Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INITIATING COVERAGE
JUNE 18, 2012
Ruchir Khare
ruchir.khare@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6448
Stock details
BSE code
522074
NSE code
ELGIEQUIP
12,518
68.2
83.45 / 62.75
51,760
158
Summary table
(Rs mn)
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
Sales
9,390
Growth (%)
39.8
EBITDA
1,411
EBITDA margin (%)
15.0
PBT
1362
Net profit
890
EPS (Rs)
5.6
Growth (%)
34.8
CEPS (Rs)
6.3
BV (Rs/share)
21.4
DPS (Rs)
1.0
ROE (%)
29.6
ROCE (%)
32.7
Net cash (debt)
1,349
NW Capital (Days)
36.1
EV/Sales (x)
1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.9
P/E (x)
14.1
P/Cash Earnings (x)
12.5
P/BV (x)
3.7
9,897
4.8
1,083
10.9
1106
756
4.8
(15.1)
5.6
24.9
1.0
20.6
23.7
1,486
39.9
1.1
10.3
16.6
14.1
3.2
11,267
14.1
1,484
13.2
1417
949
6.0
25.5
6.9
29.6
1.1
22.0
24.8
1,652
45.1
1.0
7.5
13.2
11.4
2.7
Source: Company,
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research
RECOMMENDATION : BUY
FY13E P/E: 13.2X
Registered Office: Kotak Securities Limited, Bakhtawar, 1st floor, 229 Nariman Point, Mumbai 400021 India.
INITIATING COVERAGE
We expect that the company will likely maintain its revenue mix at current
levels with compressor business contributing to nearly 80% of revenue pie. We
opine that the company would continue to prudently manage its overheads
mitigating any increase in input prices. In our projected financials we build 13%
EBITDA margins for FY13.
Current valuations appear favorable vis--vis the potential growth in revenues.
At current price of Rs.79, stock is trading at 13.2x P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA
multiples on FY13E earnings. We believe that stock is attractively valued at the
current price. We therefore initiate coverage on EEL stock with a BUY rating
and one year DCF based target price of Rs.98.
Key Concerns
Sharp increase in raw material prices. Sharp increase in the raw material
prices especially steel and aluminum would negatively affect company's
profitability. In our estimates, we build a moderate increase in key raw material
costs which is likely to get absorbed by the company achieving economies of
scale going ahead.
Increasing competition. Low HP (< 20 HP) compressor segment is highly
fragmented and there exists stiff competition between various players both
from unorganized sector and organized players. In large HP category, company
faces competition mainly from multi-national players. We believe that the
company has grown commendably in the past amidst higher competitive
intensity in the industry and is likely to maintain meaningful growth going
ahead.
Slowdown in domestic industrial activity. Compressor segment growth is
highly correlated with the overall economic activity mainly mining,
hydrocarbon, transport, power, oil, railways etc. Any slowdown in the industrial
capex program would imply lower off take of company's products.
INITIATING COVERAGE
COMPANY OVERVIEW
EEL is one of Indias leading
manufacturers of air compressors
with nearly 30% market share in
the domestic market
Incorporated in year 1960, Elgi Equipment Limited (EEL) is one of Indias leading
manufacturers of air compressors with nearly 30% market share in the domestic
market. It is engaged in the manufacturing of borewell, reciprocating, centrifugal
and screw compressors. Company also manufactures automotive garage equipment
that includes lifting equipment, body shop equipment, wheel servicing equipment
etc.
Companys business is aligned into two major segments 1) Compressors business
that accounts for over 80% of the total revenue pie and 2) Automotive Equipment
(AE). Over the past few decades, it has emerged as a market leader in the
domestic compressor market and has developed strong relationship with key players
like Tata Motors, Sony, M&M, ESAB, BHEL, Bosch etc. It has two state of the art
manufacturing plants in Coimbatore with combined installed capacity of 32500
compressors per annum.
Air
Compressors
Reciprocating Air
Compressors
Automotive
Equipment
Railway Compressors
and OE
Electrical Locomotives
Lifting Equipment
Diesel Locomotives
Expressors
Wheel Service
Equipment
Auxiliary Compressors
Diasgnostic Equipment
Exhausters
Lube Equipment
Water raising
apparatus
Flume Exhaust
Extraction Systems
LG Series Reciprocating
Washing Equipment
Pneumatic Tools
Air Compressor
Benefitting from the low cost operating model, company has effectively leveraged
its strong foothold in India to expand its operations into the overseas markets. To
differentiate EEL has envisaged a strategy of entering into strategic alliances
through joint ventures and acquiring companies overseas that offer strategic
fitment. Company through its subsidiaries is present in all major markets across the
globe which includes Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, Australia,
Middle East, South East Asia, West Asia and the Far East.
EEL is a technologically driven company and pays adequate emphasis on the
research and development capabilities. It constantly ventures into new initiative
related to technological advancement.
INITIATING COVERAGE
Over the last five years, EEL has grown consolidated revenues and profits by 22%
and 38% CAGR respectively mainly boosted by the compressor business growth in
domestic as well as overseas markets. It has commendably gained market share in
domestic market competing with some of the multinational players like Atlas
Copco, Ingersoll rand etc.
Company has a strong balance sheet and its major capex programs have been
funded through internal accruals. With an extensive distribution network and highly
qualified and motivated personnel base, ELGI aims at establishing itself as
meaningful global player in its core products.
INITIATING COVERAGE
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
XII five-year plan projected
investments of USD 1025 billion
and its impact on the growth of
heavy industries is expected to
spur the growth for compressors
The global market for compressed air equipment and aftermarket is characterized
by a diversified customer base. Air compressors are used in wide spectrum of
applications in which compressed air is used as a source of power or as an
integrated part of industrial process. Gas compressors find use in any industry where
gases are handled as part of the manufacturing process, such as vanaspati,
fertilizers, refineries, etc. apart from usage in gas purification and bottling plants
including LPG bottling.
Some of the applications of air compressors other than mining and construction are
stated below:
Application of air compressors
Industry
Applications
Textile
Pneumatic operations
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Pneumatic operations
Plastics
Dairy
FFS Machines
Pneumatic operations
Automobiles
Railways
Availability of technically skilled manpower, coupled with cheap unskilled labor has been drawing many multinational companies to either establish manufacturing facilities into the country directly or
through joint ventures with indigenous suppliers. Also, given the
economic downturn in the Western countries, several global companies are looking at India as a viable destination for business.
Since the beginning of the establishment of the compressor industry in India, Air
and Gas compressors have been manufactured with foreign technical collaboration.
Most of the established manufacturers continue to enter into foreign collaborations
for producing new types of compressors or for updating and expanding the present
range. The industry has huge entry barrier with respect to technology and initial
capital outlay.
Indian compressor industry size is estimated at Rs 30 bn currently. Compressors of
power rating up to 5 hp have been dominated by small scale sector. It is estimated
that there are around 35 40 manufacturers of these small compressors spread all
over the country. These small compressors are mainly used for garage type
applications and the technology involved is very simple and does not require
sophisticated machinery.
Government initiatives on infrastructure have led to a healthy growth in heavy
industries in India. Considering the possibility of over 6.5-7% percent economic
growth over the coming years, high growth can be anticipated in the majority of the
heavy industries like metals and mining, hydrocarbons, cement and power. The
planning commissions infrastructure-related investment projection for the 12th fiveyear plan of USD 1025 billion and its impact on the growth of heavy industries is
expected to spur the growth of pumps, valves and compressors over the next couple
of years.
INITIATING COVERAGE
1200
1025
900
514
600
300
227
0
XPlan
XIPlan
XIIPlan
We believe that buyer preference for compressors has also witnessed a shift over
the last few years. End user emphasis on efficiency and energy saving has resulted
in preference for integrated solution providers who offer equipment along with
necessary spares, services and support.
Only a few indigenous suppliers like EEL along with multinational companies are
able to offer desired cost-effective solutions to the customers. We believe that this is
one of the major challenges for most of the small and medium-scale manufacturers
who lack the required capital and technical expertise. As a consequence, we
believe that this is likely to reduce growth prospects for small participants and
eventually will lead to consolidation in the industry.
Indian Oil & Gas Industry
According to Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), domestic crude oil
refining sector currently has combined annual installed capacity of 185.40 mmt per
annum and capacity additions of 23.88 mmt per annum has been planned under XII
Five Year Plan in the existing refineries. Additionally, during the XII Five Year Plan,
54.00 mmt p.a. capacity additions is planned under new refineries to be set up by
companies such as IOCL, Essar Oil Limited, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited.
According to the MoPNG, XII year plan would entail total investment of Rs 1.2
trillion.
Indian infrastructure sector
India has been witnessing meaningful growth in the infrastructure spends, both from
Government and the private sector. The primary growth in the infrastructure is
driven by power, transportation, petroleum and urban infrastructure.
According the Planning Commissions report on Projections of Investment in
Infrastructure, the Twelfth Five Year Plan envisages a total investment of US$ 1
trillion in the infrastructure sector to bridge the infrastructure deficit and sustain a
growth momentum of 9% per annum. This will lead to commissioning of large
number of construction projects and is likely to auger well for companys operations.
Indian Mining and Metallurgy sector
India is one of the leading countries possessing mineral resources like mica, bauxite,
iron ore, manganese ore, zinc and aluminum.
Growing global demand for minerals and metals, particularly in Asia is expected to
result in new opportunities for Indian mining companies. This is expected to
increase demand for compressors in the Indian mining and metallurgy sector
INITIATING COVERAGE
Water
According to the Planning Commission, India accounts for 16% of the worlds
population and has only 4.0% of the total available fresh water. 85-89% of the
usable water is consumed for irrigation in India. The increasing population along
with the demand for crops like wheat and rice that require a greater quantity of
water is likely to put increasing pressure on the available water resources in near
future.
Recently government has increased its budgetary allocations on various projects
related to the availability of fresh water that includes desalination, preserving water
bodies, sewerage treatment and strengthening distribution channels.
A committee appointed by the government, led by Dr Ahluwalia has envisaged a
spending of USD 174 bn over next 20 years across water purification, storage and
supply projects.
Leveraging on the low cost and skilled manpower base in India domestic
compressor manufacturers have started to focus on export markets. EEL, IngersollRand (I) and Atlas Copco have been very successful in their export efforts. USA, UK,
USSR, Belgium and Italy are the major countries to which compressors are exported
from India.
Currently US markets have been witnessing revival in the infrastructure spending
generating significant demand for compressors. Europe along with emerging
markets such as China, Brazil, India etc are likely to witness pick-up in demand
through FY13 driven mainly by 1) continued momentum in mining segment and 2)
pick up in construction sector.
EEL has been positioning itself as a service oriented company in the overseas
market especially in geographies like China where it faces stiff competition from
multinational players like Atlas Copco, Ingersoll Rand, Sullair compare etc along
with host of local manufacturers.
INITIATING COVERAGE
Competitive landscape
EEL faces competition from
domestic as well as international
players across segments
The Indian market for compressors has traditionally been oligopolic in nature. Being
capital intensive, industry has been dominated by international companies like Atlas
Copco and Ingersoll Rand. Apart from players like BHEL, ELGI, KPCL and few
others, there are no major indigenous manufacturers of compressors in India.
Competition in the industry has been intensifying, with many multinational
companies setting up operations in India. Existing multinationals are also making
additional investments to aggressively target the expanding Indian markets.
The major international players in the field of Air & Gas compressors are:
Company
Country of origin
Ingersoll-Rand
USA
Atlas Copco
Sweden
Kobe Steels
Japan
Hitachi
Japan
Joy Compressors
USA
Germany
Sundyne Compressors
USA
Hokuetsu Industries
Japan
France
Elliot
USA
Nuovo Pignone
Italy
Dresser-Rand
USA
Demag
Germany
Japan
Borsig
Germany
Sullair Corporation
USA
Sulzer
Germany
Burckhardt Compression
Switzerland
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) and Bharat Pumps and Compressors Ltd are
two public sector units in the field of Centrifugal compressors in domestic market.
They manufacture large heavy duty compressors for customized/tailor-made
applications. Kirloskar Pneumatic has also been bidding aggressively for expanding
its market share.
EEL with its extensive distribution network and direct sales channel enjoys market
share of nearly 30% in the domestic market. It has also been increasing its
presence in the overseas markets through organic and inorganic route. It is mainly
present in medium segment compressor ranging from 0.75 to 1500 HP and
competes mainly on price and service with its competitors.
INITIATING COVERAGE
Over the past few decades, it has emerged as a market leader in the domestic
market and has developed strong relationship with key players like Tata Motors,
Sony, M&M, ESAB, BHEL, Bosch, HP, Bayer, Crompton Greaves etc. Company
product line consists of Rotary Compressors, Reciprocating Compressors, Centrifugal
Compressors, Automotive Equipment, Diesel Engines and Manufacturing and
engineering services.
Companys domain knowledge and effective overseas alliances with players like J.P
Sauer & Sohn, Germany has enabled the company to provide global standards
products to its end customer. By earning the tag of one stop garage solution
provider, company has steadily grown to capture a large market share in India.
ELGI manufactures compressors covering a range from 0.75HP to 1500HP for
volumes from 1.8 cfm (cubic feet per minute) to 80000 cfm. ELGIs has envisaged
its marketing strategy which involves partnering with customers to provide
customized solutions for their operations.
Company manufactures almost all of its products in house and sources key
components domestically. This facilitates company in producing superior products at
nearly 10-12% discounts vis--vis competitors. EEL also has the license to
manufacture SDS series of Hitachi compressors. These are marketed as Elgi NH
Series Compressors in India.
Compressor segment consists of following major sub-divisions
Division
Core Competencies
Reciprocating Compressors,
Railway Compressors and Original
Equipment Division (RCD)
EEL derives a major part of its revenue pie (nearly 80%) from the compressor
business catering to a wide range of end user industry including mining, transport
pharmaceuticals, power, hydrocarbons etc. It has two state of the art manufacturing
plants in Coimbatore with combined installed capacity of 32500 compressors p.a.
INITIATING COVERAGE
Competition in domestic in medium HP segment arises from MNC players like Atlas
Copco and Ingersoll Rand. Kirloskar Pneumatic and EEL are among the domestic
players having meaningful market presence. We believe that cost effectiveness and
efficient aftersales are the key for success for any player. We highlight that EEL
has commendably established its strong positioning in the market amidst
stiff competition from various established players and new entrants. It has
grown its revenues at a much faster pace (approximately 23% CAGR in last
6 years) than several established players.
EEL
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
2,316.10
2,374.10
2,999.50
4,180.70
4,711.50
5828
7964
22.9
Ingersoll Rand
2,537
2,828
3,326
4,222
4,046
3,717
4,790
11.2
3,356
4,614
6,344
7,982
7,759
10,888
N.A
N.A
Kirloskar Pneumatic
2,404
2,635
3,081
3,231
4,269
3,904
4,353
10.4
From historical perspective, water-well segment has been an important driver for
the domestic compressor demand in India. Over the last few years, company has
successfully increased market share in other segments such as mining, construction,
cement, power, transport etc. We highlight that despite the fact that the water well
segment has been experiencing cyclical slowdown since past three years, company
has commendably managed to derive and grow its revenues from other segments
across geographies. In future, company focus would continue on industrial
applications and high potential oriented international markets.
Consolidated revenue and margin trend
EBITDA(RsmnLHS)
Sales(RsmnLHS)
EBITDA(%RHS)
10500
Water-well segment has been an
important driver for the domestic
compressor demand in India and
is currently observing cyclical
slowdown
8500
16.5
Diversified revenue
streams counters
slowdown in
waterwell industry
Slowdown in
waterwell
segment
15.0
6500
13.5
4500
12.0
2500
10.5
9.0
500
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company
Automotive segment
EEL through its fully owned subsidiary ATS ELGI, caters to the automotive segment.
ATS Elgi is a leading manufacturer and distributor of automotive service equipment
in India. Automotive segment thrives mainly on the passenger car sales and
constitutes to nearly 12% of the overall revenue pie.
It manufactures nearly 35 equipment and 150 tools and accessories including
lubrication equipment, two-wheeler and four-wheeler hoists, paint booths, AC
recovery units, crash repair systems, wheel balancers and other diagnostic
equipment.
10
INITIATING COVERAGE
ATS ELGI manufactures or deals in garage equipment under the following eight
verticals:
Product profile
Automotive segment thrives
mainly on the passenger car sales
and constitutes to nearly 12% of
the overall revenue pie.
Category
Key products
Lifting Equipment
Washing Equipment
Lube Equipment
Diagnostic Equipment
Pneumatic Tools
Special Products
This segment is highly fragmented and the company has established itself as a
major organized player on back of new product inclusions and superior service
offerings. Company has grown at 15% CAGR between FY06-12 in the segment.
We believe that the company is well poised to grow in the Automotive segment on
account of 1) Indian passenger car segment growing at an average rate of 12-15%
per annum and 2) launching of new passenger car models in India that is bound to
fuel the demand for strengthened service network.
Automotive segment sales trend
1200
900
600
300
0
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Company
International presence offers geographical diversification; favorable Joint ventures and strategic domestic/overseas tie ups
strengthens companys offering
For expanding inorganically
company has envisaged the
strategy of acquiring multi-local
companies of small to medium
size with strong brand names
and market access.
In order to widen the spectrum of offerings and explore new geographies for
growth, EEL has envisaged a strategy of entering into strategic alliances through
joint ventures and acquiring companies overseas that offer strategic fitment. In
Europe, company follows the strategy of acquiring multi-local companies of small to
medium size with strong brand names and market access.
Company through its subsidiaries is present in all major markets across the globe
which includes Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, Australia, Middle
East, South East Asia, West Asia and the Far East. It has been positioning itself as a
service oriented player in order to differentiate itself in highly competitive
international markets.
11
INITIATING COVERAGE
Relationship
SAS Belair
Subsidiary
Elgi Equipment
Zhejiang Limited
(China)/ Elgi
Compressors
Trading (Shanghai)
Co. Ltd. (China)
Elgi-Gulf (FZE)
Elgi Sauer
Compressors
Limited
Adisons Precision
Instruments
Manufacturing
Company Limited
% Ownership
Geography
Focus Area
Rationale
Current Status
100
France
Adding to the
current product
range of Belair
and leveraging
upon its 25 years
old presence in
European region
Company expected
to grow better than
industry and break even
in next few quarters
Subsidiary
100
China
Highly competitive
region, capture market
share in local market
over next two to three
years. Also start
exporting to other
regions from China
in longer run.
Subsidiary
100
Middle East
Medium range
compressors finding
application construction
activity
Several Indian
organizations are
engaged in the
construction activity
and they offer
reasonable opportunity
to the company.
26
India
Defense, shipping,
industrial and
offshore market
Consolidating the
engineering,
indigenization and
product support
capabilities of both
the entities
100
India
Joint Venture
Subsidiary
EEL has acquired Belair S.A France in the year 2010 at the EV of EUR 0.7 mn.
Belair S.A is engaged in assembly, sales and service of industrial compressors,
piping, fittings and accessories for over 25 years. It enjoys nearly 3% share in
French market. Management aims at adding to the current product range of Belair
and has already started the complete units of Air compressors from India.
In china, EEL operates through its subsidiary Elgi Equipment (Zhejiang) Limited,
Jiaxing, China. Company has been focusing on large screw compressors and rotary
screw compressor market and expects to break even in FY14. However,
management eyes Chinese market as a long term strategic investment and plans to
keep investing for over the next two to three years before it starts generating
meaningful profits.
A large proportion of its
international business comes
from repeat sales and established
customer base
Company has also entered into highly attractive Brazilian market in the year 2008
to tap the local market growing at meaningful rate and also to use it as a base to
tap neighbouring countries such as Chile, Columbia and Argentina.
EELs success in overseas markets in evident from the fact that a large proportion of
its international business comes from repeat sales and established customer base.
Its expertise in compressed air technology, backed by an efficient manufacturing
base and competent distribution network provides competitive edge to the
company.
12
INITIATING COVERAGE
We project 14.1% growth in revenues from Rs. 9.8 bn in FY12 to Rs. 11.2 bn in
FY13E on back of 1) pick up in the domestic infrastructure spending viz. hydrocarbons, mining, construction and water segments 2) revival in international
demand for compressors and 3) increased contribution from company's key
overseas subsidiaries.
We highlight that stationary industrial air compressors and associated air treatment products and after market represents 60-70% of sales. Large gas and process compressors represents almost 10% and the balance is represented by portable compressors, generators.
Revenue Trend
15000
Revenues(RsmnLHS)
AssetTurnover(xRHS)
5.5
12000
5.0
9000
4.5
6000
4.0
3000
3.5
3.0
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
13
INITIATING COVERAGE
Compressors
AutoEquip
9000
6000
3000
0
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
We expect the company to leverage its effective track record in India to expand
its operations internationally. We believe that being stationed in India, company
is likely to immensely benefit from its low cost operating model providing competitive edge vis--vis peer group.
In the past few years company has recorded growth in geographies like Middle
East, Europe, Australia and Brazil. Company is likely to break even in China in
FY13E where it is present through its subsidiary.
Over the next 3-4 years, we
believe that the share of exports
is likely to increase to 35-40% of
total revenues of the company
14
INITIATING COVERAGE
1200
1000
800
600
400
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA(RsmnLHS)
EBITDA(%RHS)
1600
16%
1200
15%
800
13%
400
12%
10%
0
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
7964
8287
9529
36.6
7.5
15.0
1135
1300
1391
28.1
3.0
7.0
1191
790
1277
61.6
EBIT
Compressors
YoY %
34
(33.6)
Auto Equip
127
151
181
YoY %
29.6
19.2
19.6
EBIT %
Compressors
15.0
12.1
13.4
Auto Equip
11.2
12.7
13.0
15
INITIATING COVERAGE
Compressors(%)
AutoEquip(%)
14.5
13.0
11.5
10.0
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
We opine that the working capital is likely to increase marginally from current
10.5% of sales to 11% in FY13E due to increase in inventory days from 42 days
currently to 44 days at the end of FY13.
Working capital
Rs (mn)
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
987
1146
1474
36
40
45
Current Assets
4181
4539
5160
Inventory
1148
1262
1440
inventory days
Sundry Debtors
42
44
44
11758
1233
1407
Debtors days
43
43
43
30
33
102
1828
2011
2212
1399
1536
1702
3193
3393
3686
244
273
296
16
16
16
1258
1415
1537
81
83
83
1691
1705
1852
109
100
100
16
INITIATING COVERAGE
Debtor/Sales
12000
Revenues(RsmnLHS)
Debtors/Sales(%RHS)
15.0
9000
14.0
6000
13.0
3000
12.0
11.0
0
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
RoE trend
EBIT(RsmnLHS))
ROCE(%RHS)
ROE(%RHS)
1600
36.0%
1200
27.0%
800
18.0%
400
9.0%
0.0%
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
We expect that the company is likely to benefit from its strong balance sheet to
fuel its future growth. Stable margins and higher return on Equity at 25% are
expected to result in net operating cash flow at Rs 970 mn in FY13E vis--vis Rs
823 mn in FY12E.
17
INITIATING COVERAGE
At current price of Rs.79, stock is trading at 13.2x P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA
multiples on FY13E earnings.
We value the company using DCF valuation methodology that derives a price
target of Rs.98 per share, implying an upside of 25% over a 12- month horizon.
Our DCF model employs a WACC of 13.09%, beta of 0.85 and terminal growth
of 4%.
At our target price of Rs 98, stock would trade at 16.3x P/E on FY13E earnings.
We highlight the P/E band below that reflects the valuation trend from the historical perspective.
EEL P/E Band
120
EEL
7x
9x
11x
14x
Jun10
Nov10
90
60
30
0
Oct08
Mar09
Aug09
Jan10
Apr11
Sep11
Feb12
We initiate coverage on the EEL stock with a BUY rating and a target
price of Rs.98, over a 12-month horizon.
18
INITIATING COVERAGE
DCF valuation
Free Cash Flow to Firm
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
PAT
922
1235
1551
1871
2132
2528
2838
2981
Add Depreciation
145
150
155
160
166
172
178
184
(34)
(32)
(31)
(30)
(29)
(30)
(31)
(32)
Less change in WC
(328)
(42)
(303)
(364)
(393)
(464)
(365)
(170)
(400)
(150)
(150)
(150)
(150)
(150)
(160)
(160)
FCFF
305
1160
1222
1488
1726
2056
2460
2804
Discounting Factor
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
313
1053
980
1055
1082
1140
1206
1215
Sensitivity Analysis
Assumptions
Adjusted beta
0.9
8.0
Risk premium
Cost of equity%
Cost of debt%
12.00%
13.00%
13.39%
14.00%
15.00%
6.0
2.50%
103.29
93.45
90.18
85.58
79.17
13.1
3.00%
105.77
95.26
91.79
86.93
80.18
7.0
3.50%
108.54
97.26
93.56
88.40
81.28
4.00%
111.66
99.47
95.51
90.01
82.49
WACC%
13.1
Equity(Rs mn)
3383
50
4.50%
115.20
101.95
97.69
91.80
83.80
3433
5.00%
119.24
104.74
100.12
93.78
85.25
5.50%
123.90
107.90
102.86
96.00
86.85
8244
6025
Total FCFF
14268
(1349)
Shareholder's value
15617
98
42.2
19
INITIATING COVERAGE
Q4FY12
Q4FY11
YoY (%)
2709
2435
11.2
(28)
(12)
134.7
Material consumed
1648
1469
12.2
Employee expenses
319
250
27.4
Other expenses
509
436
16.7
Total Expenses
2447
2143
14.2
EBITDA
262
292
(10.3)
Other income
66
37
77.8
Depreciation
38
34
9.3
290
295
(1.5)
EBIT
Net Interest
PBT
Total tax
PAT
288
293
(1.6)
77
112
(31.3)
211
181
16.8
58.2
EPS (Rs)
1.3
0.8
EBITDA%
9.7
12.0
26.7
38.3
Q4FY12
Q4FY11
2284
2023
12.9
345
309
11.7
182
243
(25.2)
41
21
94.7
8.0
12.0
11.8
6.8
Tax Rate %
Source: Company
Segmental table
YoY (%)
20
INITIATING COVERAGE
KEY CONCERNS
Sharp increase in raw material prices
Sharp increase in the raw material prices especially steel and aluminum would
negatively affect companys profitability. In our estimates, we build a moderate
increase in key raw material costs which is likely to get absorbed by the company
achieving economies of scale going ahead.
Increasing competition
Low HP (< 20 HP) compressor segment is highly fragmented and there exists stiff
competition between various players both from unorganized sector and organized
players. In large HP category, company faces competition mainly from multinational players. We believe that the company has grown commendably in the past
amidst higher competitive intensity in the industry and is likely to maintain
meaningful growth going ahead.
Slowdown in domestic industrial activity
Compressor segment growth is highly correlated with the overall economic activity
mainly mining, hydrocarbon, transport, power, oil, railways etc. Any slowdown in
the industrial capex program would imply lower off take of companys products.
21
INITIATING COVERAGE
FINANCIALS
Profit and Loss Statement (Rs mn)
(Year-end March)
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
(Year-end March)
Revenues
9,390
9,897
11,267
39.8
4.8
14.1
1,411
1,083
1,484
% change yoy
34.3
(23.3)
Depreciation
115
132
1,297
951
1,340
35.9
(26.6)
40.8
Current Assets
WIP
% change yoy
EBITDA
EBIT
% change yoy
Net Interest
Earnings Before Tax
% change yoy
Tax
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
FY11
FY12(E)
FY13(E)
1,399
1,536
1,702
Accounts receivable
1,175
1,233
1,407
37.1
1,828
2,011
2,212
145
Inventories
1,148
1,262
1,440
4,181
4,539
5,160
987
1,146
1,474
Misc expenditure
(50)
1,410
1,106
1,417
LT investments
173
173
173
38.1
(21.6)
28.0
844
1,112
1,367
472
350
467
Total Assets
3,455
4,020
4,769
34.6
31.7
33.0
Provisions
1,691
1,705
1,852
49
Current Liabilities
3,193
3,393
3,686
Recurring PAT
890
756
949
% change yoy
34.8
(15.1)
25.5
LT debt
50
50
50
31
31
31
as % of EBT
XO Items
Minority Interest
158.5
158.5
158.5
EPS (Rs)
5.6
4.8
6.0
3,383
3,948
4,697
DPS (Rs)
1.0
1.0
1.1
Total Liabilities
3,464
4,028
4,778
CEPS
6.3
5.6
6.9
BVPS (Rs)
21
25
30
Ratio Analysis
(Year-end March)
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
1,410
1,106
1,417
Depreciation
115
132
145
697
200
292
inc in inventory
361
115
178
269
58
inc in advances
488
183
Tax Paid
472
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
15.0
10.9
13.2
13.8
9.6
11.9
9.5
7.6
8.4
34.8
(15.1)
25.5
174
Receivables (days)
43.0
43.0
43.0
201
Inventory (days)
41.9
44.0
44.0
350
467
4.9
4.4
4.3
69
N.M
N.M
N.M
625
729
765
0.0
0.0
0.0
(235)
(400)
(400)
ROE (%)
29.6
20.6
22.0
(248)
(401)
(400)
ROCE (%)
32.7
23.7
24.8
23
Add:
Other Adjustments
Net cash from operations
less:
Purchase of fixed Assets
Net investments
Net cash from investing
secured
unsecured
Dividend Paid
(1)
EV/ Sales
1.2
1.1
1.0
(184)
(191)
(200)
EV/EBITDA
7.9
10.3
7.5
14.1
16.6
13.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
12.5
14.1
11.4
(191)
(200)
215
137
166
1,406
1,536
1,702
(Year-end March)
22
INITIATING COVERAGE
Saurabh Agrawal
Metals, Mining
agrawal.saurabh@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6309
Ruchir Khare
Capital Goods, Engineering
ruchir.khare@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6448
Amit Agarwal
Logistics, Transportation
agarwal.amit@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6222
Sanjeev Zarbade
Capital Goods, Engineering
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6305
Saday Sinha
Banking, NBFC, Economy
saday.sinha@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6312
Ritwik Rai
FMCG, Media
ritwik.rai@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6310
Jayesh Kumar
Economy
kumar.jayesh@kotak.com
+91 22 6652 9172
Teena Virmani
Construction, Cement, Mid Cap
teena.virmani@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6302
Arun Agarwal
Automobiles
arun.agarwal@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6143
Sumit Pokharna
Oil and Gas
sumit.pokharna@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6313
K. Kathirvelu
Production
k.kathirvelu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6311
Amol Athawale
amol.athawale@kotak.com
+91 20 6620 3350
Premshankar Ladha
premshankar.ladha@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6261
Rahul Sharma
sharma.rahul@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6198
Malay Gandhi
malay.gandhi@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6350
Prashanth Lalu
prashanth.lalu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6110
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