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GAS SPOT MARKET: HOW DOES IT WORK AND WHO

ARE THE PLAYERS?

Giorgia Panebianco*

ABSTRACT: After the liberalization gas market is grown quickly and it developed two different
types of market, physical and financial market. Gas spot market is part of the physical market. The
importance of this market is increasing day by day, and a lot of transactions of gas are made inside
this. As a consequence the long-term contract are losing their importance. One of the most
important gas spot market in the world, after the U.S. gas spot market, is the European. This paper
will analyze the gas spot market, explaining how it works and who are the players, taking also in
consideration the European Gas Spot market and the future of long-term contracts.

The author is an LLM Energy Law and Policy candidate at the CEPMLP with an LL.B in Law from the Tor Vergata
University, Rome (2010), final thesis: The Oil Market Between The Present and The Future. Member of Rotaract
Club in Caltagirone, which is part of the District 2110 Sicily-Malta and currently member in charge of the
international committee. Email. panebiancogiorgia@gmail.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATION LIST ...................................................................................................................... iii

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1

2 NATURAL GAS MARKET ............................................................................................................. 2

2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF NATURAL GAS MARKET ............................................................ 2


2.2 PHYSICAL GAS MARKET. ............................................................................................... 3
2.3 GAS SPOT MARKET vs LONG TERM CONTRACT ...................................................... 4
2.4 FUTURE OF LONG TERM CONTRACTS ....................................................................... 5
3 GAS SPOT MARKET INSIDE THE EUROPEAN UNION ........................................................... 6

3.1 NATURAL GAS TRADING HUBS .................................................................................... 6


3.2 NATURAL GAS PRICE ...................................................................................................... 7
4. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 10

REFERENCE LIST ........................................................................................................................... 11

ABBREVIATION LIST
GBP

German Borded Price

LNG

Liquefied Natural Gas

NBP

National Balancing Point

NYMEX

New York Mercantile Exchange

SPAs

Sales and Purchase Agreements

1 INTRODUCTION
The last years have seen significant changes in gas market. Everything started with the
liberalization of the market in the United Kingdom that introduced a competitive market leaving
aside the monopoly system, in which the only player was the government. After the liberalization,
gas market has grown rapidly developing two types of market, the physical market and the financial
market.
Spot market is part of the physical market and it has totally changed the way of trading gas. The
main characteristic of the gas spot market is that inside it gas is traded right now at that price. It
implies one single delivery in a short period of time. On the other hand, the futures market is part of
the financial market, in which gas is traded with contracts that have the duration of one month or at
least 36 months.
With the development of gas spot market the utilization of long-term contracts inside the natural gas
market decreased. The reason why it is happening it has been attributed to their lack of flexibility
and also to the fact that participants are bound to the contract for 25-30 years. Moreover, part of the
long-term contract is the take or pay clause, in which the buyer is obliged to pay the gas,
irrespective to the fact that he has taken it or not. Basically the take or pay clause move the price
risk from the seller to the buyer.
On the other hand, the gas spot market offers that flexibility that is not present in long-term contract
and, at the same time all participants are sure that they can buy or sell gas to someone else in every
moment in order to compensate their capacity excess or their capacity shortage. However, there is a
school of though believing that if long-term contracts would start to become more flexible they will
regain their place inside the natural gas market. The first thing that comes to mind talking about gas
spot market is the European Gas Spot Market, which is one of the biggest after the U.S.
The European Union looking at the United Kingdom and at its liberalization of the market, decided
to follow the same example introducing, with the directive 98/20/EC, the competition between all
market participants. The creation of hub trading points made easier the growth of participants inside
gas spot market generating, as a consequence, losers and winners. The purpose of this paper is to
analyze the gas spot market explaining how does it works and who are the participants.

2 NATURAL GAS MARKET


2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF NATURAL GAS MARKET
The birth of the gas market is relatively new. It started its development after its deregulation
or liberalization, which happened in 1980s. Before that, there was no role for natural gas market.
Pipelines bought the gas form the producers, which sold the gas to the local distribution
companies1. As a result, the end-users bought the gas from the local distribution companies. With
this way of selling natural gas there was no space for other buyers and sellers and consequently
there was no space for competition. With this mechanism natural gas was produced and consumed
locally or, at least, regionally and the price was mainly established by the government.2.
Everything started to change in 1986 with the privatization of the British Gas and it continued in
1990s when the United Kingdom went on with deregulation of the gas market and the development
of the National Balancing Point (NBP), still the only European market place considered mature for
the gas industry3. The government introduced a liberalized gas market by opening the wholesale
gas market and promoting the natural gas resale.4 In this way the industry started to develop a
trading market, which took as an example the U.S. model.
The U.S. was the first country that started the deregulation of natural gas market. In fact, since 1984
U.S. has developed a competition at the level of interstate pipeline transportation. Then they
deregulated the all natural gas production and the wholesale market 5. The result of deregulation is
the creation of two important markets for natural gas. The first one is the natural gas market, which
regards the trading of natural gas as a normal commodity and the second one is the transportation
market, which creates the bases for market participants to trade natural gas through the pipeline
system. In this way the market competition is guaranteed. There are also other several effects that
need to be considered because they represent the consequence of the new markets: the protection of
the end user, the promotion of the efficient costs and the minimization of the transaction cost. These

1
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/marketing.asp
2
Anthony J. Melling, NATURAL GAS PRICING AND ITS FUTURE EUOROPE AS THE
BATTLEGROUND, p9, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/gas_pricing_europe.pdf (last visited on 2010)
3
ibidem
4
Andrej Juris, THE EMERGENCE OF MARKETS IN NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, World Bank Policy
Research Working Paper No 1895,p4
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/1895.pdf?expires=1367485925&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=
060B79BF43B42F4DA3C82FB70A4A6196 (last visited on 1998)
5
ibidem

are considered as keys elements inside a liberalized market, because they have developed and
increased competition6.
Inside the natural gas market, natural gas is sold as a normal commodity. The main characteristic of
being traded as a normal commodity is essentially that the product is essentially the same wherever
it is located. The other element of trading gas as normal commodity is that its price is essentially
volatile, which means that the commoditys price can change often, being different at different time.
For this reason gas is considered one of the most volatile commodities present in the market7.
2.2 PHYSICAL GAS MARKET.
To establish what exactly is the price of natural gas is no that easy, first of all because market forces
set it. There are two different markets for natural gas: the Financial Gas Market and the Physical
Gas market8.
Part of the financial gas market is the futures market and it consists in buying and selling natural gas
under contracts at least one month, and up 36 months, in advance. For example under a simplified
futures contract, one could enter into an agreement today for delivery the physical gas in two
months. Natural gas futures contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)9.
In simple terms a futures or exchange market is, nothing more than a public market place where
commodities are purchased or sold for a specific price. A futures gas contract will establish not only
the price but also the time and the place of the delivery, but they do not immediately imply the
change of the commoditys ownership. These purchases and sales agreements are made under the
terms and conditions of a standardized futures contract10.
On the other hand, the physical gas market is the basic type of market, which involves buyers and
seller of the physical commodity. The players inside this market are: producers, sellers and pipelines
companies11. There are many types of physical trading contracts: swing contracts, baseload
contracts and firm contracts. In these contracts must be specified the price, the amount of natural
6
ibidem p12
7
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/marketing.asp
8
Andrej Juris, THE EMERGENCE OF MARKETS IN NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, World Bank Policy
Research Working Papaer No 1895, p13
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/1895.pdf?expires=1367485925&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=
060B79BF43B42F4DA3C82FB70A4A6196 (last visited on 1998)
9
www.naturalgas.org
10
Robert L. Lerner , THE MECHANICS OF THE COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS, What They are and
How They Function (2000). http://www.turtletrader.com/beginners_report.pdf p.1
http://www.turtletrader.com/beginners_report.pdf p.1 (last visited on April 8,2013)
11
Andrej Juris, THE EMERGENCE OF MARKETS IN NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, World Bank Policy
Research Working Papaer No 1895 (last visited on 1998)

gas to be sold (expressed in volume per day), the receipt, the delivery point and the term of the
contract. Other elements are usually included in the contract, but both parties need to agree on them,
as the payment dates and the quality of the gas that has to be sold12.
2.3 GAS SPOT MARKET vs LONG TERM CONTRACT
Gas spot market is part of the physical market. The development of this market started to
grow with deregulation of the gas industry and more flexibility in supply. In this way long-term
supply contract have become less important because now the participants are able to trade gas on
daily basis13.
Essentially the spot market is a daily market, where natural gas is sold and bought right now. If
there is competition among the market participants, short-term (spot) prices follow the short-run
marginal cost of natural gas14. This means that the spot price of natural gas is the result of its
economy at a particular time and location. To get the price of natural gas on a specific day, the spot
market represents the most informative place to have it. The daily spot market for natural gas is
available every day at every time. The largest part of the gas is sold in the gas spot market during an
important week, which is called bid week. It is the last week of every month. During this week all
buyers and sellers, producers and consumers try to buy and sell all the necessary gas for the next
months.
The average price set during the bid week is commonly the price used in the physical contracts15.
What both players want to obtain in this market is to sell the excess of gas production and to buy
that gas at the cheapest price as possible. Considering that spot prices are volatile, because they
change in relation of some elements that are part of supply and demand, such as weather, available
pipeline capacity or consumption pattern price of the gas, and considering also that the market
players want to minimize the prize risk, they have to be careful in their transaction because they are
not able to predict the future price of natural gas16.

12
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/marketing.asp
13
Andrej Juris, THE EMERGENCE OF MARKETS IN NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, World Bank Policy
Research Working Papaer No 1895, p13,
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/1895.pdf?expires=1367485925&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=
060B79BF43B42F4DA3C82FB70A4A6196 (last visited on 1998)
14
ibidem
15
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/marketing.asp
16
Andrej Juris, THE EMERGENCE OF MARKETS IN NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY, World Bank Policy
Research Working Papaer No 1895, p14,
http://elibrary.worldbank.org/docserver/download/1895.pdf?expires=1367485925&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=
060B79BF43B42F4DA3C82FB70A4A6196 (last visited on 1998)

Before the developing of gas spot contracts the gas industry, connected with the oil industry and oil
price, was based on long-term agreement. Long-term contracts, called also Sales and Purchase
Agreements (SPAs) are either a depletion contract or supply contract. SPAs are usually signed
between twenty or thirty years and generally they are inflexible17. Long-term contracts are based on
the take or pay clause. This clause links together buyers and sellers for the entire life of the contract
and it sets specific and defined obligations for both parties. In particular, the take or pay obligation
requires that the gas has to be paid, whether taken or not, and specifies and obligation for the seller
to make available defined volume of gas18.
Taking into consideration the element that characterize the take or pay clause, it is possible to say
that it moves the risk of the market failure from the seller to the buyer. The seller takes the
responsibility of the production and, as a consequence, the buyer supports the risk of the market
change19. They are signed with the purpose to avoid any changes in the market. The main elements
that contribute to the stipulation of a long term contract are: 1 the long duration of the contract,
which gives the project sponsor adequate opportunity to recover his investments and repay project
loan including interest to the lender; 2 the take or pay element of the agreement, which will mitigate
against credit, market and volume risks20.
2.4 FUTURE OF LONG TERM CONTRACTS
Nowadays, through the development of spot market, the market is becoming more flexible
and competitive and the price is governed by the influence of supply and demand. This
market deals with cases of supply excess and supply shortage. This problem does not exist
with long-term contract in which every element, regarding price and quantity (volume), is
already determined21. With a long- term contract the supplier is able to protect himself against
the price risk, and also he is sure that the gas is sold at the same price that he paid to the
producer or to the exporter for having it22. Considering the lack of flexibility of the long term
contracts the buyer, at the moment, want to be part of the spot trading market. A school of

17
http://www.law-essays-uk.com/resources/sample-essays/industry-law/emerging-ing-spot-market.php
18
Anna Creti Bertrand Villeneuve, LONGTERM CONTRACT AND TAKE OR PAY CLAUSES IN
NATURAL GAS MARKET, Energy Sudies Review ,volume 13- issue1 p76
http://digitalcommons.mcmaster.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1249&context=esr (last visited on January 9, 2004)
19
Ayeni Oladatun CEPMLP Annual review 2009/10,
http://www.dundee.ac.uk/cepmlp/gateway/index.php?news=31298
20
www.law-essay-uk.com
21
ibidem
22
Kjersti Hegde Firik Fieldstad, THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN LONG-TERM NATURAL GAS
CONTRACTS, Executive master in energy managment 2009-2010, http://www.bergenenergi.com/arch/_img/9548380.pdf (last visited on September 1, 2010)

thought believes that in the future the take or pay clause could be abolished, or at least it will
be present just in project financing option. At the same time, they do not think that the longterm contracts will disappear, just because with it the participants feel more protected and
they can also mitigate the price and the market risk.
However based on the considerable growth of gas spot market, it is possible to think that in
the next future the long-term contracts will face some changes.23.

3 GAS SPOT MARKET INSIDE THE EUROPEAN UNION


3.1 NATURAL GAS TRADING HUBS
The European gas market has undergone several changes. The European Union followed the
example of the United Kingdom, which liberalized its market in 1990, and it passed from a
monopoly system to a competitive market24. This change has been made possible by the creation of
the trading hubs, which are places where companies can trade the natural gas or in form of spot or
with forward delivery.
The liberalization process in the European Union started in 1998 with a directive enacted by the
European Community 98/30/EC25. The purpose of this directive was the creation of several
common rules for the transmission, distribution, supply and storage of natural gas. It lays down the
rules relating to the organization and functioning of the natural gas sector including liquefied
natural gas (LNG), access to the market, the operation of systems, and the criteria and procedures
applicable to the granting of authorizations for transmission, distribution, supply and storage of
natural gas26.
By adopting these rules, the European Union was able to create an internal competitive market,
which had the same regulations for every participant. The new element that was introduced with
this directive was the gas to gas competition. With this the European Union wanted to increase

23
http://www.law-essays-uk.com/resources/sample-essays/industry-law/emerging-ing-spot-market.php
24
Kilian Leykam, COINTEGRATION AND VOLATILITY IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SPOT
MARKET, Hildesheim, p3
http://www.iorcf.unisg.ch/Forschung/~/media/1284F266653F48218C9CD56060D0B92D.ashx (last visited on
September 2008)
25
Official Journal of the European Communities, DIRECTIVE 98/30/EC OF THE EUROPEAN AND OF THE
COUNCIL of 22 June 1998 concerning the common rules for the internal market in natural gas, http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:1998:204:0001:0012:EN:PDF
26
ibidem, CHAPTER I, SCOPE AND DEFINITONS Article 1.

the productivity of the market and, at the same time, to reduce the cost for the end-users27. The key
element of the liberalization process in Europe was the building of the hubs as point of trading
natural gas.
The most important evolution of trading hub happened in North West Europe28. Hubs are virtual or
physical point in the gas network where the owners can buy or sell natural gas 29. Physical Hub can
be defined as a single point in the network, instead the virtual hub cover the all network area. A hub
can be also considered as a deployment point between downstream and upstream.
Broadly speaking there are two important functions that are attributed to the natural gas trading
hubs. First of all, hubs establish a balance between demand and supply. In this way it is possible to
understand what is the right price in a specific date or in a specific location. As a result this price
can be used as a reference price for the several contracts that are going to be signed. Secondly, they
are considered the provider for balancing demand and supply30. Thanks to this price transparency
the customers are able to adapt at the market changes easily. Furthermore inside a hub all entrants
are treated in the same way and identical services have to be provided for all of them. It has also
been suggested that the hubs operator should be a different legal entity because in this way it is
possible to avoid any discriminatory behavior among all participants31.
3.2 NATURAL GAS PRICE
Since the beginning of the gas industry the price of natural gas has been linked to the oil
indexation. This linkage was due to the fact that there was not other resources available to
determinate the gas price except oil32. The liberalization of the market, made by the United

27
Kilian Leykam, COINTEGRATION AND VOLATILITY IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SPOT
MARKET, Hildesheim, p3
http://www.iorcf.unisg.ch/Forschung/~/media/1284F266653F48218C9CD56060D0B92D.ashx (last visited on
September 2008)
28
Patrick Heather, CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN GAS HUBS: ARE THEY FIT FOR PURPOSE?, The Oxford
Institute For Enenrgy Studies, http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/NG49.pdf (last visited
on March 2011)
29
Luc Gossuin, Hub Manager Huberator, DEVELOPMENT OF GAS HUBS IN EUROPE, AFG 9-2007,
http://www.congresdugaz.fr/congres2007/pres/AT5/Gossuin_L.pdf (last visited on September 2007)
30
Kilian Leykam, COINTEGRATION AND VOLATILITY IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SPOT
MARKET, Hildesheim , p6
http://www.iorcf.unisg.ch/Forschung/~/media/1284F266653F48218C9CD56060D0B92D.ashx (last visited on
September 2008)
31
ERGEG, THE HUB USED AS A BALANCING POINT (in the South- South East Region) p4,
http://www.energyregulators.eu/portal/page/portal/EER_HOME/EER_ACTIVITIES/EER_INITIATIVES/GRI/South_South_East/Final%2
0docs/GRI-SSE-SG-02-05_HUB.pdf
32
Anthony J. Melling, NATURAL GAS PRICING AND ITS FUTURE EUOROPE AS THE
BATTLEGROUND, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/gas_pricing_europe.pdf (last visited on 2010)

Kingdom in 1990, was considered a way for the European to broke the market, to start pricing gas
at the hub price and to use hub index for long term contracts33.
Usually a big amount of European supply contracts are based on a considerable amount of
flexibility, this gives the opportunity to the buyer to have a certain variation on his take and, at the
same time, the supplier is able to pay for the flexibility made available by the producers
infrastructure34.
Most of the long-term contracts have flexibility, but it difficult to price them. Instead, moving
towards hub-based price means that wholesalers will not make profit establishing different prices
between the production contracts and the hubs. The best strategy for optimizing flexible contracts is
compare the contract price with the expectations of the future spot price35
In this way all participants can buy gas at the spot price, which is basically established by the real
availability of gas and its demand. Companies, with the introduction of this new market, are able to
buy either the quantity of gas they need or, conversely, they can sell the quantity of gas they have in
excess36.
The biggest gas markets in Europe are precisely in UK and German. The prices set by these markets
are universally accepted and they are considered as the benchmark prices in Europe.

The German Borded Price (GBP)

The NBP Spot Market Price (NBP)

The first one represent the oil-indexed contracts of the German gas supplies and it covers the 90%
of them (in 2008) and spot suppliers are more using the Dutch-German and Norwegian Pipeline
terminal.

33
Kilian Leykam, COINTEGRATION AND VOLATILITY IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SPOT
MARKET, Hildesheim, p6
http://www.iorcf.unisg.ch/Forschung/~/media/1284F266653F48218C9CD56060D0B92D.ashx (last visited on
September 2008)
34
IEA, DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITIVE GAS TRADING IN CONTINENTAL EUROPE How to achieve
workable competition in European gas markets?, p42,
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/gas_trading.pdf (last visited on May 2008)
35
ibidem p.43
36
Kilian Leykam, COINTEGRATION AND VOLATILITY IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SPOT
MARKET, Hildesheim, p7
http://www.iorcf.unisg.ch/Forschung/~/media/1284F266653F48218C9CD56060D0B92D.ashx (last visited on
September 2008)

The second, instead, is the reference price for all gas traded in UK, which cover the 90% of the UK
supplies37. The key element of this market is the creation of the hub. Inside this, the only fees that
have to be paid are related to the entry on the transmission system and once the gas is inside the
transmission points it has exactly the same value, no more taxes have to be paid related to the
distance.
The coexistence of these two markets is not easy but at recent time the tensions have been
controlled, but unfortunately the tensions have come back with problems related to price
differentials38. The consequence of this price mechanism inside Europe has been created losers and
winners. There are three players inside this market. They are: official wholesalers, and gas
producers and end-users.
The wholesalers have a great power inside the market; they have to maintain the balance inside the
market in a way that the oil-indexed volumes have sufficient flexibility in order to accommodate the
excess of market supply. Modifying the daily takes, wholesalers can cause changes over oil-indexed
prices. In spite of their power to renegotiate prices, they are considered losers in this game because
they are pressed by the continuous changes in supply and demand and by greater competition39. The
gas producers, usually national or international oil companies, take the oil price risk accordingly
with their stakeholders without resistance. They, with several supply options, are the winners inside
the market because they can take advantages from the price differences and from long-term
contracts by controlling the supply. At the end, there are the end-users, which are interested at their
own business, taking advantages from the cheapest price. At this point it can be said that for energy
companies is getting hard to live in a buyers market40.

37
Anthony J. Melling, NATURAL GAS PRICING AND ITS FUTURE EUOROPE AS THE
BATTLEGROUND, p31, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/gas_pricing_europe.pdf (last visited on 2010)
38
ibidem
39
ibidem p11
40
idibem p11-21

4. CONCLUSION
The problem with the development of the gas market was its connection with the oil index,
but after the creation of the hub trading system and the two most important gas spot markets in
Europe it is possible to say that the greatest part of natural gas today it is traded inside these
markets. The gas producers are sure that the price set by the gas spot market is the right price and it
will give them the capacity and the opportunity to control their needs of supply.
It is also possible to say that, probably, in the future this market will continue to grow, and most of
all gas in Europe will be traded in form of spot contracts. Obviously one consequence of this market
that makes it different from the long term contract, is that here the participants are not able to
predict the market trends and it is difficult for them to mitigate the price risk and volume risk.
The trend shows that the presence of new contracts that would be capable to incorporate some
elements of both, short term and long-term contracts is desirable and it could be even possible.
Today, however, sellers prefer to sell their excess of capacity inside gas spot market because it is
more flexible than a long-term contract. The future of these markets will depend on the sellers and
on how they will decide to sell their gas. They can decide either to sell the biggest part of their gas
under long term agreements and the remaining small part inside gas spot market or conversely
giving the priority to the spot market. The answer is left to the buyers and sellers, but what it is
certain is that the rapid growth of the LNG gas spot market.

REFERENCE LIST

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11

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OTHER
Internet
http://www.law-essays-uk.com/resources/sample-essays/industry-law/emerging-ing-spotmarket.php
http://www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/marketing.asp

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