The rise of ISIL and the increasing number of inspiredattacks in the West

Objective
This assessment brings together the most significant trends in global terrorism Identified by ITAC In 2014,

Executive Summary
Terrorism threat to Canada and U.S.
In 2014, Canada and the United States (U.S.) experienced lone-actor, terrorist attacks from extremists who were
inspired by messaging from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and al Qaida (AQ).

Increased levels of terrorism in Western Europe

In 2014, West European countries faced an increasing terrorism threat from inspired Islamist extremists.

AG versus ISIL
The ongoing dispute between AQ and ISIL escalated throughout 2014, following aI-Zawahlris expulsion of ISIL
from AQ. ISILs dramatic terntorial gains and subsequent declaration of an Islamic caliphate in June 2014

ISIL.s Influence gaining ground In Africa

Most African theatres of violent iliad were characterized by political upheaval, relatively low levels of government
presence, and a general absence of public security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat in Africa was further
aggravated by the growing influence of the lSlL.

..

ASSESSMENT NOTE
This paper references muitlpLe ITAC reports that remain relevant
It is based on a review of a wide variety of sources

4i

ti

TOP SECRET
TA15148-E

..

CONTENT
MESSAGING
Social Media comes of age as a toot for terrorists

Pages 3- 4

CANADA and the UNITED STATES

The growing extremist threat from lone-actor/small scale attacks

Pages 5 -6

WESTERN EUROPE
Extremist travellers, returnees and inspired attacks

Pages 7 -8

ASIA
Sustained counter-terrorism pressure and the growing influence of ISIL

Pages 9 12

MIDDLE EAST
ISIL emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism

Pages 13- 16

AFRICA
Terrorist groups adapting to lSlLs challenge to AQa leadership

;,.

Pages 17 20
-

TOP SECRT
TA 15148-E.

.:

.% Q,..

MESSAGING
Social Media comes of age as a tool for terronsts

ISIL and AQ social media exploitation

1. OnlIne resources such as
English-language jihadi magazines e.g. Islaml State of Iraq and The
Levants (ISIL) Dabiq and Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsulas (AQAP) Inspire
V

2014 has seen a rise In the exploitation of social media tools to disseminate extremist messaging and propaganda.

ISIL propaganda and extremist messaging

4. Extremist messaging continues to emphasize a move towards less complex, small scale plots, against
soft targets undertaken by individuals already based In the West.
ISIL and AQAP signature magazines respectively Dabiq and Inspire,

ISILs messaging
5.
Military victories on the battlefield, mass executions of enemies, and The beheading of Western hostages
are examples of occasions which provide the video and still images that give ISIL propaganda

TOP SECRET
TA 15148-E

CANADA and the UNITED STATES

The growing extremist threat from Ione-actorlsmall sale attacks
Canada and U.S. targeted in 2014
8. In 2014, Canada and the United States
(U.S.) experienced lone-actor, terrorist
attacks from extremists who were inspired
by messaging from ISIL and AQ.

I
Martin Couture-Roulaau

These relatively simpler

attacks are charactensed by less
preparation and planning,

Attack in St-Jean-sur-Rlchelieu: On 2014 10 20, MrdZ

Cauture-Rouleau drove his car Into three members of the
.Canadian Armed Forces (CAP) in a parking lot ri St-Jean-sur.
Jt1eHeu, Quebec. One soldier was killed. Couture-RouIaU
fithe scene but was killed by pursuing police after crashing-:
his vehicle 4 kms away.
(TH14!125)

Inspired terrorist attacks in Canada are

the principal terrorism threat to the
country

Michael Zehaf Bibeau

Messaging from both ISIL and
AQ has called for direct attacks In Canada
and the U.S. The two terrorist attacks that
took place in Canada on 2014 10 20 and
2014 10 22 featured lone-actors targeting
urilfomied soldiers and a federal
government ns1ltution.
Both attacks
demonstrated that ISIL has successfully
inspired Individuals to target their
homeland.

Attack in Ottawa: On 2014 10 22 Michael Zehaf Blbeau shot t$

and killed a uniformed soldier standing guard at the National
War Memorial in Ottawa. He then attacked Parliament HIll,
forcing his way into Parliaments Centre Block before he was
shot and kllled by security guards.
(TH1 41127)

Extremist travellers leave Canada and

U.S.
10. Canada and the U.S. continue to be a
source of exiremist travellers, with
violent jihad in countries hke Syria, Iraq and Somalia.

Canadian and U.S. citizens travelling overseas to wage

TOP SECRET
TAi5/4

Recruitment at home for jiliad abroad

12.
as 01Apr11 2015, there were
individuals who returned to Canada after travelling abroad
are believed to have been active outside Canada in Islamist
for suspected terrorism-related purposes, Mother
extremist activities, including
in Syria and Iraq.

Simple attacks and undefended targets

15.
The attacks on a Canadian soldier in StJean-sur-Richelieu on 2014 10 20 and in Ottawa on
2014 1023 serve as examples.

TOP SECRET

-,

tAi.5148-E

WESTERN EUROPE
Extremist travellers,

returnees and

inspired attacks

Terrorist attacks in Western Europe

16.

,,
-

There were tour successful ISIL

Inspired lone-actor/small scale attacks in
Western Europe (see text box) and at least
six disrupted plots. One attack in 2014 was
perpetrated by a returnee who fought with
ISIL in Syria.

--

Terrorist attacksm Westenppef.44015

.201405 24, Belgium, Brussels ISIL returnee Mehdl
Nemniouche, a French national, attacked.the Jewish Museum,
-

2014 12 20, France, Jou-les-Tours ISIL supporter, French

Burundian, Bertrand Nzohabonayo attacked police officer.

20i4 1221, France, Dijon A man yelled AUahu Akbar &oye a

car into crowds.
-

-.

i2O14 1222, France, Nantes A man yelled AJlahu Akbar drove

-

jO-vn into shoppers.

2Q-1501 02, France, Metz A man attacked a police officer

yelling Allahu Akbar.
Locally..based extremist activity
18. In 2014, West European countries laced
an increasing terrorism threat from inspired
Isiamist extremists.

2015 01 06, Turkey, Istanbul

;.9ked a police station.

-.

A female suicide bomber

2Oj 01 07, Frances Paris Brothers, Said and Cherlf Kouatl,j

with1lnks to AQ in Yemen, attacked the offices of Charlie
Hebdo

2016 01 07, France, near Paris An indIvIdual shot a jogger

ii The gun was traced to lSlL supporter Amedy Coulibaly

.201501 08, France, Paris Amedy Coullbaly, an associatofb

Kouachi brothers, attacked a policewoman.
-

Movement of West European extremist

travellers SyrIa and Iraq
19. West Europeans travelling to Syria and
Iraq to join ISIL as well as AQ affiliate
Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN),

201501 08, France, Paris

sing explosives.
201601 09, France, Paris
Jewish store.

Amedy Coulibaly blew up a car

.

Amedy Coulibaly held hostages ifla

20150203, France, Nice Mousse Coulibaly (unrelated to

Amedy) attacked a soldier near a Jewish center.
-

During 2014,. the movement of

extremist travellers hi Western Europe to
and from Syria/Iraq continued,
In 2014,
the established travel facilitation networks
along the Turkey-Syria border, continued to
operate

201602 14, Denmark, Copenhagen ISIL supporter Omar

Abdel Hamid El-Hussein attacked polices officers guarding a free
speech event attended by Swedish cartoonist Lars Vllks.

201502 15, Denmark, Copenhagen Omar El-Hussein

attacked security guard and police officers near a Jewish
synagogue.

TOPSECRET

TA 15i4$-E

Numbers of Western extremist travellers

20. While estimates vary, the bulk of Western extremist travellers are from Europe (Western and Eastern Europe),
including indMduals from Russia.
The anti-ISIL coalition
airstrikes that began in September 2014 have not deterred prospective ISIL fighters from attempting to travel to
Syria.
-

Extremist traveller returnees

21. The movement of extremist travellers from Western Europe to Syria and Iraq has been Increasing year on year
since 2011.
the arrests in early 2015 of an iSlL-affihiated group in Belgium, have heighteried concern
in the West of returnees from Syria and Iraq.

22. An example of the returnee threat in

Western Europe was when French
national and Syria returnee Mehdl
Nemmouche conducted an attack on
2014 05 24 at the Jewish Museum in
Brussels,
Belgium.
He
used a
Kalashnikov rifle, and shot and kUled four
persons.

Significant aflests and cheies In 2014

2014, Belgium & Holland Police in Brussels arrested two

DLltch nationals of Turkish origin a woman and a men m
ppction to a plot to target the European Unio;U
oImissIon Belgian police conducted a subsequent operation
r
Wetlng an apartment in Brussels while Dutch police condcted
ra raid in The Hague and seized jihadist material
,,

At the
time of the shooting, he was on a French
terrorist watch-list, but had traveled
through other European countries to
reach Belgium, thus avoiding detection.
He was subsequently arrested and
exiradited to Belgium where he awaits
trial.
Countering the terrorism threat to

Western Europe
23. In 2014, West European authorities
camed out a number of counter-terrorism
(CT) operations. These operations were
primarily directed agaUist suspects with
known or suspected ties to terrorist
groups such as ISIL or who may have
been inspired by ISILs messaging to
carry-out attacks In Europe. As a
reflection of the growing terrorist threat to
Europe, between 2013 and 2014 a
number of European countries raised their
domestic threat level

2014 11, Austria: Police in Austria arrested 13 people suspaCte(t

ofr4dicalizliig young people and recruiting them to fight in Syria.
Authorities also seized errorist propaganda materlal.

14
1
.Q

11, UK: British police arrested three suspects during

operations in the London area The suspects were alleged to
.have been seeking to carry out an Imminent ISIL-Insplred
attack to behead a member of the public.

2014 11, UK: Four men appeared in court on charges of plotting

to murder police officers or soldiers in London in the name 01:
ISIL
2014 11, Franca A charity accused of being a front for financing

terrOr1sm in Syria was shut down and two of its leaders charged with financing terrorism,
2014 10, Belgium: Prosecutors laid terrorism charges against 46
members of Sharla4Belgium, a group implicated in radicalization
as well as recruitment of foreign fighters, tundraising, and
facilitation efforts.

.1.

TOP SECRET

TA 15/48-E

ASIA
Sustained counter-terrorism pressure and the growing Influence of ISIL
PaklstanlAfghanlstan
Impact of Pakistans counter-terrorism
operations on AQ activities
24. Counter-terrorism pressure on AQ in
Pakistan Increased in Summer 2014 with
the launch of a large-scale military
ground offensive hi North Waziristan
Agency (NWA).

New AQ affiliate - AQIS

27. In September 2014. AC publicly announced the
formation of a new affiliate organization, Al Qaida In
the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). ACtS was formed
from the amalgamation of a number of smaller
extremist groups In Pakistan

TA 15148-E

TOP SECRET

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan

Splitting along AQ and ISIL lines

29. In the first 10 months of 2014, almost 4,500 indivIduals were killed by terrorist attacks that occurred across
Pakistan. During 2014, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (U) was the moat active terrorist group conducting, attacks in
Pakistan with attacks mostly aimed at Pakistani interests. In 2014, UP conducted several high profile attacks,
notably:

a. In June 2014, TTP militants attacked a terminal at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi;
b. In early November 2014, a suicide bomber attacked a check post, at the Wagah international border
crossing (India-Pakistan) in Punjab; this attack was claimed by TTP splinter group .Jamaat uI-Ahrar (,JuA);
c.

In December 2014, sIx TIP terrorists attacked a military-run school (Army Public School and Degree
College) in Peshawar. There were over 140 casualtIes.

Defections from TIP and the Influence of ISIL

31. The UP, an umbrella group of several loosely
allied tribal and regional factions,

TIP leader MulIsh Fazlullah

32. In August 2014, a TIP faction announced the

formation of a break-away group Jamaat ul-Ahrar
(JuA), which aims to establish an Islamic caliphate In
the Indian subcontInent,
Open source reporting
from October 2014, indicated that one of TTPa central
spokesmen and five TIP leaders had also pledged
allegiance to ISIL. In 2015,

Source: GujfNews

10

is
St

-E

Southeast Asia

-is

Lt!

fist conflict on the Bangladesh-,

-M Rohk)

Rohingya refugee ca
eastern borders of

S_f
___

cs

:4

12
.1

FA 4ciA5

TOPSECRET

MIDDLE EAST
ISIL emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
.
The rise of ISIL in 12 months
44. The expulsion of ISIL from AQ in early 2014 followed a protracted conflIct between extremist groups d et the
stage foi the mid 2014 declaration of the Caliphate in Syria and Iraq. ISILs declaration established a more violent
alternative to the global extremist movement represented by AQ. By the beginning ot,2015,ISII. became the
preeminent terrorist group, in direct competition with AG. ISIL has successfully expadedlntoNqrt) Africa, the
Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Indonesia by accepting the oaths of aIleLance of several
terrorist groups in these regions.

-ThenseoflSlLin2Ol4
1January

ISIL gaIns control of Reqqah

February

AQ severs ties with ISIL

June
August

ISIL gains control of Mosul

Al-Baghdadl declares the Caliphate, focuses on clear, build and govern strategy...;..
U S begins air strikes against ISIL ISIL murders U S citizen James Foley

October

ISIL starts Kobani campaign

October

ISIL starts gaining support from groups In Africa and the Levont

December

ISIL Inspired extremists plan/execute attacks In Canada, the U.S. and Europe

December

Foreign fighters continue to join in large numbers

July

Extremist travelers and foreign fighters

46. During 2014, the number of foreign fighters entering Syria and Iraq to estimated 19,000 by December, most
joining ISIL, especially after the July 2014 declaration of the Islamic State,

13

4LSECRET
T

44

44,

4,

4,

M-

$ sijWw

4*%%4,,

4,

..-

;41

-C

4-,
f
k
8

4
4&,11
*

,j

4,

Al Qalda In the Arabian Peninsula

2*
-4

4,

15

4,

-I

-.

,j

TA15/48-E

TOP SECRET$.

.VV
VVVVVVVVVV
V

4,
,r.

Lebanon
Hlzballah
62, Hlzballah remains highly supportive of the Assad regime in
Syria. In June 2014, Hlallah began fighting along the
Lebanese border with extremists vAio had crossed from Syria
Into Lebanon.
ISIL moved into northern
Lebanon.

lED events In Lebanon

November 2014

Source

16

jj

j4Vg

of 25

TOP SECRET
TA 15148-E

AFRICA
Terrorist groups adapting to ISILs challenge to AQs leadership
66. In 2014, In addition to ongoing threats from AQ-affihiated groups uch sJ Shabaab(AS)in Somalia and
Kenya; AQ in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and its offshoot, the Al-Murabitoun. battalion, both aqtiv In the Maghreb
and Sahel regions, there was a rise in violence in Nigeria from Boko Haram.(8H), in Egypt from AM, tn Tunisia
from an AQIM battalion and Ansar al Shana in Tunisia (AAS-T) and in Ubys from varoass MS factions These
groups have at times helped each other by exchanging weapons, tactical knowledge, media expeiliac, and fighters.
Most African theatres of violent jihad were characterized by political upheaval, rela elylowJevel of 9ovemment
presence, and a general absence of public security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat IhAftlOa,aS further
aggravated by the growing Influence of the ISIL.
-

Somalia Al Shabaabs iesurgence

-

67. AS remained the most prominent terrorist threat In East Africa In 2014. After its military setbacks and losses of
territory at the hands of Ethiopian and AMISOM forces, AS made a strong comeback with an urban terrorism
campaign, carrying out attacks in Somalia and Kenya. The group maintains a core of trained, devoted fighters in
Somalia who regularly attack the Somali government and its international partners.

68. AS planned and carried out the May 2014 attack on Ia ChaumireRestaurant in Djibouti, which killed 3 people
and injured 11 more. The attack was intended to target Westerners and put pressure on governments to withdraw
military forces from Somalia.

69. AS remains a threat but also faces considerable challenges. Over the last few years, several key AS figures
have been killed Including AS Emir Bilal Abmed Abdi Godane in September 2014.

The Sahel AQ In the Islamic Maghrebs continued menace

70. In 2014, despite the ongoing UN Multidimensional integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) the
threat from AQ In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) remains. AQIM has regained large parts of its former safe haven In
the north
Since May
2014, there have been over 28 attacks, including from improvised explosive devices (IEDS) and rocket attacks, on
UN personnel. In October, In the deadliest attack yet on UN troops In Mali, nine Nigerlen UN peacekeepers were
killed by the MUJAO.

17

k
a
increasing

profile
-

state contfr,ues to cmmb

Libya,, Coast and Oil lntras(rucnjm

ia

Top SECRET

TA 1 5148-E

76. In 2014, Libya continued to attract extremists

Tunisia

A continued terrorist threat In the Birthplace of the Arab Spring

Tb. J.b.J ech Chambi Mountain I
[ Range
in Tunisia (red and orange
zones), where AQIM Uqbah bin
Nafi Battalion Is predomInantly
located.

Egypt Worsening Security Envnonrnent

80.
Egypts most capable terrorist
group, Ansar Bayt aI-Maqdis (ABM, aka Ansar Jerusalem), carried out a
number of successful attacks in the Sinai and mainland Egypt. These
included the bombing of Cairo police headquarters and a MANPAD

19

TOP SECRETI

TA 15148 E

V.

HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS

This document is the property of the integrated TerroriSm. Asseesment Centre (ITAC), Prepared by ITAC, it
Is derived from various sources with Informatiofleft tiv.ofth ate of publication. Itis provided to your
agency/department in confidence and may be further disseminated by your agency/department. those with
appropriate security clearances and appropriate sec
st.is to retain the Information. It must not be
reclassified or reused In any way, in whole or In p.rt, NithoutlhecOnsent of the originator.
Any feedback should be directed via Mandrake email to:
Internal Users:
.
External Users:
:- -..
-.
This document constitutes a record which may.besubJecttomdatory exemption under the Access to
Information Act or the Privacy Act The lnformatln or inteIJigencemay also be protected by the provisions of
the Canada Evidence Act The information or Intelligence .mst not be disclosed or used as evidence without
prior consultation wjJ ITAC.
.

V.-

r(;.

21