IASbaba's Daily Economic Survey Current Affairs - 27th February, 2016 - IASbaba

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IASbabas Daily Current Affairs 27th February, 2016
ECONOMICS
2/18
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TOPIC: General Studies 3

Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of
resources, growth, development and employment.
Government Budgeting.
NOTE: This article is compilation of information from 5 different National

Newspapers
Economic Survey 2015-16: A snapshot

Background:
Painting an optimistic picture of the economy despite the grim prospects for
global growth, this years Economic Survey sees India getting on to the 8-10
per cent GDP growth trajectory over the next few years.
To realise this potential Centre needs to address, three critical issues the
transition from socialism to marketism, which the Indian economy
struggles with; expand investment in people (health and education); and
sharpen the focus on agriculture.
India recording GDP growth in excess of 7 per cent for the third straight year
in a row in 2016-17.India grew 7.2 per cent in 2014-15 and 7.6 per cent
(advance estimate) in 2015-16.
There is still the promise of India due to accelerated structural reforms,
competitive federalism (among) States and good economics becoming
good politics all over India
STATE OF THE ECONOMY
FY17 GDP expected to be in the range of 7-7.75%. Current years at 7.6%
Stick to scal consolidation path But need to revisit medium-term scal
policy framework
Farm prices and trade policies need to account that India is a big market for
the world
Twin balance sheet problem banking stress and that of the corporate
sector hampering economy
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FISCAL DEFICIT
2016-17 expected to be challenging from scal point of view; time is right
for a review of medium-term scal framework
2015-16 scal decit, seen at 3.9 per cent of GDP, seems achievable
Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5 per cent of GDP scal
decit target
PUBLIC FINANCE
Remove tax incentives for small savings, as mostly the rich benet from
them
Impose tax on gold since it is hoarded by the rich
Rs 1-lakh-crore subsidy going to the rich from the government
Fast-growth years for GDP have led to larger inequality in India; need for
measures like wider property tax in the context of smart cities
Only four per cent of Indians pay income tax; this has to rise to about 23
per cent
PRICES & MONETARY MANAGEMENT

Benets of low global oil prices transient
El Nio effect on agriculture to continue for some more time
Crop-wise yields in India compared to the world are low for rice, wheat and
pulses
Need to shift to demand-driven agri-extension services
Food not the only reason for low transmission of rate cuts by RBI
INFLATION
CPI ination seen around 4.5 to 5% in 2016/17
Low ination has taken hold, condence in price stability has improved
Expect RBI to meet 5 percent ination target by March 2017
Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen inationary
expectations
Low ination has taken hold, condence in price stability has improved
Slack in the private sector labor market and capacity underutilization in
industry mean that higher public sector wages would not be transmitted
across the rest of the economy
Continuing moderation in oil prices, a return to normal monsoons, and
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persistent below-potential output also led to the Surveys conclusion that

consumer price ination would be between 4.5 and ve per cent in 2016-17,
well within the RBIs target.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

2016/17 current account decit seen around 1-1.5% of GDP
CURRENCY
Rupees value must be fair, avoiding strengthening; fair value can be
achieved through monetary relaxation
India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in
wake of a similar adjustment in China
Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital inows are weak
TAXES
Proposes widening tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than
20%
Tax revenue expected to be higher than budgeted levels in FY15/16
Easiest way to widen the tax base would be not to raise exemption
thresholds
Favors review and phasing out of tax exemptions
BANKING & CORPORATE SECTOR
Estimated capital requirement for banks likely around Rs 1.8 trillion by
2018/19
Corporate, bank balance sheets remain stretched, affecting prospects for
reviving private investments
Underlying stressed assets in corporate sector must be sold or rehabilitated
Govt could sell off certain non nancial companies to infuse capital in staterun banks
Govt proposes to make available 700 bln rupees via budgetary allocations
during current, succeeding years in banks
Banks gross non-performing advances (GNPA) as a proportion of gross
advances increased to 5.1 per cent between March and September 2015,
from 4.6 per cent.
Restructured standard advances as a proportion of gross advances declined
to 6.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent in the period, while the stressed advances to
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total gross advances ratio increased to 11.3 from 11.1.

PSBs had the highest level of stressed assets (gross plus restructured) at 14
per cent of the total, followed by private sector banks (PVBs) at 4.6 per cent
and foreign banks (FBs) at 3.4 per cent at end-September 2015.
Net non-performing advances (NNPA) as a proportion of total net advances
for all scheduled commercial banks increased to 2.8 per cent from March to
September 2015, from 2.5 per cent.
The contribution of ve sub-sectors mining, iron and steel, textiles,
infrastructure and aviation to the total of stressed advances was 53 per
cent.
Stressed advances in the aviation sector increased to 61 per cent in June
2015 from 58.9 per cent in March. That of the infrastructure sector increased
to 24 per cent, from 22.9 per cent.
The performance of these sectors and their impact on the asset quality of
banks continue to be a cause for concern.
Trade:
The Survey also had particularly pointed recommendations about the
direction of Indias trade policy, saying introspection is overdue on issues
including its continued support to farmers that are controversial at the World
Trade Organization.
The Survey concludes India should resist calls to seek recourse in
protectionist measures, especially in relation to items that could undermine
the competitiveness of downstream rms.
The Centre has recently imposed price controls on the import of steel, which
auto rms have protested.
Reforms inclined towards rich: Bounties for the Well-off
The survey makes a case for unpopular reforms, such as bringing
agricultural incomes in the tax net, rationalisation of fertiliser subsidies
estimated at Rs. 75,000 crore (excluding arrears) and the withdrawal of tax
benets which benet mainly the rich.
Restricting the cooking gas subsidy to 10 cylinders from 12 at present,
raising the levels of property tax and desisting from raising the income tax
threshold. This needs to be done while taxes and duties on domestic and
commercial LPG users are aligned
Venturing into the politically sensitive issue of fertilizer subsidy, whose
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beneciaries are ostensibly poor farmers, survey points to three forms of

leakages and lacunae: black marketeering, inability of small farmers to
derive full benets, and inefciency of fertilizer manufacture.
The report identied seven areas small savings schemes, kerosene,
railways, electricity, LPG, gold and aviation turbine fuel where the
benets of subsidies accrue largely to the well-off, dened as the top 70 per
cent of the population based on expenditure distribution as per National
Sample Survey data.
Reducing subsidies in these areas would do good not only from a scal and
welfare perspective, but also from a political economy welfare perspective,
and lend credibility to other market-oriented reforms
Strengthening the state by improving scal relations between the rich and
the poor is one of the two main messages of the Budget,
Challenges ahead:
Raising pay for government employees as per 7th pay commission
Bail out banks without increasing borrowing.
Challenge of creating good jobs is proving difcult
Too many regulations have harmed job creation worker-centric rule
needed
Competitive federalism is needed to reduce bottlenecks in clearances
Transparency and simplicity needed in power rates
Easier power supply to encourage Make in India
Disappointments:
Failure to pass a goods and services tax, underperformance on
disinvestment and privatization,
Incomplete rationalization of subsidies
Stressed balance sheets of banks and private companies.
Need of the hour:
Improved investments in education and health, where India fares the worst
among BRICS nations and adequate attention to agriculture could realise
the potential.
In the wake of four seasons of weak rainfall and consequent adversity,
agriculture has served a wake-up call, demanding attention from policy
makers.
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In the unnished agenda, the Goods and Services Tax, strategic

disinvestment, de-stressing of the balance sheet of both banks and private
companies, and the rationalisation of subsidies.
Stretched corporate and bank balance sheets are affecting prospects for
reviving private investments, and so the underlying stressed assets must be
sold or rehabilitated.
Aggressive disinvestment and subsidy reforms would have released
resources for much-needed public capital expenditures to counter weak
external demand and crowd-in private investments.
The Survey examines the problem of exit Chakravyuh Challenge of Economy:

The Survey has likened the Indian economy in the 21st century to the
Chakravyuh legend of Mahabharata the ability to enter but not exit
cautioning the country is facing adverse consequences due to the lack of a
way out for failed ventures
Just as a market economy requires unrestricted entry of new rms, new
ideas and new technologies, it also requires an exit route so that resources
are forced or enticed away from inefcient and unsustainable uses
Stressed corporate and bank balance sheets were partly because it was
difcult for capital to exit enterprises or investments that had turned
unprotable.
As a consequence, India was littered with rms that were too small and
unproductive, taking up scarce resources more efciently allocated
elsewhere.
In addition to the proposed bankruptcy law, the Survey argues for
independent sector regulators and ending resistance to privatization by
sharing the resources freed up with affected employees.
The underlying stressed assets in the corporate sector must be sold or
rehabilitated. Future incentives for the private sector must be set right, to
avoid a repetition.
Decanalising urea imports:
According to the Survey, this would increase the number of importers, allow
greater freedom in import decision and allow supply to respond exibly and
quickly to changes in demand.
The Survey also recommends bringing urea under the nutrient-based
subsidy programme, which would allow domestic producers to continue
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receiving xed subsidies based on the nutritional content of their fertilizer.

Spreading the JAM
The Survey also recommends expanding the coverage for JAM (Jan Dhan
Aadhaar Mobile) as in the case of the Direct Benet Transfer scheme for
LPG, since the Centre controls the fertilizer supply chain.
However, the Survey points out that targeting the poor are difcult at the
best of times. It therefore suggested a cap on the number of subsidized
bags that each household could purchase, with biometric authentication at
the point of sale.
What is the difference between 2014-15 and 2016-17 economic survey?
The 2014-15 Economic Survey had introduced the JAM acronym
standing for Jan-Dhan, Aadhaar and mobiles to better target welfare
spending. this years Survey has given importance towards Spreading JAM
Across the Economy
This years Survey takes the idea further, saying that direct benet transfers
(DBT) in household liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders had worked in
reducing leakage and arguing that because of close central control on
spending the fertiliser subsidy should be the next target for such transfers,
and that the fertilizer sector was overdue for reform.
The 2015-16 survey, by contrast, emphasizes the need for a recalibration of
expectations and making conditional assessments of the economys
performance over the coming year. The main reason for this is an unusually
challenging and weak external environment.
But external factors apart, there is also an admission of internal political
failure to push reforms: Approval for the game-changing GST bills has
proved elusive so far; the disinvestment programme fell short of targets,
including that of achieving strategic sales; and the next stage of subsidy
rationalization is a work-in-progress.
Way ahead
A clear strategy on disinvestment extending to sale of majority government
equity and Commitment to credible scal consolidation is what investors
will primarily look for.
But beyond the budget, the governments efforts to get at least two
important legislation those relating to the GST and a comprehensive
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bankruptcy code (enabling businesses to shut as easily as to start)

through Parliament would also matter. And that requires creating the right
political environment, for which the responsibility lies more with the party in
power.
Indias macro economy is robust and it is likely to be the fastest growing
major economy in the world in 2016. For an economy where exports have
declined due to weak global demand and private investment remains weak,
Indias economy is performing remarkably well
The Survey said that the governments initiatives including the new
bankruptcy law, rehabilitation of stalled projects, proposed changes to the
Prevention of Corruption Act as well as the expansion of the direct benet
scheme holds the promise of providing a signicant boost to long-run
efciency and growth.
The Survey reckons that the 3.9 per cent scal decit target for 2015-16 is
achievable. It notes that the time is ripe for a review of the medium-term
scal framework.
The Survey stops short of recommending whether or not the government
should deviate from its set scal goals. It says there are very good
arguments for a strategy of aggressive scal consolidation as well as a
strategy of moderate consolidation.
Fiscal consolidation:
While making arguments both for and against the current path of scal
consolidation, the Survey seemed to argue overall for a less stringent scal
consolidation path
The Survey concludes that even a gradual recovery of nominal growth
which, thanks to deationary pressure has been lower than expected, driving
the debt-to-GDP ratio upward would be sufcient in any case to deal with
the debt problem it had cited as the main reason for sticking to the current
scal consolidation path.
In one of its more specic recommendations, the Survey suggested higher
property taxes, which it said would put sand in the wheels of property
speculation. Smart cities require smart public nance, the Survey noted, and
sound property taxation is vital to Indias urban future.
Connecting the dots :

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Strengthening the state by improving scal relations between the rich and
the poor is one of the two main messages of the Budget, Comment.
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Jointhediscussion
DD 10hoursago
Babaji,superarticle.Ihavenotreadityetbuthopetoreaditsoon.Thiswillhelpme
certainlyduringrevision.
Dhanyavaad:)
Reply Share
Chandler 10daysago
Sirs..suchagreatjob..thankumyriadly...
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3/10/2016
Reply Share
J@LS@ 10daysago
ThanksBABA!!!
Reply Share
YaswanthReddy 11daysago
Deservemorethanathxs
Reply Share
Ramesh 12daysago
Babaji..isn'tit20152016surveyinstead20162017..??
Correctme..ifi'mwrong..
Goodsummary..thanks
1
Reply Share
IASbaba
Admin >Ramesh
9daysago
Yes,itisEconomicSurvey201516.
Reply Share
VishalRana>Ramesh 12daysago
RameshitsFY20162017SurveyBecauseitsaforecastfor1617
Reply Share
Abhishek>VishalRana 11daysago
Economicsurveyisnotfuturepprediction,itsthereviewoflastfinancial
year.SoitshouldbeFy201516.
Budgetdothefutureplanning,sobudgetshouldbeof201617.
Hereiseconomicsurveydefenitionfromindianbudget.nic.in
"AflagshipannualdocumentoftheMinistryofFinance,Governmentof
India,EconomicSurvey201516reviewsthedevelopmentsintheIndian
economyovertheprevious12months,summarizestheperformanceon
majordevelopmentprogrammes,andhighlightsthepolicyinitiativesofthe
government......"
1
Reply Share
thevagabond85>VishalRana 12daysago
"Whatisthedifferencebetween201415and201617economicsurvey?"
weclearlyfindthemissinggapof1yearatleast)
However,correctEDinthecontent
"The201516survey,bycontrast,emphasizestheneedfor...."
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14/18
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manojgupta 12daysago
Thankyouformakingourprepeasierthanever.
Reply Share
Abhishek 12daysago
Babaji,ihvsentyoumypaymentdetailstodaymorning.pleaseprovidemeloginandid
asap.Itshightime,hopeyoucanunderstand.
Alsopleaseallowustocreateourownloginidandpasswordandlaterwecanchooseto
upgradebasicmembershiptopaidone.thiswillreducetheproblemofdelay.
Thanks
Reply Share
Abhishek>Abhishek 11daysago
Thankyoubabajiforquickresponse.
Reply Share
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IASbaba's Daily Economic Survey Current Affairs - 27th February, 2016 - IASbaba

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3/10/2016

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IASbabas Daily Current Affairs 27th

IASbabas Daily Current Affairs 27th February, 2016

TOPIC: General Studies 3

NOTE: This article is compilation of information from 5 different National

Economic Survey 2015-16: A snapshot

PRICES & MONETARY MANAGEMENT

persistent below-potential output also led to the Surveys conclusion that

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

total gross advances ratio increased to 11.3 from 11.1.

beneciaries are ostensibly poor farmers, survey points to three forms of

In the unnished agenda, the Goods and Services Tax, strategic

The Survey examines the problem of exit Chakravyuh Challenge of Economy:

receiving xed subsidies based on the nutritional content of their fertilizer.

bankruptcy code (enabling businesses to shut as easily as to start)

Connecting the dots :

Bolivias Morales transformation

An opportunity to reform fertiliser sector- Enabling direct transfer of subsidy will

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