are considered to be of minor significance as long as
adequate mitigation measures are in place to prevent effluents entering the river.
10.13.2
10.13.2.1 Air
During operation, air pollution is expected to be very limited, and the main
sources will be from vehicle emissions / dust from maintenance traffic on
unpaved roads and increased traffic due to movement of workforce. In addition,
there may be some dust from construction quarries and sites before they are fully
rehabilitated.
Impacts on air quality during operation are not considered to be significant.
Few mitigation measures such as proper vehicle tuning and road maintenance
etc. are available to limit influx of traffic movements resulting from improved road
infrastructure.
10.13.2.3 Noise
During operation the noise will mainly be generated in the power station only
through the operation of the electrical and mechanical equipment. As the
proposed power station is placed in a cavern within the mountains, therefore, the
noise from underground powerhouse would not be significant for the surrounding
areas.
228
229
10.14
BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS
10.14.1
230
231
10.15
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS
10.15.1
10.15.2
232
10.15.3
10.15.4
Recreation Activities
Neelum Valley is a renowned tourist destination and every year hundreds and
thousands of tourists including foreigners move into the area, particularly during
the summer season.
The development of the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project is likely to attract
more tourists in the area and will increase the commercial and recreational
activities.
Impact relating to recreation activities is considered to be positive and of
moderate magnitude.
10.16
10.16.1
Electricity Generation
The greatest benefit provided by the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project will be
the provision of electricity to population, expanding economic activities and
increasing demand for energy. The Nagdar project is proposed to generate
35 MW installed capacity. Electricity is recognised as a necessary productive
input contributing to a stable economy.
Electricity generation impacts are considered to be positive and of major
magnitude.
10.16.2
233
10.16.3
10.16.4
Agricultural Impacts
It was noted / observed during the field visits and also through community
consultations that the nullah is not used in the project area for the irrigation of
large tracts of agricultural crops.
The impact of the project on agricultural production is minor although the
operational phase is not expected to significantly adversely impact agricultural.
10.16.5
234
10.17
ENVIRONMENT
MANAGEMENT
PLAN,
ENVIRONMENTAL
MITIGATION
MEASURES,
MONITORING
PLAN,
SOCIAL
MANAGEMENT PLAN AND PROPOSED TRAINING
10.17.1
Introduction
For mitigation of the negative environmental impacts a very strong Environmental
Management Unit (EMU) should be created to ensure compliance with the EMP
as legal requirement under the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act 1997. The
EMU will be headed by an individual responsible for the entire mitigation
operations during construction phases and thereafter for implementation of the
EMP during operation phase also as regular feature. He will also be responsible
to report on progress and the status of each rehabilitation conducted. Wherever
required, he will be assisted by some expertise of the Forest Department,
fisheries, Wildlife, etc., Government of AJ&K. It will be worthwhile to establish
EMU right at the onset of the project.
The unit should employ suitable people and equip the unit with necessary
equipment commensurate with the requirements of the project effective
environmental management. All the staff of the EMU should be duly trained in
the relevant fields of environment to be managed by them. Necessary budget on
regular basis should be provided to keep the capabilities of this unit to enabling it
to effectively manage its all out responsibilities / activities.
A programme for monitoring of the water quality and aquatic life for preconstruction, construction and operation phases is given in the Environmental
Monitoring Plan. Environmental Protection training and awareness, and capacity
building of institutions are important. This needs to be done at the earlier stages
of the project execution.
10.17.2
235
10.17.3
PAPs social and cultural institution will be protected along with common
property resources.
236
10.18
PUBLIC CONSULTATIONS
Public consultations were held with the people from the project area. They have
welcomed the project and are of the view that the project will open up new
avenues of job opportunities for the people of the project area. This will result in
poverty alleviation to a reasonable extent. The people have clear perception that
the installation of the hydropower project in the area is beneficial for the
community especially and the area in general.
As far as the Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is concerned, the positive social
impacts are dominant over hardly conceived any negative social impacts
observed during the study. They correlate their positive attitude towards the plant
with many socio-economic opportunities and benefits.
They also perceive the accelerated economic activity due to the business
opportunities likely to emerge in the area. Directly or indirectly, many local
people will get employment and business, e.g., shopkeepers, traders, suppliers,
contractors, transporters, technicians, etc. They feel that the project and its
related activities will provide a strong base for the social change.
10.19
CONCLUSION
On the basis of findings of this Initial Environmental and Social Impact
Examination study, it is concluded that the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project
will not have any significant adverse impacts on the local population or any
segment of environment provided the above mentioned recommendations and
mitigation measures are fully implemented by the plant management in letter and
spirit.
237
11
COST ESTIMATES
238
11
COST ESTIMATES
11.1
INTRODUCTION
The cost estimates used in this report are based on unit and lump sum prices
applied to the quantities of major work items calculated for various components of
Nagdar Hydropower Project. The Consultants have updated all relevant
economic key parameter and have elaborated a detailed project unit cost data
base.
The following estimates have been prepared.
Summary of Costs.
These cost estimates provide an estimate based upon the price index of
May 2010. The summary of cost estimate has been used for economic and
financial analysis. This estimate considers the local currency component in
Rupee, the foreign currency component is US Dollars and the total cost in
equivalent Rupees based on May 2010 exchange rate (1 US$ = Rs. 85.00).
11.2
ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES
The Consultants have estimated the quantities of major civil structures of the
project based on the feasibility design and corresponding design drawings. The
drawings are presented in Volume-II of this report.
Materials and quantities required have been computed using the engineering
design drawings consisting of plans and sections of all the components of the
project on a scale of 1:500 and 1:1000, drawn on exact topographic survey maps
of same scale.
For minor works provisions in terms of the miscellaneous items rates have been
made. In accordance with common practice, the cost estimate is based on the
concept of direct and indirect costs and provisions for unforeseen items and costs
(contingencies).
The cost estimates include the following main plant components and cost
elements:
239
Civil works include weir and flushing outlet, power intake, sandtrap,
headrace tunnel, surge tank, pressure shaft and tunnel, powerhouse
and tailrace system;
Transportation cost;
Import duties;
Project administration;
Contingencies.
The cost estimates for various works including Infrastructure development and
site installations, civil, hydro-mechanical, electrical and transmission lines were
prepared by multiplying unit rates with the relevant quantities of different
structures. The cost estimate for environmental mitigation was prepared after
collection of data during site visit and then estimated after evaluation.
Major portion of civil works cost estimates
calculations. For the major structures such
tunnel, desander / sandtrap, pressure shaft,
tunnel etc. the quantities of concrete and
Table - 11.1.
11.3
UNIT RATES
The Consultants have estimated the unit rates for several items of civil works.
Basic costs of labour, material and equipment have been updated to estimate
unit costs and these unit rates are compared with that of similar size hydropower
projects presently under development in Pakistan.
The unit and lump sum prices for Civil Works of Nagdar Hydropower Project have
been prepared after consulting and escalating the unit prices of a number of
similar hydropower projects under study or under construction. The similar
projects include Jinnah, Keyal, Lower Spat Gah, Madyan, Golen Gol and
Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Projects.
Since the units rates presented in BOQ of the six (6) above projects refer to
different reference dates, they were escalated to the level of May 2010 applying
an appropriate inflation rate per annum on local and foreign currency rates and
the corresponding currency exchange rate of the Central Bank of Pakistan.
240
11.4
b)
Electro-mechanical; and
c)
Electrical equipment.
The cost estimates form the basis of economic and financial evaluation of the
project. It shall be prepared on the basis of representative unit rates for various
construction activities and the respective quantities. In order to comply with the
requirements on accuracy of cost estimates, the Consultant followed the following
approach:
241
11.5
Calculated unit rates for relevant items of civil works for application to
BOQ;
11.6
CIVIL WORKS
Civil works includes road and preliminary works, diversion weir including intake,
headrace tunnel, surge tank, pressure shaft and pressure tunnel, powerhouse
and tailrace tunnel. The quantities for each structure have been estimated from
drawings presented in Volume-II.
Cost of civil works include all the civil engineering structures of proposed project
including headrace tunnel, cofferdam, weir, connecting channel, sandtrap,
flushing outlet, pressure shaft, pressure tunnel, surge shaft, penstock,
powerhouse, switchyard, transformer cavern, tailrace tunnel and outlet, cable
tunnel, etc. Due consideration has been given to the seasonal variation, inflation
over a year and distance from Muzaffarabad etc. assessed to be comparable to
the prices obtained from international contractor / different projects.
The cost of cement and steel is based on the prevailing market rates. Unit prices
of aggregates based on the consideration that all the raw materials will either be
available at site or from the quarry in the vicinity of the project area. The rate
analysis for different items of works has been carried out on the basis of above
consideration.
The cost for all civil works has been estimated as US$ 28.043 million.
detailed cost estimate has been presented in Table - 11.3.
242
The
11.7
11.8
11.9
11.10
243
11.11
11.12
IMPORT DUTIES
Import duties inclusive of custom duties have been calculated, based on
Government of Pakistan import policy for 1993 and also energy policy 2002. This
includes custom duties for each imported equipment and material. The total
duties at a rate of 5% of the imported equipment and material have been added
to the estimates, which is US$ 0.501 million.
11.13
CONTINGENCIES
An effort has been made for realistic project cost estimates. To cover some of
the unforeseen that may occur over the period of construction, provision for
contingencies has been made as 3% of total base cost, which includes local and
foreign capital costs of civil works as well as of E&M equipment, etc. The total
contingencies cost is estimated as US $1.455 million.
11.14
11.15
244
MAJOR ITEMS
Excavation (ABGM)
UNIT
QUANTITY
m3
4400
79113
Excavation (Rock C)
m3
22628
Rock Overbreak
5777
Backfill
m3
1190
Reinforced Concrete
8434
Mass Concrete
m3
140
Hard Concrete
250
Shotcrete
m3
2448
10
Concrete Lining
10602
11
Stone Apron
m3
1320
12
Reinforcement
539
13
kg
129
245
12
CONSTRUCTION PLANNING
246
12
CONSTRUCTION PLANNING
12.1
INTRODUCTION
The construction activities would mainly be spread over in Nagdar valley, from
weir site to powerhouse. The distance from weir to powerhouse sites is about
11 km and surface elevation varies from 1950 m asl to 1770 m asl. Presently,
there is not enough infra-structure in the area like roads, residential buildings,
market, hospital, etc.
Further, the working period is from March to November and the accessibility of
project area from Muzaffarabad in winter three months is limited. Materials, such
as cement and steel have to be transported from down country. Aggregates,
gravel and sand will be available within the working area in an economic distance
of transportation.
Two camps will be constructed; one near powerhouse site and other near weir
site. The access to project area is from Muzaffarabad, which is connected with
main Neelum road up to Keran village. The weir site is accessible by jeepable
road leading to Neelum village then a foot track leads along the Nagdar nullah.
12.2
CONSTRUCTION PLANNING
The proposed project implementation schedule spans over a period of
60 months, which includes 48 months for construction activities and 12 months
for pre-construction activities.
This section deals with the critical factors, governing the pace of work. It will also
cover the proposed construction techniques and project budgeting during the
construction period.
The construction planning for Nagdar Hydropower Project has been prepared
keeping in view the following major factors:
247
The proposed project area consists of the high mountains of Neelum valley which
are located near Line of Control and remain under snow cover during winter
months. Further, the access to project area is haulted due to landslides in rainy
period. The project area is located near Keran village which is about 89 km from
Muzaffarabad. The weir site is located about 5.6 km from main Neelum valley
road and powerhouse is located near Danjar village.
The characteristic items required for construction process in the project has been
studied in detail and accordingly the construction schedule has been framed, also
keeping in view the construction methods.
The period of each activity has been estimated keeping in view the weather
conditions, because some activities may have to be discontinued in severe
weather such as during heavy snow, surface civil works at the site may not be
possible.
The project layout includes a diversion weir with lateral intake, sandtrap, 3840 m
long low pressure tunnel, surge tank, 680 m long pressure shaft and pressure
tunnel, underground powerhouse, 537 m long tailrace, 25 m long tailrace channel
and access tunnel on the right bank of Neelum River.
The whole construction operation will be spread over a large area in Neelum
valley, where the required camps, workshops, offices, processing plants and
stores can be located near to the construction site.
12.3
DESCRIPTION OF WORKS
The description is outlined for the construction stages, required for the completion
of various parts of the project like; preliminary works, mobilisation, camps and
project structures etc. in the following paragraphs.
12.3.1
Preliminary Works
Before the start of any construction activity, approval of PC-I Proforma by HEB
from concerned authorities of AJ&K is a pre-requisite.
Thereafter, the
construction, improvement and extension of roads and construction of one bridge
on Danjar nullah needs to be completed for executing any work at powerhouse
site.
The road along Nagdar nullah also needs to be constructed. The road to surge
tank area has to be built otherwise surge tank would have access after
completion of headrace tunnel. These activities including land acquisition is to be
completed by HEB.
248
12.3.2
12.3.3
Construction of Camps
Since the project consists of three major construction items such as:
Since Nagdar Hydropower Project would be spread over 11 km stretch, from weir
intake to powerhouse, so two camps are proposed or there could be one major
camp near Neelum village for the work force.
One camp may be placed on a relatively flat terrace near the Neelum village.
This camp will fulfill all the basic necessities required for diversion weir, sandtrap
and inlet portal of headrace tunnel. After some months, it will be extended to
meet the requirements for construction of other structures.
Another suitable location for site camp may be near Danjar village. The camp
should fulfill the requirements for construction of access tunnel, powerhouse
excavation, building and pressure shaft. The camp has to be equipped and
furnished with all necessary facilities such as workshops, stores, offices, mosque,
accommodations for Contractor's and Consultant's personnel, hospital, recreation
facilities etc.
12.3.4
Diversion Weir
After construction of the first camp, works on diversion weir and intake structures
shall be started. The work on diversion weir and intake will take about two
summer seasons. The construction of the weir should be carried out as follows:
First the Nagdar nullah would be diverted to left bank to start the construction of
sediment flushing channels on the right side of the weir. After completion of this
right portion of weir, the nullah will be diverted to the right side to start the
construction of remaining overflow portion of weir.
249
A period of four months is available to carryout excavations and eight months for
placement of concrete which is anticipated to be completed. The work on
construction of weir will be stopped when flows in the nullah are high. Installation
of under sluice gates will also be completed up to August Year-1.
For the second stage of weir construction, the work on the weir will be restarted
by Year -2 when the flows in the nullah drop down substantially. A coffer dam will
be constructed in two months across the nullah and the nullah flows will be
allowed to flow through the constructed under sluice structure. Intakes will be
plugged.
12.3.5
12.3.6
Headrace Tunnel
The headrace tunnel will start from downstream end of sandtrap. The tunnel
would be excavated from upstream side and also from surge tank. This is a long
term activity and would take about 24 months. Alongwith excavation, shotcreting
or concrete lining wherever is required would be carried out.
The work on tunnel can be started simultaneously with the construction of weir.
The tunnel passes through terrain which covers up to 800 m. The horseshoe
type tunnel will be excavated with in about 24 months assuming a progress of
160 m per month.
The headrace tunnel would be on critical path, it has to be started as soon as
area for inlet portal near sediment basin is ready for construction. The tunnel is
expected to be completed in October Year - 3.
12.3.7
Surge Tank
The construction of surge tank would be parallel to headrace tunnel as it needs
blasting of rock and a lot of concrete work. The intake for pressure shaft and
surge tank will be made and will be connected with headrace tunnel. The whole
civil and mechanical works can be started independently.
250
12.3.8
Pressure Shaft
About 420 m long pressure shaft and 260 m long pressure tunnel have been
proposed to connect surge tank with powerhouse. The excavation would be
made with raise boring method. First pressure tunnel from powerhouse cavern
would be excavated, and then vertical shaft would be started from surge tank
area.
All work for excavation, shotcreting, concrete lining would be made afterward.
The activity will take at least 23 months. The access tunnel and powerhouse
cavern have to be excavated before pressure tunnel is started. All these works
will be completed within 26 months starting from April Year-1 to October
Year-3.
12.3.9
12.3.10
12.3.11
Electro-Mechanical Equipment
Manufacturing of electro-mechanical equipment will be started in the beginning of
the first year of construction and will take approximately 20 months.
Transportation from overseas and inland transportation of equipment will require
about 9 months. Installation of the embedded parts will require 6 months for
fixing. The erection of turbines and generators will take about 12 months. The
switchyard will be located near the powerhouse and it will take approximately
6 months for its completion. Testing and commissioning of the plant will take
about 4 months in last year. Transmission line to Nagdar powerhouse to
Kundal Shahi would take about 9 months in the last year of construction. A
tentative implementation schedule for project containing all major activities is
given in Figure - 12.1.
251
13
252
13
13.1
INTRODUCTION
The identified hydropower potential in AJ&K and rest of country mainly lies in
far flung and remote rural regions which for some reasons, could not be brought
up to the same level of socio economic progress as that of the urban areas.
Due to lack of interest or resources to mitigate the situation, migration of people
from under developed areas towards developed areas is on the rise and this
pace is accelerating with the passage of time. The increasing trend has already
put enormous strains on the resources of urban areas.
Notable socio-economic deficiencies in rural areas that compell the people to
migrate to urban areas are:
Traditionally the rural culture nurtures, promotes and sustains a large cadre of
skilled workforce including masons, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, and
construction and steel workers. However, this work force either is unutilised or
remains underutilised due to the absence of opportunities. One of the main
advantages of setting up the hydropower project in such rural areas is the
creation of opportunities for skilled, semi skilled or unskilled work force during
construction as well as to tap the natural resources.
Since major component of capital cost is to be used for civil work, the local
economy benefits with creation of employment and trading opportunities. The
preparatory work for the project site includes setting up of access roads. This
leads to opening up of the area even for promotion of tourism, if it has major
tourism attraction.
The above described indirect socio-economic benefits due to a hydropower
project are often not quantified in any development plan. The economic cost of
these benefits over many years of plants construction and operation, however,
can significantly contribute towards stopping the migration trend.
In a public sector project development study, the detailed economic and financial
analyses are performed so as to demonstrate that the proposed investment is an
economic and optimal use of national resources. The private developers
objective is financially motivated.
253
13.2
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The purpose of the economic analysis of the project is to bring about a better
allocation of resources, leading to enhanced incomes for investment or
consumption. For a directly productive project where the output is sold in a
relatively competitive environment, choices are made within the economy to
ensure that projects selected for investment meet a minimum standard for
resource generation and to weed out those projects that do not.
Pakistan is facing acute power shortage since 2005, which has gone up to
4,500 MW during peak hours. The main reason is non development of any
mega hydro project in the country after the completion of Ghazi Brotha
Hydropower Project and completion of thermal power plants pursuant to Energy
Policy 1994. Therefore, the country is in dire need of energy especially from
the hydropower generating plants. The thermal and hydro mix has been
reversed considerably over the last two decades.
Economic Analysis has been carried out in the above mentioned perspective
and on the basis of economic benefits to the overall economy as a
consequence of least cost optimal development of hydropower potential in the
country. For this purpose, Hub Narowal thermal power plant, which is in the
process of development, has been selected as the representative project.
The feasibility aspects of project preparation and analysis deal with
determining, whether a project is likely to contribute significantly to the
development of the total economy and whether its contribution will be significant
enough to justify the expenditure of the scare resources it would utilise.
The investment justification for current purposes depends on the returns
generated and meeting the selected criteria of Economic Internal Rate of Return
(EIRR) set by the Government of Pakistan and international funding agencies.
254
The Hub Narowal power plant is being developed on the reciprocating engine
technology. Its capital cost and tariff as allowed by NEPRA is almost same as
allowed in the case of other Residual Furnace Oil (RFO) power plants on the
Reciprocating Technology. Therefore, the benefits from the proposed Thermal
Power Plant have been evaluated in terms of cost foregone for providing an
equivalent generation.
13.2.1
Methodology
The analysis has been undertaken to establish the feasibility justification of the
construction of the project. The standard methodology used by international
funding agencies for appraising similar projects has been used for basic analysis.
The justification of the project has been assessed within the framework of
efficiency criteria of public investment involved using Discounted Cash Flow
technique.
Project measures like Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio),
and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) have been worked out to indicate the
profitability of investment.
13.2.2
255
Amount
Gross Capacity
222
Unit
MW
Project Cost
244.34
million USD
Project Cost
20769
million Rs.
Project Cost
93.55
million Rs./MW
3274.25
million Rs.
4.7811
Rs./kWh
0.4454
Rs./kWh
5.2265
Rs./kWh
23,247.07
M. Ton
13.2.3
Fuel Cost
The diesel generators will be run on Residual Furnace Oil (RFO). Fuel cost
per unit is estimated at Rs. 4.7811. This cost has been approved by NEPRA
vide Tariff Determination No. TRF-92/HUBCO/2008.
The Fuel Cost for generation of 146.05 GWh equivalent thermal generation
has been estimated at Rs. 698.28 millions.
13.2.4
256
13.2.5
Service Life
As compared with a hydropower station, which has useful economic life of
more than about 50 years, the thermal generation facilities have a
comparatively lesser useful life in the range of 20-30 years with high cost of
maintenance as compared to hydroelectric projects.
In no way it implies that after 20-30 years the machines become redundant.
With timely maintenance, replacement and rehabilitation; the machine is kept
running in order to produce energy.
However, the rehabilitation cost of thermal power plant is considerably more
than the hydropower plant to maintain the constant level of efficiency. Diesel
generators have a lesser service life than conventional steam thermal power
plant. However, 30 years useful life of hydroelectric power station has been
assumed for comparison purposes.
13.2.6
Assumptions
The economic analysis is based on following input parameters and assumptions:
All costs are taken at their estimated actual market prices at May 2010
constant price level. Price adjustments are not made by applying
shadow price factors to correct the distortions in prices of the local
inputs to reflect their true economic value.
It is anticipated that the prices of crude oil will stay close to the present
price level of US$ 60/BBL. However, for the Economic Analysis of
Nagdar, a conservative furnace oil price of Rs. 23,247.07 per metric ton
has been used (Ref: NEPRA Tariff Determination for Hub Narowal
Project).
The furnace oil is inclusive of cost of fuel, freight, port handling and
inland transportation charges and also a return of the oil marketing
companies.
257
All amounts are expressed in real terms and no escalations are applied
to any component including capital costs, O&M, fuel, etc.
The annual O&M Cost of the Nagdar Hydro Electric Project is taken as
1.5% of the Total Base Cost on the basis of O&M Cost approved by
NEPRA in similar Hydro Electric Project, i.e., Sukki Kinari HPP, etc.
The O&M Cost will be escalated against changes in Dollar vs Rupees
parity during the term of the Project.
258
146.05
5.536
1,077.313
The average energy sale price in Wapda project was Rs. 4.10 per kWh in the year
2007 as per 32nd Wapda Annual Statistics Report , which has been escalated @ 8 %
per annum upto the year 2016. 10% annual system losses have also been taken
into account for the working of Energy Revenue.
259
13.2.7
6,079.61
3,468.43
2,611.19
B/C Ratio
1.75
EIRR
27.78%
13.3
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The financial analysis of the proposed Nagdar Hydropower station in AJ&K has
been carried out in order to assess viability of the investment during the useful
life of the project, which is estimated as thirty (30) years. The analysis has
incorporated a tariff, adequate to yield return on equity which is reasonable for
the investors under the current market conditions.
Project installed generation capacity and power potential are computed based
on peak and off peak flow data. A plant design discharge of 9 m 3 /s, and four
turbines with a total plant installed capacity of 35 MW were selected. The
annual energy generation is estimated at 146.05 GWh.
13.3.1
Capital Cost
Following is a brief summary of the total capital cost of the Project. All figures
are shown in million Pak Rupees.
Description
Base Cost
IDC
Total Capital Cost
Local
Component
Foreign
Component
Total
(PKR)
1,642.895
2,601.934
4,244.830
49.939
597.961
846.168
1,444.129
16.990
2,240.857
3,448.102
5,688.959
66.929
260
Total
(US$)
13.3.2
Capital Structure
It is assumed that the Project Cost will be financed through Rupees Denominated
Loan to meet the local cost of the Project and US Dollar Denominated Foreign
Currency Loan to meet the foreign currency cost. There is no Equity injected by
the Govt. of Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Brief assumption relating to local currency
and foreign currency financing arrangements are given in the following sections.
13.3.3
Spread is 400 bps keeping in view the existing market trend and current
risks associated to Pakistan.
Tenure is for 20 years and payments will be made in 40 equal semi annual installments.
Since, the foreign currency loan is for 20 years and dollar denominated;
therefore, 11% Dollar vs Rupees exchange rate deprecation parity has
been assumed to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuation.
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The streams of project benefits and costs are detailed in Table - 13.2 and the
results are summarised below:
Values at 12% DR
million Rs.
Present Worth of Benefits
Present Worth of Costs
Net Present Worth
B/C Ratio
8,641.99
4,580.04
4,061.95
1.89
FIRR
14.30%
The Financial Analysis indicates that the project has a B/C ratio of 1.89 and an
FIRR of 14.30%; is financially viable.
13.4
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Sensitivity analysis has been carried out for following scenarios.
IRR%
23.86
21.30
18.23
A review of the results indicate that project is not sensitive to the assumptions
made above the investment in the project and remains financially feasible even
under the adverse condition of income / revenues reduction by 10% and
the cost overrun by 20% both occurring simultaneously when the FIRR
approached the discount rate of 12%.
262
13.5
UNIT COSTS
Unit cost refers to cost per unit of energy generated or cost per unit of installed
capacity. Being a useful parameter, it indicates project financial efficiency at a
glance. Cost of generation and installation per unit has been worked out for the
proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project as per PC-I practice used by WAPDA
Power Planning Wing (Cost recovery in 20 years and levelised over 30 years).
The project generation cost per kWh inclusive of import charges and IDC for the
useful life of the project and the cost per kW of installed capacity are shown in
Table - 13.4.
As can be seen the project shows the levellised generation cost of Rs. 6.496
(7.643 US cents) at an interest rate of 15.65 % and 4.64 % for local and foreign
currency costs over the useful life of the project. The cost per kW of installed
capacity comes to Rs. 162,542 (US$ 1912).
13.6
The addition of project from the local indigenous hydro resource shall
replace equivalent thermal generation, whose unit cost of production is
high, fluctuating widely and may rise in near future.
The successful completion of the project will turn into job opportunities
and uplift in the socio economic well being of the adjoining areas. This
will result into economic activities in the locality.
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14
264
14
14.1
CONCLUSIONS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
265
8.
The cost estimates have been prepared, considering the latest market
rates and the estimated project quantities. The estimated project cost
including interest during construction is PKR 5688.959 million involving
foreign exchange equivalent of PKR 3448.102 million in US Dollars.
9.
10. On the basis of field findings during the Initial Environment and Social
Impact Examination study, it can be concluded that the proposed
Nagdar Hydropower Project will not have any significant adverse impacts
on the local population or any segment of environment provided the
mentioned recommendations and mitigation measures suggested in
study are fully implemented during construction and by the plant
management in letter and spirit.
14.2
RECOMMENDATIONS
1.
2.
3.
The access roads to weir site, headrace tunnels and surge area need to
be improved / constructed.
4.
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PHOTOGRAPHS
267
SITE PHOTOGRAPHS
268
269
270
271
272
Photograph No. 11: Proposed Location of Access Tunnel Portal for Powerhouse
Photograph No. 12: Proposed Location of Tailrace Tunnel Outlet (Danjar Nullah)
273