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Nama: Pebri Handoyo

Hari/Tanggal: Senin, 21 Maret 2016

NIM: F34130008

Dosen: Prof.Dr.Ir.Marimin, M.Sc

Tugas Analisis Sistem dan Pengambilan Keputusan


HANDLING UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION CHART (Page 65-67)
Choose the most right answers!
1. Uncertainty in decision making due to them by:
Answer: (a) the uncertainty of the value of the criteria considered.
2. Trees uncertainty can be seen as a flow diagram of dots questions that led to a
decision. In a decision tree, there are two main symbol is a square
symbolizing the decision point and the circle symbolizes:
Answer: (b) The likelihood of occurrence is considered.
3. Decisions contain uncertainty with regard to the status of events or the future
that will come in selecting decision alternatives can be done with the method:
Answer: (d) Method (a, b, and c) can all be used.
4. Decision-making Maximin methods means:
Answer: (a) Priority decision alternatives sorted on the value of the decision
taken on the maximum value of the minimum value of the payoff for each
decision alternative.
5. Decision-making Minimax methods means:
Answer: (c) Priority decision alternatives sorted on the value of the decision
taken on the minimum value of the maximum value of the payoff for each
decision alternative.
Answer with a short explanation!
1. Give decision recommendations using Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret,
Hurwicz and Equal likelihood!

Subcontact
New Facility
Nothing Activity

0,1

0,5

0,4

Low

Medium

High

$ 10

$ 50

$ 90

-$ 120

$ 25

$ 200

$ 20

$ 40

$ 60

Answer:
a

Maximax

Subcontact

: $ 90

New Facility

: $ 200

Nothing Activity

: $ 60

Maximin

Subcontact

: $10

New Facility

: - $120

Nothing Activity

: $20

Minimax Regret
0,1

0,5

0,4

Low

Medium

High

Subcontact

$ 20 - $ 10 = $ 10

$ 50 - $50 = 0

$200 - $ 90 = $110

New Facility

$ 20 (-$ 120) =
$140

$50 - $ 25 = $ 25

$ 200 - $200 = 0

$ 20 - $ 20 = 0

$50 - $ 40 = 10

$200 - $ 60 = 140

Nothing Activity

Hurwicz

Subcontact

: 10(0,1) + 50(0,5) + 90(0,4) = 62

New Facility

: (-120)(0,1) + 25(0,5) + 200(0,4) = 80,5

Nothing Activity

: 20(0,1) + 40(0,5) + 60(0,4) = 46

Equal Likehood

Subcontact

: 10(0,5) + 50(0,5) + 90(0,5) = 75

Anew Facility

: (-120)(0,5) + 25(0,5) + 200(0,5) = 52,5

Nothing Activity : 20(0,5) + 40(0,5) + 60(0,5) = 60

Based on the calculation maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwicz and


Equal Likelihood largest value that appears most frequently is the selection of the
New Facility, to the best possible decisions recommendation is to Build New
Facilities.
2. Make a diagram or decision tree of the analysis, then the analysis to
determine the expected value in every decision in each state of nature. And
how the recommendations?

Answer :
a

Decision Tree

P. Tinggi (0,4)

Keuntungan 233.000
(tidak dengan ekspansi)
Keuntungan 280.000 (dengan
ekspansi)

Small
Facilities
P. Rendah (0,6)
P. Tinggi (0,4)

Keuntungan 200.000
(Tidak dengan ekspansi)

Keuntungan 800.000
Keuntungan 40.000 (tidak
melakukan apa-apa)

Big Facilities
P. Rendah (0,6)

Keuntungan 20.000 (gagal)

Promosi Lokal (0,6)


Keuntungan 220.000
(berhasil)
b

Expectation Value Analysis


EV Alternative Small Facilities: 280.000(0,4) + 200.000(0,6) = 232.000
EV Alternative Big Facilities: 800.000(0,4) + (220.000x0,6)(0,6) = 399.200

Because this is a case of maximizing profits, it is advisable decision is to


choose an alternative Build Large Facility.
3. Matrix pay off from a decision-making system consists of a decision
alternative state of nature and the associated value. How many events in the
state of nature that can be considered?
Answer: There are two possible situations that will occur in the future,
namely economic conditions good and bad economic conditions.
4. Matrix pay off from a decision-making system consists of a decision
alternative state of nature and the associated value. How many alternative
decisions that could be considered?
Answer: There are several alternative decisions that can be selected, namely
expanding the company, the status quo, and selling companies.

5. Explain what is meant the regret on decision making with minimax regret!
Answer: Regret is a regret that occurs if the reality is not the most desired
thing to the real situation actually occurred.

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