KS

Presidential Caucus Survey

Conducted 3/2-3
1060 Respondents
Likely Republican Presidential Caucus Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.96
Response Rate: 3.13%
Confidence: 95%
Response Distribution: 50%

Overall Survey
If you were caucusing today, for whom would you vote?
Undecided
6.29%
Cruz
29.31%

Trump
35.18%
Rubio
16.56%

Page 1 of 11

Kasich
12.66%

Which of the following do you most identify with?

Something
Else
9%

Independent
4%
Libertarian
2%
Tea Party
Republican
12%

Conserva/ve
Republican
46%
Moderate
Republican
27%

Self-Identified Conservative Republicans

Undecided
4%

Cruz
43%

Trump
30%

Rubio
16%
Kasich
7%
Page 2 of 11

Self-Identified Moderate Republicans

Undecided
7%
Cruz
10%

Kasich
25%

Trump
36%

Rubio
22%

Self-Identified Tea Party Republicans

Undecided
3%

Cruz
40%
Trump
44%

Rubio
7%

Kasich
6%
Page 3 of 11

Self-Identified Libertarians
Undecided
9%

Cruz
42%

Trump
28%

Rubio Kasich
10% 11%

Self-Identified Independents
Undecided
9%
Cruz
7%

Kasich
14%

Rubio
17%

Trump
53%

Page 4 of 11

Age Ranges
18-25
3%
26-35
7%
62+
48%

36-45
12%
46-55
17%

56-61
13%

Seniors (62+)
Undecided
7%
Cruz
28%
Trump
35%

Rubio
16%

Page 5 of 11

Kasich
14%

Ages 56-61
Undecided
6%
Cruz
27%

Trump
40%

Kasich
12%
Rubio
15%

Ages 46-55
Undecided
7%
Cruz
29%

Trump
40%

Kasich
8%
Rubio
16%

Page 6 of 11

Ages 36-45
Undecided
4%
Cruz
32%

Trump
32%

Rubio
17%

Kasich
15%

Ages 26-35
Undecided
3%
Cruz
30%

Trump
29%

Rubio
24%

Kasich
14%

Page 7 of 11

Ages 18-25
Undecided
7%

Cruz
45%

Trump
25%

Rubio
19%
Kasich
4%

CD 1
Undecided
8%
Cruz
29%
Trump
30%

Rubio
18%

Kasich
15%

Page 8 of 11

CD 2
Undecided
5%
Cruz
26%

Trump
43%

Kasich
10%

Rubio
16%

CD 3
Undecided
6%
Cruz
29%
Trump
32%

Rubio
16%

Kasich
17%

Page 9 of 11

CD 4
Undecided
7%
Cruz
33%
Trump
34%

Rubio
17%

Kasich
9%

Self-Identified Gender

M
Fe

Male
50%

Female
50%

Page 10 of 11

Self Identified Race/Ethnicity

Other
4%

Asian
0%
La/no
3%

Black
4%

White
89%

Methodology
Likely Republican presidential caucus voters were selected at random from a list of
registered voters based on party participation and registration date. Household ages and
locations were extracted as well from this list. 60,000 households were called over the
duration of the poll. Each household participant was asked to opt-in to the survey if they
planned to vote in the 2016 Kansas Republican Presidential Caucus.
Using automated voice response technology allows each participant to hear the questions
exactly the same way, from the same voice, spoken with the same tone and nuance. Calls are
placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a stratified process that insures
approrpiate geographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm
local time from Wednesday, March 2nd though Thursday, March 3rd.
Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the
demographic breakdown of likely 2016 Kansas Republican Presidential Caucus participants.
Final results are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
For more information, please contact info@trf-grp.com.
Page 11 of 11

APPENDIX CROSSTABS I
18-25

26-35

44.53%
4.24%
18.94%
25.42%
6.87%

30.38%
13.59%
24.25%
28.39%
3.39%

18-25

100%

0%

26-35

0%

100%

36-45

0%

0%

46-55

0%

0%

56-61

0%

0%

62+

0%

0%

63.56%
12.35%
12.63%
2.81%
3.18%
5.46%
16.71%
32.04%
34.89%
16.36%
58.83%
41.17%
7.38%
84%
2.65%
0.00%
6.43%

45.30%
31.40%
12.08%
6.02%
3.15%
2.06%
24.36%
26.40%
22.35%
26.89%
59.58%
40.42%
1.80%
91.67%
3.39%
0.98%
2.17%

Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Undecided

Conservative
Moderate
Tea Party
Libertarian
Independent
Else
CD 1
CD 2
CD 3
CD 4
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other

36-45

46-55

56-61

62+

Conservative Moderate

31.47% 29.37% 26.73% 28.48% 43.02%

15.42% 7.72% 11.88% 14.27% 6.69%
17.33% 16.20% 14.73% 15.68% 16.15%
31.81% 39.58% 40.16% 34.66% 29.95%
3.98% 7.14% 6.51% 6.91% 4.19%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3.60%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7.35%
100%
0%
0%
0%
11.29%
0%
100%
0%
0%
18.02%
0%
0%
100%
0%
11.89%
0%
0%
0%
100% 47.85%
44.60% 48.88% 41.24% 45.80% 100%
23.21% 23.97% 25.61% 30.18% 0%
16.12% 11.66% 15.54% 10.06% 0%
5.37% 2.50% 0.83% 0.77% 0%
3.50% 3.76% 5.79% 3.24% 0%
7.19% 9.24% 10.98% 9.96% 0%
17.19% 23.40% 24.06% 21.57% 22.54%
31.62% 23.83% 24.59% 28.59% 24.76%
20.20% 25.95% 18.76% 23.61% 24.54%
30.98% 26.82% 32.59% 26.22% 28.16%
59.37% 55.93% 50.36% 43.21% 48.69%
40.63% 44.07% 49.64% 56.79% 51.31%
4.42% 2.29% 2.21% 4.76% 5.27%
86.84% 86.80% 90.89% 89.72% 89.11%
3.65% 3.42% 2.53% 2.51% 2.63%
0.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 0.16%
4.14% 7.48% 4.36% 2.82% 2.83%

Tea Party

Libertarian Independent

Else

10.38%
25.42%
21.88%
35.81%
6.51%
1.18%
8.57%
9.89%
14.87%
12.42%
53.06%

40.34%
5.61%
7.32%
44.20%
2.53%
2.75%
7.52%
15.67%
16.50%
17.20%
40.35%

41.74%
10.78%
9.71%
28.25%
9.52%
3.58%
21.90%
30.48%
20.63%
5.39%
18.02%

6.98%
14.16%
16.88%
52.59%
9.39%
2.25%
6.37%
11.06%
17.29%
20.82%
42.22%

8.19%
13.65%
16.19%
42.53%
19.44%
1.59%
1.72%
9.36%
17.52%
16.28%
53.52%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

22.71%
24.20%
27.47%
25.61%
50.22%
49.78%
2.15%
91.79%
2.89%
0.00%
3.18%

20.83%
34.85%
18.54%
25.79%
55.86%
44.14%
2.04%
90.06%
2.61%
0.00%
5.29%

8.18%
31.68%
27.78%
32.36%
73.60%
26.40%
2.79%
81.98%
0.00%
0.00%
15.24%

26.42%
38.58%
12.46%
22.55%
45.52%
54.48%
6.00%
85.16%
3.00%
0.00%
5.84%

17.55%
36.69%
12.50%
33.26%
42.69%
57.31%
3.07%
82.07%
5.03%
2.26%
7.58%

CD 1

CD 2

CD 3

CD 4

26.30%
9.84%
15.73%
43.31%
4.82%
3.04%
7.16%
13.37%
14.68%
11.84%
49.92%
41.36%
24.03%
15.16%
2.36%
5.17%
11.92%

29.17%
17.51%
15.64%
31.78%
5.90%
3.93%
7.20%
10.15%
19.00%
10.73%
48.99%
48.73%
32.41%
9.59%
2.46%
1.98%
4.83%

100%

0%

0%

32.58%
9.28%
17.26%
33.92%
6.96%
1.55%
7.29%
13.11%
16.53%
15.71%
45.81%
47.08%
25.44%
11.23%
2.41%
3.02%
10.81%
0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

29.12%
15.34%
17.69%
30.12%
7.73%
2.00%
8.35%
9.19%
18.22%
14.64%
47.60%
47.60%
28.50%
11.45%
0.77%
4.47%
7.20%

44.56% 50.20% 51.82% 51.94%

55.44% 49.80% 48.18% 48.06%
2.05% 4.58% 4.99% 3.44%
89.10% 86.53% 89.69% 90.92%
2.95% 4.96% 2.38% 1.14%
0.00% 0.40% 0.32% 0.33%
5.91% 3.52% 2.62% 4.18%

APPENDIX CROSSTABS II
Cruz

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Undecided

Male

Female

Black

White

Latino

Asian

Other

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Kasich

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

Rubio

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

Trump

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Undecided

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

3.96%
7.74%
12.50%
17.00%
12.09%
46.71%
67.53%
9.68%
16.49%
2.92%
0.88%
2.50%
21.65%
24.71%
23.06%
30.59%
46.95%
53.05%
5.27%
89.84%
1.31%
0.00%
3.58%

0.87%
8.01%
14.18%
10.33%
12.44%
54.17%
24.31%
54.87%
5.31%
1.75%
4.12%
9.64%
26.38%
21.41%
32.04%
20.17%
58.27%
41.73%
2.32%
94.24%
1.44%
0.00%
1.99%

2.98%
10.93%
12.19%
16.59%
11.80%
45.51%
44.87%
36.12%
5.30%
1.20%
3.76%
8.75%
23.28%
26.16%
21.88%
28.68%
38.73%
61.27%
2.44%
90.56%
5.05%
0.67%
1.28%

1.89%
6.02%
10.53%
19.07%
15.13%
47.36%
39.15%
27.82%
15.05%
1.65%
5.51%
10.81%
18.65%
33.90%
20.93%
26.53%
55.47%
44.53%
3.90%
86.57%
3.56%
0.47%
5.50%

27.62%
14.81%
12.87%
39.17%
5.53%
3.08%
8.92%
13.88%
19.04%
13.40%
41.68%
44.96%
27.55%
13.43%
3.03%
3.37%
7.66%
19.48%
27.74%
24.10%
28.68%

30.98%
10.53%
20.22%
31.22%
7.05%
2.14%
6.01%
9.43%
14.89%
13.12%
54.41%
47.04%
27.12%
10.54%
1.08%
4.00%
10.22%
24.07%
27.33%
22.25%
26.35%

40.56%
7.70%
10.62%
36.01%
5.10%
5.05%
3.52%
13.51%
10.20%
7.70%
60.02%
63.67%
15.40%
6.43%
1.50%
5.81%
7.20%
11.70%
33.13%
30.36%
24.81%
41.52%
58.48%

29.57%
13.40%
16.84%
34.21%
5.98%
2.45%
7.68%
11.36%
16.53%
13.54%
48.44%
46.04%
28.18%
12.12%
1.89%
3.53%
8.25%
21.80%
26.76%
23.34%
28.10%
49.34%
50.66%

13.33%
6.37%
29.13%
43.68%
7.50%
2.41%
8.81%
14.80%
20.22%
11.68%
42.07%
42.10%
27.47%
10.89%
0.00%
3.85%
15.68%
22.34%
47.56%
19.21%
10.89%
58.46%
41.54%

0.00%
0.00%
40.20%
59.80%
0.00%
0.00%
26.58%
40.20%
0.00%
0.00%
33.22%
26.58%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
73.42%
0.00%
40.20%
26.58%
33.22%
40.20%
59.80%

26.18%
6.29%
5.27%
48.24%
14.01%
4.18%
4.03%
12.02%
31.62%
14.42%
33.73%
32.49%
21.67%
15.80%
7.79%
5.37%
16.89%
32.07%
24.17%
15.11%
28.65%
62.86%
37.14%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

Cruz

18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Conservative
Moderate
Tea Party
Libertarian
Independent
Else
Ridge & Valley
Blue Ridge
Piedmont
Coastal Plain
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other

2.85%
4.02%
7.36%
19.25%
13.71%
52.82%
30.65%
28.29%
4.82%
3.11%
5.50%
27.63%
26.78%
21.07%
21.74%
30.41%
43.81% 100%
0%
56.19% 0%
100%
3.09% 3.17% 4.44% 100%
84.56% 88.17% 89.88% 0%
3.42% 3.37% 2.38% 0%
0.00% 0.22% 0.33% 0%
8.93% 5.06% 2.97% 0%