EE 3150, Probability for Electrical and Computer Engineering, Fall 2015

Midterm 1, Oct. 2

Overview
The exam consists of three problems for 100 points. The points for
each part of each problem are given in the brackets - you should spend
your 50 minutes accordingly
Testmanship
Full credit will be given only to fully justified answers.
Giving the steps along the way to the answer will not only earn full
credit but also maximize the partial credit should you stumble or get
stuck. If you get stuck, attempt to neatly define your approach to the
problem and why you are stuck.
If part of a problem depends on a previous part that you are unable to
solve, explain the methods for doing the current part, and if possible,
give the answer in terms of the quantities of the previous part that
you are unable to obtain.
Start each problem on a new page. Not only will this facilitate grading, but also make it easier for you to jump back and forth between
problems.
If you get to the end of the problem and realize that your answer must
be wrong, be sure to write this must be wrong because ... so that I
will know you recognized such a fact.
Academic dishonesty will be dealt harshly - the minimum penalty
will be an F for the course.

1. Roll a fair six-sided die, and answer the following questions:

(a) (15 pts) Probability of Roll 4 or higher.
(b) (15 pts) Probability of Roll the square of an integer.
2. Consider an experiment of testing two chips successively, with its universal set defined as S = {aa, rr, ar, ra}, where r and a represent rejection and acceptance of the testing of a chip, respectively.
Let X1 and X2 denote the outcomes of the first and second testing, respectively, with Xj {a, r}, for j = 1, 2. Assume P[X1 =
r, X2 = r] = P[X1 = r, X2 = a] = P[X1 = a, X2 = r] = 0.01, and
P[X1 = a, X2 = a] = 0.97. Answer the following questions:
(a) ( 20 pts) Probability P (X1 = a) and P (X2 = r).
(b) (15 pts) Conditional probability P (X2 = r|X1 = a).
3. A company has three machine B1 , B2 and B3 making chips. Denote

an event A={chip is acceptable}, and A={chip

is NOT acceptable}.
Assume we are given the following conditional probabilities: P[A|B1 ] =
P[A|B3 ] = 0.5, P[A|B2 ] = 0.9, and the number of chips Ni produced
by machine Bi are given as N1 = 2000, N2 = 3000, and N3 = 5000,
respectively. Answer the following questions:
(a) (20 pts) If we randomly pick up a chip from a bin in which there
are Ni chips from each machine as given above, for i {1, 2, 3},
what is the likelihood this chip is from the machine B1 ? What
is the marginal probability that a randomly selected chip wont
pass the test?
(b) (15 pts) Given that a chip which is randomly selected from the
same bin as in question a) has not passed the test, what is the
probability that it was produced by machine B1 ?