Intense shift.

Some researchers argue that popu-

As world population surges, debate surrounds studies suggesting that

population growth can have economic and environmental benets

IN 1937, A BUREAUCRAT SERVING IN THE

British Empires Kenya Colony penned an

alarming memo to his bosses about conditions in the Machakos Reserve, a hilly,
drought-prone farming region 50 kilometers
south of Nairobi. Benevolent British rule
had encouraged the explosive multiplication of the natives, he reported, leading to massive environmental degradation.
Every phase of misuse of land is vividly and
poignantly displayed in this Reserve, the
inhabitants of which are rapidly drifting to a
state of hopeless and miserable poverty and
their land to a parching desert of rocks, stones
and sand. The apocalyptic warning came as
the regions population approached 250,000.
Today, more than 1.5 million people call
Machakos home. Rather than a cautionary
example of the perils of overpopulation,
however, for some experts Machakos has
become a symbol of something very different: the idea that rapid human population growth, even in some of Earths driest,
most challenging environments, is not necessarily a recipe for disasterand can even
bring benets. They argue that, over the past
75 years, population growth in Machakos

544

bers alone dont determine the consequences

of population growth, and that a complex
mix of culture, socioeconomics, and biology also plays a role. The ndings are also
renewing interest in the work of a pioneering
Danish economist who challenged conventional notions about the dire consequences
of more peopleand are raising hopes that
even the poorest, fastest-growing regions
could, with the right mix of policies, ride out
the global population tsunami.
Along with this cautious optimism, however, come profound doubts. Some experts
wonder whether the Machakos miracle
can be replicated elsewhere or sustained in
regions experiencing unprecedented population growth. Although local successes
offer hope, it is dangerous to generalize,
warns Jules Siedenberg of the University
of East Anglia in Norwich, U.K. We need
to be sure we are drawing the right lessons,
since peoples lives are at stake.

Doomsters and boomsters

The question of whether population growth
poses a dire threat or a potential opportunity
is an old one. Not long after Thomas Robert
and nearby Nairobi has triggered social and Malthus made his now-famous 1798 preeconomic shifts that have made it possible for diction that more people would doom us to
residents to regreen once-barren hillsides, gigantic inevitable famine, an opposing
reinvigorate failing soils, reduce birth rates, camp of population boomsters emerged,
and increase crop production and incomes. highlighting the potential benets of reproA landscape that was once declared good duction. More people, they argued, meant
for nothing is now like a garden when the more labor, technological innovation, and
rain falls, says Michael Mortimore, a geo- economic growth. Ever since, the rhetorigrapher with Drylands Research, a United cal doomster-versus-boomster battle lines
Kingdombased nonprofit
have barely shifted: Today,
organization, who helped
Video featuring author for instance, even as many
David Malakoff.
document the turnaround
experts warn that more peowww.scim.ag/nY4t8K
in More People, Less Erople threaten to exacerbate
sion, a 1994 study that is still
hunger, poverty, and enviinuentialand controversialtoday. Too ronmental problems, others respond by notmany people still have the simplistic notion ing that nations with some the worlds highthat too many people is a problem, he says. est population densitiessuch as Singapore
What happened in Machakos challenges and the Netherlandsalso have some of the
that pessimism.
worlds strongest economies and environAnd Machakos isnt alone. In other hard- mental commitments.
pressed regions, researchers are nding that
One recurring ashpoint in the debate
even explosive population growth can be has been the ultimate impact of population
accompanied by some surprising trends growth in the worlds drylands, the driest
such as increased tree cover, more produc- and often poorest farming areas of Africa,
tive farms and economies, and improved Asia, and Latin America. They hold nearly
well-being. Such results are adding new fuel one-third of Earths people, and some of these
to long-standing arguments that sheer num- populations, especially in Africa, are grow-

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Are More People

Necessarily a Problem?

lation growth made possible land use and farm

productivity improvements in Kenyas Machakos
region.

CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES/DORLING KINDERSLEY

NEWS

CREDITS (TOP TO BOTTOM): KENYA NATIONAL ARCHIVE; MICHAEL MORTIMORE

SPECIALSECTION

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ing rapidly at 2% to 3% per

men who went off to ght in
year. Many see crisis looming
World War II brought new
in those numbers for people
ideas back home. In 1994,
and the environment. Others,
the researchers distilled their
however, see some hope for
conclusions into a detailed,
a transition to more sustainnuanced, and often provocaable livelihoods and cite Ester
tive 300-page compendium
Boserup, a Danish econowith a bold, counterintuitive
mist who died in 1999, as one
bottom line: More People,
source of their optimism.
Less Erosion.
In 1965, the then-littleThe book hit the polknown Boserup, who spent
icy world with a storm, the
most of her career consultAssociation of American
ing for international developGeographers noted in giving
ment institutions, published a
Mortimore a major award in
slim volume titled The Condi2008. In particular, the study
tions of Agricultural Growth:
controverted Malthus and
The Economics of Agrarbacked Boserup, concludian Change under Populaing that increasing population Pressure. It examined the
tion density has had positive
history of subsistence farmeffects. In Machakos, more
ing and offered a theory that
people had provided both
essentially turned Malthus
the labor and the necessity
upside down. Instead of risfor a transition to intensicaing population density leading
tion and better land stewardto barren elds and starvation,
ship. Rising populations had
Boserup suggested it could
also created a rich social
naturally trigger intensicamilieu for innovation, infortion: the use of new technolomation-sharing, and political
gies and more labor to get biginvolvement. Meanwhile, in
ger harvests from less land. Rebirth. By the 1990s (bottom), extra labor had enabled Machakos farmers to ter- nearby Nairobi, more people
The idea was that people race and revegetate hillsides that were barren and eroded in the 1930s (top).
had helped create demand
werent just mouths to feed but
for the farm products grown
also brains that could think and hands and legs Malthus controverted?
in Machakos and also seasonal jobs for
that could work very hard, Mortimore says. In the 1990s, such questions prompted the young people from the region. This provided
So, for instance, a farmer who once might World Bank and other institutions to launch Machakos with income for further, capitalhave been able to weed a eld just once during a range of studies, including the one that intensive improvements. Greater economic
the growing season could now justify using enabled a large team led by Mortimore and stability also led families to have fewer chilmore abundant labor to weed it three times, Mary Tiffen of the U.K.s Oversees Devel- dren and invest more in education. Politiincreasing yields and maybe even providing opment Institute and Francis Gichuki of the cians had helped out by mostly getting out of
the income needed to dig an irrigation ditch or University of Nairobi, to spend 2 years dis- the way and letting markets create the right
haul in animal manure to restore soil fertility.
secting what had transpired in Machakos incentives for farmers. Whats more, the
Boserups work carried some provoca- between 1930 and 1990, as its population authors argued, Machakos is not unique.
tive implications. One was that under- roughly quadrupled. Drawing on a trove of Other places in Kenya, and communities in
population, not overpopulation, was a bar- dataincluding historical documents and Nigeria and Indonesia, had also experienced
rier to development. Another was that, con- photos, eld surveys of everything from restoration miracles despite growing poputrary to the conventional wisdom, dry areas soil fertility to household finances, and lations, they noted in a 1994 follow-up paper
might not have a xed carrying capacity; numerous interviewsthe team charted in the journal World Development. It was a
instead, with more labor, they might be the demographic and socioeconomic forces message, Mortimore says, very out of step
able to sustain more people over time and that had buffeted Machakos households with the doom and gloom about population
thus hasten the demographic transition and how they responded. The research- at the time.
to lower birth rates. Finally, her work sug- ers documented how, for example, farmNearly 2 decades later, More People, Less
gested that dryland farmers, given the right ers built terraces to control erosion, Erosion has become an importantand conincentives, could be counted on to invest in stepped up their use of animal fertilizers, tentiousscholarly classic. Recently, the
and take care of their land, solving, rather and began selling food to burgeoning mar- head of the United Nations agency that deals
than aggravating, natural resource damage. kets in nearby Nairobi. They also exam- with desertication paid homage to the study
Still, many were skeptical: Was this another ined the growing inuence of women, the in a speech, hailing a promising trend of
beautiful theory destined to be destroyed by church and community groups, the impact more people, more trees, and less erosion
ugly facts?
of the end of colonialism, and how local in some drylands. Critics, however, have

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raised questions about the studys methods New synthesis

In some parts of Africa, meanwhile,
and conclusions and argued that it ignored At the same time, many scholars are devel- researchers are documenting a notable,
or downplayed some issues, such as a cof- oping a view of population impacts that Machakos-like regreening of arid areas
fee-planting boom in the 1970s that may fuses Malthusian and Boserupian perspec- with fast-growing populations. Studies by
have provided a one-time economic jolt. tives. And, like realtors, they say one key fac- geographer Chris Reij of the University of
Although overall incomes are up and birth tor in predicting consequences is location, Amsterdam in the Netherlands and others
rates are now down in Machakos, some location, location. The dynamics play out have shown that in the Sahel, the tree- and
experts note that it still doesnt grow enough differently, depending on where you are, shrub-growing trend has been boosted by
food to feed its population. And the poorest says Erle Ellis of the University of Mary- policy changes, such as giving farmers ownfamilies may not have benef ited
ership of trees that grow on their land
from the miracle, which appears to
and some technical assistance. Theres
have favored families that already
some evidence that the extra greenery
had land and other assets, British
is helping to make poor farm commuscholar John Murton concluded in a
nities more resilient to droughts and
1999 study published in The Geoeconomic setbacks, but the long-term
graphical Journal. Conservationoutlook remains at best unclear.
ists, meanwhile, note that intensiIn the forest frontiers of South and
cation can actually worsen problems
Central America, researchers have
like biodiversity loss and water polfound both Malthusian and Boserulution. Researchers have also added
pian forces at work in deforestation.
to the debate over whether MachaDepending on local circumstances,
kos is an exception or the rule in a
families faced with growing populastring of technical papers. They have
tion densities have responded by both
titles such as Fewer people, less
migrating to clear new farms in forerosion: The twentieth century in
ested areas, the agricultural extensisouthern Bolivia, and More peocation predicted by Malthus, and
ple, more soil degradation: The
intensied land use la Boserup, a
Malawi experience.
team led by David Carr of the UniEast Anglias Seidenburg, for one,
versity of California, Santa Barbara,
believes it is a mistake to assume
reported in a 2009 study in Population
that the Boserupian processes seen
and Development. Paradoxically, the
in Machakos are an automatic
result is that areas with relatively low
result of population growth. The
population densities can have much
study showed solid outcomes
higher deforestation rates than those
for one region but has perpetuated
with higher densities.
unhelpful hyperbole, he argued in
Whats needed now, Carrs team
a 2006 critique in Development Polargues, are careful, Machakos-like
icy Review. The problem, he says,
studies that tease out the effects
is that there are countless instances
of changing demographics in remote
where fast-growing farming comforest frontiers. Other research has
munities have not been innova- Fruits of labor. Machakos markets are now a source of produce for found that a farmers age, gender,
tive enough and are suffering as a nearby Nairobi and surrounding areas.
and land tenure, for instance, can
result. Some farmers lack the market
affect his or her willingness to put
demand created by a nearby city, whereas land, Baltimore County. His own studies in capital and labor into the land, with older
others lack access to capital, fertilizers, or China of areas that have been farmed for male farmers sometimes deciding to forgo
information. He fears that focusing on sim- thousands of years, for instance, taught him improvements. Understanding such nuances
ple take-home messages, like farmers will that Boserup was right. Intensication has could help forge better forest-protection
figure it out, distracts from addressing supported extensive population growth and and land-use policies, experts say. And Carr
the barriers that often prevent scaling-up ultimately urbanization, which has led to the and his colleagues predict that new studies
local successes.
abandonment and revegetation of less fertile will surely test what they say has become
Mortimore sees merit in some of the cri- lands (a process experts call land release). a Boserupian orthodoxy of population dentiques and agrees that there is no single rec- But the trend doesnt necessarily mean life sity leading to agricultural intensication.
ipe for success. And many drylands experts is easier, he cautions. People are working If so, it will open a new chapter in the long
believe that more people need not mean catas- harder than ever, as Boserup predicted. And and rich debate over how population growth
trophe. The trick is getting good policy that the specter of Malthus looms over Chinas affects the planet, and when and where more
addresses local conditions and recognizes coercive one-child policywhich implic- people are a problem. Maybe the book could
the needs and knowledge of local people, itly recognizes the downside of popula- be titled Less People, More Deforestation.
Mortimore says. Local win-win outcomes tion growthand in the nations growing
DAVID MALAKOFF
are clearly possible, Siedenburg says.
environmental problems.
David Malakoff is a writer living in Alexandria, Virginia.