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VOL. I S , NO.
I, PEBRUARY 2000
177
I. INTRODUCTION
M. A. Mntas kind J. A. Pqns Lopes are witli INESC, Apartado 4433, 4007
Port" Codex, Portugal and FEUP, Rua dos Rrages, 4000 Parto, Portugal ( c - m t d
mmatos@inescn.pt: jpI@riff.ie.up.pt).
N. D. tlataiargyriou is with Electric Power Systems Lllboratoly, NTUA, 42
Putissian m.. 10682 Athens. Greece (c-mail: nhlpowerece.olua.p~)).
Publisher Item Identifier S 08~5-895U(oo)Ul869-I.
i=l
SCHEME
11. BASICFUZZYCLASSIFICATION
Although already explained in previous papers [l I], [IZ],in
this section wc briefly outline the main steps and features of the
fuzzy classification scheme. These main stages are as follows:
IBEETI<ANSACTIONSON POWER
178
I , P ~ B R U A R Y2000
H. Feature Selectiun
In this phase, each contingency is treated separately and a
reduced set of variables is selected for each one in ordcr to be
used later by the corresponding classification structures. A usual
procedure consists of exploiting the crisp securetinsecure classification provided by the conventional approach and evaluate
for each variable the well-known F i~~easurc
of scparability. If
M h ( S ) and r r h k ( I ) are the mean values of variable k in the secure and insecure classes, respectively, and ck (X) and ck ( / ) are
the corresponding standard deviations, P is defined by expression 13)
, ,
Fk = / % ( S ) - m(1)l
Uh(S)
+ nh(q
(3)
In principle, variables with greater F havc more discriminating power, and are chosen as relevant attributes.
The procedure described below uses the F measure and correhition information (only to avoid data repetitions), but final
selection of the attributes is related to their performance in the
security problem.
a) Calculate the F value for each variable, using ( 3 ) :
b) Calculate correlations betwcen variables with greater P
values. For each set of completely correlated variables,
eliminate all but one; and
c) Use a forward selection technique 011 the remaining variables, by order of (heir F value, to select the relevant
attributes.
C. Classijer Design
Initially a classification structure is obtained for each contingency, using the most relevant attributes identified in the
previous step. Then a fuzzy clustering algorithm is performed,
trying to identify classes in each training set, without using the
or
uih
= 1 and uji: = 0
all j
# k , if dii, = 0
(8b)
MATOS e l ai.:MULTICONTINGENCY STEADY STATE SBCUIUTY EVALUATION USING FUZZY CLUSTERIN0 TECHNIQUES
D. On-line Classification
For a new operating point, use of (8) gives the degrees of
membershio to each class with verv little comuutation cffort.
The new point is then assigned to the class corresponding to
the greatest membership, which means that a nearest prototype
principle is applied.
Note that the use of the whole set of relevant degrecs of
membership gives more information to the operators than a
single crisp classification, namely in critical operating points. It
is also possible to produce synthetic natural language descriptions using linguistic modifiers [14]. Due to space limitations,
this feature is not developed here.
111. GLOBAL
PROCEDURE
A. Overview
179
B. Contingency Selection
This stage aims at reducing the number of critical contingencies to be evaluated explicitly in real-time for a basc case. Contingency ranking methods, expert system techniques exploiting
previous human and analytical knowledge about behavior, and
also neural networks approaches h w e becn used [91, I.101 for
this purpose. The present paper does not address this issue.
C . Global Evaluation of a New Operating Point
+ ur,,,,/Insecure.
(10)
uip z
TI?,
.TI(:
U
GP
?
.
i Z 1 L . C
(11)
pz
The fuzzy classification model described in the previous section addresses only one contingency at a time. A global steady
state security evaluation for a given topological configuration
of the network requires aggregation of results from studies that
cover the most important contingencies.
IV. EXAMPLE
More general classifiers, capable of dealing with different
Next we describe results obtained with a specific topological
network configurations, could possibly he developed using the
of the Hellenic power system, with scven simnconfiguration
same principle. This would require a training set including all
the interesting configurations, which was not done in this paper. lated contingencics.
The global evaluationof anew operating point begins with the
process of contingency selection, proceeds by fuzzy classifying A. Case Study
the new point regarding each one of the contingencies and ends
A realistic model of the Hellenic interconnected power
by producing a final global classification.
system has been used as our study case network. This model
180
Substation
I
Hydro power station
the week, these load classes exhibit 24-hour load curves with
relatively small deviations around average mean values. The following proccdure is used to determine the loading conditions for
the learning set.
R. Of-Line Work
a) Based on nominal 24-hour load curves for residential, inMost part of the work is done off-line. This include training
dustrial, and commercial loads, a composite 24-hour h a d
set generation and classifier design.
curve was determined for each substation of the system.
1 ) Training Set Generation: The Learning Set (LS) for each
b) Assuming that hourly loads of each substation can vary
contingency contains a large nnmber of operating points (OP).
within i10% of their nominal values the composite loa,ds
For each OP the selected contingency is simulated using a coti-
were modified using a random number generator.
strained load flow program and the results are further processed
c) Based on the modified composite load curves of the snbto supply the value of the security indices and the list of the
station a composite 24-hour load curve for the system was
attribute variables. Since it was not possible to acquire a largc
determined.
number of operating states, ii large part of our cffort was cond) The five hours with the largest system loads were selected
centrated in sctting up a realistic LS.
to provide five loading conditions. Each loading contliThe most important input variables in the constrained load
tion is described by the substation hourly loads correflow program are the loads at all PQ buses and the active producsponding to that specific hour. Low load situations are not
tion and the voltage at all PV buses. A classic approach followed
addressed in the present paper, but they could be also irnin modeling loads for practical use is the component based
portant and will be considered in future developments.
method. Accordingly, compositc load models are developed by
e) Steps b, c and d were repeated 80 times resulting
detailed modeling of the distribution feeders. The load at each
400 loading conditions, 284 of which were feasible.
substation can bc considered as the summation of various load
Having determined the load, the real power supplied by each
classes (e.g., residential, industrial, commercial, etc.). As shown generator bus is calculated using approximate participation facby measurements for specific seasonal conditions and days of tors. This information is obtained from an off-line application
MATOS et al.: MULTICONTINGENCY STEADY STATE SECUIIITY EVALUATION USING FUZZY CLUSTERING TECHNIQUBS
TABLE L
GENPRAL
CONTINOENCYDATA
TABIS? IT1
REST CLUSTEI<S POR EACIICONTINGRNCY
(VALIJE OF YHF ADEQIIACYINuBx)
TABLE 11
RELEVANTATTRIBUTE
Line Out
181
TABLE I V
CLUSTER LAUELINO
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
P2
V23
189 or 98
3.46 or 71
of the economic dispatch program and incorporales the operating strategies adopted by the system managers. This means
that thermal units are used to meet the base load while hydro
and diesel units meet the pcaks.
The constrained load flow program used for the contingency evaluation allows the simulation of automatic on-line
tap changing in order to control voltages within specified
limits at the transmission transformers sending and receiving
buses. Thus, once these target voltage limits are specified, the
transformer taps are provided by the program. In addition, thc
program accepts the setting of limits to the reactive power
produced by the generators. A fixed network topology is
assumed in all the studies.
Finally, for each OP the index (2) is calculated for outages
of major transmission lines. The OP are accordingly classified
as secure or insecure depending on whether the Overload index
J ~ 1 . n is respectively smaller or greater than a utility-like defined threshold (for this study) of 550.
In a previous paper [12], the case of voltage limit violations
was also addressed, but it is not treated here to avoid obscuring
the example with overwhelming results.
2) Class@er Design: The general data related to the seven
simulated contingencies is depicted in Table I. Probabilities in
the last column are estimated (not real reliability values).
Analysis with the F measure of separability conducted to the
identification of ranked list of attributes by the greater E values.
After the exclusion of correlated variables, two attributes were
selectedfor each contingency, as shown inTable 11. Experiments
with more than two attributes lead not to better results than the
ones presented in the paper.
Results from clustering with the selected variables for c = 2-6
are displayed in Table 111.
Variables P2, P6 and P7 are injectedpowers in PV buses (hydrostations that usually cover peek load), and V5, V6, V23 and
V31 are precontingency voltages in PV buses.
C. On-Line Work
I ) Partial Classification: Tablc V depicts fuzzy classifications of five example OP (1, 78, 171, 207, and 232) regarding
each of the selccted contingencies.
Note that only the rclevant degrces of membership are included. Classification o l a uew opcrating state regarding a specific contingency is straightforward, using (8).
Calculations are vcry fast, and this classification i s also inore
meaningful than only saying the point is secure. Howevcr, if a
crisp classification is essential, it is always easy to obtain one
by applying the maximum rule to the degrces of mcmbership.
Interpretation of results is easy. For instancc, Take OP 232
(contingency 71) and OP 78 (contingency 8). Thc following
conclusions may he drawn:
I82
TABLE V
TABLE VI1
GLOBALSECUKITY BVALUATIONS FOR EXAMPLE
OF
OP
1
78
Contingency
168
189
3
46
71
8
98
0.99IcZI 1.0/c4 I.O/cZ l.O/cZ I.O/cZ 10.99/c41 I.O/c3
0.85Ic3 10.99/cZ I0.87/c3 I0.99/c3 I l.O/c3 I0.73/c3 I0.86/c2
I
I
TABLE VI
SMCURITY INDtCES FOR EXAMPLE OPERATING POINTS
This means that OP 232 is not completely safe regarding contingency 71 (according to the on-line classifier) and that OP 78
is definitively not secure regarding contingency 8. Other poinls
have almost crisp classifications, which means that they belong
clearly to one of the identified classes.
For comparison purposes, the real values of the J M ~ , , indices
(off-line calculations) are shown in Table VI.
As seen in the table, the fast classifications delivered by
the classifiers agree in general with the conventional time
consuming security indiccs. OP 1 is always very far from the
threshold 550, and is correctly classified in Most or very secure
classes, with a high degree o i membership. The reverse for OP
171, which always violates the threshold by a large margin.
More interesting, however, is OP 207, which is near 550 in
contingencies 168, 189, and 98. In twu of the cases (168 and
98) the point has a fuzzy classification that shows it is in the
border between security and insecurity, Regarding contingency
189, the point is correctly assigned to a secure class, but in
an environment where three very or most secure classes exist,
showing that it is not far from insecurity.
2 ) Globnl Classi$cation: Aggregation of results from the
partial studies, made according to Section 111-C is also not time
consuming. For n c contiugcncies, u~~~~~
and u,~,,, calculations
take between 0 and c . nc sums (typically around n e ) and one
suhtmction; additional calculations for the expected value take
2 nc sums, nc mnltiplications and one division; Worst-case
classification takes only n c comparisons. So, the entire process
is suitable for on-line purposes.
Using the values of Table I (probabilities) and Table V (partial fuzzy classifications), the final results in Table VI1 are ohtained, both for the Worst-case and the Expectcd Value procedures. Note that the Worst-case classification is pessimistic,
which seems essential for security assessment studies. The EV
can be useful to distinguish OP like 171 (ccrtainly insecure)
The approach described in this paper is a complete procedure for a global steady-state security assessment (exccpt contingency selection). A fast way of evaluating the security of a
new state was presented, including aggregation procedures to
draw global conclusions for the selected set of contingencies.
An important issue is the flexibility and increased accuracy
of using more than lwo classcs and natural language synthetic
descriptions for the classification scheme.
Results from a real system of large dimension showed thc
feasibility of the approach for a given topological configuration
of the system. The possibility of extending this methodology to
several system topologies needs to be investigated in the future.
ACKNOWLEDGMENI
The authors would like to thank Dr. M. T. Ponce LeXo, of
INESC, for her collaboration in the clustering studies
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MATOS CI (61.: MULTICONTINGi3NCY STEADY STAT@ SECUIIITY EVALUATION USING FUZZY CLUSTERING TF.CI1NIQUBS
I81
[ I I1 M. A. Matas, N. Haukirgyriou, J. A. Peps Lopes, and G. C. Contanis, N. D. Hatziargyriou (SM) receiveti tile El.Eng., M.Sc., and Ph.D. degrees. He
Fnzq analysis of steady-stiite SCCUrity far On-line assessment, in P r o ~ is ti Professor in the Power Divisiun or thc Electrical Engineering Department
ceedings IEEE/NTUA Athem Power Tech, Athens, 1993, pp. 280-284.
of NTUA. His research interests include inodeling iind digital techniques Tor
[I21 M. A. Matas, N. Hatriargyriau, and J. A. Pepas Lopes, Fuzzy steady power system analysis and control. He is a member of CIGRE and Technical
state security assessmeill, in Proc. lREE/SPT Stockholm Power Tech, Chamber of Greece.
Stockholm, 1995, pp. 635-640.
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model, IBEE Trans. on Fuzzy Syrfemr, vol. 3, no. 3, Aug. 1995.
[15] N.R. Pal iind 1. C. Bezdek, Corrcction to On clnster validity for the
fuzzy c-means model, IEEE Trans. on Fuzzy ,Sysfews, vol. 5, no. I ,
Feb. 1997.
J. A. Pegas Lopes (SM) received the EI.Eng. and Ph.D. degrees in aggregation.
He is tin Assistant Professor in thc Faculty of Engineeriog at the University
M. A. Matas (M) received tlic E1.Eng. and P1i.D. dcgreer in Aggregation. He is of Porto, Portugal. He is dno an Assistant Coordinator of the Power Systems
an Associate Pmfcssor in the Faculty of Enginccring at the University of POITO, Unit at INESC. His research interests are powcr system security assessment
Portugal, iindtheCoordin~t~rufthcPower
SystemsUnitatINESC. His research and disperscd generation system analysis. He is a member of several CIGRE
interests include fuzzy modeling of power systems and decision-aid methods.
Task-Forces.