Transparency 1-1

The Field of Statistics

As a field of study, statistics is set of procedures for gathering,
measuring, classifying coding, computing, analyzing, and summarizing
systematically acquired numerical information

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Scientific applications of statistics: A tool for testing scientillc

theo ries

Practical applications of statistics: Used by marketing advertisers,

government policy makers, public health officials, insurance
underwriters, educators, survey firms, stock investors and
analysts, and odds makers.

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The Statistical Imagination

An appreciation of how usual or unusual an eveng circumstance, or
behavior is in relation to a larger set of similar events, and an
appreciation of an event's causes and consequences

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It

is a balanced way of observing the world

It involves the ability to think through a problem and maintain a

sense of proportion when weighing evidence aga-lnst preconceived

notions

It helps us to understand that most events are predictable

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How the Statistical Imagination Is Linked

to the Sociological Imagination
Social reality is normative: interpretation depends on the plece'
time, and culture in which it is observed,
Social norm: a shared idea of the behayior that is appropriate
inappropriate in a given situation in a given culture.

or

Statistical norm: an average rate of occurrence of a phenomenon

(often a measurement of a social norm).
Social values: shared ideas among the members of a society about
the way things ought to be.

Statistical ideal: a socially desired rate of occurrence of a

phenomenon (often reflects social values).

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Tools for Proportional Thinking

Data:

Statistical error:

Systematically acquired information that is

organized following the procedures of science
and statistics

Known degrees of imprecision in the procedures

used to gather and process information

Two Purposes of Statistics

Descriptive statistics: Used to tell us how many observations were
recorded and how frequently each score or
category of observations occurred in the data
Inferential statistics: Used to show cause and effect relationships and
to test hypotheses and scientific theories

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WIIAT IS SCIENCE?

Science is a systematic method ofexplainiog empirical phenomena

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Empirical means observable and measurable

Phenomena are facts, happenstances, events,
circumstances

or

Purpose of Science
The purpose ofscientific investigation is to explain things. These
explanations take the form of theory:
Scientific theory: A set of interrelated, logically organized statements
that explain a phenomenon ofspecial interest, and that
have been corroborated through observation and
analysis

The Limitations of Science

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a
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Restricted to examining empirical phenomena

Many sound, factuatly based scientific arguments lack political or

taxpayer suPPort
Ethical dilemrnas often arise from scientilic research and create
resistance to its aPPlication

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DATA AND VARIABLES

Yariables:

Measurable phenomena that vary or change over

time, or that differ from place to place or from
individual to individual

Study sutrjects: The people or objects under scientific observation

Variatiotr:

How much the measurements ofa variable differ

among study subjects

Constants: Characteristics of study subjects that do not vary

A Hypothesis

"

A prediction about the relationship between two variables, asserting that

changes in lh metsure of an independent variable will correspond to
changes in the measure of a dependent variable.

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Independent and Dependent Variables

Dependent

variable:

The variable whose variation we wish to explain

Independent variables: The predictor variables that are related to, or

predict variation in, the dependent variable

Relationships Btween Independent and Dependent Variables

Independent
Cause

Variable

Dependent Variable

.-r

Effect

-)
--)
Stimulus
Intervention (action taken) -r
Correlation: change in
-)

Associated change in another

one variable

variable

Predictor

Outcome
Response

Result

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THE RESEARCH PROCESS

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Involves organizing ideas into a theory, making empirical

predictions that support the theory, and then gathering data
to test these predictions

Cumulative process
knowledge

a continual process of accumulation

Eight steps:
1. Definelstate the issue of focus

2. Review the past researchlliterature

3. Develop the hYPothesis(es)

4. Ghoose the method*

5. Gollectthe data*
6. TesUAnalYze
7.

WriteudPublish resulb

8. J ustifi cationlfalsifi cation

'

= may be reYersed

of

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Mathematical Proportions
Division problems that weigh a part (the numerator) against a whole (the
denominator).

Mathematical proportions are a way to quantify:

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o

Proportional thinking' placing an observation into a larger context

things objectively, make fair
judgements about events and behavior, and give the correct
amount of attention to things that really matter

A sense of proportion, to

see

Calculating Proportions and Percentages

Start with a fraction:
# in a category
# in total group

Divide the fraction to obtain a proportion (in decimal form). The

quotient will always have values between 0 and 1:
p [oftotal group in a categoryl =

#inacategory
#

= quotient

in total group

For ease of interpretation, transform the proportion into a percentage,

which means "per hundred." Multiply the proportion by 100. The
quotient will always have values between O"/" and 100"/"t
70

[oftotal group ir

a categoryl

-p

(100)

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Simple Rules for Transforming Fractions,

Proportions, and Percentages

To change a fraction into a proportion:

Divide the numerator by the denominator to obtain the
"decimalized" quotient

To change a proportion into a percentage:

Multiply the proportion by
two places to the right)

100 (simply move the decimal point

To transform a percentage into a proportion:

Divide the percentage by 100 (simply move the decimal point two
places to the left and drop the percentage symbol)

To express a proportion as a fraction:

Observe the decimal places, and express the fraction accordingly.
For example, .378 is 378 thousandths:
.37s

(See page 567

178
1,000

for a review of decimal place locations.)

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Rates
A rate is the frequency of occurrence of a phenomenon per

a specified,

useful "base" number of subiects in a population

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Rates provide another method of standardizing, where the

"population at risk" is clearly identilied

The choice ofa base number depends on the phenomenon being

measured. If calculated for a human population, select a base
number that results in a rate expressed with whole persons

Calculating Rates
Rate ofocclrence = (p) (a useful bese number)

For example, in a metropolitan county where there were 17'431

live births in a recnt year, 182 infants died before their first
birthday:
rnfant mortatity rate

ofdeath$

# oflive

= 182 (r,ooo)

births

17,431

= .0104 (1,000) = 10.4 deaths per 1,000 live births