TERM PAPER

Development Issue Assignment

GLOBAL WARMING :
SOME SCIENTIST SCENARIO DEBATES

M. Baiquni
Institute for Rural Technology Development
(Appropriate Technology Group)

Paper Presented in OTO Bappenas

Jakarta, 1992

GLOBAL WARMING

Some Scientist Scenario Debates

By M. Baiquni
From Stockholm to Rio de Janeiro, a road to save
our world. It is just only two decades that the
environmental
issues were change. The environmental
issue in Stockholm conference (1972) was environmental
problems of human settlements, management of natural
resources
and
environmental
pollutions.
Now
the
environmental issues are changing to be sound globally
concerns. One of the main issues in Rio de Janeiro
conference this month (1992) is global warming.
Introduction
Global warming issues is broadly discussed and sharply
debated by many scientists. Some scientists researched many
trends evident that connected many data and cross-checked many
research over the world. Other scientists have simulated some
future scenarios that supported by up to date information from
satellite and computer technology.
Some
entering

climate
a

theorists

period

of

believe

drastic

that

alteration

we
in

are

already

the

earths

climate, trigged by excessive carbon dioxide emission into the

air said Sherwood B. Idaho (dennis Senft, 1990).
Richard A. Houghton and George M. Woodwell supported this
idea that the world is warming. Climatic zone are shifting.
Glaciers

are

melting.

Sea

level

is

rising.

These

are

not

hypothetical events from a science-fiction movie; these change

and others are already taking place, and we expected them to
accelerate
dioxide,

over

methane

the

next

and

other

years
trace

as

the

gases

amounts

of

accumulating

carbon
in

the

atmosphere through human activities increase.

In contrast, two Indonesian professors, Otto Soemarwoto
and Herman Johannes have opinion that global warming is not
proof yet and some scientists still debating this issue.

What is Global Warming?

Naturally, the earth is changing by it self through a long
time historical period since its occurrence. John A. Katili
(1990) stated that our unique planet is a product of synergism
between

the

living

and

non-living

parts.

Hence,

it

is

significant to know that throughout the earth history which

spans about 4.5 billion years the global environment has been
changing. So the earth is a dynamic matter that through its
time can makes changing to get its balance.
The earth has been an atmosphere; a kind of air covered
the

earth

with

moderate

suitable for life.

filter

of

temperature

and

many

gases

that

The atmosphere has function as natural

sunlight

rays

that

warms

the

earth.

path

of

atmosphere is stratosphere that has a layer of ozone. The ozone

protests

the

earth

by

blocking

most

of

the

suns

harmful

ultraviolet light.
According to john R. Justus, et all (1989), some of the
minor gasses in the atmosphere control the earths temperature
by

mechanism

that

operates

much

like

greenhouse.

This

mechanism is incoming sunlight that warms the earth but is

opaque

to

the

infrared

radiation

arising

from

the

earths

surface and the lower atmosphere traps a portion of the heat

that would escape. So, this mechanism makes the earth surface
and lower atmosphere are mild.
The balance of greenhouse mechanism can be disturbed by
living and non-living activities. The

example of non-living

activity as a volcanic activities and the living activity is

human life. The human life activities such as fossil, fuel
combustion, industrial chemical wastes, forest burning, caused
ozone

degradation.

Carbon

dioxide

(CO2),

chlorofluorocarbon

(CFC), and chlorine monoxide (ClO), are blamed as the chief

agents of ozone destructions.

According to Idso, some climate theorist believe that the

carbon dioxide, as the result of fuel burning, will trap

the

suns heat in the atmosphere in much the same way that glass in
a greenhouse hold heat. In this case, the earth get warmer
(Dennis Senft, 1990).
Cause and Impact of Global Warming and Ozone Destruction
Global

warming

is

cause

by

natural

happen

and

human

activities. Natural happen is naturally occurring process of

gasses that influence to atmosphere balance. This naturally
changing can be neutralized by natural process of atmosphere.
Most of environmentalists are concern about human activities as
a cause of global warming.
The

four

of

concentrations

be

most

important

produced

by

greenhouses

harm

gases

activities

are

whose
carbon

dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the family of CFCs. Other

gases

collectively

contribute

to

global

warming

(John

R.

Justus, et all, 1989). It so happens that chlorine and bromine,

in reactive forms, can also catalyze ozone breakdown (Roger
Beckmann, 1991).
Carbon dioxide is the chief cause of global warming, these
gases come from fuel combustion, forest fire, living organism
activities, etc. but CO2 is also essential for plant growth,
being one f the raw materials of photosynthesis. Naturally, it
is

balance

between

(vegetations,
balanced

CO2

humans,

cycling

of

in

atmosphere

animals,
carbon

in

was

the

and

CO2

earth

disturbed

in

biosphere

surface).

when

human

This

burned

large quantities of fossil fuels (coal and oil) and destructed

forest. Simultaneously, increasing human activity increased CO2
in atmosphere that contributed to trap sun heat.
In recent years investigators have recognized that the
atmospheric burden of greenhouse
such

as

methane

(CH4),

gases than carbon dioxide,

nitrous

oxide

(N2O),

and

the

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), I s also growing at increasing rate

(Rhicard A. Hunghton and Goerge M. Woodwell. 1989).
Chlorine naturally occurs from the earth surface, mainly
from

sea

water,

volcanic

eruptions

and

rotting

or

burning

vegetation. According to Roger Beckman (1991), chlorine from

natural supply is now dwarfed by synthetic compounds, such as
the

chlorofluorocarbons

(CFCs).

There

are

human

being

are

currently responsible for 80 % of stratospheres chlorine. As

well

as

CFCs,

common

industrial

chemical

such

as

carbon

tetrachloride and methyl chloroform contribute to the bud up of

unwanted

stratospheric

chlorine.

Other

compounds,

termed

halons, contain ozone-destructive bromine.

Evident of ozone destruction is found a hole of ozone over
Antarctica
previous

in

1985.

studies

Based

had

on

already

Michael
showed

D.

that

Lemonick
ozone

(1992)

level

here

declined 5 % to 8% over the northern hemisphere in the last

decade.

But

latest

data

imply

that

ozone

layer

over

some

regions, including the northern paths of US, Canada, Europe,

and Russia, could be temporarily depleted in the late winter
and clearly spring by as much as 40%. That would be almost as
big as 50 % ozone loss recorded over Antarctica.
Common

industrial

chemical

above

are

dangerous

to

atmosphere balance. Some of those gases caused heat trapping

that

caused

global

warming

and

other

gases

have

destructed

ozone layer in stratosphere. Those phenomenons have dangerous

impacts to the environment. This picture figured some chemicals
of ozone formation and destruction (Source:
1991).

Roger Beckmann,

The impacts of global warming are dangerous for our life.

Mainly,

global

scientists

warming

predicted

can

that

produce
changing

temperature-evaporation-rainfall,

climate
can

melting

change.

cause
ice

Some

increasing
polar,

and

shifting climatic zone.

Climate change can disturb

many ecosystem balances. In

agricultural, many food productions could fail harvesting, some

crop diseases may be will increase. In addition, this changing
has impacts for natural resources, biological diversity, human
health and quality of life.
Flooding and increasing sea level re also the impacts of
climate

change.

According

to

Paul

Handley

(1992),

some

scientists tried to simulate the effects in Southeast Asia. In

the next half century, primary consequence would be increasing

average temperature by 3-4 degree Celsius and sea level by 1

meter. Some prediction impacts of these phenomenons are :
-

Low lying rice, shrimp and fish farms along the coast
would be permanently inundated with sea water.

Heavier rain would improve irrigation, but would also

greatly exacerbate erosion and soil leaching.

Areas prone to flooding would be swamped more frequently

and more severely.

Yields of many crops would fall.

Hydroelectric dams would silt up more rapidly, reducing

their life spans.

Other hazards of global warming in connected with ozone

destruction, are very dangerous for living matter. Destructing
ozone by some gasses of greenhouse effects caused increasing
ultraviolet light, a harmful for human, to penetrate the earth
surface. According to Michael D. Lemonick (1992) the potential
effect of ultra violet light are: developing eyes cataract,
accelerating

various

forms

of

skin

cancer,

reducing

immune

system of the body, reducing crop yields, and affecting to

growth of phytoplankton.

Some scientist Scenario Debates on Global Warming

Global warming due to the accumulation of heat-trapping
gases, particularly carbon dioxide, has been debating among
scientists. They have a scenarios based on their

views.

Stephen H. Schneider (1989) stated that as early as the

19th

century

it

was

recognized

that

carbon

dioxide

in

the

atmosphere gives rise to a greenhouse effect. Some atmospheric

scientist

have

scenarios

that

in

the

future

increasing

the

concentration of CO2 and other gases will increase that heat

trapping and warm the climate. There is controversy among the
scientist will the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
rise the earth temperature by 1.5 or 8 degrees Celsius?, will
the increase take 50, 100, or 150 years?.
Most of scientists fear about occurring

global warming

that is caused by human activities. I consider dividing some

scientist opinions in to three scenarios.
The first scenario is optimistic opinions that the earth
is flexible matter to respond global warming. They argued that
carbon dioxide can be recycled by planting trees to reduce CO2
in

the

Gifford

atmosphere.
and

Dr.

According

Barson

to

examined

Roger
the

Beckmann

(1990),

effectiveness

of

Dr.

three

possible scenarios of deliberate tree-planting by mathematical

model. This mathematical means describing the uptake of carbon
into organic matter as time progresses. The speed of carbon up
taken and total stored both depend on the productivity of the
forest and this can vary considerably, being influenced by the
species of tree, soil fertility, and climate.
According to Dennis Senft (1990), Idso says that while
the increase in carbon dioxide measurable and global warming
may occur sometime in the more distance future, I have come
across no evidence that the earth has already begun to warm.

Our study plus a half dozen others, indicates that we have no

yet begun to feel global warming due to the greenhouse effect.
Two Indonesian professors, Otto Soemarwoto and

Herman Johannes

have opinion that underlined the scenario global warming is

not

proof

yet

and

some

scientists

are

issue (Cokrokusumo, 1992 and Kompas,

still

debating

this

1992).

The second scenario is realistic opinions based on some

evident of global warming. They believe that the earth has
limitation to adapt they changing. If the human activities are
increasing, it will increased the global warming and changed
the climate. Some climate and atmosphere research showed that
the temperatures recorded in some areas were steeply increased.
Dennis Senft (1990) believed that the changing wont be as
rapid or as severe as some sensational news report indicates.
He also argued that some changes will even be for the better
than

of

the

earths

human

population-like

increased

food

production.
The

third

scenario

is

pessimistic

views

that

global

warming will increasing sharply and destructing dangerously.

They have done some models to predict global warming. According
to

John

R.

Justus,

projecting

that

greenhouse

gases

et

all

increased
could

(1989),

many

concentrations

lead

to

more

of

scientists
CO2

adsorption

and
of

are
other

infrared

radiation by the atmosphere, forcing additional, global warming

with

deleterious

effects.

Estimates

of

predicted

global

warming, based current rates of greenhouse gases production

from human activities, very widely between 3 and 16 degrees
Fahrenheit by middle of twenty first century.
Some

scientists

tried

to

simulate

that

if

average

temperatures increase by 3-4 degree Celsius, it will raised 1

meter sea level. This report regards as a possibility within
the next half century (Paul Hardley, 1992). Schneider believes,
that

we

are

already

in

the

first

years

of

the

greenhouse

century and the planet is probably in store Fore some nasty

surprises and catastrophic changes. (Nicholas Lessen, 1989).
Conclusion : action Plans Think Globally, Act Locally.
Since
1985,

the

many

ozone

worlds

hole

landmark

reduction

of

Montreal
CFC

Antarctica

governments

consensus that action had

the

over

was

reached

confirmed
usually

in

rapid

to be taken. In 1987, they crafted

Protocol,

production

by

which
1999

called
(Michael

for
D.

50

Lemonick,

1992).
In the earth summit this month, an agenda of this meeting
is a treaty to head off global warming. This issue also be
connected with sustainable development. There is an agenda 21
that

consist

of

an

800pages

action

plan

for

sustainable

development.
Most

of

mass

media

duplicated

environmental

concerns

especially global warming. They warn us to aware to save our

world.

Many

scientists

have

conducting

many

environmental

researches. Although, many scientists still have debating about

global warming phenomenons, we must to make actions rather
than waiting for evidence.
Schientist lays out three options for forestalling warming
:

technological

solutions,

adaptations,

and

preventions.

He

also believes that what makes economic and ecological sense now
anyway-improving

energy

efficiency,

halting

tropical

deforestation, and promoting reforestation, to name a few-will

slow warming (Nicholas Lenssen, 1989).
I think the best solution is preventions. Everybody must
takes a part in participations to preventions to prevent our
environment. We must act now, act locally will contribute a
result globally, to consume everything sufficiently. I am agree
with Schneiders statement I wonder what we will say to our

children when they eventually ask what we did-or didnt do to

create the greenhouse century they will inherit.
We did not inherit this earth from or parents, but have
borrowed it from our children (originated from an Indian tribe
in America).

REFFERENCES
Dennis Senft. 1990. Greenhouse effect may not be all bad.
Agricultural Research, October : 20.
Emily

T.

Smith,

1992.

The

road

to

Rio

Plenty

of

good

intentions, but. Business Week, May 11, 1992:42.

John A Katily, 1990. Earth science and problems of global
change Pertambangan dan Energi in English magazine. No 4
Jhon R. Justus, et all. 1989. Global warming : what is known
about it?. CRS Review : Congressional Research Service.
Kompas, 1992. Jangan terjebak menghadapi masalah pemanasan
global Kompas newspaper.
Michael D. Lemonick, 1992. The ozone vanishes Time, February
17 : 40
Nicolas Lessen, 1989. Warm enough?. World Watch. NovemberDecember : 33.
Paul Handley, 1992. before the flood, climate change may
seriously

affect

southeast

Asia.

Far

Eastern

Economic

review. April 16; 65.

Richard

A.

Hougton

and

George

M.

Woodwell,

1989.

Global

Climate Change. Scientific America, April 1989, volume

260.
Roger Backmann, 1991 whats happening to the ozone layer?.
Ecos 69, spring: 6.
Stepehen

H.

Schneider,

1989.

The

changing

climate.

Scientific America. September : 38.

Tjokrokusumo,
newspaper.

1992.

Bumi

dan

Pemanasan

Global.

Kompas