Professional Documents
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THE HINDU
DIPLOMATIC LICENCE
PERSPECTIVE
SUHASINI HAIDAR
NISSIM MANNATHUKKAREN
In October 2006, India supported Shashi Tharoors bid to become United Nations Secretary General. The battle for the post
was closely fought, but what hurt India the most was not losing
but the fact that its candidate, who is now a Congress MP, was
pitted against two other South Asian leaders Ashraf Ghani,
now the President of Afghanistan, and Jayantha Dhanapala, Sri
Lankan UN diplomat neither of whom bowed out in Indias favour. Worse,
the Sri Lankan candidate actually endorsed South Koreas Ban Ki-moon, underlining Indias regional isolation on the issue.
Ten years later, the prize is much bigger as India hopes to push for a place in
the UN Security Council, in the UNs 70th year. The government has also
made considerable efforts to build international consensus around the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism, which it would like to see
progress this year.
As last weeks mega international conference in Delhi, the Raisina Dialogue, showed, the lesson in 2016 remains the same as the one from 2006: it is
not possible for India to be a world leader or an Asian leader without first being a South Asian leader. Whats more, it is important for India to work on
uniting, connecting, and sharing its prosperity with its neighbours before
seeking the same from outside. If you cannot integrate with your region, you
cannot integrate with other regions, said former Foreign Secretary Shyam
Saran in a keynote session at the conference.
Participants from the region were more specific. The delegate from Nepal
said that border connectivity, despite Indias promises, remains poor. Whats more, It is not possible for
border infrastructure for Indias more
peaceable neighbours to the north and east India to be a world
Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myan- leader or an Asian
mar is much less developed than for
countries to its west. Adding to that, no In- leader without
dian centre of excellence or modern city first being a South
has been developed close to Indias northern borders or can be accessed easily by its Asian leader
neighbours, and Indias poorest, least developed States border these four countries. As a result, SAARC road and rail
connectivity requires immediate attention, and the still-not-developed Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal corridor compares unfavourably to the 38,400km ASEAN Highway Network or the Singapore-Kunming Rail Link, while
Chinas first-ever cargo train to Tehran heralds the way for a China-Afghanistan-Iran rail and road link as well.
As the nation went into paroxysms of rage over the alleged eulogisation of Afzal
Guru,
an
anniversary
passed by, as always, quietly.
On February 18, 1983, 2,191
Muslims, mainly women,
children and the old, were hacked to death
with machetes and daggers in Nellie, Assam. For a massacre of genocidal proportions, not a single person has been
brought to book in 33 years. Nellie does
not even exist in the public memory. The
tragic irony is that a nation threatened by
anti-national slogans in not threatened by
actual pogroms, whether it is Nellie, Delhi
1984, or Gujarat 2002.
The majoritarian logic is based on the
premise that the majority religious community can commit any act of mass violence, but that will not be anti-national.
What is anti-national is only minority violence. This logic was clearly evident in the
response to the Malda riot in January,
something that acquires criticalness with
the looming West Bengal elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) called
the riot communal: Communalism is on
the rampage in Malda, said its spokesperson. For a party that rose in the 1980s
mainly through engineering a tectonic
shift to politics based on religious polarisation, that is an extraordinary feat of duplicity. All the more so, considering the
costs of such a shift have hardly been benign: the tragic loss of lives and property
in communal riots from Babri Masjid to
Muzaffarnagar.
Creation of Punjabi
State favoured
After three hours deliberation
this afternoon [March 9, New
Delhi], the Congress Working
Committee decided to
recommend to the Government of
India to carve out a new State with
Punjabi as the State language from
the present Punjab State. It is
learnt that the pros and cons of
conceding the demand for a
Punjabi Suba was discussed by the
Committee at considerable length.
The working committee
resolution said, Out of the
existing State of Punjab, a State
| 11
Minority communalism can never be compared with majority communalism, for the
former is ghettoised and mainly feeds upon its own people. Picture shows victims of
the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar in 2013. PHOTO: RAJEEV BHATT
communal riots, Yale University researchers assert that riots produce ethnic polarisation that benefits ethno-religious parties at the expense of the
Congress and the BJS [Bharatiya Jana
Sangh]/BJP saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in their vote share following a riot
in the year prior to an election. The BJP
resorted to the time-tested method of attempting a religious polarisation in Bihar
elections, and already there are indications that Malda will be the BJP focus in
Bengal, which has no history of communal violence.
Unlike the narrative on Twitter and television, the print media substantially covered the Malda violence. It overwhelmingly concluded that rather than the
radicalised sections of Muslims now suddenly deciding to wipe out the Hindu minority, what emerges is a complex web of
criminal-politician nexus having a substantive role in engineering violence in a
crowd of Muslims.
The majoritarian narrative
But this complexity does not fit well
with the dominant narrative of scaremongering and Islamophobia. Witness the
discourse of the Islamic State enveloping
the nation rapidly, or the pre-emptive
framing of Umar Khalid as an Islamist terrorist in the Jawaharlal Nehru University
Case. If not Muslim-perpetrated riots,
Muslim-perpetrated terror acts will destroy India.
This narrative sadly ignores that the
death toll in the Maoist, and the separa-
On March 2,
speaking at a
conference in
New Delhi, the
head of United
States Pacific
Command issued a clarion call for more
robust U.S.-India cooperation in the AsiaPacific. Admiral Harry Harris observed
that India is beginning to exert its leadership in the region, which he referred to as
the Indo-Asia-Pacific. His appeal for
partnership was strikingly direct. We are
ready for you, he declared. We need you.
Lets be ambitious together.
Of particular note was Admiral Harriss
pitch for greater cooperation between the
U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. The U.S.Japan-India trilateral has gained momentum in recent years, with regular meetings
and a variety of collective exercises. Conversely, the four-way arrangement has
made much less progress and has largely
been limited to some meetings and naval
exercises several years back.
This quadrilateral relationship is typically depicted in defence terms. It is undoubtedly a national security-based arrangement. It is therefore a sensitive
matter, particularly given the message it
sends to Beijing. This helps explain why
Indian officials have not reacted warmly to
Admiral Harriss proposal.
However, something significant gets
lost amid all this loud talk of national security and China concerns: a closer relationship between these four key democracies
can also boost Indias tenuous energy security in a big way.
Growing energy appetite
Indias yawning energy needs are wellknown. Economists say that for Indian economic growth to return to double digits,
energy supplies must increase by three to
four times over the next few decades. Deficits, however, are immense including,
for electricity alone, peak demand deficits
of 25 per cent in some southern States.
This helps explain Indias addiction to
overseas energy. Eighty per cent of its oil is
imported, as is about 20 per cent of its coal
though in recent years, coal imports
Economists say that for Indian economic growth to return to double digits, energy
supplies must increase by three to four times over the next few decades. Picture
shows a coal mine in Meghalaya. PHOTO: AFP
ter position New Delhi to negotiate workable LNG agreements with Canberra.
Additionally, India could leverage a
closer relationship with Australia to engage more deeply with the latters neighbour, Indonesia, which provides India
more than 60 per cent of its current coal
imports. This would help advance New
Delhis Act East policy. Cultivating deeper energy relationships with these two relatively close-by Southeast Asian countries
an objective that the quadrilateral relationship can help bring about would
ease the burden on Indias naval forces of
protecting energy assets in areas more farflung than Southeast Asia.
Additionally, Indonesia and Australia
despite their proximity to the South China
Sea and their susceptibility to Islamist
militancy, including attacks by the Islamic
State are far more stable than West Asia,
which would ease concerns about the security of Indian energy assets and imports
originating in these two countries.
More broadly, for India, the quadrilateral relationship could enhance energy engagement with the U.S., Japan, and Australia across the board. These three countries
have signed on to the India-led International Solar Alliance. Japan and India are
offtakers for U.S. LNG projects. And all
four countries have an interest in energy
infrastructure development.
In recent years, a major roadblock to the
quadrilateral relationship was Australia,
which withdrew from the arrangement in
2013, citing concerns about Chinas reaction. Today, however, Canberra has a different government and has expressed support for resurrecting it. For New Delhi,
reviving the quadrilateral relationship
may not make much sense from a national
security perspective. However, viewed
through the lens of energy security, it arguably makes very good sense.
(Michael Kugelman is the Senior
Associate for South Asia at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars in Washington, D.C.
Raymond Vickery is a Global Fellow at
the Woodrow Wilson Center; a senior
adviser at Albright Stonebridge Group;
of counsel at Hogan Lovells; and a
former U.S. Assistant Secretary of
Commerce.)
VJ-VJ