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Power
and
in the
Interdependence
Information
Age
THE
the
Throughout
RESILIENCE
twentieth
OF
STATES
century, modernists
would
transform world
that technology
claiming
Norman Angel? declared that economic
wars irrational and looked forward to the
day when they would become
in the 1970s saw telecommunications
obsolete. Modernists
and jet
travel as creating a global village, and believed that the territorial state,
which has dominated world politics since the feudal age, was being
actors such as multinational
eclipsed by nonterritorial
corporations,
transnational
social movements,
and international
organizations.
as
such
Peter
Alvin
and
Heidi
Likewise,
Drucker,
Toffler,
prophets
and Esther Dyson
that
information
is
revolution
argue
today's
ending
hierarchical bureaucracies
and leading to a new electronic feudalism
with overlapping communities
and jurisdictions laying claim to multiple
layers of citizens' identities and loyalties.
were
of past generations
The modernists
partly right. Angell's
of the impact of war on interdependence was insightful:
understanding
on the
not
I wrought
World War
destruction,
unprecedented
only
battlefield but also on the social and political systems that had thrived
during the relatively
the 1970s predicted,
Robert
peaceful years
multinational
since 1815.As
the modernists
corporations,
nongovernmental
O. Keohane
[81]
of
Robert 0. Keohane
Rules
or
government
[82]
rights.
require
private
FOREIGN
in the form of
authority, whether
or
Classic
governance.
community
AFFAIRS-Volume77No.s
issues of politics?who
governs and on what
as to the real world.
to
cyberspace
terms?are
as relevant
among
societies
ofwhat it did in the early 1970s. Similarly, growth of the Internet and
theWorld Wide Web has been exponential. Internet traffic doubles
are
bandwidths
every 100 days. Communications
expanding rapidly,
to fall. As late as 1980,
costs continue
and communications
phone
calls over copper wire could carry one page of information per second;
can transmit 90,000 volumes
a thin strand of
in
today
optical fiber
a second. As with
steam at the end of the
century and
eighteenth
at the end of the nineteenth,
electricity
productivity
growth has
as
to utilize the new
society learns
technologies.
lagged
Although
firms
industries
and
have
many
undergone
rapid structural changes
since the 1980s, the economic
is far from complete.
transformation
are still in the
We
revolution.
early stages of the information
one feature of what we
That revolution has dramatically
changed
described inPower and Interdependence as "complex interdependence"?
a world
are
in which
less and countries
security and force matter
connected by multiple
social and political relationships. Now anyone
a
a
can
with
be a desktop publisher,
and anyone with
computer
can communicate
modem
with distant parts of the globe at a trivial
cost. Earlier
flows were heavily controlled
transnational
by large
or the Catholic
bureaucracies
like multinational
corporations
remain important,
Church.
Such organizations
but the dramatic
transmission
of information
has opened
the field to
cheapening
and even individuals. These
loosely structured network organizations
ngos and networks are
states with
particularly effective in penetrating
out
to borders and
to force
using domestic constituencies
regard
political
leaders to focus on their preferred agendas. The information revolution
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-
1998
September/October
[83]
Robert O. Keohane
We
revolution.
of complete
complex
interdepence
is
zone
the democractic
a
of states is not world of
is that outside
to forestall another
to create an open international
economy
international
The
and contain communism.
resulting
depression
on
the basis of multilateral
formed
institutions,
put a
principles,
on markets
and deemphasized
and information
military
premium
states to turn away from
for
has
become
It
costly
increasingly
rivalry.
sought
in cyberspace means
between
and distinctions
little
types
by itself. The quality of information
more
not
are
Information
does
of information
important.
probably
one considers the incentives to create
just exist; it is created. When
that are sources of
three different types of information
information,
power become apparent.
to create and
that actors are willing
Free information is information
The sender benefits from
financial compensation.
distribute without
to
and hence has incentives
the information
the receiver believing
is a public good,
information
may vary. Scientific
produce it.Motives
[84]
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-Volume
77No. s
broadcasting,
Marketing,
in the quantity of free information
is
information. The
explosion
most dramatic effect of the information
revolution.
perhaps the
to
that people are willing
Commercial
information is information
create and send at a price. Senders neither gain nor lose
by others
the information,
apart from the compensation
believing
they receive.
_
to be available on the
For such information
Politics will
affect the
miormation
revolution
resolved
as much
as vice
versa.
that intellectual
property
can?assuming
can be
enormous
rights
enforced?generates
as the
demonstrates.
profits, especially for pioneers,
history ofMicrosoft
The rapid growth of electronic commerce and the increase in global
competition will be other important effects of the information revolution.
as old as
confers great advantage
espionage,
Strategic information,
on actors
do not possess it. One enormous
only if their competitors
was that, unbeknown
advantage the United States had inWorld War II
to
the United
States had broken the Japanese codes. The
Tokyo,
is often not particularly
quantity of such information
important. For
the strategic information
available to the United
States
example,
or
about the nuclear weapons
programs of North Korea, Pakistan,
more on
or
on vast
Iraq depends
having reliable satellites
spies than
flows of electronic mail.
The
revolution
information
pendence
by exponentially
inworld politics?between
communication
individuals in networks,
not just individuals within bureaucracies.
But it exists in the context
an
of
structure, and its effects on the flows of
existing political
different types of information vary vastly. Free information will flow
as
faster without
information will be protected
regulation. Strategic
as
much
The
possible?for
example, by encryption
technologies.
flow of commercial
information will depend on whether
property
are established in
Politics
will
the
information
rights
cyberspace.
shape
revolution as much as vice versa.
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-
September/October
1998
[85]
Robert 0. Keohane
THE
NATURE
and
Joseph S.Nye,Jr.
OF
POWER
can be
is power, but what is
power? A basic distinction
to obtain outcomes you
drawn between behavioral power?the
ability
resource
resources that are
want?and
possession of
power?the
usually
associated with
the ability to reach outcomes you want. Behavioral
power, in turn, can be divided into hard and soft power. Hard power
is the ability to get others to do what they otherwise would not do
or rewards. Whether
or
by economic carrots
military
through threats
sticks, the ability to coax or coerce has long been the central element
of power. As we pointed out two decades ago, the ability of the less
or escape the constraints of an
vulnerable tomanipulate
interdependent
at low cost is an important source of power. For
relationship
example,
Knowledge
equivalent
[86]
economic
or
military
FOREIGN
capabilities.
AFFAIRS-
The
Soviet Union
Volume77No.s
had
in Europe
soft power
the spread
Nonetheless,
everyone, for example conservative Muslims.
of information and American
popular culture has generally increased
to American
awareness of and openness
ideas and values. To
global
more often soft power
some extent this reflects deliberate
policies, but
is an inadvertent byproduct.
is also affecting power measured
in
revolution
The
information
terms of resources rather than behavior.
In the eighteenth-century
of power, territory, population,
and agriculture
was a
provided the basis for infantry, and France
principal beneficiary.
resources
In the nineteenth
industrial
century,
capacity provided the
to gain dominance.
that enabled Britain and, later, Germany
By the
European
balance
mid-twentieth
THE
SMALL
VERSUS
THE
physics
and the
broadly
LARGE
Th e n ew conventional wisdom
is that the information revolution has
a
of scale, and barriers
leveling effect. As it reduces costs, economies
it should reduce the power of large states and
of entry to markets,
actors. In
enhance the power of small states and nonstate
practice,
however, international relations are more complex than the technolog
ical determinism
this view suggests. Some aspects of the information
revolution help the small, but some help the already large and powerful.
There
are
several
reasons.
AFFAIRS
September/October
1998
[87]
Robert 0. Keohane
and
Joseph S.NyeyJr.
The
dominant American
market
driven by the
in the 1980s and partly because of large investments
was
often first on
the United
States
Cold War military
competition,
the scene and still enjoys a lead in the application of awide variety of
information
technologies.
Fourth, military power remains important in some critical domains
has some effects
relations. Information
of international
technology
on the use of force that benefit the small and some that favor the pow
erful. The
off-the-shelf
costly military
and increases
add
lucrative
commercial
to be
availability of what used
small states and nonstate actors
benefits
technologies
of large states. Information
the vulnerability
trends,
targets for terrorist groups. Other
systems
however,
refer to a
[88]
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-Volume
77No. s
the
systems. In this dimension,
a
In information warfare,
small
some
to
the
of
expectations
edge makes all the difference. Contrary
or
theorists, the information revolution has not greatly decentralized
states. If anything, it has had the opposite effect.
equalized power among
THE
POLITICS
OF CREDIBILITY
about
What
scarce resource, and those who can distinguish valuable signals from
white noise gain power. Editors, filters, interpreters, and cue-givers
become more in demand, and this is a source of power. There will be
an
names
what
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-
September/October
1998
[89]
Robert 0. Keohane
and
Joseph S.NyeyJr.
a
own country. The bbc, for
providers
reputation
example, has earned
in Baghdad,
state-controlled
radio stations
for credibility, while
in
and Havana
have not. Reputation
has always mattered
Beijing,
world politics, and it has become even more important because of the
cost of transmitting data means
that the
paradox of plenty. The low
to transmit it ismuch less important than it used to be, but the
ability
to filter information
ismore so. Political struggles focus less on
ability
than over the creation
control over the ability to transmit information
of credibility.
Three types of state action illustrate the value of credibility. Much
of the traditional conduct of foreign policy occurs through the exchange
as
are credible.
can be valuable
of promises, which
only insofar
they
that can credibly assure potential partners that
Hence,
governments
over
not act
competitors
they will
opportunistically will gain advantages
the Cold War, for example,
whose promises are less credible. During
the United
States was a more credible ally for Western
European
the United
countries than the Soviet Union because as a democracy
States could more credibly promise not to seek to exploit or dominate
at
to borrow from
its allies. Second,
capital markets
competitive
about one's financial
interests rates requires credible
information
and destruction
in
situation. Finally,
the exercise of soft power requires credibility
States
For instance, as long as the United
order to be persuasive.
a
it could not be
credible advocate of
racial segregation
condoned
in
could
universal human rights. But
June 1998, President Clinton
a
answer
to
to
in
the
Chinese?and
question at
preach human rights
could frankly
about American
shortcomings,
Beijing University
to
to make further progress
States needed
admit that the United
realize
One
of free
information
sources
and the role of credibility is that soft power is likely to become less
a function
instance,
of material
using
force
necessary?for
soft
generate
new.
not
is
Hitler
power. Propaganda
in the 1930s. Slobodan Milosevic's
and Stalin used it effectively
was
crucial to his power in Serbia. InMoscow
control of television
in 1993, a battle for power was fought at a tv station. In Rwanda,
radio stations encouraged
Hutu-controlled
genocide. The power of
[90]
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS
Volume77No.5
by the
supplemented
persists but will be increasingly
broadcasting
controlled
its multiple
channels of communication
Internet, with
actors who cannot control one another by force. The
by multiple
_
issue is not only which actors own television
who
sites?
sources exist?but
plethora of such
to which
of
fountains
pays attention
a
The
Casting
to narrowcast
political
.
,.
the case of worldwide
television,
?npucations.
can also lead to soft power. For inwealth
stance, cnn was based inAtlanta rather than
or Cairo because of America's
Amman
leading position in the indus
try and technology. When
Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the fact that
cnn was an American
company helped to frame the issue, worldwide,
an Arab company been the world's
as
dominant
aggression. Had
as
a
TV channel,
justified
perhaps the issue would have been framed
reverse
to
colonial
humiliation.
attempt
In
send messages
from
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS
of Brazil
or the
sweatshops
1998
September/October
[91]
of
Robert O. Keohane
Southeast
recent Landmine
The
a
of
coalition of network
Asia.
the activities
Conference
resulted
from
organizations
working with
like Canada,
individual
politicians
governments
middle-power
like Senator Patrick Leahy
and celebrities
like Princess
(D-Vt.),
on
to capture attention,
set the
Diana
agenda, and put pressure
leaders. The role of ngos was also an important
channel
political
across
in the global warming
of communication
dis
delegations
at
in December
cussions
1997. Environmental
groups and
Kyoto
in Kyoto
for the attention
of the media
from
industry competed
in part on the findings
of
major countries,
basing their arguments
scientists.
nongovernmental
for a flowering of issue advocacy
There are substantial opportunities
but the credibility of these net
networks
and virtual communities,
works
is fragile. Greenpeace,
Royal Dutch
Brentspar
for instance,
Shell by criticizing
imposed
large
costs
on
itself lost
Sea, but Greenpeace
drilling rig in the North
it later had to admit the inaccuracy of some of its
when
credibility
claims. Atmospheric
as in part
the infor
To be credible,
socially constructed.
ognized
a
in
that is
accordance
mation must be produced
process
through
norms
and
and characterized
with
by transparency
professional
fairness.
procedural
[92]
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-
Volume77No.s
Not
DEMOCRATIC
all
many
free exchange
but
the
are
of information,
and their institutions of governance
not threatened by it. They can shape information because they can
also take it. Authoritarian
states, typically among the laggards, have
more trouble. Governments
such as China s can still limit their citizens'
access to the Internet
service providers and monitoring
by controlling
the relatively small number of users. Singapore has thus far been able
to reconcile its political controls with an increasing role for the Inter
net. But as societies like Singapore reach higher levels of development
where more citizens want fewer restrictions on access to the Internet,
to attract
and transparency
the credibility
necessary
on
terms.
investment
communities
globally competitive
Geographical
want
still matter most, but governments
that
will
rapid development
have to give up some of the barriers to information flows that protected
officials from outside scrutiny. No longer will governments
that want
undermines
AFFAIRS
September/October
1998
[93]
Robert 0. Keohane
most
information
credibility
to establish reputations
revolution,
they will have
amid the white noise of the information
revolution.
for
[94]
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS-Volume77No.s