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Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils

of northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change scenarios
ARTICLE MARCH 2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013GB004746

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Global Biogeochemical Cycles
RESEARCH ARTICLE
10.1002/2013GB004746
Key Points:
The RothC model is suitable for
SOC simulation in upland soil in
Northern China
The climate change did not signicantly affect annual rate of SOC change
Inorganic fertilizer intensive farming
need organic carbon inputs for SOC kept

Supporting Information:
Readme
Table S1
Table S2
Table S3
Figure S1
Figure S2
Figure S3
Correspondence to:
M. Xu and D. V. Murphy,
mgxu@caas.ac.cn;
daniel.murphy@uwa.edu.au

Citation:
Jiang, G., et al. (2014), Soil organic
carbon sequestration in upland soils of
northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change
scenarios, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 28,
319333, doi:10.1002/2013GB004746.
Received 25 SEP 2013
Accepted 25 FEB 2014
Accepted article online 3 MAR 2014
Published online 26 MAR 2014

Soil organic carbon sequestration in upland soils

of northern China under variable fertilizer
management and climate change scenarios
Guiying Jiang1, Minggang Xu1, Xinhua He1,2, Wenju Zhang1, Shaomin Huang3, Xueyun Yang4,
Hua Liu5, Chang Peng6, Yasuhito Shirato7, Toshichika Iizumi7, Jinzhou Wang1, and Daniel V. Murphy1,8
1
Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Crop Nutrition and Fertilization, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional
Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China, 2School of Plant Biology, University of Western
Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia, 3Institute of Plant Nutrition and Resources Environment, Henan Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China, 4College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University,
Yangling, China, 5Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi, China, 6Northeast
Agricultural Research Center of China, Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun, China, 7National Institute for
Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan, 8Soil Biology and Molecular Ecology Group, School of Earth and
Environment, Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia

Abstract We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long-term eld
trials that represent major soil types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil carbon and general
circulation models were validated using these eld trial data sets. We then applied these models to predict
future change in SOC stocks to 2100 using two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1%
year 1 NPP increase). The conversion rate of plant residues to SOC was higher in single-cropping sites than in
double-cropping sites. The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential indicated that these soils will be a
net source of carbon dioxide (CO2) under no fertilizer inputs. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the
additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in parts of
northern China. Manure or straw application could however improve the SOC sequestration potential at all
sites. The SOC sequestration potential in northern China was estimated to be 4.3 to 18.2 t C ha 1 by 2100. The
effect of projected climate change on the annual rate of SOC change did not differ signicantly between climate
scenarios. The average annual rate of SOC change under current and increased NPP scenarios (at 850 ppm CO2)
was approximately 0.136 t C ha 1 yr 1 in northern China. These ndings highlight the need to maintain, and
where possible increase, organic carbon inputs into these farming systems which are rapidly becoming
inorganic fertilizer intensive.
1. Introduction
Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in agricultural soil is directly affected by anthropogenic activities
and climate change; both can alter net primary production (NPP) and organic matter decomposition
[Yan et al., 2010]. Carbon inputs to soil can be increased in arable farming systems where (i) crop
production has not yet achieved maximum water use efciency and/or where irrigation is available,
(ii) nutrient limitations are overcome with fertilizers, and (iii) where additional organic sources are applied;
potentially converting agricultural soil into a net carbon store. The capacity for further SOC sequestration
in agricultural soils is estimated at 140 to 170 Pg C [Lal, 2004], which is more than 10% of the existing
global terrestrial SOC store. As such the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC, 2007a] has
identied SOC sequestration as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly option to mitigate increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
China has more than 20% of the world population and 8% of the total world arable land [Food and Agriculture
Organization, 2010]. Agriculture was responsible for 15 to 18% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in China
during 2007; with contributions from agricultural land being 43 to 47% from methane (CH4), 33 to 34% from
nitrous oxide (N2O) and 19 to 23% from CO2 [Guo and Zhou, 2007; Lin et al., 2012]. Crop production is the
major land use occupying an area of 122 million ha [National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2012] and accounts
for 7 to 12% of the SOC stock under arable production systems worldwide [Schlesinger, 1999]. Furthermore,
additions of organic waste to agricultural soil have occurred for thousands of years (e.g., Loessial soil) in China,

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Global Biogeochemical Cycles

10.1002/2013GB004746

Figure 1. Location of the eight long-term experimental sites in upland soils of northern China.

aiding the stabilization of SOC [Liang et al., 2012; Zhao et al., 2008]. However, China is currently the largest
consumer of inorganic fertilizer in the world, accounting for 90% of the global increase in use [Liu and
Diamond, 2005]. Through increased inorganic fertilizer use, adoption of modern plant cultivars and increased
areas of irrigation, crop grain yields in China have approximately doubled between 1980 (wheat 1.9 t ha 1,
maize 3.1 t ha 1) and 2010 (wheat 4.7 t ha 1, maize 5.4 t ha 1) [National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2012].
However, during this 30 year period SOC stocks in agricultural systems employing common management
practices (i.e., tillage, inorganic fertilizers, straw removal, and no animal manure application) have only
changed slightly; with a general decrease in arid/semiarid regions and increase in humid/semihumid
regions [Sun et al., 2010; Yan et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2009]. Reported SOC changes in agricultural soils vary
( 2.0 to 0.6% yr 1) [Yan et al., 2010] with an average SOC sequestration rate of 21.9 Tg C yr 1 between 1980
and 2000 [Sun et al., 2010]; equivalent to 0.21% of the estimated 10,070 Tg C stored in upland soils in China
[Xie et al., 2007].
A change in crop growth will alter the carbon input to soil from plant residues, which is typically the main
source of new SOC in arable land (unless manure is applied). Net primary production (NPP) is affected by
climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2, and the length of crop growth period
[Ye et al., 2013]. It is reported that the yields of wheat and maize have responded negatively to warming at the
global scale, although the impact on other crops (e.g., rice) is less certain [Lobell and Field, 2008]. Wan et al.
[2011] modeled future changes in SOC stocks for upland soils in China based on historical plant carbon input
rates without consideration of manure or straw application. They predicted that SOC would decrease in most
upland soils, especially in northern China. No consideration was given in their future predictions to increases
in NPP based upon improved plant breeding and/or adoption of best practice agronomic management. It is
expected that the rate of straw retention in China could increase from 40% [Gao et al., 2002] to 90% [Sun et al.,
2010], and that no-tillage practices could be extended to 50% of the nations cropland by 2050; with organic
manure inputs likely to remain the same (110 Tg C yr 1) [Li et al., 2003]. Based on a historical crop NPP
increase of approximately 12 Tg C yr 1 from 1960 to 1999 [Huang et al., 2007] and a future increase in NPP of
approximately 6 Tg C yr 1, Sun et al. [2010] calculated a further 55% increase in NPP by 2050 for China
(equivalent to a 1% annual NPP increase from 2000 to 2050).
In our study, we measured the historical change in SOC stocks from long-term eld trials for the major soil
types and climatic conditions of northern China and then modeled future changes in SOC stocks using
different climate and carbon input scenarios. We wanted to quantify the difference in current SOC
sequestration rates when organic residues are added to soils compared to common management practice.

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Table 1. Location and Climate at Each of the Experimental Field Trials

Northeast China
Gongzhuling
Northwest China
Urumqi
Zhangye
Pingliang
Yangling
North China
Changping
Zhengzhou
Xuzhou

Location

Climate

Mean Temperature (C)

Precipitation (mm)

Evaporation (mm)

Aridity Index

Cropping System

4330N, 12448E

MT-SH

4.5

525

1400

0.79

SC-M

4358N, 8725E
4358N, 8725E
3516N, 10730E
3417N, 10805E

MT-SA
MT-A
MT-SA
WT-SA

7.7
7.0
8.0
13.0

310
127
540
575

2570
2345
1384
993

0.55
0.19
0.64
0.84

SC-MWW
SC-MWW
SC-MMWWWW
DC-MW

4013N, 11615E
3447N, 11340E
3365N, 11637E

WT-SH
WT-SH
WT-SH

11.0
14.3
14.5

600
632
832

2310
1450
2200

0.65
0.83
1.16

DC-MW
DC-MW
DC-MW

Sites

a
MT = mild
b

temperate; SH = semihumid; SA = semiarid; A = arid; WT = warm temperate.

SC-M = single-cropping, maize; SC-MWW = single-cropping, 1 year maize followed by 2 years wheat; SC-MMWWWW = single-cropping, 2 year maize followed
by 4 years wheat; DC-MW = double-cropping, maize/wheat annually.

We also wanted to determine how climate change would alter SOC stocks and if future SOC stocks could be
increased with inorganic fertilizer alone or if organic residue/manure inputs will be required. Our specic
aims were to (i) measure the historical change in SOC stocks from eight long-term fertilizer trials (1528 years;
treatments of inorganic fertilizers and/or manure/straw application) that represent the major soil types and
climatic conditions of northern China, (ii) use the historical climate and soil data to validate global climate
models and the RothC carbon model for northern China, and (iii) model future changes in SOC stocks to 2100
under two plant carbon input scenarios (no change to NPP or an annual 1% NPP increase).

2. Methods and Materials

2.1. Field Research Sites
Our study consisted of eight long-term (i.e., 1528 years) experimental sites on upland soils in the northern
regions of China (Figure 1). The climate at these sites ranged from arid to semihumid and from mild to
warm temperate. Annual mean temperature ranged from 4.5C in the northeast to 14.5C in the western
central region, annual precipitation ranged from 127 mm in the northwest to 832 mm in the central eastern
region, and evaporation was 1 to 18 times greater than precipitation (Table 1). The annual cropping
rotation was either single or double crops and consisted of various crop sequences of predominately
wheat or maize (Table 1). The four single-cropping trial locations were signicantly cooler (4.58.0C) and
drier (127540 mm) compared to the four double-cropping sites (11.014.5C and 575832 mm) (P < 0.05).
The eld research sites covered the major arable land soil types (Table 2) in northern China: Haplic Calcisol
(Grey Desert soil, Urumqi site), Luvic Phaeozems (Black soil, Gongzhuling site), Anthrosol (Irrigated Desert

Table 2. Initial Soil Physical and Chemical Properties at the Long-Term Experimental Sites
Site

Urumqi

Gongzhuling

Zhangye

Pingliang

Changping

Zhengzhou

Yangling

Xuzhou

Initial year
End year
FAO/UNESCO

1990
2007
Haplic
Calcisol
22,000
2,275
138
1,675
9
57,500
720
8.1
1.25
21

1990
2008
Luvic
Phaeozems
31,416
3,380
314
3,641
55
58,548
376
7.2
1.19
32

1982
2003
Anthrosol

1979
2007
Calcic
Kastanozem
13,520
2,470
143
1,482
19
a
nd
429
8.2
1.30
34

1990
2005
Haplic
Luvisol
22,436
2,022
158
5,056
38
54,668
278
8.7
1.58
10

1990
2008
Calcaric
Cambisol
20,770
2,077
158
2,015
20
52,700
229
8.3
1.55
13

1990
2005
Cumulic
Anthrosol
19,980
2,241
165
1,647
26
59,400
516
8.6
1.35
17

1981
2001
Calcaric
Cambisol
15,750
1,650
a
nd
1,850
30
56,750
158
8.2
1.25
6

Initial SOC (kg C ha )

1
Total N (kg N ha )
1
Available N (kg N ha )
1
Total P (kg P ha )
1
Olsen P (kg P ha )
1
Total K (kg K ha )
1
Available K (kg K ha )
pH
3
Bulk density (g cm )
Clay (%)
a

29,040
1,824
67
1,968
52
a
nd
238
a
nd
1.20
16

nd = no data.

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soil, Zhangye site), Calcic Kastanozem (Dark Lossial soil, Pingliang site), Haplic Luvisol (Brown Fluvo-aquic
soil, Changping site), Calcaric Cambisol (Fluvo-aquic soil, Zhengzhou and Xuzhou sites), and Cumulic
Anthrosol (Lossial soil, Yangling site).
Long-term eld plots (n = 8 for eld trial location, n = 13 for within trial plot replicates) varied in size: 33 m2 at
Zhangye and Xuzhou; approximately 200 m2 at Changping, Yangling, and Pingliang and approximately
400 m2 at Urumqi, Gongzhuling, and Zhengzhou. Inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K)
fertilizers were applied as urea, calcium superphosphate, and potassium chloride, respectively. There were
three fertilizer treatments common to each eld trial: no fertilizer (Control), inorganic fertilizer only (NP or
NPK), and inorganic fertilizer plus manure (M) addition (NP + M or NPK + M). In addition, one additional
fertilizer treatment was sampled depending on the site: manure only (M) at Zhangye and Xuzhou, and
inorganic fertilizer plus straw (S) return (NP + S or NPK + S) at the other six sites. The total N applied
(inorganic + organic) was equal for the NPK and NPK + M treatments at ve sites but was higher in the
NPK + M treatment at Zhangye, Pingliang, and Xuzhou due to an additional manure N application (Table S1 in
the supporting information). For the NP + M and NPK + M treatments 30% of the total N was from the
inorganic fertilizer, while the remainder was organic manure N.
Organic carbon input into soil included plant residues (plant roots + stubble) plus any treatment addition of
organic manure or crop straw return. The average annual carbon inputs from manure, straw, and plant
residues at each site are reported in Table S2. All aboveground biomass (not including stubble) was removed
from the plots at harvest; the straw was returned to plots in the NP + S and NPK + S treatments. The average
C/N ratio of straw was 67/1 for wheat and 50/1 for maize. The carbon input from roots was estimated by the
ratio of belowground biomass to aboveground biomass. Total plant biomass carbon was proportioned to
roots as 30% for wheat and 26% for maize [Li et al., 1994], and we assumed that 75.3% and 85.1% of the total
root biomass were in the surface 20 cm of soil for wheat [Fang et al., 2011; Lu and Xiong, 1991; Ma, 1987; Miao
et al., 1989], and maize [Li et al., 1992; Liu and Song, 2007], respectively. The contribution of carbon input from
stubble was estimated using the ratio of stubble biomass to straw biomass. For wheat we used the average
for fertilized plots of 13.1% and for control plots 18.3%, while for maize we used 3.0% for all plots [Xu et al.,
2006]. To convert plant dry matter into the equivalent amount of carbon, we used the national average
carbon concentrations for wheat (399 g C kg 1) and maize (444 g C kg 1) residues on an oven-dried basis
[NCATS, 1994].
The source of manure changed with local availability (pig, goat, horse, or cattle) and varied with a C/N ratio
between 11/1 and 26/1 (Table S2). Annual carbon inputs from manure ranged from 0.43 to 8.69 t C ha 1 yr 1
depending on the site and application year [Fan et al., 2008; NCATS, 1994; Xu et al., 2006]
Soil tillage was by a mouldboard plow. For single-cropping or double-cropping eld sites tillage occurred
before seeding once or twice a year, respectively. The tillage depth was 25 cm at Gongzhuling, Urumqi, and
Zhengzhou where prior measurements determined that 80% of the straw/manure inputs would remain
within the surface 20 cm of soil, while tillage was to 20 cm at other eld sites where 100% of the straw/
manure inputs remained within this soil depth [Xu et al., 2006].
2.2. Soil Analysis
Composite soil samples (020 cm depth) were randomly collected from each plot at each eld site (n = 510
cores per composite sample; 5 cm in diameter) after harvest but before tillage (i.e., SeptemberOctober). Soil
samples were air dried before being sieved (<2 mm) for soil pH analysis (soil:water = 1:1), and then further
ground (<0.25 mm) for determination of SOC [Walkley and Black, 1934], total N [Black, 1965], total P [Murphy
and Riley, 1962], and total K [Kundsen et al., 1982]. Available N and K were measured following the method of
Lu [2000] and available P (Olsen-P) by the method of Olsen et al. [1954].
The clay content (1634%) in single-cropping sites was higher compared to the double-cropping sites (617%;
Table 2). The initial SOC was also higher in sites with single cropping (5.2413.23 g C kg 1) compared to double
cropping (6.267.10 g C kg 1). Initial soil pH was between 7.2 and 8.7, and there was no signicant change in pH
during the experimental periods (data not shown). Soil Olsen P ranged from 3.4 to 23.3 mg P kg 1 and available
K from 16 to 288 mg K kg 1. Initial nutrient levels at eld sites were low with positive response of plant growth
to inorganic fertilizer application [Shen, 1982].

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2.3. Carbon Model

The climatic data used in the RothC model (RothC-26.3) [Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999] consisted of monthly
mean air temperature (C), precipitation (mm), and open pan evaporation (OPE; mm). Temperature and
precipitation data for each site were collected from the nearest meteorological station of the China Meteorological
Administration. Because the OPE data were unavailable, we calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET)
according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith method [Allen et al., 1998] and
converted the PET to OPE by OPE = PET/0.75 [Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999]. Since the land was irrigated at
Urumqi, Zhangye, Yangling, Changping, Zhengzhou, and Xuzhou, we added summed irrigation water
with precipitation.
Soil input data for modeling were based upon the clay content (%) and the initial SOC content (t C ha 1) for
each trial site. To determine the inert organic matter (IOM) pool for the RothC model we used the equation
IOM = 0.049 SOC1.139 [Falloon et al., 1998]. Management data on monthly soil cover (bare or vegetated)
were obtained from Xu et al. [2006]. In the RothC model the added straw was treated as crop residue and
animal manure as farm yard manure.
In modeling each set of eld trial data, we set the initial SOC value in the RothC model to the measured SOC
content from the initial value of each eld trial treatment plot (Table 2) and then simulated the change in SOC
during the trial period for each set of fertilizer treatments. To run the model, it is necessary to specify the
initial amount of SOC in each of ve dened organic matter pools: Decomposable Plant Material (DPM),
Resistant Plant Material (RPM), Microbial Biomass (BIO), Humied Organic Matter (HUM), and Inert Organic
Matter (IOM). The allocation of SOC among the different pools was unknown for these eld sites. However, as
described by Jenkinson and Coleman [1999] if we assume that the SOC content has reached equilibrium, then
RothC can be run inversely to calculate the amount of carbon that is needed to enter the soil annually to
maintain a specic level of SOC; the allocation of SOC into each of the four organic matter pools is dened at
the same time. This is a standard means by which to parameterize this model to equilibrium; at which point
the relative size of the carbon pools can be dened [see Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999; RRes, 2007]. For plant
residue C inputs we used a DPM: RPM ratio of 1.44 as this is a typical value for most agricultural crops and
grasses [Jenkinson and Coleman, 1999]. The average weather data (monthly mean air temperature (C),
precipitation (mm), and open pan evaporation (OPE; mm)) for each trial site from the start year to the end of
the simulation was used in this equilibrium model run.
Once the starting SOC content and its initial allocation among the organic matter pools had been established,
the model was run using carbon inputs according to the different carbon inputs scenarios: (A) from the initial
year to 2010, the carbon inputs were the measured data for each year (Figure 2); (B) after 2010, there are two
scenarios (i) for the current NPP carbon inputs scenario, the carbon inputs were the average values for each
site during the experimental period which are listed in Table S2; (ii) for the 1% annual increase in NPP carbon
inputs scenario, the carbon inputs are based on the values and justication provided in Sun et al. [2010] for a
1% annual increase by the current NPP carbon inputs (see carbon inputs scenarios in detail in paragraph 18).
2.4. General Circulation Models
Two general circulation models (GCMs) were selected: BCCR, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
University of Bergen, Norway, http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-BCCR-BCM2.html and IPSL, the Institute
Pierre Simon Laplace, France, http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-IPSL-CM4.html. These two global change
models represent a range of model characteristics and thus their climates scenarios. The future climate using
BCCR is cold and dry, while the IPSL is warm and wet when compared to historical observations (Table S3).
Both GCMs have been validated for use in China [Li et al., 2011], and we also found good agreement between
models and historical climatic data (19712000) when assessed for the trial sites used in this study (e.g.,
observed versus estimated total net radiation at Urumqi; Figure S3). Here we used extremes in CO2
concentration scenarios of 550 ppm (B1) and 850 ppm (A2) [IPCC, 2007b].
2.5. Climate Change Scenarios and Plant Residue Carbon Input Scenarios
We set ve climate scenarios until the year 2100 for the RothC modeling: no climate change, BCCR GCM
under two CO2 emission scenarios (B1, A2) and the IPSL GCM under two CO2 emission scenarios (B1, A2).
Since the RothC model does not include the crop submodel routine, we set two carbon input scenarios:
(i) current NPP (the average of the eld trial experimental period) and (ii) 1% annual increase in NPP based on
JIANG ET AL.

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Figure 2. The trend of annual plant carbon (C) input to soil at each upland eld site in northern China. Control = no fertilizer;
NPK = inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K); M = manure applied; S = straw returned.

the agricultural productivity improvements proposed by Sun et al. [2010]we extrapolated this NPP scenario
to the year 2100 on the basis that similar further gains in NPP would be made as agricultural practices and
crop breeding continue to make improvements to plant productivity.
2.6. Evaluation of Model Performance and Statistical Analysis
We determined the coefcient of determination (R2) to represent the degree of association between the
modeled and measured data and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) to represent the magnitude of
differences between the modeled and observed values [Smith et al., 1997]. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and
the least signicant difference methods (P < 0.05) were applied to compare treatment and climate effects on
crop yield, organic carbon input, and SOC dynamics. The t test was employed to assess differences in basic
site information, soil properties, crop yield, organic carbon input, and SOC dynamics between single-and
double-cropping sites.

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10.1002/2013GB004746

3. Results
3.1. Grain Yield and Carbon
Inputs Estimation
Average annual grain yield from the
eight long-term eld trials was
4.0 t ha 1 for wheat and 6.3 t ha 1 for
maize. Grain yield in the control plots
was lowest (1.4 t ha 1 yr 1 for wheat
and 3.3 t ha 1 yr 1 for maize) with a
decreasing trend during the 15 to
28 years of eld trials. Under the plots
with fertilization (i.e., NPK, NPK + M, and
NPK + S), the grain yield increased
during the experimental period in 5/8
of the eld trial sites with the
Figure 3. Comparison of the annual rate of SOC change between singleexceptions being at Pingliang,
cropping sites and double-cropping sites under different fertilizer treatChangping, and Xuzhou (Figure S1).
ments from 19791990 to 20012008.
Generally, the grain yield under
NP + M/NPK + M plots was highest, but
there was no signicant difference between NP/NPK, NP + M/NPK + M, and NP + S/NPK + S plots. The additional
manure or straw return had no signicant effect on grain yield compared to inorganic only fertilizer
application (Figure S1). The annual crop yield at double-cropping sites was almost two times that at singlecropping sites (Table S2). Total annual grain yield and total carbon inputs in plots receiving fertilizer (i.e., NPK,
NPK + M, and NPK + S) were signicantly higher than those in the control treatment without fertilization for
both single-cropping and double-cropping sites; there was no signicant difference between fertilizer
treatments (P < 0.05, Table S2).
As reected in the grain yield trend, the lowest carbon inputs were also found in the control plots of both
single-cropped (0.85 t C ha 1 yr 1) and double-cropped (1.63 t C ha 1 yr 1) sites (Table S2). Where inorganic
fertilizer alone was used, the carbon inputs were double that of the control and threefold the control when
manure or straw was also applied (Figure 2). At Changping the trial site contained an additional carbon inputs
from weeds (i.e., 1.0 t C ha 1 season 1 in the control and 0.25 t C ha 1 season 1 for other treatments) which
was accounted for in the carbon inputs budgets.

Table 3. Average Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Stocks at the Initial and Final of the Experimental Trial Period and the RothC
a
Modeled Estimate of the Future Potential for SOC With Current NPP Carbon Input Under a NoClimate Change Scenario
Cropping
Practice

Treatment

Initial SOC at Trial Site

(19791990)

Final SOC at Trial Site

(20012008)
(t C ha

Single-crop
sites

Double-crop
sites

All sites

Modeled SOC in
2100 at Trial Site
1

Future SOC Potential

(20082100)

Control

23.0a

22.6b

17.6b

5.0b

NPK
NPK + M
NPK + S
Control

23.2a
23.3a
22.4a
19.5a

25.6a
34.6a
28.3a
19.0b

31.3ab
54.8a
45.1a
15.5b

5.7ab
20.2a
16.8a
3.5c

NPK
NPK + M
NPK + S
Control
NPK
NPK + M
NPK + S

19.5a
19.5a
20.7a
21.2a
21.3a
21.4a
21.5a

22.0ab
29.4a
27.7a
20.8b
23.8b
32.0a
28.0a

26.5b
45.5a
41.2a
16.5c
28.9b
50.1a
43.1a

4.5bc
16.1a
13.5ab
4.3c
5.1b
18.2a
15.1a

Single-cropping sites: Urumqi, Gongzhuling, Zhangye, and Pingliang; Double-cropping sites, Changping, Zhengzhou,
Yangling, and Xuzhou. Within a cropping practice grouping letters denote signicant differences (P < 0.05).

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Figure 4. Comparison between observed soil organic carbon (SOC) content (020 cm) and RothC modeled values for upland soils in northern China.

3.2. SOC Change in Northern China

The initial SOC content was higher for single-cropping sites (24 t C ha 1) compared to double-cropping sites
(20 t C ha 1; Table 2). After 15 to 28 years, in single-cropping sites, the SOC content in plots with inorganic
fertilizer was signicantly higher than in the control plot without fertilization. The annual carbon inputs was
higher in double-cropping sites (1.6 to 5.7 t C ha 1 yr 1) than single-cropping sites (0.9 to 3.9 t C ha 1 yr 1;

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Figure 5. Relationship between RothC modeled (Mod) and observed (Obs) soil organic carbon (SOC) content at (ah) individual sites and for data from (i) all sites combined. Dashed line is 1:1 relationship (in all sites P < 0.01, denoted by two
asterisks). RMSE = Root-mean-square error.

Table S2), but this was not reected in the annual SOC change, which was greater in single-cropping
compared to double-cropping sites when considered for the same amount of carbon inputs (Figure 3).
The SOC sequestration potential was negative in the control plots, which were a net source of CO2 (Table 3).
However, even when NPK was applied the future SOC sequestration potential (until the year 2100) was
only 4.5 and 5.7 t C ha 1 in double-cropping and single-cropping sites, respectively (Table 3). There was
signicantly higher SOC sequestration potential where inorganic fertilizer was combined with manure
(i.e., 20.2 t C ha 1 in single-cropping sites and 16.1 t C ha 1 in double-cropping sites) or straw (i.e., 16.8 t C ha 1
in single-cropping sites and 13.5 t C ha 1 in double-cropping sites) compared to NPK only plots. Averaged
across all eight sites, the SOC sequestration potential ranged from 4.3 t C ha 1 in the control plots to
18.2 t C ha 1 in NPK + M plots.
3.3. Validation of RothC Model
The RothC model was able to adequately simulate SOC dynamics in all treatment plots (Figure 4) as modeled
SOC values tted well with the observed values (Figure 5). Both the modeled and observed SOC content
showed a declining trend in control plots at most sites. Modeled SOC values were at steady state, or increased
slightly, in plots that received inorganic fertilizer only (NP/NPK) but increased in plots with organic manure
(M, NP/NPK + M, NP/NPK + S). The coefcient of determination (R2) between observed and modeled SOC
contents ranged from 59% to 94% (P < 0.001) with a root-mean-square error of between 1.65% and
3.64% (Figure 5).

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Figure 6. Annual soil organic carbon (SOC) change between 1990 and 2100 under three climate scenarios (n = 6 eld sites)
based upon the average carbon input rate to soil (19902010 data) for each fertilizer treatment where (a and c) total annual
SOC change and (b and d) normalized annual SOC change (per 1 t carbon (for NPK + M treatment including to carbon from
plant residues and manure) input to soil) or where (e and f) the total SOC change and normalized annual SOC change under
increased NPP scenario (1% per year increase of current NPP) under two climate conditions, respectively. The letter on each
bar is the ANOVA results for the comparison among fertilization treatments under different climate conditions (P < 0.05).

3.4. Comparison of the Climate Condition Prediction by GCMs Until 2100

The two GCMs predicted two different climate conditions by the end of 21st century. Compared with the rst
20 years of the experiment, the average annual mean temperature (AMT) during the years 2080 to 2100 was
predicted to increase at all sites (Table S3). Annual mean temperature increments predicted by the IPSL
model were signicantly higher than those predicted by the BCCR model (P < 0.05). Under both BCCR and
IPSL models, for the highest CO2 emission scenario (i.e., A2), the increment of AMT ranged from 3.8 to 5.5C at
Gongzhuling and from 2.0 to 3.8C at Yangling, which indicated that the colder high-latitude region would
experience a larger change compared to the warmer low-latitude region. There was no clear trend in annual
precipitation (AP) or annual evapotranspiration (AE) between sites or through time.
3.5. The Effect of Climate Change on SOC Change Until 2050 and 2100
First, we predicted the future change in SOC under the ve climate conditions (no climate change, BCCR-B1,
IPSL-B1, BCCR-A2, IPSL-A2) using the existing level of carbon inputs (i.e., current NPP; Figure 6). There was no
signicant difference in either the total annual SOC change or the normalized (i.e., per ton plant carbon

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Figure 7. Comparison of annual soil organic carbon (SOC) change during 20102050 and 20502100 assuming the current
NPP level of carbon (C) input (average of the experiment period) and an increased NPP level C input (1% per year increase
of current NPP) under IPSL-A2 (IPSL = the GCMs model developed by the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France, A2 = 850 ppm
CO2 emission scenario) climate condition. Signicance is marked with one (P < 0.05) or two (P < 0.01) asterisks.

inputs) annual SOC change among the ve climate conditions. Total annual SOC change was in the order:
NPKM > NPKS, NPK > Control (P < 0.05). However, when total annual SOC change was normalized, there was
no signicant difference among the plots that received fertilizer (i.e., NPK, NPK + S, NPK + M, P < 0.05). The
different carbon inputs scenarios showed that under the current NPP scenario the average annual carbon
change from the initial year to 2100 was 0.062 t C ha 1 yr 1 and 0.087 t C ha 1 yr 1 with IPSL-A2 and BCCR-A2
climate conditions, respectively.
With the increased NPP scenario the total SOC sequestration potential from the initial year to 2100 was
23.76 t C ha 1 (ranged from 1.63 to 39.63 t C ha 1 under different fertilization plots) under the BCCR-A2
climate condition, and 20.45 t C ha 1 (ranged from 0.80 to 37.13 t C ha 1 under different fertilization
plots) with the IPSL-A2 climate condition. The relevant total annual SOC change from the initial year to
2100 was 0.211 t C ha 1 yr 1 (ranged from 0.008 to 0.355 t C ha 1 yr 1) and 0.182 t C ha 1 yr 1 (ranged from
0.011 to 0.333 t C ha 1 yr 1) with BCCR-A2 and IPSL-A2 climate conditions, respectively (Figure 6). The
average annual carbon change under current and increased NPP scenarios when using the IPSL-A2 and
BCCR-A2 climate conditions was 0.136 t C ha 1 yr 1.
Since there was no signicant difference in SOC changes between these climate scenarios, we chose the
highest temperature scenario, IPSL-A2, to examine how the different carbon input scenarios would alter SOC
stocks into the future. Three sites are illustrated to represent three regions in northern China: Urumqi for
northwest China, Gongzhuling for northeast China, and Zhengzhou for north China. During the years 2010 to
2050 or 2050 to 2100 the SOC conversation rate was higher under the increased NPP scenario at all three sites
(except at Gongzhuling during 2010 to 2050 when compared to the current NPP scenario; Figure 7). For the
model time period 2010 to 2050 the SOC conversion rate was always higher at Gongzhuling (i.e., the SOC
conversion was 8.9% under the current NPP scenario, and 8.6% under the increased NPP scenario), and
almost double of that at Zhengzhou (i.e., the SOC conversion was 3.9% under current NPP scenario, and 5.9%

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under increased NPP scenario). At the Urumqi site the SOC conversion was 3.6% under the current NPP
scenario and 8.7% under an increased NPP scenario. For the average of these sites, the SOC conversion rate
was lower during 2050 to 2100 (where the SOC conversion was 1.3% under current NPP scenario and 3.1%
under increased NPP scenario) than during 2010 to 2050 when the SOC conversion was 5.4% under current
NPP scenario and 7.0% under the increased NPP scenario. This indicated that the SOC storage potential of
these soils was close to being reached in the later time period at all sites.
Under the IPSL-A2 climate scenario, representing the highest temperature scenario, even with an increased
NPP carbon input scenario, the SOC content decreased in the control plots at all sites except Changping
(Figure S2). Under this climate scenario for the NPK and NPK + S plots, the SOC increased at all sites except
Urumqi, where the SOC decreased gradually. However, for the NPK + M plot the SOC increased at all sites
under this climate scenario.

4. Discussion
The social and economic stability of China largely depends on agricultural development. Cropland in
northern China accounts for 65.8% of the 122 million hectares of total cropland in China [National Bureau of
Statistics of China, 2012]. While inorganic fertilizers have played an important role in feeding the rapidly
growing world population, the application of organic amendments to agricultural elds has declined [Ju
et al., 2005]. The decomposition rate of SOC was shown to be faster when inorganic fertilizer was applied
alone compared to with manure in Loessial soil in northwest China [Liang et al., 2012]. A future consequence
of inorganic fertilizer use without organic amendments in China will be declining SOC stores and increasing
CO2 release under current tillage practices. If China continues to maintain self-sufciency in food production
[Solot, 2006], then arable lands will need to increase productivity without causing loss of soil fertility.
The RothC model was able to accurately predict the SOC dynamics in agricultural upland soil in northern
China. Yang et al. [2003] and Guo et al. [2007] applied the RothC model to upland soils (Black and Fluvo-aquic
soils) in northern China, and both reported that the SOC predicted agreed well with the experimental data
observed in unfertilized plots, in plots with inorganic fertilizers and where inorganic fertilizers were applied in
combination with manure. Our results were consistent with Yang et al. [2003] and Guo et al. [2007], and we
also found that the RothC model was suitable for use in predicting SOC stocks with straw application
(Figures 4 and 5).
Addition of animal manures and return of crop straw are well recognized as positive management options to
improve SOC as illustrated in this study. Farmers have used organic food waste and animal manures to
maintain crop production and soil fertility for thousands of years in China [Yang, 2006]. However, with
inorganic fertilizers currently being widely available, the application on manure to arable land has declined
from 99.9% in 1949 to 25% in 2003 [Huang et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010]. Under the current NPP carbon input
scenario, the annual SOC change for the NPK + M treatment was 0.287 t C ha 1 yr 1 with no climate change,
0.252 t C ha 1 yr 1 assuming BCCR-A2 and 0.219 t C ha 1 yr 1 assuming IPSL-A2 climate conditions until
2100 in northern China. This would mean an additional 17.5 to 23.0 Tg C yr 1 sequestered to the end of this
century if agricultural management practices were to apply NPK + M (without improvement in straw
retention or conservation tillage practices). Assuming the increased NPP carbon input scenario, the SOC
sequestered by 2100 would be 26.7 to 28.5 Tg C yr 1 under BCCR-A2 and IPSL-A2 climate condition,
respectively. However, organic manure is now more commonly applied to vegetable crops than to grain
cropsdata from 200 agrometeorological stations conrmed this practice [Wan et al., 2011] which is unlikely
to change. It should also be recognized that a larger land area is required to grow manure than the input of
soil carbon [Schlesinger, 1999]. Increasing SOC stocks through manure application at one site may result in
depletion of SOC at other. Thus, manure is not likely to yield an environmentally sustainable net sink for
carbon across these large areas of arable land.
Throughout northern China, crop straw was historically used as fuel, animal feed and bedding, or burnt
directly within the eld. Since the 1980s, straw return was popularized by government policy as a practice to
improve soil fertility and decrease air pollution by not burning. The area of agricultural land where straw was
returned varied from 7% to 71% depending on the province; with an average 36.6% of all straw in China used
to improve soil fertility [Gao et al., 2002; Lu et al., 2009]. Under the current NPP carbon input scenario, the

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annual SOC change in northern China until the year 2100 within the NPK + S treatment was 0.162 t C ha 1 yr 1
assuming no climate change (12.6 Tg C yr 1), 0.096 t C ha 1 yr 1 assuming BCCR-A2 (7.7 Tg C yr 1), and
0.064 t C ha 1 yr 1 assuming IPSL-A2 climate conditions (5.1 Tg C yr 1). Compared to NPK only, the return
of straw could sequester an additional 7.2, 3.6, and 2.2 Tg C yr 1 SOC under these three climate conditions
(i.e., no climate change, BCCR-A2, and IPSL-A2, respectively) in northern China by 2100.
In agricultural systems, tillage can be a major cause of SOC change; losses up to 50% of the starting SOC in
surface soils (20 cm) have been observed after cultivation for 30 to 50 years when natural vegetation is
converted to cultivated crops [Post and Kwon, 2000]. Based on the global database of 67 long-term
agricultural experiments, West and Post [2002] found on average that a change from conventional tillage to
no-tillage can sequester 0.57 0.14 t C ha 1 yr 1. In China, Lu et al. [2009] determined that under the current
climate situation that no-tillage can sequester 0.800 Tg C yr 1 (0.039 t C ha 1 yr 1). In our study, all the longterm experimental sites were plowed after harvest; as such we could not measure the effect of no-tillage on
carbon turnover. However, it is reported that the carbon conversion rate is 8% per year in plowed systems
and 10% per year in no-tillage systems [Duiker and Lal, 1999]. We attribute the lower SOC levels in the doublecropping sites in our study to the additional tillage each year associated with the planting of the second crop
along with the higher soil temperatures at these sitesboth tillage and temperature are likely to have increased
organic matter decomposition rates [Zhang et al., 2010]. Assuming that organic manure inputs remain the same
[Li et al., 2003] but that straw retention in China does increase [Gao et al., 2002; Sun et al., 2010], and that
no-tillage practices can be extended Sun et al. [2010] calculated a further 1% annual NPP increase from
2000 to 2050. Based on these improved agricultural management practices, this rate of increase in NPP
would result in an annual SOC changes of 0.002 under the control plot to 0.284 t C ha 1 yr 1 under the
NPK + M plot (a SOC conversion rate of 7.0%) until 2050 and a further 0.024 t C ha 1 yr 1 under the control
to 0.209 t C ha 1 yr 1 under the NPK + M treatment (a SOC conversion rate of 3.1%) until 2100, assuming
the IPSL-A2 climate condition scenario. This is equivalent to an additional 0.33 Tg C yr 1 until 2050 and
0.98 Tg C yr 1 until 2100 of SOC sequestered compared to a no change in NPP scenario.

5. Conclusion
The prediction of future SOC sequestration potential demonstrated that under no fertilizer input, these soils
would be a net source of CO2 in most parts of northern China. Even when inorganic nutrients were applied, the
additional carbon input from increased plant residues could not meet the depletion of SOC in the northwest
sites. Manure or straw application could improve the carbon sequestration at all sites, with straw being a more
likely option into the future. The future SOC sequestration potential in northern China was 4.3 to 18.2 t C ha 1
by 2100 under current carbon input and existing climate conditions. The effect of climate change on the annual
rate of SOC change did not differ signicantly between the ve climate scenarios; under the higher CO2 emission
scenario (i.e., A2) 8.1 t C ha 1 (0.062 t C ha 1 yr 1) and 10.7 t C ha 1 (0.087 t C ha 1 yr 1) will be sequestered
under IPSL-A2 and BCCR-A2, respectively, with the current NPP C input scenario. Under the increased NPP C input
scenario, 20.5 t C ha 1 (0.182 t C ha 1 yr 1) and 23.8 t C ha 1 (0.211 t C ha 1 yr 1) would be sequestered in
northern China. This doubling in the potential of future SOC sequestration under an increased NPP scenario
highlights the need to introduce both straw retention and no-tillage practices across the areas of northern China
where this is not commonly practiced.
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge our colleagues for
their unremitting efforts to the longterm experiments, and we are also very
grateful to Wendy Wang, University of
Maryland, USA, and Daniel Richter, Duke
University, USA, for their constructive
comments and suggestions. This
research was nancially supported by
the National Science Foundation of
China (41171239), the National Basic
Research Program (2011CB100501), the
Australian Research Council Future
Fellowship Scheme (FT110100246), and
a Chinese High-End Foreign Experts
Visiting Professorship.

JIANG ET AL.

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