RPT GMTP 2016 04 PEEK PDF

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION
COMING!
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay
GLOBAL MACRO & TIPPING POINTS
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - MARCH 2016
2/29/2016
1 MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved
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CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING!

Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - MARCH 2016
GLOBAL RISK ......................................................................................................................................... 32

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................. 32
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!".................................................................................................................................................... 32
LIQUIDITY is Neither WEALTH nor COLLATERAL ................................................................................................................................................ 33
Our Assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
James Rickards Global Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 94
LATEST FROM THE MONITORS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 94
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 98
NEW-MONITORS Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citi All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent?............ 98
NEW-MONITORS The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World" ........................................... 100
WORLD BANK ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 103
NEW-WB Key Takeaways From the World Bank/IMF Meetings .............................................................................................................. 103
NEW-WB Federal Reserve rate rise would cause panic and turmoil, warns World Bank ........................................................................ 104
WB World Bank - Global Economic Prospects Report .............................................................................................................................. 104
WB Warns Developing Nations Growth Slowing 2.8% Global 2015 Growth ........................................................................................ 105
WB Global Growth Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................ 108
WB- World Bank warns 100M Unemployed, 447M Working Poor, 600M Required for Population Growth Alone ................................. 109
WB- World Bank Says 300M Young People neither Working nor Studying ............................................................................................... 110
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 112
NEW-OECD World cannot spend its way out of a slump, warns OECD chief ......................................................................................... 112
NEW-OECD OECD Chief Economist: It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets ....................................................................... 114
OECD Leading Indicator Casts Doubt on US Economic Rebound .......................................................................................................... 116
OECD Warns 40 Million People Will Be Out of Work Next Year .............................................................................................................. 117
OECD Cuts Global Growth Projections Again ............................................................................................................................................. 119
IMF ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 120
NEW-IMF IMF warns of stagnation threat to G7 economies ..................................................................................................................... 120
NEW-IMF IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch .......................................................................................................................................... 122
IMF Tells Regulators to Brace for Global Liquidity Shock ......................................................................................................................... 124
IMF- Lagarde warns of lopsided global growth .......................................................................................................................................... 129
IMF warns of new threats to global economy due to excessive risk taking ................................................................................................ 130
BIS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 132
NEW-BIS BIS Warns of Major Faultlines In Global Debt Bubble ........................................................................................................... 132
BIS - BIS Quarterly Report ........................................................................................................................................................................... 134
BIS - BIS Slams The Fed: The Solution To Bubbles Is Not More Bubbles ................................................................................................. 134
BIS - Former BIS Chief Economist: "The System Is Dangerously Unanchored ......................................................................................... 135
BIS - Even the BIS Is Shocked At How Broken Markets Have Become ..................................................................................................... 137
BIS - Perhaps The BIS Can Share Its Next "Debt Trap" Warnings With Its Own Board Of Directors First ................................................ 141
BIS - The Next Time The BIS Wants To Warn About Monetary Kool-Aid, Bubbles, Lack Of Liquidity Or Complacency .......................... 144
BIS - "Low Volatility Everywhere" - BIS Sounds Alarm Alert On Pervasive Complacency Masking Systemic Shocks ............................. 145
BIS - BIS warns on 'violent' reversal of global markets ............................................................................................................................... 150
WEF WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ............................................................................................................................................................ 154
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 154
WEF Global Business Risks ................................................................................................................................................................. 156
WEF The 2015 Global Risk Landscape ................................................................................................................................................ 157
WEF Evolving Risk Landscape (2007-2015) ........................................................................................................................................ 158
WEF Global Risk Exposures By Region ............................................................................................................................................... 159
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 160
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 160
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 162
NEW-Credit Denominated in US Dollars ..................................................................................................................................................... 162
NEW-IMFs Global GDP Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................. 162
NEW-IMF Economic Forecasts Are So Consistently Bad That it Says they Dont Understand the Problem! .......................................... 163
Total Global Credit-Market Debt Owed as % of GDP ................................................................................................................................. 164
57T Increase in Total Debt Since 2007 and $112T Since 2000 Dotcom Bubble Implosion ....................................................................... 165
Global Risk Landscape Grid ........................................................................................................................................................................ 166
Geopolitical Risks Are Climbing: Interstate Conflict is Highest Risk in 2015 .............................................................................................. 167
Global Risks of Highest Concern ................................................................................................................................................................. 167
Global Risks Versus Impact ......................................................................................................................................................................... 168
The economic balance of the world is shifting ............................................................................................................................................. 169
Global Conflict Intensity is heating up.......................................................................................................................................................... 170
World Conflict Map ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
World Conflict Map Details........................................................................................................................................................................ 172
MARCH 2016 Edition

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Global Conflict & Protest Intensity ............................................................................................................................................................... 173

Deutsche Banks Key Global Risk ............................................................................................................................................................... 173
Political and Financial Risk Now Outnumber Real Economy Risks ............................................................................................................ 174
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 175
NEW-A Generation in Crisis- - The World Needs 5 Million Jobs-Month To Stymie Youth Extremism ....................................................... 175
NEW-Presenting SocGen's 5 Black Swans For 2016 ................................................................................................................................. 176
NEW- Paul Brodsky: "Expect The Unexpected. It Might Be Time To Duck And Cover" ............................................................................ 179
McKinsey Institute says global debt is $199 Trillion and UNSUSTAINABLE .............................................................................................. 182
Deutsche Bank's Ominous Warning: A "Perfect Storm" Is Coming In 2018 ............................................................................................... 187
Global Conflict Intensity Spikes To 7-Year High.......................................................................................................................................... 190
These Are 2015's "Black Swans" According To SocGen ............................................................................................................................ 191
"Globalization Is Turning In On Itself And It Is Each Man For Himself"....................................................................................................... 193
Putin Unleashes Fury at US Follies in Major Pivotal Speech ................................................................................................................... 196
Putin Warns Of Risk of Major Conflict, Says Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status ............................................................................... 197
Putin Accuses U.S. of Blackmail, Weakening Global Order ....................................................................................................................... 198
REFERENCE PAPERS Position Reminders Lest We Forget ................................................................................................................... 201
FOURTH TURNING ACCELERATING ....................................................................................................................................................... 201
AMERICAS GLOBAL RETREAT ................................................................................................................................................................ 212
THE OLD WORLD ORDER IS OVER ......................................................................................................................................................... 215
THE DEMOGRAPHIC THREAT TO DEVELOPED NATIONS ................................................................................................................... 216
THE RISK CONTINUUM ............................................................................................................................................................................. 219
GLOBAL TRENDS THE SIX FRAMING MEGATRENDS ........................................................................................................................ 221
GLOBAL THEMES TEN STRUCTURALTHEMES FOR STRATEGY ..................................................................................................... 223
DEBT SATURATION - A COLLAPSING PONZI SCHEME......................................................................................................................... 225
WINTER 2015 EVENT RISK DOMINATES ........................................................................................................................................... 227
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 234

GEO-POLITICAL RISK - SOCIAL, ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL ........................................................................................................ 236
NEW-PARIS SHOCKER ISIS Reality ................................................................................................................................................................. 236
NEW-TERRORISM - "There's No Such Thing As ISIS": Journalist Destroys West's Terror Narrative, Warns Of Crackdown On "Dissidents"
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 236
NEW-TERRORISM - Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel: ISIL poses a threat greater than 9/11. ............................................................. 237
NEW-TERRORISM - Two Reasons the 'War On Terror' Will Always Fail ...................................................................................................... 238
NEW-TAXATION Setting the Stage for the Coming Taxation Explosion ........................................................................................................... 240
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 240
NEW-TAXATION Taxes must be paid, says George Osborne, as he backs crackdown on havens. ..................................................... 240
NEW-TAXATION The Coming Tax Tsunami Will Erode Wealth and Capital at a Shocking Pace .......................................................... 242
NEW-DEMOGRAPHICS Aging Population & Youth Unempolyment ................................................................................................................. 244
CHART OF NOTE............................................................................................................................................................................................ 244
NEW-YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Population .............................................................................................................................. 244
NEW-YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Aging ...................................................................................................................................... 244
NEW-YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Aging By Country ................................................................................................................... 245
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 247
NEW-YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT - "A Generation In Crisis" - The World Needs 5 Million Jobs/Month To Stymie Youth Extremism ...... 247
NEW-YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT - Four Ticking Global Time-Bombs Few Even Hear ............................................................................. 248
GEO-POLITICAL RISK TENSIONS & CONFLICTS..................................................................................................................... 253

ISIS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 253
ISIS THE SUNNI / SHIA /KURD PROBLEM ............................................................................................................................................ 254
NEW-ISIS - An Undercover Look Inside ISIS .......................................................................................................................................... 258
ISIS - Obama Says ISIS War Powers Request Not About 'Another Ground War' .................................................................................. 260
ISIS - President Obama Explains His "Boots On The Ground" ISIS-War Strategy................................................................................. 260
ISIS- Kobani Overshadows Larger Battles .............................................................................................................................................. 261
SYRIA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 264
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ..................................................................................................................................................................... 264
NEW-SYRIA - Pipeline Politics: Russia, Turkey Clash Over Energy As Syria Rift Shifts Focus To German Line ................................. 265
NEW-SYRIA - Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead .............................................. 268
NEW-SYRIA - Is The US Going To War With Syria Over A Natural Gas Pipeline? ............................................................................... 270
NEW-SYRIA - Why Did Obama Choose Syria? ...................................................................................................................................... 273
SYRIA - Syria "Welcomes" Larger Russia Presence............................................................................................................................... 274
SYRIA - This has the Earmarks of the Kennedy Ear "Cuban Missile" Crisis .......................................................................................... 275
SYRIA - Syrian War You Are Not Being Told About ................................................................................................................................ 277
SYRIA - 25 Quotes ................................................................................................................................................................................... 278
SYRIA - What Coalition? .......................................................................................................................................................................... 281
SYRIA - US Supporting Fully an "Al Qaeda Operation" .......................................................................................................................... 283
SYRIA - Decision Already Taken to Bomb Syria ..................................................................................................................................... 285
SYRIA - Market Patterns Before and Immediately After Conflict Begins ................................................................................................ 293
SOUTH CHINA SEA TERRITORIAL PROBLEMS ......................................................................................................................................... 295
NEW-CHINA SEA - Why China Wants Control of The South China Sea In 10 Charts .......................................................................... 296
NEW-CHINA SEA - "Strongly Dissatisfied" China Warns US "Accident" Is "Highly Likely" In South China Sea ................................... 301
NEW-CHINA SEA - PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ; Will "Fight .................................................................. 303
IRAN ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 305
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 305
NEW-IRAN A Mistake of Historic Proportion! Bibi Netanyanhu ......................................................................................................... 305
NEW-IRAN NBC Special Report: Nuclear Agreement Reached With Iran .......................................................................................... 308
MARCH 2016 Edition

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YEMEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 309

CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 309
YEMEN Strategic Position .................................................................................................................................................................... 309
YEMEN al-Houthis and Saleh Concentrations ..................................................................................................................................... 310
YEMEN The Decisive Storm Coalition ............................................................................................................................................... 310
YEMEN Global Oil Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................................................... 311
YEMEN Middle Eastern Oil Production & Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................ 311
YEMEN Chinese Import Countries & Oil Routes .................................................................................................................................. 313
YEMEN Major Crude Oil Trade Flows in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................ 314
YEMEN Regional Territorial Claims in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................... 315
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 316
YEMEN Risk of World War between NATO and Russia on Ukraine Escalation as Yemen Bombed for Third Day .......................... 316
YEMEN Yemen Ground Invasion by Saudi, Egyptian Troops Imminent .............................................................................................. 318
YEMEN Middle East Proxy War: Presenting The Massive "Decisive Storm" Coalition ....................................................................... 321
YEMEN Saudi Arabia Imposes Naval Blockade on Red Sea Strait, Deploys 150,000 Troops ........................................................... 322
YEMEN Another Middle East War Breaks Out: Saudis Begin Bombing Yemen, US Military Taking Action ....................................... 324
YEMEN Presenting The Theater Of War; Who Controls Yemen? ....................................................................................................... 329
YEMEN US-Armed Rebels Force Yemen President To Flee Country As Saudis Prepare For War ................................................... 331
UKRAINE EAST/WEST CONFLICT The New Colder War ..................................................................................................................... 336
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 343
UKRAINE - Putin Is Becoming A "Vulture" Bond Investor ....................................................................................................................... 343
UKRAINE - West Further Infuriates & Antagonizes Russia with Debt Restructuring Pressures ............................................................ 344
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms Shipments.................................................................................................. 348
UKRAINE - US Taxpayers to Fund Ukraine Bailout via Bond Guarantee ............................................................................................... 352
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms .................................................................................................................... 353
UKRAINE - White House Explains Where Your $1.3 Billion Went In Ukraine ........................................................................... 356
UKRAINE - Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don't Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover "Schemes" ............................... 359
UKRAINE - Putin Security Council Slams Obama Attempts at "New World Order" ............................................................................... 360
UKRAINE- A Russian Viewpoint .......................................................................................................................................................... 362
UKRAINE- This Is What Is Really Taking Place Behind The Scenes Of The Second US-Russian Cold War....................... 376
GEO-POLITICAL RISK GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE......................................................................................................... 379

NEW-GOVERNANCE The G-30 Group of Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World"............................................... 379
ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK A Threat to World Bank and US$ Reserve Status ..................................................... 382
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 385
AIIB Demanding Infrastructure .............................................................................................................................................................. 385
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 386
AIIB - The Nepo-Cold War, The World Bank and the AIIB Threat .............................................................................................. 386
AIIB - Washington Blinks: Will Seek Partnership With China-Led Development Bank ........................................................................... 388
AIIB - China "Is Not Another US", Does Not Seek "Yuan Hegemony" .................................................................................................... 389
AIIB - Obama administration proposes co-financing projects with new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............. 391
AIIB - Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait AND Saudi Arabia have applied Goodbye Petrodollar! .............................................................. 394
AIIB - Obama continues to be humiliated by the rising anti-dollar alliance ............................................................................. 396
AIIB - Did De-Dollarization Just Reach Escape Velocity? ....................................................................................................................... 398
EMERGING BRICS ALLIANCE NEW MULTI-POLAR WORLD .................................................................................................................. 401
MULTI-POLAR-Money Supply The New World Economy ....................................................................................................................... 401
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalist Impose Monetary Hegemony .............................................................................................................. 403
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalists Controlling the Political Process ........................................................................................................ 405
ADVANCING GLOBAL FINANCIAL REPRESSION ....................................................................................................................................... 408
HENRY KISSINGER CALLS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER (NWO) ................................................................................................................ 410
KISSINGER- Henry Kissingers World Order ............................................................................................................................................. 410
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 413

AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX ............................................................................................................................................. 413
NEW-BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD ................................................................................................................................................ 414
NEW-BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD ........................................................................................................................................................... 414
NEW-CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS ....................................................................................................................... 415
NEW-CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS .................................................................................................................................. 415
NEW-CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE ......................................................................................................................... 416
NEW-ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX ......................................................................................................................................... 416
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 ......................................................................................................................... 418
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY ............................................................................................................................................... 418
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES ......................................................................................................................................................... 419
NEW-COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES .................................................................................................................................... 420
AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL ................................................................................................................................................................................ 421
GLOBAL MACRO: TIPPING POINTS ...................................................................................................................................... 423

CHANGES TO RANKINGS Q4 2015 ................................................................................................................................................................. 423
CHANGES TO RANKINGS - Longer Term Benchmarks ...................................................................................................................................... 425
CHANGES TO ROADMAPS - Longer Term Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 426
CHANGES TO RANKINGS - Longer Term Benchmarks ...................................................................................................................................... 427
TIPPING POINTS: TOP 5 FOCUS - DECEMBER 2015 ....................................................................................................................................... 430
MARCH 2016 Edition

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NEW-I BOND BUBBLE................................................................................................................................................................................. 430

NEW-II- GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK ......................................................................................................................................................... 439
NEW-III - CHINA HARD LANDING ................................................................................................................................................................. 452
NEW-IV - RISK REVERSAL ............................................................................................................................................................................ 461
NEW-V- JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION ............................................................................................................................................................... 465
GLOBAL MACRO: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................ 472

ECONOMIC CUTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 472
NEW-IMF DOWNGRADES OUTLOOK FOR WORLD ECONOMY ............................................................................................................... 472
NEW-IMF Now Projects the world economy will grow by only 3.4% in 2016 .............................................................................................. 472
NEW-IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook Again, Warning "Of Great Challenges" In Year Ahead........................................................... 473
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................ 477
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AGAIN!............................................................................................................................................ 488
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ........................................................................................................................................................ 490
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 492
IMF To Slash Economic Growth Forecast... AGAIN - Still Full of Hockey sticks ........................................................................................ 492
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 3 ................................................................................................................................... 496
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 2 ................................................................................................................................... 500
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record - 1 .................................................................................................................................... 500
ECONOMIC WARNINGS....................................................................................................................................................................................... 501
NEW-OECD WARNS ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 501
NEW-'WORSE THAN 2007': OECD Chairman warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies .......................................................... 501
IMF WARNS .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 503
IMF Warns of gloomy eurozone outlook ...................................................................................................................................................... 503
IMF Warns U.S.: Your financial system is (still) vulnerable ......................................................................................................................... 507
IMF Warns Japan over Its Staggering National Debt .................................................................................................................................. 509
IMF Warns Japan to step up reforms .......................................................................................................................................................... 509
IMF Warns Fed on risks of hiking too soon ................................................................................................................................................. 510
IMF Warns of Permanent Stagnation .......................................................................................................................................................... 511
IMF Sees risk of new eurozone ................................................................................................................................................................... 513
IMF Tells Central Europe to Spend More .................................................................................................................................................... 516
Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable ................................................................................................................................................... 519
Global Recovery Faltering, Reduces Global Growth to Just Above 3% Global Recession Level .............................................................. 521
BIS WARNS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 523
BIS WARNS - Former BIS Economic Advisor Warns on European QE ..................................................................................................... 523
Monetary Policy At Its Limits ........................................................................................................................................................................ 535
WORLD BANK WARNS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 536
Social Unrest Stems from Shrinking Disposable Income. Jobs are the central issue. ............................................................................... 538
G20 WARNS Need to Add $2T in Economic Activity & Tens of Millions of Jobs ........................................................................................ 541
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................... 542
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 545
NEW-CHART: A Global Bear Market? ............................................................................................................................................................ 545
NEW-CHART: World Equity Market Capitalization Loses .............................................................................................................................. 546
NEW-CHART: A 7.5 Year Global Cycle May be Underway ............................................................................................................................ 546
NEW-CHART: Chinas Total Debt at 3005 A Drag on Future Growth ............................................................................................................ 547
NEW-CHART: The Largest Rolling Losses in Commodities Since the Great Depression ............................................................................. 547
NEW-CHART: Latest IMF Global Growth Projections .................................................................................................................................... 548
NEW-CHART: IMF Global Growth Projections -2 ........................................................................................................................................... 548
NEW-CHART: IMF Perspective on Global Transitions & Associated Risks ................................................................................................... 550
CHART: Global Consumer Confidence Turns................................................................................................................................................. 550
CHART: Global Consumer Confidence Momentum versus Bond Yields ....................................................................................................... 551
CHART: Bear Grip Felt Around the World ....................................................................................................................................................... 551
CHART: Emerging Market FX in Freefall ........................................................................................................................................................ 552
CHART: Asian Dollar Index Sends Ominous Sign .......................................................................................................................................... 553
CHART: Biggest Currency Losers ................................................................................................................................................................... 553
CHART: The Great Unwind - A Triple Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................... 554
CHART: Latin Americas Economic Slowdown ............................................................................................................................................... 555
CHART: Global Stock of Debt Outstanding Grows By $57T since Financial Crisis ....................................................................................... 555
CHART: Decade-Long Central Bank FX Reserves Surge Nears End ............................................................................................................ 556
CHART: Global Business Equipment Investment ........................................................................................................................................... 557
CHART: EM versus DM Credit Risk ................................................................................................................................................................ 558
CHART: MSCI World P/E versus EM P/E ....................................................................................................................................................... 558
CHART: Emerging Capital Flows & Currency Moves ..................................................................................................................................... 559
CHART: Falling Real GDP of Emerging Versus Rising Developed Economies ............................................................................................. 559
CHART: Domestic Bank Credit of EM versus DM .......................................................................................................................................... 560
CHART: Regional Resilience Score Differences Since the Financial Crisis................................................................................................... 560
CHART: US Macro index at a New 6 Year Low. ............................................................................................................................................. 562
CHART: There is a Problem in Global Credit .................................................................................................................................................. 562
CHART: Serial Disappointments & Ratcheting Down of Global Growth ......................................................................................................... 563
CHART: Continuous Weakening of Global GDP Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 564
CHART: Reduced Demand Pressures on Energy Prices ............................................................................................................................... 564
CHART: Reduced Demand Pressures on Commodities................................................................................................................................. 565
CHART: Global Corporate Profit Trends ......................................................................................................................................................... 565
CHART: Stunning Growth in Debt of Developed Economies since Dotcom Bubble Burst ............................................................................ 566
CHART: Worlds FDI Flooding Into Financial Products versus Productive Assets ......................................................................................... 567
MARCH 2016 Edition

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CHART: Growth of Asian Middle Class Dominates Next 20 Years .............................................................................................................. 568
CHART: Global Domestic Demand Growth .................................................................................................................................................... 568
CHART: Fiscal Adjustments Required Deficit Reductions for Fiscal Sustainability..................................................................................... 569
CHART: Over $10 Trillion Pumped Into Global Economy by Developed Economies .................................................................................... 570
CHART: Eventually All this Debt Must be Rolled over or Paid Out................................................................................................................. 570
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 570
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun ................................................................................................................. 571
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Biggest Worry" Is Dramatic Decline In Bond Market Liquidity, Prudential Says ...................................................... 574
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Proving to be Volatile ............................................................................................................... 575
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Forecasts Hinge on a Deteriorating US Economy ................................................................... 578
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession ........................................................................................... 579
GLOBAL OUTLOOK This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy ...................................................................................................... 582
GLOBAL OUTLOOK What is global market turbulence telling us? ............................................................................................................. 586
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn ............................................................ 589
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 591
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 593
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................. 594
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ......................................................................... 599
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ................................................................................................. 601
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ........................................................................ 604
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth ............................................................ 607
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat ........................................................................................................................ 610
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ..................................................................................................................... 612
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ............................................................................... 615
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap ................................................................................................................................................. 617
GLOBAL MACRO: INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................ 621

GLOBAL TRENDS ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 621
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 621
NEW-GLOBAL TRENDS Global Nominal GDP Growth May Be in the Midst of a Secular Downturn .................................................... 621
NEW-GLOBAL TRENDS World GDP Growth Rates Since 2000 ............................................................................................................ 621
GLOBAL TRENDS World Industrial Production Index ............................................................................................................................. 622
GLOBAL TRENDS World Industrial Production Index Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................ 622
GLOBAL TRENDS UNITED STATES Industrial Production Index .......................................................................................................... 623
GLOBAL TRENDS UNITED STATES Industrial Production Index Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ......................................... 623
GLOBAL TRENDS JAPAN Industrial Production Index ........................................................................................................................... 624
GLOBAL TRENDS EURO AREA Industrial Production Index ................................................................................................................. 624
GLOBAL TRENDS EMERGING ASIA Industrial Production Index.......................................................................................................... 625
GLOBAL TRENDS EMERGING ASIA Industrial Production Index.......................................................................................................... 625
GLOBAL TRENDS Consensus 2015 World GDP Growth Expectations ................................................................................................. 625
GLOBAL TRENDS US Macro Continues to Plummet .............................................................................................................................. 626
GLOBAL TRENDS GLI Momentum & Global Industrial Production Both About to Go Into Contraction ................................................. 627
GLOBAL TRENDS Changes in 2014 2015 Profit (EPS) Forecasts By Country/Region ................................................................... 627
GLOBAL TRENDS Changes in 2014 2015 Profit (EPS) Forecasts By Sector .................................................................................. 628
GLOBAL TRENDS G7 Long Run GDP Growth Rates (PPP Weighted) .................................................................................................. 628
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Population Growth Rate in Developed Economies ....................................................................................... 629
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Labor Productivity Rate in Developed Economies ........................................................................................ 630
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Workers Per Retiree in Developed Economies ............................................................................................. 630
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 631
GLOBAL TRENDS The Commodities Super-Cycle Has Gone Into Reverse .......................................................................................... 631
GLOBAL TRENDS The curse of weak global demand ............................................................................................................................ 631
GLOBAL TRENDS Is economic growth permanently lower? Do We Have Secular Stagnation ........................................................... 636
GLOBAL TRENDS - The Facts are Clear - the US Standard of Living is Falling ....................................................................................... 640
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 641
GLOBAL GROWTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 641
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 641
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Global Nominal Y-o-Y GDP Grow .................................................................................................................. 641
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Volume Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................ 641
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Industrial Production ............................................................................................................................ 641
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Values in US$ ..................................................................................................................................... 642
GLOBAL GROWTH World Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 643
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade (Values in US$) Index ......................................................................................................................... 644
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Volumes Annual % Change 1966 to May 2015 .............................................................................. 645
GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................................. 646
GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................................................ 646
GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................................... 647
GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ........................................................................................... 647
GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................ 648
GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................................. 648
GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ..................................................... 649
GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ..................................................................... 649
GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................... 650
GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................................... 650
GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Imports, Annual % Change ...................................................................................................................... 651
GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Exports, Annual % Change ...................................................................................................................... 651
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram Gets Worse ............................................................................................... 652
MARCH 2016 Edition

6

GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 653

GLOBAL GROWTH Eurozone PMI and GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 654
GLOBAL GROWTH World PMI Rankings ................................................................................................................................................ 655
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Has Now Rolled Over ...................................................................................................... 656
GLOBAL GROWTH Global PMI Business Surveys Fall .......................................................................................................................... 656
GLOBAL GROWTH Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% .............................................................................................................................. 657
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Slowdown on Verge of Contraction.............................................................................................................. 658
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down........................................................................................................... 658
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Goldmans Swirlogram Getting More Serious ......................................................... 658
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Industrial Production Rolling Over ............................................................................................................. 659
GLOBAL GROWTH Consensus 2014 GDP Forecast - Differential ......................................................................................................... 660
GLOBAL GROWTH G10 Macro Change ................................................................................................................................................. 660
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 661
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH - World Trade & Industrial Production Growth Near Post-Crisis Lows ............................................................. 661
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH - CEO of World's Largest Shipping Company: "Global Growth Is Worse Than Official Reports" .................... 663
GLOBAL GROWTH - World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows ................................................................................... 665
GLOBAL GROWTH - Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses into "Confirmed Slowdown" ............................ 667
GLOBAL GROWTH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine ................................................................ 668
GLOBAL GROWTH Potential of a Global Recession Mounting .............................................................................................................. 670
GLOBAL GROWTH What the hint of a Fed Taper Did to Global Growth Estimates ............................................................................. 674
GLOBAL GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic ............................................................................................................................. 676
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global Growth Cycle ................................................................................................................................................. 678
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global GDP Contribution .......................................................................................................................................... 679
GLOBAL GROWTH - Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments ........................................................................................................ 680
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 681
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 681
NEW-GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Historic Record Low Baltic Dry Index .................................................................................................. 681
NEW-GLOBAL CONSUMPTION China Containerized Freight Index ..................................................................................................... 681
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Top 5 Global Household Savings Strategies by Region .............................................................................. 682
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Rising Consumer Prices are Hurting Global Demand .................................................................................. 682
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Global Home Prices Are Rolling Over .......................................................................................................... 683
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Real Domestic Demand US, Japan & EU ................................................................................................. 684
GLOBAL CREDIT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 685
CREDIT CYCLE - HG Spread Widening ..................................................................................................................................................... 685
CREDIT CYCLE - Widening Gap Between Debt & Equity .......................................................................................................................... 685
CREDIT CYCLE - HY Leading the Way ...................................................................................................................................................... 685
GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 689
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 689
CHART Global Employment Rates ........................................................................................................................................................... 689
CHART Global Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................. 690
CHART Global Unemployment EU Comparison ................................................................................................................................... 690
CHART Unemployment in Advanced Countries ....................................................................................................................................... 691
CHART Global Labor Participation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 691
CHART Global Youth Unemployment By Country ................................................................................................................................ 692
CHART Global Chance of Finding a Job Within Year .............................................................................................................................. 692
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 693
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Beginnings of the Welfare Myth Unwind ............................................................................................. 693
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Unsustainable Welfare Myth ............................................................................................................... 695
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - Global Financial Sector Job Cuts ............................................................................................................... 697
GLOBAL SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 699
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 699
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Economic Momentum Cycle Shows Cycle Turn to Be Expected............................................................ 699
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Up in Europe in Q2 But Flat to Down Globally ................................................... 700
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Down -1 from Q1 2015 ....................................................................................... 701
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Biggest & Second Biggest Concerns in the Next Six Months By Country ...................................................... 702
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Differing Concerns Around the World By Region ............................................................................................ 703
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Growing Recessionary Sentiment ....................................................................................................................... 704
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Latin America Falls Deeper Into A Recessionary Mindset ................................................................................. 705
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Down In Q4 2014 ................................................................................................ 706
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .......................................................................................................... 707
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Improves the Most in North America .................................................................. 708
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Recessionary Sentiment Increases in Latin America ......................................................................................... 709
GLOBAL SENTIMENT North America Reports Strong Increase Y-o-Y for all Confidence Indicators .................................................... 710
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 63% of European Markets ....................................................................... 711
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Asia Pacific Markets .................................................................... 712
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Latin America Markets ................................................................. 713
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Falls ...................................................................................... 714
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence High in Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................................................................... 715
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Activity Future Expectations .................................................................................................... 716
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Jog Prospects Reach 50% - First Time In 7 Years ................................................................................. 716
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .......................................................................................................... 718
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Trends by Country .............................................................................................. 719
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Northern American Spending Intentions Rise According to Nielsen .................................................................. 720
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 721
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows ........................................................................ 721
MARCH 2016 Edition

7

GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 723
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................... 727
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 728
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 730
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 731
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................. 742
GLOBAL MACRO: MONETARY POLICY & CENTRAL BANKING .......................................................................................... 745

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKING ............................................................................................................................................................................ 745
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED Global Banking Risk .................................................................................................................................... 745
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 748
NEW-CHARTS Debt of Advanced Economies Higher as %of GDP then After WWI and WWII ............................................................. 748
NEW-CHARTS Global Debt to GDP Growth 1994 to 2014 .................................................................................................................. 749
NEW-CHARTS Central Bank Balance Sheet Growth as Percentage of Nominal GDP .......................................................................... 749
NEW-CHARTS Central Bank Key Policy Rates ....................................................................................................................................... 750
NEW-CHARTS Central Bank Pack Seen to be Needed to Spur Inflation ............................................................................................. 750
NEW-CHARTS Global Banking Profits after Tax ..................................................................................................................................... 750
NEW-CHARTS Global Stock of Debt Outstanding by Type ..................................................................................................................... 751
NEW-CHARTS Total Public Debt Outstanding by 2017 Forecasts for Currency Cartel .................................................................... 752
CHARTS Saudi + China Reserves versus 10Y UST Yield ...................................................................................................................... 752
CHARTS Total World Reserve Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................. 753
CHARTS Why Canada May Become a Problem For Janet Yellen .......................................................................................................... 754
CHARTS Consensus Fed and ECB Rate Hike Projections ..................................................................................................................... 755
CHARTS Global Monetary Policy Stance & Bias ..................................................................................................................................... 756
CHARTS Global Government Bonds Trading With Negative Yields........................................................................................................ 757
CHARTS Lack of Inflation in Europe ........................................................................................................................................................ 757
CHARTS Two Sides of Inflation Commodities, Inflation Breakevens and UST Curve (5-30s)............................................................. 758
CHARTS Quantitative e Easing No Longer Drives Commodity Prices .................................................................................................... 759
CHARTS De-Leveraging Average Industrial Debt-Percentage of GDP ................................................................................................ 759
CHARTS Sovereign Net Issuance After Central Bank Issuances ........................................................................................................ 760
CHARTS Sovereign Net Issuance After Central Bank Issuances ........................................................................................................ 760
CHARTS Falling Global Bond Rates Continue in Q1 2015 ...................................................................................................................... 761
CHARTS The Road to NIR (Negative Rates) ........................................................................................................................................... 761
CHARTS Central Bank Policy Rates ........................................................................................................................................................ 762
CHARTS Days of Chinese Credit-Driven Growth are numbered ............................................................................................................. 762
CHARTS Major Central Bank Assets versus GDP Forecast ................................................................................................................... 764
CHARTS Major Central Bank Y-o-Y Balance Sheet Growth ................................................................................................................... 764
CHARTS Cumulative Change in Central Bank Balance Sheets Since 2008 ........................................................................................ 765
CHARTS Global Central Bank Assets versus World Equity Prices ......................................................................................................... 765
CHARTS Cumulative Change in Central Bank Balance Sheets Since 2000 ........................................................................................ 766
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 767
NEW-CENTRAL BANKS - How We Got Here: The Fed Warned Itself In 1979, Then Spent Four Decades Intentionally Avoiding The
Topic ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 767
CENTRAL BANKS - 8 Capital Markets 'Threats' To The Central Bank Narrative ...................................................................................... 771
CENTRAL BANKS - How Much More Faith In Central Banks Is Left? ....................................................................................................... 773
CENTRAL BANKS - The $100 Trillion Global Debt Ponzi Scheme ............................................................................................................ 775
CENTRAL BANKS - The Backstop of Modern Finance Is About to Implode .............................................................................................. 776
CENTRAL BANKS - What does NIRP Tell US About Global Risk of Deflation? ........................................................................................ 777
CENTRAL BANKS - In Denmark You Are Now Paid To Take Out A Mortgage ......................................................................................... 780
CENTRAL BANKS - The Beginning of the End of the $100 TRILLION Bond Bubble ................................................................................ 781
CENTRAL BANKS - The $100 Trillion Reason Why Central Banks Are Terrified of Debt Deflation .......................................................... 783
CENTRAL BANKS - The year of Dollar Danger for the world ..................................................................................................................... 785
CENTRAL BANKS - Commodities, Inflation Breakevens and Yield Curve Sending Clear Warnings ........................................................ 790
CENTRAL BANKS Economic policies are diverging in the developed world as deflation looms ............................................................ 794
CENTRAL BANKS Central banks can't raise growth potential, says ECB's Weidmann ......................................................................... 796
CENTRAL BANKS Axel Merks 2014 Outlook.......................................................................................................................................... 797
CENTRAL BANKS - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries ..................................................................... 800
CENTRAL BANKS - Austerity Now Officially Dead Public Policy ............................................................................................................... 801
CENTRAL BANKS - A Serious Shortage of Quality Collateral - A $10T US Problem Over 10 Years ....................................................... 802
CENTRAL BANKS - Global Balance Sheet Expansion ............................................................................................................................... 804
WAR ON CASH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 809
WAR ON CASH Elliott Waves Report on the War on Cash .................................................................................................................. 809
WAR ON CASH The "War On Cash" Migrates To Switzerland ............................................................................................................... 814
WAR ON CASH Chase Joins the War on Cash ....................................................................................................................................... 817
WAR ON CASH Largest Bank In America Joins War On Cash ............................................................................................................... 819
WAR ON CASH Citigroup's Gold "Expert" Demands A Cash Ban .......................................................................................................... 821
SWISS PEG ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 825
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure First Central Bank To Lose Control .................................................................................................... 826
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure The Financial System Broke Last Week ............................................................................................ 828
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure Keynesian Contral Banking is Destroying Money & Markets ............................................................ 829
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 833
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Insider Says Central Banks Making it Up as They Go! ....................................................................... 833
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS 2007 Redux: Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher in the advanced economies ........ 834
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Polish Pension Confiscation: Coming to a Theater near You .......................................................... 837
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Global Tax Overhaul ............................................................................................................................ 839
BOE - UK ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 840
MARCH 2016 Edition

8

CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 840

UK Sterling/ US Dollar Exchange Rate after UK Super Thursday ......................................................................................................... 840
UK Dissent within BOE Set to Continue ................................................................................................................................................... 840
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 841
UK - Neutral Report Leaves BOE on Track for February Liftoff .................................................................................................................. 841
UK - Did The Bank Of England Just Admit Financial Markets Aren't "Real"? ............................................................................................. 843
UK - BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................................... 844
UK - Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" ................................................................................................................................... 845
FED - US ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 847
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 848
NEW-CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Trend Changes versus S&P 500 .................................................................................................... 848
NEW-CHARTS Fed May Potentially Hike Rates When Liquidity Conditions Are Negative ..................................................................... 848
NEW-CHARTS Fed Tightening Periods versus US and World GDP Growth .......................................................................................... 849
NEW-CHARTS Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Trend Changes ........................................................................................................... 849
NEW-CHARTS Long Term Rates Fell in the Last Tightening Cycle ........................................................................................................ 850
NEW-CHARTS Markets have been Pricing in a Fed Rate Liftoff Since 2009 ......................................................................................... 850
NEW-CHARTS Long Term Trend of 10Y UST ......................................................................................................................................... 850
NEW-CHARTS Likely Policy Support Levels by the Federal Reserve for a Falling S&P ........................................................................ 851
CHARTS Inflation Expectations versus Fed QE Easing Operations ....................................................................................................... 852
CHARTS Depth of US Treasury Markets Has Declined from Recent Highs ........................................................................................... 852
CHARTS China Dumping US Treasuries as Chinese Forex Reserves Fall ............................................................................................ 853
CHARTS US Defenses Down ................................................................................................................................................................... 854
CHARTS September Rate Hike Forecast History .................................................................................................................................... 855
CHARTS Only One Thing Can Stop the Fed from a September Rate Hike Emerging Market Weakness .......................................... 855
CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields .......................................................................................................................... 856
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 856
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish....................................................................................................................................... 856
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ......................................................................................................................... 857
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 858
US MONETARY Why We Have Low Level Equilibria............................................................................................................................ 858
US MONETARY Crashing Inflation Expectations Suggest Imminent Launch Of QE4 ............................................................................. 860
US MONETARY Why Goldman Is Confident the Fed Will Wait To Hike Until December (At Least) ...................................................... 861
US MONETARY Forget Rate Hikes: Bridgewater Says QE4 Is Next; Warns World Is Approaching End of Debt Supercycle .............. 863
US MONETARY What Options Are Saying About A Possible September Rate Hike ............................................................................. 864
US MONETARY The Fed Is Scared To Raise Rates, Ron Paul Warns "Everything Is Too Vulnerable" ................................................ 866
US MONETARY Hilsenrath Warns Fed Is Out Of Ammo, "Policy Makers Resorting To Backup, Backup Plans" .................................. 867
US MONETARY China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ................................................................. 869
US MONETARY Fed Goes Looking For Evidence of Broken Treasury Market, Decides Everything Is Fine ......................................... 874
US MONETARY The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here" Art Cashin Predicts ................................................................ 879
US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed ....................................................... 879
US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony ................................................................................................................................ 882
US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy .......................................................................... 891
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory .................................................................... 894
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery................................................................................ 897
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap ....................................................................................................................................... 900
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) .................................................................. 902
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail......................................................................................................................... 904
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession ................................................................................. 910
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements .................................................................................................................. 911
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will............................................. 913
US MONETARY - Debt Increases $1 Trillion in One Year .......................................................................................................................... 915
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS The Road Ahead ......................................................................................................................................................... 918
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 918
JAPAN Japan Heads Back towards Deflation .......................................................................................................................................... 918
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics -I ............................................................................................................................................... 919
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics II ............................................................................................................................................. 920
JAPAN Japanese Households Remain Pessimistic ................................................................................................................................. 921
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 922
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - Japan Shocked To Find Abenomics Is Destroying Its Middle Class ................................................................. 922
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game............................................................ 924
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Expansion Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started ........................................................................ 925
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Policy Below the Event Horizon ................................................................................................... 928
BOJ JAPAN ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 930
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 930
JAPAN Japans Inflation Pressure Ebbs Away......................................................................................................................................... 930
JAPAN BOJ QE Expansion In Context Debt Monetization ................................................................................................................... 931
JAPAN Japanese Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................................. 932
JAPAN Japanese Real & Nominal Household Income ............................................................................................................................ 932
JAPAN CPI Shoots To 3.3% Y-o-Y .......................................................................................................................................................... 933
JAPAN Japan Government Investment Fund Asset Reallocation ..................................................................................................... 933
JAPAN Falling Real Rates as Financial Repression Takes Hold ....................................................................................................... 933
JAPAN Real Wages Plummet as Financial Repression Takes Hold ....................................................................................................... 934
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 935
JAPAN - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ...................................................................................... 936
JAPAN - How a Limo Ride With Paul Krugman Changed the Course of Abenomics ................................................................................. 938
JAPAN - Kurodas Former Boss Urges Ditching of BOJ 2% Inflation Target .............................................................................................. 941
MARCH 2016 Edition

9

JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ........................................................................................................................... 943
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years....................................................................................................................................... 944
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ................................................................................................... 947
JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ..................................................................................................................................... 949
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis .................................................................................................................................................. 950
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ....................................................................... 955
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ..................................................................................................................................... 956
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" .................................................................................. 959
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ......................................................................................................................... 960
PBOC CHINA ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 962
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 962
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Debt at 282% of GDP in 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 962
NEW-CHARTS Change in Chinese Bank Assets Since Q4 2008 Compared to Big 4 Central Banks .................................................... 963
CHARTS Chinas Capital Inflow / Outflow ................................................................................................................................................ 963
CHARTS Chinas Falling Holdings of US Treasuries ............................................................................................................................... 964
CHARTS Cumulative % Increases in Pork Since the Start of the Cycle .................................................................................................. 964
CHARTS Severe Supply of Food Staple - Pork ....................................................................................................................................... 965
CHARTS Chinese CPI (Minus Pork) ........................................................................................................................................................ 966
CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ......................................................................... 966
CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio ........................................................................................................................................ 966
CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ........................................................................................... 967
CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth ........................................................................................................................ 969
CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ..................................................................................................................... 969
CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble ........................................................................................ 970
CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts .............................................................................................................................................. 970
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 971
CHINA MONETARY - Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasuries In The Past Two Week .............................. 971
CHINA MONETARY - China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ........................................................... 973
CHINA MONETARY - Confusion Reigns At PBoC As Multi-Trillion Yuan Bailout Threatens To Undermine Rate Cuts ........................... 978
CHINA MONETARY - China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says ...................................... 984
CHINA MONETARY Is China Beginning to Panic as it Lowers Reserve Ratio ....................................................................................... 986
CHINA MONETARY - Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nears .................................................................................................. 988
ECB EU ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 994
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 994
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 995
CHARTS EU QE Results An Abject Failure .......................................................................................................................................... 995
CHARTS Welcome to the EUs NIRP .................................................................................................................................................... 995
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ......................................................................................................................................... 996
CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ......................................................................................................................................... 996
CHARTS UK & German Total Return Indices .......................................................................................................................................... 997
CHARTS ECBs Dilemma of Digging Up Enough Debt ............................................................................................................................ 997
CHARTS Nearly $2T European Nonds Trading With Negative Yields .................................................................................................... 998
CHARTS Total National Debt Germany versus Industrial Country Average (ex-Germany) ................................................................. 998
CHARTS The Fastest Growing Asset Class NIR Products ................................................................................................................... 999
CHARTS Euro-Area Output Still Slightly Below Pre-Crisis Levels ......................................................................................................... 1000
CHARTS 5 Year Inflation Swaps Suggests Deflation in the EU ............................................................................................................ 1001
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Rate on the Decline Since 2011 .............................................................................................................. 1001
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Expectations Decline ............................................................................................................................... 1002
CHARTS Euro-Area Private Sector Loan Creation ................................................................................................................................ 1003
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth .................................................................................................... 1003
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields ................................................................................................................................ 1004
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot .......................................................................................................................... 1004
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................. 1005
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................... 1006
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................. 1006
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 ............................................................................................................ 1007
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................. 1008
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1009
EU MONETARY - Draghi Failed: European Inflation Expectations Slide To Pre-QE Level ..................................................................... 1010
EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 1011
EU MONETARY - NIRP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1013
EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ........................................................................................................ 1017
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements ................................................................................................................................................ 1020
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................. 1021
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action .................................................................................... 1023
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ......................................................................................................... 1025
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down .......................................................................... 1027
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ................................................................................................................................................................... 1029
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1029
NEW-CHARTS US 5Y5Y Forward Swap ................................................................................................................................................... 1029
CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ...................................................................................................................... 1029
CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................................. 1030
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ....................................................................................................................... 1031
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 1031
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ..................................................................................................................................... 1031
MARCH 2016 Edition

10

CHARTS Developed Country Inflation Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 1033

RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1034
INFLATION Martin Armstrongs Explanation of Monetary Inflation ........................................................................................................ 1034
INFLATION - Asset & Property inflation means shops have to pay higher rents with higher product prices ........................................... 1036
GEO-ECONOMIC INSTABILITIES......................................................................................................................................... 1038

GEO-ECONOMIC INDEX .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1038
GEO-ECONOMICS OF ENERGY & PETRO$ - Petro$$ Coming Unglued ........................................................................................................ 1039
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1039
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1042
NEW-ENERGY Islamic versus Qatar-Turkey Pipeline ........................................................................................................................... 1042
NEW-ENERGY Sunni versus Shiite In the Middle East ......................................................................................................................... 1043
NEW-ENERGY The Iranian Encirclement Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 1043
NEW-ENERGY Drowning in Oil Over Supply ......................................................................................................................................... 1045
NEW-ENERGY Rig Count Down But Not Production ............................................................................................................................ 1045
ENERGY Saudi Crude Oil Production & Brent Price ............................................................................................................................. 1047
ENERGY World Liquids Percent of Production ...................................................................................................................................... 1047
ENERGY Interest Rates & Oil Prices in 2015 Dollars ............................................................................................................................ 1047
ENERGY Oil Production and CAPEX by Operating Environment 2014 ................................................................................................ 1048
ENERGY Global Drilling Intensity Will Increase ..................................................................................................................................... 1048
ENERGY Most US shale play costs are below $80 a barrel Challenged when approaching $60 .................................................... 1049
ENERGY Breakeven for All Global Oil Projects ..................................................................................................................................... 1050
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1051
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1052
ENERGY Petro$$ Capital Exports Go Negative for First Time in 18 Years .......................................................................................... 1053
ENERGY Falling Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices .............................................................................................................................. 1054
ENERGY US v Saudi Oil Production now Equal at near 12B bl/Day ..................................................................................................... 1055
ENERGY US Shale Oil Breakeven Prices .............................................................................................................................................. 1057
ENERGY OPEC Announcement Crushes Ruble & WTI Crude ............................................................................................................. 1057
ENERGY USDRUB Rise Means Russian Loans in US$ In Big Trouble- Investment Collapse ............................................................ 1058
ENERGY EM Oil Producers Being Crushed .......................................................................................................................................... 1058
ENERGY Market Cap Impacts of OPEC Decision ................................................................................................................................. 1059
ENERGY Oil Supply / Demand and Price .............................................................................................................................................. 1060
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1061
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN-Iran, Saudi Arabia "Clash" Over Syria At "Secret", Closed-Door Meeting In Davos ............................................. 1061
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN- Another Petro-State Throws In The Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin ........................................... 1063
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN- Mainstream Media Finally Admits Syrian Conflict Is US-Russia Proxy War ......................................... 1065
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN- Russia and Iran Moving To Corner The Mideast Oil Supply ................................................................................ 1070
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN- Migrant Crisis & Syria War Fueled By Competing Gas Pipelines ............................................................ 1073
RUSSIA- Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead .................................................... 1078
RUSSIA- OPEC Presents: QE4 And Deflation ...................................................................................................................................... 1081
RUSSIA Energy War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1083
PETRODOLLAR The Saudis And US Collusion Behind the Falling Oil Prices ....................................................................... 1086
PETRODOLLAR Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War? ............................................................................ 1090
PETRODOLLAR "There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Ignites Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis ........................... 1095
PETRODOLLAR Collapsing PetroDollar Foundation ......................................................................................................................... 1101
UKRAINE - Pulled between EU v Russia .............................................................................................................................................. 1105
UKRAINE - Pulled between An Ethnic Eastern and Western Ukraine .................................................................................................. 1105
UKRAINE - Pulled between Economic Inequality Factors ..................................................................................................................... 1106
UKRAINE - Pulled between the Global Military Balance ....................................................................................................................... 1107
UKRAINE - Pulled by Global Financial Markets .................................................................................................................................... 1108
UKRAINE - A Deep State Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 1111
ENERGY China Uses Crude Drop to Build Strategic Oil Reserve ..................................................................................................... 1115
ENERGY - The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15% ............................................................... 1116
ENERGY - Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield .................................................... 1117
ENERGY - The Oil Price Decline ........................................................................................................................................................... 1119
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 2................................................................................................................................. 1126
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1 ......................................................................................................................... 1128
ENERGY - OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation .................................................................................................................................... 1131
ENERGY - The Sellside Chimes In On The Crude Crush: "This Will Reverberate For Years" ............................................. 1136
ENERGY - OPEC Decision "Major Strike Against", Russian Tycoon Says Shale Oil Doesnt Work < $80bl ................................... 1137
ENERGY - Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat ................................................................................................................................. 1139
ENERGY - World's Largest Rig Operator, The "Recovery" Is Now Worse Than The Post-Lehman Crash ......................................... 1142
ENERGY - US "Secret" Deal with Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First ....................................................... 1145
ENERGY - The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained ............................................................................................................................. 1149
ENERGY - Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak ............................................................................... 1154
ENERGY - Major Inflection Point Coming Near-Term In Energy Prices ............................................................................................... 1161
ENERGY - Russia Prepares Mega-Deal with India after Locking Up China With "Holy Grail" Gas Deal ............................................. 1164
ENERGY - Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China ........................................................................................ 1166
ENERGY - The Growing Rift with Saudi Arabia Threatens To Severely Damage the Petrodollar ....................................................... 1168
EMERGING & FRONTIER MARKETS - Emerging Markets Growth, Credit & Forex Problems - Fx Plummet ................................................ 1173
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1177
NEW-CHARTS MSCI Emerging Markets Start to Year % - Worst Ever ................................................................................................ 1177
NEW-CHARTS FX markets are collapsing as traders are betting policy makers will not continue defending exchange rates ............ 1177
MARCH 2016 Edition

11

NEW-CHARTS Premium investors demand to hold EM debt over U.S. Treasuries widened to 481 .................................................... 1178
NEW-CHARTS Capital Controls Arrive In Emerging Markets China & Azerbiajan ............................................................................ 1178
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Outstanding in US Dollars Increased $17.7T Since 2006 ........................................................................... 1179
NEW-CHARTS EM Credit Has Expanded Dramatically Compared to Developed Markets .................................................................. 1180
CHARTS Emerging Market 10 Year Shift in Share of World GDP 2004 to 2014 ............................................................................... 1181
CHARTS Emerging Market Fx in Freefall ............................................................................................................................................... 1181
CHARTS Total Economy Debt as a % of GDP India, Poland, Ireland and Spain .............................................................................. 1181
CHARTS Global FX Reserves 2000 versus 2005 versus 2015 .......................................................................................................... 1182
CHARTS GDP per Capita Income .......................................................................................................................................................... 1183
CHARTS EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 .................................................................................... 1184
CHARTS Brazil in or Near a Serious Recession .................................................................................................................................... 1184
CHARTS Collapsing Currencies in Columbia and Chile ......................................................................................................................... 1185
CHARTS The Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................................................ 1186
CHARTS The Tale of Two Economies Chile versus Portugal ............................................................................................................ 1187
CHARTS Emerging & Developed Economy Growth Rates Converge ................................................................................................... 1188
CHARTS Emerging Market Currency Sell-Off ........................................................................................................................................ 1188
CHARTS Emerging Markets Stocks versus Developed Market Stocks ................................................................................................. 1189
CHARTS Investors Are Pulling Money From Developing Markets ........................................................................................................ 1190
CHARTS Valuation of EM Stocks is Falling Against Developed Markets .............................................................................................. 1190
CHARTS EM Capital Outflows Surge Towards $1T .............................................................................................................................. 1191
CHARTS Developing Nation Currencies Plunge After Chinas Devaluation Rattles Markets ............................................................... 1191
CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ........................................................................... 1193
CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ................................................................................................................. 1194
CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 ............................................................................................................................ 1195
CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes .................................................................................................................... 1195
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth ........................................................................................................ 1196
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ............................................................................................................................... 1196
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ...................................................................................................................................... 1197
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions ................................................ 1197
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows...................................................................................................................................................... 1198
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................. 1198
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 .................................................................................................... 1199
CHARTS Total GEM Flows..................................................................................................................................................................... 1199
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................. 1200
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1201
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls ..................................................................... 1201
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - For Emerging Markets, It Is Now Worse Than the Asian Financial Crisis ............................................. 1202
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Be Very Afraid: "The 3 EM Debacles" Loom, HSBC Warns .................................................................. 1205
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says ............................................................................. 1208
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse .............................. 1210
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ................................................................................................. 1216
EMERGING MARKETS - Lost Decade in Emerging Markets: Investors Already Halfway There ............................................................ 1223
EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ..................................................................................... 1228
EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .............................................................. 1231
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ......................................................................................................... 1233
EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs ...................................................................................................... 1238
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................. 1239
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ................................................................................................................................................... 1240
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ....................................................................................................................................... 1245
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!........................................................................................................................................................... 1247
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1248
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1250
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1251
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1257
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1262
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1266
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1269
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction ............................................................................................................................................. 1272
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1273
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserves Have Fallen Steadily Since the Completion of US TAPER ............................................ 1273
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserve Total and Monthly Change ................................................................................................ 1273
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1274
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1276
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1276
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1277
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1277
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1278
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1278
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1279
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1280
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1280
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1281
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1281
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1282
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1283
MARCH 2016 Edition

12

CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1283

RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1285
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Injects Massive $60 Billion Liquidity - Most In 3 Years; China Stocks, Yuan Drop ............................ 1285
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - "China 2016 Is US 2008" Felix Zulauf Warns "The Outcome of A Major Yuan Devaluation Would Be
Disastrous" ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1287
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - Pressures on the Yuan Held in Check by Reserve Currency Depletion ........................................................ 1291
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Hugh Hendry - Why China's Biggest Bear, Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls ........................................................ 1293
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Three Reasons China May Cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio ............................................................................ 1297
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Reverses Direction and Begins Easing .................................................................................................................... 1299
CHINA LIQUIDITY - One Rate Cut Probably Not Sufficient to Sustain China's Growth ........................................................................... 1300
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Troubling Signs of Deflation in China ....................................................................................................................... 1301
CHINA LIQUIDITY - The Next Phase of Chinas Financial Deepening .................................................................................................... 1303
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Steady decline in private sector activity ................................................................................................................... 1304
CHINA LIQUIDITY - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ............................................................................. 1305
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems .............................................................................................. 1308
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Housing Bubble Restricting PBOC Actions ........................................................................................................ 1310
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Squeezing Banks towards Reducing Speculative Risk .......................................................................... 1313
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Overnight Repo at 25% .......................................................................................................................................... 1314
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Red Flags ................................................................................................................................................................. 1315
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Credit Fueled Growth ............................................................................................................................................... 1318
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................................... 1323
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Wants to Hold the Line on Explosive Credit Expansion through A Liquidity Squeeze ...................... 1326
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Potentially De-Stabilizing Cash Crunch ............................................................................................................... 1328
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged .................................................................................................................... 1329
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1331
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1331
NEW-CURRENCY WARS Falling US$ PEGS of Oil Exporter Nations ................................................................................................. 1331
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1331
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Square Holes and Currency Pegs ................................................................................................................ 1331
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Pegs under pressure - Currency pegs are still in fashion, but some are creaking ...................................... 1335
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Another Petro-State Throws In the Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin .................................... 1338
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - A Currency War That Few Economists And Analysts Notice, Much Less Understand ............................... 1339
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift............................................................................................................................................................... 1343
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents ................................................................................................................................................. 1348
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ......................................................................................................................................................... 1349
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1351
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1351
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1353
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1354
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1354
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1354
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1355
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1356
PRIOR REPORT UPDATES & EDITIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 1357
US$ RESERVE STATUS & ERODING INFLUENCE.......................................................................................................................................... 1357
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED DE=DOLLARIZATION ............................................................................................................................ 1357
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1361
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Countries that have joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............................................... 1361
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIBs Founding Members ................................................................................................................................... 1361
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Asias Infrastructure Legs & the AIIBs Expected Capital Structure ................................................................... 1362
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIB Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................................................................. 1363
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The Rise & Fall of Modern Empires .................................................................................................................... 1363
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1365
DE-DOLLARIZATION - U.S. Looks to Work with China-Led Infrastructure Fund..................................................................................... 1365
DE-DOLLARIZATION - US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead ....................................................................................... 1369
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) with its Own SDRs Is Coming ....................................................... 1371
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China Takes Aim At Dollar Reserve Status: Promotes Yuan In Investment Bank ............................................. 1373
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Kazakhstan Authorities Announce Plans To De-Dollarize Economy .................................................................. 1375
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China to urge firms to sell bonds overseas to fund new Silk Road to Europe .................................................... 1377
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is This The Most Important Chart For The Future Of The World's Reserve Currency? ..................................... 1377
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is Russia Planning A Gold-Based Currency? ..................................................................................................... 1381
DE-DOLLARIZATION - De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities .................................... 1383
DE-DOLLARIZATION - What if China, Russia Succeed in Going off the Dollar?..................................................................................... 1384
RESERVE CURRENCY - Asian Infrastructure Investment bank challenges U.S. supremacy ................................................................ 1385
RESERVE CURRENCY - March the moment the US lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.......................... 1387
RESERVE CURRENCY - - It just happened: The moment the United States lost its role . . . ............................................................... 1389
RESERVE CURRENCY - The World Is Beginning To Bypass America's Financial & Legally-Leveraged Political Power ..................... 1390
RESERVE CURRENCY - Putin Adviser Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance ................................................................................................. 1391
RESERVE CURRENCY - Chinese, Swiss Central Banks Sign Bilateral Swap Agreement ..................................................................... 1392
RESERVE CURRENCY - France, Brazil, India & Now South Korea Join Russia & China In Post-Dollar World Order .......................... 1393
RESERVE CURRENCY - Frances Noyer Says BNP May Prompt Shift Away From Dollar .................................................................... 1396
RESERVE CURRENCY - More Russian Companies Set To Drop Dollar, Switch To Chinese Yuan ...................................................... 1397
RESERVE CURRENCY - Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar ................................................................................................ 1399
RESERVE CURRENCY - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries .................................................... 1400
MARCH 2016 Edition

13

GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies......................................................................................... 1402
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1404
GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1404
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1404
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1406
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1406
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1407
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1407
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1408
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1410
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1410
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1411
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1414
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1416
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1418
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1421
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1421
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1423
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1425
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption...................................................................................................................................... 1426
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1426
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1427
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1427
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1427
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1428
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1428
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1429
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1430
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1430
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1432
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1433
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1434
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1435
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1435
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1437
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1438
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1439
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1439
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1440
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1440
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1441
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1441
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1442
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1442
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1445
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1446
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1448
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1451
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1454
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1455
REGIONAL ........................................................................................................................................... 1456

EU ONCE UNORTHODOX NEGATIVE RATES NOW INCREASINGLY ORTHODOX!........................................................ 1457
EU......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1457
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1460
NEW-CHARTS Negative Interest Rates on 40% of Outstanding European Government Bonds ......................................................... 1460
NEW-CHARTS Once Unorthodox Negative Rates Now Increasingly Orthodox ................................................................................... 1460
NEW-CHARTS EU Savings Rates Surge in Countries With NIRP ........................................................................................................ 1461
NEW-CHARTS 1 Million Syrian Refugee Arrivals By Land & Sea in 2015 ............................................................................................ 1461
NEW-CHARTS Main Migrant Route to Germany ................................................................................................................................... 1462
NEW-CHARTS Alternative Migrant Route to Europe ............................................................................................................................. 1463
CHARTS Many Migrant Routes Being Taken ........................................................................................................................................ 1464
CHARTS Many Migrant Routes Being Taken- Air, Land and Sea ......................................................................................................... 1465
CHARTS Migrants Entering Hungary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1466
CHARTS Schengen Non Shengen EU Countries ............................................................................................................................... 1467
CHARTS Schengen Non Shengen EU Countries-2 ............................................................................................................................ 1467
CHARTS Migrant Detentions .................................................................................................................................................................. 1468
CHARTS German Asylum Applications ............................................................................................................................................... 1469
CHARTS Euro Area and EU28 Unemployment Rates ........................................................................................................................... 1470
CHARTS Unemployment Rates by Country Seasonally Adjusted ...................................................................................................... 1471
CHARTS Inflation Tracks Commodity Prices .......................................................................................................................................... 1471
MARCH 2016 Edition

14

CHARTS Tracing EU Dis-Inflation towards Deflation .............................................................................................................................. 1472

CHARTS Bond Rout Reduces Negative Yielding Govt Debt by ~1T Euros ......................................................................................... 1474
CHARTS Eurozone GDP Since 1999 ..................................................................................................................................................... 1474
CHARTS "Real GDP in the Euro area is lagging behind other major economies since the...Crisis" .................................................... 1475
CHARTS "European firms are paying out more of their earnings as dividends than US firms are." ..................................................... 1476
CHARTS "Over 1/2 of all government bonds yield less than 1%." ......................................................................................................... 1477
CHARTS A weaker Euro has been good for the STOXX 600 ................................................................................................................ 1478
CHARTS Eurozone equity inflows continue to rise ................................................................................................................................ 1479
CHARTS YTD flows into European equity funds ................................................................................................................................... 1479
CHARTS 3 Mo EURIBOR Drops to -0.001% - Below Zero for First Time? ........................................................................................... 1479
CHARTS Negative Yields Have Become the New Norm in the Euro area .......................................................................................... 1480
CHARTS "Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield" ............................................................... 1480
CHARTS Feb Retail Sales Y-o-Y +3.0% versus 2.8% est. .................................................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS Draghi Had To Deliver or it would have been a Collateral Massacre..................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS EU Disconnect Between Equity Prices & Earnings and Dividends ........................................................................................ 1482
CHARTS Eurozone is the Biggest Drag on Global Profits ..................................................................................................................... 1482
CHARTS Eurozone Government & Private Debt 276% of GDP (Excluding Financials) ....................................................................... 1483
CHARTS EU PMIS Rolling Over ............................................................................................................................................................ 1484
CHARTS Eurozone Banks Too Big To Be Bailed Out! .......................................................................................................................... 1485
CHARTS Eurozone Area Consumer Confidence May Be Misleading ................................................................................................... 1486
CHARTS Eurozone GDP & Recession Pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 1486
CHARTS EU-Area PMI Shows Sustained Deterioration ........................................................................................................................ 1487
th
CHARTS Euro Area CPI Seen Below 1% for 11 Month ....................................................................................................................... 1487
CHARTS Euro Area Domestic Demand has lagged US & Japan by 9% since 2010 ............................................................................ 1488
CHARTS Euro Area Inflation Levels ....................................................................................................................................................... 1489
CHARTS Geo-Political Tensions May Weigh on Confidence ................................................................................................................ 1490
CHARTS Stalling Euro-Area Recovery Heightens ECB QE Pressure ................................................................................................... 1490
CHARTS Industrial Production Slows In Line With PMIs ....................................................................................................................... 1491
CHARTS ZEW Expectations Signals Slowdown Ahead ........................................................................................................................ 1492
CHARTS Euro-Area July PMI ................................................................................................................................................................. 1492
CHARTS Corporate Borrowing Spreads Remain Wide ......................................................................................................................... 1493
CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ............................................................................................................................... 1493
CHARTS EU Financial Conditions Deteriorating .................................................................................................................................... 1494
CHARTS EU Confidence ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1495
CHARTS - Slow Money Growth May Stoke Deflation Concerns .............................................................................................................. 1496
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation at Lowest Level Since 2009 Individual Countries ................................................................................. 1497
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation Aggregate .............................................................................................................................................. 1497
CHARTS - 10M Part-Time Workers Underemployed in EU ...................................................................................................................... 1498
CHARTS - Euro-Area Housing Prices Decline .......................................................................................................................................... 1499
CHARTS - Euro-Area Trade Surplus ......................................................................................................................................................... 1500
CHARTS - Euro-Area Composite PMI ....................................................................................................................................................... 1501
CHARTS - EU Area Weakness ................................................................................................................................................................. 1502
CHARTS - EU Area GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1503
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1504
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1505
CHARTS - EU Real Rates ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1506
CHARTS - EU -NON Euro Members GDP RELIANCE ............................................................................................................................. 1507
CHARTS - EU GLOBAL GDP GROWTH CONTRIBUTION ..................................................................................................................... 1508
CHARTS - EU PMI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1508
CHARTS - EU CPI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1510
CHARTS - Regional Risk-Reward ............................................................................................................................................................. 1511
CHARTS - Europe's "Core" Problem is France .................................................................................................................................... 1512
CHARTS - Germany's Preoccupation with Inflation is More Than It Would Seem ........................................................................... 1515
CHARTS - Evidence OF Global Slowing Now Indisputable ................................................................................................................. 1516
CHARTS - EU Credit Downgrades, France and UK On Tap ................................................................................................................... 1518
CHARTS - Perceived Reduction in Risk, A Temporary Aberration ........................................................................................................... 1520
CHARTS - Dangerous Delusional Divergences .................................................................................................................................... 1522
CHARTS - IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS ............................................................................................................................... 1523
CHARTS - Air Cargo Shipments Confirm Slowing Global Growth ............................................................................................................ 1524
CHARTS - Eurozone Misery Indices Never Been Higher ..................................................................................................................... 1525
CHARTS - Euro Currency .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1527
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1533
RESEARCH Migrant Crisis Sparks Balkan Border Battles As EU Buckles Under Overwhelming Refugee Flow ................................ 1533
RESEARCH Buiter: Migrant Crisis "May Signal The Beginning Of The End" For EU ........................................................................... 1537
RESEARCH "The End of The EU": Merkel's "Heroic" Refugee Response May Destroy Union, Slovakia Warns ................................ 1538
RESEARCH Europe's Refugee Crisis "Out of Control", Hungary PM Rages "This Is A German Problem, Not An EU Problem" ....... 1545
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ................................................................................................................................... 1548
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................. 1550
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble ............................................................................ 1551
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP............................................................................................................ 1553
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case .............................................................................. 1553
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision .......................................................................................................................................................... 1555
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................. 1558
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................. 1559
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate.................................................................................................................................. 1561
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ........................................................................... 1563
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ......................................................................................................................................................... 1565
MARCH 2016 Edition

15

RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems .................................................................................... 1566

RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets ...................................................................... 1568
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ............................................................................................................................................... 1570
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ...................................................................................................... 1571
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece .............................................................. 1574
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1576
PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ..................................................................................................................... 1576
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ...................................................................................................................................... 1580
PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees. ................. 1582
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ................................................................................................... 1588
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ............................................................................................................... 1592
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ....................................................................................................... 1595
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent ....................................................................................... 1596
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities" ........................................................................................ 1597
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................. 1604
UK WHAT DOES BREXIT MEAN TO THE UK? .............................................................................................................................................. 1606
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1606
NEW-CHARTS - UK Brexit Polls ............................................................................................................................................................ 1606
NEW-CHARTS - UK Current Account Deficit & Sterling Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate ................................................................... 1606
NEW-CHARTS - UK Since the Post GFC Stimulus Recovery, A Steady GDP Decline ......................................................................... 1607
NEW-CHARTS - UK Steady Long Term GDP Erosion .......................................................................................................................... 1607
NEW-CHARTS - UK Net Trade an Economic Drag ............................................................................................................................... 1608
NEW-CHARTS - UK US versus UK Productivity Growth ....................................................................................................................... 1609
NEW-CHARTS - UK Global Leader in Financial Services Net Exports ................................................................................................. 1609
NEW-CHARTS - UK Global Leader in Exports as % of GDP ................................................................................................................ 1610
CHARTS - UK - U.K. Productivity growth remains dismal......................................................................................................................... 1611
CHARTS - UK - The UK's increasingly polarized politics .......................................................................................................................... 1611
CHARTS - UK GBPUSD Volume trended higher into the election - above peak seen around the Scottish referendum. .................... 1612
CHARTS - UK The UK's financial sector has the highest exposure to China ........................................................................................ 1612
CHARTS - UK UK retail sales -0.5% in March, biggest fall since May last year and breaking longest run of increases in 5 years ..... 1613
CHARTS - UK - Deficit One of Worst of Developed Economies ............................................................................................................... 1613
CHARTS - UK Private Sector Surplus Eliminated .................................................................................................................................. 1614
CHARTS - UK Self-Employment At Record High ...................................................................................................................................... 1615
CHARTS - UK Rate Voting Shows Preference for Inflation Report Months ............................................................................................. 1616
CHARTS - UK Below 2% Target But 2nd Highest in EU ......................................................................................................................... 1616
CHARTS - UK CPI Below Target for 7th Month ...................................................................................................................................... 1617
CHARTS - UK Real-Wage Decline Longest Since At Least 1964 ......................................................................................................... 1618
CHARTS - UK Wage-Neutral Unemployment Rate Falling .................................................................................................................... 1618
CHARTS - UK CPI Too Low for BOE and Falling .................................................................................................................................. 1619
CHARTS - UK GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1620
CHARTS - UK Population Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 1620
CHARTS - UK - Crushed Disposable Income ........................................................................................................................................... 1621
CHARTS - UK - BOE Balance Sheet Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 1622
CHARTS - UK - Lending ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1623
CHARTS - UK - Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................ 1624
CHARTS - UK - GDP - Pre and Post Recession Levels ........................................................................................................................... 1625
CHARTS - UK - GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1625
CHARTS - UK - BOE Rates ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1626
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1627
NEW-RESEARCH The Brexit Delusion .................................................................................................................................................. 1627
NEW-RESEARCH Brexit: 5 Things Investors Need to Know ................................................................................................................ 1631
NEW-RESEARCH Brexit vote would affect UK's top credit score, says Standard & Poor's ................................................................. 1635
NEW-RESEARCH Mark Carney issues stark warning on global growth as storm clouds gather ......................................................... 1637
RESEARCH British General Threatens Military Coup If Corbyn Elected .............................................................................................. 1638
RESEARCH The End of Britain? Martin Armstrong On Jeremy Corbyn's Resurrection Of Marx ......................................................... 1640
RESEARCH What is Jeremy Corbyn's programme for government? .................................................................................................... 1643
RESEARCH What does Jeremy Corbyn stand for? Jeremy Corbyn's policies and views explained .................................................... 1649
RESEARCH Who is Jeremy Bernard Corbyn? ...................................................................................................................................... 1653
RESEARCH The City Of London Has Turned Britain into A "Civilized Mafia State" ............................................................................. 1658
RESEARCH What Remains of the UK Middle? ..................................................................................................................................... 1659
RESEARCH Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts ..................................................................................................... 1660
RESEARCH Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading .................................. 1663
RESEARCH Consensus See UK Rate Increase in February 2015 Possibility of November ............................................................. 1666
RESEARCH BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls ........................................................................................ 1668
RESEARCH - UK workers' wage squeeze is longest since the 1870s ..................................................................................................... 1671
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1672
UK - What you need to Know..................................................................................................................................................................... 1672
UK - Joins Currency War - Down 8% YTD ............................................................................................................................................. 1673
UK - Specter of Stagflation Haunts UK ...................................................................................................................................................... 1674
UK - Public Policy turns Against Austerity and PM Cameron ............................................................................................................ 1675
UK - Doomsday Debt Machine .................................................................................................................................................................. 1676
UK - QE Extension Coming ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1679
UK - Small Business Credit Squeeze Now Acute - Loan Rejections Rising ..................................................................................... 1681
UK - Technically in a Depression ........................................................................................................................................................... 1682
ITALY POTENTIAL FOR ITALY TO FAIL & DRAG DOWN THE EUROOPEAN PROJECT .......................................................................... 1685
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1686
MARCH 2016 Edition

16

NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Lack of Capital Expenditure Has Inevitably Lead to Italian Budget Shortfalls ................................................ 1686
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Debt & NGDP Diverge ..................................................................................................................................... 1686
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Assets versus NGDP ................................................................................................................... 1687
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Loans Outstanding By Sector Households, Government & Non-Financial .............................. 1688
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Gross Investment versus France .......................................................................................................... 1688
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Falling Real Labor Productivity Per Person Italy versus France .................................................................. 1689
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Measuring Italian Bad Debt ............................................................................................................................. 1689
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Debt Maturity Profile w/ Implied Roll-Over and Estimated Deficits....................................................... 1690
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Interest Paid on the Public Debt ........................................................................................................... 1690
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Target2 Liabilities Held By Banca dItalia ........................................................................................................ 1691
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Marketable Securities Held by Banca dItalia .................................................................................................. 1691
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Real Annual Gross Wages .................................................................................................................... 1692
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Gross and Net Debt Comparisons as % of NGDP .......................................................... 1693
CHARTS - ITALY Non-Performing Loans by Region ............................................................................................................................. 1694
CHARTS - ITALY Gross Italian Impaired Loans..................................................................................................................................... 1695
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Debt ............................................................................................................................................ 1695
CHARTS - ITALY Banks Non-Performing Loans .................................................................................................................................. 1696
CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 1697
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1697
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................ 1699
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 1699
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1700
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................. 1701
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 1702
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 1702
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ......................................................................................................................................... 1703
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................. 1704
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ....................................................................................................................................................... 1705
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1706
NEW-RESEARCH How Italy Will Fail And Drag Down The European Project ..................................................................................... 1706
RESEARCH Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"........... 1717
RESEARCH Italy Is "Willing To Temporarily Suspend Schengen" In Response To Refugee Crisis 09-02-15 Zero Hedge ................ 1720
RESEARCH Italy Non-Performing Loans Hit A New Record High ..................................................................................................... 1725
RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low ............................................................................. 1730
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ..................................................................................... 1732
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ...................................................................................................................................................... 1736
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ..................................................... 1738
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ....................................................................................................................................... 1742
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ................................................................. 1744
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People ............................................................................................................................ 1746
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar .................................................................................................................................... 1750
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise!........................................................................... 1753
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................. 1754
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................. 1756
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily .................................................................................................................. 1759
FRANCE HOLLANDE SAYS FRANCE IN STATE OF ECONOMIC EMERGENCY AS STATE OF EMERGENCY ENSHRINED INTO
CONSTITUTION .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1761
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1761
CHARTS FRANCE Total Net Government Liabilities .......................................................................................................................... 1761
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. ........................................................ 1761
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ........................................................................................................... 1762
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ....................................................................... 1762
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................. 1763
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ........................................................................................................................................... 1763
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ........................................................................................... 1764
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................. 1764
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ..................................................................................................................... 1765
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................. 1766
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out...................................................................................... 1766
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens .............................................................................................. 1767
CHARTS - FRANCE - GDP ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1768
CHARTS - FRANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................ 1769
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUDGET DEFICIT ................................................................................................................................................. 1770
CHARTS - FRANCE - TAX v GDP ............................................................................................................................................................ 1771
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.................................................................................................................................... 1772
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1773
NEW-RESEARCH Hollande says France in state of economic emergency .......................................................................................... 1773
NEW-RESEARCH France Just Enshrined Its "State Of Emergency" In the Constitution ..................................................................... 1773
NEW-RESEARCH France Changes Constitution to Protect "Emergency" Police Powers from Court Challenges .............................. 1774
NEW-RESEARCH France's Far-Right Party Calls For Nation To "Re-Arm Itself", Revoke Muslims' Passports .................................. 1776
RESEARCH Moody's Downgrades France, Blames "Political Constraints", Sees No Material Reduction in Debt Burden ................. 1777
RESEARCH When It Comes To Total Debt, Greece Is Not That Much Worse Than France (Or The USA) ................................. 1781
RESEARCH Economic Malaise Sparks Political Crisis in France ......................................................................................................... 1782
RESEARCH - France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government .......................................................... 1784
RESEARCH Prime Minister Manuel Vall Resigns .................................................................................................................................. 1786
MARCH 2016 Edition

17

RESEARCH - European Voters Are Revolting; France Warns "Situation Is Grave for France, Europe" ................................................. 1786
RESEARCH - Steady Breakdown Underway ......................................................................................................................................... 1789
RESEARCH - France Loses its Coveted and NEEDED AAA Rating ................................................................................................... 1793
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1795
FRANCE - An astoundingly high number of French people don't have faith in Hollande 05-02-15 BI ..................................................... 1795
FRANCE - French utility EDF seeks to cut workers 10-week holiday quota 05-26-15 FT ....................................................................... 1795
FRANCE - What You Need to Know ......................................................................................................................................................... 1797
FRANCE - Key Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1798
FRANCE: Sharpest Drop in Private Sector Output in Four Years ............................................................................................................ 1802
FRANCE - Quits on Austerity - Never a Doubt This Would Happen...................................................................................................... 1805
FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ......................................................................................................................................................... 1806
FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism ................................................................................................................................................. 1808
FRANCE - Losing Its Way through Political Illusions and Lies ................................................................................................................. 1809
FRANCE - Uncompetitive .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1810
FRANCE - Titan Tire Calls Out French Labor ........................................................................................................................................... 1812
FRANCE - France Responds to Titan Tire ................................................................................................................................................ 1814
FRANCE - What Happens In France When Companies Fire People ....................................................................................................... 1816
FRANCE - Hollande's Economically Insane campaign Promise ............................................................................................................... 1817
GERMANY GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER WARNS OF FOUNDATION BEING LAID FOR AN ECONOMIC CRISIS ............................... 1819
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1819
CHARTS - GERMANY GDP Growth ...................................................................................................................................................... 1819
CHARTS - GERMANY 10-year Bund yields have now moved above JGB yields ................................................................................. 1820
CHARTS - GERMANY German Industrial Output -0.5% MM, +0.1% YY .............................................................................................. 1821
CHARTS - GERMANY Germany now leading the way back up in Euro Zone ...................................................................................... 1821
CHARTS - GERMANY On rolling bi-weekly basis, the 10-yr Bund yield rise of 43 bps is about as big as it gets in recent history ..... 1822
CHARTS - GERMANY - 1.179% 30 Year Bond Yield .............................................................................................................................. 1823
CHARTS - GERMANY 2 Year Sovereign Yield Goes Negative ............................................................................................................ 1823
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1823
CHARTS - GERMANY German & Japanese Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close .............................................................................. 1824
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Y European Yields........................................................................................................................................ 1825
CHARTS - GERMANY German Unemployment .................................................................................................................................... 1826
CHARTS - GERMANY German Core Inflation ....................................................................................................................................... 1826
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1826
CHARTS - GERMANY Expectations Component Peaked In January ................................................................................................... 1827
CHARTS - GERMANY Ifo Rolls-Over..................................................................................................................................................... 1827
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Bund Below 1% ................................................................................................................................... 1828
CHARTS - GERMANY - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................... 1828
CHARTS - GERMANY - IFO Investor Confidence .................................................................................................................................... 1829
CHARTS - GERMANY - ZEW Expectations .............................................................................................................................................. 1830
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1832
NEW-RESEARCH - German Finance Minister: Expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis........................................... 1832
NEW-RESEARCH - Furious Germans Stage Massive Anti-Islam Protest ............................................................................................... 1832
NEW-RESEARCH - Germany Has Repatriated Over 366 Tonnes Of Gold From New York And Paris .................................................. 1840
RESEARCH - U.S. Will Station New Nuclear Weapons in Germany against Russia ............................................................................... 1847
RESEARCH - Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Deploys Army, Germany Loses Patience ............................... 1848
RESEARCH - Why Volkswagen Is Systematically Important For Germany And Europe ......................................................................... 1852
RESEARCH - Europe's Woes: The Escalating Cost to Germany ............................................................................................................. 1855
RESEARCH - Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo .................................................................................................... 1858
RESEARCH - Five charts that show Germany is heading into recession 10-19-14 The Guardian.......................................................... 1859
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September .......................................... 1862
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak.......................................................................................... 1864
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges .................................................................................................................... 1865
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners........................................................................................... 1869
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany.............................................................................................................. 1870
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ......................................................................... 1875
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel ..................................................................... 1876
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" ........................................................................................................................ 1878
IBERIAN PENINSULA LEFT BLOC ASCENDING AGAINST PORTUGALS SOCIALISTS ........................................................................... 1880
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1880
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP ................................................................................................................................................. 1880
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ......................................................... 1880
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ................................................................................... 1880
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ....................................................................................................................... 1881
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans...................................................................................................................................... 1882
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1883
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1883
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1884
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1885
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1886
NEW-RESEARCH - Did Austerity Really Win Out in Portugal? ........................................................................................................... 1886
RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie" ............................................................................................................... 1886
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1890
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1893
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .............................................................................................. 1897
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion .............................................................. 1899
MARCH 2016 Edition

18

RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam .............................................................................................................. 1900

IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................. 1902
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ...................................................................................................................... 1903
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic .................................................................................................................................................................. 1904
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem ....................................................................................................................................................... 1905
IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ............................................................................................... 1910
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost..................................................................................................................................... 1912
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem ............................................................................................................................................ 1915
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................ 1916
CHINA: CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, FALLING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & NOW US TREASURY SALES ................... 1925
CHINA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1925
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1925
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ............................................................................................................................................. 1925
NEW-CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ............................................................................................... 1926
NEW-CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves .......................................................................................................... 1926
NEW-CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ....................................................................................... 1927
NEW-CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings .................................................................................................................................. 1927
NEW-CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ............................................................................................................................... 1928
NEW-CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ......................................................................................................................... 1928
NEW-CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 1929
NEW-CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ............................................................................................................................... 1929
NEW-CHARTS Chinese New Loan Breakdown ..................................................................................................................................... 1930
NEW-CHARTS CAI Suggests China Economic Activity Below Reported GDP .................................................................................... 1930
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Bank NPLs Are Gradually Rising Every Quarter ............................................................................................ 1931
NEW-CHARTS A Tale of Two Economies ............................................................................................................................................. 1931
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Investment Share of GDP Higher than Ever in Japan or Korea ...................................................................... 1933
NEW-CHARTS China Treasury Holding Have Peaked But US Commercial Banks Taking Uo the Slack ............................................ 1934
NEW-CHARTS China 2014 Labor Force Declines First Time in at Least Two Decades ...................................................................... 1934
NEW-CHARTS Ponzi Finance: Chinese Firms Are Issuing More Debt Just to Pay Interest ................................................................. 1935
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Global Trade Index 2001 ............................................................................................................................. 1935
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Imports Exports ........................................................................................................................................... 1937
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Economic Weakness Wider Deeper In September ...................................................................................... 1938
CHARTS Sinking Li Keqiamg Index Contrasts With Stable GDP .......................................................................................................... 1939
CHARTS China is the Undisputed Engine of Global Growth ................................................................................................................. 1940
CHARTS China Has Been Consuming Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials ............................................................................... 1940
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment & Consumption in China Y-o-Y Growth ........................................................................................ 1941
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment Rises Least Since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 1942
CHARTS Economic Indicators Point to Lower Growth than the Headline Figures ................................................................................ 1942
CHARTS Gains of Real Estate Development Investment 1/10th of 2010 Pace ..................................................................................... 1943
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1943
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China for Chinas Domestic Use as a % of GDP ..................................................................................... 1944
CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1945
CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 1946
CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low...................................................................................................................................... 1947
CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .............................................................................. 1947
CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ......................................................................................... 1948
CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .............................................................................................................................. 1949
CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ........................................................................................... 1949
CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 1950
CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases ............................................................................................................................................................ 1951
CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ........................................................................... 1951
CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................... 1952
CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ................................................................................................................................ 1952
CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ................................................................................................ 1953
CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ........................................................................................... 1954
CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss ........................................................................................................ 1954
CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ................................................................................................................................................................. 1955
CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern...................................................................................................................................................... 1956
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 1957
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 1958
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1959
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 1960
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 1960
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 1961
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 1961
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 1962
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 1962
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 1963
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 1964
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 1964
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 1965
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 1965
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 1966
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 1967
MARCH 2016 Edition

19

CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 1967

CHARTS Chinese PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1968
CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ....................................................................................................................... 1969
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 1970
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 1970
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 1971
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 1971
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 1972
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 1972
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 1973
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 1974
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 1974
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 1975
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 1976
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 1976
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 1976
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 1977
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 1978
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 1978
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1979
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 1979
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 1980
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 1981
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 1982
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 1983
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 1983
CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1983
CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 1984
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 1985
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 1985
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 1986
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 1986
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 1987
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 1988
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 1989
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 1990
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 1990
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 1992
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 1993
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 1994
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1995
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1996
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1997
CHARTS - CHINA Industrial Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 1998
CHARTS - CHINA - Urban Fixed Asset Investment .................................................................................................................................. 1999
CHARTS - CHINA Retail Sales .............................................................................................................................................................. 2000
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2001
NEW-CHINA "China Is A Monumental Doomsday Machine" Stockman Warns .................................................................................... 2001
NEW-CHINA China Faces Capital Flight Punishment ........................................................................................................................... 2004
NEW-CHINA China's Credit Conundrum................................................................................................................................................ 2008
CHINA China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years ........................................................................... 2010
CHINA China Outflows Said To Surpass A Staggering $300 Billion in Under Three Months ............................................................... 2013
CHINA China FX Reserve Drop Is Collateral Damage from Yuan Fall .................................................................................................. 2016
CHINA This Isn't 1994: China and That First U.S. Rate Hike ................................................................................................................ 2018
CHINA Expect Regional Ripples, Not Global Waves, From China Selloff ............................................................................................. 2020
CHINA China Risks Downward Spiral of Falling Markets, Growth......................................................................................................... 2021
CHINA China to the Rescue ................................................................................................................................................................... 2023
CHINA Yuan Devaluation Helps Attain U.S. Monetary Tightening Without Fed Rate Hikes ................................................................. 2024
CHINA Devaluation Promises to Boost Exports, But Adds Stability Risk .............................................................................................. 2026
CHINA Risk of a Vicious Circle on Market, Profit Declines .................................................................................................................... 2028
JAPAN: ABENOMICS GOES FULL IN WITH NIRP ............................................................................................................... 2030

JAPAN .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2030
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2031
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Eire Similarities with Abenomics Period and 2007-2009 Crisis ..................................................................... 2031
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Nikkei 225 versus Kuroda's regime shift to NIRP .......................................................................................... 2031
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Largest unrealized losses on Margin Buying since Lehman ......................................................................... 2031
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Exports Y-o-Y versus USDJPY ...................................................................................................................... 2032
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Imports Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................................................. 2032
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Holding of Outstanding Japanese Debt ................................................................................................. 2033
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN NIKKEI In Near Free-Fall ............................................................................................................................... 2033
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese Bank Stocks Collapsing as they Follow JGB 2-10 Yield Curve Spread ....................................... 2034
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese Buying of Foreign Stock ................................................................................................................ 2034
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Owns 52% of Entire Japanese ETF Market Assets ............................................................................... 2035
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN GDP Q-o-Q Quintuple Dip Recession......................................................................................................... 2035
CHARTS - JAPAN Real Y-o-Y Cash Earnings with Abenomics ............................................................................................................ 2036
MARCH 2016 Edition

20

CHARTS - JAPAN BOJs Accelerating Purchases of Equity Funds Seen as Driving Force of Tokyo Share Markets ......................... 2036
CHARTS - JAPAN More than a Fourth of Japans Population is Over the Age of 65 ........................................................................... 2037
CHARTS - JAPAN IMFs Forecast of Japanese Population Growth...................................................................................................... 2037
CHARTS - JAPAN Prefectures with More Seniors Saw Steeper GDP Losses ..................................................................................... 2038
CHARTS - JAPAN Aging Population Will Continue Dragging Down Growth......................................................................................... 2038
CHARTS - JAPAN Fewer, Older Citizens Facing Larger Debt Burden ................................................................................................. 2039
CHARTS - JAPAN 20 Years Later China Follows Japans Pattern ....................................................................................................... 2040
CHARTS - JAPAN Financial Repression Gets Heavier in Japan .......................................................................................................... 2040
CHARTS - JAPAN Inventory Build Up Keeps Q1 GDP Afloat ............................................................................................................... 2041
CHARTS - JAPAN 48 Month Trade Balance Deficit .............................................................................................................................. 2042
CHARTS - JAPAN Y-o-Y Contracting Imports ....................................................................................................................................... 2042
CHARTS - JAPAN Monetary Base versus USDJPY .............................................................................................................................. 2043
CHARTS - JAPAN Japan National Debt Rises To 1,053,357,200,000,000......................................................................................... 2043
CHARTS - JAPAN 1.174% 30 Year Bond Yield ..................................................................................................................................... 2045
CHARTS - JAPAN 2 Year Yield Goes Negative..................................................................................................................................... 2045
CHARTS - JAPAN Savings Rate Goes Negative ................................................................................................................................... 2045
CHARTS - JAPAN Stagnate Housing Starts with Historic Low 35 Year Mortgages .............................................................................. 2046
CHARTS - JAPAN Non-Resident Net Investment in Japanese Stocks ................................................................................................. 2046
CHARTS - JAPAN Shifting Demographics - Birth versus Deaths .......................................................................................................... 2047
CHARTS JAPAN Nikkei Strength is all Relative ............................................................................................................................... 2047
CHARTS - JAPAN Trade Balance .......................................................................................................................................................... 2048
CHARTS - JAPAN 10 Year Treasury Approaching Zero (12-27-14) ..................................................................................................... 2049
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Reserve Balances ............................................................................................................................................ 2050
CHARTS - JAPAN Macro Crisis Zones .................................................................................................................................................. 2051
CHARTS - JAPAN Demographics .......................................................................................................................................................... 2052
CHARTS - JAPAN Fiscal Deficit versus BOJ Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................ 2052
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Economy versus the Rest of the World ...................................................................................................... 2053
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Decline in Real Interest Rates .................................................................................................................... 2054
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese GDP Annualized Q-o-Q ........................................................................................................................... 2055
CHARTS - JAPAN Bankruptcies Due to Depreciating Yen .................................................................................................................... 2056
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese & German Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close ...................................................................................... 2056
CHARTS Q2 GDP Downturn Even Worse Than Though or Looks........................................................................................................ 2058
CHARTS Real Incomes Falling at Fastest Rate in a Decade ................................................................................................................ 2058
CHARTS Japan Exports Remained Subdued ........................................................................................................................................ 2059
CHARTS Past Yen Strength Pushed Production Off-Shore .................................................................................................................. 2059
CHARTS Japans Export Majors Lost Tech Battle ................................................................................................................................. 2060
CHARTS Japans Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................ 2061
CHARTS Japan Adjusted Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 2061
CHARTS Japan BoP Current Account Balance .................................................................................................................................. 2062
CHARTS 5T Yen of JGB Selling ............................................................................................................................................................. 2062
CHARTS Sovereign Debt % of Tax Revenue ........................................................................................................................................ 2063
CHARTS Public Sector Debt Issuances 2013 as % GDP ...................................................................................................................... 2064
CHARTS - GDP Trend ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2064
CHARTS - CPI Trend ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2065
CHARTS - JAPAN - GDP Resurgence ...................................................................................................................................................... 2065
CHARTS - JAPAN - BOJ Balance Sheet .................................................................................................................................................. 2066
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2067
NEW-JAPAN Safes Sell Out In Japan, 1,000 Franc Note Demand Soars As NIRP Triggers Cash Hoarding .............................. 2067
NEW-JAPAN "There Will Be Hyperinflation" Japanese Lawmaker Warns "Kuroda Got It Wrong" With NIRP .......................... 2069
NEW-JAPAN Abenomics Fails Miserably As Japan's Workers "Get Nothing" In 2015 ................................................................. 2072
JAPAN Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan ........................................................ 2075
JAPAN S&P Downgrades Japan from AA- To A+ On Doubts Abenomics Will Work - Full Text .................................................. 2078
JAPAN Elderly Japanese Population Hits New Record - Demographic Death-Rattle Continues ................................................ 2080
JAPAN Bank Of Japan Buying Power Runs Dry: "If They Don't Increase Now, It's Going To Be A Shock!" ............................. 2084
JAPAN Abe Ratings Crash to Record Lows, Japan Lowers Minimum Voting Age ....................................................................... 2086
JAPAN Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt ................................................................................. 2089
JAPAN Japan Still the Worlds Top Credit? ....................................................................................................................................... 2090
JAPAN Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation Target ........................................................................................ 2091
JAPAN Japanese trading firms to cut investments, sell assets ...................................................................................................... 2092
JAPAN The BOJ Ups The Ante ............................................................................................................................................................ 2094
JAPAN Is Japan Kaput? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2095
JAPAN - Pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen a year May Become "Open Ended" ............................................................................................... 2098
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2100
JAPAN - 3 Arrows of ABE-nomics Not Working ........................................................................................................................................ 2103
JAPAN - Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................................. 2105
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2106
JAPAN - Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses 200tn........................................................................................ 2108
JAPAN - Abe Approval Rating Plunges ................................................................................................................................................. 2110
JAPAN - What the Japanese been Buying ............................................................................................................................................. 2111
JAPAN - Japan May Matter More Than Tapering .................................................................................................................................. 2113
JAPAN - Japan Finances Worse than at Wars End ............................................................................................................................. 2116
JAPAN - BOJ: "The days of constructive ambiguity is over! ......................................................................................................... 2117
JAPAN - Abenomics Third Arrow Growth Strategy Underwhelms .......................................................................................................... 2118
JAPAN - 2nd ABE-nomics $200B Stimulus Package Approved ......................................................................................................... 2120
JAPAN - Worlds Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on ABE-nomics' 2% Inflation Goal ....................................................... 2121
JAPAN - The Abe-nomics Failure ........................................................................................................................................................... 2124
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT & KEY NOTES .......................................................................................................................................... 2126
MARCH 2016 Edition

21

JAPAN - What You Need to Know............................................................................................................................................................. 2128

JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ..................................................................................................................... 2131
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% of GDP in 5 Years .................................................................................................................................. 2131
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ........................................................................................ 2135
JAPAN - How Japan's National Debt Grew ............................................................................................................................................... 2136
JAPAN - ABE-nomics About Lowering Real Interest Rates ................................................................................................................ 2137
JAPAN - Japanese Bonds Have Lost Their Ability to Price Risk ........................................................................................................ 2138
JAPAN - Japanese Structural Problems a "Canary" for Western Developed Economies ................................................................ 2142
JAPAN - Shinzo Abe Hasn't the Stomach for the Heavy Lifting Needed to Accompany ABE-nomics........................................... 2144
JAPAN - A Credit Squeeze Leads Deflationary Leg Down .................................................................................................................. 2147
JAPAN - Some Japanese Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ............................................................................................................. 2148
JAPAN - The ABE (Asset Bubble Evaluator) Index ............................................................................................................................... 2150
JAPAN - Regional Risk-Reward ................................................................................................................................................................ 2151
JAPAN - Now the Frontrunner of Outright Monetization. .................................................................................................................... 2152
JAPAN - Yen Devaluation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2153
JAPAN - New Bank of Japan Policy - 2% Inflation in 2 Years ............................................................................................................. 2154
JAPAN - Appoints BOJ Governor Firmly Committed to Printing Money ........................................................................................... 2156
EMERGING MARKETS PROBLEMS IN EM & BRAZIL....................................................................................................... 2158

EMERGING MARKETS ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2158
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2158
NEW-CHARTS EM Wave is the Third Wave in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ............................................................................... 2158
NEW-CHARTS Countries Scaled to the Un sustainablilty of Their Debt ............................................................................................... 2158
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies ................................................................................... 2159
NEW-CHARTS Estimated Assets in Sovereign Wealth Funds versus Oil & Gas Related -1 ................................................................ 2160
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies-2 ............................................................................... 2160
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market Collapse Accelerated in May When Global Market Peaked ............................................................ 2161
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market USD Corporate Bond Maturities ....................................................................................................... 2162
CHARTS MSCI EM FX Index - New 6 Year Lows ................................................................................................................................ 2162
CHARTS EM FX Loses Since FOMC Meeting Brazil Noticeably Worse ............................................................................................ 2163
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since FOMC ....................................................................................................................... 2164
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since 9/7/09 ....................................................................................................................... 2164
CHARTS Brazilians Scramble to Protect their Store of Value (Coming to Other Countries) ................................................................. 2164
CHARTS Brazil Real GDP Y-o-Y% ........................................................................................................................................................ 2165
CHARTS Brazil Real / US$ versus Brazil 5Y CDS ................................................................................................................................ 2166
CHARTS Brazil Change in Yields Compared to Turkey and Mexico .................................................................................................. 2167
CHARTS Brazil Sovereign Gross Debt/GDP Government versus BI Simulation ............................................................................ 2167
CHARTS Brazil Number of days to start a business Worst in the Major Countries! ........................................................................ 2168
CHARTS Brazil Real Reaches Record Low as Budget Pessimism Rises .......................................................................................... 2168
CHARTS 5Y CDS Spreads Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia & Peru .............................................................................. 2169
CHARTS AFRICA-Chinese Investment Offers in Africa Since 2000 ..................................................................................................... 2169
CHARTS AFRICA-Foreign Direct Investment & Trade .......................................................................................................................... 2170
CHARTS AFRICA-Geographic Comparisons ......................................................................................................................................... 2171
CHARTS Emerging Markets Corporate Defaults ................................................................................................................................... 2171
CHARTS Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index ......................................................................................................................... 2172
CHARTS Emerging Markets Currency Change versus USD ................................................................................................................. 2172
CHARTS Emerging Markets Change in Nominal Policy Rate ............................................................................................................... 2173
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator .............................................................................................. 2174
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator Change Since 2008 Crisis ................................................... 2175
CHARTS Falling EM Currencies ............................................................................................................................................................. 2176
CHARTS Post-China 16 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2177
CHARTS Economies Now Need More Debt to Generate Growth ......................................................................................................... 2178
CHARTS Emerging Markets Benchmark Underperforms US Index ...................................................................................................... 2178
CHARTS - Reserves versus World ............................................................................................................................................................ 2178
CHARTS - Current Account Balances versus GDP .................................................................................................................................. 2180
CHARTS - Emerging Markets Index versus MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................... 2181
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 2182
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Exports ............................................................................................................................................................ 2183
CHARTS - SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2184
CHARTS - TURKEY - Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 2185
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2186
EMERGING MARKETS - Why Asian Markets Are Collapsing .............................................................................................................. 2186
EMERGING MARKETS - History Suggests Asia Can Handle Fed Tightening ................................................................................... 2188
EMERGING MARKETS - Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .......................................... 2190
EMERGING MARKETS - North Korea: Chinese Outsourcing Giant ................................................................................................... 2192
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ............................................... 2194
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted.............................................................................................................................. 2196
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 2196
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 2202
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia ........................................................................................................... 2202
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ............................................................................................................. 2204
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 2206
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals.................................................................................................................................... 2212
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ......................................................................................................................... 2213
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning .......................................................... 2215
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration ........................................... 2217
MARCH 2016 Edition

22

EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 2220

EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 2224
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business........................................................................................................... 2226
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ................................................................. 2227
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2230
ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 2230
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2234
ASIA: CHARTS Entering More Adverse Part of the Credit Cycle .......................................................................................................... 2234
ASIA: CHARTS Real GDP Slowing, Real Funding Costs Are Rising .................................................................................................... 2235
ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations ....................................................................................................... 2236
ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth............................................................................................ 2237
ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports ........................................................................................................ 2238
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2239
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 2239
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 2241
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 2241
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2243
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 2244
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 2244
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .......................................................................................................................... 2245
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................ 2246
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ...................................................................................... 2246
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 2247
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 2249
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems ...................................................................................................................................................... 2250
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ............................................. 2252
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 2254
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 2256
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ................................................................................................................................. 2257
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia ................................................................................................. 2261
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ........................................................................................................................................... 2262
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................ 2265
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 2266
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2268
LATIN AMERICA Latin America Shouldn't Blame the Federal Reserve .......................................................................................... 2268
COLUMBIA Colombian Peso Leads Currency Declines as Crude Falls ......................................................................................... 2270
ARGENTINA Fewer Reserves Are a Plus for Argentine Bondholders ............................................................................................ 2270
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .............................................................................................................. 2271
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................ 2272
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 2274
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2274
BRICS................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2281
NEW-BRICS BRIC GDP versus World GDP Contribution Contracting ............................................................................................. 2281
BRICS Population, GDP,GDP per Capita ............................................................................................................................................ 2282
BRICS Responsible for 43% of Global Growth in 2013 .................................................................................................................... 2283
BRICS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? ........................................................................................................................................ 2283
BRICS Inflation Problems Abound ...................................................................................................................................................... 2285
BRICS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth .............................................................................................. 2286
BRICS - Insufficient Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support .......................................................................................................... 2287
BRICS - A Development Bank-Forex Reserve Pool-African Integration ............................................................................................ 2289
BRICS - 40% of World Population and 25% of World GDP .................................................................................................................. 2290
BRICS - $3 to $13B GDP in Ten Years ................................................................................................................................................... 2293
BRICS- A World Wide Distrust of Financial Markets Building ............................................................................................................ 2296
BRAZIL........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2298
NEW-BRAZIL Brazils 2016 Recession Outlook Worsens ..................................................................................................................... 2298
NEW-BRAZIL Recession from 2015-2017 to be the Deepest Since 1901 Borders on Depression ................................................... 2298
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil GDP Growth Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................................................. 2299
NEW-BRAZIL Bankruptcy Escalates In Brazil 5525 In 2015 .............................................................................................................. 2299
NEW-BRAZIL Falling Currency against the USD - USDBRL ................................................................................................................. 2300
NEW-BRAZIL Rising Yields for Brazilian Companies ............................................................................................................................ 2300
NEW-BRAZIL Sharp Retail Decline ........................................................................................................................................................ 2301
NEW-BRAZIL GDP Contraction of -3.5% in 2016 and -0.5% in 2017 ................................................................................................... 2301
NEW-BRAZIL Longest Sequence of Drops in Quarterly GDP Since 1996 ............................................................................................ 2302
NEW-BRAZIL Sharp Decline in Quarterly GDP Growth in Recent Years .............................................................................................. 2302
NEW-BRAZIL High Contribution of External Sector to Growth in 2016 ................................................................................................. 2303
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil Cut to Junk by All Three Ratings Agencies After Moody's Joins The Fray ........................................................... 2304
NEW-BRAZIL 5,525 Companies Went Bankrupt In Brazil Last Year: "It's A Legitimate Credit Crisis" ................................................. 2306
NEW-BRAZIL - xxxxx ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2309
NEW-BRAZIL - xxxxx ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2310
BRAZIL - Brazil Budget Cuts Not Enough to Avoid More Downgrades .................................................................................................... 2310
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is Now A Job Destruction Machine ............................................................................................................... 2311
BRAZIL - Local Rates Hit Hardest by Swift S&P Sovereign Downgrade to Junk ..................................................................................... 2314
BRAZIL - Recession and High Rates Doomed Brazils Investment-Grade Rating ................................................................................... 2316
BRAZIL - Why Brazil Is Not Coming Back Anytime Soon ......................................................................................................................... 2318
MARCH 2016 Edition

23

BRAZIL - Brazil Returns to Junk as Developing Nations Feel the Squeeze ............................................................................................. 2318
BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ...................................................................................................... 2321
BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................. 2328
BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................................... 2328
BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector ....................................................................................................... 2329
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ............................................................................................................... 2329
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 2331
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 2334
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 2337
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 2339
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 2340
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 2340
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 2341
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 2341
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2342
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 2342
RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 2343
RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 2343
RUSSIA Russian CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................. 2344
RUSSIA Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge .................................................................................................................................. 2345
RUSSIA CDS Spreads Has Widened 250bp Since Mid-June ............................................................................................................... 2346
RUSSIA Russian 5Y CDS versus USDRUB versus Russian Stocks .................................................................................................... 2347
RUSSIA Crude Oil in Rubles .................................................................................................................................................................. 2348
RUSSIA Russian Reserves versus USDRUB ........................................................................................................................................ 2348
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 2349
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 2350
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 2351
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 2352
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 2353
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 2354
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 2355
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 2355
RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 2357
RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ............................................................................................................... 2357
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2358
NEW-INDIA India Imports- Exports Y-o-Y .............................................................................................................................................. 2358
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 2359
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 2360
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2361
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2362
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2363
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 2364
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2365
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ............................................................................................................. 2367
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ........................................................................................................... 2368
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2370
US ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................................... 2372

THE GLOBAL MACRO OVERLAY ........................................................................................................................................ 2374
MACRO - US Macro Data .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2374
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2374
NEW- MACRO QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 .......................................................................................... 2374
NEW- MACRO Total Y-o-Y Global Export .............................................................................................................................................. 2375
NEW- MACRO MSCI World Index A Rounded Top or Consolidation? ............................................................................................... 2377
NEW- MACRO Central Bank Total Assets Fed,BoJ,BOE,ECB,PBoC ................................................................................................ 2377
NEW- MACRO Global Debt Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 2378
NEW- MACRO 10 Fold Increase in Central Banks Assets in 20 Years. ................................................................................................ 2378
NEW- MACRO Global PMI ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2380
NEW- MACRO Global GDP % under Negative Rates ........................................................................................................................... 2380
NEW- MACRO Global Y-o-Y CPI Percentage Change .......................................................................................................................... 2381
NEW- MACRO Benchmark NIRP Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 2382
NEW- MACRO Baltic Dry Index At levels Not Seen Since the 1980s ................................................................................................ 2382
MACRO EM Wave is the Third Wave in the Global Financial Crisis...................................................................................................... 2383
MACRO Deteriorating EM FX, Equity and Debt .................................................................................................................................. 2383
MACRO Global Slowdown Only Getting Worse - China ........................................................................................................................ 2384
MACRO Global Slowdown Only Getting Worse - India .......................................................................................................................... 2385
MACRO Global Import-Export Trends .................................................................................................................................................... 2386
MACRO Developed World Import-Export Trends Has Nearly Halved Since 2000 ................................................................................ 2388
MACRO Emerging Market Import-Export Trends Has Also Fallen ........................................................................................................ 2389
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2390
NEW-MACRO- The 8 Major Macro Economic Problems The Next President Will Face .......................................................................... 2390
Problem #1: Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2390
Problem #2: China ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2390
Problem #3: Australia .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2391
Problem #4: The Middle East .............................................................................................................................................................. 2391
MARCH 2016 Edition

24

Problem #5: Russia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2391

Problem #6: Europe ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2391
Problem #7: The Americas .................................................................................................................................................................. 2392
Problem #8: The United States ........................................................................................................................................................... 2392
A Recession is Inevitable .................................................................................................................................................................... 2392
NEW-MACRO- Deutsche Bank's Dire Warning On Global Trade: "The Currency War Is Futile" ............................................................ 2392
US INVESTMENT CYCLE ...................................................................................................................................................... 2396

CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2397
NEW-CHART Professionals Moving to the Sidelines in a Significant Fashion in US Equities .................................................... 2397
CHART Financial Cycles and Crisis Are Becoming Longer & Deeper ........................................................................................... 2398
CHART The Business, Credit and Rate Cycles ................................................................................................................................. 2398
CHART The Business, Credit and Rate Cycles ................................................................................................................................. 2399
CHART A Secular Problem on the Verge of Also Being a Business /Credit /Rate Cycle Problem .............................................. 2399
CHART Business Cycle Surprise Index ............................................................................................................................................. 2400
CHART Boom-Bust Cycle In Stocks ................................................................................................................................................... 2400
RESEARCHOF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2401
NEW-INVESTMENT Bonds & Stocks Unhinged from Reality- Financial reversal will fuel backlash against governments and
central banks ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2401
GORD'S BIG PICTURE ECONOMIC CYCLE ..................................................................................................................................................... 2403
ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2404
MONTHLY INDICATORS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................. 2404
NEW-RESEARCH End of the Benign Cycle. ................................................................................................................................... 2404
RESEARCH - 8 Charts That Prove the US Is Already In A Recession ............................................................................................... 2405
RESEARCH - 16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here ..................................... 2410
THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 2414
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS > CONFIDENCE > CONSUMPTION > GROWTH CYCLE.................................................................................... 2414
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2415
SOME HIGHLIGHTS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2415
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2419
NEW-CHARTS Waiter / Bartender versus Manufacturing Jobs Post Dec 2007 ................................................................................. 2419
NEW-CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Post 2010 ........................................................................................................ 2419
CHARTS October NFP 60K below Estimates at 142K ........................................................................................................................... 2420
CHARTS Change in Civilian Employment: August 2015 ....................................................................................................................... 2420
CHARTS Peaks In LMCI Leads Declines in Employment...................................................................................................................... 2421
CHARTS September 2015 Monthly Job Change by State Bottoms up Says 22K Jobs Lost ............................................................. 2421
CHARTS Initial Jobless Claims .............................................................................................................................................................. 2422
CHARTS Increased Job Openings not a Sign of Better Employment ................................................................................................... 2424
NEW-CHARTS - U3 & U6 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2425
NEW-CHARTS - Employment Situation Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2425
BUSINESS CYCLE - CONSUMER & BUSINESS SENTIMENT ......................................................................................................................... 2432
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE Shifting Trend ................................................................................................................................................. 2432
NEW-SENTIMENT - Consumer, Investor & Trader ............................................................................................................................................. 2433
NEW-Consumer Confidence - Conference Board ........................................................................................................................................ 2433
NEW-Consumer Sentiment - Michigan ......................................................................................................................................................... 2436
NEW-Consumer Comfort - Bloomberg .......................................................................................................................................................... 2438
NEW-American Association of Independent Investors ................................................................................................................................. 2440
NEW-Investors Intelligence ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2440
NEW-National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) .......................................................................................................... 2441
NEW-Small Business Optimism .................................................................................................................................................................... 2443
NEW-Percentage Stocks above 50 & 200 DMA ........................................................................................................................................... 2445
NEW-Margin Levels ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2446
Real Margin Debt as % of GDP ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2452
Margin Debt versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2452
Mutual Fund Cash Levels v S&P 500 ............................................................................................................................................................ 2454
NEW-OSCILLATORS & BREADTH: Indicators of Importance .......................................................................................................................... 2457
NEW-NYSE Overbought / Oversold .............................................................................................................................................................. 2457
NEW-OEX Open Interest (Puts/Calls) ........................................................................................................................................................... 2458
NEW-TRIN ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2459
NEW-McClellan Oscillator ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2460
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2461
CHARTS Small Business Sentiment Trending Down Strongly .................................................................................................................. 2461
CHARTS Small Business Sentiment Margin Squeeze ........................................................................................................................... 2461
CHARTS Bloomberg Consumer Comfort versus Nasdaq ......................................................................................................................... 2462
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE Shifting Trend ................................................................................................................................................. 2463
CHARTS Economic Surprise Index lower highs, lower lows and a reluctant bounce ............................................................................ 2463
CHARTS Nominal & Real Household Spending Expectations .................................................................................................................. 2464
CHARTS Household Spending Expectations by Income Bucket .............................................................................................................. 2464
CHARTS A Very Neutral (Highly Unusual) Bull Market ............................................................................................................................. 2465
CHARTS Historical Swings in Sentiment ................................................................................................................................................... 2465
CHARTS Fed Doing the Lending Not the Banks What Are the Banks Worried About?...................................................................... 2467
CHARTS Investors Intelligence Bulls & Bears ........................................................................................................................................... 2467
MARCH 2016 Edition

25

CHARTS A/D Line Diverging from Price, Suggesting Weakening Momentum ......................................................................................... 2468
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2469
SENTIMENT Oblivious To Risk - Complacency Still Reigns .................................................................................................................. 2469
SENTIMENT UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles to 12-Month Lows with Biggest Miss on Record................................................... 2473
SENTIMENT Elderly Americans' Confidence Collapses To 11-Month Lows (As Middle-Aged Hope Surges) ......................................... 2474
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2476
NEW-CHARTS US Spending Consumption in 2015 Was in Healthcare Up Dramatically ................................................................. 2477
NEW-CHARTS US Spending Unaffordable Housing Shifting to Unaffordable Rentals...................................................................... 2477
NEW-CHARTS US Spending Gap Between Earnings and House Prices Now Larger than During Housing Bubble........................ 2478
CHARTS October Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y & Sequential Change ......................................................................................... 2479
CHARTS October Retail Y-o-Y Sales ..................................................................................................................................................... 2479
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Autos M-o-M .................................................................................................................................................. 2480
CHARTS Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 2480
CHARTS Consumer Credit Car Loans ................................................................................................................................................... 2481
CHARTS Consumer Loans Owned by the Government ........................................................................................................................ 2481
CHARTS Student & Car Loans ............................................................................................................................................................... 2483
CHARTS Total Non-Revolving Credit ..................................................................................................................................................... 2483
CHARTS August Sequential Change in Revolving and Non-Revolving Credit ..................................................................................... 2484
CHARTS Gas Prices Below $2/Gallon by December? .......................................................................................................................... 2484
CHARTS Aggregate Income Proxy versus Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas ............................................................................................ 2485
CHARTS Consumption Items Sampling - Y-o-Y Growth........................................................................................................................ 2485
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2487
NEW-CONSUMPTION This Is What Americans Spent Most Money On In 2015 Spoiler Alert: Obamacare ..................................... 2487
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2488
NEW-CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Tumbles to 1.4% .......................................................................................................... 2492
NEW-CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Trend is steadily down ................................................................................................. 2493
NEW-CHARTS Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................ 2493
NEW-CHARTS Markit PMI Both Services and Manufacturing falling Since June 2014 ..................................................................... 2494
NEW-CHARTS Markit Composite PMI and US GDP ............................................................................................................................. 2494
NEW-CHARTS US Economic Growth in 2015 Was in Healthcare Consumption .................................................................................. 2495
CHARTS Strong Dollar, High Inventories to Slow US Factory Output ................................................................................................... 2496
CHARTS US ISMs 3 Mo MA................................................................................................................................................................... 2496
CHARTS September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ............................................................................................................... 2497
CHARTS Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) .................................................................................................. 2498
CHARTS Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates ........................................................................................ 2499
CHARTS Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 ................................................................................................ 2499
CHARTS Predicted US Quarterly GDP Grow Q-o-Q Annualized ....................................................................................................... 2500
CHARTS Predicted US Annual Growth % Through 2024 ...................................................................................................................... 2500
CHARTS Predicted US Growth Compared to UK and Eurozone .......................................................................................................... 2501
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2502
NEW-GROWTH Core Durable Goods Tumble For 13th Month, Longest Non-Recessionary Stretch In 70 Years ............................... 2502
NEW-GROWTH PMI Services Signals "Softest Expansion of New Business Since 2009 .................................................................... 2504
NEW-GROWTH Healthcare Is About To Surpass Housing As The Biggest Source Of American "Growth" ............................... 2506
NEW-GROWTH X .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2508
NEW-GROWTH X .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2508
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2509
US PUBLIC POLICY OBAMACARE IN REALITY A STEALTH TAX ................................................................................... 2517

NEW-CHARTS The Changing Shape of US Income Distribution .......................................................................................................... 2518
NEW-CHARTS US infrastructure spending as a % of GDP is the lowest it has been since 1950 ........................................................ 2519
CHARTS The Cost of Healthcare By Country Spending Per Person ................................................................................................. 2520
CHARTS The Bankrupt US Healthcare System .................................................................................................................................. 2520
CHARTS Rise in Number of Homeless Children ................................................................................................................................... 2521
CHARTS One-Third of All Homeless Live in These 10 Cities ................................................................................................................ 2522
CHARTS Trends in American Public Schooling Since 1970 .................................................................................................................. 2523
CHARTS Size of US Army Since 1946................................................................................................................................................... 2523
CHARTS Lack of Trust in Government to Handle International & Domestic Problems ......................................................................... 2524
CHARTS Changing Presidential Stance ................................................................................................................................................ 2525
CHARTS Public Support to Withdraw from Union .................................................................................................................................. 2525
CHARTS - US Incarceration Rate Out of Control ...................................................................................................................................... 2526
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2527
NEW-POLICY - These Are the 8 Biggest Barriers to Economic Growth .................................................................................................. 2527
NEW-POLICY Obamacare: Written by Insurance companies to benefit Insurance companies............................................................ 2528
NEW-POLICY Former UK Ambassador To Syria: US/UK Foreign Policy Is Doomed, Even Corrupt ........................................... 2530
MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 2534
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2534
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Base Growth versus S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 2535
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- US Dollar Index ................................................................................................................................................ 2535
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................... 2536
MARCH 2016 Edition

26

NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 PE Ratio ............................................................................................................................................ 2536

NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................................................ 2537
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- HYG .................................................................................................................................................................. 2538
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2539
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2539
NEW-CHARTS: Feds US PCE Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................... 2540
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2540
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2541
NEW-CHARTS: US Durable Goods New Orders ......................................................................................................................................... 2541
CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 2542
CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ............................................................................................................. 2542
CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .................................................................................................................... 2543
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 2543
CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ............................................................................................................................. 2544
CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series .................................................................................................................................... 2544
CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay .................................................................................................................. 2545
CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ................................................................................................................ 2545
CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ......................................................................................................................................... 2546
CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ........................................................................................................... 2546
CORE CHARTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2547
QUANTITATIVE EASING .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2547
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Treasury Market .............................................................................................................................. 2547
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Equity Market................................................................................................................................... 2547
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with US Equity Market ................................................................................................................................ 2548
NEW-CORE: US Monetary Base Growth Correlation with US Equity Market .......................................................................................... 2548
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 ................................................................................................ 2549
NEW-CORE: Expect Exponential Growth in the Fed Balance Sheet ....................................................................................................... 2549
NEW-CORE: Total Assets Held by the Federal Reserve .......................................................................................................................... 2551
NEW-CORE: Exponential Growth in US Credit a Requirement ................................................................................................................ 2551
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2552
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates ............................................. 2552
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 2: Targeting longer-term interest rates ........................ 2558
NEW-RESERCH Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating The Economy ................................................................................... 2561
FISCAL POLICY RECIPE FOR COLLAPSE: RISING MILITARY & SOCIAL WELFARE SPENDING ................................................... 2563
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2565
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2565
FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ..................................................................................................... 2565
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 2565
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 2566
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 2566
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 2567
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 2567
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2568
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2569
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 2570
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 2570
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 2571
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2572
NEW-CHARTS Where Did Every Dollar in Spending Go? ........................................................................................................................ 2572
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 2572
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 2573
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 2574
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 2574
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 2575
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 2575
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 2576
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 2576
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 2578
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 2579
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 2580
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 2585
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 2586
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 2588
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 2592
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 2597
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2607
NEW-CHARTS Connecticut Bond Yield Spreads Over AAA Munis .......................................................................................................... 2607
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 2607
NEW-RESEARCH - Countdown To Insolvency Begins For Chicago Pensions As State Supreme Court Rejects Reform Bid ...... 2608
NEW-RESEARCH - Connecticut Credit Risk Spikes to Record High ..................................................................................................... 2610
RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke .................................................................................................................. 2612
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 2616
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 2622
MARCH 2016 Edition

27

UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2627

NEW-Charts Revenues Completely Consumed By Major Entitlements & Interest by 2025 ..................................................................... 2627
NEW-Charts In FY 2014 Medicaid Accounted for 8% of Federal Outlays ................................................................................................. 2627
NEW-Charts Medicare Spending is a Growing Share of the Federal Budget ........................................................................................... 2629
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 2630
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 2634
US REGULATORY COSTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2637
CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ................................................................................................................. 2637
RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty............................................................................................................................................................... 2637
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2639
NEW-CHARTS Marginal Tax Rates Must Nearly Double to Fund Entitlement Spending ......................................................................... 2639
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 2640
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 2641
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 2644
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 2644
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 2645
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 2646
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 2646
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 2647
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2651
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2654
NEW-CHARTS Size of US military Spending Dwarfs all others- Spends more than the Next 15 Combined ........................................... 2654
CHARTS Competing Visions of Government ............................................................................................................................................. 2654
CHARTS - Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2656
CHARTS - Growing Government Dependence ............................................................................................................................................. 2657
CHARTS - Coming Demographic Shock ....................................................................................................................................................... 2657
CHARTS - Fiscal Cliff Outcome .................................................................................................................................................................... 2661
KEY DRIVERS MUST HAVE CATALYSTS OF CHANGE ................................................................................................... 2663

EMPLOYMENT .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2663
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2664
NEW-CHARTS Waiter / Bartender versus Manufacturing Jobs Post Dec 2007 ................................................................................. 2664
NEW-CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Post 2010 ........................................................................................................ 2665
NEW-CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Pre 2010.......................................................................................................... 2666
CHARTS Labor Force Participation Rate versus Food Stamp Participants .......................................................................................... 2666
CHARTS World Youth Unemployment A Crisis .................................................................................................................................. 2666
CHARTS Change in Civilian Employment since December 2007 ......................................................................................................... 2667
CHARTS Total Foreign-Born versus Native-Born Workers since Dec 2007 ......................................................................................... 2668
CHARTS Manufacturers versus Waiter/Bartenders Since 2007 ............................................................................................................ 2669
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2670
NEW-EMPLOYMENT The "Restaurant Recovery" Is Over: Casual Dining Sales Tumble For Fourth Straight Month ......................... 2670
REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2673
CHARTS & TABLES ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2673
NEW-CHARTS Wages as a percentage of GDP have been falling for decades ................................................................................... 2673
NEW-CHARTS Middle class wealth is based not in stocks but in the family home ............................................................................... 2673
NEW-CHARTS Inflation-adjusted household income has dropped back to levels first reached in the 1980s ...................................... 2675
NEW-CHARTS Wages have declined regardless of educational attainment ........................................................................................ 2675
NEW-CHARTS US Productivity versus Wage Growth 1947-Now ...................................................................................................... 2676
NEW-CHARTS US Productivity versus Non-Supervisory Compensation 1947-Now ......................................................................... 2676
NEW-CHARTS Productivity has been slipping since around 2003: Alan Greenspan:"Productivity is dead ........................................ 2677
NEW-CHARTS Middle class household wealth has absolutely cratered since the top of the housing bubble in 2007 ........................ 2677
NEW-CHARTS Income gains have all flowed to the top 10% ............................................................................................................... 2678
NEW-CHARTS Higher education and healthcare have exploded higher .............................................................................................. 2680
CHARTS Average Hourly Earnings of all Employees Total Private .................................................................................................... 2681
CHARTS Individuals Annually Receiving Foods Stamps ....................................................................................................................... 2681
CHARTS Homeless among Students is Growing .................................................................................................................................. 2682
CHARTS Stagnant Middle Class Wages ................................................................................................................................................ 2682
CHARTS Median Earnings by Sex ......................................................................................................................................................... 2683
CHARTS Disconnect Between Productivity and Typical Workers Compensation 1948-2014 ........................................................... 2684
CHARTS Unemployment Rate is close to 24% according to Shadow Stats ......................................................................................... 2685
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls less HES Complex ................................................................................................................................... 2685
CHARTS Childcare Costs Surge Past Rent, Tuition in Most of US ....................................................................................................... 2686
CHARTS Illinois the Biggest User of Food Stamps in Mid-West ........................................................................................................... 2687
CHARTS Illinois has Regained Few Manufacturing Jobs Since the Great Recession .......................................................................... 2687
CHARTS Food Stamps Outpace Manufacturing Jobs 25-1 in Illinois .................................................................................................... 2687
CHARTS Debt by Generation ................................................................................................................................................................. 2688
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2690
DI What Killed The US Middle Class? .................................................................................................................................................... 2690
US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2699
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2699
NEW-POLICY Renter versus Owner Occupied Housing Units Since 1996..................................................................................... 2699
NEW-POLICY Home prices are floating out of reach for average wage earners ........................................................................... 2699
NEW-POLICY US Home Price Growth versus Wage Growth ........................................................................................................... 2700
NEW-POLICY Pending Home Sales Falling ........................................................................................................................................ 2700
NEW-POLICY Existing Home Sales M-o-M ......................................................................................................................................... 2701
MARCH 2016 Edition

28

NEW-POLICY Pending Home Sales Falling ........................................................................................................................................ 2701

NEW-POLICY New Home Sales Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................................................. 2702
NEW-POLICY Total New Home Sales vs Median New Home Sales Prices ..................................................................................... 2703
POLICY US Cities with Highest Median Prices of Single-Family Homes........................................................................................ 2704
POLICY NAHB Sentiment Much Higher than Permits and Starts? .................................................................................................. 2704
POLICY Flattenening NAHB Sentiment .............................................................................................................................................. 2705
POLICY New Homes Sales versus Ave Wage Grow Y-0-Y versus MBA 30Y rate versus Real Median Inc ................................ 2706
POLICY Mortgage Purchase Application Index versus Fed Balance Sheet ................................................................................... 2707
POLICY Total News Home Sales v Median New Home Sale Price .................................................................................................. 2708
POLICY San Francisco Y/Y Price Increase Indicator ........................................................................................................................ 2708
POLICY Meaningful Housing Recovery On Hold Until Spring ......................................................................................................... 2710
POLICY Housing Starts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2710
POLICY Existing & New Home Sales .................................................................................................................................................. 2711
POLICY Home Ownership Rate versus Rental Rate ......................................................................................................................... 2711
POLICY Mortgages Past Due and Foreclosure Starts ................................................................................................................... 2712
POLICY Mortgage Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 2712
POLICY Lumber Sales .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2713
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2716
NEW-RESIDENTIAL Housing Will Support, Not Lead, U.S. Growth This Time .............................................................................. 2716
NEW-RESIDENTIAL For the Average American, Owning A Home Is Increasingly Unaffordable ................................................ 2718
NEW-RESIDENTIAL New Home Sales Plunge Most Since June 2014 ............................................................................................. 2721
NEW-RESIDENTIAL Existing Home Sales Crash Most In 6 Years: NAR Blames Slowing Economy, Bubbly Home Prices ..... 2723
US COMMERCIAL RETAIL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................................................... 2727
CHARTS Vacancy Rate - Indoor Malls versus Strip Malls ..................................................................................................................... 2727
CHARTS McDonalds Global Sales Fall 2.5% - 35,000 Franchise Operators In Trouble...................................................................... 2727
CHARTS McDonalds US Same Store Sales Down ~4% Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................ 2728
CHARTS Top US Franchise Defaulters ................................................................................................................................................. 2728
CHARTS Online Retailers Beginning to Dominate Worlds Largest Retailers by Market Cap .............................................................. 2729
CHARTS Shippers Being Squeezed By Online Retailers ...................................................................................................................... 2730
CHARTS Consumer Discretionary Underperforming Consumer Staples Signs of Increasing Squeeze ............................................ 2730
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales Trend ............................................................................................................................................ 2731
CHARTS US Retail Sales Ex-Auto & Parts ............................................................................................................................................ 2732
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex-Auto Adjusted for Inflation & Population Growth .......................................................................................... 2733
CHARTS Retail Space Opened Pre-2008 versus Current Rate ............................................................................................................ 2734
CHARTS CMBS Recovered Somewhat but Malls In Trouble ................................................................................................................ 2734
CHARTS Department Store Sales Continue to Erode ........................................................................................................................... 2735
SPECIAL FOCUS US RECESSION RUMBLINGS .............................................................................................................. 2736

US RECESSION RUMBLINGS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2736
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2737
NEW-RECESSION Recession Risks Rising as Profits Fall By Most Since 2008 .................................................................................. 2737
NEW-RECESSION Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................... 2738
NEW-RECESSION Markit Composite PMI and US GDP ...................................................................................................................... 2738
NEW-RECESSION A US Recession is now a VERY Likely Outcome! ................................................................................................. 2739
NEW-RECESSION Manufacturing Indicators & Industrial Production In Recession Territory ............................................................. 2740
NEW-RECESSION The Real Employment Economic Picture & Recessionary Driver ......................................................................... 2740
NEW-RECESSION Inflation Creeping Into Recessionary Statistics ..................................................................................................... 2741
NEW-RECESSION 15-month Continuous Y-o-Y drop in Factory orders Historically Has Signaled A Recession for 60 Years ........... 2742
NEW-RECESSION Productivity Slows As Recoveries Age (Y-o-Y%) ................................................................................................... 2742
NEW-RECESSION St.Louis Recession Probability ............................................................................................................................... 2743
NEW-RECESSION Recession Probability Based on Probit Model ....................................................................................................... 2743
NEW-RECESSION Recession Probability The Economic Output Composite Index .......................................................................... 2744
NEW-RECESSION Recession Probability HY Spreads Have not Traded at Current Levels Outside a US Recession .................... 2744
NEW-RECESSION Recession Probability Market Sentiment Can Become A Driver of Recessions ................................................ 2745
NEW-RECESSION Recession Probability Inflation tends to Rise Into and During a Recession ....................................................... 2745
NEW-RECESSION Wholesale Inventories -to - Sales ........................................................................................................................... 2746
NEW-RECESSION Industrial Production Is Rolling Over ...................................................................................................................... 2746
NEW-RECESSION US Recession Probabilities .................................................................................................................................... 2748
RECESSION We are already in a US GDP Recession ......................................................................................................................... 2748
RECESSION HY Close to 2001 Recession Levels ................................................................................................................................ 2749
RECESSION US Recession Cycle Suggests Economic & Earnings Cycle May Be Close To Ending......................................... 2750
RECESSION US Recession Cycle Suggests Cycle May Be Close To Ending ............................................................................... 2750
RECESSION Current Economic Cycle Is Getting Old In The Tooth ............................................................................................ 2751
RECESSION Average Monthly Job Growth Deteriorating ..................................................................................................................... 2751
RECESSION Annual Percent Change In Real GDP .............................................................................................................................. 2752
RECESSION US Manufacturing Sector Recession ............................................................................................................................... 2752
RECESSION Large Profit Margin Declines Coincides With Recessions ............................................................................................... 2753
RECESSION Buybacks Drop on Reduced Free Cash Flow Drop Compared to Previous Recession ............................................... 2753
RECESSION Annual % Change in 12Mo Forward EPS Expectations Turn Negative .......................................................................... 2754
RECESSION US Recession Estimates Pop .......................................................................................................................................... 2754
RECESSION US Recession Indicator & Relative Performance of Stocks & Bonds.............................................................................. 2755
RECESSION Real S&P 500 Index with Historical Recessions .............................................................................................................. 2755
RECESSION September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ........................................................................................................ 2756
RECESSION Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) ............................................................................................ 2756
RECESSION Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates .................................................................................. 2757
MARCH 2016 Edition

29

RECESSION Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 .......................................................................................... 2757
RECESSION Global Oil Consumption Leads Economic Growth Trend is Down Global Headwinds .............................................. 2758
RECESSION Gross Domestic Income versus Wilshire 5000 Tells the Story ..................................................................................... 2759
RECESSION CT 2015 Revenue Recession .......................................................................................................................................... 2759
RECESSION Q2 2015 Revenue Recession .......................................................................................................................................... 2760
RECESSION 4 Consecutive months of y/y Spending Declines ............................................................................................................. 2760
RECESSION BOA: Retail sales ex-autos, plunged 0.8% mom seasonally adjusted.......................................................................... 2761
RECESSION Top 10 US Market Areas Signal Retail Problem Underway ............................................................................................ 2761
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories to Sales Spiking To Areas Seen During Recession Trends ....................................................... 2762
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories Less Wholesale Sales ................................................................................................................. 2763
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories vs GDP Trends ............................................................................................................................ 2763
RECESSION Auto Inventories to Sales ................................................................................................................................................. 2764
RECESSION Falling Collateral and Residuals Undermine Real Growth ............................................................................................ 2764
RECESSION Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio versus Recessions ................................................................................................. 2765
RECESSION Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders v Recessions ................................................................................................. 2765
RECESSION Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) versus Recessions ...................................................................... 2766
RECESSION Real Gross Domestic Investment versus Recessions ..................................................................................................... 2766
RECESSION Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP versus Recessions .................................................................. 2767
RECESSION Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand versus Recessions .................................................................................. 2768
RECESSION ISM Composite Index versus Recessions........................................................................................................................ 2769
RECESSION Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production versus Recessions ............................................................................. 2769
RECESSION Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average versus Recessions ................................................................. 2770
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions......................................................................... 2770
RECESSION Major Economic Trends.................................................................................................................................................... 2771
NEW-RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2772
NEW- RECESSION Economists are starting to warn about the risk of a new U.S. recession .............................................................. 2772
NEW- RECESSION Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise ............................................................... 2775
RECESSION Retail Sales Slump on Deck ............................................................................................................................................. 2777
RECESSION This Is another "Subprime" Waiting To Blow ................................................................................................................... 2780
RECESSION Record Gap between US Inventories and Sales Screams Recession ............................................................................ 2783
RECESSION August spending was the weakest in nominal dollar terms since 2012 ........................................................................... 2785
RECESSION The Next Recession Will Definitely Not Happen In 2018 ................................................................................................. 2790
MARCH 2016 Edition

30

MONTHLY PROCESS OF ABSTRACTION

The Global Macro Tipping Points (GMTP) Service is an integral part of our monthly Process of Abstraction research
methodology. The process starts monthly with the Tipping Points and completes with a final Synthesis. The
sequence is optimized to align with the established Macro Economic Data releases.
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
4th Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Monday following
2tnd Saturday of the
Month
Tuesday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Global Macro Tipping Points

(GMTP)
Market Analytics & Technical

Analysis (MTA)
Monthly Market Commentary

(MMC)
MARCH 2016 Edition

31
Focus


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CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION

GLOBAL MACRO & TIPPING POINTS

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - MARCH 2016

1 MARCH 2016 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING!

GLOBAL RISK ......................................................................................................................................... 32

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

Global Conflict & Protest Intensity ............................................................................................................................................................... 173

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 234

GEO-POLITICAL RISK TENSIONS & CONFLICTS..................................................................................................................... 253

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

YEMEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 309

GEO-POLITICAL RISK GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE......................................................................................................... 379

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 413

GLOBAL MACRO: TIPPING POINTS ...................................................................................................................................... 423

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

NEW-I BOND BUBBLE................................................................................................................................................................................. 430

GLOBAL MACRO: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................ 472

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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GLOBAL MACRO: INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................ 621

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 653

MARCH 2016 Edition

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GLOBAL MACRO: MONETARY POLICY & CENTRAL BANKING .......................................................................................... 745

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 840

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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CHARTS Developed Country Inflation Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 1033

GEO-ECONOMIC INSTABILITIES......................................................................................................................................... 1038

MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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MARCH 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1283

MARCH 2016 Edition

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REGIONAL ........................................................................................................................................... 1456

MARCH 2016 Edition

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